TEDWomen 2018
Katharine Hayhoe: The most important thing you can do to fight climate change: talk about it
凯瑟琳·海霍: 和气候变化斗争的最重要的方法：讨论它
Filmed:
Readability: 4
2,790,388 views
你怎么和不相信气候变化的人对话？不是重复我们已经讨论过多年的相同的数据和事实，气候科学家凯瑟琳·海霍认为。在这个既激励又实际的演讲中，海霍显示了进行一个实在的讨论的关键，是在家庭，社区，和宗教这些共同价值上和他人产生共鸣 -- 使他人意识到他们已经在乎气候变化。“我们不能因为绝望而放弃，” 她说 “我们必须走出去，积极去寻找我们需要的希望，而那个希望会激励我们去行动。
那个希望就从我们今天的对话开始。”
Katharine Hayhoe - Climate scientist
Katharine Hayhoe studies what climate change means to us in the places where we live. Full bio
Katharine Hayhoe studies what climate change means to us in the places where we live. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
It was my first year
as an atmospheric science professor
as an atmospheric science professor
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那是我在德克萨斯科技大学
00:16
at Texas Tech University.
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当大气科学教授的第一年。
00:18
We had just moved to Lubbock, Texas,
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我们刚搬到德克萨斯
的卢博克市。
的卢博克市。
00:20
which had recently been named
the second most conservative city
the second most conservative city
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这个镇最近被评为全美国
00:24
in the entire United States.
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第二保守的镇。
00:26
A colleague asked me to guest teach
his undergraduate geology class.
his undergraduate geology class.
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一个同事请我客串教他的
地质学的本科课程。
地质学的本科课程。
00:30
I said, "Sure."
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我说：“没问题”。
00:32
But when I showed up,
the lecture hall was cavernous and dark.
the lecture hall was cavernous and dark.
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但是当我第一次去上课的时候，整个
教室显得空荡荡的和黑黢黢的。
教室显得空荡荡的和黑黢黢的。
00:36
As I tracked the history
of the carbon cycle
of the carbon cycle
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在我从地质时间到现在
00:38
through geologic time to present day,
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追述碳循环的历史时，
00:41
most of the students were slumped over,
dozing or looking at their phones.
dozing or looking at their phones.
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大部分学生都趴在桌子上，
或者打瞌睡，或者看手机。
或者打瞌睡，或者看手机。
00:46
I ended my talk with a hopeful request
for any questions.
for any questions.
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在我结束时，我报着一线希望
问大家有没有什么问题。
问大家有没有什么问题。
00:49
And one hand shot up right away.
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马上有双手举了起来。
00:53
I looked encouraging, he stood up,
and in a loud voice, he said,
and in a loud voice, he said,
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我投给他鼓励的眼光，
他站起来，大声问我，
他站起来，大声问我，
00:57
"You're a democrat, aren't you?"
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“你是民主党的，不是吗？”
00:59
(Laughter)
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（大笑）
01:02
"No," I said, "I'm Canadian."
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“不”，我说，“我是加拿大人。”
01:04
(Laughter)
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（大笑）
01:06
(Applause)
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（鼓掌）
01:13
That was my baptism by fire
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这是我的一个火的洗礼，
01:15
into what has now become a sad
fact of life here in the United States
fact of life here in the United States
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让我进入到美国一个
悲哀的现实中，
悲哀的现实中，
01:19
and increasingly across Canada as well.
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这一现实也逐渐跨过
边境弥漫到加拿大。
边境弥漫到加拿大。
01:22
The fact that the number one predictor
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这个现实就是，当我们预测，
01:24
of whether we agree
that climate is changing,
that climate is changing,
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我们能否同意气候在变化，
01:27
humans are responsible
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而人类直接负责，
01:28
and the impacts are increasingly
serious and even dangerous,
serious and even dangerous,
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同时这个影响越来
越严重和危险时，
越严重和危险时，
01:32
has nothing to do with how much we know
about science or even how smart we are
about science or even how smart we are
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不在于我们对科学了解多少，
或甚至是我们有多聪明，
或甚至是我们有多聪明，
01:36
but simply where we fall
on the political spectrum.
on the political spectrum.
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而简单的是第一
我们属于什么党派。
我们属于什么党派。
01:41
Does the thermometer give us
a different answer
a different answer
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难道温度计会因为我们
是自由派或保守派
是自由派或保守派
01:43
depending on if we're liberal
or conservative?
or conservative?
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而给出不同的答案吗？
01:46
Of course not.
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当然不会。
01:48
But if that thermometer tells us
that the planet is warming,
that the planet is warming,
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如果温度计告诉
我们地球在变暖，
我们地球在变暖，
01:52
that humans are responsible
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人类对此负有责任，
01:55
and that to fix this thing,
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而要纠正这个问题，
01:56
we have to wean ourselves off
fossil fuels as soon as possible --
fossil fuels as soon as possible --
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我们必须尽快减少
使用化石燃料 --
使用化石燃料 --
02:01
well, some people would rather
cut off their arm
cut off their arm
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那有些人会宁肯
砍掉他们的胳膊，
砍掉他们的胳膊，
02:04
than give the government
any further excuse
any further excuse
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也不愿给政府任何理由
02:06
to disrupt their comfortable lives
and tell them what to do.
and tell them what to do.
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来告诉他们该怎么做，来打断
他们舒适的生活方式。
他们舒适的生活方式。
02:10
But saying, "Yes, it's a real problem,
but I don't want to fix it,"
but I don't want to fix it,"
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但是如果我们说：“是的，那是一个
真正的问题，但是我不想纠正它，”
真正的问题，但是我不想纠正它，”
02:14
that makes us the bad guy,
and nobody wants to be the bad guy.
and nobody wants to be the bad guy.
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那我们就变成了坏人，
而没有人想做坏人。
而没有人想做坏人。
02:18
So instead, we use arguments like,
"It's just a natural cycle."
"It's just a natural cycle."
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所以我们会找各种各样的借口，
比如：“那只是一个自然的循环。”
比如：“那只是一个自然的循环。”
02:23
"It's the sun."
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“那是太阳造成的。”
02:24
Or my favorite,
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还有我最喜欢的，
02:25
"Those climate scientists
are just in it for the money."
are just in it for the money."
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“这些气候专家只是
想从这里面赚钱。”
想从这里面赚钱。”
02:28
(Laughter)
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（大笑）
02:30
I get that at least once a week.
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我至少每个星期会听到一次。
02:34
But these are just
sciencey-sounding smoke screens,
sciencey-sounding smoke screens,
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但是这些只是看起来
很科学的烟幕弹，
很科学的烟幕弹，
02:38
that are designed to hide
the real reason for our objections,
the real reason for our objections,
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它们被用来隐藏我们
反对的真实原因，
反对的真实原因，
02:41
which have nothing to do with the science
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那和科学没有任何关系，
02:43
and everything to do
with our ideology and our identity.
with our ideology and our identity.
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而和我们的意识形态和
身份认证息息相关。
身份认证息息相关。
02:49
So when we turn on the TV these days,
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所以现在当我们打开电视时，
02:51
it seems like pundit X is saying,
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我们可能看到评论员X在说：
02:53
"It's cold outside.
Where is global warming now?"
Where is global warming now?"
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“外面这么冷，哪里有全球变暖？”
02:56
And politician Y is saying,
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以及政治家Y在说：
02:58
"For every scientist
who says this thing is real,
who says this thing is real,
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“对每一个说这是真的科学家，
03:00
I can find one who says it isn't."
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我都能找到另一个说这不是真的。”
03:02
So it's no surprise that sometimes we feel
like everybody is saying these myths.
like everybody is saying these myths.
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所以并不奇怪有时候我们
感觉大家都是在这么说。
感觉大家都是在这么说。
03:07
But when we look at the data --
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但是当我们看相关数据时 --
03:09
and the Yale Program
on Climate [Change] Communication
on Climate [Change] Communication
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比如耶鲁“气候（变化）交流项目”
03:12
has done public opinion polling across
the country now for a number of years --
the country now for a number of years --
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在全国范围做了几年的
大众观点抽样调查 --
大众观点抽样调查 --
03:16
the data shows that actually 70 percent
of people in the United States agree
of people in the United States agree
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数据显示美国70%的人认为
03:20
that the climate is changing.
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气候正在发生变化。
03:22
And 70 percent also agree
that it will harm plants and animals,
that it will harm plants and animals,
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而且70%的人同意这
会伤害植物和动物，
会伤害植物和动物，
03:25
and it will harm future generations.
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会伤害人类的后代。
03:28
But then when we dig down a bit deeper,
the rubber starts to hit the road.
the rubber starts to hit the road.
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但当我们进一步分析这些
数据时，实际问题就来了。
数据时，实际问题就来了。
03:33
Only about 60 percent of people think it
will affect people in the United States.
will affect people in the United States.
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只有60%的人认为
这会影响美国人。
这会影响美国人。
03:39
Only 40 percent of people
think it will affect us personally.
think it will affect us personally.
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只有40%的人认为
这会影响到自己。
这会影响到自己。
03:44
And then when you ask people,
"Do you ever talk about this?"
"Do you ever talk about this?"
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而当你问他们：“你们
谈论这个话题吗？”
谈论这个话题吗？”
03:48
two-thirds of people in the entire
United States say, "Never."
United States say, "Never."
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全美国三分之二的人的
回答是，“从不。”
回答是，“从不。”
03:54
And even worse, when you say,
"Do you hear the media talk about this?"
"Do you hear the media talk about this?"
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更糟糕的是，当你问“你听到过
媒体谈论这个话题吗？”
媒体谈论这个话题吗？”
03:58
Over three-quarters of people say no.
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四分之三的人说没有。
04:02
So it's a vicious cycle.
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所以这是一个恶性的循环。
04:05
The planet warms.
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地球变暖，
04:07
Heat waves get stronger.
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高温气候越来越剧烈，
04:08
Heavy precipitation gets more frequent.
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大雨越来越频繁，
04:10
Hurricanes get more intense.
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飓风越来越强烈，
04:12
Scientists release yet another
doom-filled report.
doom-filled report.
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科学家们发布一个又
一个黯淡前景的报告，
一个黯淡前景的报告，
04:16
Politicians push back even more strongly,
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而政治家们则更强烈地反驳，
04:19
repeating the same
sciencey-sounding myths.
sciencey-sounding myths.
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同样的听起来很科学的
谬论不断地被重复。
谬论不断地被重复。
04:23
What can we do to break
this vicious cycle?
this vicious cycle?
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我们怎样才能打破
这个恶性循环呢？
这个恶性循环呢？
04:27
The number one thing we can do
is the exact thing that we're not doing:
is the exact thing that we're not doing:
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第一可以做的事情就是
我们现在正在做的：
我们现在正在做的：
04:32
talk about it.
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讨论这个问题。
04:34
But you might say, "I'm not a scientist.
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但是你也许会说：
“我不是科学家，
“我不是科学家，
04:36
How am I supposed to talk
about radiative forcing
about radiative forcing
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我怎么有办法讨论辐射作用量,
04:39
or cloud parametrization
in climate models?"
in climate models?"
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或者气候模型中的云参数呢？”
04:42
We don't need to be talking
about more science;
about more science;
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我们不需要讨论更多的科学；
04:45
we've been talking about the science
for over 150 years.
for over 150 years.
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我们已经讨论了150年的科学了。
04:48
Did you know that it's been
150 years or more since the 1850s,
150 years or more since the 1850s,
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你知道吗，自从150年前
或者1850年左右，
或者1850年左右，
04:54
when climate scientists first discovered
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气候科学家首先发现，
04:56
that digging up and burning
coal and gas and oil
coal and gas and oil
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挖掘并燃烧煤，气和油
04:59
is producing heat-trapping gases
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会产生聚热气体，
05:01
that is wrapping an extra blanket
around the planet?
around the planet?
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从而给地球包裹了额外一层毛毯？
05:04
That's how long we've known.
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我们已经知道了这么长时间。
05:05
It's been 50 years since scientists
first formally warned a US president
first formally warned a US president
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50年前科学家就正式
地警告了一位美国总统
地警告了一位美国总统
05:10
of the dangers of a changing climate,
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气候变化的危险性，
05:11
and that president was Lyndon B. Johnson.
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那个总统就是林登-约翰逊。
05:15
And what's more,
the social science has taught us
the social science has taught us
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更进一步的是，
社会科学告诉我们，
社会科学告诉我们，
05:18
that if people have built their identity
on rejecting a certain set of facts,
on rejecting a certain set of facts,
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如果人们把自己的身份验证
建立在拒绝某些事实上，
建立在拒绝某些事实上，
05:24
then arguing over those facts
is a personal attack.
is a personal attack.
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那么辩论这些事实就
变成了一个个人攻击。
变成了一个个人攻击。
05:29
It causes them to dig in deeper,
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这使得他们越挖越深，
05:31
and it digs a trench,
rather than building a bridge.
rather than building a bridge.
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最后挖出一条壕沟，
而不是修建一座桥梁。
而不是修建一座桥梁。
05:36
So if we aren't supposed to talk
about more science,
about more science,
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所以说如果我们
不应该讨论更多的科学，
不应该讨论更多的科学，
05:38
or if we don't need to talk
about more science,
about more science,
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或者说我们不需要讨论更多的科学，
05:41
then what should we be talking about?
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那我们应该讨论什么呢？
05:43
The most important thing to do is,
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我们应该要做的最重要的事情，
05:44
instead of starting up with your head,
with all the data and facts in our head,
with all the data and facts in our head,
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不是一开始就从我们的
大脑里的数据和事实开始，
大脑里的数据和事实开始，
05:48
to start from the heart,
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而是从我们的心开始，
05:50
to start by talking about
why it matters to us,
why it matters to us,
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开始讨论为什么这对我们很重要，
05:55
to begin with genuinely shared values.
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从大家都真心共享的价值观开始。
05:59
Are we both parents?
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我们都是父母吗？
06:01
Do we live in the same community?
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我们都住在同样的社区吗？
06:03
Do we enjoy the same outdoor activities:
hiking, biking, fishing, even hunting?
hiking, biking, fishing, even hunting?
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我们都喜欢同样的室外活动，
如徒步，骑车，钓鱼，甚至捕猎吗？
如徒步，骑车，钓鱼，甚至捕猎吗？
06:10
Do we care about the economy
or national security?
or national security?
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我们在乎经济或国家安全吗？
06:13
For me, one of the most foundational ways
I found to connect with people
I found to connect with people
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对我来说，我找到的最
基础的和他人连接的途径，
基础的和他人连接的途径，
06:17
is through my faith.
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就是通过我的信仰。
06:18
As a Christian, I believe that God created
this incredible planet that we live on
this incredible planet that we live on
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作为一个基督徒，我相信上帝创造了
这个不可思议的地球让我们居住，
这个不可思议的地球让我们居住，
06:22
and gave us responsibility
over every living thing on it.
over every living thing on it.
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并赋于我们照顾这
上面每个生命的责任。
上面每个生命的责任。
06:27
And I furthermore believe
that we are to care for and love
that we are to care for and love
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并且我相信我们需要照顾和爱护
06:30
the least fortunate among us,
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我们当中最不幸的人群。
06:31
those who are already suffering
the impacts of poverty,
the impacts of poverty,
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这些人已经被贫穷，
06:34
hunger, disease and more.
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饥饿，疾病所困扰。
06:37
If you don't know what
the values are that someone has,
the values are that someone has,
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如果你不知道某些人的价值观，
06:40
have a conversation, get to know them,
figure out what makes them tick.
figure out what makes them tick.
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那就和他们聊一聊，更多地了解他们
，看哪些方面他们比较在乎。
，看哪些方面他们比较在乎。
06:45
And then once we have,
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一旦了解后，
06:47
all we have to do is connect the dots
between the values they already have
between the values they already have
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我们只需要把他们已有的
价值观中一些点连接起来，
价值观中一些点连接起来，
06:52
and why they would care
about a changing climate.
about a changing climate.
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并解释为什么他们会在乎气候变化。
06:55
I truly believe, after thousands
of conversations that I've had
of conversations that I've had
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在我过去十多年几千次的对话后，
06:59
over the past decade and more,
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我真实地相信，
07:01
that just about every single
person in the world
person in the world
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在这个世界上的每个人
07:03
already has the values they need
to care about a changing climate.
to care about a changing climate.
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都已经有了在乎气候
变化的某些价值观。
变化的某些价值观。
07:06
They just haven't connected the dots.
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他们只是还没有把
那些点连接起来。
那些点连接起来。
07:09
And that's what we can do
through our conversation with them.
through our conversation with them.
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而那是我们可以通过
和他们对话做到的。
和他们对话做到的。
07:13
The only reason why I care
about a changing climate
about a changing climate
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我个人在乎气候
变化的唯一原因，
变化的唯一原因，
07:16
is because of who I already am.
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就是因为我是
一个什么样的人。
一个什么样的人。
07:18
I'm a mother, so I care
about the future of my child.
about the future of my child.
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我是一个母亲，所以我
关心我的孩子的前途。
关心我的孩子的前途。
07:21
I live in West Texas,
where water is already scarce,
where water is already scarce,
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我住在德克萨斯州的西部，
这里的水已经非常缺乏，
这里的水已经非常缺乏，
07:24
and climate change is impacting
the availability of that water.
the availability of that water.
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而气候变化会影响水的多少。
07:28
I'm a Christian, I care
about a changing climate
about a changing climate
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作为一个基督徒，
我关心气候变化，
我关心气候变化，
07:31
because it is, as the military calls it,
a "threat multiplier."
a "threat multiplier."
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因为它就像军队里说的，
是一个“威胁扩大器”。
是一个“威胁扩大器”。
07:35
It takes those issues,
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它把各种各样的社会问题，
07:36
like poverty and hunger and disease
and lack of access to clean water
and lack of access to clean water
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比如贫困，饥饿，疾病，
以及缺乏干净的水，
以及缺乏干净的水，
07:40
and even political crises
that lead to refugee crises --
that lead to refugee crises --
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甚至导致难民危机
的政治危机 --
的政治危机 --
07:44
it takes all of these issues
and it exacerbates them,
and it exacerbates them,
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它把所有这些问题进一步加重，
07:46
it makes them worse.
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让它们变得更加糟糕。
07:49
I'm not a Rotarian.
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我不是“扶轮社”的成员，
07:50
But when I gave my first talk
at a Rotary Club,
at a Rotary Club,
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但当我第一次给一个
“扶轮社”俱乐部演讲时，
“扶轮社”俱乐部演讲时，
07:53
I walked in and they had this giant banner
that had the Four-Way Test on it.
that had the Four-Way Test on it.
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一进门我就看到他们挂着
一个巨大的“四通试验”的横幅。
一个巨大的“四通试验”的横幅。
07:58
Is it the truth?
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它是事实吗？
08:00
Absolutely.
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当然是。
08:01
Is it fair?
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它公平吗？
08:02
Heck, no, that's why I care
most about climate change,
most about climate change,
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当然不公平。所以我在乎气候变化，
08:05
because it is absolutely unfair.
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因为它绝对不公平。
08:07
Those who have contributed
the least to the problem
the least to the problem
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那些最少带来气候变化的人群，
08:09
are bearing the brunt of the impacts.
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却是受害最深的。
08:11
It went on to ask:
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“四通试验”接着问：
08:12
Would it be beneficial to all,
would it build goodwill?
would it build goodwill?
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它对所有人都有利吗？
它会建立友善吗？
它会建立友善吗？
08:15
Well, to fix it certainly would.
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如果我们纠正了它那当然会。
08:16
So I took my talk, and I reorganized it
into the Four-Way Test,
into the Four-Way Test,
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所以我把我的演讲按照
“四通试验”重新做了安排，
“四通试验”重新做了安排，
08:21
and then I gave it to this group
of conservative businesspeople
of conservative businesspeople
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然后我给这些保守的
商业人士做了这个演讲，
商业人士做了这个演讲，
08:24
in West Texas.
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那是在德克萨斯州西部。
08:26
(Laughter)
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（大笑）
08:27
And I will never forget at the end,
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我永远不能忘记的是在结束时，
08:29
a local bank owner came up to me
with the most bemused look on his face.
with the most bemused look on his face.
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一个当地的银行持有人带着
极为困惑的神情走到我面前。
极为困惑的神情走到我面前。
08:33
And he said, "You know, I wasn't sure
about this whole global warming thing,
about this whole global warming thing,
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然后他说：“你知道，我对
这个全球变暖的事情并不确定，
这个全球变暖的事情并不确定，
08:37
but it passed the Four-Way Test."
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但是它的确通过了“四通试验”。”
08:39
(Laughter)
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（大笑）
08:42
(Applause)
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（鼓掌）
08:50
These values, though --
they have to be genuine.
they have to be genuine.
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当然，这些价值观必须真诚。
08:53
I was giving a talk at a Christian college
a number of years ago,
a number of years ago,
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几年前我在一个
基督教学院演讲。
基督教学院演讲。
08:56
and after my talk, a fellow scientist
came up and he said,
came up and he said,
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结束后一个同道科学家
走过来对我说：
走过来对我说：
08:59
"I need some help.
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“我需要一些帮助。
09:01
I've been really trying hard
to get my foot in the door
to get my foot in the door
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我在我们当地的一些教会
09:04
with our local churches,
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做了很大的努力，
09:06
but I can't seem to get any traction.
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但是没有什么效果。
09:08
I want to talk to them
about why climate change matters."
about why climate change matters."
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我很希望跟他们谈谈为什么
气候变化和他们有关系。”
气候变化和他们有关系。”
09:11
So I said, "Well, the best thing to do
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所以我说：“好，那最好的做法就是
09:12
is to start with the denomination
that you're part of,
that you're part of,
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从你所属的教派开始。
09:15
because you share the most values
with those people.
with those people.
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因为你和他们有最多共同的价值观。
09:18
What type of church do you attend?"
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你去什么类型的教会？”
09:20
"Oh, I don't attend any church,
I'm an atheist," he said.
I'm an atheist," he said.
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“哦，我不去任何教会，
我是一个无神论者。” 他说。
我是一个无神论者。” 他说。
09:23
(Laughter)
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（大笑）
09:24
I said, "Well, in that case,
starting with a faith community
starting with a faith community
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我说：“哦，那样的话，
从一个宗教团体开始
从一个宗教团体开始
09:27
is probably not the best idea.
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可能不是一个好主意。
09:29
Let's talk about what you do enjoy doing,
what you are involved in."
what you are involved in."
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我们来谈谈你喜欢做什么，
平时参与了什么。”
平时参与了什么。”
09:32
And we were able to identify
a community group
a community group
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由此我们找到了一个
他参加的社区组织，
他参加的社区组织，
09:35
that he was part of,
that he could start with.
that he could start with.
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这样他可以从那里开始。
09:37
The bottom line is, we don't have to be
a liberal tree hugger
a liberal tree hugger
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最根本的是，我们不需要
因为在乎气候变化
因为在乎气候变化
09:40
to care about a changing climate.
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而成为一个极端的自由派。
09:42
All we have to be is a human
living on this planet.
living on this planet.
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只要我们是这个地球上
的一个人就可以了。
的一个人就可以了。
09:46
Because no matter where we live,
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因为不管我们住在哪里，
09:49
climate change is already
affecting us today.
affecting us today.
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气候变化今天都已经影响到我们。
09:54
If we live along the coasts,
191
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如果我们住在海边，
09:56
in many places, we're already seeing
"sunny-day flooding."
"sunny-day flooding."
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3932
在很多地方我们已经
看到“太阳天的洪水”。
看到“太阳天的洪水”。
10:02
If we live in western North America,
193
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2284
如果我们住在北美洲，
10:04
we're seeing much greater area
being burned by wildfires.
being burned by wildfires.
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3445
我们已经看到越来越多
的地方被野火烧毁。
的地方被野火烧毁。
10:09
If we live in many coastal locations,
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如果我们住在很多靠海的地区，
10:11
from the Gulf of Mexico
to the South Pacific,
to the South Pacific,
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从墨西哥湾到南太平洋，
10:13
we are seeing stronger hurricanes,
typhoons and cyclones,
typhoons and cyclones,
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我们看到因为变暖的海洋
10:17
powered by a warming ocean.
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而更强的飓风，台风，和旋风。
10:19
If we live in Texas
or if we live in Syria,
or if we live in Syria,
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如果我们住在德克萨斯
州，甚至是叙利亚，
州，甚至是叙利亚，
10:22
we're seeing climate change
supersize our droughts,
supersize our droughts,
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我们已经看到气候变化
让干旱范围越来越大，
让干旱范围越来越大，
10:25
making them more frequent and more severe.
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越来越频繁和严重。
10:28
Wherever we live, we're already
being affected by a changing climate.
being affected by a changing climate.
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不管我们住在哪里，我们
都已经受到气候变化影响。
都已经受到气候变化影响。
10:31
So you might say, "OK, that's good.
We can talk impacts.
We can talk impacts.
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所以你也许会说：“好吧，
你说的很好。我们可以谈论后果，
你说的很好。我们可以谈论后果，
10:34
We can scare the pants off people,
because this thing is serious."
because this thing is serious."
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我们可以把大家都吓死，
因为这个事情非常严重。”
因为这个事情非常严重。”
10:38
And it is, believe me.
I'm a scientist, I know.
I'm a scientist, I know.
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相信我，的确是这样。
我是一个科学家，我知道。
我是一个科学家，我知道。
10:40
(Laughter)
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（大笑）
10:42
But fear is not
what is going to motivate us
what is going to motivate us
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但是恐惧不会激励我们
10:45
for the long-term, sustained change
that we need to fix this thing.
that we need to fix this thing.
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3798
做长时期的，可持续的变化，
来纠正这个问题。
来纠正这个问题。
10:50
Fear is designed to help us
run away from the bear.
run away from the bear.
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3381
恐惧只会让我们从熊的旁边跑开，
10:54
Or just run faster
than the person beside us.
than the person beside us.
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或者仅仅是比我们
旁边的人跑得快一些。
旁边的人跑得快一些。
10:56
(Laughter)
211
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（大笑）
10:59
What we need to fix this thing
is rational hope.
is rational hope.
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而我们需要纠正这个问题
的途径是合理的希望。
的途径是合理的希望。
11:04
Yes, we absolutely do need
to recognize what's at stake.
to recognize what's at stake.
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是的，我们完全需要认识
到问题的严重性，
到问题的严重性，
11:08
Of course we do.
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当然需要。
11:10
But we need a vision of a better future --
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3553
但是我们需要一个
更好未来的愿景 --
更好未来的愿景 --
11:15
a future with abundant energy,
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这个未来有无尽的能源，
11:17
with a stable economy,
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1849
稳定的经济，
11:19
with resources available to all,
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所有人都有资源，
11:22
where our lives are not worse
but better than they are today.
but better than they are today.
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我们的生活比今天
更好而不是更糟。
更好而不是更糟。
11:27
There are solutions.
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解决的方案是存在的。
11:30
And that's why the second important
thing that we have to talk about
thing that we have to talk about
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所以我们必须讨论的第二
重要的事情是解决方案 --
重要的事情是解决方案 --
11:34
is solutions -- practical, viable,
accessible, attractive solutions.
accessible, attractive solutions.
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实际的，可行的，
容易理解的，吸引人的方案。
容易理解的，吸引人的方案。
11:41
Like what?
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1334
比如说呢？
11:42
Well, there's no
silver bullet, as they say,
silver bullet, as they say,
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2143
好吧，就像他们说的，
没有什么“银弹”（即捷径），
没有什么“银弹”（即捷径），
11:44
but there's plenty of silver buckshot.
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2444
但是大型铅弹还是有很多的。
11:47
(Laughter)
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（大笑）
11:50
There's simple solutions
that save us money
that save us money
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2103
有一些简单的方案
可以帮我们节省钱，
可以帮我们节省钱，
11:52
and reduce our carbon footprint
at the same time.
at the same time.
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同时减低我们的碳排放量。
11:55
Yes, light bulbs.
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1412
是的，就是灯泡。
11:57
I love my plug-in car.
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我喜欢我的充电车。
11:59
I'd like some solar shingles.
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1933
我想有太阳能屋顶。
12:02
But imagine if every home
came with a switch beside the front door,
came with a switch beside the front door,
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但是设想一下，如果
每家门口都有一个开关，
每家门口都有一个开关，
12:07
that when you left the house, you could
turn off everything except your fridge.
turn off everything except your fridge.
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当你出门时，你可以关掉
除了冰箱以外的所有电器。
除了冰箱以外的所有电器。
12:10
And maybe the DVR.
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或许还有DVR（数字录像机）.
12:12
(Laughter)
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（大笑）
12:13
Lifestyle choices: eating local,
eating lower down the food chain
eating lower down the food chain
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5502
生活习惯的改变：消费本地产品，
食用食物链较底端的食物，
食用食物链较底端的食物，
12:19
and reducing food waste,
which at the global scale,
which at the global scale,
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在全球范围减少食物浪费，
12:22
is one of the most important things
that we can do to fix this problem.
that we can do to fix this problem.
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3991
这是纠正这个问题的
最重要的方法之一。
最重要的方法之一。
12:26
I'm a climate scientist,
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1648
我是一个气候科学家，
12:28
so the irony of traveling around
to talk to people about a changing climate
to talk to people about a changing climate
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4178
所以我完全能意识到
12:32
is not lost on me.
241
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飞行到世界各地做气候
变化演讲的讽刺意味。
变化演讲的讽刺意味。
12:33
(Laughter)
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（大笑）
12:35
The biggest part of my personal
carbon footprint is my travel.
carbon footprint is my travel.
243
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3466
我最大的碳排放量就是旅行。
12:39
And that's why I carefully
collect my invitations.
collect my invitations.
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3684
所以我会仔细地把
给我的邀请集中起来。
给我的邀请集中起来。
12:43
I usually don't go anywhere
unless I have a critical mass
unless I have a critical mass
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我通常只去那些
12:46
of invitations in one place --
246
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有足够多邀请的地方 --
12:48
anywhere from three to four
247
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1355
通常在一个地方有3到4个演讲，
12:49
to sometimes even as many as
10 or 15 talks in a given place --
10 or 15 talks in a given place --
248
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3733
有时甚至10或15个演讲 --
12:53
so I can minimize the impact
of my carbon footprint
of my carbon footprint
249
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2794
这样我可以尽可能地
12:55
as much as possible.
250
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减少我的碳排放量。
12:57
And I've transitioned nearly
three-quarters of the talks I give
three-quarters of the talks I give
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3388
另外我把我几乎四分之三的演讲
13:00
to video.
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1150
都做成了录像。
13:02
Often, people will say,
"Well, we've never done that before."
"Well, we've never done that before."
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3134
人们经常会说：“可是，
我们从来没有那样做过。”
我们从来没有那样做过。”
13:05
But I say, "Well, let's give it a try,
I think it could work."
I think it could work."
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但我会说：“好吧，那我们来
试一试吧，我觉得那可能就有效果。”
试一试吧，我觉得那可能就有效果。”
13:10
Most of all, though,
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不过最重要的是，
13:12
we need to talk about what's already
happening today around the world
happening today around the world
256
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4341
我们需要讨论现在在世界各地已经发生的，
13:16
and what could happen in the future.
257
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以及未来会发生的。
13:18
Now, I live in Texas,
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我现在住在德克萨斯州，
13:20
and Texas has the highest carbon emissions
of any state in the United States.
of any state in the United States.
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德克萨斯州的碳
排放量为全美最高。
排放量为全美最高。
13:24
You might say, "Well,
what can you talk about in Texas?"
what can you talk about in Texas?"
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你也许会说：“好吧，
那德克萨斯有什么可说的呢？”
那德克萨斯有什么可说的呢？”
13:27
The answer is: a lot.
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答案是：很多。
13:30
Did you know that in Texas
there's over 25,000 jobs
there's over 25,000 jobs
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你知道吗？德克萨斯
有2万5千多的工作
有2万5千多的工作
13:35
in the wind energy industry?
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是在风能行业。
13:37
We are almost up to 20 percent
of our electricity
of our electricity
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我们从干净和可更新的
能源得到的发电量
能源得到的发电量
13:40
from clean, renewable sources,
most of that wind,
most of that wind,
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已经增加了20%。
13:42
though solar is growing quickly.
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大部分是风能，
虽然太阳能增长迅速。
虽然太阳能增长迅速。
13:44
The largest army base
in the United States, Fort Hood,
in the United States, Fort Hood,
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全美最大的军事基地胡德堡
13:47
is, of course, in Texas.
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当然是在德克萨斯。
13:50
And they've been powered
by wind and solar energy now,
by wind and solar energy now,
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他们现在用的就是
风能和太阳能，
风能和太阳能，
13:53
because it's saving taxpayers
over 150 million dollars.
over 150 million dollars.
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这给纳税人节省了
1亿5千万美元以上。
1亿5千万美元以上。
13:58
Yes.
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是的。
（鼓掌）
13:59
(Applause)
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14:04
What about those who don't have
the resources that we have?
the resources that we have?
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那么那些没有我们
这些资源的地方呢？
这些资源的地方呢？
14:07
In sub-Saharan Africa,
there are hundreds of millions of people
there are hundreds of millions of people
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非洲撒哈拉沙漠
以南地区有几亿人
以南地区有几亿人
14:10
who don't have access to any type
of energy except kerosine,
of energy except kerosine,
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没有除了煤油以外的任何能源，
14:13
and it's very expensive.
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而煤油非常昂贵。
14:15
Around the entire world,
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现在全世界增长最快的能源
14:17
the fastest-growing type
of new energy today is solar.
of new energy today is solar.
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是太阳能。
14:22
And they have plenty of solar.
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而他们有充足的太阳能。
14:26
So social impact investors,
nonprofits, even corporations
nonprofits, even corporations
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所以有些有社会责任感的投资人，
非盈利机构，甚至私人公司
非盈利机构，甚至私人公司
14:30
are going in and using innovative
new microfinancing schemes,
new microfinancing schemes,
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都到了那里，通过富有
创意的小额融资计划，
创意的小额融资计划，
14:34
like, pay-as-you-go solar,
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比如现买现付，
14:36
so that people can buy
the power they need in increments,
the power they need in increments,
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而使得人们可以增量购买能源，
14:39
sometimes even on their cell phone.
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有时甚至直接用手机。
14:41
One company, Azuri, has distributed
tens of thousands of units
tens of thousands of units
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有一个叫做Azuri的公司在
从卢旺达到乌干达的
从卢旺达到乌干达的
14:45
across 11 countries,
from Rwanda to Uganda.
from Rwanda to Uganda.
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11国家分发了几万单元的能源。
14:48
They estimate that they've powered
over 30 million hours of electricity
over 30 million hours of electricity
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他们的估计是他们提供了
3千万小时以上的电能，
3千万小时以上的电能，
14:52
and over 10 million hours
of cell phone charging.
of cell phone charging.
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以及1千万小时以上的手机充电。
14:56
What about the giant growing
economies of China and India?
economies of China and India?
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那么还有像中国和印度
那样的庞大经济体呢？
那样的庞大经济体呢？
15:01
Well, climate impacts might seem
a little further down the road,
a little further down the road,
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好吧，气候的影响可能
现在还不那么清晰，
现在还不那么清晰，
15:04
but air quality impacts
are right here today.
are right here today.
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但是空气质量的影响
已经在这里了。
已经在这里了。
15:07
And they know that clean energy
is essential to powering their future.
is essential to powering their future.
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他们也知道清洁能源是
他们未来能源需求的关键。
他们未来能源需求的关键。
15:11
So China is investing hundreds
of billions of dollars in clean energy.
of billions of dollars in clean energy.
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中国在清洁能源上
投资了几千亿美元。
投资了几千亿美元。
15:17
They're flooding coal mines,
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他们给煤矿灌水，
15:19
and they're putting floating
solar panels on the surface.
solar panels on the surface.
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然后把浮动太阳能
电池板放到上面。
电池板放到上面。
15:22
They also have a panda-shaped solar farm.
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他们还有一个熊猫形状
的太阳能发电站。
的太阳能发电站。
15:24
(Applause)
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（鼓掌）
15:25
(Laughter)
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（大笑）
15:27
Yes, they're still burning coal.
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是的，他们还在烧煤。
15:29
But they've shut down
all the coal plants around Beijing.
all the coal plants around Beijing.
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但是他们已经关闭了
北京周围所有的煤厂。
北京周围所有的煤厂。
15:32
And in India, they're looking to replace
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印度也正在
15:34
a quarter of a billion
incandescent light bulbs with LEDs,
incandescent light bulbs with LEDs,
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把2.5亿白炽灯泡换成
半导体照明（LED）。
半导体照明（LED）。
15:38
which will save them
seven billion dollars in energy costs.
seven billion dollars in energy costs.
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这会使他们节省70亿能源成本。
15:42
They're investing in green jobs,
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他们正在绿色职业上投资，
15:45
and they're looking to decarbonize
their entire vehicle fleet.
their entire vehicle fleet.
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他们正在试图给
所有的汽车去碳化。
所有的汽车去碳化。
15:48
India may be the first country
to industrialize
to industrialize
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印度可能是第一个国家
15:51
without relying primarily on fossil fuels.
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不是主要通过化石燃料
达到工业化。
达到工业化。
15:55
The world is changing.
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世界正在改变。
15:57
But it just isn't changing fast enough.
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但是还不够快。
16:01
Too often, we picture this problem
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太多时候我们把这个问题想象成
16:03
as a giant boulder
sitting at the bottom of a hill,
sitting at the bottom of a hill,
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一个坐在山底的巨石，
16:05
with only a few hands on it,
trying to roll it up the hill.
trying to roll it up the hill.
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只有很少几双手试图把它推上山。
16:08
But in reality, that boulder
is already at the top of the hill.
is already at the top of the hill.
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但实际情况是，
那个巨石已经在山顶。
那个巨石已经在山顶。
16:11
And it's got hundreds of millions
of hands, maybe even billions on it,
of hands, maybe even billions on it,
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已经有几百万双手，
甚至几十亿双手，
甚至几十亿双手，
16:15
pushing it down.
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在把它往下推。
16:16
It just isn't going fast enough.
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只是它还走得不够快。
16:19
So how do we speed up that giant boulder
so we can fix climate change in time?
so we can fix climate change in time?
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那我们怎么加快推动这个巨石
从而能及时纠正气候变化呢？
从而能及时纠正气候变化呢？
16:24
You guessed it.
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你猜对了。
16:25
The number one way is by talking about it.
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第一重要的方法就是讨论它。
16:29
The bottom line is this:
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关键点在于：
16:32
climate change is affecting you and me
right here, right now,
right here, right now,
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气候变化此时此刻
正在影响你和我，
正在影响你和我，
16:37
in the places where we live.
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就在我们生活的地方。
16:40
But by working together, we can fix it.
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但是只要我们同心协力，
我们就能纠正它。
我们就能纠正它。
16:43
Sure, it's a daunting problem.
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是的，这不是一个容易的问题。
16:45
Nobody knows that more
than us climate scientists.
than us climate scientists.
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我们气候科学家比别人更了解。
16:48
But we can't give in to despair.
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但是我们不能因为绝望而放弃。
16:50
We have to go out and actively look
for the hope that we need,
for the hope that we need,
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我们必须走出去，积极
去寻找我们需要的希望，
去寻找我们需要的希望，
16:54
that will inspire us to act.
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而那个希望会激励我们去行动。
16:57
And that hope begins
with a conversation today.
with a conversation today.
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那个希望就从我们
今天的对话开始。
今天的对话开始。
17:03
Thank you.
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谢谢。
（鼓掌，欢呼）
17:04
(Applause)
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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Katharine Hayhoe - Climate scientistKatharine Hayhoe studies what climate change means to us in the places where we live.
Why you should listen
As Katharine Hayhoe writes: "I'm a climate scientist: I crunch the data, I analyze the models, and I help people like engineers and city managers and water planners prepare for the ways climate change affects all of us. I'm a professor in political science at Texas Tech University, where I direct the Climate Science Center. I'm also a lead author for the US National Climate Assessment; I host the PBS Digital Series Global Weirding; and I spend a lot of time talking to people about climate science, impacts, solutions and how they connect to our values. I've been named one of TIME's "100 Most Influential People," Fortune's "50 Greatest Leaders" and Foreign Policy's "100 Leading Global Thinkers."
"These are all tremendous honors, for which I'm enormously grateful. What means the most, though, is when just one person tells me sincerely that they had never cared about climate change before, or even thought it was real: but now, because of something they heard me say, they've changed their mind. That's what makes it all worthwhile."
Katharine Hayhoe | Speaker | TED.com