TED2011
Dan Ariely: Beware conflicts of interest
ダン・アリエリ「利益相反にはご注意」
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心理学者のダン・アリエリが自身に起きた２つのトラブルを科学的な視点から検証します。自己の短期的な目標は、意識・無意識に関わらず、知識への探求心や見識にどうのような影響を及ぼすのでしょうか。彼は、この難問を考える際に、彼は人間の欲望に満ちた脳を忘れてはならないと説きます。
Dan Ariely - Behavioral economist
The dismal science of economics is not as firmly grounded in actual behavior as was once supposed. In "Predictably Irrational," Dan Ariely told us why. Full bio
The dismal science of economics is not as firmly grounded in actual behavior as was once supposed. In "Predictably Irrational," Dan Ariely told us why. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
So, I was in the hospital for a long time.
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私は長いこと入院していた事がありました
00:19
And a few years after I left, I went back,
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数年離れた仕事場に戻ると
00:22
and the chairman of the burn department was very excited to see me --
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大喜びの部長はこう言いました
00:25
said, "Dan, I have a fantastic new treatment for you."
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「ダンの為に素敵な治療を新たに用意した」
00:28
I was very excited. I walked with him to his office.
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興奮した私は上司の部屋に向かいました
00:30
And he explained to me that, when I shave,
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そこで彼は話し始めました 「ひげを剃ると
00:33
I have little black dots on the left side of my face where the hair is,
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顔の左側の毛がある部分に黒い斑点が残る
00:36
but on the right side of my face
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右側はひどく日焼けしてしまって
00:38
I was badly burned so I have no hair,
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毛自体が生えていない
00:40
and this creates lack of symmetry.
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これでは左右非対称だろ」
00:42
And what's the brilliant idea he had?
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彼はどんな名案を思いついたでしょう?
00:44
He was going to tattoo little black dots
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小さな黒い斑点状の
00:46
on the right side of my face
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タトゥーを顔の右側に入れることで
00:49
and make me look very symmetric.
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左右対称にするつもりだったのです
00:51
It sounded interesting. He asked me to go and shave.
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面白いですね 私はひげを剃れと言われました
00:54
Let me tell you, this was a strange way to shave,
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それが変わった剃り方で
00:56
because I thought about it
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普段のそり方を思い返して
00:58
and I realized that the way I was shaving then
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「これからはこうやって剃っていくのか」
01:00
would be the way I would shave for the rest of my life --
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と考えていました
01:02
because I had to keep the width the same.
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幅をそろえてそるのです
01:04
When I got back to his office,
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どこか腑に落ちないまま
01:06
I wasn't really sure.
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彼のオフィスに戻りました
01:08
I said, "Can I see some evidence for this?"
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「自分では見えないんだけど?」
01:10
So he showed me some pictures
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と言うと ほおに小さな黒い斑点が
01:12
of little cheeks with little black dots --
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うつった写真を見せてくれました
01:14
not very informative.
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たいして役には立ちませんでした
01:16
I said, "What happens when I grow older and my hair becomes white?
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私は「歳をとって白髪になったら
01:18
What would happen then?"
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どうするんですか？」と言いました
01:20
"Oh, don't worry about it," he said.
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彼は答えます「そんな事は心配しなくていい
01:22
"We have lasers; we can whiten it out."
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レーザーがあるだろ 脱色すればいい」
01:25
But I was still concerned,
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それでも不安をぬぐえず言いました
01:27
so I said, "You know what, I'm not going to do it."
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「やっぱり そんな治療はうけないよ」
01:30
And then came one of the biggest guilt trips of my life.
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そして人生最大の罪悪感が私を襲うのです
01:34
This is coming from a Jewish guy, all right, so that means a lot.
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ユダヤ人にとっては大問題です
01:37
(Laughter)
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(笑)
01:39
And he said, "Dan, what's wrong with you?
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彼は「どうしたんだ?」と聞きました
01:42
Do you enjoy looking non-symmetric?
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「左右非対称は気に入らないのか?」
01:44
Do you have some kind of perverted pleasure from this?
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「なんかやましいことでもあるのかよ?」
01:49
Do women feel pity for you
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「同情した女が寄ってきて
01:51
and have sex with you more frequently?"
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前よりもセックスできるとか?」
01:54
None of those happened.
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そんなことが起こったことはありません
01:58
And this was very surprising to me,
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しかし私は驚いていました
02:00
because I've gone through many treatments --
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受けないと決めた治療もありますし
02:02
there were many treatments I decided not to do --
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たくさんの治療を経験してきましたが
02:04
and I never got this guilt trip to this extent.
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こんな罪悪感は初めてでした
02:06
But I decided not to have this treatment.
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しかし この治療は受けないことに決めました
02:08
And I went to his deputy and asked him, "What was going on?
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彼の代理人に聞きました「何がどうしたんだ?」
02:10
Where was this guilt trip coming from?"
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「この罪悪感はどこから沸いてくるのか?」
02:12
And he explained that they have done this procedure on two patients already,
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彼らは既に２人にこの治療を施しており 論文を書くのに
02:16
and they need the third patient for a paper they were writing.
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最後の１人の実験代が必要だと説明してくれました
02:19
(Laughter)
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(笑)
02:21
Now you probably think that this guy's a schmuck.
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こいつはくずに見えますよね
02:23
Right, that's what he seems like.
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確かにそう思いました
02:25
But let me give you a different perspective on the same story.
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ではここで見方を少し変えてみましょう
02:28
A few years ago, I was running some of my own experiments in the lab.
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数年前 私は自身の研究室で実験をしていました
02:31
And when we run experiments,
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実験をするときは
02:33
we usually hope that one group will behave differently than another.
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２つのグループに異なる数値を期待するものです
02:36
So we had one group that I hoped their performance would be very high,
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そこで高いパフォーマンスと低いパフォーマンスを
02:39
another group that I thought their performance would be very low,
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引き出せるよう２つの被験者グループを用意しました
02:42
and when I got the results, that's what we got --
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結果は予想通りでした
02:44
I was very happy -- aside from one person.
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よかったです ただ１人例外がいました
02:47
There was one person in the group
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高いパフォーマンスを期待した
02:49
that was supposed to have very high performance
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グループの中に１人だけ
02:51
that was actually performing terribly.
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ひどいパフォーマンスを示す方がいました
02:53
And he pulled the whole mean down,
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彼のおかげで数値はがた落ち
02:55
destroying my statistical significance of the test.
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テストの統計を台無しにしてくれました
02:59
So I looked carefully at this guy.
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そこでそいつを観察してみました
03:01
He was 20-some years older than anybody else in the sample.
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彼は被験者の中で最高齢 20代でした
03:04
And I remembered that the old and drunken guy
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覚えていますよ
03:06
came one day to the lab
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酔っぱらった彼がある日
03:08
wanting to make some easy cash
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簡単に金が手に入らないかと
03:10
and this was the guy.
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研究所にやってきたんです
03:12
"Fantastic!" I thought. "Let's throw him out.
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「よし こいつを使おう」と思いました
03:14
Who would ever include a drunken guy in a sample?"
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「酔っぱらいを実験に使う人がいたものか?」
03:17
But a couple of days later,
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しかし数日後
03:19
we thought about it with my students,
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学生と共に考え始めたんです
03:21
and we said, "What would have happened if this drunken guy was not in that condition?
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「この酔っぱらいが高パフォーマンスではなく
03:24
What would have happened if he was in the other group?
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もう一方のグループに入っていたら?」
03:26
Would we have thrown him out then?"
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「彼を追い出そうと考えただろうか?」
03:28
We probably wouldn't have looked at the data at all,
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データには目をくれなかったかもしれません
03:30
and if we did look at the data,
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仮にそのデータを考察していれば
03:32
we'd probably have said, "Fantastic! What a smart guy who is performing this low,"
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「ここまでひどいとは 天才だ」と言ったかもしれません
03:35
because he would have pulled the mean of the group lower,
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著しく悪いパフォーマンスのおかげで
03:37
giving us even stronger statistical results than we could.
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２グループ間の差は一層増すからです
03:41
So we decided not to throw the guy out and to rerun the experiment.
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結局はグループを変えて再実験することにしました
03:44
But you know, these stories,
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この２つの話も
03:47
and lots of other experiments that we've done on conflicts of interest,
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利益相反に関する他の実験も
03:50
basically kind of bring two points
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詰まるところは２つの
03:52
to the foreground for me.
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教訓に集約されます
03:54
The first one is that in life we encounter many people
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まず 私たちは生きている間に
03:57
who, in some way or another,
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形はどうであれタトゥーを
04:00
try to tattoo our faces.
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入れたがる人に出会います
04:02
They just have the incentives that get them to be blinded to reality
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誘因のおかげで現実を見失った彼らは
04:05
and give us advice that is inherently biased.
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本質から偏したアドバイスをしてきます
04:08
And I'm sure that it's something that we all recognize,
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このことは皆 認識しているでしょう
04:10
and we see that it happens.
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よく目にしますよね
04:12
Maybe we don't recognize it every time,
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毎回は気づかないかもしれませんが
04:14
but we understand that it happens.
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こういうことが起こることは知っています
04:16
The most difficult thing, of course, is to recognize
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最大の難点は
04:18
that sometimes we too
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私たちも自身の誘因にかられて
04:20
are blinded by our own incentives.
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盲目になっていることを認識することです
04:22
And that's a much, much more difficult lesson to take into account.
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このことを認めるのはずっと難しいことです
04:25
Because we don't see how conflicts of interest work on us.
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自分が有利な場合には 目をつむってしまうからです
04:29
When I was doing these experiments,
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私は科学への貢献と思って
04:31
in my mind, I was helping science.
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先ほどの実験をしていました
04:33
I was eliminating the data
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光り輝く真の統計値を求めて
04:35
to get the true pattern of the data to shine through.
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データをふるいにかけていました
04:37
I wasn't doing something bad.
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悪いことをしていたわけではありません
04:39
In my mind, I was actually a knight
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私は心のうちでは
04:41
trying to help science move along.
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科学発展に努めるナイトでした
04:43
But this was not the case.
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しかし間違っていました
04:45
I was actually interfering with the process with lots of good intentions.
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善意を持って実験方法を歪めていました
04:48
And I think the real challenge is to figure out
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ここでの課題は利益相反の生ずる
04:50
where are the cases in our lives
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事例はどのような状況なのかを
04:52
where conflicts of interest work on us,
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見極めることであり
04:54
and try not to trust our own intuition to overcome it,
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その克服法は自身の直感はあてにせず
04:57
but to try to do things
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こういった罠にかからないための
04:59
that prevent us from falling prey to these behaviors,
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対策を講じることです
05:01
because we can create lots of undesirable circumstances.
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好ましくない状況を作るのは容易ですよね
05:05
I do want to leave you with one positive thought.
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最後に１つ朗報があります
05:07
I mean, this is all very depressing, right --
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見えてもいない利益相反に従って
05:09
people have conflicts of interest, we don't see it, and so on.
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行動しているなんてずいぶん陰鬱な話ですよね
05:12
The positive perspective, I think, of all of this
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この物語に見るポジティブな側面とは
05:14
is that, if we do understand when we go wrong,
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過ちを犯してしまう理由と場合の
05:17
if we understand the deep mechanisms
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裏に潜んでいるメカニズムを
05:19
of why we fail and where we fail,
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解明することができれば
05:21
we can actually hope to fix things.
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修復の望みはあるということです
05:23
And that, I think, is the hope. Thank you very much.
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そう望んでいます ありがとうございました
05:25
(Applause)
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（拍手）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Dan Ariely - Behavioral economistThe dismal science of economics is not as firmly grounded in actual behavior as was once supposed. In "Predictably Irrational," Dan Ariely told us why.
Why you should listen
Dan Ariely is a professor of psychology and behavioral economics at Duke University and a founding member of the Center for Advanced Hindsight. He is the author of the bestsellers Predictably Irrational, The Upside of Irrationality, and The Honest Truth About Dishonesty -- as well as the TED Book Payoff: The Hidden Logic that Shapes Our Motivations.
Through his research and his (often amusing and unorthodox) experiments, he questions the forces that influence human behavior and the irrational ways in which we often all behave.
Dan Ariely | Speaker | TED.com