TEDxSydney
Tom Griffiths: 3 ways to make better decisions -- by thinking like a computer
Tom Grifits (Tom Griffiths): Tri načina za donošenje boljih odluka - razmišljanjem kao računar
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Ako ste se ikada mučili kod donošenja odluka, evo govora za vas. Kognitivni računarski naučnik Tom Grifits pokazuje kako možemo da primenimo logiku računara da razmrsimo nezgodne ljudske probleme, dajući tri praktične strategije za donošenje boljih odluka o svemu, počevši od pronalaženja doma, pa do izbora restorana u koji ćemo otići večeras.
Tom Griffiths - Psychologist, cognitive scientist
Tom Griffiths uses ideas from computer science to understand how human minds work. Full bio
Tom Griffiths uses ideas from computer science to understand how human minds work. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
If there's one city in the world
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Ako postoji grad na svetu
00:15
where it's hard to find
a place to buy or rent,
a place to buy or rent,
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gde je tešto naći stan
da se kupi ili iznajmi,
da se kupi ili iznajmi,
00:17
it's Sydney.
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to je Sidnej.
00:19
And if you've tried
to find a home here recently,
to find a home here recently,
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A ako ste nedavno pokušali
da ovde nađete dom,
da ovde nađete dom,
00:21
you're familiar with the problem.
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onda ste upoznati sa problemom.
00:23
Every time you walk into an open house,
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Svaki put kad uđete u kuću za razgledanje,
00:25
you get some information
about what's out there
about what's out there
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dobijete deo informacija
o tome šta sve postoji
o tome šta sve postoji
00:27
and what's on the market,
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i šta je na tržištu.
00:28
but every time you walk out,
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Ali svaki put kad izađete,
00:30
you're running the risk
of the very best place passing you by.
of the very best place passing you by.
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suočavate se sa rizikom
da propustite najbolje mesto.
da propustite najbolje mesto.
00:33
So how do you know when
to switch from looking
to switch from looking
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Kako onda da znate
kada da se prebacite sa razgledanja
kada da se prebacite sa razgledanja
00:36
to being ready to make an offer?
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na spremnost da date ponudu?
00:39
This is such a cruel and familiar problem
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Ovo je tako okrutan i poznat problem,
00:42
that it might come as a surprise
that it has a simple solution.
that it has a simple solution.
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pa bi moglo da bude iznenađenje
da ima jednostavno rešenje.
da ima jednostavno rešenje.
00:45
37 percent.
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Trideset sedam procenata.
00:46
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
00:48
If you want to maximize the probability
that you find the very best place,
that you find the very best place,
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Ako želite da uvećate verovatnoću
da nađete najbolje moguće mesto,
da nađete najbolje moguće mesto,
00:52
you should look at 37 percent
of what's on the market,
of what's on the market,
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trebalo bi da pogledate
37 procenata ponude na tržištu
37 procenata ponude na tržištu
00:55
and then make an offer
on the next place you see,
on the next place you see,
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i onda date ponudu
za sledeće mesto koje vidite,
za sledeće mesto koje vidite,
a koje je bolje od svega
što ste do tada videli.
što ste do tada videli.
00:57
which is better than anything
that you've seen so far.
that you've seen so far.
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01:00
Or if you're looking for a month,
take 37 percent of that time --
take 37 percent of that time --
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Ili ako tražite već mesec dana,
uzmite 37 procenata od tog vremena -
uzmite 37 procenata od tog vremena -
01:04
11 days, to set a standard --
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11 dana, da uspostavimo standard -
01:07
and then you're ready to act.
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i onda ste spremni da delate.
01:09
We know this because
trying to find a place to live
trying to find a place to live
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Znamo ovo zato što je
nalaženje mesta za život
nalaženje mesta za život
primer problema optimalnog zaustavljanja.
01:12
is an example of an optimal
stopping problem.
stopping problem.
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01:14
A class of problems that has been
studied extensively
studied extensively
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To je klasa problema
koju su detaljno proučavali
koju su detaljno proučavali
01:17
by mathematicians and computer scientists.
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matematičari i računarski stručnjaci.
01:21
I'm a computational cognitive scientist.
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Ja sam kognitivni računarski naučnik.
01:24
I spend my time trying to understand
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Provodim vreme pokušavajući da razumem
01:26
how it is that human minds work,
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kako to ljudski umovi funkcionišu,
01:27
from our amazing successes
to our dismal failures.
to our dismal failures.
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od naših neverovatnih uspeha
do naših sumornih neuspeha.
do naših sumornih neuspeha.
01:32
To do that, I think about
the computational structure
the computational structure
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Da bih uspeo u tome, razmišljam
o računarskim strukturama problema
o računarskim strukturama problema
01:35
of the problems
that arise in everyday life,
that arise in everyday life,
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koji se javljaju u svakodnevnom životu
01:37
and compare the ideal
solutions to those problems
solutions to those problems
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i upoređujem idealna
rešenja takvih problema
rešenja takvih problema
sa načinom na koji se zaista ponašamo.
01:40
to the way that we actually behave.
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01:42
As a side effect,
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Kao nuspojavu
01:43
I get to see how applying
a little bit of computer science
a little bit of computer science
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mogu da vidim kako mala
primena računarske nauke
primena računarske nauke
može da olakša ljudski način odlučivanja.
01:46
can make human decision-making easier.
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01:49
I have a personal motivation for this.
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Imam ličnu motivaciju za ovo.
01:52
Growing up in Perth
as an overly cerebral kid ...
as an overly cerebral kid ...
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Odrastajući u Pertu
kao preterano mozgovit klinac...
kao preterano mozgovit klinac...
(Smeh)
01:55
(Laughter)
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02:00
I would always try and act in the way
that I thought was rational,
that I thought was rational,
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uvek bih pokušao da delam na način
za koji sam mislio da je racionalan,
za koji sam mislio da je racionalan,
02:03
reasoning through every decision,
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promišljajući svaku odluku
02:04
trying to figure out
the very best action to take.
the very best action to take.
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u pokušaju da shvatim
šta je najbolje da preduzmem.
šta je najbolje da preduzmem.
02:07
But this is an approach
that doesn't scale up
that doesn't scale up
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Ali ovo je pristup koji ne pije vodu
kad počnete da nalećete na probleme
02:10
when you start to run into
the sorts of problems
the sorts of problems
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koji se pojavljuju u životu odraslih.
02:12
that arise in adult life.
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02:13
At one point, I even tried
to break up with my girlfriend
to break up with my girlfriend
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U jednom trenutku sam čak pokušao
da raskinem sa devojkom
da raskinem sa devojkom
jer me je pokušaj uzimanja u obzir
njenih želja, kao i sopstvenih,
njenih želja, kao i sopstvenih,
02:16
because trying to take into account
her preferences as well as my own
her preferences as well as my own
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02:20
and then find perfect solutions --
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i potom nalaženja savršenih rešenja -
02:21
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
02:24
was just leaving me exhausted.
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jednostavno ostavljao iscrpljenog.
02:25
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
02:28
She pointed out that I was taking
the wrong approach
the wrong approach
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Istakla je da sam
primenjivao pogrešan pristup
primenjivao pogrešan pristup
za rešavanje ovog problema -
02:30
to solving this problem --
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02:32
and she later became my wife.
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i kasnije mi je postala žena.
02:33
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
02:36
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
02:40
Whether it's as basic as trying to decide
what restaurant to go to
what restaurant to go to
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Bilo da je osnovno kao pokušavanje
da se odluči u koji restoran da se ide
da se odluči u koji restoran da se ide
ili bitno kao pokušaj odlučivanja
s kim da provedete ostatak svog života,
s kim da provedete ostatak svog života,
02:44
or as important as trying to decide
who to spend the rest of your life with,
who to spend the rest of your life with,
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ljudski životi su ispunjeni
računarskim problemima
računarskim problemima
02:48
human lives are filled
with computational problems
with computational problems
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02:50
that are just too hard to solve
by applying sheer effort.
by applying sheer effort.
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koji su ipak previše teški
za rešavanje kroz prosti trud.
za rešavanje kroz prosti trud.
02:55
For those problems,
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Za te probleme,
02:56
it's worth consulting the experts:
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vredi konsultovati se sa ekspertima:
računarskim stručnjacima.
02:58
computer scientists.
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03:00
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
03:01
When you're looking for life advice,
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Kada vam je potreban životni savet,
03:03
computer scientists probably aren't
the first people you think to talk to.
the first people you think to talk to.
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računarski stručnjaci verovatno
nisu prvi koji vam padaju na pamet.
nisu prvi koji vam padaju na pamet.
03:07
Living life like a computer --
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Živeti život poput računara -
03:09
stereotypically deterministic,
exhaustive and exact --
exhaustive and exact --
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stereotipno deterministički,
iscrpljujuće i egzaktno -
iscrpljujuće i egzaktno -
03:11
doesn't sound like a lot of fun.
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ne zvuči preterano zabavno.
03:14
But thinking about the computer science
of human decisions
of human decisions
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Ali razmišljanje o računarskoj
nauci ljudskog odlučivanja
nauci ljudskog odlučivanja
otkriva da u stvari ovo
posmatramo naopako.
posmatramo naopako.
03:17
reveals that in fact,
we've got this backwards.
we've got this backwards.
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03:19
When applied to the sorts
of difficult problems
of difficult problems
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Primenjeno na vrstu teških problema
u ljudskim životima,
03:21
that arise in human lives,
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način na koji računari
zapravo rešavaju takve probleme
zapravo rešavaju takve probleme
03:23
the way that computers
actually solve those problems
actually solve those problems
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03:25
looks a lot more like the way
that people really act.
that people really act.
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mnogo više liči na način
na koji ljudi zaista delaju.
na koji ljudi zaista delaju.
Uzmimo, na primer, pokušaj
odlučivanja u koji restoran da se ode.
odlučivanja u koji restoran da se ode.
03:29
Take the example of trying to decide
what restaurant to go to.
what restaurant to go to.
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03:33
This is a problem that has
a particular computational structure.
a particular computational structure.
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Ovo je problem koji ima
naročitu računarsku strukturu.
naročitu računarsku strukturu.
Imate skup izbora,
03:36
You've got a set of options,
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03:37
you're going to choose
one of those options,
one of those options,
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odabraćete jedan od tih izbora
03:39
and you're going to face
exactly the same decision tomorrow.
exactly the same decision tomorrow.
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i suočićete se sa potpuno
istom odlukom sutradan.
istom odlukom sutradan.
03:42
In that situation,
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U takvoj situaciji,
susrećete se sa nečim
što računarski stručnjaci zovu
što računarski stručnjaci zovu
03:43
you run up against
what computer scientists call
what computer scientists call
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03:46
the "explore-exploit trade-off."
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„kompromis istraživanja-iskorišćavanja“.
03:49
You have to make a decision
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Morate da donesete odluku
03:50
about whether you're going
to try something new --
to try something new --
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da li ćete isprobati nešto novo -
istraživati, prikupljati informacije
03:52
exploring, gathering some information
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koje ćete možda
iskoristititi u budućnosti -
iskoristititi u budućnosti -
03:55
that you might be able
to use in the future --
to use in the future --
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ili ćete otići na mesto
za koje već znate da je vrlo dobro -
za koje već znate da je vrlo dobro -
03:57
or whether you're going to go to a place
that you already know is pretty good --
that you already know is pretty good --
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iskorišćavajući informacije
koje ste do tada prikupili.
koje ste do tada prikupili.
04:01
exploiting the information
that you've already gathered so far.
that you've already gathered so far.
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04:05
The explore/exploit trade-off
shows up any time you have to choose
shows up any time you have to choose
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Ovaj kompromis pojavljuje se svaki put
kada morate da birate
između isprobavanja nečeg novog
između isprobavanja nečeg novog
04:08
between trying something new
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04:09
and going with something
that you already know is pretty good,
that you already know is pretty good,
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i nečega za šta već znate
da je vrlo dobro,
da je vrlo dobro,
bilo da je to slušanje muzike
04:12
whether it's listening to music
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ili pokušaj odlučivanja
s kim ćete provoditi vreme.
s kim ćete provoditi vreme.
04:14
or trying to decide
who you're going to spend time with.
who you're going to spend time with.
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Sa ovim problemom se suočavaju
i tehnološke kompanije
i tehnološke kompanije
04:17
It's also the problem
that technology companies face
that technology companies face
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kada pokušavaju da odluče
koju reklamu da pokažu na veb-stranici.
koju reklamu da pokažu na veb-stranici.
04:19
when they're trying to do something
like decide what ad to show on a web page.
like decide what ad to show on a web page.
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Da li da pokažu novu reklamu
i saznaju nešto o njoj
i saznaju nešto o njoj
04:23
Should they show a new ad
and learn something about it,
and learn something about it,
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ili da vam pokažu reklamu
04:26
or should they show you an ad
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za koju već znaju da su velike šanse
da ćete kliknuti na nju?
da ćete kliknuti na nju?
04:27
that they already know there's a good
chance you're going to click on?
chance you're going to click on?
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Tokom proteklih 60 godina,
04:30
Over the last 60 years,
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računarski stručnjaci
ostvarili su veliki napredak
ostvarili su veliki napredak
04:31
computer scientists have made
a lot of progress understanding
a lot of progress understanding
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u razumevanju kompromisa
istraživanja-iskorišćavanja,
istraživanja-iskorišćavanja,
04:34
the explore/exploit trade-off,
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04:36
and their results offer
some surprising insights.
some surprising insights.
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i njihovi rezultati nude
neke iznenađujuće uvide.
neke iznenađujuće uvide.
04:39
When you're trying to decide
what restaurant to go to,
what restaurant to go to,
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Kada pokušavate da odlučite
u koji restoran da odete,
u koji restoran da odete,
04:41
the first question you should ask yourself
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prvo pitanje koje bi trebalo da postavite
je koliko dugo ćete još ostati u gradu.
04:43
is how much longer
you're going to be in town.
you're going to be in town.
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04:46
If you're just going to be there
for a short time,
for a short time,
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Ako ćete ostati na kratko,
onda treba da iskoristite.
04:48
then you should exploit.
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04:50
There's no point gathering information.
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Nema svrhe prikupljati informacije.
Idite na mesto za koje
već znate da je dobro.
već znate da je dobro.
04:52
Just go to a place
you already know is good.
you already know is good.
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04:54
But if you're going to be there
for a longer time, explore.
for a longer time, explore.
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Ali ako ostajete
na duži period, istražujte.
na duži period, istražujte.
Isprobaje nešto novo,
zato što su informacije koje prikupite
zato što su informacije koje prikupite
04:57
Try something new,
because the information you get
because the information you get
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04:59
is something that can improve
your choices in the future.
your choices in the future.
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nešto što može da poboljša
vaše buduće izbore.
vaše buduće izbore.
05:02
The value of information increases
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Vrednost informacija se uvećava
05:04
the more opportunities
you're going to have to use it.
you're going to have to use it.
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sa brojem prilika koje ćete
imati da ih iskoristite.
imati da ih iskoristite.
05:08
This principle can give us insight
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Ovaj princip može da nam da uvid
05:09
into the structure
of a human life as well.
of a human life as well.
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i u strukturu ljudskog života.
05:13
Babies don't have a reputation
for being particularly rational.
for being particularly rational.
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Bebe ne slove za nekoga
ko je nešto posebno racionalan.
ko je nešto posebno racionalan.
05:17
They're always trying new things,
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Stalno isprobavaju nove stvari
05:18
and you know, trying to stick them
in their mouths.
in their mouths.
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i, znate, pokušavaju da ih strpaju u usta.
05:22
But in fact, this is exactly
what they should be doing.
what they should be doing.
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Međutim, ovo je upravo
ono što bi trebalo da rade.
ono što bi trebalo da rade.
05:25
They're in the explore
phase of their lives,
phase of their lives,
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One su u istraživačkoj fazi svog života,
05:28
and some of those things
could turn out to be delicious.
could turn out to be delicious.
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i neke od tih stvari bi mogle
da se ispostave ukusnim.
da se ispostave ukusnim.
05:32
At the other end of the spectrum,
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Na drugoj strani spektra,
05:33
the old guy who always goes
to the same restaurant
to the same restaurant
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starac koji uvek ide u isti restoran
05:36
and always eats the same thing
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i uvek jede isto jelo
05:37
isn't boring --
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nije dosadan -
05:39
he's optimal.
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on je optimalan.
05:40
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
05:44
He's exploiting the knowledge
that he's earned
that he's earned
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On iskorišćava znanje
koje je stekao kroz životno iskustvo.
koje je stekao kroz životno iskustvo.
05:46
through a lifetime's experience.
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05:50
More generally,
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Uopštenije, saznanje o kompromisu
istraživanja-iskorišćavanja
istraživanja-iskorišćavanja
05:51
knowing about
the explore/exploit trade-off
the explore/exploit trade-off
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može vam malo olakšati da se opustite
i manje stavljate pod pritisak
i manje stavljate pod pritisak
05:53
can make it a little easier for you
to sort of relax and go easier on yourself
to sort of relax and go easier on yourself
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kada pokušavate da donesete odluku.
05:57
when you're trying to make a decision.
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Ne morate da idete
u najbolji restoran svake večeri.
u najbolji restoran svake večeri.
05:59
You don't have to go
to the best restaurant every night.
to the best restaurant every night.
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06:01
Take a chance, try something new, explore.
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Okušajte sreću, isprobajte
nešto novo, istražujte.
nešto novo, istražujte.
Možda nešto naučite.
06:04
You might learn something.
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A informacije koje dobijete
06:06
And the information that you gain
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biće vrednije od jedne
prilično dobre večere.
prilično dobre večere.
06:08
is going to be worth more
than one pretty good dinner.
than one pretty good dinner.
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06:12
Computer science can also help
to make it easier on us
to make it easier on us
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Računarska nauka takođe može
da pomogne da nam bude lakše
da pomogne da nam bude lakše
06:14
in other places at home and in the office.
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i na drugim mestima u domu i kancelariji.
06:17
If you've ever had
to tidy up your wardrobe,
to tidy up your wardrobe,
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Ako ste ikada morali
da pospremite svoj garderober,
da pospremite svoj garderober,
06:20
you've run into a particularly
agonizing decision:
agonizing decision:
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naišli ste na naročito mučnu odluku:
06:23
you have to decide what things
you're going to keep
you're going to keep
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morate da odlučite
koje stvari ćete zadržati,
koje stvari ćete zadržati,
a koje ćete da poklonite.
06:25
and what things you're going to give away.
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06:27
Martha Stewart turns out
to have thought very hard about this --
to have thought very hard about this --
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Marta Stjuart je, ispostavlja se,
duboko razmišljala o ovome -
duboko razmišljala o ovome -
06:30
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
06:32
and she has some good advice.
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i ima dobre savete.
06:33
She says, "Ask yourself four questions:
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Ona kaže: „Postavite sebi četiri pitanja:
06:36
How long have I had it?
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Koliko dugo ga imam?
06:37
Does it still function?
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Da li još uvek funkcioniše?
06:39
Is it a duplicate
of something that I already own?
of something that I already own?
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Da li je duplikat nečega što već imam?
06:42
And when was the last time
I wore it or used it?"
I wore it or used it?"
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Kada sam ga poslednji put
nosila ili koristila?“
nosila ili koristila?“
Ali ima još jedna grupa
stručnjaka koja je možda
stručnjaka koja je možda
06:46
But there's another group of experts
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06:48
who perhaps thought
even harder about this problem,
even harder about this problem,
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još dublje razmišljala o ovom problemu,
06:51
and they would say one of these questions
is more important than the others.
is more important than the others.
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i oni bi rekli da je jedno
od ovih pitanja mnogo važnije od ostalih.
od ovih pitanja mnogo važnije od ostalih.
06:55
Those experts?
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Ti stručnjaci?
06:57
The people who design
the memory systems of computers.
the memory systems of computers.
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Ljudi koji razvijaju
memorijske sisteme računara.
memorijske sisteme računara.
Većina računara ima
dve vrste memorijskih sistema:
dve vrste memorijskih sistema:
07:00
Most computers have
two kinds of memory systems:
two kinds of memory systems:
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07:02
a fast memory system,
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brz memorijski sistem,
07:03
like a set of memory chips
that has limited capacity,
that has limited capacity,
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kao skup memorijskih čipova
koji imaju ograničen kapacitet
koji imaju ograničen kapacitet
07:07
because those chips are expensive,
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zato što su takvi čipovi skupi,
07:09
and a slow memory system,
which is much larger.
which is much larger.
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i spor memorijski sistem,
koji je mnogo veći.
koji je mnogo veći.
07:13
In order for the computer to operate
as efficiently as possible,
as efficiently as possible,
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Da bi računar funkcionisao
što je efikasnije moguće,
što je efikasnije moguće,
želite da budete sigurni
07:16
you want to make sure
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07:17
that the pieces of information
you want to access
you want to access
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da su podaci kojima želite da pristupite
u brzom memorijskom sistemu,
07:19
are in the fast memory system,
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tako da možete brzo da im priđete.
07:21
so that you can get to them quickly.
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Svaki put kada pristupate nekom podatku,
07:23
Each time you access
a piece of information,
a piece of information,
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on se učita u brzu memoriju
07:25
it's loaded into the fast memory
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i računar mora da odluči
koju stavku da ukloni iz te memorije
koju stavku da ukloni iz te memorije
07:26
and the computer has to decide which item
it has to remove from that memory,
it has to remove from that memory,
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07:30
because it has limited capacity.
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zato što joj je ograničen kapacitet.
07:33
Over the years,
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Tokom godina,
07:34
computer scientists have tried
a few different strategies
a few different strategies
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računarski stručnjaci su isprobali
nekoliko različitih strategija
nekoliko različitih strategija
07:37
for deciding what to remove
from the fast memory.
from the fast memory.
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za odlučivanje šta da se ukloni
iz brze memorije.
iz brze memorije.
07:40
They've tried things like choosing
something at random
something at random
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Pokušali su nešto
kao što je izbor nečeg slučajnog
kao što je izbor nečeg slučajnog
ili primenu principa koji se
zove „prvi ušao, prvi izašao“,
zove „prvi ušao, prvi izašao“,
07:43
or applying what's called
the "first-in, first-out principle,"
the "first-in, first-out principle,"
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što znači uklanjanje stavke
07:46
which means removing the item
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07:47
which has been in the memory
for the longest.
for the longest.
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koja je najduže bila u memoriji.
07:50
But the strategy that's most effective
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Ali, strategija koja je najdelotvornija
usredsređuje se na stavke
koje su najmanje nedavno korišćene.
koje su najmanje nedavno korišćene.
07:52
focuses on the items
which have been least recently used.
which have been least recently used.
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07:56
This says if you're going to decide
to remove something from memory,
to remove something from memory,
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Ovo znači da, ako odlučujete
da uklonite nešto iz memorije,
da uklonite nešto iz memorije,
treba da uklonite stvar kojoj je poslednji
put pristupano najdalje u prošlosti.
put pristupano najdalje u prošlosti.
08:00
you should take out the thing which was
last accessed the furthest in the past.
last accessed the furthest in the past.
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08:05
And there's a certain
kind of logic to this.
kind of logic to this.
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A postoji određena vrsta logike u ovome.
08:07
If it's been a long time since you last
accessed that piece of information,
accessed that piece of information,
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Ako je dosta prošlo od kad ste
poslednji put pristupili tom podatku,
poslednji put pristupili tom podatku,
08:10
it's probably going to be a long time
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verovatno će dosta vremena proteći
pre nego što ponovo bude
potrebno da mu pristupite.
potrebno da mu pristupite.
08:12
before you're going to need
to access it again.
to access it again.
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08:15
Your wardrobe is just like
the computer's memory.
the computer's memory.
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Vaš garderober je gotovo
isti kao računarska memorija.
isti kao računarska memorija.
08:18
You have limited capacity,
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2030
Imate ograničen kapacitet
08:20
and you need to try and get in there
the things that you're most likely to need
the things that you're most likely to need
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i treba da unutra stavite stvari
koje će vam najverovatnije biti potrebne
koje će vam najverovatnije biti potrebne
08:25
so that you can get to them
as quickly as possible.
as quickly as possible.
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2419
tako da možete da im priđete
što je moguće brže.
što je moguće brže.
08:29
Recognizing that,
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Prepoznajući to,
08:30
maybe it's worth applying
the least recently used principle
the least recently used principle
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možda vredi upotrebiti
princip poslednjeg korišćenog
princip poslednjeg korišćenog
u organizaciji i vašeg garderobera.
08:33
to organizing your wardrobe as well.
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1949
08:35
So if we go back
to Martha's four questions,
to Martha's four questions,
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Ako se vratimo na Martina četiri pitanja,
08:37
the computer scientists
would say that of these,
would say that of these,
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računarski stručnjaci bi rekli
da je od njih poslednje najbitnije.
da je od njih poslednje najbitnije.
08:39
the last one is the most important.
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1941
08:43
This idea of organizing things
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Ova ideja da se stvari organizuju
08:45
so that the things you are most
likely to need are most accessible
likely to need are most accessible
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tako da su one koje će vam verovatno
biti najpotrebnije budu najpristupačnije
biti najpotrebnije budu najpristupačnije
08:48
can also be applied in your office.
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može da se primeni i u kancelariji.
08:51
The Japanese economist Yukio Noguchi
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Japanski ekonomista Jukio Noguči
08:53
actually invented a filing system
that has exactly this property.
that has exactly this property.
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3055
zapravo je izumeo sistem arhiviranja
kojeg odlikuje upravo ovo.
kojeg odlikuje upravo ovo.
08:57
He started with a cardboard box,
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Započeo je sa kartonskom kutijom
08:58
and he put his documents into the box
from the left-hand side.
from the left-hand side.
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i stavljao bi dokumente u nju
počevši od leve strane.
počevši od leve strane.
09:02
Each time he'd add a document,
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Svaki put kada bi dodao dokument,
09:03
he'd move what was in there along
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pomerio bi ono što je unutra
09:05
and he'd add that document
to the left-hand side of the box.
to the left-hand side of the box.
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i dodao novi dokument
na levu stranu kutije.
na levu stranu kutije.
A svaki put kada bi mu zatrebao
neki dokument, izvadio bi ga,
neki dokument, izvadio bi ga,
09:08
And each time he accessed
a document, he'd take it out,
a document, he'd take it out,
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razmotrio i vratio na levu stranu.
09:10
consult it and put it back in
on the left-hand side.
on the left-hand side.
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09:13
As a result, the documents would be
ordered from left to right
ordered from left to right
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Kao rezultat, dokumenti
su bili poređani od leve strane ka desnoj
su bili poređani od leve strane ka desnoj
09:16
by how recently they had been used.
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prema tome koliko skoro su bili korišćeni.
09:18
And he found he could quickly find
what he was looking for
what he was looking for
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I shvatio je da može brzo
da nađe ono što bi tražio
da nađe ono što bi tražio
09:21
by starting at the left-hand
side of the box
side of the box
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počevši pretragu s leve strane kutije
i listajući polako nadesno.
i listajući polako nadesno.
09:23
and working his way to the right.
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1572
09:25
Before you dash home
and implement this filing system --
and implement this filing system --
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Pre nego što pojurite kući
da započnete ovaj sistem arhiviranja
da započnete ovaj sistem arhiviranja
09:27
(Laughter)
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1731
(Smeh)
09:29
it's worth recognizing
that you probably already have.
that you probably already have.
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vredi priznati da verovatno već jeste.
09:32
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
09:36
That pile of papers on your desk ...
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Ona hrpa papira na vašem stolu...
09:39
typically maligned
as messy and disorganized,
as messy and disorganized,
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tipično oklevetana
kao neuredna i neorganizovana,
kao neuredna i neorganizovana,
09:41
a pile of papers is, in fact,
perfectly organized --
perfectly organized --
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ta hrpa papira je, u stvari,
savršeno organizovana -
savršeno organizovana -
09:44
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
09:45
as long as you, when you take a paper out,
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2014
dok god, kad izvadite neki papir,
09:47
put it back on the top of the pile,
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2432
vratite nazad na vrh gomile.
09:49
then those papers are going
to be ordered from top to bottom
to be ordered from top to bottom
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Onda će ti papiri da budu
uređeni od vrha ka dnu
uređeni od vrha ka dnu
prema tome koliko su skoro korišćeni
09:52
by how recently they were used,
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1552
i verovatno ćete brzo moći
da nađete ono što tražite
da nađete ono što tražite
09:54
and you can probably quickly find
what you're looking for
what you're looking for
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počinjanjem na vrhu gomile.
09:56
by starting at the top of the pile.
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1700
09:59
Organizing your wardrobe or your desk
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1848
Organizovanje sopstvenog
garderobera ili stola
garderobera ili stola
10:01
are probably not the most pressing
problems in your life.
problems in your life.
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verovatno nisu najvažniji
problemi u vašem životu.
problemi u vašem životu.
10:05
Sometimes the problems we have to solve
are simply very, very hard.
are simply very, very hard.
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Ponekad su problemi koje moramo
da rešimo jednostavno vrlo, vrlo teški.
da rešimo jednostavno vrlo, vrlo teški.
10:09
But even in those cases,
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Ali, čak i u tim slučajevima,
10:10
computer science can offer some strategies
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računarska nauka može da ponudi
neke strategije i možda malo utehe.
neke strategije i možda malo utehe.
10:12
and perhaps some solace.
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10:16
The best algorithms are about doing
what makes the most sense
what makes the most sense
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Najbolji algoritmi su o radu
koji ima najviše smisla
koji ima najviše smisla
10:19
in the least amount of time.
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za najkraće moguće vreme.
10:22
When computers face hard problems,
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1958
Kada se računari suoče
sa teškim problemima,
sa teškim problemima,
10:24
they deal with them by making them
into simpler problems --
into simpler problems --
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rešavaju ih rastavljanjem
na jednostavnije probleme -
na jednostavnije probleme -
korišćenjem slučajnosti,
10:27
by making use of randomness,
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1346
10:28
by removing constraints
or by allowing approximations.
or by allowing approximations.
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3817
uklanjanjem ograničenja
ili dozvoljavanjem aproksimacija.
ili dozvoljavanjem aproksimacija.
Rešavanje tih jednostavnijih problema
10:32
Solving those simpler problems
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1494
10:34
can give you insight
into the harder problems,
into the harder problems,
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2920
može vam dati uvid u teže probleme,
10:37
and sometimes produces
pretty good solutions in their own right.
pretty good solutions in their own right.
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3031
i ponekad proizvede prilično dobra
rešenja sama po sebi.
rešenja sama po sebi.
10:41
Knowing all of this has helped me
to relax when I have to make decisions.
to relax when I have to make decisions.
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To što znam sve ovo mi je pomoglo
da se opustim kada moram da odlučujem.
da se opustim kada moram da odlučujem.
10:45
You could take the 37 percent rule
for finding a home as an example.
for finding a home as an example.
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Možete uzeti pravilo 37 procenata
za pronalaženje doma kao primer.
za pronalaženje doma kao primer.
10:49
There's no way that you can
consider all of the options,
consider all of the options,
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Nema šanse da možete
da uzmete u obzir sve mogućnosti,
da uzmete u obzir sve mogućnosti,
10:51
so you have to take a chance.
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tako da morate da rizikujete.
10:53
And even if you follow
the optimal strategy,
the optimal strategy,
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A čak i da se držite optimalne strategije,
10:56
you're not guaranteed a perfect outcome.
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nije vam zagarantovan savršen ishod.
10:59
If you follow the 37 percent rule,
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Ako se držite pravila o 37 procenata,
11:01
the probability that you find
the very best place is --
the very best place is --
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verovatnoća da ćete pronaći
najbolje mesto je -
najbolje mesto je -
11:04
funnily enough ...
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1508
ironično...
11:06
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
11:07
37 percent.
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37 procenata.
11:09
You fail most of the time.
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1689
Podbacujete većinu vremena.
11:12
But that's the best that you can do.
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1744
Ali, to je najbolje što možete.
11:14
Ultimately, computer science
can help to make us more forgiving
can help to make us more forgiving
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3052
Naposletku, računarska nauka
može da pomogne da budemo pomirljiviji
može da pomogne da budemo pomirljiviji
11:17
of our own limitations.
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1909
prema sopstvenim ograničenjima.
11:20
You can't control outcomes,
just processes.
just processes.
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2539
Ne možete da kontrolišete
ishode, samo procese.
ishode, samo procese.
11:22
And as long as you've used
the best process,
the best process,
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I dok god koristite najbolji proces,
11:25
you've done the best that you can.
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1763
uradili ste najbolje što možete.
11:26
Sometimes those best processes
involve taking a chance --
involve taking a chance --
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3688
Ponekad ti najbolji procesi
uključuju rizik -
uključuju rizik -
11:30
not considering all of your options,
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2115
da se ne razmotre sve mogućnosti
11:32
or being willing to settle
for a pretty good solution.
for a pretty good solution.
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ili volju da se zadovoljimo
sa prilično dobrim rešenjem.
sa prilično dobrim rešenjem.
11:35
These aren't the concessions
that we make when we can't be rational --
that we make when we can't be rational --
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Ovo nisu ustupci koje činimo
kad ne možemo da budemo racionalni -
kad ne možemo da budemo racionalni -
oni su to što znači biti racionalan.
11:38
they're what being rational means.
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11:40
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
11:42
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Tom Griffiths - Psychologist, cognitive scientistTom Griffiths uses ideas from computer science to understand how human minds work.
Why you should listen
Tom Griffiths's research explores connections between natural and artificial intelligence to discover how people solve the challenging computational problems they encounter in everyday life. Currently the Henry R. Luce Professor of Information Technology, Consciousness, and Culture at Princeton University, his work has received awards from organizations ranging from the American Psychological Association to the Sloan Foundation.
In 2016, Griffiths and his friend and collaborator Brian Christian published Algorithms to Live By, a book that illustrates how understanding the algorithms used by computers can inform human decision-making (and vice versa). The book was named one of the Amazon.com "Best Science Books of 2016" and appeared on Forbes's "Must-read brain books of 2016" list as well as the MIT Technology Review's "Best books of 2016" list.
Tom Griffiths | Speaker | TED.com