TEDGlobal 2009
Rachel Pike: The science behind a climate headline
Rachel Pike: Ny siansa ao ambadik'ireo lohantenin-dahatsoratra mahakasika ny toetrandro
Filmed:
Readability: 4.3
787,904 views
Mandritry ny 4 minitra, no anomezan'i Rachel Pike, manam-pahaizana simista momba ny atmôsfera, sombitsombiny amin'ny ezaka goavana nahatongavana amin'ireo lohatenin-dahatsoratra mikasika ny fiovan'ny toetrandro, ataony miaraka amin'ny iray tarika aminy--tarika iray ao anatin'ny arivo mandray anjara--itantarany ny sidina mampidi-doza nataony ambonin'ny ala mando, mikatsaka môlekiola manan-danja anankiray.
Rachel Pike - Atmospheric chemist
Rachel Pike studies climate change at the molecular level -- tracking how emissions from biofuel crops react with the air to shape weather trends globally. Full bio
Rachel Pike studies climate change at the molecular level -- tracking how emissions from biofuel crops react with the air to shape weather trends globally. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
I'd like to talk to you today about the scale
0
0
3000
Ny tiako ho resahina androany dia ny lanjan'
00:18
of the scientific effort that goes into making
1
3000
2000
ireo ezaka ataon'ny mpikaroka nahatongavana
00:20
the headlines you see in the paper.
2
5000
2000
amin'ireo lohatenin-dahatsoratra hitanareo amin'ny gazety.
00:22
Headlines that look like this when they have to do with climate change,
3
7000
2000
Toy izato ireo lohateny rehefa ny fiovan'ny toetrandro no resahina,
00:24
and headlines that look like this when they have to do with air quality or smog.
4
9000
4000
ary toy izatsy kosa rehefa momba ny hatsaran'ny rivotra iainana na momba ny "smog" (zavona arahin-tsetroka).
00:28
They are both two branches of the same field of atmospheric science.
5
13000
3000
Samy sampana avy amin'ny taranja siansan'ny atmôsfera izy roa ireo.
00:31
Recently the headlines looked like this when the Intergovernmental
6
16000
2000
Vao vetivety izay no nahitana lohateny toy izao
00:33
Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC,
7
18000
2000
raha nanao tatitra momba ny fahazoana ny firafitra sy fiasan'ny atmosfera
00:35
put out their report on the state of understanding of the atmospheric system.
8
20000
4000
ny IPCC, vondrona mpikaroka iraisam-pirenena manaraka ny fiovan'ny toetrandro.
00:39
That report was written by 620 scientists
9
24000
2000
Mpahay siansa 620
00:41
from 40 countries.
10
26000
2000
avy amin'ny firenena 40 no nanoratra ity tatitra ity.
00:43
They wrote almost a thousand pages on the topic.
11
28000
2000
Mahatratra arivo pejy eo ho eo ity tatitra ity.
00:45
And all of those pages were reviewed by another 400-plus
12
30000
3000
Ary mpanitsy sy mpahay siansa maherin'ny 400,
00:48
scientists and reviewers, from 113 countries.
13
33000
3000
avy amin'ny firenena 113 no nanitsy an'ireo takelaka ireo.
00:51
It's a big community. It's such a big community, in fact,
14
36000
3000
Fivondronambe izany. Lehibe tokoa, hany ka
00:54
that our annual gathering is the largest scientific meeting in the world.
15
39000
3000
rehefa misy ny fivoriana fanaonay isan-taona, dia io no fivondronan'ny mpahay siansa lehibe indrindra eto an-tany.
00:57
Over 15,000 scientists go to San Francisco every year for that.
16
42000
3000
Mpahay siansa 15.000 mahery no mankany San Francisco isan-taona hamonjy azy io.
01:00
And every one of those scientists is in a research group,
17
45000
2000
Ary ny tsirairay amin'ireo mpahay siansa ireo dia ao anatin'ny vondrom-pikaroka,
01:02
and every research group studies a wide variety of topics.
18
47000
3000
ary ny vondrom-pikaroka tsirairay avy dia mikaroka lohahevitra samihafa.
01:05
For us at Cambridge, it's as varied as the El Niño oscillation,
19
50000
3000
Ho anay ao Cambridge, dia toy ny fiovaovan'ny El Niño izany lohahevitra izany,
01:08
which affects weather and climate,
20
53000
2000
mahakasika ny toetrandro,
01:10
to the assimilation of satellite data,
21
55000
2000
ny famotopotorana ireo vokatra azo avy amin'ny zana-bolana,
01:12
to emissions from crops that produce biofuels, which is what I happen to study.
22
57000
3000
hatramin'ireo entona avy amin'ny fambolena izao azo anaovana solika voajanahary, izay efa nanaovako fikarohana.
01:15
And in each one of these research areas, of which there are even more,
23
60000
3000
Ary ao amin'ireo seha-pikarohana tsirairay avy ireo,
01:18
there are PhD students, like me,
24
63000
2000
dia misy ireo mpianatra ho PhD (dokotera), toa ahy,
01:20
and we study incredibly narrow topics,
25
65000
2000
izay mandinika lohahevitra farak'izay bitika,
01:22
things as narrow as a few processes or a few molecules.
26
67000
2000
bitika toy ny sela vitsivitsy.
01:24
And one of the molecules I study is called isoprene,
27
69000
3000
Ary isan'ireo sela anaovako fikarohana ny "isoprène",
01:27
which is here. It's a small organic molecule. You've probably never heard of it.
28
72000
4000
izay hitantsika eto. sela organika kely izy ity. Mety mbola tsy henonareo akory ny momba azy.
01:31
The weight of a paper clip is approximately equal to
29
76000
2000
Ny lanjan'ny "trombone" iray dia mitovy lanja amin'ny
01:33
900 zeta-illion -- 10 to the 21st -- molecules of isoprene.
30
78000
4000
sela "isoprène" 900 zeta-illion--faha-10hatramin'ny faha-21 eo ho eo.
01:37
But despite its very small weight,
31
82000
2000
Saingy na maivan-danja ary izy io,
01:39
enough of it is emitted into the atmosphere
32
84000
2000
dia betsaka ihany ny votsotra mankany amin'ny atmosfera
01:41
every year to equal the weight of all the people on the planet.
33
86000
3000
isan-taona ka mitovy amin'ny lanjan'ny olona rehetra eto an-tany.
01:44
It's a huge amount of stuff. It's equal to the weight of methane.
34
89000
3000
Betsaka ihany izany. Mitovy lanja lanja amin'ny "méthane".
01:47
And because it's so much stuff, it's really important for the atmospheric system.
35
92000
3000
Ary noho izy betsaka izay, dia tena misy vokany tokoa amin'ny firafitry ny atmosfera.
01:50
Because it's important to the atmospheric system,
36
95000
3000
Noho izy misy vokany eo amin'ny atmosfera izay,
01:53
we go to all lengths to study this thing.
37
98000
2000
no nandihanay manokana ity zavatra ity.
01:55
We blow it up and look at the pieces.
38
100000
2000
Nozahana akaiky izy io ary nojerena ireo singa rehetra ao aminy.
01:57
This is the EUPHORE Smog Chamber in Spain.
39
102000
2000
Ito ny EUPHORE Smog Chamber any Espana.
01:59
Atmospheric explosions, or full combustion,
40
104000
2000
Ny fipoahan'ny atmosfera, na ny firehetana feno,
02:01
takes about 15,000 times longer than what happens in your car.
41
106000
3000
dia mitaky fotoana lava 15.000 heny noho ny mitranga ao amin'ny fiaranareo.
02:04
But still, we look at the pieces.
42
109000
2000
Na izany aza, mizaha ireo singa izahay.
02:06
We run enormous models on supercomputers;
43
111000
2000
Mampiasa solosaina goavana izahay
02:08
this is what I happen to do.
44
113000
2000
hijerena ny fiasan'ny modely goavana ihany koa.
02:10
Our models have hundreds of thousands of grid boxes
45
115000
2000
Ny modely ampiasanay dia misy "mailles de grilles" aman'hetsiny
02:12
calculating hundreds of variables each, on minute timescales.
46
117000
3000
izay natao hikajikajiana "variables" aman-jatony, isa-minitra.
02:15
And it takes weeks to perform our integrations.
47
120000
2000
Herinandro maro vao vita ny fampidirana ny vokatra.
02:17
And we perform dozens of integrations
48
122000
2000
ary fampirana vokatra am-polony
02:19
in order to understand what's happening.
49
124000
2000
no atao vao azo tsara ny zava-mitranga.
02:21
We also fly all over the world looking for this thing.
50
126000
3000
Manao sidina ihany koa izahay eran'izao tontolo izao, mitady azy io ihany.
02:24
I recently joined a field campaign in Malaysia. There are others.
51
129000
3000
Vao vetivety aho izay no nirotsaka an-tsehatra tany Malaysie. Ary misy hafa ihany koa.
02:27
We found a global atmospheric watchtower there,
52
132000
2000
Nahita tilikambo fiambenana ahafahana mizaha ny atmosfera eran-tany izahay tany,
02:29
in the middle of the rainforest, and hung hundreds of thousands
53
134000
2000
tany afovoan'ny ala mando tany, ary fitaovana ara-tsiansa manokana mitentina an-jatony dôlara any ho any
02:31
of dollars worth of scientific equipment
54
136000
2000
no nahantona tamin'io tilikambo be io
02:33
off this tower, to look for isoprene,
55
138000
2000
hitadiavana ny "isoprène",
02:35
and of course, other things while we were there.
56
140000
2000
ary, mazava ho azy, hitadiavana zavatra hafa ihany koa, rehefa teo ihany.
02:37
This is the tower in the middle of the rainforest, from above.
57
142000
2000
Ito ilay tilikambo be raha jerena avy ambony.
02:39
And this is the tower from below.
58
144000
2000
Ary ito kosa raha avy ambany.
02:41
And on part of that field campaign we even brought an aircraft with us.
59
146000
3000
Ary nampiasa fiaramanidina mihitsy ary izahay nadritry ny ampahany tamin'io firotsahana an-tsehatra io.
02:44
And this plane, the model, BA146, which was run by FAAM,
60
149000
3000
Fiaramanidina, BA146, izay FAAM no nanamory azy,
02:47
normally flies 120 to 130 people.
61
152000
3000
ary mahazaka olona 120 hatramin'ny 130.
02:50
So maybe you took a similar aircraft to get here today.
62
155000
3000
Mety fiaramanidina toy io ihany koa no ho raisinareo raha mankany ianareo ankehitriny.
02:53
But we didn't just fly it. We were flying at 100 meters above the top of the canopy
63
158000
3000
Saingy tsy hoe nitaingina fotsiny izahay, fa nanidina 100 metatra ambonin'ny tendron'ny hazo tao an'ala
02:56
to measure this molecule -- incredibly dangerous stuff.
64
161000
3000
handrefesana io môlekiola io--mampidi-doza ihany ilay izy.
02:59
We have to fly at a special incline in order to make the measurements.
65
164000
3000
Misy fitongilanana tsy maintsy notazomina mba ahafahana manao ny fandrefesana.
03:02
We hire military and test pilots to do the maneuvering.
66
167000
2000
Mpanamory miaramila sy "pilotes d'essai" no niara-niasa taminay.
03:04
We have to get special flight clearance.
67
169000
2000
Tsy maintsy tandremana ihany koa ny elanelana aroloza.
03:06
And as you come around the banks in these valleys, the forces can get up to two Gs.
68
171000
3000
Rehefa manodidina ireo lohasaha izahay dia mahatratra 2G ny hery misintona.
03:09
And the scientists have to be completely harnessed in
69
174000
2000
Ary tsy maintsy nampiasa "harnais de sécurité" ireo mpikaroka
03:11
in order to make measurements while they're on board.
70
176000
2000
ahafahany manao ny fandrefesana avy ao amin'ilay fiaramanidina.
03:13
So, as you can imagine,
71
178000
2000
Azonareo an-tsaina angamba,
03:15
the inside of this aircraft doesn't look like any plane you would take on vacation.
72
180000
3000
fa tsy mitovy amin'ny firamanidina fitsangatsanganana mahazatra ny ao anatin'ilay fiaramanidina nampiasanay.
03:18
It's a flying laboratory that we took to make measurements in the region of this molecule.
73
183000
5000
toy ny labôratoara manidina mihitsy no nampiasaina ahafahana mandrefy an'ilay môlekiola any amin'ny faritra misy azy.
03:23
We do all of this to understand the chemistry of one molecule.
74
188000
3000
Izany rehetra izany no natao mba ahazoana tsara ny fiasan'io môlekiola io.
03:26
And when one student like me has some sort of inclination
75
191000
2000
Ary rehefa misy mpianatra mpikaroka iray, toa ahy,
03:28
or understanding about that molecule,
76
193000
2000
mahita sombim-pahalalàna momba io môlekiola io,
03:30
they write one scientific paper on the subject.
77
195000
2000
dia mamoaka lahatsotra siantifika momba izany.
03:32
And out of that field campaign we'll probably get
78
197000
2000
Ary tamin'io firotsahana an-tsehatra io,
03:34
a few dozen papers on a few dozen processes or molecules.
79
199000
3000
dia lahatsotra siantifika am-polony eo ho eo, mahakasika ny endrika fiasa am-polony momba io môlekiola io no azo.
03:37
And as a body of knowledge builds up,
80
202000
2000
Ary rehefa mitambatra ireo fahalalàna ireo,
03:39
it will form one subsection, or one sub-subsection
81
204000
3000
dia manome zana-pizaràna iray, na zana-pizaràna iray ao amin'ny
03:42
of an assessment like the IPCC, although we have others.
82
207000
3000
fanombanana toy ny IPCC, na dia misy hafa koa aza.
03:45
And each one of the 11 chapters of the IPCC
83
210000
3000
Ary ny tsirairay amin'ireo toko 11 ao amin'ny IPCC
03:48
has six to ten subsections.
84
213000
2000
dia mizara zana-pizaràna 6.
03:50
So you can imagine the scale of the effort.
85
215000
2000
Hitanareo amin'izany ny haben'ny ezaka sy asa ao ambadika.
03:52
In each one of those assessments that we write,
86
217000
2000
Ao amin'ny tsirairay amin'ireo fanombanana soratanay,
03:54
we always tag on a summary,
87
219000
2000
dia asianay marika foana ny famintinana,
03:56
and the summary is written for a non-scientific audience.
88
221000
3000
ary natokana ho an'ny mpamaky tsotra io famintinana io.
03:59
And we hand that summary to journalists and policy makers,
89
224000
2000
Ary atolotray mpanao gazety sy mpamoron-dalàna io famintinana io,
04:01
in order to make headlines like these.
90
226000
2000
ahafahana mamoaka lohatenin-dahatsoratra toa itony.
04:03
Thank you very much.
91
228000
2000
Misaotra betsaka.
04:05
(Applause)
92
230000
3000
(Tehaka Mirefodreafotra)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Rachel Pike - Atmospheric chemistRachel Pike studies climate change at the molecular level -- tracking how emissions from biofuel crops react with the air to shape weather trends globally.
Why you should listen
Rachel Pike knows the intricacies of climate research -- the laborious, exacting and subtle techniques behind findings that end up in IPCC reports and, later, news headlines.
As a Ph.D candidate at Cambridge, Pike's research on isoprene, a major biofuel crop emission, and other molecules has taken her soaring over rainforest canopies in multi-ton labs-on-wings, into the cooled-down sub-levels of supercomputer grids, and into massive experimental atmospheric chambers. Her exhaustive work represents a major step toward a complete picture of how human activity affects the global ecosystem.
Rachel Pike | Speaker | TED.com