TEDGlobal>Geneva
Dambisa Moyo: Economic growth has stalled. Let's fix it
丹碧莎∙莫尤: 经济增长停滞不前－－让我们更正它。
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经济增长是我们这个时代的标志性挑战；没有经济增长，政局社会动荡不安，人类文明会停滞不前，世界也会变的更加灰暗。但是，经济学家丹碧莎∙莫尤说，光靠资本主义是没有办法创造我们所需的经济增长的。她表明，不管是在国家支撑的经济模型还是在市场驱动的经济模式中，资本主义都解决不了社会诟病，反而会滋生腐败现象和贫富差距。莫尤调查了当下的经济形势，然后表明我们人类要把资本主义看作光谱，必须要混合不同模型的优点，共同创造经济增长。
Dambisa Moyo - Global economist
Dambisa Moyo is an international economist who analyzes the macroeconomy and global affairs. Full bio
Dambisa Moyo is an international economist who analyzes the macroeconomy and global affairs. Full bio
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00:13
Our ability to create
and sustain economic growth
and sustain economic growth
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我们去创造和保持经济增长的能力，
00:18
is the defining challenge of our time.
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是我们这个时代的标志性的一个挑战。
00:21
Of course there are other challenges --
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当然， 不是说就没有别的挑战了，
00:23
health care, disease burdens
and pandemics,
and pandemics,
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医疗保健，疾病，流行病，环境问题
00:26
environmental challenges
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都是我们正在面对的挑战
00:29
and, of course, radicalized terrorism.
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当然，还有激进的恐怖主义。
00:32
However,
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然而，
00:34
to the extent that we can actually
solve the economic growth challenge,
solve the economic growth challenge,
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要解决我刚刚说到的
这些问题的难度
这些问题的难度
00:38
it will take us a long way
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远远大于
00:40
to solving the challenges
that I've just elucidated.
that I've just elucidated.
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创造与维持经济增长的难度。
00:43
More importantly,
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更重要的是，
00:45
unless and until we solve economic growth
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除非直到我们解决
00:49
and create sustainable,
long-term economic growth,
long-term economic growth,
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并创造了稳定、长期的经济成长，
00:53
we'll be unable to address
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否则我们将不能解决
00:56
the seemingly intractable challenges
that continue to pervade the globe today,
that continue to pervade the globe today,
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那些棘手的，如今仍散播在全球的挑战，
01:01
whether it's health care,
education or economic development.
education or economic development.
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不论是医疗保健，教育，还是经济发展。
01:06
The fundamental question is this:
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所以根本问题是：
01:09
How are we going to create economic growth
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我们要怎样在经历金融危机后不断挣扎的
01:12
in advanced and developed economies
like the United States and across Europe
like the United States and across Europe
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高度发达的经济体中，
例如美国和欧洲，
01:16
at a time when they continue to struggle
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制造经济增长呢？
01:18
to create economic growth
after the financial crisis?
after the financial crisis?
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01:22
They continue to underperform
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这些经济体持续失常发挥，
01:25
and to see an erosion in the three
key drivers of economic growth:
key drivers of economic growth:
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并且使经济增长的三大要素垮下
01:30
capital, labor and productivity.
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这三个要素是：资本，劳动和生产力。
01:34
In particular,
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特别需要注意的是，
01:35
these developed economies
continue to see debts and deficits,
continue to see debts and deficits,
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那些发达的经济体中，
持续有负债、财政赤字、
持续有负债、财政赤字、
01:40
the decline and erosion
of both the quality and quantity of labor
of both the quality and quantity of labor
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劳动力质量与数量上的下降与侵蚀的问题、
01:45
and they also see productivity stalling.
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同时也看到生产力停滞现象。
01:48
In a similar vein,
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同样的脉络下，
01:50
how are we going to create
economic growth in the emerging markets,
economic growth in the emerging markets,
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我们要如何在
01:53
where 90 percent
of the world's population lives
of the world's population lives
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住着世界上90%的人口，
其中平均70%人口25岁以下的新兴市场里
01:57
and where, on average,
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01:58
70 percent of the population
is under the age of 25?
is under the age of 25?
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创造经济增长呢？
02:02
In these countries,
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在发达国家，
02:04
it is essential that they grow
at a minimum of seven percent a year
at a minimum of seven percent a year
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每年保持最低 7% 的经济增长至关重要，
02:08
in order to put a dent in poverty
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以此保证贫困人口的减少，
02:10
and to double per capita incomes
in one generation.
in one generation.
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完成人均收入在一代人的时间里翻倍的目标。
02:14
And yet today,
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但是现在，
02:16
the largest emerging economies --
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最大的新兴经济体--
02:18
countries with at least
50 million people --
50 million people --
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那些至少有五千万人口的国家 --
02:21
continue to struggle to reach
that seven percent magic mark.
that seven percent magic mark.
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仍然很难达到那百分之七的增长。
02:25
Worse than that,
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更可怕的是，
02:27
countries like India, Russia,
South Africa, Brazil and even China
South Africa, Brazil and even China
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像印度、俄罗斯、南非、
巴西这些国家，甚至是中国，
巴西这些国家，甚至是中国，
02:31
are falling below
that seven percent number
that seven percent number
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经济增长远远落后于百分之七。
02:34
and, in many cases, actually regressing.
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而且，很多国家实际上正在倒退。
经济增长至关重要。
02:37
Economic growth matters.
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02:40
With economic growth,
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只有经济进步了，
02:41
countries and societies
enter into a virtuous cycle
enter into a virtuous cycle
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国家和社会才可以有一个
02:46
of upward mobility, opportunity
and improved living standards.
and improved living standards.
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社会经济地位上升流动性、机遇、
和高生活质量的良性循环，
和高生活质量的良性循环，
02:51
Without growth,
countries contract and atrophy,
countries contract and atrophy,
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假设没有了经济增长，
不仅这个国家每年的经济统计数据会缩水
02:55
not just in the annals
of economic statistics
of economic statistics
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02:58
but also in the meaning of life
and how lives are lived.
and how lives are lived.
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同时人们的生活水平也会降低。
03:02
Economic growth matters
powerfully for the individual.
powerfully for the individual.
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经济增长对个体的影响十分巨大。
一旦增长趋势平缓了，
03:07
If growth wanes,
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03:08
the risk to human progress
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人类发展
03:10
and the risk of political
and social instability rises,
and social instability rises,
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和社会政局动荡的风险大大提高，
03:15
and societies become dimmer,
coarser and smaller.
coarser and smaller.
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这样一来，社会就变得灰暗，动乱， 脆弱。
03:20
The context matters.
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这个背景是重要的。
03:22
And countries in emerging markets
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而新兴市场的国家
03:23
do not need to grow at the same
rates as developed countries.
rates as developed countries.
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不需要和发达国家发展的一样快。
03:29
Now, I know some of you in this room
find this to be a risky proposition.
find this to be a risky proposition.
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是的，我知道在场的你们中间一些人
会觉得这是一个大胆的说法。
会觉得这是一个大胆的说法。
03:34
There are some people here
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这里的一部分人
03:36
who will turn around
and be quite disillusioned
and be quite disillusioned
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会转过身去，
对地球上正在发生的种种坏事唏嘘不已，
03:39
by what's happened around the world
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03:40
and basically ascribe that
to economic growth.
to economic growth.
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并把一切归咎于经济增长。
03:44
You worry about the
overpopulation of the planet.
overpopulation of the planet.
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你们会担心全球人口过多。
03:47
And looking at the UN's
recent statistics and projections
recent statistics and projections
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联合国最新的数据表明
03:50
that the world will have
11 billion people on the planet
11 billion people on the planet
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世界人口增长在2100年会进入平稳
03:53
before it plateaus in 2100,
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但那之前人口会到达110亿之多，
03:56
you're concerned about what that does
to natural resources --
to natural resources --
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因此你们开始担心自然资源的问题--
03:59
arable land, potable water,
energy and minerals.
energy and minerals.
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可耕种的土地，可饮用水源，
能源和矿产是否够用。
能源和矿产是否够用。
04:04
You are also concerned about
the degradation of the environment.
the degradation of the environment.
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你们同样也会担心环境的恶化。
04:08
And you worry about how man,
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你们还会想
04:11
embodied in the corporate globalist,
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提倡全世界和平共处的人类
04:14
has become greedy and corrupt.
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是怎么会变的这样贪婪和腐败。
但是我今天在这里是要告诉你们的是
04:18
But I'm here to tell you today
that economic growth
that economic growth
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经济增长
恰恰是改善成千上万人生活的脊柱。
04:21
has been the backbone
of changes in living standards
of changes in living standards
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04:25
of millions of people around the world.
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04:27
And more importantly,
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更要强调的是，
04:29
it's not just economic growth
that has been driven by capitalism.
that has been driven by capitalism.
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经济成长并不是
只被资本主义所主导。
只被资本主义所主导。
04:36
The definition of capitalism,
very simply put,
very simply put,
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资本主义的定义，简单地说，
04:39
is that the factors of production,
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就是那些生产力因素，
04:41
such as trade and industry,
capital and labor,
capital and labor,
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像是，贸易、工业、资本和劳动力，
04:45
are left in the hands
of the private sector and not the state.
of the private sector and not the state.
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掌握在私人企业而非国家手上的部分。
04:49
It's really essential here
that we understand
that we understand
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在这里，非常关键的一点是要知道
04:52
that fundamentally the critique
is not for economic growth per se
is not for economic growth per se
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应被指责的不是经济增长本身，
04:57
but what has happened to capitalism.
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而是资本主义的变味。
04:59
And to the extent that we need to create
economic growth over the long term,
economic growth over the long term,
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所以考虑到长期制造经济增长的需求，
05:03
we're going to have to pursue it
with a better form of economic stance.
with a better form of economic stance.
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我们必須用较好的
经济角度去追寻它。
经济角度去追寻它。
05:09
Economic growth needs capitalism,
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经济增长确实需要资本主义，
05:12
but it needs it to work properly.
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但是必须是适当运作的资本主义。
05:14
And as I mentioned a moment ago,
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正如我之前提到的
05:17
the core of the capitalist system
has been defined by private actors.
has been defined by private actors.
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资本主义系统的核心已经被
私人企业所定义控制住了。
私人企业所定义控制住了。
05:23
And even this, however,
is a very simplistic dichotomy.
is a very simplistic dichotomy.
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然而，即使这只是很简单的二分法：
05:27
Capitalism: good; non-capitalism: bad.
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资本主义：好；非资本主义：不好。
05:31
When in practical experience,
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但要知道在实践中，
05:33
capitalism is much more of a spectrum.
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资本主义像是个光谱。
（资本的分配有很多种方式）
（资本的分配有很多种方式）
05:36
And we have countries such as China,
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我们有像是中国这类的国家，
05:38
which have practiced
more state capitalism,
more state capitalism,
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是实行国家资本主义的
（国家掌控资本），
（国家掌控资本），
05:41
and we have countries
like the Unites States
like the Unites States
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而像美国那样的国家，
05:43
which are more market capitalist.
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是实行市场经济主义的
（资本在市场流通）。
（资本在市场流通）。
05:45
Our efforts to critique
the capitalist system, however,
the capitalist system, however,
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两个都是资本主义，但对资本主义的批评，
05:48
have tended to focus
on countries like China
on countries like China
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却基本是冲着中国那样的
05:51
that are in fact
not blatantly market capitalism.
not blatantly market capitalism.
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不是纯市场资本主义的国家去的。
05:55
However, there is
a real reason and real concern
a real reason and real concern
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然而，我们有一个真正的理由
及真正要注意的地方就是
及真正要注意的地方就是
05:59
for us to now focus our attentions
on purer forms of capitalism,
on purer forms of capitalism,
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现在要把注意力放在
有较单纯架构的资本主义上面，
有较单纯架构的资本主义上面，
06:03
particularly those embodied
by the United States.
by the United States.
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特别是那些由美国
体现出来的资本主义。
体现出来的资本主义。
06:07
This is really important
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这个非常之重要，
06:09
because this type of capitalism
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因为这一类的市场资本主义
06:11
has increasingly
been afforded the critique
been afforded the critique
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滋养腐败的一面开始遭受
06:14
that it is now fostering corruption
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越来越多的批判，
06:17
and, worse still,
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更可怕的是
06:18
it's increasing income inequality --
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市场资本主义导致的
贫富收入差距越来越严峻 --
贫富收入差距越来越严峻 --
06:22
the idea that the few are benefiting
at the expense of the many.
at the expense of the many.
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也就是少数人享受着
多数人劳动成果的问题。
多数人劳动成果的问题。
06:28
The two really critical questions
that we need to address
that we need to address
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这里有两个我们需要解决的关键性问题。
06:32
is how can we fix capitalism
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第一个是我们要怎样修正资本主义，
06:34
so that it can help create economic growth
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使它有利于经济增长
06:37
but at the same time
can help to address social ills.
can help to address social ills.
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而同时又有助于铲除社会诟病。
06:41
In order to think about that framing,
we have to ask ourselves,
we have to ask ourselves,
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为了要思考这个架构，
我们必须问我们自己，
我们必须问我们自己，
06:45
how does capitalism work today?
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如今的资本主义到底是怎样运作的。
06:47
Very simplistically,
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答案很简单，
06:49
capitalism is set on the basis
of an individual utility maximizer --
of an individual utility maximizer --
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资本主义是在个人效益
最大化的基础上建成的，
最大化的基础上建成的，
06:55
a selfish individual
who goes after what he or she wants.
who goes after what he or she wants.
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简而言之，人们自私地追寻自己想要的东西。
07:00
And only after they've
maximized their utility
maximized their utility
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只有当最他们的效益最大化了后，
07:03
do they then decide it's important
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他们才会去认真思考，
07:05
to provide support
to other social contracts.
to other social contracts.
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提供援助履行「社会契约」的重要性。
07:09
Of course, in this system
governments do tax,
governments do tax,
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当然，在这样一个系统里，政府也会赋税，
07:12
and they use part of their revenues
to fund social programs,
to fund social programs,
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然后再用部分的税收
来资助社会项目，
来资助社会项目，
07:16
recognizing that government's role
is not just regulation
is not just regulation
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为的是让人民知道，政府的存在
不是只有立法管理，
不是只有立法管理，
07:19
but also to be arbiter of social goods.
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同时也扮演了社会福利仲裁者的角色。
07:23
But nevertheless,
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但尽管如此，
07:24
this framework --
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这个框架结构--
07:26
this two-stage framework --
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这两个阶段的框架结构--
07:28
is the basis from which we must now start
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是我们现在必须开始思考
07:30
to think about how we can
improve the capitalist model.
improve the capitalist model.
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要如何改善资本主义模式的基础。
07:33
I would argue that there are
two sides to this challenge.
two sides to this challenge.
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为了实现这个蓝图，
我认为可以从两方面入手。
我认为可以从两方面入手。
07:37
First of all,
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首先，
07:38
we can draw on the right-wing policies
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我们可以借鉴右翼政策，
07:41
to see what could be beneficial for us
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去看看对我们有什么利益，
07:43
to think about how
we can improve capitalism.
we can improve capitalism.
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去思考如何改善资本主义。
特别要说的是，
07:46
In particular,
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07:47
right-leaning policies
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偏右派的政策
07:49
have tended to focus on things
like conditional transfers,
like conditional transfers,
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偏向于关注像「条件转移」这样的事，
07:52
where we pay and reward people
for doing the things
for doing the things
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所谓条件转移，指的就是
付钱并奖励人民做我们认为
付钱并奖励人民做我们认为
07:56
that we actually think
can help enhance economic growth.
can help enhance economic growth.
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可以帮助经济增长的事。
07:59
For example,
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举个例子，
08:00
sending children to school,
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我们可以出钱
08:02
parents could earn money for that,
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请父母送孩子去上学，
08:04
or getting their children
inoculated or immunized,
inoculated or immunized,
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或者出钱
请他们带孩子去打疫苗，
08:08
parents could get paid for doing that.
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08:10
Now, quite apart from the debate
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现在，不用去争论
08:12
on whether or not
we should be paying people
we should be paying people
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我们是否应该付钱
08:14
to do what we think they should do anyway,
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给父母亲做他们
本来就应该做的事，
本来就应该做的事，
08:17
the fact of the matter
is that pay for performance
is that pay for performance
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真正重要的事实是，
这种 付钱让人做事的效果
这种 付钱让人做事的效果
08:20
has actually yielded some positive results
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已经产生一些正向的结果，
08:23
in places like Mexico,
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像是在墨西哥这个地方、
08:24
in Brazil
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巴西
08:26
and also in pilot programs in New York.
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和其他在纽约的试点项目。
08:29
But there are also benefits
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同时，那些
08:31
and significant changes underway
on left-leaning policies.
on left-leaning policies.
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偏左派的做法也是有可取之处的。
08:35
Arguments that government should
expand its role and responsibility
expand its role and responsibility
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那些阐述政府需要扩张其职责和责任，
08:40
so that it's not so narrowly defined
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使其不再定义狭窄，
08:42
and that government should be
much more of an arbiter
much more of an arbiter
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而是更大意义上成为
08:44
of the factors of production
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生产因素仲裁者的言论
08:46
have become commonplace
with the success of China.
with the success of China.
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在中国已经取得了显著的成绩。
08:49
But also we've started to have debates
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但是同时我们也要开始争论
08:51
about how the role of the private sector
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有关于私人企业该扮演的角色
08:54
should move away
from just being a profit motive
from just being a profit motive
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应该跳脱只顾营利的动机，
08:56
and really be more engaged
in the delivery of social programs.
in the delivery of social programs.
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而真正参与到社会项目中去。
09:00
Things like the corporate
social responsibility programs,
social responsibility programs,
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像社会合作责任项目这样的活动，
09:03
albeit small in scale,
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尽管规模比较小，
09:05
are moving in that right direction.
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但也正在向正确的方向运作。
09:07
Of course, left-leaning policies
have also tended to blur the lines
have also tended to blur the lines
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当然，偏左派的政策有时
09:13
between government,
NGOs and private sector.
NGOs and private sector.
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也会把政府、非政府组织
和私人企业的界限模糊掉。
和私人企业的界限模糊掉。
09:16
Two very good examples of this
are the 19th-century United States,
are the 19th-century United States,
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这个概念有两个特别合适的例子，
一个是十九世纪的美国
一个是十九世纪的美国
09:20
when the infrastructure rollout
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推出的基础设施项目
09:22
was really about
public-private partnerships.
public-private partnerships.
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真的就是公私企业的合作伙伴关系，
09:25
More recently, of course,
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另一个例子更近一些，
09:27
the advent of the Internet
has also proven to the world
has also proven to the world
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因特网的出现也告诉了这个世界
09:30
that public and private can work together
for the betterment of society.
for the betterment of society.
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公众与私人是可以一起合作改善社会。
09:36
My fundamental message to you is this:
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我最想表达的信息其实是这个：
09:39
We cannot continue to try and solve
the world economic growth challenges
the world economic growth challenges
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我们不能藉由固执己见或
坚持不必要的意识形态来
坚持不必要的意识形态来
09:44
by being dogmatic
and being unnecessarily ideological.
and being unnecessarily ideological.
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继续尝试并解决世界经济成长的挑战。
09:49
In order to create sustainable,
long-term economic growth
long-term economic growth
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为了创造长期可持续的经济发展
09:53
and solve the challenges and social ills
that continue to plague the world today,
that continue to plague the world today,
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并且解决其他的猖狂的
危机和社会腐败问题，
危机和社会腐败问题，
09:57
we're going to have to be
more broad-minded
more broad-minded
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我们必须要有更包容的心胸
10:00
about what might work.
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了解什么是可行的。
10:02
Ultimately,
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最终，
10:03
we have to recognize
that ideology is the enemy of growth.
that ideology is the enemy of growth.
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我们必须要认清
意识形态是增长之敌。
意识形态是增长之敌。
10:08
Thank you.
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谢谢。
10:09
(Applause)
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（鼓掌）
10:15
Bruno Giussani: I want to ask
a couple of questions, Dambisa,
a couple of questions, Dambisa,
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主持人Bruno Giussani：
我想问你一些问题，丹碧莎,
我想问你一些问题，丹碧莎,
10:18
because one could react
to your last sentence
to your last sentence
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因为人们可以回应你的最后一句话，
10:20
by saying growth is also an ideology,
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说增长本身也是一种意识形态，
10:22
it's possibly the dominant
ideology of our times.
ideology of our times.
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它本身还可能是我们这一时代最主要的一个。
10:24
What do you say
to those who react that way?
to those who react that way?
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你想怎样回复这个观点呢？
10:26
DM: Well, I think that that's
completely legitimate,
completely legitimate,
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我得说， 这个观点是完全合理的，
10:29
and I think that we're already
having that discussion.
having that discussion.
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我认为我们已经讨论过，
10:31
There's a lot of work
going on around happiness
going on around happiness
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针对幸福这件事还有很多工作要做，
10:33
and other metrics being used
for measuring people's success
for measuring people's success
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而且，还有其他的测量方式
可以衡量人们的成功，
可以衡量人们的成功，
10:37
and improvements in living standards.
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以及生活水平的改善。
10:39
And so I think that we should be open
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所以，我认为我们应该敞开心胸，
10:41
to what could deliver improvements
in people's living standards
in people's living standards
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讨论做什么事可以增进人类的生活水平，
10:44
and continue to reduce
poverty around the world.
poverty around the world.
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并且持续减少世界上的贫穷现象。
10:46
BG: So you're basically pleading
for rehabilitating growth,
for rehabilitating growth,
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BG：所以，基本上，你是在为
「增长恢复」辩护，
「增长恢复」辩护，
10:49
but the only way for that happen
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但是唯一的
10:51
without compromising
the capacity of the earth,
the capacity of the earth,
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不威胁到地球的
10:53
to take us on a long journey,
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长期发展之路
10:54
is for economic growth
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就是让经济增长
10:56
somehow to decouple
from the underlying use of resources.
from the underlying use of resources.
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以某种方式消除对资源的过度利用。
10:59
Do you see that happening?
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你认为这会真的发生吗？
11:00
DM: Well, I think that I'm more optimistic
about human ability and ingenuity.
about human ability and ingenuity.
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我认为我对人类的能力与智慧
是持比较乐观的看法。
是持比较乐观的看法。
11:05
I think if we start to constrain ourselves
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我认为我们可以开始限制我们自己
11:07
using the finite, scarce
and depleting resources
and depleting resources
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对稀缺资源的滥用
11:10
that we know today,
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毕竟现如今大家
11:11
we could get quite negative
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都知道也都关心
11:13
and quite concerned
about the way the world is.
about the way the world is.
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滥用资源所产生的副作用。
11:15
However, we've seen the Club of Rome,
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但是， 我们已经看到罗马聚乐部
11:17
we've seen previous claims
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之前宣称
11:20
that the world would be
running out of resources,
running out of resources,
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世界最终还是会用尽资源，
11:22
and it's not to argue
that those things are not valid.
that those things are not valid.
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不用去争论这些事情不可能。
11:25
But I think, with ingenuity
we could see desalination,
we could see desalination,
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但我认为拥有才智我们可以淡化这一过程，
11:27
I think we could reinvest in energy,
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我人认为我们可以重新利用资源，
11:29
so that we can actually
get better outcomes.
get better outcomes.
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然后我们就会有更好的结果。
11:31
And so in that sense,
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所以这样一想，
11:33
I'm much more optimistic
about what humans can do.
about what humans can do.
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我对人类可以做的事还是挺乐观的。
11:35
BG: The thing that strikes me
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BG：我对你所说的
11:37
about your proposals
for rehabilitating growth
for rehabilitating growth
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恢复经济增长
11:40
and taking a different direction
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并且考虑其他方向所感到震惊的是
11:42
is that you're kind of suggesting
to fix capitalism with more capitalism --
to fix capitalism with more capitalism --
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你好像在说要用资本主义
去改变资本主义--
去改变资本主义--
11:47
with putting a price tag
on good behavior as incentive
on good behavior as incentive
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给善意的行为打个标价做为诱因，
11:50
or developing a bigger role
for business in social issues.
for business in social issues.
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或者就是让企业在社会问题中有更大的作用。
11:54
Is that what you're suggesting?
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这是你所认为的吗？
11:56
DM: I'm suggesting
we have to be open-minded.
we have to be open-minded.
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DM：我是认为我们必须心胸开阔。
11:58
I think it is absolutely the case
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有一点绝对的是
12:00
that traditional models of economic growth
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我认为传统经济增长的模式
12:03
are not working the way
we would like them to.
we would like them to.
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并没有像我们期待的那样有效。
12:05
And I think it's no accident
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我还认为
12:07
that today the largest
economy in the world, the United States,
economy in the world, the United States,
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如今世界最大经济体美国
12:11
has democracy,
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实行民主制、
12:12
liberal democracy,
as it's core political stance
as it's core political stance
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自由民主，作为它的核心政治立场，
12:15
and it has free market capitalism --
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美国还实行自由的市场资本主义--
12:17
to the extent that it is free --
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某種程度上，它是自由的--
12:19
free market capitalism
as its economic stance.
as its economic stance.
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自由的市场资本主义是它的经济立场。
12:21
The second largest economy is China.
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世界第二大经济体是中国。
12:23
It has deprioritized democracy
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它有民主非优先顺位发展的政治制度，
12:25
and it has state capitalism,
which is a completely different model.
which is a completely different model.
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而它的国家资本主义，
则是另一个完全不同的体质。
则是另一个完全不同的体质。
12:29
These two countries,
completely different political models
completely different political models
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这两个国家，是完全不同的政治模式，
12:31
and completely different economic models,
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经济模式上也是完全不一样，
12:33
and yet they have the same
income inequality number
income inequality number
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但是它们一样有收入不平等指数，
12:36
measured as a Gini coefficient.
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测量时用的是基尼系数。
12:37
I think those are the debates
we should have,
we should have,
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我认为这才是我们应有的辩论，
12:39
because it's not clear at all
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因为我们不清楚
12:42
what model we should be adopting,
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应采用什么样的体制，
12:43
and I think there needs to be
much more discourse
much more discourse
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我们也需要再讨论，
12:46
and much more humility
about what we know and what we don't know.
about what we know and what we don't know.
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以及更多的谦卑之心来面对
我们知道的和不知道的事物。
我们知道的和不知道的事物。
12:49
BG: One last question.
The COP21 is going on in Paris.
The COP21 is going on in Paris.
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BG：最后一个问题，
联合国气候变化大会即将在巴黎举行。
联合国气候变化大会即将在巴黎举行。
12:53
If you could send a tweet
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如果你可以
12:54
to all the heads of state
and heads of delegations there,
and heads of delegations there,
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给在那里的所有国家代表发条推特，
12:57
what would you say?
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你会说什么？
12:59
DM: Again, I would be very much
about being open-minded.
about being open-minded.
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DM：再次地，我很希望大家敞开心胸讨论。
13:02
As you're aware,
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就像你注意到的一样，
13:03
the issues around
the environmental concerns
the environmental concerns
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关于环境的问题
13:05
have been on the agenda many times now --
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逐渐被提上日程,
13:07
in Copenhagen,
'72 in Stockholm --
'72 in Stockholm --
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在哥本哈根，72年在斯德歌尔摩。
（举办的联合国人类环境大会--)
（举办的联合国人类环境大会--)
13:09
and we keep revisiting these issues
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我们会持续关注这些议题，
13:11
partly because there is not
a fundamental agreement,
a fundamental agreement,
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部分原因是，根本没有基本的共识协议，
13:15
in fact there's a schism
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事实上甚至
13:16
between what the developed
countries believe and want
countries believe and want
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在发达国家和
13:19
and what emerging market countries want.
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发展中国家的意见上有分歧。
13:21
Emerging market countries need
to continue to create economic growth
to continue to create economic growth
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发展中国家需要持续的经济增长
13:25
so that we don't have political
uncertainty in the those countries.
uncertainty in the those countries.
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如此，我们才不会有「政治不确定性」的国家。
13:28
Developed countries recognize
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发达国家认为
13:30
that they have a real,
important responsibility
important responsibility
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他们真的有责任
13:33
not only just to manage
their CO2 emissions
their CO2 emissions
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去管理二氧化碳的排放
13:35
and some of the degradation
that they're contributing to the world,
that they're contributing to the world,
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及一些他们对全世界所造成的破坏，
13:39
but also as trendsetters in R&D.
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并同时在研究和发展的事业中成为领头羊。
13:40
And so they have to come
to the table as well.
to the table as well.
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所以它们必须参加关于环境的讨论会。
13:43
But in essence, it cannot be a situation
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但是基本上，
13:45
where we start ascribing policies
to the emerging markets
to the emerging markets
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把所有政策归给发展中国家
13:49
without developed countries themselves
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而不涉及发达国家
13:51
also taking quite a swipe
at what they're doing
at what they're doing
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在他们自己的
13:54
both in demand and supply
in developed markets.
in developed markets.
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市场需求和供应中所做的事是不可能的。
13:56
BG: Dambisa, thank you for coming to TED.
DM: Thank you very much.
DM: Thank you very much.
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BG：丹碧莎，非常感谢你来到TED. DM:谢谢。
14:00
(Applause)
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（鼓掌）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Dambisa Moyo - Global economistDambisa Moyo is an international economist who analyzes the macroeconomy and global affairs.
Why you should listen
Dambisa Moyo's work examines the interplay between rapidly developing countries, international business, and the global economy -- while highlighting opportunities for investment. She has travelled to more than 60 countries over the past decade, studying the political, economic and financial workings of emerging economies, in particular the BRICs and the frontier economies in Asia, South America, Africa and the Middle East. Her latest book, Winner Take All: China’s Race for Resources and What It Means for the World, looks at how commodities markets influence much more than the global economy -- and examines the possible consequences of China's unprecedented rush for commodities such as oil, minerals, water, and food, including the looming specter of commodity-driven conflict.
She is the author of the brilliantly argued Dead Aid: Why Aid Is Not Working and How There Is a Better Way for Africa and How the West Was Lost: Fifty Years of Economic Folly and the Stark Choices Ahead. Previously, she was an economist at Goldman Sachs, where she worked for nearly a decade, and was a consultant to the World Bank in Washington.
Dambisa Moyo | Speaker | TED.com