TED Salon U.S. Air Force
Michele Wucker: Why we ignore obvious problems -- and how to act on them
蜜雪兒·渥克: 我們為甚麼會不顧明顯的問題，又應該如何處理
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Readability: 3.4
2,179,064 views
為甚麼我們常常忽略金融危機和氣候變化之類的大問題，到為時已晚才後知後覺？政策策略家蜜雪兒·渥克催促我們不要再誤以為災難罕有、無法預視也無法避免（也就是所謂的「黑天鵝」說法），正視危機通常是可以預防，但我們選擇逃避（也就是危機實際是「灰犀牛」）的現實。她分享可預測的危機為甚麼會讓我們措手不及，也點出有哪些症狀，顯示你生命中可能也有隻朝你狂奔的犀牛。
Michele Wucker - Author, policy analyst
Michele Wucker coined the term "gray rhino" as a metaphor for obvious risks that are neglected despite -- in fact, often because of -- their size and likelihood. Full bio
Michele Wucker coined the term "gray rhino" as a metaphor for obvious risks that are neglected despite -- in fact, often because of -- their size and likelihood. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
So what if there were
a highly obvious problem
a highly obvious problem
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如果有個顯而易見的問題
就在你面前，
00:17
right in front of you?
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00:19
One that everyone was talking about,
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那個問題人人都在談論，
00:22
one that affected you directly.
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直接影響你。
00:25
Would you do everything
within your power to fix things
within your power to fix things
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你會盡你所能處理這問題
00:29
before they got worse?
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以免問題惡化嗎？
00:32
Don't be so sure.
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別那麼確定喔。
00:34
We are all much more likely
than any of us would like to admit
than any of us would like to admit
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就算我們不想去承認，
但其實把當務之急置之不理
但其實把當務之急置之不理
00:38
to miss what's right in front of our eyes.
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是我們所有人都很容易犯的錯。
00:41
And in fact,
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事實上，
00:43
we're sometimes most likely
to turn away from things
to turn away from things
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我們有時正會因為問題對我們自己，
00:47
precisely because of the threat
that they represent to us,
that they represent to us,
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在工作上、生命上，
和對世界帶來的威脅，
和對世界帶來的威脅，
00:51
in business, life and the world.
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而選擇對問題視而不見。
00:55
So I want to give you an example
from my world, economic policy.
from my world, economic policy.
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讓我來舉個例子吧。
以我熟悉的領域，也就是經濟政策。
以我熟悉的領域，也就是經濟政策。
01:00
So when Alan Greenspan
was head of the Federal Reserve,
was head of the Federal Reserve,
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當艾倫·葛林斯潘擔任
聯邦準備系統的主席時，
聯邦準備系統的主席時，
01:04
his entire job was to watch out
for problems in the US economy
for problems in the US economy
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他的職責就是防備美國經濟出現問題
01:09
and to make sure that they
didn't spin out of control.
didn't spin out of control.
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和確保這些問題在可控範圍内。
01:12
So, after 2006,
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所以， 2006 年以後，
01:14
when real estate prices peaked,
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當房價到頂了，
01:16
more and more and more
respected leaders and institutions
respected leaders and institutions
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越來越多備受尊崇的領導和公共團體
01:21
started to sound the alarm bells
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開始發出警告，
01:24
about risky lending
and dangerous market bubbles.
and dangerous market bubbles.
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提醒大家高風險的借貸
和市場泡沫的危險。
和市場泡沫的危險。
01:29
As you know, in 2008
it all came tumbling down.
it all came tumbling down.
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大家都知道在 2008 年，
一切都走下坡了。
一切都走下坡了。
01:33
Banks collapsed,
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銀行倒了，
01:34
global stock markets
lost nearly half their value,
lost nearly half their value,
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全球股票市場失去了約一半的市值，
01:37
millions and millions of people
lost their homes to foreclosure.
lost their homes to foreclosure.
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數以百萬計的人因為付不出房貸
而賠上了住宅。
而賠上了住宅。
01:42
And at the bottom,
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而最糟的情況是，
01:43
nearly one in 10 Americans
was out of work.
was out of work.
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幾乎每 10 個美國人就有 1 個失業。
01:48
So after things calmed down a little bit,
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當所有事稍微平復了以後，
01:51
Greenspan and many others
came out with a postmortem and said,
came out with a postmortem and said,
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葛林斯潘和很多人就出來檢討，說：
01:56
"Nobody could have predicted that crisis."
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「沒有人可以預測得到這危機。」
01:58
They called it "a black swan."
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他們稱它為「黑天鵝」，
02:01
Something that was unimaginable,
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也就是一些無法想象，
02:04
unforeseeable and completely improbable.
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無法預料，絕對不可能發生的事。
02:09
A total surprise.
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完全出乎意料之外。
02:11
Except it wasn't always such a surprise.
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但那次危機並非一直無聲無色的。
02:15
For example, my Manhattan apartment
nearly doubled in value
nearly doubled in value
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舉例說，我在曼哈頓的公寓，
幾乎漲價了一倍。
幾乎漲價了一倍。
02:19
in less than four years.
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僅僅花了不到四年。
02:21
I saw the writing on the wall
and I sold it.
and I sold it.
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我看到事態不妙，所以就賣了。
02:25
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
02:27
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
02:31
So, a lot of other people
also saw the warning,
also saw the warning,
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有很多人也看到那些危險信號。
02:34
spoke out publicly
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公開發言，
02:36
and they were ignored.
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但都被人忽略了。
02:38
So we didn't know exactly
what the crisis was going to look like,
what the crisis was going to look like,
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我們雖然不能預知危機的確實情況，
02:43
not the exact parameters,
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不知道它確實的程度大小，
02:45
but we could all tell
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但我們全都知道
02:47
that the thing coming at us
was as dangerous, visible and predictable
was as dangerous, visible and predictable
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我們要面臨的這情況
危險、明顯、可預測，
危險、明顯、可預測，
02:53
as a giant gray rhino
charging right at us.
charging right at us.
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像一頭巨型灰犀牛迎面衝上來。
02:57
The black swan lends itself
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黑天鵝很適合印證
02:59
to the idea that we don't have
power over our futures.
power over our futures.
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我們無法左右未來這概念。
03:04
And unfortunately, the less control
that we think we have,
that we think we have,
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可惜，當我們覺得
自己越無法控制一樣東西，
自己越無法控制一樣東西，
03:09
the more likely we are to downplay it
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我們越有可能看輕這件事，
03:12
or ignore it entirely.
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甚至直接完全不理。
03:16
And this dangerous dynamic
masks another problem:
masks another problem:
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這個危險的狀態，
還掩蓋著另外一個問題
還掩蓋著另外一個問題
03:20
that most of the problems
that we're facing
that we're facing
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就是我們所面對的大部分問題
03:22
are so probable and obvious,
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都很明顯，而且發生的機率都很高。
03:25
they're things that we can see,
but we still don't do anything about.
but we still don't do anything about.
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它們是大家有目共睹卻無動於衷的。
03:29
So I created the gray rhino metaphor
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所以我創造了「灰犀牛」這個隱喻，
03:32
to meet what I felt was an urgent need.
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來應對這個燃眉之急。
03:35
To help us to take a fresh look,
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讓我們用對待黑天鵝般的熱忱，
03:37
with the same passion
that people had for the black swan,
that people had for the black swan,
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重新審視問題，
03:40
but this time, for the things
that were highly obvious,
that were highly obvious,
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不過這次審視的是顯而易見、
03:44
highly probable, but still neglected.
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發生的機會很大，
卻還是被忽視的問題。
卻還是被忽視的問題。
03:50
Those are the gray rhinos.
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我們稱它們為「灰犀牛」。
03:53
Once you start looking for gray rhinos,
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你只要開始找尋這些灰犀牛，
03:55
you see them in the headlines every day.
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就會發現每天頭條都有它們的足跡。
03:59
And so what I see in the headlines
is another big gray rhino,
is another big gray rhino,
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而我又在頭條裡看到另一頭灰犀牛，
04:03
a new highly probable financial crisis.
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一場如箭在弦的新金融危機。
04:08
And I wonder if we've learned anything
in the last 10 years.
in the last 10 years.
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我在想過去 10 年裡面，
我們有以古為鏡嗎？
我們有以古為鏡嗎？
04:12
So if you listen
to Washington or Wall Street,
to Washington or Wall Street,
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如果你去聽聽華府或華爾街講的話，
04:15
you could almost be forgiven for thinking
that only smooth sailing laid ahead.
that only smooth sailing laid ahead.
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你認為前景一帆風順，
也幾乎情有可原。
也幾乎情有可原。
04:23
But in China, where I spend a lot of time,
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但我花了很長時間研究中國，
04:26
the conversation is totally different.
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在中國那邊的說法完全不一樣。
04:29
The entire economic team,
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整個經濟團隊
04:31
all the way up to president
Xi Jinping himself,
Xi Jinping himself,
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上至包括習近平主席的上級人員，
04:34
talk very specifically and clearly
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都明明確確、清清楚楚地
04:37
about financial risks as gray rhinos,
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討論灰犀牛出現的潛在風險。
04:41
and how they can tame them.
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還表明要怎樣馴服這些犀牛。
04:43
Now, to be sure, China and the US
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當然，中美兩國
04:45
have very, very different
systems of government,
systems of government,
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有著天淵之別的政府體制，
04:47
which affects what
they're able to do or not.
they're able to do or not.
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這也影響了他們的能力範圍。
04:49
And many of the root causes
for their economic problems
for their economic problems
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而兩國經濟問題的許多根本成因，
04:52
are totally different.
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也截然不同。
04:54
But it's no secret
that both countries have problems
that both countries have problems
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但眾所皆知，兩國各自面對問題，
04:57
with debt, with inequality
and with economic productivity.
and with economic productivity.
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包括債務、財富不勻
和經濟生產力的問題。
和經濟生產力的問題。
05:03
So how come the conversations
are so different?
are so different?
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那為何兩國的說法那麼不同了？
05:06
You could actually ask this question,
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其實這個問題，
05:08
not just about countries,
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不只涉及國家間的不同，
05:10
but about just about everyone.
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放諸四海皆然。
05:12
The auto companies that put safety first
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安全至上的汽車公司，
05:16
and the ones that don't bother
to recall their shoddy cars
to recall their shoddy cars
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和那些即使生產劣質車輛
也無動於衷，
也無動於衷，
05:19
until after people die.
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要到賠上人命才回收的公司。
05:24
The grandparents who,
in preparing for the inevitable --
in preparing for the inevitable --
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為無法避免的人生終章，
提早綢繆的祖父母，
提早綢繆的祖父母，
05:29
the ones who have the eulogy written,
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就是那些早就寫好悼詞的人，
05:33
the menu for the funeral lunch.
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定好解穢酒的菜單的人。
05:35
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
05:36
My grandparents did.
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我的祖父母真的定了。
05:37
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
05:39
And everything but the final date
chiseled into the gravestone.
chiseled into the gravestone.
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墓碑上除了歿日都刻先刻好了。
05:44
But then you have the grandparents
on the other side,
on the other side,
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但也有另一派的祖父母。
05:47
who don't put
their final affairs in order,
their final affairs in order,
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他們不會作善終準備。
05:49
who don't get rid of all the junk
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他們不會丟掉沒用的東西。
05:51
they've been hoarding
for decades and decades
for decades and decades
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他們囤積了幾十年了，
05:53
and leave their kids to deal with it.
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最終讓他們的子女善後。
05:56
So what makes the difference
between one side and the other?
between one side and the other?
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那這兩派人的差別在哪呢？
06:00
Why do some people
see things and deal with them,
see things and deal with them,
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為甚麼有些人看到情況馬上處理，
06:02
and the other ones just look away?
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另一些人卻視而不見呢？
06:06
So the first one has to do
with culture, society,
with culture, society,
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第一個因素就是文化、社會
06:10
the people around you.
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和你身邊的人。
06:12
If you think that someone around you
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如果你覺得你身邊的人
06:15
is going to help
pick you up when you fall,
pick you up when you fall,
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在你跌倒的時候會扶你一把，
06:18
you're much more likely
to see a danger as being smaller.
to see a danger as being smaller.
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你就會偏向覺得危險沒那麼大。
06:22
And that allows us to take
good chances, not just the bad ones.
good chances, not just the bad ones.
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這想法讓我們更加考慮到
事物的好前景，而不只是風險。
事物的好前景，而不只是風險。
06:27
For example, like risking criticism
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例如甘願面對被批評的風險，
06:29
when you talk about the danger
that nobody wants you to talk about.
that nobody wants you to talk about.
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去談論沒有人想聽的潛在危險，
06:33
Or taking the opportunities
that are kind of scary,
that are kind of scary,
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或把握一些會讓人卻步的機會。
06:36
so in their own way are gray rhinos.
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因為可怕，所以
這些機會也算是灰犀牛。
這些機會也算是灰犀牛。
06:39
So the US has a very
individualist culture -- go it alone.
individualist culture -- go it alone.
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美國的文化崇尚個人主義，
也就孤軍奮戰。
也就孤軍奮戰。
06:44
And paradoxically,
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吊詭的是，
06:45
this makes many Americans
much less open to change
much less open to change
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這文化令很多美國人比較抗拒改變，
06:49
and taking good risks.
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也怕冒好的風險。
06:51
In China, by contrast,
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中國卻相反。
06:53
people believe that the government
is going to keep problems from happening,
is going to keep problems from happening,
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人民相信政府會防止問題發生。
06:56
which might not always be what happens,
but people believe it.
but people believe it.
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事實不一定是這樣，
但反正人們是這樣相信啦。
但反正人們是這樣相信啦。
07:00
They believe they can rely
on their families,
on their families,
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他們相信家人是可以靠賴的，
07:02
so that makes them more likely
to take certain risks.
to take certain risks.
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所以有些風險他們比較敢於承擔。
07:05
Like buying Beijing real estate,
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例如在北京買房子，
07:07
or like being more open about the fact
that they need to change direction,
that they need to change direction,
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或當需要改變的時候，更敢於表達。
07:10
and in fact, the pace of change in China
is absolutely amazing.
is absolutely amazing.
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事實上，中國改變的步伐實在神速。
07:15
Second of all,
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第二，
07:17
how much do you know about a situation,
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你對情況認知多少？
07:20
how much are you willing to learn?
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而你願意學會多少？
07:22
And are you willing to see things
even when it's not what you want?
even when it's not what you want?
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當事情並不如人願，
你又是否願意看清真相？
你又是否願意看清真相？
07:26
So many of us are so unlikely
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我們大多人
07:29
to pay attention to the things
that we just want to black out,
that we just want to black out,
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不願意注意一些想置之不理的事，
07:32
we don't like them.
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我們不喜歡它們。
07:34
We pay attention to what we want to see,
what we like, what we agree with.
what we like, what we agree with.
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我們只注意我們想看的東西、
喜歡的事、同意的議題。
喜歡的事、同意的議題。
07:39
But we have the opportunity
and the ability
and the ability
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但我們有機會，也有能力
07:41
to correct those blind spots.
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去正視這些盲點。
07:44
I spend a lot of time
talking with people of all walks of life
talking with people of all walks of life
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我花了很多時間
跟各行各業的人傾談，
跟各行各業的人傾談，
07:47
about the gray rhinos in their life
and their attitudes.
and their attitudes.
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討論他們人生中的灰犀牛
和處事態度。
和處事態度。
07:50
And you might think
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你可能會想，
07:52
that the people
who are more afraid of risk,
who are more afraid of risk,
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更害怕風險的人，
07:54
who are more sensitive to them,
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對風險格外敏感的人，
07:56
would be the ones
who would be less open to change.
who would be less open to change.
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就是比較抗拒改變的人。
07:59
But the opposite is actually true.
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但事實卻相反。
08:01
I've found that the people
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我發現
08:03
who are wiling to recognize
the problems around them
the problems around them
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願意看清身邊問題和著手計劃的人，
08:05
and make plans
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08:07
are the ones who are able
to tolerate more risk, good risk,
to tolerate more risk, good risk,
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能夠承擔更多好風險，
08:10
and deal with the bad risk.
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也能夠處理壞風險。
08:13
And it's because as we seek information,
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這是因為當我們尋找資訊，
08:16
we increase our power to do something
about the things that we're afraid of.
about the things that we're afraid of.
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我們就讓自己更有力量，
去做一些我們畏懼的事。
去做一些我們畏懼的事。
08:21
And that brings me to my third point.
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這也帶出我的第三點：
08:23
How much control do you feel that you have
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你覺得你對於人生裡的灰犀牛
08:27
over the gray rhinos in your life?
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有多少掌控了？
08:30
One of the reasons we don't act
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我們坐視不理的其中一個原因，
08:32
is that we often feel too helpless.
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是我們通常覺得太無助了。
08:35
Think of climate change,
it can feel so big,
it can feel so big,
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想想氣候變化，
會讓人覺得如此渺小。
會讓人覺得如此渺小。
08:38
that not a single one of us
could make a difference.
could make a difference.
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沒有人可以帶來甚麼改變。
08:42
So some people go about life denying it.
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有人選擇否認氣候改變，如常生活。
08:44
Other people blame everyone
except themselves.
except themselves.
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有人指責天下人皆錯，唯我除外。
08:48
Like my friend who says
he's not ever going to give up his SUV
he's not ever going to give up his SUV
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就像我的朋友說，
要待中國停止建造煤廠，
要待中國停止建造煤廠，
08:50
until they stop building
coal plants in China.
coal plants in China.
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他才會棄掉他的運動休旅車。
08:53
But we have an opportunity to change.
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但我們有機會改變。
08:56
No two of us are the same.
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我們各有不同。
08:58
Every single one of us has the opportunity
to change our attitudes,
to change our attitudes,
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每個人都可以改變自己態度，
09:03
our own and those of people around us.
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也可以改變身邊的人的態度。
09:06
So today, I want to invite all of you
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所以今天我想邀請你們所有人，
09:09
to join me in helping to spark
an open and honest conversation
an open and honest conversation
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和我一起跟身邊的人
打開天窗說亮話，
09:14
with the people around you,
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09:15
about the gray rhinos in our world,
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如實暢談自己世界裡的灰犀牛，
09:19
and be brutally honest
about how well we're dealing with them.
about how well we're dealing with them.
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開誠布公的說出
自己處理灰犀牛的效果。
自己處理灰犀牛的效果。
09:23
I hear so many times in the States,
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我在美國聽過很多這樣的話：
09:25
"Well, of course we should
deal with obvious problems,
deal with obvious problems,
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「我們當然應該
處理顯而易見的問題，
處理顯而易見的問題，
09:28
but if you don't see
what's in front of you,
what's in front of you,
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如果你看不清眼前的問題，
09:30
you're either dumb or ignorant."
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你不是笨蛋，就是無知。」
09:32
That's what they say,
and I could not disagree more.
and I could not disagree more.
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他們這句話，我真的非常不同意。
09:36
If you don't see what's in front of you,
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如果你看不清眼前的問題，
09:39
you're not dumb, you're not ignorant,
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你不是笨蛋，也不是無知。
09:42
you're human.
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你只是個平凡人而已。
09:44
And once we all recognize
that shared vulnerability,
that shared vulnerability,
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我們只要看清這世人都有的軟弱，
09:49
that gives us the power to open our eyes,
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我們就能夠睜開雙眼，
09:54
to see what's in front of us
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看到眼前的問題，
09:55
and to act before we get trampled.
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在我們被問題踐踏前行動。
10:01
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Michele Wucker - Author, policy analystMichele Wucker coined the term "gray rhino" as a metaphor for obvious risks that are neglected despite -- in fact, often because of -- their size and likelihood.
Why you should listen
Michele Wucker's term "gray rhino" has moved markets and shaped financial policies around the world. She is the author of the international bestseller The Gray Rhino: How to Recognize and Act on the Obvious Dangers We Ignore, which China's leadership has used to frame and communicate its efforts to crack down on financial risk.
Drawing on three decades of experience in financial media and think tank management, turnarounds and policy analysis, Wucker is founder of the Chicago-based strategy firm Gray Rhino & Company, which helps organizations to better manage gray rhino risks. She speaks regularly on risk management, leadership, macro strategy and decision-making for high-level global audiences. She has been recognized as a Young Global Leader of the World Economic Forum and a Guggenheim Fellow, among other honors.
Wucker's first two books, Lockout: Why America Keeps Getting Immigration Wrong When Our Prosperity Depends on Getting It Right and Why the Cocks Fight: Dominicans, Haitians, and the Struggle for Hispaniola, continue to influence policy debates.
Michele Wucker | Speaker | TED.com