ABOUT THE SPEAKERS
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionary
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus.

Why you should listen

Even the most worldly and well-traveled among us have had their perspectives shifted by Hans Rosling. A professor of global health at Sweden's Karolinska Institute, his work focused on dispelling common myths about the so-called developing world, which (as he pointed out) is no longer worlds away from the West. In fact, most of the Third World is on the same trajectory toward health and prosperity, and many countries are moving twice as fast as the west did.

What set Rosling apart wasn't just his apt observations of broad social and economic trends, but the stunning way he presented them. Guaranteed: You've never seen data presented like this. A presentation that tracks global health and poverty trends should be, in a word: boring. But in Rosling's hands, data sings. Trends come to life. And the big picture — usually hazy at best — snaps into sharp focus.

Rosling's presentations were grounded in solid statistics (often drawn from United Nations and World Bank data), illustrated by the visualization software he developed. The animations transform development statistics into moving bubbles and flowing curves that make global trends clear, intuitive and even playful. During his legendary presentations, Rosling took this one step farther, narrating the animations with a sportscaster's flair.

Rosling developed the breakthrough software behind his visualizations through his nonprofit Gapminder, founded with his son and daughter-in-law. The free software — which can be loaded with any data — was purchased by Google in March 2007. (Rosling met the Google founders at TED.)

Rosling began his wide-ranging career as a physician, spending many years in rural Africa tracking a rare paralytic disease (which he named konzo) and discovering its cause: hunger and badly processed cassava. He co-founded Médecins sans Frontièrs (Doctors without Borders) Sweden, wrote a textbook on global health, and as a professor at the Karolinska Institut in Stockholm initiated key international research collaborations. He's also personally argued with many heads of state, including Fidel Castro.

Hans Rosling passed away in February 2017. He is greatly missed.


More profile about the speaker
Hans Rosling | Speaker | TED.com
Ola Rosling - Director of the Gapminder Foundation
Ola Rosling is the director and co-founder of the Gapminder Foundation. Previously, he was the Google Public Data product manager.

Why you should listen
To fight devastating ignorance, we have to be more systematic about spreading facts that matter. In this talk with Hans Rosling, Ola teaches 4 ways to quickly learn more about the world of facts.
More profile about the speaker
Ola Rosling | Speaker | TED.com
TEDSalon Berlin 2014

Hans and Ola Rosling: How not to be ignorant about the world

汉斯·罗斯林 和 奥拉·罗斯林: 如何不对世界感到无知

Filmed:
5,377,171 views

你对这个世界有多少认识?汉斯·罗斯林带着他著名的全球人口、健康和收入数据表格(还有一根超级长的教学棒),来证明你认为知道的那些事实,在统计中有很大概率是错误的。再配上他的观众测验——然后,从汉斯的儿子奥拉那里,学习4种能快速摆脱变无知的方法。
- Global health expert; data visionary
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio - Director of the Gapminder Foundation
Ola Rosling is the director and co-founder of the Gapminder Foundation. Previously, he was the Google Public Data product manager. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:12
Hans汉斯 Rosling罗斯林: I'm going to ask you
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汉斯·罗斯林:我会给你们做
00:15
three multiple choice选择 questions问题.
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三道多项选择题
00:16
Use this device设备. Use this device设备 to answer回答.
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用这个装置来回答
00:20
The first question is, how did the number
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第一个问题是 在过去一个世纪里
00:22
of deaths死亡 per year
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每年因自然灾害
00:24
from natural自然 disaster灾害,
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死亡的人数
00:26
how did that change更改 during the last century世纪?
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发生了怎样的变化
00:28
Did it more than double,
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是翻倍了
00:30
did it remain about the same相同 in the world世界 as a whole整个,
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还是在全世界范围内总体不变
00:32
or did it decrease减少 to less than half?
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还是下降了一半呢
00:35
Please answer回答 A, B or C.
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请选择A B 或C
00:37
I see lots of answers答案. This is much
faster更快 than I do it at universities高校.
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我已经看到很多人回答了
这比我在大学里做的时候快得多
00:41
They are so slow. They keep
thinking思维, thinking思维, thinking思维.
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他们动作很慢 他们一直想啊 想啊
00:44
Oh, very, very good.
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好 很好
00:46
And we go to the next下一个 question.
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下一个问题
00:48
So how long did women妇女 30 years年份 old
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在全世界范围内 30岁的女性的
00:51
in the world世界 go to school学校:
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受教育的年限是
00:53
seven years年份, five years年份 or three years年份?
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七年 五年还是三年
00:55
A, B or C? Please answer回答.
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A B 还是C 请回答
01:02
And we go to the next下一个 question.
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我们看下一个问题
01:04
In the last 20 years年份, how did the percentage百分比
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过去20年里
01:08
of people in the world世界
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占世界人口多少百分比的人
01:09
who live生活 in extreme极端 poverty贫穷 change更改?
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生活在极端贫困中?
01:12
Extreme极端 poverty贫穷 — not having
enough足够 food餐饮 for the day.
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极端贫困指的是每天填不饱肚子
01:14
Did it almost几乎 double,
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是几乎翻倍了
01:16
did it remain more or less the same相同,
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还是基本维持不变
01:18
or did it halve对分?
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还是减半了?
01:19
A, B or C?
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A B 或 C
01:23
Now, answers答案.
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现在 公布答案
01:26
You see,
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如你所见
01:28
deaths死亡 from natural自然 disasters灾害 in the world世界,
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全球因自然灾害死亡的人数
01:29
you can see it from this graph图形 here,
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你可以从这幅图里看到
01:31
from 1900 to 2000.
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从1900年到2000年
01:34
In 1900, there was about half a million百万 people
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1900年 每年有接近50万人
01:37
who died死亡 every一切 year from natural自然 disasters灾害:
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死于自然灾害
01:39
floods洪水, earthquakes地震, volcanic火山
eruption喷发, whatever随你, droughts干旱.
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洪水 地震 火山喷发 其他 干旱
01:44
And then, how did that change更改?
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然后 发生了怎样的变化呢
01:47
GapminderGapminder asked the public上市 in Sweden瑞典.
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Gapminder对瑞典公众进行了调查
01:51
This is how they answered回答.
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他们是这样回答的
01:52
The Swedish瑞典 public上市 answered回答 like this:
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瑞典公众的回答是这样的
01:54
Fifty五十 percent百分 thought it had doubled翻倍,
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50%的人认为翻倍了
01:56
38 percent百分 said it's more or less the same相同,
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38%的人认为没太大变化
01:58
12 said it had halved减半.
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12%的人认为减半了
02:00
This is the best最好 data数据 from the disaster灾害 researchers研究人员,
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对于灾害研究人员来说
这是最理想的数字
02:03
and it goes up and down,
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然后上下有所浮动
02:06
and it goes to the Second第二 World世界 War战争,
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然后到了二战
02:08
and after that it starts启动 to fall秋季 and it keeps保持 falling落下
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之后就开始一路下滑
02:12
and it's down to much less than half.
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下降至远低于一半
02:14
The world世界 has been much, much more capable
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这个世界 相比数十年前而言
02:16
as the decades几十年 go by
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在保护人们免受自然灾害方面
02:18
to protect保护 people from this, you know.
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的能力已经强了太多
02:20
So only 12 percent百分 of the Swedes瑞典人 know this.
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只有12%的瑞典人知道这一点
02:23
So I went to the zoo动物园 and I asked the chimps黑猩猩.
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所以我去了趟动物园
问了黑猩猩同样的问题
02:26
(Laughter笑声) (Applause掌声)
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(笑声)(掌声)
02:39
The chimps黑猩猩 don't watch the evening晚间 news新闻,
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黑猩猩才不看晚间新闻
02:43
so the chimps黑猩猩,
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所以它们
02:44
they choose选择 by random随机, so the
Swedes瑞典人 answer回答 worse更差 than random随机.
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是随机选择的
所以瑞典人的正确率还不如随机
02:48
Now how did you do?
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现在来看看你们做的怎样?
02:51
That's you.
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这是你们的答案
02:54
You were beaten殴打 by the chimps黑猩猩.
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你们被黑猩猩打败了
02:56
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
02:58
But it was close.
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但很接近了
03:01
You were three times better than the Swedes瑞典人,
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你们的正确率比瑞典人高了三倍
03:05
but that's not enough足够.
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但这还不够
03:06
You shouldn't不能 compare比较 yourself你自己 to Swedes瑞典人.
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你们不应该拿自己跟瑞典人比
03:08
You must必须 have higher更高 ambitions野心 in the world世界.
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你们对于世界的野心肯定不止于此
03:12
Let's look at the next下一个 answer回答 here: women妇女 in school学校.
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来看下一个答案
女性所受的学校教育
03:15
Here, you can see men男人 went eight years年份.
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这里 你可以看到男性是八年
03:17
How long did women妇女 go to school学校?
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女性所受的学校教育年限是?
03:19
Well, we asked the Swedes瑞典人 like this,
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瑞典人是这么回答的
03:22
and that gives you a hint暗示, doesn't it?
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你从这里能总结出规律了 是吧
03:24
The right answer回答 is probably大概 the one
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正确的答案很可能是
03:26
the fewest最少 Swedes瑞典人 picked采摘的, isn't it?
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最少瑞典人选择的那个 对吧
03:29
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
03:31
Let's see, let's see. Here we come.
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咱们来看看 开始
03:33
Yes, yes, yes, women妇女 have almost几乎 caught抓住 up.
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没错 没错 女性几乎赶上了
03:38
This is the U.S. public上市.
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这是美国公众的选择
03:41
And this is you. Here you come.
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然后这里是你们的选择 请看
03:45
Ooh.
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03:49
Well, congratulations祝贺, you're
twice两次 as good as the Swedes瑞典人,
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祝贺大家 你们的正确率比瑞典人高一倍
03:51
but you don't need me —
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但是你们不需要我来
03:53
So how come? I think it's like this,
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怎么会这样? 我想这是因为
03:58
that everyone大家 is aware知道的 that there are countries国家
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大家都知道在有些国家
04:01
and there are areas
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有些地区
04:02
where girls女孩 have great difficulties困难.
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女孩子们依然处于巨大的困境之中
04:04
They are stopped停止 when they go to school学校,
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她们不被允许去学校
04:06
and it's disgusting讨厌.
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这是令人无法接受的
04:08
But in the majority多数 of the world世界,
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但是在世界上的大部分地方
04:10
where most people in the world世界 live生活,
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在大部分人生活的地区
04:11
most countries国家, girls女孩 today今天 go to school学校
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绝大多数国家
女孩子们上学的时间
04:14
as long as boys男孩, more or less.
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和男孩子们一样长 或多或少
04:17
That doesn't mean that gender性别 equity公平 is achieved实现,
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这并不意味着男女平等已经实现了
04:19
not at all.
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完全不是
04:21
They still are confined受限 to terrible可怕, terrible可怕 limitations限制,
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她们依然受到许多严重的束缚
04:26
but schooling教育 is there in the world世界 today今天.
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但学校教育已经成为了主流
04:28
Now, we miss小姐 the majority多数.
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现在 我们忽略了大多数情形
04:32
When you answer回答, you answer回答
according根据 to the worst最差 places地方,
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当你回答问题时 你以最差的情形为依据
04:35
and there you are right, but you miss小姐 the majority多数.
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这并不意味着你错了
但是你把大多数情形给忽略了
04:38
What about poverty贫穷?
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关于贫困呢?
04:40
Well, it's very clear明确 that poverty贫穷 here
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非常明显
04:42
was almost几乎 halved减半,
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贫困率几乎减半
04:44
and in U.S., when we asked the public上市,
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然而在美国 但我们向公众提问时
04:46
only five percent百分 got it right.
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只有5%的人回答正确
04:50
And you?
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那你们呢?
04:53
Ah, you almost几乎 made制作 it to the chimps黑猩猩.
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差一点就跟黑猩猩一样了
04:57
(Laughter笑声) (Applause掌声)
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(笑声)(掌声)
04:59
That little, just a few少数 of you!
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一点点 就差你们中的一小部分人!
05:05
There must必须 be preconceived先入为主 ideas思路, you know.
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先入为主的观念是一定存在的
05:08
And many许多 in the rich丰富 countries国家,
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很多富裕国家都认为
05:10
they think that oh, we can never end结束 extreme极端 poverty贫穷.
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我们永远无法消除极端贫困
05:14
Of course课程 they think so,
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他们当然是这么认为的
05:15
because they don't even know what has happened发生.
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因为他们根本不知道发生了些什么
05:18
The first thing to think about the future未来
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想要预知未来
05:21
is to know about the present当下.
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必须先了解现在
05:23
These questions问题 were a few少数 of the first ones那些
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以上这些问题是由我们负责的Gapminder基金会
05:26
in the pilot飞行员 phase of the Ignorance无知 Project项目
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在"无知项目"的试运行阶段
05:29
in GapminderGapminder Foundation基础 that we run,
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所提出的问题中的一部分
05:32
and it was started开始, this project项目, last year
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这个项目是在去年 由我的老板
05:35
by my boss老板, and also my son儿子, Ola奥拉 Rosling罗斯林. (Laughter笑声)
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同时也是我的儿子 奥拉·罗斯林启动的 (笑声)
05:39
He's cofounder联合创始人 and director导向器,
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他是联合创始人兼总监
05:41
and he wanted, Ola奥拉 told me
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并且他想要 奥拉告诉我
05:43
we have to be more systematic系统的
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我们在对抗惊人的无知的战斗中
05:45
when we fight斗争 devastating破坏性的 ignorance无知.
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需要更具有系统性
05:47
So already已经 the pilots飞行员 reveal揭示 this,
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试运行结果已经表明
05:49
that so many许多 in the public上市 score得分了 worse更差 than random随机,
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有许多公众的得分比随机选择还要低
05:52
so we have to think about preconceived先入为主 ideas思路,
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所以我们不得不对那些先入为主的观点进行思考
05:54
and one of the main主要 preconceived先入为主 ideas思路
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其中一个主要的观点是
05:57
is about world世界 income收入 distribution分配.
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关于世界上的收入分配
05:58
Look here. This is how it was in 1975.
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看这个 这是1975年的数据
06:02
It's the number of people on each income收入,
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是人均收入的数值
06:05
from one dollar美元 a day —
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从每天一美元
06:08
(Applause掌声)
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(掌声)
06:11
See, there was one hump驼峰 here,
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看 这里有一个高峰
06:13
around one dollar美元 a day,
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在每天一美元左右
06:15
and then there was one hump驼峰 here
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然后这里还有一个高峰
06:16
somewhere某处 between之间 10 and 100 dollars美元.
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大约在10到100美元之间
06:18
The world世界 was two groups.
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世界上有两大群体
06:20
It was a camel骆驼 world世界, like a camel骆驼 with two humps,
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像骆驼一样 有两个驼峰
06:24
the poor较差的 ones那些 and the rich丰富 ones那些,
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穷人和富人
06:26
and there were fewer in between之间.
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介于两者之间的人较少
06:27
But look how this has changed:
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但是我们来看看数字是如何变化的
06:29
As I go forward前锋, what has changed,
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随着时间推移 发生了什么样的变化
06:31
the world世界 population人口 has grown长大的,
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随着世界人口的增长
06:33
and the humps start开始 to merge合并.
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两个驼峰开始合并
06:36
The lower降低 humps merged合并的 with the upper hump驼峰,
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低的驼峰向高的驼峰融合
06:38
and the camel骆驼 dies and we have a dromedary单峰驼 world世界
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骆驼死了
然后我们得到了一头新的单峰骆驼
06:41
with one hump驼峰 only.
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只有一个驼峰
06:44
The percent百分 in poverty贫穷 has decreased下降.
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贫困人口的比例减少了
06:46
Still it's appalling骇人听闻的
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但是依然很惊人
06:47
that so many许多 remain in extreme极端 poverty贫穷.
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有这么多人仍然生活在极端贫困中
06:50
We still have this group, almost几乎 a billion十亿, over there,
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大概还有接近10亿人
06:53
but that can be ended结束 now.
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但这是可以被终结的
06:57
The challenge挑战 we have now
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我们现在所面临的挑战是
06:59
is to get away from that,
understand理解 where the majority多数 is,
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如何摆脱这些观念 去了解大多数人的处境
07:02
and that is very clearly明确地 shown显示 in this question.
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这一点在以下问题中得到了充分的体现
07:05
We asked, what is the percentage百分比 of the world's世界
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问 世界上有多少比例的一岁儿童
07:07
one-year-old一岁 children孩子 who have got those
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接种了那些我们已经使用了多年的
07:09
basic基本 vaccines疫苗 against反对 measles麻疹 and other things
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对抗麻疹以及其他疾病的
07:11
that we have had for many许多 years年份:
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疫苗
07:13
20, 50 or 80 percent百分?
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百分之20 50 还是80?
07:15
Now, this is what the U.S.
public上市 and the Swedish瑞典 answered回答.
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这是美国和瑞典公众的回答
07:19
Look at the Swedish瑞典 result结果:
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看看瑞典的结果
07:20
you know what the right answer回答 is.
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你就该知道正确的答案是什么了
07:22
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
07:26
Who the heck赫克 is a professor教授 of
global全球 health健康 in that country国家?
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该国有个搞全球健康研究的教授 是谁
07:29
Well, it's me. It's me.
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好吧 是我
07:31
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
07:33
It's very difficult, this. It's very difficult.
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这非常难 非常困难
07:35
(Applause掌声)
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(掌声)
07:38
However然而, Ola's奥拉的 approach途径
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然而 奥拉用于
07:42
to really measure测量 what we know made制作 headlines新闻头条,
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测量我们所知多少的方法 上了头条
07:45
and CNNCNN published发表 these results结果 on their web卷筒纸
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CNN在网站上公布了调查结果
07:48
and they had the questions问题 there, millions百万 answered回答,
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有几百万人回答了这些问题
07:50
and I think there were about 2,000 comments注释,
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然后我记得大概有两千多条评论
07:54
and this was one of the comments注释.
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其中一条是这么说的
07:56
"I bet赌注 no member会员 of the media媒体
passed通过 the test测试," he said.
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"我打赌新闻界没人能通过这个测试" 他说
08:00
So Ola奥拉 told me, "Take these devices设备.
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然后奥拉跟我说"带上这些设备
08:02
You are invited邀请 to media媒体 conferences会议.
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你被邀请参加的是媒体圈的会议
08:04
Give it to them and measure测量 what the media媒体 know."
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分给他们 然后测一测新闻界知道多少"
08:06
And ladies女士们 and gentlemen绅士,
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女士们 先生们
08:08
for the first time, the informal非正式的 results结果
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首先 是来自一场美国媒体会议上的
08:11
from a conference会议 with U.S. media媒体.
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非正式结果
08:15
And then, lately最近, from the European欧洲的 Union联盟 media媒体.
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之后 是来自欧盟媒体的
08:20
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
08:21
You see, the problem问题 is not that people
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大家看 问题并不在于
08:23
don't read and listen to the media媒体.
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人们不读或者不听新闻
08:25
The problem问题 is that the
media媒体 doesn't know themselves他们自己.
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问题在于连媒体自己都不知道
08:29
What shall we do about this, Ola奥拉?
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我们对此该怎么办呢 奥拉?
08:31
Do we have any ideas思路?
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有什么主意吗?
08:32
(Applause掌声)
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(掌声)
08:44
Ola奥拉 Rosling罗斯林: Yes, I have an idea理念, but first,
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奥拉·罗斯林:是的 我有个主意 但首先
08:47
I'm so sorry that you were beaten殴打 by the chimps黑猩猩.
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对于你们被黑猩猩打败 我表示很抱歉
08:51
Fortunately幸好, I will be able能够 to comfort安慰 you
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幸运的是 我有办法安慰你们
08:54
by showing展示 why it was not your fault故障, actually其实.
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因为其实这不是你们的错
08:58
Then, I will equip装备 you with some tricks技巧
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然后 我会给你们提供一些窍门
09:00
for beating跳动 the chimps黑猩猩 in the future未来.
195
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以便你们以后能够打败黑猩猩
09:02
That's basically基本上 what I will do.
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我接下去会做的基本就是这些
09:05
But first, let's look at why are we so ignorant愚昧,
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首先 来看看为什么我们会如此的无知
09:07
and it all starts启动 in this place地点.
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一切都始于这个地方
09:09
It's Hudiksvall胡迪克斯瓦尔. It's a city in northern北方 Sweden瑞典.
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这是胡迪克斯瓦尔 瑞典北部的一座城市
09:13
It's a neighborhood邻里 where I grew成长 up,
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我在这个地方长大
09:17
and it's a neighborhood邻里 with a large problem问题.
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这个地方有着一个很大的问题
09:20
Actually其实, it has exactly究竟 the same相同 problem问题
202
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实际上 这个地方
09:22
which哪一个 existed存在 in all the neighborhoods社区
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跟你们从小所居住的那些地方
09:25
where you grew成长 up as well.
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存在着一模一样的问题
09:26
It was not representative代表. Okay?
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那就是不具备典型性
09:29
It gave me a very biased view视图
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他让我对于“其他人是如何生活的”
09:32
of how life is on this planet行星.
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的看法是带有很强烈的偏见的
09:34
So this is the first piece of the ignorance无知 puzzle难题.
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所以这是“无知拼图”的第一块
09:37
We have a personal个人 bias偏压.
209
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我们有个人偏见
09:38
We have all different不同 experiences经验
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我们在各自的社区 和我们所遇见的人身上
09:40
from communities社区 and people we meet遇到,
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所获得经验都是不同的
09:42
and on top最佳 of this, we start开始 school学校,
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在此之上 我们还会上学
09:45
and we add the next下一个 problem问题.
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这就带来了下一个问题
09:47
Well, I like schools学校,
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当然 我喜欢学校
09:48
but teachers教师 tend趋向 to teach outdated过时的 worldviews世界观,
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但老师们倾向于教授过时的世界观
09:53
because they learned学到了 something
when they went to school学校,
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因为这些东西是他们上学的时候学到的
09:56
and now they describe描述 this world世界 to the students学生们
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现在 尽管不带有任何的恶意
09:58
without any bad intentions意图,
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他们又将这些知识教给了学生
10:00
and those books图书, of course课程, that are printed印刷的
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还有书 在这个瞬息万变的世界里
10:03
are outdated过时的 in a world世界 that changes变化.
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那些印刷出来的书 当然也是过时的
10:06
And there is really no practice实践
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并且没有一个有效的措施
10:07
to keep the teaching教学 material材料 up to date日期.
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能使教材与时俱进
10:10
So that's what we are focusing调焦 on.
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所以这就是我们的关注点
10:12
So we have these outdated过时的 facts事实
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我们知道的是过时的情况
10:14
added添加 on top最佳 of our personal个人 bias偏压.
225
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加上我们的个人偏见
10:17
What happens发生 next下一个 is news新闻, okay?
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接下去就是新闻了 对吧?
10:19
An excellent优秀 journalist记者 knows知道 how to pick
227
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一个杰出的记者很清楚
10:22
the story故事 that will make headlines新闻头条,
228
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要如何选题才能上头条
10:24
and people will read it because it's sensational轰动的.
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人们之所以会看是因为它耸人听闻
10:27
Unusual异常 events事件 are more interesting有趣, no?
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不寻常的事件才更有意思 不是吗?
10:30
And they are exaggerated夸张的,
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然后他们会夸大其词
10:32
and especially特别 things we're afraid害怕 of.
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尤其是那些令我们害怕的事情
10:36
A shark鲨鱼 attack攻击 on a Swedish瑞典 person
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一名瑞典人遭到鲨鱼的攻击
10:38
will get headlines新闻头条 for weeks in Sweden瑞典.
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这类新闻会在瑞典媒体上保持头条几星期
10:42
So these three skewed偏斜 sources来源 of information信息
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我们很难摆脱
10:46
were really hard to get away from.
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这三类歪曲的消息来源
10:49
They kind of bombard轰击 us
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它们对我们狂轰滥炸
10:50
and equip装备 our mind心神 with a lot of strange奇怪 ideas思路,
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并且用许多奇怪的观点武装来我们的思维
10:54
and on top最佳 of it we put the very thing
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在此基础上 再加上一项人类独特的功能
10:57
that makes品牌 us humans人类, our human人的 intuition直觉.
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我们的直觉
11:02
It was good in evolution演化.
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直觉对进化是有利的
11:04
It helped帮助 us generalize概括
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它帮助我们很快的进行
11:06
and jump to conclusions结论 very, very fast快速.
243
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归纳和总结
11:08
It helped帮助 us exaggerate夸大 what we were afraid害怕 of,
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帮助我们夸大我们所惧之事
11:12
and we seek寻求 causality因果关系 where there is none没有,
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当所惧之事没有发生时
我们就会寻找其中的因果关系
11:15
and we then get an illusion错觉 of confidence置信度
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然后我们会获得莫名的自信
11:20
where we believe that we are the best最好 car汽车 drivers司机,
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比如我们都自信自己是最好的司机
11:23
above以上 the average平均.
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高于平均水平
11:25
Everybody每个人 answered回答 that question,
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每个人都会回答:
11:26
"Yeah, I drive驾驶 cars汽车 better."
250
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没错 我的车开的更好
11:27
Okay, this was good evolutionarily进化,
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好吧 这对进化来说是件好事
11:30
but now when it comes to the worldview世界观,
252
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但是 当涉及到世界观时
11:32
it is the exact精确 reason原因 why it's upside上边 down.
253
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这恰恰是导致结论颠倒的原因
11:34
The trends趋势 that are increasing增加 are instead代替 falling落下,
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有些趋势在上升而不是下降
11:37
and the other way around,
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有些则相反
11:39
and in this case案件, the chimps黑猩猩
use our intuition直觉 against反对 us,
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在这个例子中 黑猩猩利用我们的直觉打败了我们
11:43
and it becomes our weakness弱点 instead代替 of our strength强度.
257
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并且这逐渐成为了我们的弱点 而不是优势
11:46
It was supposed应该 to be our strength强度, wasn't it?
258
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这应该是我们的优势所在的 不是吗?
11:49
So how do we solve解决 such这样 problems问题?
259
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那么我们该如何解决这类问题呢?
11:51
First, we need to measure测量 it,
260
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首先 我们要进行衡量
11:53
and then we need to cure治愈 it.
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然后我们再来纠正
11:54
So by measuring测量 it we can understand理解
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这里指的衡量 是我们能够明白
11:57
what is the pattern模式 of ignorance无知.
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造成无知的规律是什么
11:59
We started开始 the pilot飞行员 last year,
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试运行是去年启动的
12:01
and now we're pretty漂亮 sure that we will encounter遭遇
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现在我们很肯定的是 在全球范围内
12:03
a lot of ignorance无知 across横过 the whole整个 world世界,
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我们对许多东西是无知的
12:07
and the idea理念 is really to
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我们的想法是
12:10
scale规模 it up to all domains
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将此扩展到关系到全球发展的所有领域
12:12
or dimensions尺寸 of global全球 development发展,
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或者维度
12:15
such这样 as climate气候, endangered濒危 species种类, human人的 rights权利,
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比如气候 濒危物种 人权
12:19
gender性别 equality平等, energy能源, finance金融.
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性别平等 能源 金融
12:22
All different不同 sectors行业 have facts事实,
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每个行业都会有一些真相
12:25
and there are organizations组织 trying to spread传播
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并有一些组织正在努力扩大
12:27
awareness意识 about these facts事实.
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大众对于这些真相的认知度
12:28
So I've started开始 actually其实 contacting联系 some of them,
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所以我联系了其中的一些
12:32
like WWFWWF and Amnesty大赦 International国际 and UNICEF联合国儿童基金会,
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像世界自然基金会 国际特赦组织
和联合国儿童基金会
12:36
and asking them, what are your favorite喜爱 facts事实
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我问他们 “有哪些你们所熟知的事
12:38
which哪一个 you think the public上市 doesn't know?
278
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你认为公众是不知道的?”
12:40
Okay, I gather收集 those facts事实.
279
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好了 我收集到了如下事实
12:42
Imagine想像 a long list名单 with, say, 250 facts事实.
280
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想像一下 一张很长的清单
大概列举了250项
12:45
And then we poll轮询 the public上市
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然后我们对公众进行调查
12:46
and see where they score得分了 worst最差.
282
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由此知道哪些项目得分是最低的
12:48
So we get a shorter list名单
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然后我们获得了一个短一点的清单
12:50
with the terrible可怕 results结果,
284
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其结果令人震惊
12:51
like some few少数 examples例子 from Hans汉斯,
285
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比如之前汉斯给出的一些例子
12:53
and we have no problem问题 finding发现 these kinds
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我们可以轻而易举的给出
12:55
of terrible可怕 results结果.
287
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这类令人震惊的结果
12:56
Okay, this little shortlist名单, what
are we going to do with it?
288
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好了 对于这张短一点的清单
我们可以做些什么?
12:59
Well, we turn it into a knowledge知识 certificate证书,
289
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我们把它变成了一张“知识证书”
13:03
a global全球 knowledge知识 certificate证书,
290
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一张全球知识证书 可供你使用的
13:05
which哪一个 you can use, if you're a large organization组织,
291
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如果你是一个大型组织
13:08
a school学校, a university大学, or maybe a news新闻 agency机构,
292
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一所学校 大学 或者新闻通讯社
13:12
to certify证明 yourself你自己 as globally全球 knowledgeable懂行.
293
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用来验证你自己具有全球化的知识体系
13:16
Basically基本上 meaning含义, we don't hire聘请 people
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本质上来说 我们不会聘用
13:19
who score得分了 like chimpanzees黑猩猩.
295
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那些得分和黑猩猩一样高的人
13:21
Of course课程 you shouldn't不能.
296
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当然 你也不应该
13:23
So maybe 10 years年份 from now,
297
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所以也许10年之后
13:25
if this project项目 succeeds成功,
298
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如果这个项目获得成功
13:27
you will be sitting坐在 in an interview访问
299
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你将不得不在面试中
13:30
having to fill out this crazy global全球 knowledge知识.
300
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写出这些全球知识
13:34
So now we come to the practical实际的 tricks技巧.
301
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现在我们来谈谈实用的技巧
13:37
How are you going to succeed成功?
302
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要如何才能做到?
13:39
There is, of course课程, one way,
303
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当然 有一种方法
13:43
which哪一个 is to sit down late晚了 nights
304
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就是你通宵达旦的
13:44
and learn学习 all the facts事实 by heart
305
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2155
阅读各种报告
13:47
by reading all these reports报告.
306
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并把所有的知识点都记在心里
13:48
That will never happen发生, actually其实.
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实际上 这是不可能发生的
13:50
Not even Hans汉斯 thinks that's going to happen发生.
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连汉斯都不会相信这种事情会发生
13:53
People don't have that time.
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人们没那么多时间
13:54
People like shortcuts快捷键, and here are the shortcuts快捷键.
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人们喜欢捷径 现在 捷径来了
13:58
We need to turn our intuition直觉 into strength强度 again.
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我们要再次把我们的直觉变成一种优势
14:01
We need to be able能够 to generalize概括.
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我们要有能力去概括
14:02
So now I'm going to show显示 you some tricks技巧
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现在我会给向家展示一些技巧
14:04
where the misconceptions误解 are turned转身 around
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以此将误解转变成为
14:07
into rules规则 of thumb拇指.
315
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指导意见
14:10
Let's start开始 with the first misconception误解.
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我们从第一个误解开始
14:12
This is very widespread广泛.
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这是一个广泛流传的误解
14:14
Everything is getting得到 worse更差.
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所有的事都在朝更坏的方向发展
14:15
You heard听说 it. You thought it yourself你自己.
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你听说过 你自己也是这么想的
14:19
The other way to think is, most things improve提高.
320
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从另一个角度想一想
其实大多数事情都在变好
14:22
So you're sitting坐在 with a question in front面前 of you
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所以当你面前出现了一个问题
14:24
and you're unsure不确定. You should guess猜测 "improve提高."
322
852383
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而你不太确定答案时 你应该猜“进步”
14:27
Okay? Don't go for the worse更差.
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好吗? 别选坏的那个
14:30
That will help you score得分了 better on our tests测试.
324
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这会帮助你在我们的测试中获得更高的分数
14:32
(Applause掌声)
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(掌声)
14:34
That was the first one.
326
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这是第一点
14:38
There are rich丰富 and poor较差的
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穷人和富人之间的
14:40
and the gap间隙 is increasing增加.
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868164
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贫富差距正在拉大
14:41
It's a terrible可怕 inequality不等式.
329
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非常的不平等
14:43
Yeah, it's an unequal不等 world世界,
330
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是的 这是个不平等的世界
14:45
but when you look at the data数据, it's one hump驼峰.
331
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2325
但是当你对照数据时 会发现只有一个驼峰
14:47
Okay? If you feel unsure不确定,
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875811
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对吗? 所以如果你觉得不确定
14:49
go for "the most people are in the middle中间."
333
877665
2753
就选“大部分人在中间”
14:52
That's going to help you get the answer回答 right.
334
880418
1983
这会帮助你正确的回答问题
14:54
Now, the next下一个 preconceived先入为主 idea理念 is
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现在 下一个先入为主的观点是
14:58
first countries国家 and people need to be very, very rich丰富
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发达国家和人民需要在非常富裕的情况下
15:01
to get the social社会 development发展
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社会才能得以发展
15:04
like girls女孩 in school学校 and be ready准备 for natural自然 disasters灾害.
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例如让女孩子上学 或者抵御自然灾害
15:07
No, no, no. That's wrong错误.
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不不不 这是错误的
15:09
Look: that huge巨大 hump驼峰 in the middle中间
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看 处于中间的那一大块驼峰
15:11
already已经 have girls女孩 in school学校.
341
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已经解决了女孩上学的问题
15:13
So if you are unsure不确定, go for the
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所以如果你不确定 就选
15:16
"the majority多数 already已经 have this,"
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”大部分已经实现了“
15:17
like electricity电力 and girls女孩 in
school学校, these kinds of things.
344
905482
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例如电力 女性教育 这一类的问题
15:20
They're only rules规则 of thumb拇指,
345
908525
2216
这些只是指导意见
15:22
so of course课程 they don't apply应用 to everything,
346
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所以并不适用于所有情况
15:25
but this is how you can generalize概括.
347
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但这能帮你进行总结概括
15:26
Let's look at the last one.
348
914788
1965
我们来看看最后一个
15:28
If something, yes, this is a good one,
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如果有什么 没错 这张照片很赞
15:32
sharks鲨鱼 are dangerous危险.
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鲨鱼很危险
15:34
No — well, yes, but they are not so important重要
351
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其实不是 话虽不错 但是没那么严重
15:38
in the global全球 statistics统计, that is what I'm saying.
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从全球的数据来看 这是我想说的
15:41
I actually其实, I'm very afraid害怕 of sharks鲨鱼.
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2531
其实 我本人非常害怕鲨鱼
15:44
So as soon不久 as I see a question
about things I'm afraid害怕 of,
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2844
当我看到那些关于我所害怕的东西的提问时
15:46
which哪一个 might威力 be earthquakes地震, other religions宗教,
355
934977
2933
比如地震 其他宗教
15:49
maybe I'm afraid害怕 of terrorists恐怖分子 or sharks鲨鱼,
356
937910
3038
比如我害怕恐怖分子和鲨鱼
15:52
anything that makes品牌 me feel,
357
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1159
任何让我感到害怕的东西
15:54
assume承担 you're going to exaggerate夸大 the problem问题.
358
942107
2501
你很有可能会夸大问题的严重性
15:56
That's a rule规则 of thumb拇指.
359
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1837
这是指导意见之一
15:58
Of course课程 there are dangerous危险
things that are also great.
360
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2159
当然 有些危险的事物确实会造成严重的后果
16:00
Sharks鲨鱼 kill very, very few少数.
That's how you should think.
361
948604
3585
因鲨鱼致死的人非常少
这才是你应有的思维方式
16:04
With these four rules规则 of thumb拇指,
362
952189
3738
有了以上四条技巧
16:07
you could probably大概 answer回答 better than the chimps黑猩猩,
363
955927
3360
你很有可能会取得比黑猩猩更好的成绩
16:11
because the chimps黑猩猩 cannot不能 do this.
364
959287
1954
因为黑猩猩无法做到这些
16:13
They cannot不能 generalize概括 these kinds of rules规则.
365
961241
2603
他们无法总结概括这些技巧
16:15
And hopefully希望 we can turn your world世界 around
366
963844
4012
希望我们能够改变你的世界
16:19
and we're going to beat击败 the chimps黑猩猩. Okay?
367
967856
2835
然后我们一起来打败黑猩猩 好吗
16:22
(Applause掌声)
368
970691
3921
(掌声)
16:31
That's a systematic系统的 approach途径.
369
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2088
这是一个系统的方法
16:33
Now the question, is this important重要?
370
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2564
那么现在问题来了 这很重要吗
16:35
Yeah, it's important重要 to understand理解 poverty贫穷,
371
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2726
是的 这对理解贫穷
16:38
extreme极端 poverty贫穷 and how to fight斗争 it,
372
986538
3247
极端贫穷 以及如何与之斗争很重要
16:41
and how to bring带来 girls女孩 in school学校.
373
989785
2045
以及如何让女孩子们上学
16:43
When we realize实现 that actually其实 it's
succeeding下一, we can understand理解 it.
374
991830
4340
当意识到这些问题实际正在改善时
我们才能理解这些问题本身
但是 会有人在意处于富裕一端的人吗
16:48
But is it important重要 for everyone大家 else其他
375
996170
1812
16:49
who cares管它 about the rich丰富 end结束 of this scale规模?
376
997982
2454
这很重要吗
16:52
I would say yes, extremely非常 important重要,
377
1000436
2044
我想说是的 非常非常重要
16:54
for the same相同 reason原因.
378
1002480
1509
同样的理由
16:55
If you have a fact-based以事实为依据 worldview世界观 of today今天,
379
1003989
3065
如果你对当今世界的认知是基于事实的
16:59
you might威力 have a chance机会 to understand理解
380
1007054
1618
那么你才可能会有机会去预测
17:00
what's coming未来 next下一个 in the future未来.
381
1008672
1754
将来会发生什么
17:02
We're going back to these two humps in 1975.
382
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2438
我们回过头来看1975年的这两个峰值
17:04
That's when I was born天生,
383
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1350
也就是我刚出生的时候
17:06
and I selected the West西.
384
1014214
3019
我选择了西方国家
17:09
That's the current当前 EU欧洲联盟 countries国家 and North America美国.
385
1017233
4183
也就是现在的欧盟和北美国家
17:13
Let's now see how the rest休息 and the West西 compares比较
386
1021416
3383
我们来看看其他地区和西方国家的比较
17:16
in terms条款 of how rich丰富 you are.
387
1024799
2081
关于富裕程度
17:18
These are the people who can afford给予
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2251
这些是能够负担得起
17:21
to fly abroad国外 with an airplane飞机 for a vacation假期.
389
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3578
坐飞机出国度假的人
17:24
In 1975, only 30 percent百分 of them lived生活
390
1032709
3308
1975年的时候 只有30%的人
17:28
outside EU欧洲联盟 and North America美国.
391
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2967
是住在欧盟和北美以外的地区
17:30
But this has changed, okay?
392
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2329
但是情况已经变了
17:33
So first, let's look at the change更改 up till直到 today今天, 2014.
393
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4743
首先 我们来看看当今的情况 2014年
17:38
Today今天 it's 50/50.
394
1046056
1388
现在是一半一半
17:39
The Western西 domination统治 is over, as of today今天.
395
1047444
3681
西方国家的统治在当今已经不复存在了
17:43
That's nice不错. So what's going to happen发生 next下一个?
396
1051125
2199
很好 那么接下去会发生什么呢?
17:45
Do you see the big hump驼峰? Did you see how it moved移动?
397
1053324
3243
你看到那个高峰了吗? 你看到它是如何变化的吗?
17:48
I did a little experiment实验. I went to the IMF国际货币基金组织,
International国际 Monetary货币 Fund基金, website网站.
398
1056567
6031
我做了一个小试验
我查看了国际货币基金组织的网站
17:54
They have a forecast预测 for the next下一个
five years年份 of GDPGDP per capita人头.
399
1062598
4163
他们对今后五年的GDP做了一个预测
17:58
So I can use that to go five years年份 into the future未来,
400
1066761
3017
所以我可以借此来推测未来5年的变化
18:01
assuming假设 the income收入 inequality不等式
of each country国家 is the same相同.
401
1069778
3335
假设各国的贫富差距保持不变
18:05
I did that, but I went even further进一步.
402
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1927
除此以外 我还做了进一步的预测
18:07
I used those five years年份 for the next下一个 20 years年份
403
1075040
3178
我用未来5年的数据对未来20年做了预测
18:10
with the same相同 speed速度, just as an
experiment实验 what might威力 actually其实 happen发生.
404
1078218
5277
同样的变化速度
就像一个实际很可能会发生的试验一样
18:15
Let's move移动 into the future未来.
405
1083495
1367
让我们移步未来
18:16
In 2020, it's 57 percent百分 in the rest休息.
406
1084862
5220
2020年 57%来自非西方国家
18:22
In 2025, 63 percent百分.
407
1090082
3036
2025年 63%
18:25
2030, 68. And in 2035, the West西 is
outnumbered寡不敌众 in the rich丰富 consumer消费者 market市场.
408
1093118
9237
2030年 68% 到了2035年
西方国家在富裕消费者市场中的比例被赶超
18:34
These are just projections预测 of
GDPGDP per capita人头 into the future未来.
409
1102355
3347
这些仅仅是针对未来的GDP所作出的推测
18:37
Seventy-three七十三 percent百分 of the rich丰富 consumers消费者
410
1105702
2355
73%的富裕消费者
18:40
are going to live生活 outside North America美国 and Europe欧洲.
411
1108057
3618
将居住在北美和欧洲以外的地区
18:43
So yes, I think it's a good idea理念 for
a company公司 to use this certificate证书
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1111675
4198
所以没错 我认为公司应该用“知识证书”
18:47
to make sure to make fact-事实-
based基于 decisions决定 in the future未来.
413
1115873
3407
来确保未来能作出基于事实的决策
18:51
Thank you very much.
414
1119280
1476
非常感谢
18:52
(Applause掌声)
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1120756
2501
(掌声)
19:00
Bruno布鲁诺 Giussani吉萨尼: Hans汉斯 and Ola奥拉 Rosling罗斯林!
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Translated by Lea Zhang
Reviewed by Michael Ge 葛叔

▲Back to top

ABOUT THE SPEAKERS
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionary
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus.

Why you should listen

Even the most worldly and well-traveled among us have had their perspectives shifted by Hans Rosling. A professor of global health at Sweden's Karolinska Institute, his work focused on dispelling common myths about the so-called developing world, which (as he pointed out) is no longer worlds away from the West. In fact, most of the Third World is on the same trajectory toward health and prosperity, and many countries are moving twice as fast as the west did.

What set Rosling apart wasn't just his apt observations of broad social and economic trends, but the stunning way he presented them. Guaranteed: You've never seen data presented like this. A presentation that tracks global health and poverty trends should be, in a word: boring. But in Rosling's hands, data sings. Trends come to life. And the big picture — usually hazy at best — snaps into sharp focus.

Rosling's presentations were grounded in solid statistics (often drawn from United Nations and World Bank data), illustrated by the visualization software he developed. The animations transform development statistics into moving bubbles and flowing curves that make global trends clear, intuitive and even playful. During his legendary presentations, Rosling took this one step farther, narrating the animations with a sportscaster's flair.

Rosling developed the breakthrough software behind his visualizations through his nonprofit Gapminder, founded with his son and daughter-in-law. The free software — which can be loaded with any data — was purchased by Google in March 2007. (Rosling met the Google founders at TED.)

Rosling began his wide-ranging career as a physician, spending many years in rural Africa tracking a rare paralytic disease (which he named konzo) and discovering its cause: hunger and badly processed cassava. He co-founded Médecins sans Frontièrs (Doctors without Borders) Sweden, wrote a textbook on global health, and as a professor at the Karolinska Institut in Stockholm initiated key international research collaborations. He's also personally argued with many heads of state, including Fidel Castro.

Hans Rosling passed away in February 2017. He is greatly missed.


More profile about the speaker
Hans Rosling | Speaker | TED.com
Ola Rosling - Director of the Gapminder Foundation
Ola Rosling is the director and co-founder of the Gapminder Foundation. Previously, he was the Google Public Data product manager.

Why you should listen
To fight devastating ignorance, we have to be more systematic about spreading facts that matter. In this talk with Hans Rosling, Ola teaches 4 ways to quickly learn more about the world of facts.
More profile about the speaker
Ola Rosling | Speaker | TED.com

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