TEDxSydney
Tom Griffiths: 3 ways to make better decisions -- by thinking like a computer
Tom Griffiths: 3 načina do boljih odluka - razmišljajući poput računala
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Ako se ikada borite s donošenjem odluka, evo govora za vas. Kognitivni znanstvenik Tom Griffiths govori kako možemo primijeniti logiku računala za rješavanje škakljivih ljudskih problema, dijeleći tri praktične strategije za donošenje boljih odluka - o svemu, od pronalaska doma do izbora u kojem restoranu večeras jedemo.
Tom Griffiths - Psychologist, cognitive scientist
Tom Griffiths uses ideas from computer science to understand how human minds work. Full bio
Tom Griffiths uses ideas from computer science to understand how human minds work. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
If there's one city in the world
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Ako postoji i jedan grad na svijetu
00:15
where it's hard to find
a place to buy or rent,
a place to buy or rent,
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u kojem je teško kupiti
ili iznajmiti stan,
ili iznajmiti stan,
00:17
it's Sydney.
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onda je to Sydney.
00:19
And if you've tried
to find a home here recently,
to find a home here recently,
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Ako ste nedavno pokušali pronaći dom,
00:21
you're familiar with the problem.
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znate o čemu pričam.
00:23
Every time you walk into an open house,
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Svaki put kad uđete u neku kuću,
00:25
you get some information
about what's out there
about what's out there
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doznate neke informacije
o tome što se događa,
o tome što se događa,
00:27
and what's on the market,
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čega ima na tržištu.
00:28
but every time you walk out,
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I svaki put kad iziđete van,
00:30
you're running the risk
of the very best place passing you by.
of the very best place passing you by.
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suočavate se s rizikom da ćete propustiti
najbolju ponudu.
najbolju ponudu.
00:33
So how do you know when
to switch from looking
to switch from looking
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Pa kako da znate kada prestati gledati
00:36
to being ready to make an offer?
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i dati ponudu za najam prostora?
00:39
This is such a cruel and familiar problem
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To je tako okrutan i poznat problem
00:42
that it might come as a surprise
that it has a simple solution.
that it has a simple solution.
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pa će vam možda biti iznenađenje
da mu je rješenje vrlo jednostavno.
da mu je rješenje vrlo jednostavno.
00:45
37 percent.
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37 posto.
00:46
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
00:48
If you want to maximize the probability
that you find the very best place,
that you find the very best place,
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Ako želite povećati vjerojatnost
pronalaženja najboljeg mjesta,
pronalaženja najboljeg mjesta,
00:52
you should look at 37 percent
of what's on the market,
of what's on the market,
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trebate obratiti pažnju
na 37% onoga što se nudi,
na 37% onoga što se nudi,
00:55
and then make an offer
on the next place you see,
on the next place you see,
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a zatim dati ponudu
za sljedeći prostor koji ste našli,
za sljedeći prostor koji ste našli,
00:57
which is better than anything
that you've seen so far.
that you've seen so far.
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a koji je bolji od drugih koje ste
vidjeli do tada.
vidjeli do tada.
01:00
Or if you're looking for a month,
take 37 percent of that time --
take 37 percent of that time --
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Ili ako tražite mjesec dana,
uzmite 37% tog vremena --
uzmite 37% tog vremena --
01:04
11 days, to set a standard --
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11 dana, da budemo precizni --
01:07
and then you're ready to act.
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i spremni ste na djelovanje.
01:09
We know this because
trying to find a place to live
trying to find a place to live
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Znamo za to, jer traženje
prostora za život
prostora za život
01:12
is an example of an optimal
stopping problem.
stopping problem.
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je primjer problema
optimalnog odustajanja.
optimalnog odustajanja.
01:14
A class of problems that has been
studied extensively
studied extensively
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To je vrsta problema
koju intenzivno proučavaju
koju intenzivno proučavaju
01:17
by mathematicians and computer scientists.
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matematičari i računalni znanstvenici.
01:21
I'm a computational cognitive scientist.
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Ja sam računski kognitivni znanstvenik.
01:24
I spend my time trying to understand
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Pokušavam razumjeti
01:26
how it is that human minds work,
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kako radi ljudski um
01:27
from our amazing successes
to our dismal failures.
to our dismal failures.
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u trenucima najvećih uspjeha
i tužnih grešaka.
i tužnih grešaka.
01:32
To do that, I think about
the computational structure
the computational structure
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Razmišljam o računskoj strukturi
01:35
of the problems
that arise in everyday life,
that arise in everyday life,
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problema koji nastaju u svakodnevnom životu
i uspoređujem načine na koji se
ponašaju u stvarnom životu
ponašaju u stvarnom životu
01:37
and compare the ideal
solutions to those problems
solutions to those problems
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01:40
to the way that we actually behave.
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s njihovim idealnim rješenjima.
01:42
As a side effect,
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Kao posljedicu
01:43
I get to see how applying
a little bit of computer science
a little bit of computer science
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mogu vidjeti kako primjena malo
računalne znanosti
računalne znanosti
01:46
can make human decision-making easier.
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može ljudske odluke učiniti lakšima.
01:49
I have a personal motivation for this.
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Za to imam osobnu motivaciju.
01:52
Growing up in Perth
as an overly cerebral kid ...
as an overly cerebral kid ...
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Odrastajući u Perthu,
kao dijete koje je previše razmišljalo --
kao dijete koje je previše razmišljalo --
01:55
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
02:00
I would always try and act in the way
that I thought was rational,
that I thought was rational,
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pokušao sam se ponašati na način za
koji sam mislio da je racionalan,
koji sam mislio da je racionalan,
02:03
reasoning through every decision,
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prosuđujući svaku odluku,
02:04
trying to figure out
the very best action to take.
the very best action to take.
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pokušavajući shvatiti koja je najbolja
aktivnost koju trebam poduzeti.
aktivnost koju trebam poduzeti.
02:07
But this is an approach
that doesn't scale up
that doesn't scale up
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To je pristup koji se ne može primijeniti
na velikim problemima,
na velikim problemima,
02:10
when you start to run into
the sorts of problems
the sorts of problems
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s onima na koje nailazimo
02:12
that arise in adult life.
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u životu odraslih.
02:13
At one point, I even tried
to break up with my girlfriend
to break up with my girlfriend
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U jednom sam trenutku pokušao
prekinuti s mojom djevojkom
prekinuti s mojom djevojkom
02:16
because trying to take into account
her preferences as well as my own
her preferences as well as my own
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jer su me pokušaji da zadovoljim
i njene i svoje sklonosti
i njene i svoje sklonosti
02:20
and then find perfect solutions --
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na najbolji mogući način --
02:21
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
02:24
was just leaving me exhausted.
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potpuno iscrpljivali.
02:25
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
02:28
She pointed out that I was taking
the wrong approach
the wrong approach
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Ona je naglašavala da sam krenuo
pogrešnim pristupom
pogrešnim pristupom
02:30
to solving this problem --
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u rješavanje problema --
02:32
and she later became my wife.
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kasnije smo se oženili.
02:33
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
02:36
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
02:40
Whether it's as basic as trying to decide
what restaurant to go to
what restaurant to go to
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Bez obzira je li banalno
poput izbora restorana
poput izbora restorana
02:44
or as important as trying to decide
who to spend the rest of your life with,
who to spend the rest of your life with,
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ili važno poput izbora s kim ćete
provesti ostatak života,
provesti ostatak života,
02:48
human lives are filled
with computational problems
with computational problems
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ljudski životi su ispunjeni
računskim problemima
računskim problemima
02:50
that are just too hard to solve
by applying sheer effort.
by applying sheer effort.
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koje je teško riješiti
primjenom malog napora.
primjenom malog napora.
02:55
For those problems,
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Za takve probleme
02:56
it's worth consulting the experts:
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vrijedi savjetovati se sa stručnjacima:
02:58
computer scientists.
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računalnim znanstvenicima.
03:00
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
03:01
When you're looking for life advice,
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Ako tražite savjet o životu,
03:03
computer scientists probably aren't
the first people you think to talk to.
the first people you think to talk to.
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računalni znanstvenici vjerojatno nisu
prvi izbor za razgovor.
prvi izbor za razgovor.
03:07
Living life like a computer --
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Žive život poput računala --
03:09
stereotypically deterministic,
exhaustive and exact --
exhaustive and exact --
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stereotipno određen,
iscrpljujuć i precizan --
iscrpljujuć i precizan --
03:11
doesn't sound like a lot of fun.
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što ne zvuči baš zabavno.
03:14
But thinking about the computer science
of human decisions
of human decisions
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No razmišljati o računalnoj znanosti
ljudskih odluka
ljudskih odluka
03:17
reveals that in fact,
we've got this backwards.
we've got this backwards.
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otkriva da su, u stvari, stvari obrnute.
03:19
When applied to the sorts
of difficult problems
of difficult problems
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Kad se primjenjuje na zahtjevne probleme
03:21
that arise in human lives,
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koji se pojavljuju u ljudskim životima,
03:23
the way that computers
actually solve those problems
actually solve those problems
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način na koji računala zapravo
rješavaju te probleme
rješavaju te probleme
03:25
looks a lot more like the way
that people really act.
that people really act.
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više liči na način na koji se
ljudi zaista ponašaju.
ljudi zaista ponašaju.
03:29
Take the example of trying to decide
what restaurant to go to.
what restaurant to go to.
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Uzmite, na primjer, pokušaj odabira
restorana u koji ćete ići.
restorana u koji ćete ići.
03:33
This is a problem that has
a particular computational structure.
a particular computational structure.
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To je problem koji ima osobitu
računsku strukturu.
računsku strukturu.
03:36
You've got a set of options,
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Imate nekoliko mogućnosti,
03:37
you're going to choose
one of those options,
one of those options,
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vi ćete izabrati jednu od njih,
03:39
and you're going to face
exactly the same decision tomorrow.
exactly the same decision tomorrow.
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a sutra ćete se ponovno
susresti s istom odlukom.
susresti s istom odlukom.
03:42
In that situation,
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U takvoj situaciji
03:43
you run up against
what computer scientists call
what computer scientists call
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susrećete se s onim što računalni
znanstvenici nazivaju
znanstvenici nazivaju
03:46
the "explore-exploit trade-off."
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"balans traženja i korištenja".
03:49
You have to make a decision
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Morate donijeti odluku
03:50
about whether you're going
to try something new --
to try something new --
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o tome hoćete li isprobati nešto novo --
03:52
exploring, gathering some information
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tražiti, prikupljati neke informacije
03:55
that you might be able
to use in the future --
to use in the future --
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koje vam mogu biti od koristi u
budućnosti --
budućnosti --
03:57
or whether you're going to go to a place
that you already know is pretty good --
that you already know is pretty good --
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ili ćete ići na neko mjesto koje već
znate da je dobro --
znate da je dobro --
04:01
exploiting the information
that you've already gathered so far.
that you've already gathered so far.
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koristeći informacije koje ste
prikupili ranije.
prikupili ranije.
04:05
The explore/exploit trade-off
shows up any time you have to choose
shows up any time you have to choose
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Balans traženja i korištenja se
pojavljuje svaki put kad trebamo izabrati
pojavljuje svaki put kad trebamo izabrati
04:08
between trying something new
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između istraživanja nečeg novog
04:09
and going with something
that you already know is pretty good,
that you already know is pretty good,
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i korištenja nečeg za što već znamo
da je prilično dobro,
da je prilično dobro,
04:12
whether it's listening to music
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bez obzira radi li se o slušanju glazbe
04:14
or trying to decide
who you're going to spend time with.
who you're going to spend time with.
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ili pokušaju da odredimo s kim ćemo
provesti vrijeme.
provesti vrijeme.
04:17
It's also the problem
that technology companies face
that technology companies face
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To je problem s kojim se susreću
tehnološka poduzeća,
tehnološka poduzeća,
04:19
when they're trying to do something
like decide what ad to show on a web page.
like decide what ad to show on a web page.
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kad pokušavaju odlučiti koji oglas se
treba pojaviti na internet stranici.
treba pojaviti na internet stranici.
Trebaju li pokazati novi oglas
i naučiti nešto iz toga,
i naučiti nešto iz toga,
04:23
Should they show a new ad
and learn something about it,
and learn something about it,
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04:26
or should they show you an ad
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ili trebaju pokazati oglas
04:27
that they already know there's a good
chance you're going to click on?
chance you're going to click on?
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za koji već znaju da ima dobre mogućnosti
da se na njega klikne.
da se na njega klikne.
04:30
Over the last 60 years,
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Tijekom prošlih 60 godina
04:31
computer scientists have made
a lot of progress understanding
a lot of progress understanding
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računalni znanstvenici su značajno
napredovali u razumijevanju
napredovali u razumijevanju
04:34
the explore/exploit trade-off,
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balansa traženja i korištenja,
04:36
and their results offer
some surprising insights.
some surprising insights.
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a njihovi rezultati nude
neke iznenađujuće uvide.
neke iznenađujuće uvide.
04:39
When you're trying to decide
what restaurant to go to,
what restaurant to go to,
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Kad nastojite odlučiti
u koji ćete restoran ići,
u koji ćete restoran ići,
04:41
the first question you should ask yourself
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najprije se trebate zapitati
04:43
is how much longer
you're going to be in town.
you're going to be in town.
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koliko ćete dugo još biti u tom gradu.
04:46
If you're just going to be there
for a short time,
for a short time,
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Ako ćete biti samo još kratko vrijeme,
04:48
then you should exploit.
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trebali biste se služiti korištenjem.
04:50
There's no point gathering information.
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Nema smisla skupljati informacije.
04:52
Just go to a place
you already know is good.
you already know is good.
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Samo otiđite u restoran
za koji već znate da je dobar.
za koji već znate da je dobar.
04:54
But if you're going to be there
for a longer time, explore.
for a longer time, explore.
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Ako ćete biti tamo
duže vrijeme, istražujte.
duže vrijeme, istražujte.
04:57
Try something new,
because the information you get
because the information you get
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Iskušajte nešto novo,
jer su informacije koje ćete prikupiti
jer su informacije koje ćete prikupiti
04:59
is something that can improve
your choices in the future.
your choices in the future.
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nešto što će unaprijediti
donošenje odluka u budućnosti.
donošenje odluka u budućnosti.
05:02
The value of information increases
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Vrijednost informacija se povećava
05:04
the more opportunities
you're going to have to use it.
you're going to have to use it.
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s povećanjem broja prilika u kojima
ćete ih moći koristiti.
ćete ih moći koristiti.
05:08
This principle can give us insight
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Ovo načelo nam također daje uvid
05:09
into the structure
of a human life as well.
of a human life as well.
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u strukturu ljudskog života.
05:13
Babies don't have a reputation
for being particularly rational.
for being particularly rational.
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Male bebe nisu baš poznate po tome
da su posebno racionalne.
da su posebno racionalne.
05:17
They're always trying new things,
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Stalno iskušavaju nove stvari i,
05:18
and you know, trying to stick them
in their mouths.
in their mouths.
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znate, pokušavaju ih ugurati u usta.
05:22
But in fact, this is exactly
what they should be doing.
what they should be doing.
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No, to je, zapravo, upravo ono
što bi i trebale raditi.
što bi i trebale raditi.
05:25
They're in the explore
phase of their lives,
phase of their lives,
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One su u istraživačkoj fazi svojih života.
05:28
and some of those things
could turn out to be delicious.
could turn out to be delicious.
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Neke od tih stvari
se mogu pokazati slasnima.
se mogu pokazati slasnima.
05:32
At the other end of the spectrum,
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Na drugom kraju spektra,
05:33
the old guy who always goes
to the same restaurant
to the same restaurant
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starac koji uvijek ide u isti restoran
05:36
and always eats the same thing
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i uvijek naručuje isto jelo
05:37
isn't boring --
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se ne dosađuje --
05:39
he's optimal.
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on optimizira.
05:40
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
05:44
He's exploiting the knowledge
that he's earned
that he's earned
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On koristi znanje koje je skupio
05:46
through a lifetime's experience.
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tijekom života.
05:50
More generally,
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Općenito govoreći,
05:51
knowing about
the explore/exploit trade-off
the explore/exploit trade-off
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znanje o balansu traženja i korištenja
05:53
can make it a little easier for you
to sort of relax and go easier on yourself
to sort of relax and go easier on yourself
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vam može olakšati, opustiti vas,
da vam bude lakše
da vam bude lakše
05:57
when you're trying to make a decision.
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prilikom donošenja odluka.
05:59
You don't have to go
to the best restaurant every night.
to the best restaurant every night.
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Ne morate ići u najbolji restoran
svaku večer.
svaku večer.
06:01
Take a chance, try something new, explore.
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Riskirajte, probajte nešto novo,
istražujte.
istražujte.
06:04
You might learn something.
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Možda ćete nešto naučiti.
06:06
And the information that you gain
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Informacija koju prikupite
06:08
is going to be worth more
than one pretty good dinner.
than one pretty good dinner.
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će biti puno važnija nego
jedna jako dobra večera.
jedna jako dobra večera.
06:12
Computer science can also help
to make it easier on us
to make it easier on us
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Računalna znanost nam također može
pomoći i olakšati stvari,
pomoći i olakšati stvari,
06:14
in other places at home and in the office.
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bilo kod kuće ili u uredu.
06:17
If you've ever had
to tidy up your wardrobe,
to tidy up your wardrobe,
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Ako ste ikad trebali pospremiti ormare,
06:20
you've run into a particularly
agonizing decision:
agonizing decision:
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naletjeli ste na posebno očajan zahtjev:
06:23
you have to decide what things
you're going to keep
you're going to keep
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morali ste odlučiti
koju ćete odjeću zadržati,
koju ćete odjeću zadržati,
06:25
and what things you're going to give away.
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a koju ćete dati nekome.
06:27
Martha Stewart turns out
to have thought very hard about this --
to have thought very hard about this --
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Martha Stewart je jako puno
razmišljala o tome --
razmišljala o tome --
06:30
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
06:32
and she has some good advice.
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i ima prilično dobrih savjeta.
06:33
She says, "Ask yourself four questions:
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Kaže: "Pitajte se četiri pitanja:
06:36
How long have I had it?
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Koliko dugo to već imam?
06:37
Does it still function?
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Može li se koristiti?
06:39
Is it a duplicate
of something that I already own?
of something that I already own?
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Je li slično nečemu što također već imam?
06:42
And when was the last time
I wore it or used it?"
I wore it or used it?"
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Kad sam zadnji put to obukla?"
06:46
But there's another group of experts
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No, postoji i druga grupa stručnjaka
06:48
who perhaps thought
even harder about this problem,
even harder about this problem,
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koji su se još više udubili u ovaj problem,
06:51
and they would say one of these questions
is more important than the others.
is more important than the others.
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i oni bi rekli da je jedno od tih pitanja
puno važnije od ostalih.
puno važnije od ostalih.
06:55
Those experts?
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Ovi stručnjaci?
06:57
The people who design
the memory systems of computers.
the memory systems of computers.
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Ljudi koji su osmislili sustave
računalnog pamćenja.
računalnog pamćenja.
07:00
Most computers have
two kinds of memory systems:
two kinds of memory systems:
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Većina računala ima dva sustava pamćenja:
07:02
a fast memory system,
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brzi sustav pamćenja,
07:03
like a set of memory chips
that has limited capacity,
that has limited capacity,
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poput kompleta memorijskih čipova
ograničenog kapaciteta
ograničenog kapaciteta
07:07
because those chips are expensive,
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jer su ti čipovi skupi,
07:09
and a slow memory system,
which is much larger.
which is much larger.
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i spori sustav pamćenja koji je puno veći.
07:13
In order for the computer to operate
as efficiently as possible,
as efficiently as possible,
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Kako bi računalo radilo što djelotvornije,
07:16
you want to make sure
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želite biti sigurni
07:17
that the pieces of information
you want to access
you want to access
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da su dijelovi informacija
kojima želite pristupiti
kojima želite pristupiti
07:19
are in the fast memory system,
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u brzom sustavu pamćenja,
07:21
so that you can get to them quickly.
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kako biste brzo došli do njih.
07:23
Each time you access
a piece of information,
a piece of information,
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Svaki put kad posegnete
za dijelom informacije,
za dijelom informacije,
07:25
it's loaded into the fast memory
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ona se učitava u brzu memoriju,
07:26
and the computer has to decide which item
it has to remove from that memory,
it has to remove from that memory,
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3877
a računalo treba odlučiti koji dio mora
maknuti iz te memorije
maknuti iz te memorije
07:30
because it has limited capacity.
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1741
jer je ona ograničenog kapaciteta.
07:33
Over the years,
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Tijekom godina
07:34
computer scientists have tried
a few different strategies
a few different strategies
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računalni znanstvenici su pokušali
drugačije strategije
drugačije strategije
07:37
for deciding what to remove
from the fast memory.
from the fast memory.
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za odlučivanje o tome što maknuti iz
brze memorije.
brze memorije.
07:40
They've tried things like choosing
something at random
something at random
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Pokušali su ideje poput slučajnog odabira
07:43
or applying what's called
the "first-in, first-out principle,"
the "first-in, first-out principle,"
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ili primjenu načela koje se naziva
"prvi unutra, prvi van",
"prvi unutra, prvi van",
07:46
which means removing the item
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koji zahtijeva da se makne onaj dio
07:47
which has been in the memory
for the longest.
for the longest.
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koji je najduže bio u memoriji.
07:50
But the strategy that's most effective
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2713
No, najdjelotvornija je strategija
07:52
focuses on the items
which have been least recently used.
which have been least recently used.
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3229
koja se usredotočila na dijelove koji
nisu bili korišteni u bliskoj prošlosti.
nisu bili korišteni u bliskoj prošlosti.
07:56
This says if you're going to decide
to remove something from memory,
to remove something from memory,
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Ona kaže da, ako želite
nešto maknuti iz pamćenja,
nešto maknuti iz pamćenja,
08:00
you should take out the thing which was
last accessed the furthest in the past.
last accessed the furthest in the past.
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onda to trebate napraviti s onim dijelom
koji je korišten daleko u prošlosti.
koji je korišten daleko u prošlosti.
08:05
And there's a certain
kind of logic to this.
kind of logic to this.
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2159
Postoji određena logika za to.
08:07
If it's been a long time since you last
accessed that piece of information,
accessed that piece of information,
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Prošlo je dosta vremena otkad ste zadnji
put pristupili tom dijelu informacije
put pristupili tom dijelu informacije
08:10
it's probably going to be a long time
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pa je vjerojatno da će proći dugo vremena
08:12
before you're going to need
to access it again.
to access it again.
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2192
prije nego ćete ga ponovno trebati.
08:15
Your wardrobe is just like
the computer's memory.
the computer's memory.
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2774
Vaš ormar je baš poput računalne memorije.
08:18
You have limited capacity,
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2030
Imate ograničeni kapacitet
08:20
and you need to try and get in there
the things that you're most likely to need
the things that you're most likely to need
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5327
i trebate pokušati u njega ugurati one
stvari koje ćete najvjerojatnije trebati
stvari koje ćete najvjerojatnije trebati
08:25
so that you can get to them
as quickly as possible.
as quickly as possible.
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2419
kako biste do njih došli
što je prije moguće.
što je prije moguće.
08:29
Recognizing that,
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1151
Svjesni toga,
08:30
maybe it's worth applying
the least recently used principle
the least recently used principle
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2813
možda vrijedi primjeniti
načelo nedavnog korištenja
načelo nedavnog korištenja
08:33
to organizing your wardrobe as well.
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1949
i za organizaciju ormara.
08:35
So if we go back
to Martha's four questions,
to Martha's four questions,
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2082
Ako se vratimo na četiri pitanja koja
je postavila Martha,
je postavila Martha,
08:37
the computer scientists
would say that of these,
would say that of these,
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računalni znanstvenici bi rekli
da je od njih
da je od njih
08:39
the last one is the most important.
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1941
posljednje pitanje najvažnije.
08:43
This idea of organizing things
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2055
Ta ideja o organizaciji stvari
08:45
so that the things you are most
likely to need are most accessible
likely to need are most accessible
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3129
tako da su stvari koje ćete najvjerojatnije
trebati najdostupnije,
trebati najdostupnije,
08:48
can also be applied in your office.
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1676
može se primijeniti i u vašem uredu.
08:51
The Japanese economist Yukio Noguchi
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1930
Japanski ekonomist Yukio Noguchi
08:53
actually invented a filing system
that has exactly this property.
that has exactly this property.
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3055
je izmislio sustav arhiviranja koji ima
upravo to svojstvo.
upravo to svojstvo.
08:57
He started with a cardboard box,
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1609
Započeo je s kartonskom kutijom
08:58
and he put his documents into the box
from the left-hand side.
from the left-hand side.
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2940
u koju je stavio dokumente
s lijeve strane na desnu.
s lijeve strane na desnu.
09:02
Each time he'd add a document,
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1434
Svaki put kad je dodao dokument,
09:03
he'd move what was in there along
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1621
pomaknuo bi već posložene dokumente
09:05
and he'd add that document
to the left-hand side of the box.
to the left-hand side of the box.
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2810
i dodao taj dokument u kutiju
s lijeve strane.
s lijeve strane.
09:08
And each time he accessed
a document, he'd take it out,
a document, he'd take it out,
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I svaki put kad bi trebao neki dokument,
izvukao bi ga van,
izvukao bi ga van,
09:10
consult it and put it back in
on the left-hand side.
on the left-hand side.
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proučio ga i vratio u kutiju s lijeve strane.
09:13
As a result, the documents would be
ordered from left to right
ordered from left to right
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Posljedica je da su dokumenti poslagani
slijeva na desno
slijeva na desno
09:16
by how recently they had been used.
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1761
prema tome koliko nedavno su korišteni.
09:18
And he found he could quickly find
what he was looking for
what he was looking for
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2774
Shvatio je da može brzo pronaći
ono što traži
ono što traži
09:21
by starting at the left-hand
side of the box
side of the box
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2054
ako krene tražiti s lijeve strane kutije
09:23
and working his way to the right.
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1572
i nastavi prema desnoj strani.
09:25
Before you dash home
and implement this filing system --
and implement this filing system --
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Prije nego otrčite kući kako biste
primijenili ovaj sustav,
primijenili ovaj sustav,
09:27
(Laughter)
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1731
(Smijeh)
09:29
it's worth recognizing
that you probably already have.
that you probably already have.
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2638
važno je napomenuti da ste to već
vjerojatno napravili.
vjerojatno napravili.
09:32
(Laughter)
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3310
(Smijeh)
09:36
That pile of papers on your desk ...
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Ta hrpa papira na vašem stolu --
09:39
typically maligned
as messy and disorganized,
as messy and disorganized,
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2474
obično oklevetana kao neuredna
i neorganizirana,
i neorganizirana,
09:41
a pile of papers is, in fact,
perfectly organized --
perfectly organized --
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2565
je zapravo savršeno organizirana --
09:44
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
09:45
as long as you, when you take a paper out,
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2014
sve dok, nakon što papir
koji ste iz nje izvadili,
koji ste iz nje izvadili,
09:47
put it back on the top of the pile,
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2432
vratite na vrh hrpe
09:49
then those papers are going
to be ordered from top to bottom
to be ordered from top to bottom
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pa će ti papiri biti poredani
od vrha prema dnu
od vrha prema dnu
09:52
by how recently they were used,
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1552
prema načelu nedavnog korištenja,
09:54
and you can probably quickly find
what you're looking for
what you're looking for
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2701
a vi, vjerojatno, možete
brzo pronaći ono što tražite
brzo pronaći ono što tražite
09:56
by starting at the top of the pile.
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1700
ako krenete tražiti s vrha.
09:59
Organizing your wardrobe or your desk
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1848
Organizirati ormar, odnosno vaš stol,
10:01
are probably not the most pressing
problems in your life.
problems in your life.
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vjerojatno nisu najvažniji problemi
u vašem životu.
u vašem životu.
10:05
Sometimes the problems we have to solve
are simply very, very hard.
are simply very, very hard.
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Ponekad su problemi koje
trebamo riješiti vrlo, vrlo teški.
trebamo riješiti vrlo, vrlo teški.
10:09
But even in those cases,
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Ali čak i u takvim slučajevima,
10:10
computer science can offer some strategies
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2021
računalna znanost može
ponuditi neke strategije
ponuditi neke strategije
10:12
and perhaps some solace.
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i možda malo utjehe.
10:16
The best algorithms are about doing
what makes the most sense
what makes the most sense
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Najbolji algoritmi su oni
koji imaju najviše smisla
koji imaju najviše smisla
10:19
in the least amount of time.
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1502
u najmanje vremena.
10:22
When computers face hard problems,
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1958
Kad računala naiđu na problem,
10:24
they deal with them by making them
into simpler problems --
into simpler problems --
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2762
nose se s njim tako da ga rastave
na manje probleme --
na manje probleme --
10:27
by making use of randomness,
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1346
koristeći slučajan odabir,
10:28
by removing constraints
or by allowing approximations.
or by allowing approximations.
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3817
uklanjanjem ograničenja ili dopuštajući
približne vrijednosti.
približne vrijednosti.
10:32
Solving those simpler problems
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Rješavanje tih jednostavnijih problema
10:34
can give you insight
into the harder problems,
into the harder problems,
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vam može dati uvid
u rješavanje onih težih
u rješavanje onih težih
10:37
and sometimes produces
pretty good solutions in their own right.
pretty good solutions in their own right.
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3031
i ponekad dovode do prilično dobrih
rješenja u zadanim okvirima.
rješenja u zadanim okvirima.
10:41
Knowing all of this has helped me
to relax when I have to make decisions.
to relax when I have to make decisions.
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Znajući to, bilo mi je lakše opustiti se
kod donošenja odluka.
kod donošenja odluka.
10:45
You could take the 37 percent rule
for finding a home as an example.
for finding a home as an example.
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Možete, na primjer, uzeti pravilo 37%
za pronalaženje doma.
za pronalaženje doma.
10:49
There's no way that you can
consider all of the options,
consider all of the options,
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Nema načina da uzmete u obzir
sve mogućnosti
sve mogućnosti
10:51
so you have to take a chance.
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pa morate riskirati.
10:53
And even if you follow
the optimal strategy,
the optimal strategy,
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Čak i korištenje optimalne strategije
10:56
you're not guaranteed a perfect outcome.
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1931
vam ne jamči savršen ishod.
10:59
If you follow the 37 percent rule,
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Ako se služite pravilom 37%,
11:01
the probability that you find
the very best place is --
the very best place is --
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vjerojatnost da ćete pronaći
najbolje mjesto je --
najbolje mjesto je --
11:04
funnily enough ...
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1508
zabavno, zar ne? --
11:06
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
11:07
37 percent.
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1420
37 posto.
11:09
You fail most of the time.
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Griješite većinu vremena.
11:12
But that's the best that you can do.
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1744
No, to je najbolje što možete učiniti.
11:14
Ultimately, computer science
can help to make us more forgiving
can help to make us more forgiving
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3052
Konačno, računalna znanost nam može
pomoći da postanemo blaži
pomoći da postanemo blaži
11:17
of our own limitations.
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1909
prema našim vlastitim ograničenjima.
11:20
You can't control outcomes,
just processes.
just processes.
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2539
Ne možete kontrolirati ishode,
samo procese.
samo procese.
11:22
And as long as you've used
the best process,
the best process,
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2119
I dok god koristite najbolje procese,
11:25
you've done the best that you can.
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1763
učinili ste najbolje što možete.
11:26
Sometimes those best processes
involve taking a chance --
involve taking a chance --
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3688
Ponekad najbolji procesi zahtijevaju
i nešto rizika --
i nešto rizika --
11:30
not considering all of your options,
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2115
jer nisu uzete u obzir sve mogućnosti,
11:32
or being willing to settle
for a pretty good solution.
for a pretty good solution.
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ili volja da se odlučite
za prilično dobro rješenje.
za prilično dobro rješenje.
11:35
These aren't the concessions
that we make when we can't be rational --
that we make when we can't be rational --
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Nisu to ustupci koje radimo kada
ne možemo biti racionalni --
ne možemo biti racionalni --
11:38
they're what being rational means.
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oni, zapravo, predstavljaju racionalnost.
11:40
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
11:42
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Tom Griffiths - Psychologist, cognitive scientistTom Griffiths uses ideas from computer science to understand how human minds work.
Why you should listen
Tom Griffiths's research explores connections between natural and artificial intelligence to discover how people solve the challenging computational problems they encounter in everyday life. Currently the Henry R. Luce Professor of Information Technology, Consciousness, and Culture at Princeton University, his work has received awards from organizations ranging from the American Psychological Association to the Sloan Foundation.
In 2016, Griffiths and his friend and collaborator Brian Christian published Algorithms to Live By, a book that illustrates how understanding the algorithms used by computers can inform human decision-making (and vice versa). The book was named one of the Amazon.com "Best Science Books of 2016" and appeared on Forbes's "Must-read brain books of 2016" list as well as the MIT Technology Review's "Best books of 2016" list.
Tom Griffiths | Speaker | TED.com