TED2011
Bill Gates: How state budgets are breaking US schools
比爾．蓋茲：州政府預算如何摧毀美國的學校
Filmed:
Readability: 3.7
2,067,047 views
美國的學校系統經費由五十州的各個州政府資助。在這場砲火猛烈的演講中，比爾．蓋茲陳述州預算充滿了會計手段。藉由犧牲教育經費，以掩飾健保與退休金真正的支出金額、加權掩飾惡化的赤字。
Bill Gates - Philanthropist
A passionate techie and a shrewd businessman, Bill Gates changed the world while leading Microsoft to dizzying success. Now he's doing it again with his own style of philanthropy and passion for innovation. Full bio
A passionate techie and a shrewd businessman, Bill Gates changed the world while leading Microsoft to dizzying success. Now he's doing it again with his own style of philanthropy and passion for innovation. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
Well, this is about state budgets.
0
0
2000
這是有關州預算的演講
00:17
This is probably the most boring topic
1
2000
3000
這大概是整個早上
00:20
of the whole morning.
2
5000
2000
最枯燥乏味的講題
00:22
But I want to tell you, I think it's an important topic
3
7000
3000
但是我想告訴你，我認為這是我們必需關心的
00:25
that we need to care about.
4
10000
3000
重要課題
00:28
State budgets
5
13000
2000
州預算
00:30
are big, big money --
6
15000
3000
有非常、非常多錢
00:33
I'll show you the numbers --
7
18000
2000
我等一下會告訴你們有多少錢
00:35
and they get very little scrutiny.
8
20000
3000
而且它們幾乎不受審查
00:38
The understanding is very low.
9
23000
3000
很少人瞭解它
00:41
Many of the people involved
10
26000
2000
大部分提出與審查預算的人
00:43
have special interests or short-term interests
11
28000
2000
只關注特定或短期的利益
00:45
that get them not thinking
12
30000
2000
讓他們不會考慮
00:47
about what the implications of the trends are.
13
32000
3000
長期趨勢所暗示的警訊
00:51
And these budgets
14
36000
2000
而這些預算
00:53
are the key for our future;
15
38000
2000
卻是我們未來的關鍵
00:55
they're the key for our kids.
16
40000
2000
是我們孩子的關鍵
00:57
Most education funding --
17
42000
2000
大多數的教育經費
00:59
whether it's K through 12,
18
44000
2000
無論是幼稚園到小學
01:01
or the great universities or community colleges --
19
46000
3000
還是大學、社區大學
01:04
most of the money for those things
20
49000
2000
這些學校大部分的資金
01:06
is coming out of these state budgets.
21
51000
3000
都來自州預算
01:09
But we have a problem.
22
54000
2000
但是我們有個問題
01:11
Here's the overall picture.
23
56000
2000
這是美國全部的預算圖
01:13
U.S. economy is big --
24
58000
3000
美國的經濟很龐大
01:16
14.7 trillion.
25
61000
2000
（國內生產總值）十四萬七千億美元
01:18
Now out of that pie,
26
63000
2000
在整個大餅之中
01:20
the government spends 36 percent.
27
65000
3000
政府支出佔了百分之三十六
01:23
So this is combining the federal level,
28
68000
2000
其中聯邦預算
01:25
which is the largest,
29
70000
2000
佔得最多
01:27
the state level and the local level.
30
72000
2000
其餘是州預算與地方預算
01:29
And it's really in this combined way
31
74000
2000
如此錯綜複雜
01:31
that you get an overall sense of what's going on,
32
76000
2000
就是你感受到目前的整體狀況
01:33
because there's a lot of complex things
33
78000
2000
因為裡面有太多複雜的項目
01:35
like Medicaid and research money
34
80000
2000
例如健保與研究支出
01:37
that flow across those boundaries.
35
82000
3000
同時在三者之間編列
01:40
But we're spending 36 percent.
36
85000
2000
但是我們確實支出百分之三十六
01:42
Well what are we taking in?
37
87000
2000
好，我們到底付了多少？
01:44
Simple business question.
38
89000
2000
基本的商業問題
01:46
Answer is 26 percent.
39
91000
3000
答案是百分之二十六
01:50
Now this leaves 10 percent deficit,
40
95000
5000
中間有百分之十的赤字
01:55
sort of a mind-blowing number.
41
100000
3000
是個令人震驚的數字
01:58
And some of that, in fact, is due to the fact
42
103000
3000
其中一部分赤字，實際上，是因為
02:01
that we've had an economic recession.
43
106000
2000
我們正處於經濟不景氣
02:03
Receipts go down,
44
108000
2000
收入減少
02:05
some spending programs go up,
45
110000
2000
某些支出計畫增加
02:07
but most of it is not because of that.
46
112000
3000
但這不是大多數赤字的原因
02:10
Most of it is because of ways
47
115000
2000
大多數赤字來自於
02:12
that the liabilities are building up
48
117000
2000
負債一直累積
02:14
and the trends,
49
119000
2000
以及趨勢如此
02:16
and that creates a huge challenge.
50
121000
3000
讓我們面臨巨大的挑戰
02:19
In fact, this is the forecast picture.
51
124000
3000
事實上，這個預測圖
02:22
There are various things in here:
52
127000
2000
裡面有幾個項目
02:24
I could say we might raise more revenue,
53
129000
2000
我可以說，我們可以提高收入
02:26
or medical innovation will make the spending even higher.
54
131000
4000
或讓醫療創新使得支出更為增加
02:30
It is an increasingly difficult picture,
55
135000
3000
讓前景看來日益困難
02:33
even assuming the economy does quite well --
56
138000
3000
即使假設經濟景氣不錯
02:36
probably better than it will do.
57
141000
3000
比預期得更好
02:39
This is what you see
58
144000
2000
這是你會看到的
02:41
at this overall level.
59
146000
2000
全體數字
02:43
Now how did we get here?
60
148000
2000
我們怎麼會變成這樣？
02:45
How could you have a problem like this?
61
150000
3000
怎麼會有這種麻煩？
02:48
After all, at least on paper,
62
153000
3000
總之，至少在帳面上
02:51
there's this notion that these state budgets are balanced.
63
156000
3000
有這種概念說這些州預算經過平衡
02:54
Only one state says
64
159000
2000
只有一個州說
02:56
they don't have to balance the budget.
65
161000
2000
他們不必平衡預算
02:58
But what this means actually
66
163000
2000
這實際上表示
03:00
is that there's a pretense.
67
165000
2000
平衡預算都只是藉口
03:02
There's no real, true balancing going on,
68
167000
3000
他們根本沒有達成真正的平衡
03:05
and in a sense, the games they play to hide that
69
170000
4000
以某方面來說，他們在玩的把戲是隱藏赤字
03:09
actually obscure the topic so much
70
174000
2000
實際上更加模糊了問題所在
03:11
that people don't see things
71
176000
2000
讓別人無法發覺
03:13
that are actually pretty straight-forward challenges.
72
178000
4000
這就是目前非常直接的挑戰
03:17
When Jerry Brown was elected,
73
182000
2000
當傑利．布朗選上（加州州長）
03:19
this was the challenge that was put to him.
74
184000
2000
這就是他要面對的挑戰
03:21
That is, through various gimmicks and things,
75
186000
3000
那就是藉由種種的花招與方法
03:24
a so-called balanced budget
76
189000
3000
所謂的平衡預算
03:27
had led him to have 25 billion missing
77
192000
4000
讓加州提出的七百六十億預算支出
03:31
out of the 76 billion in proposed spending.
78
196000
3000
消失了二百五十億
03:34
Now he's put together some thoughts:
79
199000
2000
他總結下來有幾個想法：
03:36
About half of that he'll cut,
80
201000
3000
他會砍掉其中一半
03:39
another half,
81
204000
2000
另一半
03:41
perhaps in a very complex set of steps,
82
206000
2000
也許藉由十分複雜的手段
03:43
taxes will be approved.
83
208000
2000
以加稅的方法補足
03:45
But even so,
84
210000
2000
即使如此
03:47
as you go out into those future years,
85
212000
3000
當你面對未來幾年
03:50
various pension costs, health costs go up enough,
86
215000
3000
各種退休金支出、醫療支出持續增加
03:53
and the revenue does not go up enough.
87
218000
3000
但是收入卻沒有追上支出
03:56
So you get a big squeeze.
88
221000
2000
你就必須大幅壓縮預算
03:58
What were those things that allowed us to hide this?
89
223000
3000
為什麼我們可以隱藏這些問題？
04:01
Well, some really nice little tricks.
90
226000
3000
好，有一些十分巧妙的技倆
04:04
And these were somewhat noticed.
91
229000
2000
這些是讓人稍微注意到的
04:06
The paper said, "It's not really balanced.
92
231000
2000
報紙上寫著「並非全部平衡」
04:08
It's got holes.
93
233000
2000
「有財務漏洞」
04:10
It perpetuates deficit spending.
94
235000
2000
「延續赤字支出」
04:12
It's riddled with gimmicks."
95
237000
3000
「充滿了花招」
04:15
And really when you get down to it,
96
240000
3000
當你真正深入調查的時候
04:18
the guys at Enron never would have done this.
97
243000
3000
會發現安隆的傢伙從來沒作過這種蠢事
04:21
This is so blatant,
98
246000
2000
（各州政府）實在明目張膽
04:23
so extreme.
99
248000
3000
實在罪大惡極
04:26
Is anyone paying attention
100
251000
2000
難道沒有人注意到
04:28
to some of the things these guys do?
101
253000
3000
這些傢伙所作的事情？
04:31
They borrow money.
102
256000
2000
他們借錢
04:33
They're not supposed to, but they figure out a way.
103
258000
2000
他們不該借錢，但是他們找到了方法
04:35
They make you pay more in withholding
104
260000
2000
他們強迫你繳交更多的預扣稅金
04:37
just to help their cash flow out.
105
262000
2000
只是為了讓他們有現金可用
04:39
They sell off the assets.
106
264000
2000
他們出售資產
04:41
They defer the payments.
107
266000
3000
他們拒絕付錢
04:44
They sell off the revenues from tobacco.
108
269000
2000
他們販賣來自香菸的收益
04:46
And California's not unique.
109
271000
2000
加州不是特例
04:48
In fact, there's about five states that are worse
110
273000
2000
事實上，大概有五個州的狀況更惡劣
04:50
and only really four states
111
275000
2000
只有四個州
04:52
that don't face this big challenge.
112
277000
2000
不必面對這麼大的挑戰
04:54
So it's systemic across the entire country.
113
279000
3000
所以這是充斥整個美國的現象
04:57
It really comes from the fact
114
282000
2000
它來自於這個事實
04:59
that certain long-term obligations --
115
284000
2000
相當多的長期債務——
05:01
health care, where innovation makes it more expensive,
116
286000
3000
科技創新讓健保日益昂貴
05:04
early retirement and pension, where the age structure gets worse for you,
117
289000
3000
提早退休與退休金，人口老化讓問題更加嚴重
05:07
and just generosity --
118
292000
2000
正因為寬容——
05:09
that these mis-accounting things
119
294000
2000
讓這些不正當的會計手段
05:11
allow to develop over time,
120
296000
2000
長期持續下去
05:13
that you've got a problem.
121
298000
3000
讓你面對棘手的問題
05:16
This is the retiree health care benefits.
122
301000
2000
這是退休人員健保的利益
05:18
Three million set aside, 62 billion dollar liability --
123
303000
3000
三百萬人，六百二十億美元的債務
05:21
much worse than the car companies.
124
306000
2000
比汽車公司還糟糕
05:23
And everybody looked at that
125
308000
2000
每個看到的人
05:25
and knew that that was headed toward a huge problem.
126
310000
3000
都知道這會如同滾雪球一般變成巨大的問題
05:28
The forecast for the medical piece alone
127
313000
2000
光看醫療方面的預測
05:30
is to go from 26 percent of the budget
128
315000
2000
將會從百分之二十六的預算
05:32
to 42 percent.
129
317000
2000
增加到百分之四十二
05:34
Well what's going to give?
130
319000
2000
誰來付錢？
05:36
Well in order to accommodate that,
131
321000
2000
為了應付這些債務
05:38
you would have to cut education spending in half.
132
323000
4000
你必須削減一半的教育支出
05:42
It really is this young versus the old
133
327000
2000
以某種程度來說
05:44
to some degree.
134
329000
2000
這真的是年輕人與老人的戰爭
05:46
If you don't change that revenue picture,
135
331000
3000
如果你的收入不變
05:49
if you don't solve what you're doing in health care,
136
334000
2000
如果你無法改變健保
05:51
you're going to be deinvesting in the young.
137
336000
3000
你就會剝奪年輕人
05:54
The great University of California university system,
138
339000
3000
加州的大學系統
05:57
the great things that have gone on,
139
342000
2000
一直是優良學校
05:59
won't happen.
140
344000
2000
以後不會再持續下去
06:01
So far it's meant layoffs,
141
346000
2000
目前是裁減師資
06:03
increased class sizes.
142
348000
2000
增加每班學生人數
06:05
Within the education community there's this discussion of,
143
350000
3000
在教育圈子裡面討論的是：
06:08
"Should it just be the young teachers who get laid off,
144
353000
2000
「我們應該裁掉年輕的老師
06:10
or the less good teachers who get laid off?"
145
355000
2000
還是表現較差的老師？」
06:12
And there's a discussion: if you're going to increase class sizes,
146
357000
3000
裡面也有討論：「如果增加班級人數
06:15
where do you do that? How much effect does that have?
147
360000
3000
要增加在哪裡？會有什麼影響？」
06:18
And unfortunately, as you get into that, people get confused and think,
148
363000
3000
不幸的是，當你掉進陷阱，就會困惑然後想：
06:21
well maybe you think that's okay.
149
366000
2000
「好吧，我想我可以接受」
06:23
In fact, no, education spending should not be cut.
150
368000
3000
實際上，不可以，絕對不能削減教育支出
06:26
There's ways, if it's temporary,
151
371000
2000
有些方法，如果只是暫時的
06:28
to minimize the impact,
152
373000
2000
可以降低影響
06:30
but it's a problem.
153
375000
2000
但是它確實是個大問題
06:32
It's also really a problem for where we need to go.
154
377000
2000
它也是掌握我們未來方向的問題
06:34
Technology has a role to play.
155
379000
2000
科技在其中扮演重要的角色
06:36
Well we need money to experiment with that,
156
381000
3000
我們需要資金實驗
06:39
to get those tools in there.
157
384000
2000
以研發可用的教育工具
06:41
There's the idea of paying teachers for effectiveness,
158
386000
2000
有人想依據教師教學的成效給薪
06:43
measuring them, giving them feedback,
159
388000
2000
量化教學成效、給予教師回饋
06:45
taking videos in the classroom.
160
390000
2000
在教室拍攝影片
06:47
That's something I think is very, very important.
161
392000
2000
我覺得這些事情非常、非常重要
06:49
Well you have to allocate dollars
162
394000
2000
你必須花錢
06:51
for that system
163
396000
2000
購買這種系統
06:53
and for that incentive pay.
164
398000
2000
才能給付獎勵性的薪水
06:55
In a situation where you have growth,
165
400000
2000
經濟成長的狀況下
06:57
you put the new money into this.
166
402000
2000
你可以把多的收入花費在這裡
06:59
Or even if you're flat, you might shift money into it.
167
404000
2000
即使你經濟持平，你也可以挪一些錢過去
07:01
But with the type of cuts we're talking about,
168
406000
2000
但現在是我們之前所講的惡劣情況
07:03
it will be far, far harder
169
408000
2000
就會變得非常、非常困難
07:05
to get these incentives for excellence,
170
410000
2000
難以撥出這些獎勵金給優秀教師
07:07
or to move over
171
412000
2000
或是難以改變方式
07:09
to use technology in the new way.
172
414000
3000
運用科技提昇教育
07:12
So what's going on?
173
417000
2000
所以現在到底是什麼狀況？
07:14
Where's the brain trust
174
419000
2000
智囊團在哪裡
07:16
that's in error here?
175
421000
2000
哪裡就會出錯
07:18
Well there really is no brain trust.
176
423000
3000
好吧，根本沒有智囊團
07:21
(Laughter)
177
426000
2000
（笑聲）
07:23
It's sort of the voters. It's sort of us showing up.
178
428000
4000
這算是投票者的義務，也算是我們該挺身而出的時候
07:27
Just look at this spending.
179
432000
2000
看看這些支出
07:29
California will spend over 100 billion,
180
434000
2000
加州支出超過一千億美元
07:31
Microsoft, 38,
181
436000
2000
微軟，三百八十億
07:33
Google, about 19.
182
438000
2000
Google，大約一百九十億
07:35
The amount of IQ in good numeric analysis,
183
440000
3000
這些是 Google 與微軟裡面
07:38
both inside Google and Microsoft
184
443000
2000
擅長數學分析的智商總和
07:40
and outside, with analysts and people of various opinions --
185
445000
3000
出了這兩家公司，有一堆分析師與各式各樣意見的人——
07:43
should they have spent on that?
186
448000
2000
他們該花那筆錢嗎？
07:45
No, they wasted their money on this. What about this thing? --
187
450000
2000
不，他們在浪費錢。這個如何？——
07:47
it really is quite phenomenal.
188
452000
3000
這真是了不起
07:50
Everybody has an opinion.
189
455000
2000
每個人都有意見
07:52
There's great feedback.
190
457000
3000
有大量的回饋意見
07:55
And the numbers are used to make decisions.
191
460000
3000
意見的數量用來作出決策
07:58
If you go over the education spending and the health care spending --
192
463000
3000
如果你查看教育支出與健保支出——
08:01
particularly these long-term trends --
193
466000
3000
尤其是長期趨勢——
08:04
you don't have that type of involvement
194
469000
2000
你不需要瞭解這些數字
08:06
on a number that's more important
195
471000
2000
就知道公平與學習
08:08
in terms of equity, in terms of learning.
196
473000
3000
才是最重要的事
08:11
So what do we need to do?
197
476000
2000
所以我們需要作什麼？
08:13
We need better tools.
198
478000
2000
我們需要更好的工具（提醒大眾）
08:15
We can get some things out on the Internet.
199
480000
2000
我們可以靠網際網路作到一些
08:17
I'm going to use my website
200
482000
2000
我會運用我的網站
08:19
to put up some things that will give the basic picture.
201
484000
2000
發布一些資料，讓人瞭解一些基本概念
08:21
We need lots more.
202
486000
2000
我們還需要更多
08:23
There's a few good books,
203
488000
2000
有幾本好書
08:25
one about school spending and where the money comes from --
204
490000
2000
有一本關於學校支出與財源——
08:27
how that's changed over time, and the challenge.
205
492000
3000
收支如何隨時間變化，以及面臨的挑戰
08:30
We need better accounting.
206
495000
2000
我們需要更好的會計方法
08:32
We need to take the fact
207
497000
2000
我們需要承認事實
08:34
that the current employees, the future liabilities they create,
208
499000
2000
現在的員工，他們製造未來的債務
08:36
that should come out of the current budget.
209
501000
3000
都是從現在的預算中支付
08:39
We need to understand why they've done the pension accounting
210
504000
2000
我們需要瞭解為什麼他們對退休金的會計數字
08:41
the way they have.
211
506000
2000
作了這些手腳
08:43
It should be more like private accounting.
212
508000
2000
政府會計應該要如同私人會計
08:45
It's the gold standard.
213
510000
2000
有著嚴格的標準
08:47
And finally, we need to really reward politicians.
214
512000
3000
最後，我們需要以實際行動獎勵政治家
08:50
Whenever they say there's these long-term problems,
215
515000
2000
當他們說有長期的問題存在
08:52
we can't say, "Oh, you're the messenger with bad news?
216
517000
2000
我們不能回答：「喔，所以你只是個烏鴉嘴？
08:54
We just shot you."
217
519000
3000
去死吧」
08:57
In fact, there are some like these:
218
522000
2000
事實上，有些人就是那樣子
08:59
Erskine Bowles, Alan Simpson and others,
219
524000
2000
厄斯金．包爾、艾藍、辛普森與其他人
09:01
who have gone through and given proposals
220
526000
3000
他們進行調查並提出方案
09:04
for this overall federal health-spending state-level problem.
221
529000
4000
處理全聯邦普遍存在健保支出於州層級問題
09:08
But in fact, their work was sort of pushed off.
222
533000
2000
但是實際上，他們的方案被延後
09:10
In fact, the week afterwards,
223
535000
3000
事實上，方案提出之後幾個星期
09:13
some tax cuts were done
224
538000
2000
通過了一些減稅法案
09:15
that made the situation even worse
225
540000
2000
導致情況比他們預想的
09:17
than their assumptions.
226
542000
2000
更加惡化
09:19
So we need these pieces.
227
544000
2000
所以我們需要之前提過的東西
09:21
Now I think this is a solvable problem.
228
546000
3000
目前我認為這是可以解決的問題
09:24
It's a great country with lots of people.
229
549000
3000
美國是人口眾多的大國
09:27
But we have to draw those people in,
230
552000
4000
但是我們必須同心協力
09:31
because this is about education.
231
556000
2000
因為這是有關教育的問題
09:33
And just look at what happened with the tuitions
232
558000
2000
只要看看加州大學
09:35
with the University of California
233
560000
2000
學費的問題
09:37
and project that out for another three, four, five years --
234
562000
3000
向外推測三、四、五年之後上漲的學費
09:40
it's unaffordable.
235
565000
3000
年輕人將會讀不起大學
09:43
And that's the kind of thing --
236
568000
2000
教育是一種——
09:45
the investment in the young --
237
570000
2000
對於年輕人的投資——
09:47
that makes us great, allows us to contribute.
238
572000
2000
使我們（美國人）偉大、讓我們貢獻心力
09:49
It allows us to do the art,
239
574000
2000
它讓我們成就藝術
09:51
the biotechnology, the software
240
576000
3000
發展生物科技、研發軟體
09:54
and all those magic things.
241
579000
3000
作出許多神奇的事物
09:57
And so the bottom line is
242
582000
2000
所以重點是
09:59
we need to care about state budgets
243
584000
3000
我們必須關心州預算
10:02
because they're critical for our kids and our future.
244
587000
2000
因為它是我們孩子與我們未來的關鍵
10:04
Thank you.
245
589000
2000
謝謝各位
10:06
(Applause)
246
591000
3000
（掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Bill Gates - PhilanthropistA passionate techie and a shrewd businessman, Bill Gates changed the world while leading Microsoft to dizzying success. Now he's doing it again with his own style of philanthropy and passion for innovation.
Why you should listen
Bill Gates is the founder and former CEO of Microsoft. A geek icon, tech visionary and business trailblazer, Gates' leadership -- fueled by his long-held dream that millions might realize their potential through great software -- made Microsoft a personal computing powerhouse and a trendsetter in the Internet dawn. Whether you're a suit, chef, quant, artist, media maven, nurse or gamer, you've probably used a Microsoft product today.
In summer of 2008, Gates left his day-to-day role with Microsoft to focus on philanthropy. Holding that all lives have equal value (no matter where they're being lived), the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation has now donated staggering sums to HIV/AIDS programs, libraries, agriculture research and disaster relief -- and offered vital guidance and creative funding to programs in global health and education. Gates believes his tech-centric strategy for giving will prove the killer app of planet Earth's next big upgrade.
Read a collection of Bill and Melinda Gates' annual letters, where they take stock of the Gates Foundation and the world. And follow his ongoing thinking on his personal website, The Gates Notes. His new paper, "The Next Epidemic," is published by the New England Journal of Medicine.
Bill Gates | Speaker | TED.com