TED2011
Dan Ariely: Beware conflicts of interest
Dan Ariely: 謹防利益衝突
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在這短短的談話中，心理學家Dan Ariely講述了兩個個人故事，探索科學的利益衝突：如何由於自覺與否的短淺個人目標, 會影響對科學知識的追求和洞察。當我們思考澔大的問題時，他提醒我們，我們要注意我們過於人性的大腦。
Dan Ariely - Behavioral economist
The dismal science of economics is not as firmly grounded in actual behavior as was once supposed. In "Predictably Irrational," Dan Ariely told us why. Full bio
The dismal science of economics is not as firmly grounded in actual behavior as was once supposed. In "Predictably Irrational," Dan Ariely told us why. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
So, I was in the hospital for a long time.
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所以，我曾經在醫院過了一段很長的時間。
00:19
And a few years after I left, I went back,
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而在我離開幾年後，我再回去，
00:22
and the chairman of the burn department was very excited to see me --
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而燒傷部的主席非常高興地見到我--
00:25
said, "Dan, I have a fantastic new treatment for you."
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他說：「Dan，我有一個奇妙的新治療給你。」
00:28
I was very excited. I walked with him to his office.
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我感到非常興奮。我跟他走到他的辦公室。
00:30
And he explained to me that, when I shave,
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他向我解釋說，當我刮鬍子時，
00:33
I have little black dots on the left side of my face where the hair is,
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我在左邊臉有毛髮的部位有黑點
00:36
but on the right side of my face
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但在右邊
00:38
I was badly burned so I have no hair,
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被嚴重燒傷的臉沒有毛髮,
00:40
and this creates lack of symmetry.
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這造成缺乏對稱。
00:42
And what's the brilliant idea he had?
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而他有什麼高招？
00:44
He was going to tattoo little black dots
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他打算在我的右臉
00:46
on the right side of my face
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紋一些小黑點
00:49
and make me look very symmetric.
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使我看起來非常對稱。
00:51
It sounded interesting. He asked me to go and shave.
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聽起來很有意思。他叫我去刮鬍子。
00:54
Let me tell you, this was a strange way to shave,
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讓我告訴你，這是一種奇怪刮鬍子的方式，
00:56
because I thought about it
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因為我想過這個問題，
00:58
and I realized that the way I was shaving then
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我當時意識到，我刻下剃須的方法，
01:00
would be the way I would shave for the rest of my life --
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便將會是我今後剃須的方法--
01:02
because I had to keep the width the same.
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因為我必須保持寬度相同。
01:04
When I got back to his office,
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當我回到他的辦公室，
01:06
I wasn't really sure.
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我真的決定不穩。
01:08
I said, "Can I see some evidence for this?"
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我說，「我能否看到一些證據呢？」
01:10
So he showed me some pictures
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於是，他給我看了一些
01:12
of little cheeks with little black dots --
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小臉頰有小黑點照片 --
01:14
not very informative.
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不是很有建設性。
01:16
I said, "What happens when I grow older and my hair becomes white?
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我說：「如果當我老年時我的頭髮變成白色,
01:18
What would happen then?"
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那會怎樣呢？」
01:20
"Oh, don't worry about it," he said.
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他說:「哦，不用擔心」,
01:22
"We have lasers; we can whiten it out."
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「我們有激光，我們可以改變成白色。」
01:25
But I was still concerned,
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但我仍然擔心，
01:27
so I said, "You know what, I'm not going to do it."
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所以我說，「算了，我不打算這樣做。」
01:30
And then came one of the biggest guilt trips of my life.
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然後, 我聽到我一生中最大的令我感到内疚的話。
01:34
This is coming from a Jewish guy, all right, so that means a lot.
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這個猶太傢伙都這樣說，這就表示很問題很嚴重。
01:37
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
01:39
And he said, "Dan, what's wrong with you?
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他說：「Dan，你是否有什麼問題？
01:42
Do you enjoy looking non-symmetric?
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你喜歡看起來非不對稱嗎？
01:44
Do you have some kind of perverted pleasure from this?
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你是否由此有某種變態的快感呢？
01:49
Do women feel pity for you
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是否有女人覺得可憐你
01:51
and have sex with you more frequently?"
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而和你更頻繁發生性關係呢？」
01:54
None of those happened.
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當然沒有這些事。
01:58
And this was very surprising to me,
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而令我非常驚訝的是，
02:00
because I've gone through many treatments --
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因為我已經經歷了許多治療方法 --
02:02
there were many treatments I decided not to do --
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亦有許多我決定不做的治療方法--
02:04
and I never got this guilt trip to this extent.
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我從來沒有到過這種令我感到内疚的程度。
02:06
But I decided not to have this treatment.
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但我決定不要這種療法。
02:08
And I went to his deputy and asked him, "What was going on?
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當我去問他的副手 ：「究竟發生什麼事？
02:10
Where was this guilt trip coming from?"
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為什麼要令人感到内疚呢?」
02:12
And he explained that they have done this procedure on two patients already,
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他解釋說，他們這樣的療法已經在兩名病人身上做過，
02:16
and they need the third patient for a paper they were writing.
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而他們需要第三個病人來寫他們的論文。
02:19
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
02:21
Now you probably think that this guy's a schmuck.
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現在你可能認為這傢伙非常糟糕。
02:23
Right, that's what he seems like.
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當然，似乎他就是非常糟糕。
02:25
But let me give you a different perspective on the same story.
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但是讓我給你一個不同的角度看同一個故事。
02:28
A few years ago, I was running some of my own experiments in the lab.
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幾年前，在實驗室裡我正進行一些我自己的實驗。
02:31
And when we run experiments,
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而當我們進行實驗，
02:33
we usually hope that one group will behave differently than another.
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我們通常希望一組和另一組有不同的表現。
02:36
So we had one group that I hoped their performance would be very high,
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因此，我們有一個希望他們表現會非常高個的一組,
02:39
another group that I thought their performance would be very low,
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而有另一個希望他們表現會非常低的一組。
02:42
and when I got the results, that's what we got --
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而當我得到的結果--
02:44
I was very happy -- aside from one person.
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-- 我很高興 -- 除了對一個人。
02:47
There was one person in the group
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在小組有一個人
02:49
that was supposed to have very high performance
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應該是有非常高的表現，
02:51
that was actually performing terribly.
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但是實際執行時卻糟透。
02:53
And he pulled the whole mean down,
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他將整個平均拉下來，
02:55
destroying my statistical significance of the test.
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摧毀了我實驗的統計意義。
02:59
So I looked carefully at this guy.
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是以我仔細研究過這傢伙。
03:01
He was 20-some years older than anybody else in the sample.
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他是一個比其他人老20歲以上的的樣本。
03:04
And I remembered that the old and drunken guy
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而我記得，那醉酒傢伙
03:06
came one day to the lab
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來過實驗室
03:08
wanting to make some easy cash
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想要找賺一些快錢，
03:10
and this was the guy.
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這就是那傢伙。
03:12
"Fantastic!" I thought. "Let's throw him out.
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我想: 「太棒了！ 就讓我們扔掉他。
03:14
Who would ever include a drunken guy in a sample?"
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誰會用一個喝醉酒的傢伙做實驗呢 ？」
03:17
But a couple of days later,
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但兩天後，
03:19
we thought about it with my students,
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我們與學生想想，
03:21
and we said, "What would have happened if this drunken guy was not in that condition?
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我們說，「如果這傢伙是不是在醉酒的狀態會怎樣呢？
03:24
What would have happened if he was in the other group?
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如果他在另一組會怎樣呢？
03:26
Would we have thrown him out then?"
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請問我們會不會扔掉他呢？」
03:28
We probably wouldn't have looked at the data at all,
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我們也許就根本不會看數據，
03:30
and if we did look at the data,
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但如果我們看一下數據，
03:32
we'd probably have said, "Fantastic! What a smart guy who is performing this low,"
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我們可能會說，「神奇！一個多麼聰明的傢伙竟然得到這個低的結果」，
03:35
because he would have pulled the mean of the group lower,
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因為他會拉低該組的平均数，
03:37
giving us even stronger statistical results than we could.
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讓我們有更強勁的統計結果
03:41
So we decided not to throw the guy out and to rerun the experiment.
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因此，我們決定不扔掉那傢伙出來，並重新運行實驗。
03:44
But you know, these stories,
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但是你要知道，這些故事，
03:47
and lots of other experiments that we've done on conflicts of interest,
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以及很多其他我們做過的關於利益衝突的實驗，
03:50
basically kind of bring two points
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基本上為我
03:52
to the foreground for me.
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提出兩點。
03:54
The first one is that in life we encounter many people
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第一個是，在生活中我們遇到很多人,
03:57
who, in some way or another,
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以一些某種方式,
04:00
try to tattoo our faces.
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嘗試在我們的臉上紋身。
04:02
They just have the incentives that get them to be blinded to reality
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他們被有激勵的動機蒙蔽了現實，
04:05
and give us advice that is inherently biased.
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而給我們本質上是有偏見的建議。
04:08
And I'm sure that it's something that we all recognize,
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而且我敢肯定這是我們都能看到的事情，
04:10
and we see that it happens.
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我們都承認它發生的事情。
04:12
Maybe we don't recognize it every time,
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也許我們不能每一次都認出，
04:14
but we understand that it happens.
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但我們知道這會發生。
04:16
The most difficult thing, of course, is to recognize
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最困難的事情，當然是要認識到
04:18
that sometimes we too
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有時我們也被
04:20
are blinded by our own incentives.
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激勵的機制蒙蔽了我們自己。
04:22
And that's a much, much more difficult lesson to take into account.
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而這是一個非常，非常困難考慮的教訓。
04:25
Because we don't see how conflicts of interest work on us.
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因為我們看不清楚對我們個人的利益衝突。
04:29
When I was doing these experiments,
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當我在做這些實驗，
04:31
in my mind, I was helping science.
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在我心中，我是助長科學。
04:33
I was eliminating the data
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我是在消除了某些數據
04:35
to get the true pattern of the data to shine through.
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來獲取真實模式的數據彪炳。
04:37
I wasn't doing something bad.
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我沒有做壞事。
04:39
In my mind, I was actually a knight
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在我心目中，我其實是一個
04:41
trying to help science move along.
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想幫科學向前看的騎士。
04:43
But this was not the case.
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但這種情況並非如此。
04:45
I was actually interfering with the process with lots of good intentions.
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我其實是以大量的好意圖來干擾過程。
04:48
And I think the real challenge is to figure out
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我認為，真正的挑戰是要弄清楚
04:50
where are the cases in our lives
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在我們生活中
04:52
where conflicts of interest work on us,
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利益衝突在何處影響了我們，
04:54
and try not to trust our own intuition to overcome it,
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並盡量不信任自己的直覺去克服它，
04:57
but to try to do things
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而是試圖做一些事情
04:59
that prevent us from falling prey to these behaviors,
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來防止我們墮入這些行為，
05:01
because we can create lots of undesirable circumstances.
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因為我們因此可以創造大量的不良情況。
05:05
I do want to leave you with one positive thought.
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我想給你留下一個積極的意念。
05:07
I mean, this is all very depressing, right --
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我的意思是，這是非常令人沮喪的，對不對？ --
05:09
people have conflicts of interest, we don't see it, and so on.
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人的利益衝突，我們看不到它，等等。
05:12
The positive perspective, I think, of all of this
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在積極的角度來看，我認為，
05:14
is that, if we do understand when we go wrong,
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如果我們能理解我們何時錯了，
05:17
if we understand the deep mechanisms
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如果我們能了解為什麼
05:19
of why we fail and where we fail,
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我們失敗以及在哪裡失敗的深層機制，
05:21
we can actually hope to fix things.
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我們可以真正有希望解決事情。
05:23
And that, I think, is the hope. Thank you very much.
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而我認為，這是希望。非常感謝你。
05:25
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Dan Ariely - Behavioral economistThe dismal science of economics is not as firmly grounded in actual behavior as was once supposed. In "Predictably Irrational," Dan Ariely told us why.
Why you should listen
Dan Ariely is a professor of psychology and behavioral economics at Duke University and a founding member of the Center for Advanced Hindsight. He is the author of the bestsellers Predictably Irrational, The Upside of Irrationality, and The Honest Truth About Dishonesty -- as well as the TED Book Payoff: The Hidden Logic that Shapes Our Motivations.
Through his research and his (often amusing and unorthodox) experiments, he questions the forces that influence human behavior and the irrational ways in which we often all behave.
Dan Ariely | Speaker | TED.com