TED2011
Dan Ariely: Beware conflicts of interest
Den Arili: Čuvajte se sukoba interesa
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U ovom kratkom govoru, psiholog Den Arili deli dve lične priče koje istražuju sukob interesa: kako potraga za znanjem i uvidom može, svesno ili nesvesno, pasti pod uticaj kratkovidih ličnih ciljeva. On nas podseća da, kada razmišljamo o značajnim pitanjima, budemo svesni naših ljudskih umova.
Dan Ariely - Behavioral economist
The dismal science of economics is not as firmly grounded in actual behavior as was once supposed. In "Predictably Irrational," Dan Ariely told us why. Full bio
The dismal science of economics is not as firmly grounded in actual behavior as was once supposed. In "Predictably Irrational," Dan Ariely told us why. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
So, I was in the hospital for a long time.
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Dugo sam bio u bolnici.
00:19
And a few years after I left, I went back,
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Nekoliko godina pošto sam izašao, vratio sam se
00:22
and the chairman of the burn department was very excited to see me --
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i predsednik odeljenja za opekotine je bio uzbuđen što me vidi -
00:25
said, "Dan, I have a fantastic new treatment for you."
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rekao je, "Den, imam fantastičnu novu terapiju za tebe."
00:28
I was very excited. I walked with him to his office.
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Bio sam veoma uzbuđen. Odšetali smo do njegove kancelarije.
00:30
And he explained to me that, when I shave,
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Objasnio mi je, kad se obrijem, imam
00:33
I have little black dots on the left side of my face where the hair is,
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male crne tačke na levoj strani lica gde imam malje,
00:36
but on the right side of my face
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ali na desnoj strani lica
00:38
I was badly burned so I have no hair,
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sam gadno opečen pa ih nemam,
00:40
and this creates lack of symmetry.
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a to stvara asimetriju.
00:42
And what's the brilliant idea he had?
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A kakvu je to sjajnu ideju imao?
00:44
He was going to tattoo little black dots
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Želeo je da istetovira sitne crne tačke
00:46
on the right side of my face
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na desnoj strani moga lica
00:49
and make me look very symmetric.
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i učini da izgleda veoma simetrično.
00:51
It sounded interesting. He asked me to go and shave.
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Zvučalo je zanimljivo. Zamolio me je da odem i obrijem se.
00:54
Let me tell you, this was a strange way to shave,
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Kažem vam, bio je to čudan način da se obrijem,
00:56
because I thought about it
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jer sam razmišljao o tome
00:58
and I realized that the way I was shaving then
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i shvatio da će način na koji se tada brijem
01:00
would be the way I would shave for the rest of my life --
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biti način na koji ću se brijati do kraja života -
01:02
because I had to keep the width the same.
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jer je trebalo da održim istu širinu.
01:04
When I got back to his office,
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Kada sam se vratio u njegovu kancelariju,
01:06
I wasn't really sure.
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nisam bio baš siguran.
01:08
I said, "Can I see some evidence for this?"
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Pitao sam, "Mogu li da vidim neke dokaze ovoga?"
01:10
So he showed me some pictures
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Pokazao mi je neke fotografije
01:12
of little cheeks with little black dots --
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malih obraza sa crnim tačkicama -
01:14
not very informative.
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nije bilo baš od koristi.
01:16
I said, "What happens when I grow older and my hair becomes white?
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Pitao sam, "Šta se dešava kad ostarim i osedim?
01:18
What would happen then?"
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Šta se onda dešava?"
01:20
"Oh, don't worry about it," he said.
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"O, ne brini o tome", rekao je
01:22
"We have lasers; we can whiten it out."
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"Imamo lasere; možemo izbeliti".
01:25
But I was still concerned,
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I dalje sam bio zabrinut,
01:27
so I said, "You know what, I'm not going to do it."
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pa sam rekao, "Znaš šta, neću ovo da uradim."
01:30
And then came one of the biggest guilt trips of my life.
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A onda sam imao jedan od najjačih osećaja krivice u životu.
01:34
This is coming from a Jewish guy, all right, so that means a lot.
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Ja sam Jevrejin, pa je to mnogo značajno.
01:37
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
01:39
And he said, "Dan, what's wrong with you?
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Pitao je, "Den, šta je s tobom?
01:42
Do you enjoy looking non-symmetric?
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Voliš da izgledaš asimetrično?
01:44
Do you have some kind of perverted pleasure from this?
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Na neki perverzni način uživaš u tome?
01:49
Do women feel pity for you
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Da li te žene žale
01:51
and have sex with you more frequently?"
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i češće imaju seks sa tobom?"
01:54
None of those happened.
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Ništa od toga nije u pitanju.
01:58
And this was very surprising to me,
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To mi je bilo iznenađujuće
02:00
because I've gone through many treatments --
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jer sam prošao kroz toliko terapija -
02:02
there were many treatments I decided not to do --
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mnogo njih sam odlučio da ne radim -
02:04
and I never got this guilt trip to this extent.
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i nikada nisam osećao ovakvu krivicu.
02:06
But I decided not to have this treatment.
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Ali sam odlučio da to ne radim.
02:08
And I went to his deputy and asked him, "What was going on?
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Pitao sam njegovog zamenika, "Šta se događa?
02:10
Where was this guilt trip coming from?"
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Odakle mi ovo osećanje krivice?"
02:12
And he explained that they have done this procedure on two patients already,
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Objasnio je da su tu proceduru već uradili na dva pacijenta
02:16
and they need the third patient for a paper they were writing.
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i bio im je potreban treći za naučni rad koji su pisali.
02:19
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
02:21
Now you probably think that this guy's a schmuck.
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Verovatno mislite da je ovaj tip kreten.
02:23
Right, that's what he seems like.
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Tako izgleda, zar ne?
02:25
But let me give you a different perspective on the same story.
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Ali nudim vam drugačiju perspektivu iste priče.
02:28
A few years ago, I was running some of my own experiments in the lab.
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Pre nekoliko godina sam i sam izvodio neke eksperimente u laboratoriji.
02:31
And when we run experiments,
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A kada radimo eksperimente, obično
02:33
we usually hope that one group will behave differently than another.
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se nadamo da će se jedna grupa ponašati drugačije od druge.
02:36
So we had one group that I hoped their performance would be very high,
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Imali smo jednu grupu za koju sam se nadao da će biti uspešna
02:39
another group that I thought their performance would be very low,
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i drugu, za koju sam mislio da će biti neuspešna.
02:42
and when I got the results, that's what we got --
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I dobili smo upravo takve rezultate -
02:44
I was very happy -- aside from one person.
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bio sam vrlo srećan - osim jedne osobe.
02:47
There was one person in the group
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Bila jedna osoba u grupi koja
02:49
that was supposed to have very high performance
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je trebalo da ima veoma dobre rezultate,
02:51
that was actually performing terribly.
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a učinak je zapravo bio jako loš.
02:53
And he pulled the whole mean down,
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Smanjio je srednji rezultat,
02:55
destroying my statistical significance of the test.
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uništivši mi statističku značajnost testa.
02:59
So I looked carefully at this guy.
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Pažljivo sam proučio tog tipa.
03:01
He was 20-some years older than anybody else in the sample.
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Bio je nekih dvadesetak godina stariji od svih u uzorku.
03:04
And I remembered that the old and drunken guy
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Setio sam se da je pijani starac
03:06
came one day to the lab
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jednog dana došao u laboratoriju
03:08
wanting to make some easy cash
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i želeo brzo da zaradi
03:10
and this was the guy.
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i to je bio taj tip.
03:12
"Fantastic!" I thought. "Let's throw him out.
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"Fantastično!", pomislio sam. "Hajde da ga izbacimo.
03:14
Who would ever include a drunken guy in a sample?"
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Ko bi ikada uključio pijanca u uzorak?"
03:17
But a couple of days later,
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Ali nakon par dana,
03:19
we thought about it with my students,
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promislio sam o tome sa studentima i
03:21
and we said, "What would have happened if this drunken guy was not in that condition?
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rekli smo, "Šta bi se desilo da pijanac nije bio u tom stanju?
03:24
What would have happened if he was in the other group?
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Šta bi se desilo da je bio u drugoj grupi?
03:26
Would we have thrown him out then?"
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Da li bismo ga onda izbacili?"
03:28
We probably wouldn't have looked at the data at all,
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Tada verovatno ne bismo ni gledali podatke,
03:30
and if we did look at the data,
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i ako bismo ih i gledali
03:32
we'd probably have said, "Fantastic! What a smart guy who is performing this low,"
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verovatno bismo rekli, "Fantastično! Super što ima loše rezultate",
03:35
because he would have pulled the mean of the group lower,
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jer bi onda još više snizio srednji rezultat grupe
03:37
giving us even stronger statistical results than we could.
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dajući nam značajnije statističke rezultate.
03:41
So we decided not to throw the guy out and to rerun the experiment.
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Odlučili smo da ga ne izbacimo i da ponovimo eksperiment.
03:44
But you know, these stories,
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Ali znate, ove priče i mnogo
03:47
and lots of other experiments that we've done on conflicts of interest,
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drugih eksperimenata koje smo uradili o sukobu interesa
03:50
basically kind of bring two points
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zapravo, po meni, iznose dve
03:52
to the foreground for me.
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stvari u prvi plan.
03:54
The first one is that in life we encounter many people
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Prva je ta da u životu srećemo mnogo ljudi
03:57
who, in some way or another,
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koji, na neki način,
04:00
try to tattoo our faces.
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pokušavaju da nam istetoviraju lica.
04:02
They just have the incentives that get them to be blinded to reality
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Imaju motive koji ih navode da budu slepi za stvarnost
04:05
and give us advice that is inherently biased.
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i daju nam savete koji su u osnovi pristrasni.
04:08
And I'm sure that it's something that we all recognize,
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Siguran sam da to svi prepoznajemo,
04:10
and we see that it happens.
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i vidimo da se dešava.
04:12
Maybe we don't recognize it every time,
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Možda ne prepoznamo svaki put,
04:14
but we understand that it happens.
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ali znamo da se dešava.
04:16
The most difficult thing, of course, is to recognize
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Naravno, najteže je da prepoznamo
04:18
that sometimes we too
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da smo i sami nekada
04:20
are blinded by our own incentives.
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zaslepljeni sopstvenim motivima.
04:22
And that's a much, much more difficult lesson to take into account.
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To je mnogo, mnogo teža lekcija za naučiti.
04:25
Because we don't see how conflicts of interest work on us.
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Jer ne vidimo kako sukob interesa utiče na nas.
04:29
When I was doing these experiments,
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Kada sam sprovodio te eksperimente,
04:31
in my mind, I was helping science.
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mislio sam da pomažem nauci.
04:33
I was eliminating the data
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Uklanjao sam neke podatke
04:35
to get the true pattern of the data to shine through.
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kako bi pravi rezultati došli do izražaja.
04:37
I wasn't doing something bad.
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Nisam radio nešto loše.
04:39
In my mind, I was actually a knight
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U svojim očima sam bio vitez
04:41
trying to help science move along.
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koji pomaže napredak nauke.
04:43
But this was not the case.
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Ali to nije bilo tako.
04:45
I was actually interfering with the process with lots of good intentions.
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Zapravo sam se mešao u proces sa veoma dobrom namerom.
04:48
And I think the real challenge is to figure out
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Mislim da je pravi izazov shvatiti
04:50
where are the cases in our lives
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koji su to slučajevi u našem životu
04:52
where conflicts of interest work on us,
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gde imamo sukob interesa i da
04:54
and try not to trust our own intuition to overcome it,
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pokušamo da ne verujemo intuiciji u njegovom prevazilaženju,
04:57
but to try to do things
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ali da pokušamo da radimo ono
04:59
that prevent us from falling prey to these behaviors,
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što nas sprečava da postanemo žrtve takvog ponašanja
05:01
because we can create lots of undesirable circumstances.
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jer možemo stvoriti mnogo neželjenih okolnosti.
05:05
I do want to leave you with one positive thought.
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Želim da vas ostavim sa jednom pozitivnom mišlju.
05:07
I mean, this is all very depressing, right --
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Mislim, ovo je veoma depresivno -
05:09
people have conflicts of interest, we don't see it, and so on.
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ljudi imaju sukobe interesa koje ne vidimo i tako dalje.
05:12
The positive perspective, I think, of all of this
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Mislim da je pozitivna perspektiva svega
05:14
is that, if we do understand when we go wrong,
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ta da ako shvatimo da smo pogrešili,
05:17
if we understand the deep mechanisms
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ako razumemo duboke razloge
05:19
of why we fail and where we fail,
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zašto i gde grešimo,
05:21
we can actually hope to fix things.
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možemo se nadati da to i popravimo.
05:23
And that, I think, is the hope. Thank you very much.
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Mislim da je u tome nada. Mnogo vam hvala.
05:25
(Applause)
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(aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Dan Ariely - Behavioral economistThe dismal science of economics is not as firmly grounded in actual behavior as was once supposed. In "Predictably Irrational," Dan Ariely told us why.
Why you should listen
Dan Ariely is a professor of psychology and behavioral economics at Duke University and a founding member of the Center for Advanced Hindsight. He is the author of the bestsellers Predictably Irrational, The Upside of Irrationality, and The Honest Truth About Dishonesty -- as well as the TED Book Payoff: The Hidden Logic that Shapes Our Motivations.
Through his research and his (often amusing and unorthodox) experiments, he questions the forces that influence human behavior and the irrational ways in which we often all behave.
Dan Ariely | Speaker | TED.com