TED2016
Astro Teller: The unexpected benefit of celebrating failure
Astro Teler (Astro Teller): Neočekivana prednost slavljenja neuspeha
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"Veliki snovi nisu puke vizije", kaže Astro Teler, "Oni su vizije uparene sa strategijama kako bi bili ostvareni." Glavni čovek Iksa (bivšeg Gugl Iksa), Teler nas vodi unutar "fabrike pohodovanja na mesec", kako je zovu, gde njegova ekipa pokušava da reši najveće svetske probleme putem eksperimentalnih projekata, poput interneta koga pokreću baloni i vetrenih turbina koje lebde vazduhom. Otkrijte tajnu Iksa, kako su stvorili organizaciju u kojoj se ljudi osećaju ugodno dok rade na velikim, rizičnim projektima i dok istražuju odvažne ideje.
Astro Teller - Entrepreneur, inventor, author
As "Captain of Moonshots" for X, Astro Teller oversees the secret projects that could reshape our lives in coming decades. Full bio
As "Captain of Moonshots" for X, Astro Teller oversees the secret projects that could reshape our lives in coming decades. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
In 1962 at Rice University,
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Godine 1962. na univerzitetu Rajs
00:16
JFK told the country about a dream he had,
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Džon F. Kenedi
je saopštio državi svoj san,
je saopštio državi svoj san,
00:21
a dream to put a person on the moon
by the end of the decade.
by the end of the decade.
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san da će da smeste osobu na mesec
do kraja decenije.
do kraja decenije.
00:25
The eponymous moonshot.
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Takozvani pohod na mesec.
00:28
No one knew if it was possible to do
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Niko nije znao da li je to moguće izvesti,
00:30
but he made sure a plan was put in place
to do it if it was possible.
to do it if it was possible.
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ali se postarao da osmisli plan
kako bi to ostvario, ukoliko je moguće.
kako bi to ostvario, ukoliko je moguće.
00:35
That's how great dreams are.
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Takvi su veliki snovi.
00:37
Great dreams aren't just visions,
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Veliki snovi nisu puke vizije,
00:39
they're visions coupled to strategies
for making them real.
for making them real.
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to su vizije uparene sa strategijama
kako bi bili ostvareni.
kako bi bili ostvareni.
00:44
I have the incredible good fortune
to work at a moonshot factory.
to work at a moonshot factory.
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Imam neverovatnu sreću
da radim u fabrici nalik pohodu na mesec.
da radim u fabrici nalik pohodu na mesec.
00:49
At X -- formerly called Google X --
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U Iksu - koji se nekad zvao Gugl Iks -
00:51
you'll find an aerospace engineer
working alongside a fashion designer
working alongside a fashion designer
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naći ćete vazdušno-kosmičkog inženjera
kako radi sa modnim dizajnerom
kako radi sa modnim dizajnerom
00:56
and former military ops commanders
brainstorming with laser experts.
brainstorming with laser experts.
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i bivše komandante vojnih operacija kako
smišljaju ideje sa laserskim ekspertima.
smišljaju ideje sa laserskim ekspertima.
01:02
These inventors, engineers and makers
are dreaming up technologies
are dreaming up technologies
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Ti izumitelji, inženjeri i stvaraoci
maštaju o tehnologijama
maštaju o tehnologijama
01:07
that we hope can make the world
a wonderful place.
a wonderful place.
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za koje se nadamo da će
svet da pretvore u čarobno mesto.
svet da pretvore u čarobno mesto.
01:12
We use the word "moonshots"
to remind us to keep our visions big --
to remind us to keep our visions big --
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Koristimo izraz "pohod na mesec"
da bi naše vizije bile velike -
da bi naše vizije bile velike -
01:16
to keep dreaming.
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da bi nastavili da maštamo.
01:18
And we use the word "factory"
to remind ourselves
to remind ourselves
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A koristimo reč "fabrika" kao podsetnik
01:22
that we want to have concrete visions --
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da želimo da imamo konkretne vizije -
01:26
concrete plans to make them real.
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konkretne planove
koje ćemo da realizujemo.
koje ćemo da realizujemo.
01:29
Here's our moonshot blueprint.
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Ovo je shema našeg pohoda na mesec.
01:31
Number one:
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Pod jedan:
01:32
we want to find
a huge problem in the world
a huge problem in the world
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želimo da orktijemo
ogroman problem u svetu
ogroman problem u svetu
01:35
that affects many millions of people.
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koji pogađa milione ljudi.
01:37
Number two:
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Pod dva:
01:38
we want to find or propose a radical
solution for solving that problem.
solution for solving that problem.
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želimo da otkrijemo ili da predložimo
radikalno rešenje za taj problem.
radikalno rešenje za taj problem.
01:43
And then number three:
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A zatim pod tri:
01:44
there has to be some reason to believe
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mora da postoji razlog da verujemo
01:47
that the technology
for such a radical solution
for such a radical solution
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da tehnologiju za tako radikalno rešenje
01:50
could actually be built.
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zaista možemo sagraditi.
01:53
But I have a secret for you.
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Ali otkriću vam tajnu.
01:55
The moonshot factory is a messy place.
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Fabrika pohodovanja na mesec
je neuredno mesto.
je neuredno mesto.
01:59
But rather than avoid the mess,
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Ali umesto da izbegavamo nered
02:01
pretend it's not there,
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ili se pretvaramo da ne postoji,
02:03
we've tried to make that our strength.
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pokušali smo to da pretvorimo u prednost.
02:06
We spend most of our time breaking things
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Provodimo toliko vremena
uništavajući stvari
uništavajući stvari
02:08
and trying to prove that we're wrong.
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i pokušavajući da dokažemo
da nismo u pravu.
da nismo u pravu.
02:12
That's it, that's the secret.
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To je to, to je tajna.
02:14
Run at all the hardest
parts of the problem first.
parts of the problem first.
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Prvo se bavimo najtežim delovima problema.
02:18
Get excited and cheer,
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Uzbuđeno kličemo:
02:20
"Hey! How are we going
to kill our project today?"
to kill our project today?"
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"Hej! Kako ćemo danas
da uništimo projekat?"
da uništimo projekat?"
02:25
We've got this interesting balance going
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Imamo tu neku zanimljivu ravnotežu
02:29
where we allow our unchecked
optimism to fuel our visions.
optimism to fuel our visions.
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gde dozvoljavamo našem nerealnom optimizmu
da pokreće naše vizije.
da pokreće naše vizije.
02:35
But then we also harness
enthusiastic skepticism
enthusiastic skepticism
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Ali takođe gajimo entuzijastičnu skepsu
02:39
to breathe life, breathe reality
into those visions.
into those visions.
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da udahne život,
da udahne stvarnost u te vizije.
da udahne stvarnost u te vizije.
02:43
I want to show you a few of the projects
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Želim da vam pokažem nekoliko projekata
02:45
that we've had to leave behind
on the cutting room floor,
on the cutting room floor,
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koje smo morali da odbacimo
u fazi izgradnje,
u fazi izgradnje,
02:48
and also a few of the gems
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kao i nekoliko dragulja
02:49
that at least so far,
have not only survived that process,
have not only survived that process,
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koji, bar za sad,
ne samo da su preživeli taj proces,
ne samo da su preživeli taj proces,
02:53
but have been accelerated by it.
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već ih je on ubrzao.
02:56
Last year we killed a project
in automated vertical farming.
in automated vertical farming.
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Prošle godine smo ukinuli projekat
automatizovane vertikalne zemljoradnje.
automatizovane vertikalne zemljoradnje.
03:01
This is some of the lettuce that we grew.
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Ovo je deo zelene salate
koju smo uzgojili.
koju smo uzgojili.
03:03
One in nine people in the world
suffers from undernourishment.
suffers from undernourishment.
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Jedan od pet ljudi u svetu
pati od neuhranjenosti.
pati od neuhranjenosti.
03:06
So this is a moonshot
that needs to happen.
that needs to happen.
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Pa je ovo "pohod na mesec"
koji mora da se desi.
koji mora da se desi.
03:09
Vertical farming uses 10 times less water
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Vertikalna zemljoradnja
troši deset puta manje vode
troši deset puta manje vode
03:12
and a hundred times less land
than conventional farming.
than conventional farming.
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i sto puta manje zemlje
od uobičajene zemljoradnje.
od uobičajene zemljoradnje.
03:16
And because you can grow the food
close to where it's consumed,
close to where it's consumed,
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A stoga što možete da uzgajate hranu
blizu mesta gde se konzumira,
blizu mesta gde se konzumira,
03:22
you don't have to
transport it large distances.
transport it large distances.
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ne morate da je transportujete
na udaljena mesta.
na udaljena mesta.
03:27
We made progress in a lot of the areas
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Postigli smo napredak u mnogim oblastima,
03:29
like automated harvesting
and efficient lighting.
and efficient lighting.
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poput automatizovane berbe
i efikasnog osvetljenja.
i efikasnog osvetljenja.
03:33
But unfortunately,
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Međutim, nažalost,
03:34
we couldn't get staple crops
like grains and rice to grow this way.
like grains and rice to grow this way.
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nismo mogli da ovako uzgajamo
osnovne useve, poput žitarica i pirinča.
osnovne useve, poput žitarica i pirinča.
03:38
So we killed the project.
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Pa smo okončali projekat.
03:41
Here's another huge problem.
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Još jedan ogroman problem.
03:43
We pay enormous costs in resources
and environmental damage
and environmental damage
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Plaćamo ogromnu cenu u resursima
i šteti po okolinu
i šteti po okolinu
03:48
to ship goods worldwide.
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kako bi prevozili robu širom sveta.
03:50
Economic development
of landlocked countries
of landlocked countries
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Ekonomski razvoj
zemalja bez izlaza na more
zemalja bez izlaza na more
03:53
is limited by lack
of shipping infrastructure.
of shipping infrastructure.
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je ograničen nedostatkom
brodske infrastrukture.
brodske infrastrukture.
03:56
The radical solution?
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Radikalno rešenje?
03:58
A lighter-than-air,
variable-buoyancy cargo ship.
variable-buoyancy cargo ship.
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Lakši od vazduha,
podesivi ploveći teretni brod.
podesivi ploveći teretni brod.
04:04
This has the potential to lower,
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Ovo ima potencijal da smanji,
04:07
at least overall,
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bar sveukupno,
04:09
the cost, time and carbon
footprint of shipping
footprint of shipping
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cenu, vreme i ugljeničnu štetu prevoza,
04:13
without needing runways.
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a nije mu neophodna pista.
04:15
We came up with this clever set
of technical breakthroughs
of technical breakthroughs
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Došli smo do ovog pametnog skupa
tehničkih pronalazaka
tehničkih pronalazaka
04:18
that together might make it possible
for us to lower the cost enough
for us to lower the cost enough
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koji zajedno možda mogu da nam omoguće
da snizimo trošak dovoljno
da snizimo trošak dovoljno
04:23
that we could actually make these ships --
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da zapravo možemo da pravimo ove brodove -
04:26
inexpensively enough in volume.
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dovoljno jeftinim na veliko.
04:28
But however cheap they would
have been to make in volume
have been to make in volume
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No koliko god bila jeftina
njihova proizvodnja na veliko,
njihova proizvodnja na veliko,
04:33
it turned out that it was going to cost
close to 200 million dollars
close to 200 million dollars
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ispostavilo se da bi nas koštalo
skoro 200 miliona dolara
skoro 200 miliona dolara
04:37
to design and build the first one.
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da dizajniramo i napravimo prvi od njih.
04:40
200 million dollars
is just way too expensive.
is just way too expensive.
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Dvesta miliona dolara
je prosto isuviše skupo.
je prosto isuviše skupo.
04:44
Because X is structured
with these tight feedback loops
with these tight feedback loops
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Zato što je Iks struktuiran
na čvrstoj petlji povratnih informacija,
na čvrstoj petlji povratnih informacija,
04:48
of making mistakes
and learning and new designs,
and learning and new designs,
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pravljenju grešaka, učenju
i novim dizajnima,
i novim dizajnima,
04:51
we can't spend 200 million dollars
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ne možemo potrošiti 200 mil. dolara
da bismo dobili prvu jedinicu podataka
04:53
to get the first data point
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04:55
about whether we're
on the right track or not.
on the right track or not.
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o tome da li smo na pravom putu ili ne.
04:58
If there's an Achilles' heel
in one our projects,
in one our projects,
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Ako neki od naših projekata
ima Ahilovu petu,
ima Ahilovu petu,
05:00
we want to know it now, up front,
not way down the road.
not way down the road.
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želimo to odmah da znamo, unapred,
a ne kasnije tokom procesa.
a ne kasnije tokom procesa.
05:05
So we killed this project, too.
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Pa smo okončali i ovaj projekat.
05:08
Discovering a major flaw in a project
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Otkriće velike greške u projektu
05:11
doesn't always mean
that it ends the project.
that it ends the project.
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uvek nužno ne znači da će ga to okončati.
05:13
Sometimes it actually gets us
onto a more productive path.
onto a more productive path.
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Ponekad nas zapravo izvede
na produktivniji put.
na produktivniji put.
05:17
This is our fully self-driving
vehicle prototype,
vehicle prototype,
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Ovo je prototip našeg u potpunosti
samoupravljajućeg vozila,
samoupravljajućeg vozila,
05:20
which we built without
a steering wheel or break pedal.
a steering wheel or break pedal.
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koje smo napravili bez volana i kočnica.
05:24
But that wasn't actually
our goal when we started.
our goal when we started.
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No to nam zapravo
nije bio cilj kad smo počinjali.
nije bio cilj kad smo počinjali.
05:27
With 1.2 million people dying
on the roads globally every year,
on the roads globally every year,
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Kako 1,2 miliona ljudi umire svake godine
na putevima u svetu,
na putevima u svetu,
05:33
building a car that drives itself
was a natural moonshot to take.
was a natural moonshot to take.
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izgradnja automobila bez vozača
je bio prirodan pohod na mesec.
je bio prirodan pohod na mesec.
05:37
Three and a half years ago,
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Pre tri i po godine,
05:39
when we had these Lexus,
retrofitted, self-driving cars in testing,
retrofitted, self-driving cars in testing,
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kada smo testirali ove leksuse,
prerađena i samoupravljačka auta,
prerađena i samoupravljačka auta,
05:45
they were doing so well,
we gave them out to other Googlers
we gave them out to other Googlers
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toliko im je dobro išlo,
da smo ih poklonili drugim Guglovcima
da smo ih poklonili drugim Guglovcima
05:49
to find out what they thought
of the experience.
of the experience.
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kako bismo saznali
šta oni misle o tom iskustvu.
šta oni misle o tom iskustvu.
05:52
And what we discovered
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A otkrili smo
05:53
was that our plan to have the cars
do almost all the driving
do almost all the driving
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da je naš plan da automobili
obavljaju skoro kompletnu vožnju,
obavljaju skoro kompletnu vožnju,
05:57
and just hand over to the users
in case of emergency
in case of emergency
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a da prepuštaju kontrolu korisnicima
samo u slučaju opasnosti,
samo u slučaju opasnosti,
06:01
was a really bad plan.
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bio zaista loš plan.
06:06
It wasn't safe
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To nije bilo bezbedno
06:07
because the users didn't do their job.
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jer korisnici
nisu obavljali svoj deo posla.
nisu obavljali svoj deo posla.
06:11
They didn't stay alert
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Nisu bili na oprezu,
06:13
in case the car needed
to hand control back to them.
to hand control back to them.
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u slučaju da je bilo potrebno
da im automobil preda kontrolu.
da im automobil preda kontrolu.
06:17
This was a major crisis for the team.
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Ovo je bila velika kriza za ekipu.
06:19
It sent them back to the drawing board.
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Vratilo ih je nazad na skiciranje.
06:22
And they came up
with a beautiful, new perspective.
with a beautiful, new perspective.
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I došli su do prelepe, nove perspektive.
06:26
Aim for a car where
you're truly a passenger.
you're truly a passenger.
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Cilj je automobil
u kom ste istinski putnik.
u kom ste istinski putnik.
06:31
You tell the car where you want to go,
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Kažete automobilu kuda želite da idete,
06:33
you push a button
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pritisnete dugme
06:34
and it takes you
from point A to point B by itself.
from point A to point B by itself.
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i sam vas odvede od tačke A do tačke B.
06:39
We're really grateful
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Zahvalni smo
06:41
that we had this insight
as early on in the project as we did.
as early on in the project as we did.
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što smo spoznali ovo
tako rano tokom projekta.
tako rano tokom projekta.
06:44
And it's shaped everything
we've done since then.
we've done since then.
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I to je oblikovalo
sve što smo od tad uradili.
sve što smo od tad uradili.
06:49
And now our cars have self-driven
more than 1.4 million miles,
more than 1.4 million miles,
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A naši samoupravljajući automobili
su trenutno prešli više od 2,25 miliona km
su trenutno prešli više od 2,25 miliona km
06:55
and they're out everyday
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i svakodnevno su napolju
06:57
on the streets of Mountain View,
California and Austin, Texas.
California and Austin, Texas.
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na ulicama Mauntin Vjua u Kaliforniji
i Ostina u Teksasu.
i Ostina u Teksasu.
07:02
The cars team shifted their perspective.
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Ekipa na automobilima
je promenila perspektivu.
je promenila perspektivu.
07:06
This is one of X's mantras.
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Ovo je jedna od Iksovih mantri.
07:08
Sometimes shifting your perspective
is more powerful than being smart.
is more powerful than being smart.
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Ponekad je promeniti perspektivu
moćnije nego biti pametan.
moćnije nego biti pametan.
07:13
Take wind energy.
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Uzmite energiju vetra.
07:15
It's one of my favorite examples
of perspective shifting.
of perspective shifting.
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To je jedan od mojih omiljenih primera
izmene perspektive.
izmene perspektive.
07:18
There's no way that we're going to build
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Nema šanse da možemo da napravimo
07:21
a better standard wind turbine
than the experts in that industry.
than the experts in that industry.
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bolju standardnu vetrenu turbinu
od stručnjaka iz te industrije.
od stručnjaka iz te industrije.
07:26
But we found a way
to get up higher into the sky,
to get up higher into the sky,
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Ali smo pronašli način
da ih podignemo više u nebo,
da ih podignemo više u nebo,
07:31
and so get access to faster,
more consistent winds,
more consistent winds,
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i tako dobijemo pristup bržim,
konzistentnijim vetrovima,
konzistentnijim vetrovima,
07:35
and so more energy without needing
hundreds of tons of steel to get there.
hundreds of tons of steel to get there.
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a tako i više energije, bez neophodnosti
tona čelika da bismo to postigli.
tona čelika da bismo to postigli.
07:41
Our Makani energy kite
rises up from its perch
rises up from its perch
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Naš energetski zmaj makani
podiže se s motke,
podiže se s motke,
07:44
by spinning up those
propellers along its wing.
propellers along its wing.
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tako što okreće te propelere
duž njegovog krila.
duž njegovog krila.
07:47
And it pulls out a tether as it rises,
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I izvlači kabal kako se podiže,
07:50
pulling energy up through the tether.
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izvlačeći energiju preko kabla.
07:52
Once the tether's all the way out,
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Čim se kabal skroz odmota,
07:54
it goes into crosswind circles in the sky.
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počinje da kruži
po bočnim vetrovima na nebu.
po bočnim vetrovima na nebu.
07:58
And now those propellers that lifted it up
have become flying turbines.
have become flying turbines.
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A sada su ti propeleri, kojima se podigao,
postali leteće turbine.
postali leteće turbine.
08:04
And that sends energy
back down the tether.
back down the tether.
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A to vraća energiju nazad niz kabal.
08:07
We haven't yet found
a way to kill this project.
a way to kill this project.
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Još nismo otkrili način
da okončamo ovaj projekat.
da okončamo ovaj projekat.
08:10
And the longer it survives that pressure,
the more excited we get
the more excited we get
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A što duže odoleva pritisku,
mi smo uzbuđeniji
mi smo uzbuđeniji
08:14
that this could become
a cheaper and more deployable form
a cheaper and more deployable form
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jer bi ovo moglo da postane
jeftiniji i prošireniji oblik
jeftiniji i prošireniji oblik
08:19
of wind energy for the world.
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upotrebe energije od vetra u svetu.
08:23
Probably the craziest sounding project
we have is Project Loon.
we have is Project Loon.
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Naš projekat koji verovatno najluđe zvuči
je Projekat lun.
je Projekat lun.
08:27
We're trying to make
balloon-powered Internet.
balloon-powered Internet.
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Pokušavamo da sagradimo
internet napajanje iz balona.
internet napajanje iz balona.
08:30
A network of balloons in the stratosphere
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Mrežu balona u stratosferi
08:34
that beam an internet connection down
to rural and remote areas of the world.
to rural and remote areas of the world.
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koji bi odašiljali internet konekciju
u ruralne i udaljene oblasti u svetu.
u ruralne i udaljene oblasti u svetu.
08:39
This could bring online
as many as four billion more people,
as many as four billion more people,
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Ovo bi moglo da priključi na internet
čak još četiri milijarde ljudi,
čak još četiri milijarde ljudi,
08:43
who today have little
or no internet connection.
or no internet connection.
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koji trenutno imaju slab
ili nikakav internet.
ili nikakav internet.
08:47
But you can't just take a cell tower,
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Ali ne možete prosto
da uzmete mobilni odašiljač,
da uzmete mobilni odašiljač,
08:50
strap it to a balloon
and stick it in the sky.
and stick it in the sky.
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vežete ga za balon i bacite na nebo.
08:52
The winds are too strong,
it would be blown away.
it would be blown away.
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Vetrovi su suviše jaki, oduvali bi ga.
08:55
And the balloons are too high up
to tie it to the ground.
to tie it to the ground.
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A baloni su suviše visoko u vazduhu
da bi bili vezani za zemlju.
da bi bili vezani za zemlju.
09:00
Here comes the crazy moment.
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Tu stižemo do ludog trena.
09:03
What if, instead,
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Šta ako bismo,
09:05
we let the balloons drift
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umesto da dozvolimo balonima da lutaju,
09:07
and we taught them how to sail the winds
to go where the needed to go?
to go where the needed to go?
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naučili ih kako da jedre vetrovima
kako bi stigli gde je to potrebno?
kako bi stigli gde je to potrebno?
09:13
It turns out the stratosphere has winds
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Ispostavilo se da vetrovi u stratosferi
09:16
that are going in quite different
speeds and directions in thin strata.
speeds and directions in thin strata.
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duvaju prilično različitim brzinama
i pravcima u gustoj strati.
i pravcima u gustoj strati.
09:21
So we hoped that using smart algorithms
and wind data from around the world,
and wind data from around the world,
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Pa smo se nadali da ćemo pametnim
algoritmima i podacima o vetru širom sveta
algoritmima i podacima o vetru širom sveta
09:26
we could maneuver the balloons a bit,
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moći bar malo da upravljamo balonima,
09:29
getting them to go up and down
just a tiny bit in the stratosphere
just a tiny bit in the stratosphere
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da ćemo ih navesti da idu gore i dole
samo malčice u stratosferi
samo malčice u stratosferi
09:32
to grab those winds going
in those different directions and speeds.
in those different directions and speeds.
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kako bi uhvatili te vetrove koji se kreću
različitim smerovima i brzinama.
različitim smerovima i brzinama.
09:36
The idea is to have enough balloons
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Zamisao je da imamo dovoljno balona,
09:38
so as one balloon floats out of your area,
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pa kad jedan balon odluta
van vašeg područja,
van vašeg područja,
09:41
there's another balloon
ready to float into place,
ready to float into place,
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tu je drugi balon,
spreman da ulebdi na njegovo mesto,
spreman da ulebdi na njegovo mesto,
09:45
handing off the internet connection,
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prebacujući internet vezu,
09:47
just like your phone
hands off between cell towers
hands off between cell towers
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baš kao što se vaš telefon
prebacuje od predajnika do predajnika
prebacuje od predajnika do predajnika
09:51
as you drive down the freeway.
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dok se vozite auto-putem.
09:53
We get how crazy that vision sounds --
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Razumemo koliko blesavo ova vizija zvuči -
09:58
there's the name of the project
to remind us of that.
to remind us of that.
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samo ime projekta nas podseća na to.
10:00
So since 2012,
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Pa od 2012.
10:03
the Loon team has prioritized
the work that seems the most difficult
the work that seems the most difficult
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Lun ekipa je stavila za prioritet
posao koji se činio najtežim
posao koji se činio najtežim
10:09
and so the most likely
to kill their project.
to kill their project.
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i najizglednijim da okonča projekat.
10:13
The first thing that they did
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Prvo što su uradili,
10:15
was try to get a Wi-Fi connection
from a balloon in the stratosphere
from a balloon in the stratosphere
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pokušali su da pošalju vaj-faj vezu
iz balona u stratosferi
iz balona u stratosferi
10:19
down to an antenna on the ground.
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do antene dole na zemlji.
10:22
It worked.
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Funkcionisalo je.
10:23
And I promise you there were bets
that it wasn't going to.
that it wasn't going to.
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I kunem se da su se neki kladili da neće.
10:26
So we kept going.
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Pa smo nastvili s radom.
10:28
Could we get the balloon
to talk directly to handsets,
to talk directly to handsets,
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Možemo li da navedemo balon
da razgovara direktno sa slušalicama,
da razgovara direktno sa slušalicama,
10:32
so that we didn't need the antenna
as an intermediary receiver?
as an intermediary receiver?
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kako nam ne bi bila potrebna antena
kao posredni resiver?
kao posredni resiver?
10:36
Yeah.
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Da.
10:38
Could we get the balloon
bandwidth high enough
bandwidth high enough
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Možemo li postići
da protok u balonu bude dovoljno brz
da protok u balonu bude dovoljno brz
10:41
so it was a real Internet connection?
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da to bude istinska internet veza?
10:44
So that people could have
something more than just SMS?
something more than just SMS?
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Kako bi ljudi mogli da primaju
nešto više od tekstualnih poruka?
nešto više od tekstualnih poruka?
10:49
The early tests weren't even
a megabit per second,
a megabit per second,
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Kod najranijih testiranja
nije se radilo ni o megabitu po sekundi,
nije se radilo ni o megabitu po sekundi,
10:53
but now we can do
up to 15 megabits per second.
up to 15 megabits per second.
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ali sad već postižemo
i do 15 megabita po sekundi.
i do 15 megabita po sekundi.
10:56
Enough to watch a TED Talk.
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Može da se gleda TED govor.
10:59
Could we get the balloons
to talk to each other through the sky
to talk to each other through the sky
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Možemo li da postignemo
da baloni međusobno komuniciraju na nebu,
da baloni međusobno komuniciraju na nebu,
11:02
so that we could reach our signal
deeper into rural areas?
deeper into rural areas?
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kako bi naš signal dosegao
udaljenije ruralne oblasti?
udaljenije ruralne oblasti?
11:07
Check.
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Obavljeno je i to.
11:09
Could we get balloons the size of a house
to stay up for more than 100 days,
to stay up for more than 100 days,
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Možemo li da postignemo da baloni
veličine kuće lebde više od 100 dana,
veličine kuće lebde više od 100 dana,
11:16
while costing less than five percent
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koštajući manje od pet procenata
11:18
of what traditional, long-life
balloons have cost to make?
balloons have cost to make?
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od cene izrade tradicionalnih,
dugovečnih balona?
dugovečnih balona?
11:23
Yes. In the end.
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Uspeli smo na kraju.
11:25
But I promise you, you name it,
we had to try it to get there.
we had to try it to get there.
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Ali kunem se, sve smo isprobali
da bismo u tome uspeli.
da bismo u tome uspeli.
11:31
We made round, silvery balloons.
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Pravili smo okrugle, srebrnkaste balone.
11:35
We made giant pillow-shaped balloons.
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Pravili smo džinovske balone
u obliku jastuka.
u obliku jastuka.
11:40
We made balloons the size of a blue whale.
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Pravili smo balone veličine plavog kita.
11:44
We busted a lot of balloons.
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Probušili smo gomilu balona.
11:47
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
11:49
Since one of the things that was
most likely to kill the Loon project
most likely to kill the Loon project
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Kako se činilo da će najverovatnije
da okonča Lun projekat
da okonča Lun projekat
11:53
was whether we could guide
the balloons through the sky,
the balloons through the sky,
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to da li ćemo uspeti da upravljamo
balonima kroz nebo,
balonima kroz nebo,
11:56
one of our most important experiments
was putting a balloon inside a balloon.
was putting a balloon inside a balloon.
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jedan od naših najvažnijih eksperimenata
je bio stavljanje balona u balon.
je bio stavljanje balona u balon.
12:02
So there are two compartments here,
one with air and then one with helium.
one with air and then one with helium.
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Dakle, imamo dve pregrade ovde,
jednu s vazduhom, drugu s helijumom.
jednu s vazduhom, drugu s helijumom.
12:07
The balloon pumps air in
to make itself heavier,
to make itself heavier,
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Balon upumpava vazduh da bi bio teži
12:11
or lets air out to make it lighter.
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ili ga ispušta kako bi bio lakši.
12:14
And these weight changes
allow it to rise or fall,
allow it to rise or fall,
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A ove promene u težini
mu omogućuju da se diže ili spušta,
mu omogućuju da se diže ili spušta,
12:17
and that simple movement of the balloon
is its steering mechanism.
is its steering mechanism.
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a ti prosti pokreti balona
su njegov mehanizam upravljanja.
su njegov mehanizam upravljanja.
12:21
It floats up or down,
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On lebdi na gore ili na dole,
12:23
hoping to grab winds going in the speed
and direction that it wants.
and direction that it wants.
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u nadi da će da uhvati vetrove
željenog pravca i brzine.
željenog pravca i brzine.
12:27
But is that good enough
for it to navigate through the world?
for it to navigate through the world?
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Ali da li je to dovoljno
da bi se kretao kroz svet?
da bi se kretao kroz svet?
12:32
Barely at first,
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Na početku, jedva da je bilo,
12:35
but better all the time.
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ali se stalno popravljalo.
12:36
This particular balloon,
our latest balloon,
our latest balloon,
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Baš ovaj balon, naš najnoviji balon,
12:39
can navigate a two-mile
vertical stretch of sky
vertical stretch of sky
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u stanju je da se snalazi
vertikalnim rasponom na nebu od 3,22 km
vertikalnim rasponom na nebu od 3,22 km
12:44
and can sail itself to within 500 meters
of where it wants to go
of where it wants to go
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i može automatski da plovi
na 500 metara do cilja
na 500 metara do cilja
12:48
from 20,000 kilometers away.
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iz udaljenosti od 20,000 kilometara.
12:56
We have lots more to do
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Imamo još mnogo posla,
12:58
in terms of fine-tuning
the system and reducing costs.
the system and reducing costs.
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u smislu finog podešavanja sistema
i umanjenja troškova.
i umanjenja troškova.
13:03
But last year,
a balloon built inexpensively
a balloon built inexpensively
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Ali prošle godine,
jeftino napravljen balon
jeftino napravljen balon
13:06
went around the world
19 times over 187 days.
19 times over 187 days.
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je 19 puta obišao svet za 187 dana.
13:12
So we're going to keep going.
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Pa ćemo nastaviti dalje.
13:15
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
13:21
Our balloons today
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Naši današnji baloni
13:22
are doing pretty much everything
a complete system needs to do.
a complete system needs to do.
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rade skoro sve što bi kompletan
sistem trebalo da radi.
sistem trebalo da radi.
13:27
We're in discussions
with telcos around the world,
with telcos around the world,
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Razgovaramo
sa telekomunikacijskim firmama širom sveta
sa telekomunikacijskim firmama širom sveta
13:30
and we're going to fly
over places like Indonesia
over places like Indonesia
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i ove godine ćemo leteti
iznad mesta, poput Indonezije,
iznad mesta, poput Indonezije,
13:32
for real service testing this year.
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radi stvarnog testiranja ove usluge.
13:35
This probably all sounds
too good to be true,
too good to be true,
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Sve ovo verovatno zvuči
suviše dobro da bi bilo istina
suviše dobro da bi bilo istina
13:38
and you're right.
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i u pravu ste.
13:41
Being audacious
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Kad ste odvažni
13:43
and working on big, risky things
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i radite na velikim, rizičnim stvarima
13:45
makes people inherently uncomfortable.
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osećate se po prirodi nelagodno.
13:49
You cannot yell at people
and force them to fail fast.
and force them to fail fast.
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Ne možete da vičete na ljude
i da ih naterate da brzo pogreše.
i da ih naterate da brzo pogreše.
13:55
People resist. They worry.
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Ljudi se opiru. Sekiraju se.
13:57
"What will happen to me if I fail?
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"Šta će se desiti sa mnom, ako ne uspem?
14:00
Will people laugh at me?
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Hoće li mi se ljudi smejati?
14:02
Will I be fired?"
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Hoće li me otpustiti?"
14:05
I started with our secret.
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Započeo sam našom tajnom.
14:08
I'm going to leave you
with how we actually make it happen.
with how we actually make it happen.
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Završiću time
kako zapravo ostvarujemo naše zamisli.
kako zapravo ostvarujemo naše zamisli.
14:12
The only way to get people
to work on big, risky things --
to work on big, risky things --
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Jedini način da navedete ljude
da rade na velikim, rizičnim stvarima -
da rade na velikim, rizičnim stvarima -
14:17
audacious ideas --
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odvažnim idejama -
14:19
and have them run at all
the hardest parts of the problem first,
the hardest parts of the problem first,
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i da ih navedete da na početku obave
najteže delove problema,
najteže delove problema,
14:24
is if you make that the path
of least resistance for them.
of least resistance for them.
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je da to, za njih,
pretvorite u liniju manjeg otpora.
pretvorite u liniju manjeg otpora.
14:29
We work hard at X to make it safe to fail.
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Vredno radimo u Iksu
kako bi neuspeh bio bezbedan.
kako bi neuspeh bio bezbedan.
14:34
Teams kill their ideas
as soon as the evidence is on the table
as soon as the evidence is on the table
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Ekipe okončavaju svoje ideje
čim se pojavi dokaz za to
čim se pojavi dokaz za to
14:37
because they're rewarded for it.
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jer ih nagrađuju zbog toga.
14:41
They get applause from their peers.
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Dobijaju aplauz od kolega.
14:44
Hugs and high fives
from their manager, me in particular.
from their manager, me in particular.
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Menadžer, naročito ja,
ih grli i baca im petaka.
ih grli i baca im petaka.
14:49
They get promoted for it.
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Unapređuju ih zbog toga.
14:51
We have bonused every single person
on teams that ended their projects,
on teams that ended their projects,
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Isplatili smo bonus svakome u ekipama
koje su okončale svoje projekte,
koje su okončale svoje projekte,
14:57
from teams as small as two
to teams of more than 30.
to teams of more than 30.
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od malih ekipa s dva člana
do ekipa sa preko 30 članova.
do ekipa sa preko 30 članova.
15:01
We believe in dreams
at the moonshot factory.
at the moonshot factory.
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U fabrici pohodovanja na mesec
verujemo u snove.
verujemo u snove.
15:04
But enthusiastic skepticism
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Ali entuzijastični skepticizam
15:07
is not the enemy of boundless optimism.
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nije neprijatelj neobuzdanom optimizmu.
15:10
It's optimism's perfect partner.
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On je savršen partner za optimizam.
15:14
It unlocks the potential in every idea.
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On oslobađa potencijal kod svake ideje.
15:19
We can create the future
that's in our dreams.
that's in our dreams.
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Možemo da stvorimo budućnost
koju sanjamo.
koju sanjamo.
15:24
Thank you very much.
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Mnogo vam hvala.
15:25
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Astro Teller - Entrepreneur, inventor, authorAs "Captain of Moonshots" for X, Astro Teller oversees the secret projects that could reshape our lives in coming decades.
Why you should listen
Astro Teller oversees X, Alphabet's moonshot factory for building magical, audacious ideas that can solve concrete problems for millions of people through science and technology. As X’s head, Teller has an unmatched vantage point from which to watch possible futures unfold.
In addition to his day job shepherding Peter Pans with PhDs, Teller is on the board of several businesses including AI-based hedge fund Cerebellum Capital, Inc., and Flux.io, a startup reinventing how buildings are designed and built. He is also the author of two novels and co-author (with Danielle Teller) of Sacred Cows, a nonfiction work analyzing society’s attitudes on divorce.
Astro Teller | Speaker | TED.com