TED2011
Dan Ariely: Beware conflicts of interest
Dan Ariely: Čuvajte se sukoba interesa
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U ovom kratkom govoru psiholog Dan Ariely iznosi dvije osobne priče koima istražuje znanstveni sukob interesa: kako na potragu za znanjem i uvidom mogu utjecati, svjesno ili ne, kratkoročni osobni ciljevi. Kada razmišljamo o velikim pitanjima, podsjeća nas, moramo biti svjesni naših previše ljudskih mozgova.
Dan Ariely - Behavioral economist
The dismal science of economics is not as firmly grounded in actual behavior as was once supposed. In "Predictably Irrational," Dan Ariely told us why. Full bio
The dismal science of economics is not as firmly grounded in actual behavior as was once supposed. In "Predictably Irrational," Dan Ariely told us why. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
So, I was in the hospital for a long time.
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Dakle, dugo sam bio u bolnici.
00:19
And a few years after I left, I went back,
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I nekoliko godina nakon izlaska, vratio sam se,
00:22
and the chairman of the burn department was very excited to see me --
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i predstojnik odjela za opekline bio je vrlo uzbuđen što me vidi --
00:25
said, "Dan, I have a fantastic new treatment for you."
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rekao je: "Dan, imam fantastičnu novu terapiju za tebe".
00:28
I was very excited. I walked with him to his office.
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Bio sam vrlo uzbuđen. Otišao sam s njim do njegovog ureda.
00:30
And he explained to me that, when I shave,
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Objasnio mi je da, kad se obrijem,
00:33
I have little black dots on the left side of my face where the hair is,
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imam male crne točkice na lijevoj strani lica gdje se nalazi dlaka,
00:36
but on the right side of my face
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ali na desnoj strani lica
00:38
I was badly burned so I have no hair,
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jako sam opečen pa nemam dlaka,
00:40
and this creates lack of symmetry.
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i to rezultira manjkom simetrije.
00:42
And what's the brilliant idea he had?
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A koja je briljantna ideja koju je on imao?
00:44
He was going to tattoo little black dots
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Htio mi je istetovirati male crne točkice
00:46
on the right side of my face
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na desnu stranu lica
00:49
and make me look very symmetric.
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kako bih izgledao vrlo simetrično.
00:51
It sounded interesting. He asked me to go and shave.
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Zvučalo je zanimljivo. Zamolio me da se odem obrijati.
00:54
Let me tell you, this was a strange way to shave,
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Znate, to je bio čudan način brijanja,
00:56
because I thought about it
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jer sam razmišljao o tome
00:58
and I realized that the way I was shaving then
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i shvatio kako će način na koji sam se tada brijao
01:00
would be the way I would shave for the rest of my life --
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biti način na koji ću se brijati do kraja života --
01:02
because I had to keep the width the same.
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jer je širina trebala ostati ista.
01:04
When I got back to his office,
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Kad sam se vratio u njegov ured,
01:06
I wasn't really sure.
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nisam bio potpuno siguran.
01:08
I said, "Can I see some evidence for this?"
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Rekao sam: "Mogu li vidjeti neki primjer toga?"
01:10
So he showed me some pictures
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Stoga mi je pokazao neke slike
01:12
of little cheeks with little black dots --
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malih obraza s malim crnim točkama --
01:14
not very informative.
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ne naročito informativno.
01:16
I said, "What happens when I grow older and my hair becomes white?
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Rekao sam: "Što će biti kad ostarim i moje dlake postanu bijele?
01:18
What would happen then?"
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Što će se tada dogoditi?"
01:20
"Oh, don't worry about it," he said.
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"Oh, ne brini se za to," rekao je.
01:22
"We have lasers; we can whiten it out."
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"Imamo lasere; možemo to izbijeliti".
01:25
But I was still concerned,
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Ali još uvijek sam bio zabrinut,
01:27
so I said, "You know what, I'm not going to do it."
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pa sam rekao: "Znate što, neću to učiniti".
01:30
And then came one of the biggest guilt trips of my life.
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A tada sam sad dobio jedan od najgorih osjećaja krivnje u životu.
01:34
This is coming from a Jewish guy, all right, so that means a lot.
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To govori jedan židov, tako da je to velika stvar.
01:37
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
01:39
And he said, "Dan, what's wrong with you?
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A on je rekao, "Dan, što je s tobom?
01:42
Do you enjoy looking non-symmetric?
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Voliš izgledati nesimetrično?
01:44
Do you have some kind of perverted pleasure from this?
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Pričinjava li ti to neko perverzno zadovoljstvo?
01:49
Do women feel pity for you
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Sažale li se žene nad tobom
01:51
and have sex with you more frequently?"
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i češće spavaju s tobom?"
01:54
None of those happened.
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Ništa od toga nije se dogodilo.
01:58
And this was very surprising to me,
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A to je bilo veliko iznenađenje za mene,
02:00
because I've gone through many treatments --
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jer isprobao sam mnogo terapija --
02:02
there were many treatments I decided not to do --
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bilo je mnogo terapija na koje sam odlučio ne ići --
02:04
and I never got this guilt trip to this extent.
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i nikad nisam imao toliki osjećaj krivnje.
02:06
But I decided not to have this treatment.
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Ali odlučio sam ne ići na tu terapiju.
02:08
And I went to his deputy and asked him, "What was going on?
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Otišao sam do njegovog zamjenika i pitao ga, "Što se događa?
02:10
Where was this guilt trip coming from?"
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Odakle dolazi ta krivnja?"
02:12
And he explained that they have done this procedure on two patients already,
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Objasnio mi je kako su već proveli tu terapiju na dva pacijenta,
02:16
and they need the third patient for a paper they were writing.
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i trebali su trećeg pacijenta za rad koji su pisali.
02:19
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
02:21
Now you probably think that this guy's a schmuck.
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Sad vjerojatno mislite kako je taj tip budala.
02:23
Right, that's what he seems like.
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Dobro, tako se i čini.
02:25
But let me give you a different perspective on the same story.
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Ali pružio bih vam drugi pogled na istu priču.
02:28
A few years ago, I was running some of my own experiments in the lab.
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Prije nekoliko godina, izvodio sam nekoliko vlastitih pokusa u laboratoriju.
02:31
And when we run experiments,
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A kad izvodimo pokuse,
02:33
we usually hope that one group will behave differently than another.
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obično se nadamo da će se jedna grupa ponašati drukčije od druge.
02:36
So we had one group that I hoped their performance would be very high,
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Dakle, imali smo jednu grupu za koju sam se nadao da će imati vrlo visok učinak,
02:39
another group that I thought their performance would be very low,
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i drugu grupu za koju sam mislio da će njihov učinak biti vrlo nizak.
02:42
and when I got the results, that's what we got --
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A kad sam dobio rezultate, dobili smo ovo --
02:44
I was very happy -- aside from one person.
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bio sam vrlo sretan -- osim jedne osobe.
02:47
There was one person in the group
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U grupi je postojala jedna osoba
02:49
that was supposed to have very high performance
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koja je trebala imati vrlo visok učinak
02:51
that was actually performing terribly.
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a čiji je učinak zapravo bio katastrofalan.
02:53
And he pulled the whole mean down,
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Snizio je ukupni prosjek
02:55
destroying my statistical significance of the test.
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i uništio statističku vrijednost testa.
02:59
So I looked carefully at this guy.
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Stoga sam pažljivo promatrao tog čovjeka.
03:01
He was 20-some years older than anybody else in the sample.
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Bio je 20-ak godina stariji od svih ostalih u uzorku.
03:04
And I remembered that the old and drunken guy
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Sjetio sam se kako je neki star i pijan muškarac
03:06
came one day to the lab
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jedan dan došao u laboratorij
03:08
wanting to make some easy cash
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kako bi zaradio neku laku lovu
03:10
and this was the guy.
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i to je bio taj čovjek.
03:12
"Fantastic!" I thought. "Let's throw him out.
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"Fantastično!", pomislio sam. "Izbacimo ga van.
03:14
Who would ever include a drunken guy in a sample?"
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Tko bi ikad uključio pijanog čovjeka u uzorak?"
03:17
But a couple of days later,
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Ali nekoliko dana kasnije,
03:19
we thought about it with my students,
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razmišljali smo o tome s mojim studentima,
03:21
and we said, "What would have happened if this drunken guy was not in that condition?
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i rekli smo: "Što bi se dogodilo kad taj pijani čovjek ne bi bio u tom stanju?
03:24
What would have happened if he was in the other group?
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Što bi se dogodilo kad bi bio u drugoj grupi?
03:26
Would we have thrown him out then?"
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Bismo li ga i tada izbacili van?"
03:28
We probably wouldn't have looked at the data at all,
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Vjerojatno ne bismo ni pogledali podatake,
03:30
and if we did look at the data,
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a ako bismo i pogledali podatke,
03:32
we'd probably have said, "Fantastic! What a smart guy who is performing this low,"
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vjerojatno bismo rekli, "Fantastično! Kako pametan čovjek koji ima tako nizak učinak",
03:35
because he would have pulled the mean of the group lower,
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jer bi snizio prosjek grupe
03:37
giving us even stronger statistical results than we could.
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i dao nam čak i jače statističke rezultate od onih koje smo dobili.
03:41
So we decided not to throw the guy out and to rerun the experiment.
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Stoga smo odlučili ne izbaciti tog čovjeka i odlučili smo ponoviti pokus.
03:44
But you know, these stories,
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Ali znate, te priče,
03:47
and lots of other experiments that we've done on conflicts of interest,
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i mnogi drugi pokusi o sukobu interesa koje smo napravili,
03:50
basically kind of bring two points
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u osnovi ističu
03:52
to the foreground for me.
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dvije stvari.
03:54
The first one is that in life we encounter many people
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Prva je da u životu sretnemo mnogo ljudi
03:57
who, in some way or another,
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koji, na ovaj ili onaj način,
04:00
try to tattoo our faces.
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pokušavaju tetovirati naša lica.
04:02
They just have the incentives that get them to be blinded to reality
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Oni jednostavno imaju poticaje zbog kojih ne vide stvarnost
04:05
and give us advice that is inherently biased.
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i daju nam savjete koji su, po prirodi stvari, pristrani.
04:08
And I'm sure that it's something that we all recognize,
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Siguran sam kako je to svima nama poznato,
04:10
and we see that it happens.
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i vidimo da se to događa.
04:12
Maybe we don't recognize it every time,
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Možda to ne prepoznajemo svaki put,
04:14
but we understand that it happens.
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ali shvaćamo da se to događa.
04:16
The most difficult thing, of course, is to recognize
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Ali najteže je, naravno, prepoznati
04:18
that sometimes we too
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da smo ponekad i mi sami
04:20
are blinded by our own incentives.
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zaslijepljeni svojim poticajima.
04:22
And that's a much, much more difficult lesson to take into account.
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A to je mnogo, mnogo teža pouka koju moramo uzeti u obzir.
04:25
Because we don't see how conflicts of interest work on us.
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Jer ne vidimo kako sukobi interesa utječu na nas.
04:29
When I was doing these experiments,
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Kada sam provodio te pokuse,
04:31
in my mind, I was helping science.
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po svojem mišljenju, pomagao sam znanosti.
04:33
I was eliminating the data
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Eliminirao sam podatke
04:35
to get the true pattern of the data to shine through.
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kako bih dobio pravi uzorak podataka koji će se istaknuti.
04:37
I wasn't doing something bad.
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Nisam radio nešto loše.
04:39
In my mind, I was actually a knight
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U svojim mislima, ja sam zapravo bio vitez
04:41
trying to help science move along.
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koji pomaže znanosti da napreduje.
04:43
But this was not the case.
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Ali to nije bio slučaj.
04:45
I was actually interfering with the process with lots of good intentions.
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Zapravo sam se s mnogo dobrih namjera miješao u proces.
04:48
And I think the real challenge is to figure out
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I mislim kako je pravi izazov dokučiti
04:50
where are the cases in our lives
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koji su slučajevi u našim životima
04:52
where conflicts of interest work on us,
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gdje sukobi interesa utječu na nas,
04:54
and try not to trust our own intuition to overcome it,
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i pokušati ne vjerovati svojoj intuiciji da ih savladamo,
04:57
but to try to do things
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već pokušati činiti ono
04:59
that prevent us from falling prey to these behaviors,
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što nas sprečava da padnemo u zamku takvog ponašanja
05:01
because we can create lots of undesirable circumstances.
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jer možemo stvoriti mnogo neželjenih posljedica.
05:05
I do want to leave you with one positive thought.
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Htio bih završiti s jednom pozitivnom misli.
05:07
I mean, this is all very depressing, right --
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Mislim, u redu, sve je ovo vrlo depresivno --
05:09
people have conflicts of interest, we don't see it, and so on.
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ljudi imaju sukob interesa, mi to ne vidimo i tako dalje.
05:12
The positive perspective, I think, of all of this
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Ono što je pozitivno u svemu tome, rekao bih,
05:14
is that, if we do understand when we go wrong,
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jest da, ako razumijemo kad griješimo,
05:17
if we understand the deep mechanisms
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ako razumijemo duboke mehanizme
05:19
of why we fail and where we fail,
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iza razloga zbog kojih doživimo neuspjeh i gdje ga doživimo,
05:21
we can actually hope to fix things.
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stvarno se možemo nadati kako ćemo popraviti stvari.
05:23
And that, I think, is the hope. Thank you very much.
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A tome se, mislim, nadamo. Puno vam hvala.
05:25
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Dan Ariely - Behavioral economistThe dismal science of economics is not as firmly grounded in actual behavior as was once supposed. In "Predictably Irrational," Dan Ariely told us why.
Why you should listen
Dan Ariely is a professor of psychology and behavioral economics at Duke University and a founding member of the Center for Advanced Hindsight. He is the author of the bestsellers Predictably Irrational, The Upside of Irrationality, and The Honest Truth About Dishonesty -- as well as the TED Book Payoff: The Hidden Logic that Shapes Our Motivations.
Through his research and his (often amusing and unorthodox) experiments, he questions the forces that influence human behavior and the irrational ways in which we often all behave.
Dan Ariely | Speaker | TED.com