TEDGlobal 2010
Joseph Nye: Global power shifts
约瑟夫·奈谈权力转移
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历史学家和外交家约瑟夫·奈从长远的角度出发，阐述了中美之间的权力转移，以及经济、政治、以及“软”实力的全球转移。
Joseph Nye - Diplomat
The former assistant secretary of defense and former dean of Harvard's Kennedy School of Government, Joseph Nye offers sharp insights into the way nations take and cede power. Full bio
The former assistant secretary of defense and former dean of Harvard's Kennedy School of Government, Joseph Nye offers sharp insights into the way nations take and cede power. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
I'm going to talk to you
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我想讨论的
00:17
about power in this 21st century.
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是21世纪的权利。
00:19
And basically, what I'd like to tell you
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基本上我想告诉大家的
00:22
is that power is changing,
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是权利的变化，
00:25
and there are two types of changes
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有两种变化
00:27
I want to discuss.
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是我想探讨的。
00:29
One is power transition,
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一种是权利的转移，
00:32
which is change of power amongst states.
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国家和国家之间的权利变化。
00:35
And there the simple version of the message
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这是对权利转移的简单解读，
00:38
is it's moving from West to East.
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即权利正从西方转移到东方。
00:41
The other is power diffusion,
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另一种是权利的分散，
00:44
the way power is moving
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即权利的转移
00:46
from all states West or East
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是从西方和东方的各个国家
00:48
to non-state actors.
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到非国家的范围。
00:51
Those two things
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以上两种情况
00:53
are the huge shifts of power
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是本世纪权利的
00:55
in our century.
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重要转移。
00:57
And I want to tell you about them each separately
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我想分别说说这两种情况
01:00
and then how they interact
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和它们之间的相互影响
01:02
and why, in the end, there may be some good news.
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以及为什么说最终可能是个好消息。
01:06
When we talk about power transition,
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说到权利的转移，
01:09
we often talk about the rise of Asia.
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我们经常会提起亚洲的崛起。
01:13
It really should be called
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确切地说应该称作
01:15
the recovery or return of Asia.
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亚洲的复兴或者亚洲的回归。
01:17
If we looked at the world
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回顾19世纪的
01:19
in 1800,
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世界，
01:21
you'd find that more than half of the world's people
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你会发现世界上一半以上的人口
01:24
lived in Asia
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都居住在亚洲
01:26
and they made more than half the world's product.
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而且他们生产的产品占了世界总量的一半以上。
01:29
Now fast forward to 1900:
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现在我们来看20世纪，
01:32
half the world's people -- more than half -- still live in Asia,
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世界上一般的人口——超过一半——仍然在亚洲居住，
01:35
but they're now making
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但是他们的生产总值
01:37
only a fifth of the world's product.
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进占全球的五分之一。
01:39
What happened? The Industrial Revolution,
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这是为什么呢？工业革命，
01:42
which meant that all of a sudden,
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也就是说突然之间，
01:44
Europe and America
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欧洲和美国
01:46
became the dominant center of the world.
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成为主导世界的中心。
01:49
What we're going to see in the 21st century
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而到了21世纪，我们看到的
01:52
is Asia gradually returning
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是亚洲将重新回到
01:55
to being more than half of the world's population
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占世界一半以上人口
01:58
and more than half of the world's product.
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和生产总值的位置。
02:02
That's important and it's an important shift.
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这很重要，而且是一次重大的权利转移。
02:05
But let me tell you a little bit about
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但是接下来我要和你们探讨一下
02:07
the other shift that I'm talking about,
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刚才提到的另外一种转移，
02:09
which is power diffusion.
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那就是权利分散。
02:11
To understand power diffusion
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要理解权利分散
02:14
put this in your mind:
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就要明白一点：
02:16
computing and communications costs
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计算和交流的成本
02:19
have fallen a thousandfold
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已经降到原来的千分之几
02:22
between 1970
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从1970年
02:24
and the beginning of this century.
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到本世纪初。
02:26
Now that's a big abstract number.
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这个数字很大，很抽象，
02:28
But to make it more real,
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但是具体来说，
02:30
if the price of an automobile
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如果汽车价格
02:32
had fallen as rapidly
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的降幅
02:34
as the price of computing power,
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和计算机的降幅一样，
02:36
you could buy a car today
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那么今天你只花五美元，
02:38
for five dollars.
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就可以买辆车。
02:40
Now when the price of any technology
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那么如果所有的技术价格
02:42
declines that dramatically,
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都以这个幅度下跌，
02:45
the barriers to entry go down.
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获得这一技术的门槛就会降低；
02:48
Anybody can play in the game.
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人人都可以享有。
02:50
So in 1970,
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从20世纪70年代开始，
02:52
if you wanted to communicate
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如果你想
02:54
from Oxford to Johannesburg
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从牛津到约翰内斯堡
02:56
to New Delhi
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或到新德里
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to Brasilia
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或到巴西利亚
03:00
and anywhere simultaneously,
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或是其他任何地方获得即时通讯，
03:03
you could do it.
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是可行的，
03:05
The technology was there.
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因为技术已经发展到了这个阶段。
03:07
But to be able to do it,
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但是要真正做到这一点，
03:09
you had to be very rich --
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你需要很有钱才行——
03:11
a government, a multinational corporation,
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你要么是政府，要么是跨国公司，
03:14
maybe the Catholic Church --
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也可能是基督教堂
03:17
but you had to be pretty wealthy.
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不过你得及其有钱才行。
03:19
Now, anybody has that capacity,
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但是几天人人都能享有这些技术，
03:22
which previously was restricted by price
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以前人们受到价格的制约
03:25
just to a few actors.
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只有少数人才能享有，
03:28
If they have the price of entry into an Internet cafe --
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如果人们有足够的钱去网吧——
03:31
the last time I looked, it was something like a pound an hour --
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我上次查到的价格大概是每小时一磅左右——
03:34
and if you have Skype, it's free.
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但是如果你用Skype，是免费的。
03:37
So capabilities
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所以曾经
03:39
that were once restricted
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被限制的能力
03:41
are now available to everyone.
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现在人人都可以享有。
03:43
And what that means
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这并不意味着
03:45
is not that the age of the State is over.
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国家的时代结束了。
03:49
The State still matters.
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国家依然很重要。
03:51
But the stage is crowded.
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但是舞台是很拥挤的。
03:53
The State's not alone. There are many, many actors.
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国家不可能单独存在。还有很多很多的角色。
03:56
Some of that's good:
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其中有一些是好的角色。
03:58
Oxfam,
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比如牛津饥荒救济委员会（乐施会）
04:00
a great non-governmental actor.
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就是一个很重要的非政府角色。
04:02
Some of it's bad:
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其中也有一些是不好的。
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Al Qaeda, another non-governmental actor.
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基地组织，是另一个非政府角色。
04:07
But think of what it does
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但是试想这些对我们
04:09
to how we think in traditional terms and concepts.
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传统的思维方式和观念有哪些改变。
04:12
We think in terms of war
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我们过去考虑的是战争
04:14
and interstate war.
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和内战。
04:16
And you can think back to 1941
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大家可以想一想1941年，
04:19
when the government of Japan
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日本政府
04:21
attacked the United States at Pearl Harbor.
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日本政府袭击美国珍珠港。
04:24
It's worth noticing
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只得注意的是
04:26
that a non-state actor
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在2001年，一个非政府的角色
04:28
attacking the United States in 2001
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袭击了美国
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killed more Americans
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在这次袭击中丧生的美国人超过了
04:33
than the government of Japan did in 1941.
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1941年日本政府的行为。
04:36
You might think of that
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你可能会想
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as the privatization of war.
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战争已经不再是国家行为。
04:40
So we're seeing a great change
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因此我们看到的是权力分散的
04:43
in terms of diffusion of power.
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一个重大变化。
04:46
Now the problem is
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可问题是
04:49
that we're not thinking about it in very innovative ways.
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我们对此的看法不够新。
04:52
So let me step back
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所以让我们再重新审视
04:54
and ask: what's power?
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并且想一想：什么是权利？
04:56
Power is simple the ability
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权利其实就是一种能力
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to affect others
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能够影响他人
05:00
to get the outcomes you want,
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以达到你的目的，
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and you can do it in three ways.
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实现权利的方式有三种。
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You can do it with threats
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可以威胁他人，
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of coercion, "sticks,"
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通过强迫——棍棒，
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you can do it with payments,
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可以买通他人
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"carrots,"
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胡萝卜，
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or you can do it by getting others
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或者通过让别人心甘情愿地
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to want what you want.
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做你想要达成的结果。
05:16
And that ability to get others to want what you want,
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而让别人心甘情愿地做逆向要做的，
05:19
to get the outcomes you want
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来达到你的目的，
05:21
without coercion or payment,
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而不是通过强迫或买通，
05:23
is what I call soft power.
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就是我所说的软实力。
05:26
And that soft power has been much neglected
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而这种软实力很大程度上被人们所忽视
05:29
and much misunderstood,
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所误解了。
05:31
and yet it's tremendously important.
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然而软实力是极其重要地。
05:34
Indeed, if you can learn
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事实上，如果你知道如何
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to use more soft power,
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运用软实力，
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you can save a lot
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你会节省很多地
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on carrots and sticks.
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胡萝卜和棍棒。
05:43
Traditionally, the way people thought about power
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按照惯例，人们认为权利
05:46
was primarily in terms of military power.
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基本就是军事力量。
05:50
For example, the great Oxford historian
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例如来自牛津的伟大的历史学家
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who taught here at this university, A.J.P. Taylor,
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A.J.P. 泰勒
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defined a great power
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对大国的定义是
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as a country able to prevail in war.
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能够打赢战争的国家。
06:02
But we need a new narrative
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但是我们需要一个新的阐述
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if we're to understand power in the 21st century.
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来真正懂得21世纪地权利。
06:06
It's not just prevailing at war,
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权利不仅仅是赢得战争
06:08
though war still persists.
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尽管战争依旧存在。
06:11
It's not whose army wins;
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哪一个国家的军队赢了并不重要；
06:13
it's also whose story wins.
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重要的是谁讲的故事能够赢得人心。
06:16
And we have to think much more in terms of narratives
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而且我们需要进一步考虑这个阐释
06:19
and whose narrative is going to be effective.
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以及谁的阐释更加有效。
06:23
Now let me go back
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现在我要回到
06:25
to the question
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国家之间
06:27
of power transition
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权利转移
06:29
between states
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的问题
06:31
and what's happening there.
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讲讲最新的动态。
06:33
the narratives that we use now
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我们现在用的阐释
06:35
tend to be the rise and fall
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大多是大国的
06:37
of the great powers.
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崛起和没落。
06:39
And the current narrative is all about
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而近来这种阐述全都是
06:41
the rise of China
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中国的崛起
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and the decline of the United States.
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和美国的没落
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Indeed, with the 2008 financial crisis,
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确实，2008年发生的经济危机
06:48
many people said this was
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会让很多人说这是
06:50
the beginning of the end of American power.
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美国领导力终结的开始。
06:52
The tectonic plates
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全球政治格局的板块
06:54
of world politics were shifting.
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正在发生转变。
06:57
And president Medvedev of Russia, for example,
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例如俄罗斯的总统梅德韦杰夫，
06:59
pronounced in 2008
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在2008年曾说过
07:01
this was the beginning of the end
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经济危机是美国领导力结束
07:03
of United States power.
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的开端。
07:05
But in fact,
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然而事实上，
07:07
this metaphor of decline
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这种衰落的比喻
07:09
is often very misleading.
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非常误导人。
07:11
If you look at history, in recent history,
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如果回顾历史，近代历史
07:14
you'll see the cycles of belief
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你会发现这种认为
07:16
in American decline
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美国衰落的说法
07:18
come and go every 10 or 15 years or so.
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每隔10年到20年左右就会出现。
07:22
In 1958,
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1958年，
07:24
after the Soviets put up Sputnik,
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苏联发射人造卫星以后
07:26
it was "That's the end of America."
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人们就说“美国要衰落了。”
07:28
In 1973, with the oil embargo
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1973年的石油禁运
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and the closing of the gold window,
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和黄金窗口的关闭，
07:33
that was the end of America.
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又有人说美国要衰落了。
07:35
In the 1980s,
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20世纪80年代，
07:37
as America went through a transition in the Reagan period,
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在里根就职期间，美国经历了一次
07:39
between the rust belt economy of the midwest
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从美国中西部老工业基地
07:42
to the Silicon Valley economy of California,
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到加州的硅谷经济的转变，
07:45
that was the end of America.
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又有人在说美国要衰落了。
07:48
But in fact, what we've seen
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但事实上，我们发现
07:50
is none of those were true.
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所有这些谣言都不是真的。
07:53
Indeed, people were over-enthusiastic
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事实上，正是人们在21世纪初
07:56
in the early 2000s,
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过分乐观，
07:58
thinking America could do anything,
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认为美国无所不能，
08:00
which led us into some disastrous
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导致了我们作出了一些灾难性的
08:02
foreign policy adventures,
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外交政策，
08:04
and now we're back to decline again.
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现在又出现了美国衰落的声音。
08:06
The moral of this story
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总之
08:08
is all these narratives about rise and fall and decline
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所有这些关于崛起，倒退和衰落的阐述
08:11
tell us a lot more about psychology
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讲的更多的是一种心理
08:14
than they do about reality.
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而不是事实。
08:16
If we try to focus on the reality,
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现在让我们只关注事实，
08:19
then what we need to focus on
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那么我们就需要关注
08:21
is what's really happening
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当下在中国和美国
08:23
in terms of China and the United States.
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正在发生的事情。
08:27
Goldman Sachs has projected
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高盛预言
08:29
that China, the Chinese economy,
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中国，中国经济
08:32
will surpass that of the U.S.
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将会在2027年
08:35
by 2027.
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超过美国。
08:37
So we've got, what,
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所以我们只剩下
08:39
17 more years to go or so
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在中国超过美国之前
08:41
before China's bigger.
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我们只剩下17年左右。
08:43
Now someday,
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也许未来
08:45
with a billion point three people getting richer,
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等到这1.3亿人口富起来的时候，
08:47
they are going to be bigger than the United States.
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他们将超过美国。
08:50
But be very careful about these projections
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但是不要轻易接受
08:52
such as the Goldman Sachs projection
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高盛这些公司做出的预测。
08:54
as though that gives you an accurate picture
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尽管这些预测能给你本世纪潜力转移的
08:57
of power transition in this century.
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精确画面。
09:00
Let me mention three reasons why it's too simple.
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让我来给出为什么这些预测过于简单的原因。
09:03
First of all, it's a linear projection.
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第一，它是线性的预测。
09:06
You know, everything says,
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种种迹象
09:08
here's the growth rate of China, here's the growth rate of the U.S.,
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这是中国的增长率，这是美国的增长率，
09:10
here it goes -- straight line.
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请看——直线
09:12
History is not linear.
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然而历史不是一条直线。
09:14
There are often bumps along the road, accidents along the way.
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历史进程经常出现曲折和突发事件。
09:17
The second thing is
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第二
09:19
that the Chinese economy
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中国经济
09:21
passes the U.S. economy in, let's say, 2030,
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如果说在2030年超过了美国经济，
09:24
which it may it,
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就算事实真的如此，
09:26
that will be a measure of total economic size,
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也是按经济总量来衡量的，
09:29
but not of per capita income --
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并非人均收入——
09:31
won't tell you about the composition of the economy.
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并不能说明经济的组成。
09:34
China still has large areas
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中国的广大地区
09:36
of underdevelopment
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还很落后。
09:38
and per capita income is a better measure
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人均收入能够更好的衡量
09:40
of the sophistication of the economy.
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经济的复杂性。
09:42
And that the Chinese won't catch up or pass the Americans
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在这之后，中国才有可能在人均收入
09:45
until somewhere in the latter part,
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超过美国，
09:47
after 2050, of this century.
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那会是在本世纪，2050年以后。
09:50
The other point that's worth noticing
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另外值得一提的是
09:53
is how one-dimensional
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这个预测的衡量标准
09:55
this projection is.
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是多么的单一。
09:57
You know, it looks at economic power
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它看到是通过GDP，
09:59
measured by GDP.
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衡量的经济实力。
10:01
Doesn't tell you much about military power,
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并不说明军事实力，
10:04
doesn't tell you very much about soft power.
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也不能说明软实力。
10:06
It's all very one-dimensional.
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它的衡量标准是单一的。
10:08
And also, when we think about the rise of Asia,
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而且说到亚洲的崛起，
10:11
or return of Asia
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或者是亚洲的回归，
10:13
as I called it a little bit earlier,
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就像我之前提到的，
10:15
it's worth remembering Asia's not one thing.
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需要注意的是亚洲不是一个整体。
10:18
If you're sitting in Japan,
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对于日本，
10:21
or in New Delhi,
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新德里，
10:23
or in Hanoi,
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或者河内来说，
10:25
your view of the rise of China
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对与中国的崛起
10:28
is a little different than if you're sitting in Beijing.
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和中国自己的看法是不同的。
10:31
Indeed, one of the advantages
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事实上，关于亚洲的势力
10:33
that the Americans will have
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美国拥有的
10:35
in terms of power in Asia
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一个优势
10:37
is all those countries
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就是所有这些国家
10:39
want an American insurance policy
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都希望得到美国政策的保护
10:41
against the rise of China.
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来制衡中国。
10:43
It's as though Mexico and Canada
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就像墨西哥和加拿大
10:46
were hostile neighbors to the United States,
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历史上是美国不很友好的邻邦，
10:48
which they're not.
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现在也是这样的。
10:50
So these simple projections
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所以高盛作出的这些
10:52
of the Goldman Sachs type
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简单的预测
10:54
are not telling us what we need to know
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并不能说明我们应该知道的
10:56
about power transition.
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全力转移。
10:57
But you might ask, well so what in any case?
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然而，你可能会说，无论如何，那又怎么样呢？
11:00
Why does it matter? Who cares?
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为什么这一点很重要？谁会在乎？
11:02
Is this just a game
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这只是一场
11:04
that diplomats and academics play?
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外交家们和学术界的一场游戏吗？
11:06
The answer is it matters quite a lot.
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答案是这一点很重要。
11:09
Because, if you believe in decline
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因为，如果相信衰落
11:11
and you get the answers wrong on this,
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关于这个问题得到的答案是错误的，
11:14
the facts, not the myths,
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事实上，不是谣传，
11:16
you may have policies which are very dangerous.
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这样错误的答案是很危险的。
11:19
Let me give you an example from history.
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以下是历史上的例子。
11:22
The Peloponnesian War
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伯罗奔尼萨战争
11:24
was the great conflict
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是希腊城邦体制的
11:26
in which the Greek city state system
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很大的冲突
11:28
tore itself apart
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导致了两千伍佰年前
11:31
two and a half millennia ago.
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希腊的分崩离析。
11:34
What caused it?
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根源是什么？
11:36
Thucydides, the great historian of the the Peloponnesian War,
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修西得底斯，伯罗奔尼萨战争时期的伟大历史学家，
11:39
said it was the rise in the power of Athens
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说是因为希腊人的崛起
11:42
and the fear it created in Sparta.
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和斯巴达克人对希腊人崛起的恐惧。
11:45
Notice both halves of that explanation.
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注意这前后这两部分的原因。
11:48
Many people argue
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很多人认为
11:50
that the 21st century
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21世纪
11:52
is going to repeat the 20th century,
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将会重蹈20世纪的覆辙，
11:54
in which World War One,
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第一次世界大战
11:57
the great conflagration
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的战火
11:59
in which the European state system
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使得整个欧洲的体制
12:01
tore itself apart
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分崩离析
12:03
and destroyed its centrality in the world,
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破坏了它在世界的中心地位，
12:05
that that was caused by
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原因就是
12:07
the rise in the power of Germany
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德国的崛起
12:09
and the fear it created in Britain.
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和英国的恐慌。
12:12
So there are people who are telling us
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所以今天有些人告诉我们
12:14
this is going to be reproduced today,
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今天这样得历史将会重演，
12:16
that what we're going to see
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为我们将会看到的
12:18
is the same thing now in this century.
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是本世纪历史得重演。
12:21
No, I think that's wrong.
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不，我认为这不会发生。
12:23
It's bad history.
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那段历史不会重蹈。
12:25
For one thing, Germany had surpassed Britain
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一方面，在1900年德国得工业实力
12:27
in industrial strength by 1900.
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已经超过了英国。
12:29
And as I said earlier,
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就像我之前说过的，
12:31
China has not passed the United States.
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中国还没有超过美国。
12:34
But also, if you have this belief
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但同时如果相信衰落
12:36
and it creates a sense of fear,
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就会产生恐惧，
12:39
it leads to overreaction.
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导致过度反映。
12:41
And the greatest danger we have
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我们在处理权利向东方转移时
12:43
of managing this power transition
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面临的最大的危险
12:46
of the shift toward the East is fear.
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就是恐惧。
12:49
To paraphrase Franklin Roosevelt
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用罗斯福的话
12:51
from a different context,
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来说就是
12:53
the greatest thing we have to fear is fear itself.
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我们最需要害怕的是害怕本身。
12:56
We don't have to fear the rise of China
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我们不需要害怕中国的崛起
12:59
or the return of Asia.
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或者亚洲的回归。
13:01
And if we have policies
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如果我们采取的
13:03
in which we take it
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政策
13:05
in that larger historical perspective,
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能够从历史的大局出发，
13:07
we're going to be able
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我们就可以
13:09
to manage this process.
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处理好这个过程。
13:11
Let me say a word now
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现在我想说的一个词就是
13:13
about the distribution of power
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权利的分配
13:15
and how it relates to power diffusion
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以及它是如何和权利的分散相联系的
13:18
and then pull these two types together.
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然后我会把二者撮合到一起。
13:20
If you ask how is power distributed in the world today,
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如果你们想知道今天世界的是如何分配的，
13:23
it's distributed much like
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权利的分配很像是
13:26
a three-dimensional chess game.
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三维的象棋。
13:29
Top board:
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最高层：
13:31
military power among states.
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各国的军事力量。
13:33
The United States is the only superpower,
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美国是唯一的超级大国，
13:36
and it's likely to remain that way
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而且未来20到30年
13:38
for two or three decades.
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依然如此。
13:40
China's not going to replace the U.S. on this military board.
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中国在军事这盘棋还不能取代美国。
13:43
Middle board of this three-dimensional chess game:
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这盘三维象棋的中间是：
13:46
economic power among states.
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各国经济实力的较量。
13:48
Power is multi-polar.
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经济实力是多极的。
13:51
There are balancers --
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各级之间相互平衡。
13:53
the U.S., Europe,
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美国，欧洲，
13:55
China, Japan
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中国，日本
13:57
can balance each other.
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能够相互制衡。
13:59
The bottom board of this three-dimensional,
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三维象棋的最下层，
14:02
the board of transnational relations,
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是各国之间的关系，
14:04
things that cross borders outside the control of governments,
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是各国政府所不能够控制的因素，
14:08
things like climate change, drug trade,
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例如气候变暖，毒品走私，
14:11
financial flows,
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货币流入和流出，
14:13
pandemics,
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传染病，
14:15
all these things that cross borders
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所有这些跨国因素
14:17
outside the control of governments,
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都不是政府所能掌控的，
14:19
there nobody's in charge.
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而且也没有人负责。
14:21
It makes no sense to call this unipolar
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把这些叫做单极或者多极是没有
14:23
or multi-polar.
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任何意义的。
14:25
Power is chaotically distributed.
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权利的分配是很混乱的。
14:27
And the only way you can solve these problems --
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而且唯一能解决这些跨国问题的——
14:29
and this is where many greatest challenges
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这也正是本世纪出现的很多
14:31
are coming in this century --
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大的挑战的唯一出路——
14:33
is through cooperation,
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那就是合作，
14:35
through working together,
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通过互相合作，
14:37
which means that soft power becomes more important,
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也就是说软实力越来越重要了，
14:40
that ability to organize networks
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协调各国的关系
14:42
to deal with these kinds of problems
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来解决这些问题
14:44
and to be able to get cooperation.
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并达成一致日益重要。
14:47
Another way of putting it
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另外一种阐释就是
14:49
is that as we think of power in the 21st century,
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说到21世纪的权利，
14:52
we want to get away from the idea
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我们想要摆脱
14:54
that power's always zero sum --
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权利总是走向零和——
14:56
my gain is your loss and vice versa.
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不是你死就是我活
14:59
Power can also be positive sum,
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权利也可以是正和，
15:02
where your gain can be my gain.
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你获得的同时我也可以获得。
15:05
If China develops greater energy security
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如果中国能的能源安全发展的更好，
15:08
and greater capacity
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处理
15:10
to deal with its problems of carbon emissions,
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碳排放的能力越强
15:12
that's good for us
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对我们来说有好处，
15:14
as well as good for China
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同时对中国有好处
15:16
as well as good for everybody else.
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而且对每个国家都有好处。
15:18
So empowering China
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因此赋予中国
15:20
to deal with its own problems of carbon
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应对温室效应的能力
15:23
is good for everybody,
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对谁都有好处，
15:26
and it's not a zero sum, I win, you lose.
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而且这不是一个零和游戏，我赢你就输了。
15:29
It's one in which we can all gain.
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这是一场双赢的游戏。
15:31
So as we think about power
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所以想到本世纪的
15:33
in this century,
385
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权利，
15:35
we want to get away from this view
386
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我们要摆脱这种
15:37
that it's all I win, you lose.
387
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你死我活的观念。
15:40
Now I don't mean to be Pollyannaish about this.
388
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我并不是过分乐观。
15:43
Wars persist. Power persists.
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战争已就存在，权利依旧存在。
15:45
Military power is important.
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军事力量依旧很重要。
15:47
Keeping balances is important.
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保持平衡很重要。
15:49
All this still persists.
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所有这些仍然继续。
15:51
Hard power is there,
393
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硬实力很重要，
15:53
and it will remain.
394
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而且依然很重要。
15:55
But unless you learn how to mix
395
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但是除非学会如何将
15:57
hard power with soft power
396
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硬实力和软实力相结合
15:59
into strategies that I call smart power,
397
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到我所说的巧实力的战略中，
16:02
you're not going to deal with the new kinds of problems
398
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就不用再处理我们所面对的类似的
16:04
that we're facing.
399
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新问题了。
16:07
So the key question that we need to think about as we look at this
400
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因此关键问题是关于这个问题时我们需要
16:10
is how do we work together
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思考如何合作
16:12
to produce global public goods,
402
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来创造有益于全世界
16:15
things from which all of us can benefit?
403
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有益于每个国家的东西。
16:18
How do we define our national interests
404
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思考如何定义国家利益
16:20
so that it's not just zero sum,
405
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这样它就不再是零和，
16:22
but positive sum.
406
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而是正和。
16:24
In that sense, if we define our interests,
407
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那样的话，如果我们能够定义我们的利益，
16:26
for example, for the United States
408
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例如，在19世纪英国
16:28
the way Britain defined its interests in the 19th century,
409
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认为美国可以使其
16:31
keeping an open trading system,
410
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保持开放的贸易体系，
16:34
keeping a monetary stability, keeping freedom of the seas --
411
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稳定的货币，和海上自由——
16:37
those were good for Britain,
412
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这些对英国都是有利的，
16:39
they were good for others as well.
413
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对其他国家也是有利的。
16:41
And in the 21st century, you have to do an analog to that.
414
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在21世界，我们应该以史为鉴，
16:44
How do we produce global public goods,
415
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如何创造有利于全世界，
16:47
which are good for us,
416
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有利于我们自己，
16:49
but good for everyone at the same time?
417
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但同时又有利于每个人的事情，
16:51
And that's going to be the good news dimension
418
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这就是我们在思考
16:53
of what we need to think about
419
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2000
21世纪的权利时
16:55
as we think of power in the 21st century.
420
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3000
想到的一些好的结果。
16:58
There are ways to define our interests
421
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对于国家利益的理解，
17:01
in which, while protecting ourselves with hard power,
422
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在用硬实力保护自我的同时
17:04
we can organize with others in networks
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我们还可以协调和其他国家的关系
17:07
to produce, not only public goods,
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来创造不仅是有利于全世界
17:10
but ways that will enhance our soft power.
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同时也有利于增强我们的软实力的理解。
17:13
So if one looks at the statements
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因此得到这一结论的
17:16
that have been made about this,
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说法，
17:18
I am impressed that when Hillary Clinton
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希拉里克林顿
17:20
described the foreign policy
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关于奥巴马政府
17:22
of the Obama administration,
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外交政策的阐述让我印象颇深，
17:24
she said that the foreign policy of the Obama administration
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她说奥巴马政府的外交政策
17:27
was going to be smart power,
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应该立足于巧实力，
17:30
as she put it, "using all the tools
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就向她说得那样“利用
17:32
in our foreign policy tool box."
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外交政策的各种策略。“
17:36
And if we're going to deal
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要处理好
17:38
with these two great power shifts that I've described,
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我提到的这两种全力转移，
17:41
the power shift represented by transition among states,
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一种是国家之间权利的转移，
17:44
the power shift represented
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一种是
17:46
by diffusion of power away from all states,
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从国家分散出来的权利，
17:49
we're going to have to develop a new narrative of power
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我们就需要形成关于权利的新的阐释
17:52
in which we combine hard and soft power
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将软硬实力结合
17:55
into strategies of smart power.
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到巧实力中。
17:58
And that's the good news I have. We can do that.
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这就是我说的好消息。我们能够做到。
18:01
Thank you very much.
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非常感谢。
18:03
(Applause)
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（鼓掌）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Joseph Nye - DiplomatThe former assistant secretary of defense and former dean of Harvard's Kennedy School of Government, Joseph Nye offers sharp insights into the way nations take and cede power.
Why you should listen
From the window of his living room, Joseph Nye looks out on the battle green in Lexington, Massachusetts. There, just before dawn in April 1775, American minutemen and British regulars squared off, firing the first shots of the American Revolution. It's a perfect locale for Nye, whose ideas on how the struggle for power shapes the lives of nations are required reading for diplomats worldwide.
His views on the blending of hard and soft power into what he calls smart power have relevance in the day of non-state political forces (like Al-Qaeda). Nye has done much writing on how the age-old diplomatic methodologies of hard power (military force and economic payments) and soft power (persuasion and attraction) have fused into smart power and a cogent and usable diplomacy. It's the subject of his newest work, The Future of Power in the 21st Century, which provides a pragmatic roadmap for a country's foreign policy to deal with the challenges of a global information age.
Joseph Nye | Speaker | TED.com