TED2016
Astro Teller: The unexpected benefit of celebrating failure
Astro Teller: Neočekivana korist slavljenja neuspjeha
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"Veliki snovi nisu samo vizije", kaže Astro Teller, "Oni su vizije koje su se vezale za strategije da bi se ostvarile." Čelnik X-a, (nekadašnji Google X), Teller, vodi nas u "tvornicu osvajanja Mjeseca", kako su je nazvali, u kojoj njegova ekipa nastoji riješiti najveće svjetske probleme kroz eksperimentalne projekte kao što su internet s pogonom na balon i turbine na vjetar koje plove zrakom. Saznajte X-ovu tajnu stvaranja organizacije u kojoj je ljudima ugodno raditi na velikim, riskantnim projektima i istraživati odvažne ideje.
Astro Teller - Entrepreneur, inventor, author
As "Captain of Moonshots" for X, Astro Teller oversees the secret projects that could reshape our lives in coming decades. Full bio
As "Captain of Moonshots" for X, Astro Teller oversees the secret projects that could reshape our lives in coming decades. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
In 1962 at Rice University,
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1962 na sveučilištu Rice,
00:16
JFK told the country about a dream he had,
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J.F.K. je Amerikancima ispričao svoj san,
00:21
a dream to put a person on the moon
by the end of the decade.
by the end of the decade.
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san da pošalje osobu na Mjesec
do kraja desetljeća.
do kraja desetljeća.
00:25
The eponymous moonshot.
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Slavno osvajanje Mjeseca.
00:28
No one knew if it was possible to do
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Nitko nije znao može li se to učiniti.
00:30
but he made sure a plan was put in place
to do it if it was possible.
to do it if it was possible.
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Ali on je osigurao da se napravi plan
da se to učini ako bude moguće.
da se to učini ako bude moguće.
00:35
That's how great dreams are.
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To je snaga snova.
00:37
Great dreams aren't just visions,
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Veliki snovi nisu samo vizije,
00:39
they're visions coupled to strategies
for making them real.
for making them real.
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oni su vizije vezane za strategije
koje ih čine stvarnima.
koje ih čine stvarnima.
00:44
I have the incredible good fortune
to work at a moonshot factory.
to work at a moonshot factory.
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Imam puno sreće što što radim
u tvornici Osvajanja Mjeseca
u tvornici Osvajanja Mjeseca
00:49
At X -- formerly called Google X --
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U X-u, nekad zvanom Google X,
00:51
you'll find an aerospace engineer
working alongside a fashion designer
working alongside a fashion designer
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zrakoplovni inženjeri rade
s modnim dizajnerima,
s modnim dizajnerima,
00:56
and former military ops commanders
brainstorming with laser experts.
brainstorming with laser experts.
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a bivši vojni zapovjednici razmjenjuju
ideje sa stručnjacima za laser.
ideje sa stručnjacima za laser.
01:02
These inventors, engineers and makers
are dreaming up technologies
are dreaming up technologies
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Ti izumitelji, inženjeri i stvaratelji
osmišljavaju tehnologije
osmišljavaju tehnologije
01:07
that we hope can make the world
a wonderful place.
a wonderful place.
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za koje se nadamo da mogu
učiniti svijet predivnim mjestom.
učiniti svijet predivnim mjestom.
01:12
We use the word "moonshots"
to remind us to keep our visions big --
to remind us to keep our visions big --
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Koristimo izraz "osvajanje Mjeseca"
da bi naše vizije ostale velike,
da bi naše vizije ostale velike,
01:16
to keep dreaming.
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da nastavimo sanjati.
01:18
And we use the word "factory"
to remind ourselves
to remind ourselves
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Koristimo riječ "tvornica"
da se podsjetimo
da se podsjetimo
01:22
that we want to have concrete visions --
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da moramo imati konkretne vizije,
01:26
concrete plans to make them real.
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konkretne planove
kojima ćemo ih ostvariti.
kojima ćemo ih ostvariti.
01:29
Here's our moonshot blueprint.
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Ovo je naš nacrt osvajanja Mjeseca.
01:31
Number one:
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Prvo:
01:32
we want to find
a huge problem in the world
a huge problem in the world
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želimo pronaći veliki problem u svijetu
01:35
that affects many millions of people.
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koji utječe na milijune ljudi.
01:37
Number two:
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Drugo:
01:38
we want to find or propose a radical
solution for solving that problem.
solution for solving that problem.
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želimo pronaći ili predložiti
radikalno rješenje za taj problem.
radikalno rješenje za taj problem.
01:43
And then number three:
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I treće:
01:44
there has to be some reason to believe
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mora postojati razlog da vjerujemo
01:47
that the technology
for such a radical solution
for such a radical solution
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da se tehnologija za
takvo radikalno rješenje
takvo radikalno rješenje
01:50
could actually be built.
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zaista može napraviti.
01:53
But I have a secret for you.
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Ali odat ću vam tajnu.
01:55
The moonshot factory is a messy place.
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Tvornica osvajanja Mjeseca
je neuredno mjesto.
je neuredno mjesto.
01:59
But rather than avoid the mess,
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Ali umjesto da izbjegavamo nered,
02:01
pretend it's not there,
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i pravimo se da ne postoji,
02:03
we've tried to make that our strength.
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pokušali smo to učiniti
našom prednosti.
našom prednosti.
02:06
We spend most of our time breaking things
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Većinu vremena rastavljamo stvari
02:08
and trying to prove that we're wrong.
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i pokušavamo dokazati da smo u krivu.
02:12
That's it, that's the secret.
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To je to, to je tajna.
02:14
Run at all the hardest
parts of the problem first.
parts of the problem first.
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Rješavati prvo najteže dijelove problema.
02:18
Get excited and cheer,
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Uzbuđeno uzvikivati,
02:20
"Hey! How are we going
to kill our project today?"
to kill our project today?"
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"Hej! Kako ćemo danas ubiti projekt?"
02:25
We've got this interesting balance going
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Imamo zanimljivu ravnotežu
02:29
where we allow our unchecked
optimism to fuel our visions.
optimism to fuel our visions.
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u kojoj naš nekontrolirani optimizam
hrani naše vizije.
hrani naše vizije.
02:35
But then we also harness
enthusiastic skepticism
enthusiastic skepticism
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Ali mi također koristimo
entuzijastični skepticizam
entuzijastični skepticizam
02:39
to breathe life, breathe reality
into those visions.
into those visions.
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da tim vizijama udahnemo život,
da im damo realnost.
da im damo realnost.
02:43
I want to show you a few of the projects
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Pokazat ću vam neke od projekata
02:45
that we've had to leave behind
on the cutting room floor,
on the cutting room floor,
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koje smo morali ostaviti
na katu za rezanje
na katu za rezanje
02:48
and also a few of the gems
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i nekoliko dragulja
02:49
that at least so far,
have not only survived that process,
have not only survived that process,
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koji, bar zasad, nisu samo
preživjeli taj proces,
preživjeli taj proces,
02:53
but have been accelerated by it.
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nego ih je on pospješio.
02:56
Last year we killed a project
in automated vertical farming.
in automated vertical farming.
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Prošle godine smo ukinuli projekt
automatskog vertikalnog uzgoja.
automatskog vertikalnog uzgoja.
03:01
This is some of the lettuce that we grew.
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Ovo je dio salate koju smo uzgojili.
03:03
One in nine people in the world
suffers from undernourishment.
suffers from undernourishment.
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Jedna od devet osoba u svijetu
pati od neuhranjenosti.
pati od neuhranjenosti.
03:06
So this is a moonshot
that needs to happen.
that needs to happen.
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To je osvajanje Mjeseca
koje treba ostvariti.
koje treba ostvariti.
03:09
Vertical farming uses 10 times less water
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Vertikalni uzgoj zahtijeva
10 puta manje vode
10 puta manje vode
03:12
and a hundred times less land
than conventional farming.
than conventional farming.
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i 100 puta manje zemlje
od konvencionalnog uzgoja.
od konvencionalnog uzgoja.
03:16
And because you can grow the food
close to where it's consumed,
close to where it's consumed,
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A budući da se hrana može uzgojiti
blizu mjesta konzumacije,
blizu mjesta konzumacije,
03:22
you don't have to
transport it large distances.
transport it large distances.
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ne mora se prevoziti na udaljena mjesta.
03:27
We made progress in a lot of the areas
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Napredovali smo u puno područja,
03:29
like automated harvesting
and efficient lighting.
and efficient lighting.
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kao u automatskoj berbi
i učinkovitoj rasvjeti.
i učinkovitoj rasvjeti.
03:33
But unfortunately,
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Ali nažalost,
03:34
we couldn't get staple crops
like grains and rice to grow this way.
like grains and rice to grow this way.
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na ovaj način nismo mogli uzgojiti
osnovne usjeve kao žitarice i rižu.
osnovne usjeve kao žitarice i rižu.
03:38
So we killed the project.
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Pa smo ukinuli projekt.
03:41
Here's another huge problem.
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Evo drugog velikog problema.
03:43
We pay enormous costs in resources
and environmental damage
and environmental damage
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Plaćamo ogromnu cijenu u resursima
i zagađenju okoliša
i zagađenju okoliša
03:48
to ship goods worldwide.
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kako bismo prevozili robu širom svijeta.
03:50
Economic development
of landlocked countries
of landlocked countries
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Ekonomski razvoj zemalja
bez izlaza na more
bez izlaza na more
03:53
is limited by lack
of shipping infrastructure.
of shipping infrastructure.
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ograničen je nedostatkom
prijevozne infrastrukture.
prijevozne infrastrukture.
03:56
The radical solution?
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Radikalno rješenje?
03:58
A lighter-than-air,
variable-buoyancy cargo ship.
variable-buoyancy cargo ship.
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Teretni brod lakši od zraka,
promjenjivog pogona.
promjenjivog pogona.
04:04
This has the potential to lower,
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Ovo može smanjiti,
04:07
at least overall,
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barem sveukupno,
04:09
the cost, time and carbon
footprint of shipping
footprint of shipping
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trošak, vrijeme
i ugljični otisak prijevoza
i ugljični otisak prijevoza
bez potrebe za pistama.
04:13
without needing runways.
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04:15
We came up with this clever set
of technical breakthroughs
of technical breakthroughs
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Osmislili smo domišljat skup
tehničkih otkrića
tehničkih otkrića
04:18
that together might make it possible
for us to lower the cost enough
for us to lower the cost enough
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koji bi nam zajedno možda omogućili
da smanjimo cijene
da smanjimo cijene
04:23
that we could actually make these ships --
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dovoljno da zaista napravimo te brodove
04:26
inexpensively enough in volume.
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dovoljno jeftine na veliko.
04:28
But however cheap they would
have been to make in volume
have been to make in volume
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Ali koliko god da se jeftino
mogu napraviti u velikoj količini,
mogu napraviti u velikoj količini,
04:33
it turned out that it was going to cost
close to 200 million dollars
close to 200 million dollars
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ispostavilo se da će koštati
gotovo 200 milijuna dolara
gotovo 200 milijuna dolara
04:37
to design and build the first one.
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da se dizajnira i sagradi prvi brod.
04:40
200 million dollars
is just way too expensive.
is just way too expensive.
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200 milijuna dolara
je jednostavno preskupo.
je jednostavno preskupo.
04:44
Because X is structured
with these tight feedback loops
with these tight feedback loops
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Budući da je X strukturiran sa čvrstim
krugovima povratnog djelovanja
krugovima povratnog djelovanja
04:48
of making mistakes
and learning and new designs,
and learning and new designs,
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pravljenja pogrešaka
i učenja i novih dizajna,
i učenja i novih dizajna,
04:51
we can't spend 200 million dollars
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ne možemo potrošiti
200 milijuna dolara
200 milijuna dolara
04:53
to get the first data point
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da nam prvi podaci
04:55
about whether we're
on the right track or not.
on the right track or not.
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kažu jesmo li na pravom tragu ili ne.
04:58
If there's an Achilles' heel
in one our projects,
in one our projects,
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Ako u nekom našem projektu
postoji Ahilejeva peta,
postoji Ahilejeva peta,
05:00
we want to know it now, up front,
not way down the road.
not way down the road.
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želimo to znati sada, unaprijed,
ne tijekom projekta.
ne tijekom projekta.
05:05
So we killed this project, too.
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Pa smo ukinuli i ovaj projekt.
05:08
Discovering a major flaw in a project
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Otkriće velike mane u projektu
05:11
doesn't always mean
that it ends the project.
that it ends the project.
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ne znači uvijek da se on mora ukinuti.
05:13
Sometimes it actually gets us
onto a more productive path.
onto a more productive path.
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Nekad nas to zapravo odvede
na produktivniji put.
na produktivniji put.
05:17
This is our fully self-driving
vehicle prototype,
vehicle prototype,
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Ovo je naš prototip
potpuno automatiziranog vozila,
potpuno automatiziranog vozila,
05:20
which we built without
a steering wheel or break pedal.
a steering wheel or break pedal.
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koji smo napravili
bez upravljača i kočnice.
bez upravljača i kočnice.
05:24
But that wasn't actually
our goal when we started.
our goal when we started.
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Ali to nije bio naš cilj kad smo počeli.
05:27
With 1.2 million people dying
on the roads globally every year,
on the roads globally every year,
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S 1.2 milijuna ljudi u svijetu koji
poginu na cesti svake godine,
poginu na cesti svake godine,
05:33
building a car that drives itself
was a natural moonshot to take.
was a natural moonshot to take.
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napraviti auto koji se sâm vozi
bilo je prirodno osvajanje Mjeseca.
bilo je prirodno osvajanje Mjeseca.
05:37
Three and a half years ago,
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Prije tri i pol godine,
05:39
when we had these Lexus,
retrofitted, self-driving cars in testing,
retrofitted, self-driving cars in testing,
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kad smo testirali Lexuse,
poboljšane, autonomne,
poboljšane, autonomne,
05:45
they were doing so well,
we gave them out to other Googlers
we gave them out to other Googlers
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bili su tako dobri
da smo ih dali drugim Googlerima
da smo ih dali drugim Googlerima
05:49
to find out what they thought
of the experience.
of the experience.
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da saznamo što misle
o tom iskustvu.
o tom iskustvu.
05:52
And what we discovered
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I otkrili smo
05:53
was that our plan to have the cars
do almost all the driving
do almost all the driving
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da je naš plan da auti odrade
gotovo cijelu vožnju
gotovo cijelu vožnju
05:57
and just hand over to the users
in case of emergency
in case of emergency
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i predaju kontrolu korisnicima
u slučaju nužde
u slučaju nužde
06:01
was a really bad plan.
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bio zaista loš plan.
06:06
It wasn't safe
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Nije bio siguran
06:07
because the users didn't do their job.
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jer korisnici nisu odradili svoj posao.
06:11
They didn't stay alert
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Nisu bili na oprezu
06:13
in case the car needed
to hand control back to them.
to hand control back to them.
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u slučaju da im je auto
trebao vratiti kontrolu.
trebao vratiti kontrolu.
06:17
This was a major crisis for the team.
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To je bila velika kriza za ekipu.
06:19
It sent them back to the drawing board.
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Vratila ih je natrag na skiciranje.
06:22
And they came up
with a beautiful, new perspective.
with a beautiful, new perspective.
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I osmislili su prekrasnu,
novu perspektivu.
novu perspektivu.
06:26
Aim for a car where
you're truly a passenger.
you're truly a passenger.
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Ciljali su auto u kojem ste
istinski putnik.
istinski putnik.
06:31
You tell the car where you want to go,
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Kažete autu kamo želite ići,
06:33
you push a button
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pritisnete tipku
06:34
and it takes you
from point A to point B by itself.
from point A to point B by itself.
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i on vas sâm odveze od točke A do točke B.
06:39
We're really grateful
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Zaista smo zahvalni
06:41
that we had this insight
as early on in the project as we did.
as early on in the project as we did.
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da smo to uvidjeli u
ovako ranoj fazi projekta.
ovako ranoj fazi projekta.
06:44
And it's shaped everything
we've done since then.
we've done since then.
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I to je oblikovalo sve
što smo otada napravili.
što smo otada napravili.
06:49
And now our cars have self-driven
more than 1.4 million miles,
more than 1.4 million miles,
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I sada su naši auti sâmi odvezli
više od 2.25 milijuna kilometara,
više od 2.25 milijuna kilometara,
06:55
and they're out everyday
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i svaki dan su vani
06:57
on the streets of Mountain View,
California and Austin, Texas.
California and Austin, Texas.
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na ulicama Mountain Viewa u Kaliforniji
i Austina u Teksasu.
i Austina u Teksasu.
07:02
The cars team shifted their perspective.
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Automobilske ekipe su
promijenile perspektivu.
promijenile perspektivu.
07:06
This is one of X's mantras.
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Ovo je jedna od X-ovih izreka.
07:08
Sometimes shifting your perspective
is more powerful than being smart.
is more powerful than being smart.
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Ponekad je promjena perspektive
snažnija od same pameti.
snažnija od same pameti.
07:13
Take wind energy.
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Na primjer energija vjetra.
07:15
It's one of my favorite examples
of perspective shifting.
of perspective shifting.
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To mi je jedan od omiljenih primjera
promjene perspektive.
promjene perspektive.
07:18
There's no way that we're going to build
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Nema šanse da napravimo
07:21
a better standard wind turbine
than the experts in that industry.
than the experts in that industry.
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bolju standardnu turbinu na vjetar
od stručnjaka u toj industriji.
od stručnjaka u toj industriji.
07:26
But we found a way
to get up higher into the sky,
to get up higher into the sky,
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Ali smo pronašli način
da ih podignemo više u nebo
da ih podignemo više u nebo
07:31
and so get access to faster,
more consistent winds,
more consistent winds,
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i tako dobijemo pristup bržim,
stalnijim vjetrovima,
stalnijim vjetrovima,
07:35
and so more energy without needing
hundreds of tons of steel to get there.
hundreds of tons of steel to get there.
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a uz to i više energije bez
potrebe za stotinama tona čelika.
potrebe za stotinama tona čelika.
07:41
Our Makani energy kite
rises up from its perch
rises up from its perch
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Naš Makani energetski zmaj
diže se iz svog postolja
diže se iz svog postolja
07:44
by spinning up those
propellers along its wing.
propellers along its wing.
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vrteći propelere na svom krilu.
07:47
And it pulls out a tether as it rises,
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A dok se diže izvlači kabel,
07:50
pulling energy up through the tether.
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povlačeći energiju kroz kabel.
07:52
Once the tether's all the way out,
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Kad se kabel cijeli izvuče,
07:54
it goes into crosswind circles in the sky.
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zmaj kruži na nebu
po bočnim vjetrovima.
po bočnim vjetrovima.
07:58
And now those propellers that lifted it up
have become flying turbines.
have become flying turbines.
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I sad su ti propeleri koji su ga podigli
postali leteće turbine.
postali leteće turbine.
08:04
And that sends energy
back down the tether.
back down the tether.
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I šalju energiju dolje kablom.
08:07
We haven't yet found
a way to kill this project.
a way to kill this project.
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Još nismo pronašli način
da ubijemo ovaj projekt.
da ubijemo ovaj projekt.
08:10
And the longer it survives that pressure,
the more excited we get
the more excited we get
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A što dulje preživi taj pritisak
mi smo uzbuđeniji
mi smo uzbuđeniji
08:14
that this could become
a cheaper and more deployable form
a cheaper and more deployable form
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što bi on mogao postati
jeftiniji oblik energije vjetra
jeftiniji oblik energije vjetra
08:19
of wind energy for the world.
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koji je lakše proširiti po svijetu.
08:23
Probably the craziest sounding project
we have is Project Loon.
we have is Project Loon.
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Projekt koji vjerojatno najluđe zvuči
je Projekt Loon.
je Projekt Loon.
08:27
We're trying to make
balloon-powered Internet.
balloon-powered Internet.
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Pokušavamo napraviti internet
s pogonom na balon.
s pogonom na balon.
08:30
A network of balloons in the stratosphere
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Mrežu balona u stratosferi
08:34
that beam an internet connection down
to rural and remote areas of the world.
to rural and remote areas of the world.
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koji odašilju internetsku vezu
u ruralne i udaljene dijelove svijeta.
u ruralne i udaljene dijelove svijeta.
08:39
This could bring online
as many as four billion more people,
as many as four billion more people,
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To bi moglo priključiti na internet
čak 4 milijarde ljudi
čak 4 milijarde ljudi
08:43
who today have little
or no internet connection.
or no internet connection.
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koji danas imaju slabu
ili nikakvu povezanost.
ili nikakvu povezanost.
08:47
But you can't just take a cell tower,
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Ali ne možete samo uzeti baznu stanicu,
08:50
strap it to a balloon
and stick it in the sky.
and stick it in the sky.
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zavezati je za balon
i gurnuti je u nebo.
i gurnuti je u nebo.
08:52
The winds are too strong,
it would be blown away.
it would be blown away.
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Vjetrovi su prejaki,
otpuhali bi je.
otpuhali bi je.
08:55
And the balloons are too high up
to tie it to the ground.
to tie it to the ground.
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A baloni su previsoko
da se pričvrste za zemlju.
da se pričvrste za zemlju.
09:00
Here comes the crazy moment.
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Evo ludog trenutka.
09:03
What if, instead,
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Što ako, umjesto toga,
09:05
we let the balloons drift
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pustimo balone da odlete
09:07
and we taught them how to sail the winds
to go where the needed to go?
to go where the needed to go?
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i naučimo ih kako da plove na vjetrovima
i odu gdje trebaju otići?
i odu gdje trebaju otići?
09:13
It turns out the stratosphere has winds
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Ispostavilo se da su
u stratosferi vjetrovi
u stratosferi vjetrovi
09:16
that are going in quite different
speeds and directions in thin strata.
speeds and directions in thin strata.
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koji različitom brzinom i smjerom
idu u tankim slojevima.
idu u tankim slojevima.
09:21
So we hoped that using smart algorithms
and wind data from around the world,
and wind data from around the world,
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Nadali da ćemo koristeći pametne algoritme
i podatke o vjetrovima diljem svijeta
i podatke o vjetrovima diljem svijeta
09:26
we could maneuver the balloons a bit,
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moći malo upravljati balonima,
09:29
getting them to go up and down
just a tiny bit in the stratosphere
just a tiny bit in the stratosphere
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odvesti ih više i niže
u jednom malom dijelu stratosfere
u jednom malom dijelu stratosfere
09:32
to grab those winds going
in those different directions and speeds.
in those different directions and speeds.
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kako bi uhvatili vjetrove koji pušu
u tim različitim smjerovima i brzinama.
u tim različitim smjerovima i brzinama.
09:36
The idea is to have enough balloons
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Zamisao je da imamo dovoljno balona
09:38
so as one balloon floats out of your area,
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da ako jedan balon odleti iz svog područja
09:41
there's another balloon
ready to float into place,
ready to float into place,
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imamo drugi balon
spreman uletjeti na njegovo mjesto,
spreman uletjeti na njegovo mjesto,
09:45
handing off the internet connection,
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prebacujući internetsku vezu
09:47
just like your phone
hands off between cell towers
hands off between cell towers
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kao što se vaš mobitel
prebacuje između baznih stanica
prebacuje između baznih stanica
09:51
as you drive down the freeway.
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dok vozite autocestom.
09:53
We get how crazy that vision sounds --
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Znamo kako ludo zvuči naša vizija --
09:58
there's the name of the project
to remind us of that.
to remind us of that.
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tu je i ime projekta
da nas podsjeća na to.
da nas podsjeća na to.
10:00
So since 2012,
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Zato je od 2012,
10:03
the Loon team has prioritized
the work that seems the most difficult
the work that seems the most difficult
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ekipa Loon davala prednost
poslovima koji su se činili najtežima
poslovima koji su se činili najtežima
10:09
and so the most likely
to kill their project.
to kill their project.
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i koji bi najvjerojatnije ubili projekt.
10:13
The first thing that they did
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Prvo što su učinili,
10:15
was try to get a Wi-Fi connection
from a balloon in the stratosphere
from a balloon in the stratosphere
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pokušali su uspostaviti Wi-Fi mrežu
između balona iz stratosfere
između balona iz stratosfere
10:19
down to an antenna on the ground.
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i antene na tlu.
10:22
It worked.
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Uspjelo je.
10:23
And I promise you there were bets
that it wasn't going to.
that it wasn't going to.
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A obećajem vam da je bilo oklada
da neće.
da neće.
10:26
So we kept going.
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Pa smo nastavili.
10:28
Could we get the balloon
to talk directly to handsets,
to talk directly to handsets,
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Možemo li navesti balon da
govori izravno s mobitelom,
govori izravno s mobitelom,
10:32
so that we didn't need the antenna
as an intermediary receiver?
as an intermediary receiver?
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da nam ne treba antena
kao posrednički prijamnik?
kao posrednički prijamnik?
10:36
Yeah.
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Da.
10:38
Could we get the balloon
bandwidth high enough
bandwidth high enough
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Možemo li podići pojasnu širinu
balona dovoljno visoko
balona dovoljno visoko
10:41
so it was a real Internet connection?
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da bude prava internetska veza?
10:44
So that people could have
something more than just SMS?
something more than just SMS?
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Da ljudi mogu koristiti više od SMS-a?
10:49
The early tests weren't even
a megabit per second,
a megabit per second,
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Prvi testovi nisu bili ni
megabit po sekundi,
megabit po sekundi,
10:53
but now we can do
up to 15 megabits per second.
up to 15 megabits per second.
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ali sada možemo poslati
do 15 megabita po sekundi.
do 15 megabita po sekundi.
10:56
Enough to watch a TED Talk.
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Dovoljno da pogledamo
TED govor.
TED govor.
10:59
Could we get the balloons
to talk to each other through the sky
to talk to each other through the sky
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Možemo li učiniti da baloni
međusobno razgovaraju nebom
međusobno razgovaraju nebom
11:02
so that we could reach our signal
deeper into rural areas?
deeper into rural areas?
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kako bi poslali naš signal
dublje u ruralna predjela.
dublje u ruralna predjela.
11:07
Check.
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Učinjeno.
11:09
Could we get balloons the size of a house
to stay up for more than 100 days,
to stay up for more than 100 days,
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Možemo li držati balon veličine kuće
u zraku više od 100 dana,
u zraku više od 100 dana,
11:16
while costing less than five percent
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s troškovima manjima od 5%
11:18
of what traditional, long-life
balloons have cost to make?
balloons have cost to make?
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od troškova izrade
uobičajenih, dugotrajnih balona?
uobičajenih, dugotrajnih balona?
11:23
Yes. In the end.
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Da. Na kraju.
11:25
But I promise you, you name it,
we had to try it to get there.
we had to try it to get there.
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Ali obećajem vam, morali smo pokušati
sve što zamislite da to uspijemo.
sve što zamislite da to uspijemo.
11:31
We made round, silvery balloons.
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Napravili smo male, srebrenkaste balone.
11:35
We made giant pillow-shaped balloons.
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Napravili smo ogromne balone
u obliku jastuka.
u obliku jastuka.
11:40
We made balloons the size of a blue whale.
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Napravili smo balone veličine plavetnog kita.
11:44
We busted a lot of balloons.
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Upropastili smo puno balona.
11:47
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
11:49
Since one of the things that was
most likely to kill the Loon project
most likely to kill the Loon project
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Budući da se činilo da ćemo
najvjerojatnije ukinuti projekt
najvjerojatnije ukinuti projekt
11:53
was whether we could guide
the balloons through the sky,
the balloons through the sky,
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ako ne možemo navoditi
balone po nebu,
balone po nebu,
11:56
one of our most important experiments
was putting a balloon inside a balloon.
was putting a balloon inside a balloon.
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jedan od najvažnijih eksperimenata
bio je staviti balon u drugi balon.
bio je staviti balon u drugi balon.
12:02
So there are two compartments here,
one with air and then one with helium.
one with air and then one with helium.
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Tu su dva pretinca,
jedan sa zrakom i drugi s helijem.
jedan sa zrakom i drugi s helijem.
12:07
The balloon pumps air in
to make itself heavier,
to make itself heavier,
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Balon upuhuje zrak
da bude teži,
da bude teži,
12:11
or lets air out to make it lighter.
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ili ispušta zrak da bude lakši.
12:14
And these weight changes
allow it to rise or fall,
allow it to rise or fall,
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Promjene težine mu
dopuštaju da se diže ili pada,
dopuštaju da se diže ili pada,
12:17
and that simple movement of the balloon
is its steering mechanism.
is its steering mechanism.
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i taj jednostavni pokret balona
je upravljački mehanizam.
je upravljački mehanizam.
12:21
It floats up or down,
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Lebdi gore ili dolje,
12:23
hoping to grab winds going in the speed
and direction that it wants.
and direction that it wants.
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nadajući se da će uhvatiti vjetar
sa željenom brzinom i smjerom.
sa željenom brzinom i smjerom.
12:27
But is that good enough
for it to navigate through the world?
for it to navigate through the world?
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No, je li to dovoljno dobro
da se kreće kroz svijet?
da se kreće kroz svijet?
12:32
Barely at first,
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Ispočetka jedva,
12:35
but better all the time.
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ali sve bolje svaki put.
12:36
This particular balloon,
our latest balloon,
our latest balloon,
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Baš ovaj balon,
naš najnoviji balon,
naš najnoviji balon,
12:39
can navigate a two-mile
vertical stretch of sky
vertical stretch of sky
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može putovati 3,22km
vertikalno kroz nebo
vertikalno kroz nebo
12:44
and can sail itself to within 500 meters
of where it wants to go
of where it wants to go
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i može doći na 500m od svog cilja
12:48
from 20,000 kilometers away.
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s udaljenosti od 20.000 kilometara.
12:56
We have lots more to do
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Još moramo puno toga učiniti
12:58
in terms of fine-tuning
the system and reducing costs.
the system and reducing costs.
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u okviru ugođavanja sistema
i smanjenja troškova.
i smanjenja troškova.
13:03
But last year,
a balloon built inexpensively
a balloon built inexpensively
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Ali prošle godine,
balon koji smo jeftino napravili
balon koji smo jeftino napravili
13:06
went around the world
19 times over 187 days.
19 times over 187 days.
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prošao je svijet 19 puta u 187 dana.
13:12
So we're going to keep going.
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Stoga namjeravamo nastaviti.
13:15
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
13:21
Our balloons today
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Naši baloni danas
13:22
are doing pretty much everything
a complete system needs to do.
a complete system needs to do.
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čine gotovo sve što
potpuni sustavi trebaju činiti.
potpuni sustavi trebaju činiti.
13:27
We're in discussions
with telcos around the world,
with telcos around the world,
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Pregovaramo s telekomunikacijskim
tvrtkama diljem svijeta
tvrtkama diljem svijeta
13:30
and we're going to fly
over places like Indonesia
over places like Indonesia
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i letjet ćemo iznad mjesta
kao što je Indonezija
kao što je Indonezija
13:32
for real service testing this year.
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za ispitivanje stvarne usluge ove godine.
13:35
This probably all sounds
too good to be true,
too good to be true,
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Ovo vjerojatno zvuči
predobro da bi bilo istinito,
predobro da bi bilo istinito,
13:38
and you're right.
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i u pravu ste.
13:41
Being audacious
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Biti odvažan
13:43
and working on big, risky things
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i raditi na velikim, riskantnim projektima
13:45
makes people inherently uncomfortable.
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čini ljude nesigurnima po prirodi.
13:49
You cannot yell at people
and force them to fail fast.
and force them to fail fast.
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Ne možete vikati na ljude
i prisiliti ih da brzo podbace.
i prisiliti ih da brzo podbace.
13:55
People resist. They worry.
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Oni se odupiru. Brinu se.
13:57
"What will happen to me if I fail?
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"Što će mi se dogoditi ako ne uspijem?
14:00
Will people laugh at me?
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Hoće li mi se svi smijati?
14:02
Will I be fired?"
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Hoće li me otpustiti?"
14:05
I started with our secret.
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Počeo sam s našom tajnom.
14:08
I'm going to leave you
with how we actually make it happen.
with how we actually make it happen.
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Za kraj ću vam reći
kako smo je zapravo ostvarili.
kako smo je zapravo ostvarili.
14:12
The only way to get people
to work on big, risky things --
to work on big, risky things --
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Jedini način da ljudi rade
na velikim, riskantnim projektima --
na velikim, riskantnim projektima --
14:17
audacious ideas --
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odvažnim idejama --
14:19
and have them run at all
the hardest parts of the problem first,
the hardest parts of the problem first,
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i da se bave prvo s najtežim problemima,
14:24
is if you make that the path
of least resistance for them.
of least resistance for them.
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je da to za njih bude
linija najmanje otpora.
linija najmanje otpora.
14:29
We work hard at X to make it safe to fail.
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U X-u naporno radimo
da neuspjeh učinimo sigurnim.
da neuspjeh učinimo sigurnim.
14:34
Teams kill their ideas
as soon as the evidence is on the table
as soon as the evidence is on the table
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Ekipe odustaju od svojih ideja
čim su dokazi na stolu
čim su dokazi na stolu
14:37
because they're rewarded for it.
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jer su za to nagrađeni.
14:41
They get applause from their peers.
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Dobiju pljesak od kolega.
14:44
Hugs and high fives
from their manager, me in particular.
from their manager, me in particular.
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Od menadžera zagrljaje i čestitke,
naročito od mene.
naročito od mene.
14:49
They get promoted for it.
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Za to dobiju promaknuće.
14:51
We have bonused every single person
on teams that ended their projects,
on teams that ended their projects,
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Dali smo bonus svakoj osobi
u ekipi koja je ukinula svoj projekt,
u ekipi koja je ukinula svoj projekt,
14:57
from teams as small as two
to teams of more than 30.
to teams of more than 30.
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bila to ekipa od samo dva člana
ili s više od 30.
ili s više od 30.
15:01
We believe in dreams
at the moonshot factory.
at the moonshot factory.
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U tvornici osvajanja Mjeseca
vjerujemo u snove.
vjerujemo u snove.
15:04
But enthusiastic skepticism
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Ali entuzijastični skepticizam
15:07
is not the enemy of boundless optimism.
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nije neprijatelj beskrajnog optimizma.
15:10
It's optimism's perfect partner.
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On je savršeni partner optimizma.
15:14
It unlocks the potential in every idea.
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On otključava potencijal svake ideje.
15:19
We can create the future
that's in our dreams.
that's in our dreams.
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Možemo stvoriti budućnost iz naših snova.
15:24
Thank you very much.
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Hvala vam puno.
15:25
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Astro Teller - Entrepreneur, inventor, authorAs "Captain of Moonshots" for X, Astro Teller oversees the secret projects that could reshape our lives in coming decades.
Why you should listen
Astro Teller oversees X, Alphabet's moonshot factory for building magical, audacious ideas that can solve concrete problems for millions of people through science and technology. As X’s head, Teller has an unmatched vantage point from which to watch possible futures unfold.
In addition to his day job shepherding Peter Pans with PhDs, Teller is on the board of several businesses including AI-based hedge fund Cerebellum Capital, Inc., and Flux.io, a startup reinventing how buildings are designed and built. He is also the author of two novels and co-author (with Danielle Teller) of Sacred Cows, a nonfiction work analyzing society’s attitudes on divorce.
Astro Teller | Speaker | TED.com