ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Tom Griffiths - Psychologist, cognitive scientist
Tom Griffiths uses ideas from computer science to understand how human minds work.

Why you should listen

Tom Griffiths's research explores connections between natural and artificial intelligence to discover how people solve the challenging computational problems they encounter in everyday life. Currently the Henry R. Luce Professor of Information Technology, Consciousness, and Culture at Princeton University, his work has received awards from organizations ranging from the American Psychological Association to the Sloan Foundation.

In 2016, Griffiths and his friend and collaborator Brian Christian published Algorithms to Live By, a book that illustrates how understanding the algorithms used by computers can inform human decision-making (and vice versa). The book was named one of the Amazon.com "Best Science Books of 2016" and appeared on Forbes's "Must-read brain books of 2016" list as well as the MIT Technology Review's "Best books of 2016" list.

More profile about the speaker
Tom Griffiths | Speaker | TED.com
TEDxSydney

Tom Griffiths: 3 ways to make better decisions -- by thinking like a computer

汤姆 · 格里菲斯: 帮助你优化决策的3个方法——像电脑一样思考

Filmed:
3,652,976 views

如果你曾在决定时十分纠结,这个演讲就是为你打造的。认知科学家汤姆 · 格里菲斯向我们展示了如何把电脑的逻辑应用在解决人类问题上,并分享了帮你做出更优决策的三个方法——从寻找居所,到决定去哪个餐厅吃晚餐。
- Psychologist, cognitive scientist
Tom Griffiths uses ideas from computer science to understand how human minds work. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:13
If there's one city in the world世界
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如果世界上有个城市
00:15
where it's hard to find
a place地点 to buy购买 or rent出租,
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很难买房或者租房,
它就是悉尼。
00:17
it's Sydney悉尼.
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00:19
And if you've tried试着
to find a home here recently最近,
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如果你最近在找地方安家,
你一定对此深有感触。
00:21
you're familiar with the problem问题.
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每次你走进一个对公众开放的待售房,
00:23
Every一切 time you walk步行 into an open打开 house,
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就会了解到市场上
00:25
you get some information信息
about what's out there
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相关的信息,
00:27
and what's on the market市场,
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00:28
but every一切 time you walk步行 out,
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但每次你从房子里走出去,
00:30
you're running赛跑 the risk风险
of the very best最好 place地点 passing通过 you by.
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就冒着错过最好房子的风险。
那么你怎么知道何时从单纯的寻找,
00:33
So how do you know when
to switch开关 from looking
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00:36
to being存在 ready准备 to make an offer提供?
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转向准备出手呢?
00:39
This is such这样 a cruel残忍 and familiar problem问题
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这个如此残酷和熟悉的问题
00:42
that it might威力 come as a surprise
that it has a simple简单 solution.
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却可能有个让人惊讶的简单解决方案。
00:45
37 percent百分.
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37%。
(笑声)
00:46
(Laughter笑声)
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00:48
If you want to maximize最大化 the probability可能性
that you find the very best最好 place地点,
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如果你想要最大化找到最佳居所的概率,
00:52
you should look at 37 percent百分
of what's on the market市场,
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就应该把市场上37%的房子看完,
然后在你看到的下一个地方出价,
00:55
and then make an offer提供
on the next下一个 place地点 you see,
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这个地方要比你目前看过的都要更好。
00:57
which哪一个 is better than anything
that you've seen看到 so far.
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01:00
Or if you're looking for a month,
take 37 percent百分 of that time --
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或者假如你要花一个月的时间
寻找,拿出37%的时间——
01:04
11 days, to set a standard标准 --
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11天,来建立标准——
然后就可以准备行动了。
01:07
and then you're ready准备 to act法案.
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01:09
We know this because
trying to find a place地点 to live生活
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我们知道这点是因为尝试找到好的居所
01:12
is an example of an optimal最佳
stopping停止 problem问题.
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是“最优停止问题”的一个案例。
这是数学家和计算机科学家
01:14
A class of problems问题 that has been
studied研究 extensively广泛
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广泛研究的一类问题。
01:17
by mathematicians数学家 and computer电脑 scientists科学家们.
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01:21
I'm a computational计算 cognitive认知 scientist科学家.
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我是个计算认知科学家。
01:24
I spend my time trying to understand理解
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我把时间都花在理解
01:26
how it is that human人的 minds头脑 work,
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人们的头脑如何工作上面,
从我们的惊人成就,到令人叹息的失败。
01:27
from our amazing惊人 successes成功
to our dismal惨淡 failures故障.
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01:32
To do that, I think about
the computational计算 structure结构体
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为此,我会考虑日常生活中
出现的问题的计算结构,
01:35
of the problems问题
that arise出现 in everyday每天 life,
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01:37
and compare比较 the ideal理想
solutions解决方案 to those problems问题
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并把这些问题的理想解决方案
与我们实际会做出的行为相比较。
01:40
to the way that we actually其实 behave表现.
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01:42
As a side effect影响,
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作为副产品,
我还发现了如何利用一点计算科学知识
01:43
I get to see how applying应用
a little bit of computer电脑 science科学
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让人类更轻松地做出决策。
01:46
can make human人的 decision-making做决定 easier更轻松.
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01:49
I have a personal个人 motivation动机 for this.
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对此,我有一个私人动机。
01:52
Growing生长 up in Perth珀斯
as an overly过于 cerebral颅内 kid孩子 ...
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作为在珀斯长大的一个过度理智的孩子…
01:55
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
我总试着用我觉得理性的方式行事,
02:00
I would always try and act法案 in the way
that I thought was rational合理的,
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02:03
reasoning推理 through通过 every一切 decision决定,
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对每一个决定进行推理,
02:04
trying to figure数字 out
the very best最好 action行动 to take.
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想要算出要采取的最佳行动。
02:07
But this is an approach途径
that doesn't scale规模 up
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但这种方法无法扩展到
你开始在成人生活中
02:10
when you start开始 to run into
the sorts排序 of problems问题
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遇到的各种问题。
02:12
that arise出现 in adult成人 life.
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有一次,我甚至想和我女友分手,
02:13
At one point, I even tried试着
to break打破 up with my girlfriend女朋友
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只因为我在考虑如何在
她的喜好和我的喜好中
02:16
because trying to take into account帐户
her preferences优先 as well as my own拥有
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寻找最佳的折中方案——
02:20
and then find perfect完善 solutions解决方案 --
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(笑声)
02:21
(Laughter笑声)
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02:24
was just leaving离开 me exhausted.
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而最后却搞得我精疲力尽。
(笑声)
02:25
(Laughter笑声)
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她指出我解决这个问题的方法
02:28
She pointed out that I was taking服用
the wrong错误 approach途径
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是错误的——
02:30
to solving this problem问题 --
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后来她成为了我的妻子。
02:32
and she later后来 became成为 my wife妻子.
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(笑声)
02:33
(Laughter笑声)
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(鼓掌)
02:36
(Applause掌声)
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02:40
Whether是否 it's as basic基本 as trying to decide决定
what restaurant餐厅 to go to
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不管是去哪家餐厅这样的小决策,
02:44
or as important重要 as trying to decide决定
who to spend the rest休息 of your life with,
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还是重要到需要决定与谁度过余生,
人类的生活总是面临着各种
02:48
human人的 lives生活 are filled填充
with computational计算 problems问题
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很难靠单纯的努力来解决的计算问题。
02:50
that are just too hard to solve解决
by applying应用 sheer绝对 effort功夫.
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02:55
For those problems问题,
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面对这些问题,
咨询专家是个不错的选择:
02:56
it's worth价值 consulting咨询 the experts专家:
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02:58
computer电脑 scientists科学家们.
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我说的是计算机科学家。
03:00
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
03:01
When you're looking for life advice忠告,
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当你寻找生活中的建议时,
03:03
computer电脑 scientists科学家们 probably大概 aren't
the first people you think to talk to.
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计算机科学家可能不是你首选的谈话对象。
像电脑一样生活——
03:07
Living活的 life like a computer电脑 --
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一成不变的确定性,详尽和准确——
03:09
stereotypically刻板印象 deterministic确定性,
exhaustive详细 and exact精确 --
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03:11
doesn't sound声音 like a lot of fun开玩笑.
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听起来挺无趣的。
03:14
But thinking思维 about the computer电脑 science科学
of human人的 decisions决定
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但研究人类决策的计算机科学
03:17
reveals揭示 that in fact事实,
we've我们已经 got this backwards向后.
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揭示了这样一个事实,我们把它搞反了。
03:19
When applied应用的 to the sorts排序
of difficult problems问题
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当处理人们生活中遇到的
03:21
that arise出现 in human人的 lives生活,
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各种难题时,
计算机解决这些问题的方式
03:23
the way that computers电脑
actually其实 solve解决 those problems问题
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03:25
looks容貌 a lot more like the way
that people really act法案.
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跟人类真实行为非常相似。
03:29
Take the example of trying to decide决定
what restaurant餐厅 to go to.
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拿试图决定去哪个餐厅为例。
03:33
This is a problem问题 that has
a particular特定 computational计算 structure结构体.
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这个一个有着特定计算结构的问题。
你有一组选项,
03:36
You've got a set of options选项,
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需要在这些选项中选择一个,
03:37
you're going to choose选择
one of those options选项,
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并且明天你将会面对同样的决定。
03:39
and you're going to face面对
exactly究竟 the same相同 decision决定 tomorrow明天.
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在那种情况下,
03:42
In that situation情况,
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你遇到了计算机科学中所谓的
03:43
you run up against反对
what computer电脑 scientists科学家们 call
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“探索与利用的权衡”。
03:46
the "explore-exploit探索开发 trade-off交易."
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03:49
You have to make a decision决定
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你需要在
尝试新的——
03:50
about whether是否 you're going
to try something new --
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即探索,收集
03:52
exploring探索, gathering搜集 some information信息
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你将来能够使用的信息——
03:55
that you might威力 be able能够
to use in the future未来 --
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或者去那个已知的非常好的
地方之间做出选择——
03:57
or whether是否 you're going to go to a place地点
that you already已经 know is pretty漂亮 good --
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利用你目前已经收集到的信息。
04:01
exploiting利用 the information信息
that you've already已经 gathered云集 so far.
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04:05
The explore探索/exploit利用 trade-off交易
shows节目 up any time you have to choose选择
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“探索与利用的权衡”出现在每一次
你需要在尝试新的
04:08
between之间 trying something new
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和已知的优质体验之间作出选择,
04:09
and going with something
that you already已经 know is pretty漂亮 good,
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不管是听音乐
04:12
whether是否 it's listening to music音乐
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还是决定要跟谁聚会。
04:14
or trying to decide决定
who you're going to spend time with.
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科技公司也会面临同样的问题,
04:17
It's also the problem问题
that technology技术 companies公司 face面对
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当他们需要决定比如应该在
网页上展示什么广告时。
04:19
when they're trying to do something
like decide决定 what ad广告 to show显示 on a web卷筒纸 page.
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他们是应该展现新广告,并从中学习呢,
04:23
Should they show显示 a new ad广告
and learn学习 something about it,
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还是给你展现那个
04:26
or should they show显示 you an ad广告
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他们已经知道你很可能会点击的广告呢?
04:27
that they already已经 know there's a good
chance机会 you're going to click点击 on?
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在过去60年中,
04:30
Over the last 60 years年份,
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计算机科学家在理解探索与利用的权衡
04:31
computer电脑 scientists科学家们 have made制作
a lot of progress进展 understanding理解
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上面取得了很大的进展,
04:34
the explore探索/exploit利用 trade-off交易,
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而且他们的研究给出了
一些让人惊讶的洞察。
04:36
and their results结果 offer提供
some surprising奇怪 insights见解.
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04:39
When you're trying to decide决定
what restaurant餐厅 to go to,
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当你在决定去哪家餐厅时,
你应该问自己的第一个问题是,
04:41
the first question you should ask yourself你自己
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你还要在城里呆多久。
04:43
is how much longer
you're going to be in town.
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04:46
If you're just going to be there
for a short time,
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如果你在那里只是短暂的停留,
那么你就应该享受(“利用”)。
04:48
then you should exploit利用.
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收集信息没有意义。
04:50
There's no point gathering搜集 information信息.
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只需要直接去那家你喜欢的餐厅。
04:52
Just go to a place地点
you already已经 know is good.
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但如果你会呆很长的时间,
那就花点时间“探索”。
04:54
But if you're going to be there
for a longer time, explore探索.
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试试新的餐厅,因为你收集的信息
04:57
Try something new,
because the information信息 you get
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可以在未来优化你的选择。
04:59
is something that can improve提高
your choices选择 in the future未来.
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有价值的信息增多了,
05:02
The value of information信息 increases增加
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你将来使用它的机会也越多。
05:04
the more opportunities机会
you're going to have to use it.
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05:08
This principle原理 can give us insight眼光
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这个原则也可以帮助我们深入理解
05:09
into the structure结构体
of a human人的 life as well.
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人类生命的结构。
05:13
Babies婴儿 don't have a reputation声誉
for being存在 particularly尤其 rational合理的.
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婴儿并不是理性的代名词。
05:17
They're always trying new things,
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他们总在尝试新东西,
比如,什么东西都想往嘴里塞。
05:18
and you know, trying to stick them
in their mouths嘴巴.
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05:22
But in fact事实, this is exactly究竟
what they should be doing.
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事实上,这一行为非常合理。
他们正处于生命中的探索阶段,
05:25
They're in the explore探索
phase of their lives生活,
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这些东西可能正好是美味的。
05:28
and some of those things
could turn out to be delicious美味的.
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05:32
At the other end结束 of the spectrum光谱,
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相反,
老人总是去同样的餐厅,
05:33
the old guy who always goes
to the same相同 restaurant餐厅
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吃同样的东西,
05:36
and always eats the same相同 thing
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这跟单调的行为无关——
05:37
isn't boring无聊 --
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只是最优选择罢了。
05:39
he's optimal最佳.
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05:40
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
他正在利用一生中
05:44
He's exploiting利用 the knowledge知识
that he's earned
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05:46
through通过 a lifetime's一辈子的 experience经验.
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所积累的知识。
05:50
More generally通常,
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更一般的情况下,
了解“探索与利用的权衡”这一原则,
05:51
knowing会心 about
the explore探索/exploit利用 trade-off交易
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可以让你在尝试做选择时
05:53
can make it a little easier更轻松 for you
to sort分类 of relax放松 and go easier更轻松 on yourself你自己
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感到更轻松。
05:57
when you're trying to make a decision决定.
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你不需要每晚都去最佳餐厅。
05:59
You don't have to go
to the best最好 restaurant餐厅 every一切 night.
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找个机会,试试新的,探索一番。
06:01
Take a chance机会, try something new, explore探索.
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你可能会有新的发现。
06:04
You might威力 learn学习 something.
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你获取的信息
06:06
And the information信息 that you gain获得
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会比一顿美味的晚餐更有价值。
06:08
is going to be worth价值 more
than one pretty漂亮 good dinner晚餐.
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06:12
Computer电脑 science科学 can also help
to make it easier更轻松 on us
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计算机科学也可以帮助我们
在家和工作场所的其他地方
06:14
in other places地方 at home and in the office办公室.
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更轻松地做出决策。
06:17
If you've ever had
to tidy整洁 up your wardrobe衣柜,
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如果你有需要整理衣橱的经历,
你就已经遇到了一个非常痛苦的决定:
06:20
you've run into a particularly尤其
agonizing折腾 decision决定:
145
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你得决定哪些东西要留下来,
06:23
you have to decide决定 what things
you're going to keep
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哪些东西要丢掉。
06:25
and what things you're going to give away.
147
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06:27
Martha玛莎 Stewart斯图尔特 turns out
to have thought very hard about this --
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玛莎 · 斯图尔特曾经
非常认真地思考过这个问题——
(笑声)
06:30
(Laughter笑声)
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而且她有一些好建议。
06:32
and she has some good advice忠告.
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她说,“问你自己4个问题:
06:33
She says, "Ask yourself你自己 four questions问题:
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我拥有这件东西多长时间了?
06:36
How long have I had it?
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它仍然完好吗?
06:37
Does it still function功能?
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我还有其他类似的东西吗?
06:39
Is it a duplicate重复
of something that I already已经 own拥有?
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我上次穿它或用它是什么时候?”
06:42
And when was the last time
I wore穿着 it or used it?"
155
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06:46
But there's another另一个 group of experts专家
156
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1715
但还有另一群专家
对这个问题的思考更加深入,
06:48
who perhaps也许 thought
even harder更难 about this problem问题,
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他们会说,其中一个问题
比其他问题更重要。
06:51
and they would say one of these questions问题
is more important重要 than the others其他.
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06:55
Those experts专家?
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这些专家是谁呢?
06:57
The people who design设计
the memory记忆 systems系统 of computers电脑.
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就是设计计算机内存系统的人。
大部分电脑有两种类型的内存系统:
07:00
Most computers电脑 have
two kinds of memory记忆 systems系统:
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07:02
a fast快速 memory记忆 system系统,
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快速存储系统,
07:03
like a set of memory记忆 chips芯片
that has limited有限 capacity容量,
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如一组容量有限的内存芯片,
07:07
because those chips芯片 are expensive昂贵,
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因为这些芯片非常昂贵,
07:09
and a slow memory记忆 system系统,
which哪一个 is much larger.
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还有慢速存储系统,但容量更大。
07:13
In order订购 for the computer电脑 to operate操作
as efficiently有效率的 as possible可能,
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3000
为了让电脑工作效率尽可能高,
你想要确保
07:16
you want to make sure
167
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你需要获取的一段信息
07:17
that the pieces of information信息
you want to access访问
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在快速存储系统中,
07:19
are in the fast快速 memory记忆 system系统,
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这样就可以快速获取它们。
07:21
so that you can get to them quickly很快.
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每次你获取一段信息,
07:23
Each time you access访问
a piece of information信息,
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该信息就会进入快速存储中,
07:25
it's loaded into the fast快速 memory记忆
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而电脑需要决定哪些信息
需要从那个存储中移除,
07:26
and the computer电脑 has to decide决定 which哪一个 item项目
it has to remove去掉 from that memory记忆,
173
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07:30
because it has limited有限 capacity容量.
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因为它的容量有限。
07:33
Over the years年份,
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多年来,
计算机科学家试了几种不同的策略
07:34
computer电脑 scientists科学家们 have tried试着
a few少数 different不同 strategies策略
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来决定应该从快速存储中移除什么。
07:37
for deciding决定 what to remove去掉
from the fast快速 memory记忆.
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他们试过比如随机选择,
07:40
They've他们已经 tried试着 things like choosing选择
something at random随机
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或是应用“先进先出”原则,
07:43
or applying应用 what's called
the "first-in第一英寸, first-out首发 principle原理,"
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意思是移除
07:46
which哪一个 means手段 removing去除 the item项目
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被储存时间最长的信息。
07:47
which哪一个 has been in the memory记忆
for the longest最长.
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07:50
But the strategy战略 that's most effective有效
182
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但最有效的策略是,
07:52
focuses重点 on the items项目
which哪一个 have been least最小 recently最近 used.
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聚焦那些最近最少被使用的条目。
07:56
This says if you're going to decide决定
to remove去掉 something from memory记忆,
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也就是说,如果你打算从存储中删掉点什么,
就应该移除距离最近一次访问最久的内容。
08:00
you should take out the thing which哪一个 was
last accessed访问 the furthest最远 in the past过去.
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这显然是合乎逻辑的做法。
08:05
And there's a certain某些
kind of logic逻辑 to this.
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假如你上次访问那段信息
是在很久以前了,
08:07
If it's been a long time since以来 you last
accessed访问 that piece of information信息,
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那么你也很可能在很久之后才会
08:10
it's probably大概 going to be a long time
188
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再次需要访问这段信息。
08:12
before you're going to need
to access访问 it again.
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08:15
Your wardrobe衣柜 is just like
the computer's电脑 memory记忆.
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你的衣柜就像计算机的内存。
衣橱的容量有限,
08:18
You have limited有限 capacity容量,
191
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2030
你需要尽量把最常用的东西放进去,
08:20
and you need to try and get in there
the things that you're most likely容易 to need
192
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这样你就会尽可能快速地得到它。
08:25
so that you can get to them
as quickly很快 as possible可能.
193
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08:29
Recognizing识别 that,
194
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认识到这点,
也许值得应用“最近最少使用”原则
08:30
maybe it's worth价值 applying应用
the least最小 recently最近 used principle原理
195
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2813
来管理你的衣柜。
08:33
to organizing组织 your wardrobe衣柜 as well.
196
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1949
如果我们回到玛莎的四个问题,
08:35
So if we go back
to Martha's玛莎 four questions问题,
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计算机科学家会说,在这些问题中,
08:37
the computer电脑 scientists科学家们
would say that of these,
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最后一个是最重要的。
08:39
the last one is the most important重要.
199
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1941
08:43
This idea理念 of organizing组织 things
200
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这种管理东西的方法,
也就是让你最可能需要的东西最唾手可得,
08:45
so that the things you are most
likely容易 to need are most accessible无障碍
201
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也可以应用在你的工作中。
08:48
can also be applied应用的 in your office办公室.
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08:51
The Japanese日本 economist经济学家 Yukio幸雄 Noguchi野口
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1930
日本经济学家野口勇
08:53
actually其实 invented发明 a filing备案 system系统
that has exactly究竟 this property属性.
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3055
就发明了一个拥有该属性的文件系统。
08:57
He started开始 with a cardboard纸板 box,
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1609
他从一个纸箱开始,
然后从左手边把文件放进盒子。
08:58
and he put his documents文件 into the box
from the left-hand左手 side.
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2940
09:02
Each time he'd他会 add a document文件,
207
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1434
每次他增加一个文件,
09:03
he'd他会 move移动 what was in there along沿
208
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1621
他会把里面的东西依次移动,
再把那个文件放在盒子的左手边。
09:05
and he'd他会 add that document文件
to the left-hand左手 side of the box.
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2810
每次他需要看文件,就会把它取出来,
09:08
And each time he accessed访问
a document文件, he'd他会 take it out,
210
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用完之后放到左手边的位置。
09:10
consult请教 it and put it back in
on the left-hand左手 side.
211
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2608
09:13
As a result结果, the documents文件 would be
ordered有序 from left to right
212
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3281
这样一来,文件就会根据最近使用的情况
从左到右排序。
09:16
by how recently最近 they had been used.
213
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1761
他发现只要沿着盒子的
09:18
And he found发现 he could quickly很快 find
what he was looking for
214
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2774
09:21
by starting开始 at the left-hand左手
side of the box
215
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左边到右边搜索,
就可以快速找到他要找的文件。
09:23
and working加工 his way to the right.
216
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09:25
Before you dash短跑 home
and implement实行 this filing备案 system系统 --
217
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在你赶回家尝试搭建这个文件系统前——
(笑声)
09:27
(Laughter笑声)
218
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1731
值得注意的是,你可能已经拥有它了。
09:29
it's worth价值 recognizing认识
that you probably大概 already已经 have.
219
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09:32
(Laughter笑声)
220
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(笑声)
09:36
That pile of papers文件 on your desk ...
221
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就是你桌上的那堆文件…
通常被认为是凌乱无序的
09:39
typically一般 maligned非议
as messy and disorganized杂乱无章,
222
567115
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这堆文件,实际上
已经经过了完美的整理——
09:41
a pile of papers文件 is, in fact事实,
perfectly完美 organized有组织的 --
223
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2565
(笑声)
09:44
(Laughter笑声)
224
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1000
只要你把一张纸抽出来,
09:45
as long as you, when you take a paper out,
225
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2014
用完再放回到那堆文件上面,
09:47
put it back on the top最佳 of the pile,
226
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这些文件就会从上到下
09:49
then those papers文件 are going
to be ordered有序 from top最佳 to bottom底部
227
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根据最近使用的原则排序,
09:52
by how recently最近 they were used,
228
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你就很可能在那堆文件中从上到下
09:54
and you can probably大概 quickly很快 find
what you're looking for
229
582146
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09:56
by starting开始 at the top最佳 of the pile.
230
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快速找到你要找的东西。
09:59
Organizing组织 your wardrobe衣柜 or your desk
231
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整理你的衣柜或书桌
10:01
are probably大概 not the most pressing紧迫
problems问题 in your life.
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可能不是你生活中最紧迫的问题。
10:05
Sometimes有时 the problems问题 we have to solve解决
are simply只是 very, very hard.
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有时候我们需要解决的问题非常非常难。
10:09
But even in those cases,
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但即便在这些案例中,
计算机科学也可以提供一些策略
10:10
computer电脑 science科学 can offer提供 some strategies策略
235
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2021
10:12
and perhaps也许 some solace慰藉.
236
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和些许安慰。
10:16
The best最好 algorithms算法 are about doing
what makes品牌 the most sense
237
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3075
最好的算法是在最短的时间内
10:19
in the least最小 amount of time.
238
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做最合理的事情。
10:22
When computers电脑 face面对 hard problems问题,
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1958
当电脑面对难题时,
会把它分解为简单问题——
10:24
they deal合同 with them by making制造 them
into simpler简单 problems问题 --
240
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2762
通过利用随机性,
10:27
by making制造 use of randomness随机性,
241
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消除约束或允许近似。
10:28
by removing去除 constraints限制
or by allowing允许 approximations近似值.
242
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解决这些简单问题
10:32
Solving解决 those simpler简单 problems问题
243
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10:34
can give you insight眼光
into the harder更难 problems问题,
244
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可以让你洞察更难的问题,
10:37
and sometimes有时 produces产生
pretty漂亮 good solutions解决方案 in their own拥有 right.
245
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而且有时会产生很好的解决方案。
10:41
Knowing会心 all of this has helped帮助 me
to relax放松 when I have to make decisions决定.
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知道所有这些知识可以帮助
我们在做决定时倍感轻松。
10:45
You could take the 37 percent百分 rule规则
for finding发现 a home as an example.
247
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拿37%的原则来找房子就是一个例子。
10:49
There's no way that you can
consider考虑 all of the options选项,
248
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你根本不可能考虑到所有的选项,
所以你必须碰碰运气。
10:51
so you have to take a chance机会.
249
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10:53
And even if you follow跟随
the optimal最佳 strategy战略,
250
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即便你遵循了最优策略,
也无法保证得到最佳结果。
10:56
you're not guaranteed保证 a perfect完善 outcome结果.
251
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10:59
If you follow跟随 the 37 percent百分 rule规则,
252
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2154
如果你遵循37%原则,
找到最佳居所的概率是——
11:01
the probability可能性 that you find
the very best最好 place地点 is --
253
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3279
11:04
funnily好笑 enough足够 ...
254
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这就相当有趣了...
(笑声)
11:06
(Laughter笑声)
255
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11:07
37 percent百分.
256
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37%。
11:09
You fail失败 most of the time.
257
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你大部分时间都未能如愿。
11:12
But that's the best最好 that you can do.
258
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但是你已经尽力了。
11:14
Ultimately最终,, computer电脑 science科学
can help to make us more forgiving宽容
259
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最终,计算机科学可以帮我们更宽容地
11:17
of our own拥有 limitations限制.
260
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面对自己的局限性。
11:20
You can't control控制 outcomes结果,
just processes流程.
261
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你无法控制结果,只能调整方法。
11:22
And as long as you've used
the best最好 process处理,
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只要你使用了最好的方法,
11:25
you've doneDONE the best最好 that you can.
263
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就已经尽了最大的努力。
11:26
Sometimes有时 those best最好 processes流程
involve涉及 taking服用 a chance机会 --
264
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有时候,最好的方法就是抓住机会——
不去考虑你的所有选项,
11:30
not considering考虑 all of your options选项,
265
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2115
11:32
or being存在 willing愿意 to settle解决
for a pretty漂亮 good solution.
266
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或者愿意接受一个很好的解决方案。
11:35
These aren't the concessions让步
that we make when we can't be rational合理的 --
267
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这些不是我们在无法进行
理性思考时做的让步——
它们就是理性的意义。
11:38
they're what being存在 rational合理的 means手段.
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11:40
Thank you.
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谢谢。
(鼓掌)
11:42
(Applause掌声)
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Translated by jacks jun

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Tom Griffiths - Psychologist, cognitive scientist
Tom Griffiths uses ideas from computer science to understand how human minds work.

Why you should listen

Tom Griffiths's research explores connections between natural and artificial intelligence to discover how people solve the challenging computational problems they encounter in everyday life. Currently the Henry R. Luce Professor of Information Technology, Consciousness, and Culture at Princeton University, his work has received awards from organizations ranging from the American Psychological Association to the Sloan Foundation.

In 2016, Griffiths and his friend and collaborator Brian Christian published Algorithms to Live By, a book that illustrates how understanding the algorithms used by computers can inform human decision-making (and vice versa). The book was named one of the Amazon.com "Best Science Books of 2016" and appeared on Forbes's "Must-read brain books of 2016" list as well as the MIT Technology Review's "Best books of 2016" list.

More profile about the speaker
Tom Griffiths | Speaker | TED.com

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