TEDSalon London 2010
Martin Jacques: Understanding the rise of China
馬丁‧賈克 (Martin Jacques)：了解中國的崛起
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在倫敦的TED Salon 的演講中，經濟學家馬丁‧賈克問道：“西方國家該如何解讀中國和其非凡的崛起？”這位 "當中國統治世界" 的作者，檢視西方國家之所以對中國的經濟成長力感到迷惑的原因，並提供三個分析的看法，來試著了解現在和未來的中國。
Martin Jacques - Writer, columnist
Martin Jacques is the author of "When China Rules the World," and a columnist for the Guardian and New Statesman. He was a co-founder of the think tank Demos. Full bio
Martin Jacques is the author of "When China Rules the World," and a columnist for the Guardian and New Statesman. He was a co-founder of the think tank Demos. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
The world is changing
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這個世界
00:17
with really remarkable speed.
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正以驚人的速度在改變。
00:20
If you look at the chart at the top here,
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如果你看這張圖表的上方，
00:22
you'll see that in 2025,
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會看到在2025年
00:24
these Goldman Sachs projections
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根據高盛 (Goldman Sachs) 的預測，
00:26
suggest that the Chinese economy
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中國的經濟規模
00:28
will be almost the same size as the American economy.
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將會和美國幾乎相當 。
00:31
And if you look at the chart
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再看看這張圖表，
00:34
for 2050,
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在2050年
00:36
it's projected that the Chinese economy
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中國的經濟規模
00:39
will be twice the size of the American economy,
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將會是美國的兩倍大，
00:42
and the Indian economy will be almost the same size
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而印度的經濟規模
00:44
as the American economy.
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將會和美國不相上下。
00:47
And we should bear in mind here
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我們必須記住的是，
00:49
that these projections were drawn up
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這些預測
00:51
before the Western financial crisis.
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都是在西方金融危機之前制定的。
00:54
A couple of weeks ago,
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大約二週前，
00:56
I was looking at the latest projection
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我在看法國巴黎銀行
00:58
by BNP Paribas
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最新的預測，
01:00
for when China
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他們預測在什麽時候
01:03
will have a larger economy
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中國的經濟規模
01:05
than the United States.
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會超過美國。
01:07
Goldman Sachs projected 2027.
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高盛預測會在2027年。
01:11
The post-crisis projection
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而金融危機後的新預測
01:14
is 2020.
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是2020年。
01:17
That's just a decade away.
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而這只不過十年。
01:19
China is going to change the world
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中國將會在兩個基本面上
01:23
in two fundamental respects.
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改變世界。
01:26
First of all,
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首先，
01:28
it's a huge developing country
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中國是個巨大的發展中國家
01:30
with a population of 1.3 billion people,
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擁有13億人口，
01:34
which has been growing for over 30 years
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在過去的30年中
01:37
at around 10 percent a year.
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以每年近10%的速度成長。
01:39
And within a decade,
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在十年內
01:41
it will have the largest economy in the world.
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將會成爲世界最大的經濟體。
01:45
Never before in the modern era
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在現代史上，
01:48
has the largest economy in the world
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過去一向都是已開發國家
01:51
been that of a developing country,
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而從來沒有任何一個發展中國家
01:53
rather than a developed country.
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成爲世界最大的經濟體。
01:57
Secondly,
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其次，
01:59
for the first time in the modern era,
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在現代史上首次
02:01
the dominant country in the world --
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主宰世界的國家
02:03
which I think is what China will become --
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-- 我個人認為將會是中國 --
02:06
will be not from the West
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不會是西方的國家，
02:09
and from very, very different civilizational roots.
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而是來自一個非常不一樣的文明根柢。
02:13
Now, I know it's a widespread assumption in the West
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我知道西方國家普遍有這樣的假設:
02:17
that as countries modernize,
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一個國家的現代化
02:20
they also westernize.
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也就意味著西方化。
02:22
This is an illusion.
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這是個不切實際的說法。
02:24
It's an assumption that modernity
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這樣的假設是簡單的將現代化看做
02:26
is a product simply of competition, markets and technology.
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是由競爭、市場和科技所構成的產物。
02:29
It is not. It is also shaped equally
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而事實並非如此，
02:31
by history and culture.
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現代化也均等的受到歷史和文化的影響。
02:33
China is not like the West,
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中國和西方國家不同，
02:36
and it will not become like the West.
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而且中國也不會變成像西方國家一樣，
02:39
It will remain in very fundamental respects
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中國會持續的保留
02:41
very different.
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他和西方的根本差異。
02:43
Now the big question here is obviously,
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現在最大的問題，很明顯的
02:46
how do we make sense of China?
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就是我們該怎樣來解讀中國？
02:48
How do we try to understand what China is?
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我們該如何試著去了解，中國到底是怎樣的一個國家？
02:50
And the problem we have in the West at the moment, by and large,
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大體上西方現在的問題，
02:53
is that the conventional approach
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在於我們的傳統方法是
02:55
is that we understand it really in Western terms,
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用西方的術語
02:57
using Western ideas.
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和思想來了解中國。
03:00
We can't.
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這是行不通的。
03:02
Now I want to offer you
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現在我想提供
03:04
three building blocks
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三個基本理由，
03:06
for trying to understand what China is like,
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來試著了解中國，
03:09
just as a beginning.
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這只是一個開始。
03:11
The first is this:
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首先，
03:13
that China is not really a nation-state.
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中國不能真正的稱為一個 "國家"。
03:16
Okay, it's called itself a nation-state
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好吧，雖然在近一百年來
03:18
for the last hundred years,
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中國自稱是一個 "國家"，
03:20
but everyone who knows anything about China
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但是任何熟悉中國的人都知道，
03:22
knows it's a lot older than this.
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中國的歷史遠超過一百年。
03:24
This was what China looked like with the victory of the Qin Dynasty
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這是西元前221年中國的地圖，
03:27
in 221 B.C. at the end of the warring-state period --
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秦朝統一天下，結束戰國時期的紛爭，
03:30
the birth of modern China.
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為現代中國的萌芽。
03:32
And you can see it against the boundaries of modern China.
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你們可以看到現代中國的邊界線。
03:35
Or immediately afterward, the Han Dynasty,
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或是秦代之後的漢代，這一張是漢代的地圖，
03:37
still 2,000 years ago.
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它還是兩千年前的地圖。
03:39
And you can see already it occupies
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你們可以看到當時中國已經佔領了
03:41
most of what we now know as Eastern China,
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現在中國東部的大部分。
03:43
which is where the vast majority of Chinese lived then
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這個區域從過去到現在一直是
03:46
and live now.
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絕大多數的中國人居住的地方。
03:48
Now what is extraordinary about this
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是什麼讓它顯得奇特呢?
03:50
is, what gives China its sense of being China,
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關鍵在於是什麼讓中國感到 "身為中國"，
03:53
what gives the Chinese
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是什麼讓中國人覺得做為
03:56
the sense of what it is to be Chinese,
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一個中國人的要素，
03:59
comes not from the last hundred years,
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這不應該從最近的一百年來看，
04:01
not from the nation-state period,
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也不該和西方的歷史一樣
04:03
which is what happened in the West,
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是從有 "國家概念" 的這段時期來看，
04:06
but from the period, if you like,
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而是從兩千年前的
04:08
of the civilization-state.
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(中國) 文明"邦國"就開始了。
04:10
I'm thinking here, for example,
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我正在想的，舉例子來說，
04:13
of customs like ancestral worship,
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譬如，祭拜祖先的習俗、
04:16
of a very distinctive notion of the state,
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對 "國家" 的觀念賦予獨特的定義、
04:19
likewise, a very distinctive notion of the family,
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和這類似地， 賦予"家庭" 獨特的定義、
04:22
social relationships like guanxi,
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社會人際“關係”、
04:24
Confucian values and so on.
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及儒家的倫理價值等等。
04:26
These are all things that come
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這些都是從二千年前
04:28
from the period of the civilization-state.
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就流傳下來的文化。
04:31
In other words, China, unlike the Western states and most countries in the world,
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換句話說，中國和西方國家及世界上大部分的國家不同點，
04:34
is shaped by its sense of civilization,
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在於中國擁有自己獨特的文明
04:37
its existence as a civilization-state,
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以一種文明 "邦國" 的獨特方式存在，
04:39
rather than as a nation-state.
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而非西方的 "國家" 觀念。
04:41
And there's one other thing to add to this, and that is this:
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針對這點我還可以補充説明：
04:44
Of course we know China's big, huge,
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我們都知道，就人口和地理上來說，
04:46
demographically and geographically,
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中國是個極龐大的國家，
04:49
with a population of 1.3 billion people.
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擁有13億人口。
04:52
What we often aren't really aware of
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有一項事實我們經常沒有真正注意到，
04:55
is the fact
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那即是，
04:57
that China is extremely diverse
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中國是個十分多樣性
04:59
and very pluralistic,
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及多元化的國家，
05:01
and in many ways very decentralized.
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在很多方面中央的權力是下放的。
05:03
You can't run a place on this scale simply from Beijing,
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要從北京管理這麽大的地方是不可能的，
05:06
even though we think this to be the case.
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儘管我們習以為常的認為這是事實。
05:09
It's never been the case.
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但事實從來不是如此。
05:13
So this is China, a civilization-state,
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因此，這就是中國，建立在一種文明 "邦國" 架構下的國家，
05:15
rather than a nation-state.
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而非西方概念的 "國家"。
05:17
And what does it mean?
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那麽，這是什麽意思？
05:19
Well, I think it has all sorts of profound implications.
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我認為這有很多深層的意涵。
05:21
I'll give you two quick ones.
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我將簡單的舉兩個例子來說明。
05:23
The first is that
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首先，
05:25
the most important political value for the Chinese
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對中國人來說，最重要的政治價值
05:29
is unity,
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是統一，
05:31
is the maintenance
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是維護
05:33
of Chinese civilization.
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中華文明。
05:35
You know, 2,000 years ago, Europe:
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大家都知道，2000年前歐洲
05:38
breakdown -- the fragmentation of the Holy Roman Empire.
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因羅馬帝國的瓦解而分崩離析。
05:41
It divided, and it's remained divided ever since.
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從那時候開始就一直維持著分裂的狀態。
05:44
China, over the same time period,
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但相較之下，中國確在同一時期
05:46
went in exactly the opposite direction,
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走向正好相反的統一道路，
05:48
very painfully holding this huge civilization,
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費盡精神氣力以維護其龐大的文明，
05:51
civilization-state, together.
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並維繫該文明 "邦國" 的統一。
05:54
The second
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其次
05:56
is maybe more prosaic,
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是香港的議題，可能相對地
05:58
which is Hong Kong.
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沒有那麼突出。
06:00
Do you remember the handover of Hong Kong
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大家都還記得香港
06:03
by Britain to China in 1997?
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在1997年從英國的手上回歸中國？
06:05
You may remember
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大家也可能還記得
06:07
what the Chinese constitutional proposition was.
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當時中國的憲法議案為：
06:09
One country, two systems.
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一國兩制。
06:11
And I'll lay a wager
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我敢打賭
06:13
that barely anyone in the West believed them.
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當時西方國家大概沒有人會相信這樣的政策。
06:15
"Window dressing.
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『認為只是裝飾門面，
06:17
When China gets its hands on Hong Kong,
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等中國真的接收香港後，
06:19
that won't be the case."
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不可能會實施一國兩制。』
06:21
Thirteen years on,
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13年後的今天
06:23
the political and legal system in Hong Kong
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香港的政治和法律制度
06:25
is as different now as it was in 1997.
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還是如同1997年一樣，跟中國的不同。
06:28
We were wrong. Why were we wrong?
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我們錯了，這是爲什麽？
06:31
We were wrong because we thought, naturally enough,
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我們錯了，因爲我們自然而然地
06:34
in nation-state ways.
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將中國套上西方概念的 "國家" 方式。
06:36
Think of German unification, 1990.
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回想一下，1990年東西德的統一。
06:38
What happened?
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發生什麼事呢？
06:40
Well, basically the East was swallowed by the West.
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基本上東德被西德併吞了。
06:42
One nation, one system.
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一個國家，一個體制。
06:44
That is the nation-state mentality.
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這是西方的國家概念心態。
06:47
But you can't run a country like China,
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但是你不能用西方的國家概念，
06:50
a civilization-state,
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以單一文明及單一體制為基礎，
06:52
on the basis of one civilization, one system.
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來治理像中國這樣以 "文明邦國"為架構的國家。
06:55
It doesn't work.
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這是行不通的。
06:57
So actually the response of China
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因此，中國
07:00
to the question of Hong Kong --
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對香港議題的回應
07:02
as it will be to the question of Taiwan --
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也將可以套用在臺灣的議題，
07:04
was a natural response:
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很自然地回應，那即是：
07:06
one civilization, many systems.
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單一文明，多元體制。
07:09
Let me offer you another building block
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現在讓我再提供另外一個觀點，
07:11
to try and understand China --
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以試著來了解中國，
07:13
maybe not sort of a comfortable one.
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這個觀點也許不那麼令人怡悅。
07:16
The Chinese have a very, very different
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中國人對民族的觀念
07:18
conception of race
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跟其他大部分的國家比起來
07:20
to most other countries.
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有極大的差別。
07:23
Do you know,
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你知道嗎?
07:25
of the 1.3 billion Chinese,
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在13億中國人裏
07:28
over 90 percent of them
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有90%以上的人
07:30
think they belong to the same race,
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都認爲自己是屬於同一民族──
07:33
the Han?
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漢族。
07:35
Now, this is completely different
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這跟世界上
07:37
from the world's [other] most populous countries.
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其他人口衆多的國家是完全不一樣的，
07:40
India, the United States,
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例如印度、美國
07:42
Indonesia, Brazil --
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印尼、巴西，
07:45
all of them are multiracial.
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這些國家都是多種族的
07:48
The Chinese don't feel like that.
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中國人自己不認爲如此。
07:51
China is only multiracial
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若勉爲其難地稱中國是個多種族國家，
07:53
really at the margins.
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那也就是在邊緣的那些少數民族。
07:56
So the question is, why?
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因此，我們要問，爲什麽會這樣呢？
07:58
Well the reason, I think, essentially
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理由很簡單，我認為基本上
08:00
is, again, back to the civilization-state.
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還是回到老話題──中國是一個 "文明邦國"。
08:03
A history of at least 2,000 years,
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中國擁有超過2000年的歷史，
08:06
a history of conquest, occupation,
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其歷史充滿了征服、佔領、
08:08
absorption, assimilation and so on,
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吸收、同化等等，
08:10
led to the process by which,
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在這經年累月的過程，
08:12
over time, this notion of the Han emerged --
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而衍生了漢民族的概念；
08:15
of course, nurtured
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當然，這個概念
08:17
by a growing and very powerful sense
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逐漸地受到強力的文化認同感的
08:20
of cultural identity.
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滋養與增強。
08:23
Now the great advantage of this historical experience
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這段歷史經驗的最大優點
08:26
has been that, without the Han,
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告訴我們，假若沒有漢民族，
08:30
China could never have held together.
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中國是不可能會統一的。
08:32
The Han identity has been the cement
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漢民族一直像是膠合劑一樣
08:35
which has held this country together.
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將整個國家凝聚結合在一起。
08:38
The great disadvantage of it
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然而，這段歷史經驗的最大缺點
08:40
is that the Han have a very weak conception
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就是漢民族對文化差異的觀念
08:42
of cultural difference.
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很微薄。
08:44
They really believe
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漢族真的相信
08:47
in their own superiority,
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自己種族的優越性，
08:49
and they are disrespectful
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同時他們對其它族群
08:51
of those who are not.
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並不尊重。
08:53
Hence their attitude, for example,
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舉他們對待
08:55
to the Uyghurs and to the Tibetans.
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維吾爾人或西藏人的態度為例。
08:59
Or let me give you my third building block,
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或是讓我來提出第三個理由──
09:01
the Chinese state.
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中國式的國家。
09:03
Now the relationship
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現在，在中國，
09:05
between the state and society in China
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國家和社會的關係
09:08
is very different from that in the West.
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跟西方國家有極大的差異。
09:12
Now we in the West
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現在我們西方國家
09:14
overwhelmingly seem to think -- in these days at least --
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絕大多數的人似乎會認為，至少在現今，
09:16
that the authority and legitimacy of the state
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國家的權力和合法性
09:20
is a function of democracy.
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是民主的功能。
09:23
The problem with this proposition
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這個論述的問題在於，
09:25
is that the Chinese state
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在中國
09:29
enjoys more legitimacy
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人民享有更多的
09:31
and more authority
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合法性
09:33
amongst the Chinese
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及權力
09:36
than is true
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如跟任何西方國家
09:38
with any Western state.
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相比較。
09:42
And the reason for this
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它的理由
09:44
is because --
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是因為──
09:46
well, there are two reasons, I think.
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我認爲，原因有兩個。
09:48
And it's obviously got nothing to do with democracy,
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而且很明顯地和民主一點關係都沒有，
09:50
because in our terms the Chinese certainly don't have a democracy.
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因為以我們的術語來看，很確定的中國是沒有民主的。
09:53
And the reason for this is,
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原因在於
09:55
firstly, because the state in China
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首先，在中國
09:58
is given a very special --
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國家被賦予一個很特別的──
10:01
it enjoys a very special significance
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享有很特殊的地位，
10:03
as the representative,
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國家同時是中華文明的代表
10:05
the embodiment and the guardian
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及化身，
10:08
of Chinese civilization,
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也是中華文明及 "文明邦國"
10:10
of the civilization-state.
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的捍衛者。
10:13
This is as close as China gets
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它的地位
10:15
to a kind of spiritual role.
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近乎一種精神式的象徵。
10:19
And the second reason is because,
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第二個原因，
10:21
whereas in Europe
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在歐洲
10:23
and North America,
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及北美洲
10:25
the state's power is continuously challenged --
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國家的權力不斷地受到挑戰──
10:28
I mean in the European tradition,
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我指的是歐洲傳統上，
10:30
historically against the church,
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在歷史上受到來自教廷、
10:32
against other sectors of the aristocracy,
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其他派別的貴族
10:34
against merchants and so on --
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及商人等等的挑戰──
10:36
for 1,000 years,
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然而，1000年以來
10:38
the power of the Chinese state
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"國家" 的地位在中國
10:40
has not been challenged.
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從沒被挑戰過。
10:42
It's had no serious rivals.
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中國還沒有強力的對手與之抗衡。
10:46
So you can see
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因此你可以看出，
10:48
that the way in which power has been constructed in China
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中國權力建構的方式
10:52
is very different from our experience
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從我們西方的歷史經驗來看
10:54
in Western history.
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二者是十分迥異的。
10:57
The result, by the way,
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因此，
10:59
is that the Chinese have a very different view of the state.
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中國對 "國家" 的觀念和我們截然不同。
11:04
Whereas we tend to view it as an intruder,
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我們傾向視國家為侵入者、
11:07
a stranger,
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外來者，
11:10
certainly an organ
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而且理所當然的，國家是一個機構，
11:12
whose powers need to be limited
264
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它的權利需要被限制、
11:15
or defined and constrained,
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定義及約束，
11:17
the Chinese don't see the state like that at all.
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然而，中國人對 "國家" 的看法並非如此。
11:19
The Chinese view the state
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在他們的觀念裏，
11:22
as an intimate -- not just as an intimate actually,
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國家和他們是緊密相連的──不僅是普通的親密，
11:25
as a member of the family --
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而是像家族成員一樣的，
11:27
not just in fact as a member of the family,
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而且國家不僅是家族的一員
11:29
but as the head of the family,
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更是家族的
11:31
the patriarch of the family.
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大家長。
11:33
This is the Chinese view of the state --
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這是中國人的國家觀，
11:36
very, very different to ours.
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非常迥異於我們的觀念。
11:38
It's embedded in society in a different kind of way
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中國人的國家與社會連結的模式
11:41
to what is the case
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是有別於
11:43
in the West.
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西方國家的。
11:45
And I would suggest to you that actually what we are dealing with here,
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我想要建議的是，我們現在所要處理的，
11:48
in the Chinese context,
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是以中國為背景的
11:51
is a new kind of paradigm,
280
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一種新的模式，
11:53
which is different from anything
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這跟我們西方國家過去所想的
11:55
we've had to think about in the past.
282
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截然不同。
11:59
Know that China believes in the market and the state.
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知道嗎? 中國相信市場及國家的效用。
12:02
I mean, Adam Smith,
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我的意思是，亞當史密斯
12:04
already writing in the late 18th century, said,
285
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早在18世紀晚期就已經寫道：
12:07
"The Chinese market is larger and more developed
286
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『中國市場比任何歐洲市場
12:09
and more sophisticated
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都還要大，都還要發達
12:11
than anything in Europe."
288
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而且還要複雜。』
12:13
And, apart from the Mao period,
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除了在毛澤東時期外，
12:15
that has remained more or less the case ever since.
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一直到現在亞當斯密的觀點大致是正確的。
12:17
But this is combined
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但這樣的市場
12:19
with an extremely strong and ubiquitous state.
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是因為有一個十分強力的國家為後盾。
12:23
The state is everywhere in China.
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在中國，"國家" 是無所不在的。
12:25
I mean, it's leading firms --
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國家帶領企業的發展，
12:27
many of them are still publicly owned.
295
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很多企業到現在還是國有。
12:30
Private firms, however large they are, like Lenovo,
296
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私人企業再怎麽大，在很多方面
12:33
depend in many ways on state patronage.
297
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還是需要依賴國家的資助，例如聯想電腦。
12:35
Targets for the economy and so on
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經濟成長等目標
12:37
are set by the state.
299
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是由國家設定。
12:39
And the state, of course, its authority flows into lots of other areas --
300
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此外，國家的權力還延伸至其他很多的領域，
12:41
as we are familiar with --
301
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例如我們所熟知的
12:43
with something like the one-child policy.
302
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一胎化政策。
12:45
Moreover, this is a very old state tradition,
303
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再者，這是很悠久的國家傳統了，
12:48
a very old tradition of statecraft.
304
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一項古老傳統的治國權術。
12:50
I mean, if you want an illustration of this,
305
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我的意思是，如果你想要看這樣的例子，
12:53
the Great Wall is one.
306
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那麼萬里長城便是。
12:55
But this is another, this is the Grand Canal,
307
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這裡還有另一個例子──大運河，
12:57
which was constructed in the first instance
308
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大運河的建設
12:59
in the fifth century B.C.
309
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開始於公元前五世紀，
13:01
and was finally completed
310
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2000
最後完峻於
13:03
in the seventh century A.D.
311
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公元七世紀。
13:05
It went for 1,114 miles,
312
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4000
全長1114英里，
13:09
linking Beijing
313
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連接了北京
13:11
with Hangzhou and Shanghai.
314
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杭州和上海。
13:14
So there's a long history
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因此，在中國
13:16
of extraordinary state infrastructural projects
316
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由國家主導的大型基礎建設，
13:19
in China,
317
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已有很長的一段歷史。
13:21
which I suppose helps us to explain what we see today,
318
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這或許可以幫助我們來解釋
13:24
which is something like the Three Gorges Dam
319
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像三峽大壩這樣的建設，
13:26
and many other expressions
320
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或是其他在中國境內
13:28
of state competence
321
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可以展現
13:30
within China.
322
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國家實力的建設。
13:32
So there we have three building blocks
323
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因此，這就是我的三個根本理由
13:35
for trying to understand the difference that is China --
324
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用來試著了解中國和西方的差異：
13:38
the civilization-state,
325
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文明 "邦國"、
13:41
the notion of race
326
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種族的觀念、
13:43
and the nature of the state
327
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和國家的本質
13:45
and its relationship to society.
328
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以及國家和社會的關係。
13:48
And yet we still insist, by and large,
329
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然而，我們西方國家還是十分堅持地
13:51
in thinking that we can understand China
330
816000
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認為我們能了解中國，
13:55
by simply drawing on Western experience,
331
820000
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僅簡單的憑藉西方的經驗，
13:58
looking at it through Western eyes,
332
823000
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用西方的眼光及
14:01
using Western concepts.
333
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概念來看中國。
14:03
If you want to know why
334
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如果你想知道
14:05
we unerringly seem to get China wrong --
335
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爲什麽我們老是誤解中國，
14:08
our predictions about what's going to happen to China are incorrect --
336
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3000
爲什麽我們對中國的預測不準確，
14:11
this is the reason.
337
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原因就在這裡。
14:15
Unfortunately, I think,
338
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很不幸地，
14:17
I have to say that I think
339
842000
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我必須指出，我認爲
14:20
attitude towards China
340
845000
2000
我們對中國的態度
14:22
is that of a kind of little Westerner mentality.
341
847000
3000
是一種小西方人的心態，
14:25
It's kind of arrogant.
342
850000
2000
這是一種高傲的心態。
14:27
It's arrogant in the sense
343
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這種高傲也就是，
14:29
that we think that we are best,
344
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認為我們是最好的，
14:31
and therefore we have the universal measure.
345
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3000
因此我們制定了普世的權衡標準。
14:35
And secondly, it's ignorant.
346
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再來，是無知，
14:37
We refuse to really address
347
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我們拒絕真正地去
14:40
the issue of difference.
348
865000
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處理差異性的問題。
14:42
You know, there's a very interesting passage
349
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在著名的美國歷史學家保羅柯恩 ( Paul Cohen)的書裏，
14:44
in a book by Paul Cohen, the American historian.
350
869000
3000
有一段很有趣的敘述。
14:47
And Paul Cohen argues
351
872000
3000
他表示
14:50
that the West thinks of itself
352
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4000
西方國家認爲自己的文化
14:54
as probably the most cosmopolitan
353
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2000
大概是所有文化中
14:56
of all cultures.
354
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2000
最具有世界性的。
14:58
But it's not.
355
883000
2000
事實並非如此。
15:00
In many ways,
356
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2000
在很多方面
15:02
it's the most parochial,
357
887000
2000
它是最狹隘的，
15:04
because for 200 years,
358
889000
3000
因爲200年以來
15:07
the West has been so dominant in the world
359
892000
3000
西方國家一直在這世界上佔著優勢的地位，
15:10
that it's not really needed
360
895000
2000
以至於他們不需要
15:12
to understand other cultures,
361
897000
3000
去了解其它的文化
15:15
other civilizations.
362
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2000
及文明。
15:17
Because, at the end of the day,
363
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2000
因為，到頭來
15:19
it could, if necessary by force,
364
904000
3000
真的有需要的話，可以用武力征服
15:22
get its own way.
365
907000
2000
而達成目的。
15:24
Whereas those cultures --
366
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2000
然而那些文化──
15:26
virtually the rest of the world, in fact,
367
911000
3000
實際上就是西方國家以外的文化，
15:29
which have been in a far weaker position, vis-a-vis the West --
368
914000
3000
相對於西方文化它們一直處於弱勢，
15:32
have been thereby forced to understand the West,
369
917000
3000
也因此被迫去了解西方文化，
15:35
because of the West's presence in those societies.
370
920000
3000
因為西方文化已在那些社會裏產生影響力。
15:38
And therefore, they are, as a result,
371
923000
3000
因此，這些社會反而在很多方面
15:41
more cosmopolitan in many ways than the West.
372
926000
3000
都比西方國家還具有世界性。
15:44
I mean, take the question of East Asia.
373
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2000
以東亞的問題來講，
15:46
East Asia: Japan, Korea, China, etc. --
374
931000
3000
東亞國家如日本、韓國、中國等，
15:49
a third of the world's population lives there.
375
934000
2000
世界上三分之一的人口住在那裏，
15:51
Now the largest economic region in the world.
376
936000
2000
現在是全球最大的經濟區域。
15:53
And I'll tell you now,
377
938000
2000
我現在可以告訴你
15:55
that East Asianers, people from East Asia,
378
940000
2000
東亞地區的人們
15:57
are far more knowledgeable
379
942000
2000
對西方國家的認識，
15:59
about the West
380
944000
2000
遠遠超過
16:01
than the West is about East Asia.
381
946000
4000
西方國家對東亞的認識。
16:05
Now this point is very germane, I'm afraid,
382
950000
3000
恐怕我也必須說
16:08
to the present.
383
953000
2000
這個觀點跟目前的情勢是很切合的。
16:10
Because what's happening? Back to that chart at the beginning,
384
955000
3000
到底怎麼了?再回到開始的
16:13
the Goldman Sachs chart.
385
958000
2000
那張高盛的圖表。
16:15
What is happening
386
960000
2000
以歷史的術語來說
16:17
is that, very rapidly in historical terms,
387
962000
3000
現在正在發生的事很快速地，
16:20
the world is being driven
388
965000
3000
帶領
16:23
and shaped,
389
968000
2000
及影響這世界的，
16:25
not by the old developed countries,
390
970000
2000
不再是過去的已開發國家，
16:27
but by the developing world.
391
972000
2000
而是開發中國家。
16:29
We've seen this
392
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我們已經看到
16:31
in terms of the G20
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G20高峰會
16:33
usurping very rapidly the position of the G7,
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很快地就取代了G7高峰會
16:36
or the G8.
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或G8高峰會的地位。
16:40
And there are two consequences of this.
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這產生了兩項結果：
16:43
First, the West
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首先，西方國家
16:45
is rapidly losing
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對這世界的影響力
16:47
its influence in the world.
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正快速地削弱。
16:49
There was a dramatic illustration of this actually a year ago --
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一年前有一個很戲劇性的例子──
16:52
Copenhagen, climate change conference.
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哥本哈根的世界氣候會議。
16:54
Europe was not at the final negotiating table.
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最後的談判桌上沒有歐洲的份。
16:56
When did that last happen?
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上次歐洲被摒除在談判桌外是什麽時候的事呢？
16:58
I would wager it was probably about 200 years ago.
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我敢說大概是200年以前吧!
17:01
And that is what is going to happen in the future.
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而這也是未來將會發生的事。
17:04
And the second implication
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其次，
17:06
is that the world will inevitably, as a consequence,
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這個世界將無可避免地
17:09
become increasingly unfamiliar to us,
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變得和我們越來越陌生，
17:13
because it'll be shaped by cultures and experiences and histories
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因為這世界將會受到我們所不熟悉的
17:16
that we are not really familiar with,
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文化、經驗及歷史
17:19
or conversant with.
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的影響。
17:21
And at last, I'm afraid -- take Europe;
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最後，我很怕拿歐洲來説，
17:23
America is slightly different --
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美國的情形稍微不一樣，
17:25
but Europeans by and large, I have to say,
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但是我必須說，大體上歐洲人
17:28
are ignorant,
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是無知的，
17:31
are unaware
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他們還沒意識到
17:33
about the way the world is changing.
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世界正在改變的方式。
17:36
Some people -- I've got an English friend in China,
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有些人-- 我有個在中國的英國朋友，
17:39
and he said, "The continent is sleepwalking into oblivion."
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他說：『歐洲大陸正在夢遊逐漸進入沉睡當中。』
17:44
Well, maybe that's true,
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這可能是真的，
17:46
maybe that's an exaggeration.
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也可能誇張了一點。
17:48
But there's another problem which goes along with this --
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但是隨著這個現象而來的另一個問題，
17:51
that Europe is increasingly out of touch with the world --
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就是歐洲已越來越和這個世界脫節，
17:54
and that is a sort of
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這其實也是對未來的
17:57
loss of a sense of the future.
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無所適從。
17:59
I mean, Europe once, of course, once commanded the future
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我的意思是歐洲曾經自信滿滿的
18:02
in its confidence.
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引領未來。
18:04
Take the 19th century, for example.
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譬如說，在19世紀的時候
18:07
But this, alas, is no longer true.
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但是，很可惜地，這已不再是如此。
18:10
If you want to feel the future, if you want to taste the future,
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你若是想要感覺或體會未來會是什麽樣，
18:13
try China -- there's old Confucius.
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你該到中國看看，那兒有孔老夫子。
18:16
This is a railway station
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這是個火車站，
18:18
the likes of which you've never seen before.
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你從沒看過這樣的火車站。
18:20
It doesn't even look like a railway station.
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它甚至看起來還不像火車站。
18:22
This is the new [Wuhan] railway station
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這是新的廣州火車站，
18:24
for the high-speed trains.
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廣州高速鐵路火車站。
18:26
China already has a bigger network
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中國已經擁有全球
18:28
than any other country in the world
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最大的鐵路網路，
18:30
and will soon have more than all the rest of the world put together.
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而且不久就會超過全球鐵路網的總合。
18:34
Or take this: now this is an idea,
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或是這個：這是新的主意，
18:36
but it's an idea to be tried out shortly
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但是，很快的這個主意
18:39
in a suburb of Beijing.
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將會在北京的郊區試驗。
18:41
Here you have a megabus,
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這是一台超級公車，
18:44
on the upper deck carries about 2,000 people.
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上層可乘載約2000人。
18:47
It travels on rails
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它運行在鐵軌上，
18:49
down a suburban road,
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軌道下方是一條往郊區的道路，
18:51
and the cars travel underneath it.
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汽車就在軌道下方穿梭行駛。
18:54
And it does speeds of up to about 100 miles an hour.
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它的時速可以達到100英里。
18:57
Now this is the way things are going to move,
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這是未來發展的趨勢，
19:00
because China has a very specific problem,
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因為中國有個很特殊的問題，
19:02
which is different from Europe
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和歐洲不一樣，
19:04
and different from the United States:
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也和美國不一樣。
19:06
China has huge numbers of people and no space.
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問題在於，中國有龐大的人口但有限的空間。
19:09
So this is a solution to a situation
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因此，北京的試驗可做為範例，
19:11
where China's going to have
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為其它城市提供一個解決方案，
19:13
many, many, many cities
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因為中國將會有更多的城市
19:15
over 20 million people.
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其人口超過2千萬。
19:17
Okay, so how would I like to finish?
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那麼，我該怎麽來下結論呢？
19:20
Well, what should our attitude be
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我們該用什麽態度
19:23
towards this world
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來面對這個
19:26
that we see
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在我們眼前
19:28
very rapidly developing
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快速發展的
19:30
before us?
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世界呢？
19:33
I think there will be good things about it and there will be bad things about it.
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我想對我們來説它是好壞參半。
19:36
But I want to argue, above all,
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但是總而言之，
19:38
a big-picture positive for this world.
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我想為這世界提出較樂觀正向的藍圖。
19:43
For 200 years,
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200年以來，
19:45
the world was essentially governed
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這個世界基本上
19:51
by a fragment of the human population.
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是由全球人口中的一部分人所統治的。
19:55
That's what Europe and North America represented.
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歐洲和北美洲就是典型的代表。
19:59
The arrival of countries
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其它國家的崛起
20:01
like China and India --
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如中國和印度──
20:03
between them 38 percent of the world's population --
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這兩國擁有世界38%的人口──
20:05
and others like Indonesia and Brazil and so on,
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還有其他像印尼和巴西等等，
20:11
represent the most important single act
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展現了過去200年以來
20:14
of democratization
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最重要的一次
20:16
in the last 200 years.
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民主化過程。
20:18
Civilizations and cultures,
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過去被忽略的、無聲的、
20:20
which had been ignored, which had no voice,
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不被傾聽的、不為人知的
20:23
which were not listened to, which were not known about,
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這些文明和文化
20:25
will have a different sort
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將會用不同的方式
20:27
of representation in this world.
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呈現在這個世界。
20:30
As humanists, we must welcome, surely,
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身為人道主義者，我們當然要歡迎
20:32
this transformation,
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這樣的轉變。
20:34
and we will have to learn
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而且我們將必須去學習
20:36
about these civilizations.
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這些文明。
20:38
This big ship here
487
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這艘大船
20:41
was the one sailed in by Zheng He
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是15世紀初
20:43
in the early 15th century
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鄭和下西洋的船，
20:45
on his great voyages
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經中國的東海、南海
20:47
around the South China Sea, the East China Sea
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穿越印度洋到東非
20:50
and across the Indian Ocean to East Africa.
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的偉大航行。
20:53
The little boat in front of it
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在這艘船前方的小船
20:57
was the one in which, 80 years later,
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是80年後
20:59
Christopher Columbus crossed the Atlantic.
495
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哥倫布橫渡大西洋所駕馭的。
21:02
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
21:04
Or, look carefully
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或者，看仔細一點
21:06
at this silk scroll
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這個絲畫軸
21:08
made by ZhuZhou
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是朱周（音譯）
21:11
in 1368.
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在1368年畫的
21:14
I think they're playing golf.
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我想他們正在打高爾夫球。
21:16
Christ, the Chinese even invented golf.
502
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天哪，連高爾夫球也是中國人發明的！
21:19
Welcome to the future. Thank you.
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歡迎來到未來。謝謝大家。
21:22
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Martin Jacques - Writer, columnistMartin Jacques is the author of "When China Rules the World," and a columnist for the Guardian and New Statesman. He was a co-founder of the think tank Demos.
Why you should listen
Martin Jacques is the author of When China Rules the World: The Rise of the Middle Kingdom and the End of the Western World. He is a Senior Fellow at the Department of Politics and International Studies, Cambridge University, and a Visiting Professor at Tsinghua University, Beijing. He is also a non-resident Fellow at the Transatlantic Academy, Washington DC. He is a columnist for the Guardian and the New Statesman.
His interest in East Asia began in 1993 with a holiday in China, Hong Kong, Singapore and Malaysia. After that, he found every reason or excuse he could find to spend time in the region, be it personal, for newspaper articles or television programs. In 1977, he became editor of Marxism Today, a post he held for fourteen years, transforming what was an obscure and dull journal into the most influential political publication in Britain, read and respected on the right and left alike.
In 1991, he closed Marxism Today and in 1994 became the deputy editor of the Independent newspaper, a post he held until 1996. In 1993 he co-founded the think-tank Demos.
Martin Jacques | Speaker | TED.com