TEDGlobal 2009
Rachel Pike: The science behind a climate headline
蕾秋‧派克(Rachel Pike)：氣候新聞學問大
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在短短四分鐘的演講裡，大氣化學家蕾秋派克將為我們揭開在氣候相關新聞的背後，科學家們所做的種種努力。此外，身為眾多研究團隊之一，蕾秋也將告訴我們她與她的團員們是如何在熱帶雨林執行危險的任務，以取得一種重要分子的數據資料。
Rachel Pike - Atmospheric chemist
Rachel Pike studies climate change at the molecular level -- tracking how emissions from biofuel crops react with the air to shape weather trends globally. Full bio
Rachel Pike studies climate change at the molecular level -- tracking how emissions from biofuel crops react with the air to shape weather trends globally. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
I'd like to talk to you today about the scale
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今天讓我們來談談
00:18
of the scientific effort that goes into making
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在頭條新聞的背後
00:20
the headlines you see in the paper.
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科學家們所做的種種努力
00:22
Headlines that look like this when they have to do with climate change,
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這是跟氣候變遷有關的頭條新聞
00:24
and headlines that look like this when they have to do with air quality or smog.
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而這是空氣品質或是煙霧汙染有關的頭條新聞
00:28
They are both two branches of the same field of atmospheric science.
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以上兩種新聞內容分別屬於大氣科學的兩個分支
00:31
Recently the headlines looked like this when the Intergovernmental
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這是最近的一則頭條，內容是說IPCC...
00:33
Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC,
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也就是聯合國的"政府間氣候變化專門委員會"
00:35
put out their report on the state of understanding of the atmospheric system.
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發表了一篇關於大氣系統現況的報告
00:39
That report was written by 620 scientists
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這篇報告是由來自40個國家的
00:41
from 40 countries.
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620位科學家合力完成
00:43
They wrote almost a thousand pages on the topic.
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整篇報告將近一千頁
00:45
And all of those pages were reviewed by another 400-plus
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然後再經由另外來自113個國家的
00:48
scientists and reviewers, from 113 countries.
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400多位科學家和審查員審定而成
00:51
It's a big community. It's such a big community, in fact,
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這可是個浩大工程
00:54
that our annual gathering is the largest scientific meeting in the world.
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事實上，我們每年的聚會可說是物理學界的年度盛事
00:57
Over 15,000 scientists go to San Francisco every year for that.
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每年會有超過一萬五千名科學家齊聚於舊金山
01:00
And every one of those scientists is in a research group,
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每個人都代表一個研究團隊
01:02
and every research group studies a wide variety of topics.
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也代表每個團隊的研究議題
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For us at Cambridge, it's as varied as the El Niño oscillation,
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我們在劍橋的團隊，研究議題非常多樣
01:08
which affects weather and climate,
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像是影響天氣與氣候的聖嬰現象
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to the assimilation of satellite data,
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人造衛星的數據同化
01:12
to emissions from crops that produce biofuels, which is what I happen to study.
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或是我正在研究的農作物與生化燃料
01:15
And in each one of these research areas, of which there are even more,
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而在每個研究領域裡
01:18
there are PhD students, like me,
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都有許多跟我一樣的博士生
01:20
and we study incredibly narrow topics,
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每人負責一個專精的主題
01:22
things as narrow as a few processes or a few molecules.
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專精到像是小小的反應過程，或一些小分子
01:24
And one of the molecules I study is called isoprene,
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我研究的是名叫異戊二烯的分子，如螢幕所示
01:27
which is here. It's a small organic molecule. You've probably never heard of it.
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這是種微小的有機分子，你們可能從來沒聽過
01:31
The weight of a paper clip is approximately equal to
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一個迴紋針的重量
01:33
900 zeta-illion -- 10 to the 21st -- molecules of isoprene.
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大約等於10的21次方個異戊二烯分子
01:37
But despite its very small weight,
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雖然它非常輕
01:39
enough of it is emitted into the atmosphere
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但它每年排放到大氣中的量
01:41
every year to equal the weight of all the people on the planet.
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卻相當於地球上所有人的體重總和
01:44
It's a huge amount of stuff. It's equal to the weight of methane.
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這可不是團小東西，跟甲烷的重量比起來也不相上下
01:47
And because it's so much stuff, it's really important for the atmospheric system.
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正因如此，它在大氣系統中扮演了至關重要的角色
01:50
Because it's important to the atmospheric system,
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我們會不遺餘力地研究異戊二烯
01:53
we go to all lengths to study this thing.
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理由也在此
01:55
We blow it up and look at the pieces.
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我們將它炸裂並觀察它遺留的碎片
01:57
This is the EUPHORE Smog Chamber in Spain.
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這是位於西班牙的EUPHORE煙霧實驗室
01:59
Atmospheric explosions, or full combustion,
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大氣中的完全燃燒
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takes about 15,000 times longer than what happens in your car.
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所產生的爆炸次數是車子引擎裡的一千五百倍
02:04
But still, we look at the pieces.
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即使如此，我們仍致力於觀察它的碎片
02:06
We run enormous models on supercomputers;
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我們會用超級電腦運算大量的模型
02:08
this is what I happen to do.
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我目前在做的就是這個
02:10
Our models have hundreds of thousands of grid boxes
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模型裡有上千個網格在運算
02:12
calculating hundreds of variables each, on minute timescales.
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每分鐘能運算上百筆數據
02:15
And it takes weeks to perform our integrations.
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而整合這些數據則花費了數週時間
02:17
And we perform dozens of integrations
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整合次數也不計其數
02:19
in order to understand what's happening.
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耗費那麼多心力只為了更瞭解異戊二烯
02:21
We also fly all over the world looking for this thing.
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此外，我們也在世界各地尋找這種分子
02:24
I recently joined a field campaign in Malaysia. There are others.
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最近我參加了一個在馬來西亞的實地調查活動
02:27
We found a global atmospheric watchtower there,
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我們還在當地建立了一個全球大氣觀測站
02:29
in the middle of the rainforest, and hung hundreds of thousands
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就位在雨林中央，上面懸掛了許多昂貴的科學儀器
02:31
of dollars worth of scientific equipment
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價值約數十萬美元
02:33
off this tower, to look for isoprene,
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都是為了尋找異戊二烯
02:35
and of course, other things while we were there.
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當然，也順便觀察其他種類的分子
02:37
This is the tower in the middle of the rainforest, from above.
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這就是那座觀測站，照片是從飛機上拍的
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And this is the tower from below.
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這張是從底下拍的
02:41
And on part of that field campaign we even brought an aircraft with us.
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我們還從FAAM借來了一架BA146飛機進行觀測
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And this plane, the model, BA146, which was run by FAAM,
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(譯註：FAAM是英國一家提供大氣觀測機的機構)
02:47
normally flies 120 to 130 people.
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這種飛機載客量約120到130人
02:50
So maybe you took a similar aircraft to get here today.
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也許有人今天就是乘坐類似的飛機來到這裡的
02:53
But we didn't just fly it. We were flying at 100 meters above the top of the canopy
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但我們是以距離樹冠層僅一百公尺的高度在飛行
02:56
to measure this molecule -- incredibly dangerous stuff.
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非常危險，但這都是為了測量異戊二烯
02:59
We have to fly at a special incline in order to make the measurements.
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為了進行測量，飛機必須以一特定角度飛行
03:02
We hire military and test pilots to do the maneuvering.
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所以我們請來了軍方和測試飛行員來駕駛飛機
03:04
We have to get special flight clearance.
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當然，特殊的飛行許可也是不可少的
03:06
And as you come around the banks in these valleys, the forces can get up to two Gs.
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當飛機沿著河谷飛過時，G力會達到2G
03:09
And the scientists have to be completely harnessed in
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科學家們必須完全承受住這些壓力
03:11
in order to make measurements while they're on board.
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因為他們還要在飛機上進行測量事宜
03:13
So, as you can imagine,
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所以，各位應該可以想像
03:15
the inside of this aircraft doesn't look like any plane you would take on vacation.
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飛機上的狀況絕對不會像要去度假一樣悠閒
03:18
It's a flying laboratory that we took to make measurements in the region of this molecule.
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對我們而言，那就像個空中實驗室
03:23
We do all of this to understand the chemistry of one molecule.
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以上就是我們為了瞭解一個化學分子所做的努力
03:26
And when one student like me has some sort of inclination
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只要有某個學生像我一樣特別執著於某一種分子
03:28
or understanding about that molecule,
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或對某一種分子有著深入了解
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they write one scientific paper on the subject.
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他們就會把自己的想法寫成一篇篇的論文
03:32
And out of that field campaign we'll probably get
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藉由一個實地調查活動，我們可以瞭解許多分子
03:34
a few dozen papers on a few dozen processes or molecules.
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許許多多的研究論文便應運而生
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And as a body of knowledge builds up,
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我們的知識體系便由此而建構
03:39
it will form one subsection, or one sub-subsection
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進而衍生出更進一步的研究與探索
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of an assessment like the IPCC, although we have others.
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這些研究結果於是成為IPCC評估報告的構成要素
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And each one of the 11 chapters of the IPCC
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在報告書的十一個章節裡頭
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has six to ten subsections.
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每章都有六到十小節闡述進一步的研究成果
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So you can imagine the scale of the effort.
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所以各位可以想像，科學家們為此付出了多少心力
03:52
In each one of those assessments that we write,
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報告完成之後，我們會將報告書的內容...
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we always tag on a summary,
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整理成一篇摘要
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and the summary is written for a non-scientific audience.
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以提供給非專業領域的大眾閱讀
03:59
And we hand that summary to journalists and policy makers,
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最後我們把這篇摘要交給記者以及政府的決策官員
04:01
in order to make headlines like these.
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報紙上的頭條新聞便由此而生
04:03
Thank you very much.
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謝謝大家
04:05
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Rachel Pike - Atmospheric chemistRachel Pike studies climate change at the molecular level -- tracking how emissions from biofuel crops react with the air to shape weather trends globally.
Why you should listen
Rachel Pike knows the intricacies of climate research -- the laborious, exacting and subtle techniques behind findings that end up in IPCC reports and, later, news headlines.
As a Ph.D candidate at Cambridge, Pike's research on isoprene, a major biofuel crop emission, and other molecules has taken her soaring over rainforest canopies in multi-ton labs-on-wings, into the cooled-down sub-levels of supercomputer grids, and into massive experimental atmospheric chambers. Her exhaustive work represents a major step toward a complete picture of how human activity affects the global ecosystem.
Rachel Pike | Speaker | TED.com