TEDGlobal 2011
Pavan Sukhdev: Put a value on nature!
Pavan Sukhdev: Odredimo vrijednost prirode!
Filmed:
Readability: 4.7
753,487 views
Svakodnevn koristimo materijale nastale u zemlji bez razmišljanja, besplatno. Kad bismo, međutim, morali platiti njihovu stvarnu vrijednost - da li bi nas to učinilo pažljivijim u pogledu onoga što koristimo i šta uništavamo? Prihvatite Pavana Sukhdeva kao bankara prirode - koji procjenjuje vrijednost imovine Zemlje. Grafikoni koji će promijeniti vaše mišljenje o troškovima zraka, vode, drveća....
Pavan Sukhdev - Environmental economist
A banker by training, Pavan Sukhdev runs the numbers on greening up -- showing that green economies are an effective engine for creating jobs and creating wealth. Full bio
A banker by training, Pavan Sukhdev runs the numbers on greening up -- showing that green economies are an effective engine for creating jobs and creating wealth. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
I'm here to talk to you
0
0
2000
Ovdje sam da bih govorio
00:17
about the economic invisibility of nature.
1
2000
2000
o ekonomskoj nevidljivosti prirode.
00:19
The bad news
2
4000
2000
Loša vijest je da
00:21
is that mother nature's back office isn't working yet,
3
6000
2000
"back office" Majke Prirode još ne radi
00:23
so those invoices don't get issued.
4
8000
2000
tako da ne može izdavati fakture.
00:25
But we need to do something about this problem.
5
10000
3000
Ipak moramo učiniti nešto po tom pitanju.
00:28
I began my life as a markets professional
6
13000
3000
U životu sam počeo kao tržišni stručnjak
00:31
and continued to take an interest,
7
16000
3000
i nastavio sam se time baviti,
00:34
but most of my recent effort
8
19000
2000
ali većina mojih nedavnih napora
00:36
has been looking at the value
9
21000
2000
bio je da sagledam vrijednosti
00:38
of what comes to human beings from nature,
10
23000
2000
onoga što ljudi koriste iz prirode,
00:40
and which doesn't get priced by the markets.
11
25000
3000
i što nije tržišno vrednovano.
00:43
A project called TEEB was started in 2007,
12
28000
3000
Projekat nazvan TEEB počeo je 2007,
00:46
and it was launched by a group of environment ministers
13
31000
3000
i pokrenula ga je grupa koji su činili ministri okoliša
00:49
of the G8+5.
14
34000
2000
zemalja G8+5.
00:51
And their basic inspiration
15
36000
2000
Njiihova osnovna inspiracija
00:53
was a stern review of Lord Stern.
16
38000
2000
bio je strogi izveštaj Lorda Sterna.
00:55
They asked themselves a question:
17
40000
2000
Zapitali su sami sebe:
00:57
If economics could make such a convincing case
18
42000
2000
Ako ekonomisti mogu napravitl tako uvjeljive argumente
00:59
for early action on climate change,
19
44000
2000
za rani odgovor na klimatske promjene,
01:01
well why can't the same be done for conservation?
20
46000
2000
zašto se isto ne bi moglo uraditi za konzervaciju okoliša?
01:03
Why can't an equivalent case be made
21
48000
2000
Zašto ekvivalentan slučaj ne bi bio i
01:05
for nature?
22
50000
2000
za zaštitu prirode?
01:07
And the answer is: Yeah, it can.
23
52000
2000
I odgovor je: Pa, može.
01:09
But it's not that straightforward.
24
54000
2000
Ali to nije tako jednostavno.
01:11
Biodiversity, the living fabric of this planet, is not a gas.
25
56000
3000
Biodiverzitet, živa materija ove planete, nije plin.
01:14
It exists in many layers,
26
59000
2000
On je višeslojan,
01:16
ecosystems, species and genes across many scales --
27
61000
3000
ekosistemi, vrste i geni na različitim nivoima-
01:19
international, national, local, community --
28
64000
3000
međunarodnom, državnom, lokalnom, mjesnom-
01:22
and doing for nature
29
67000
2000
i učiniti za prirodu ono što su
01:24
what Lord Stern and his team did for nature is not that easy.
30
69000
3000
Lord Stern i njegov tim učinili za prirodu nije jednostavno.
01:27
And yet, we began.
31
72000
2000
A ipak, počeli smo.
01:29
We began the project with an interim report,
32
74000
2000
Počeli smo projekat privremenim izvještajem
01:31
which quickly pulled together
33
76000
2000
koji smo brzo pripremili
01:33
a lot of information that had been collected on the subject
34
78000
3000
i za koji je prikupljeno mnogo informacija
01:36
by many, many researchers.
35
81000
2000
uz učešće mnogo, mnogo istraživača.
01:38
And amongst our compiled results
36
83000
2000
I među prikupljenim rezultatima
01:40
was the startling revelation
37
85000
2000
bio je zapanjujuće otkriće
01:42
that, in fact, we were losing natural capital --
38
87000
3000
da, u stvari gubimo prirodni kapital - -
01:45
the benefits that flow from nature to us.
39
90000
2000
koristi koje pritiču od prirode ka nama.
01:47
We were losing it at an extraordinary rate --
40
92000
2000
Gubimo ih po nevjerovatnoj stopi-
01:49
in fact, of the order of two to four trillion dollars-worth
41
94000
3000
u stvari, u razmjeru vrijednosti od dva do četiri triliona dolara
01:52
of natural capital.
42
97000
3000
prirodnog kapitala.
01:55
This came out in 2008,
43
100000
2000
Ovo je objavljeno 2008,
01:57
which was, of course, around the time that the banking crisis had shown
44
102000
2000
što je, naravno, otprilike u vrijeme kada se pojavila i bankarska kriza
01:59
that we had lost financial capital
45
104000
2000
u kojoj smo izgubili kapital
02:01
of the order of two and a half trillion dollars.
46
106000
2000
vrijednosti od dva i pol triliona dolara.
02:03
So this was comparable in size to that kind of loss.
47
108000
3000
Dakle, ovo je bilo uporedivo sa takvim gubitkom.
02:06
We then have gone on since
48
111000
2000
Zatim smo ovo počeli
02:08
to present for [the] international community,
49
113000
3000
predstavljati međunarodnoj zajednici,
02:11
for governments,
50
116000
2000
vladama,
02:13
for local governments and for business
51
118000
2000
lokalnim upravama i preduzećima
02:15
and for people, for you and me,
52
120000
2000
i ljudima, poput vas i mene;
02:17
a whole slew of reports, which were presented at the U.N. last year,
53
122000
3000
mnoštvo izvještaja prezentiranih u UN-u prošle godine,
02:20
which address the economic invisibility of nature
54
125000
3000
bavilo se ekonomskom nevidljivošću prirode
02:23
and describe what can be done to solve it.
55
128000
2000
i opisivalo šta se može uraditi da se to ispravi.
02:25
What is this about?
56
130000
2000
O čemu se zapravo radi?
02:27
A picture that you're familiar with --
57
132000
2000
Slika koja je svima poznata--
02:29
the Amazon rainforests.
58
134000
2000
Amazonske prašume.
02:31
It's a massive store of carbon, it's an amazing store of biodiversity,
59
136000
3000
To je ogromna zaliha ugljena, zapanjujući biodiverzitet,
02:34
but what people don't really know
60
139000
2000
ali ono što ljudi ne znaju
02:36
is this also is a rain factory.
61
141000
2000
to je takođe proizvođač kiša.
02:38
Because the northeastern trade winds,
62
143000
2000
Zbog sjeveroistočnih vjetrova
02:40
as they go over the Amazonas,
63
145000
2000
koji prelaze preko Amazona,
02:42
effectively gather the water vapor.
64
147000
2000
efikasno skupljaju vodena isparenja.
02:44
Something like 20 billion tons per day of water vapor
65
149000
3000
Nešto oko 20 milijardi tona dnevno vodenih isparenja
02:47
is sucked up by the northeastern trade winds,
66
152000
3000
je usisano u sjeveroistočne tropske vjetrove,
02:50
and eventually precipitates in the form of rain
67
155000
3000
i pojavljuje se u vidu kiša
02:53
across the La Plata Basin.
68
158000
2000
na području sliva La Plate.
02:55
This rainfall cycle, this rainfall factory,
69
160000
3000
Ovo kruženje, ova fabrika kišnice,
02:58
effectively feeds an agricultural economy
70
163000
2000
efikasno hrani poljoprivrednu ekonomiju
03:00
of the order of 240 billion dollars-worth
71
165000
2000
vrijednosti 240 milijardi dolara
03:02
in Latin America.
72
167000
2000
u Latinskoj Americi.
03:04
But the question arises: Okay, so how much
73
169000
3000
Ali se postavlja pitanje: U redu, koliko onda
03:07
do Uruguay, Paraguay, Argentina
74
172000
2000
Urugvaj, Paragvaj, Argentina
03:09
and indeed the state of Mato Grosso in Brazil
75
174000
3000
i zapravo država Mato Grosso u Brazilu
03:12
pay for that vital input to that economy
76
177000
3000
plaćaju za taj važni doprinos ekonomiji
03:15
to the state of Amazonas, which produces that rainfall?
77
180000
3000
državi Amazon, koja proizvodi svu tu kišnicu?
03:18
And the answer is zilch,
78
183000
2000
I odgovor je -ništa,
03:20
exactly zero.
79
185000
2000
zapravo nula.
03:22
That's the economic invisibility of nature.
80
187000
2000
To je ekonomska nevidljivost prirode.
03:24
That can't keep going on,
81
189000
2000
To se ne može održati
03:26
because economic incentives and disincentives are very powerful.
82
191000
3000
jer ekonomski razlozi i prepreke su veoma snažne.
03:29
Economics has become the currency of policy.
83
194000
2000
Ekonomija je postala valuta politike.
03:31
And unless we address
84
196000
2000
I dok ne odgovorimo
03:33
this invisibility,
85
198000
2000
na ovu nevidljivost,
03:35
we are going to get the results that we are seeing,
86
200000
2000
nastavićemo dobijati rezultate koje sada vidimo,
03:37
which is a gradual degradation and loss
87
202000
3000
odnosno postepenu degradaciju i gubitke
03:40
of this valuable natural asset.
88
205000
2000
ove vrijedne prirodne imovine.
03:42
It's not just about the Amazonas, or indeed about rainforests.
89
207000
3000
Ne radi se ramo o Amazonu, ili o prašumama.
03:45
No matter what level you look at,
90
210000
2000
Nije važne gdje pogledate,
03:47
whether it's at the ecosystem level or at the species level or at the genetic level,
91
212000
3000
bilo da se radi o nivou ekosistema, vrsta ili genetskom nivou,
03:50
we see the same problem again and again.
92
215000
3000
vidimo isti problem uvijek iznova.
03:53
So rainfall cycle and water regulation by rainforests
93
218000
3000
Isto važi i za kruženje vode i regulaciju putem prašuma
03:56
at an ecosystem level.
94
221000
2000
na nivou ekosistema.
03:58
At the species level,
95
223000
2000
Na nivou vrsta,
04:00
it's been estimated that insect-based pollination,
96
225000
2000
procjenjuje se da oprašivanje koje vrše insekti
04:02
bees pollinating fruit and so on,
97
227000
3000
kao što pčele oprašuju cvjetove voća i slično
04:05
is something like 190 billion dollars-worth.
98
230000
3000
ima vrijednost od oko 190 milijardi dolara.
04:08
That's something like eight percent
99
233000
2000
To predstavlja oko osam procenata
04:10
of the total agricultural output globally.
100
235000
4000
ukupnog poljoprivrednog proizvoda na globalnom nivou.
04:14
It completely passes below the radar screen.
101
239000
2000
Prolazi "ispod radara" u potpunosti.
04:16
But when did a bee actually ever give you an invoice?
102
241000
3000
Ali, da li vam je pčela ikad ispostavila fakturu?
04:19
Or for that matter, if you look at the genetic level,
103
244000
3000
Ili, u tom smislu, ako se osvrnemo na nivou genetike
04:22
60 percent of medicines were prospected,
104
247000
3000
60 procenata ispitanih lijekova
04:25
were found first as molecules in a rainforest or a reef.
105
250000
3000
pronađeni su prvo kao molekule u prašumama ili na grebenima
04:28
Once again, most of that doesn't get paid.
106
253000
2000
I opet, većina od toga se ne plaća.
04:30
And that brings me to another aspect of this,
107
255000
2000
I to me dovodi do drugog aspekta priče,
04:32
which is, to whom should this get paid?
108
257000
3000
koje glasi, kome bi se to i trebalo platiti?
04:35
That genetic material
109
260000
2000
Taj genetički materijal
04:37
probably belonged, if it could belong to anyone,
110
262000
2000
vjerovatno pripada, ako bi trebao ikome pripadati,
04:39
to a local community of poor people
111
264000
2000
lokalnoj zajednici siromašnih ljudi
04:41
who parted with the knowledge that helped the researchers to find the molecule,
112
266000
3000
koji su učestvovali sa svojim znanjem koje je pomoglo istraživačima da pronađu molekule,
04:44
which then became the medicine.
113
269000
2000
koje su postale lijekovi.
04:46
They were the ones that didn't get paid.
114
271000
2000
Oni su ti koji nisu plaćeni.
04:48
And if you look at the species level,
115
273000
3000
I ako pogledate na nivo vrsta,
04:51
you saw about fish.
116
276000
2000
recimo, riba.
04:53
Today, the depletion of ocean fisheries is so significant
117
278000
3000
Danas, trošenje zaliha ribe u okeanima je tako značajno
04:56
that effectively it is effecting the ability of the poor,
118
281000
4000
da utiče na mogućnosti siromašnih,
05:00
the artisanal fisher folk
119
285000
2000
ribara po zanimanju
05:02
and those who fish for their own livelihoods,
120
287000
2000
i onih koji love ribu za svoja domaćinstva,
05:04
to feed their families.
121
289000
2000
da osiguraju egzistenciju.
05:06
Something like a billion people depend on fish,
122
291000
2000
Oko milijarde ljudi zavisi od ribe,
05:08
the quantity of fish in the oceans.
123
293000
2000
odnosno količine ribe u okeanima.
05:10
A billion people depend on fish
124
295000
3000
milijarda ljudi zavisi od ribe
05:13
for their main source for animal protein.
125
298000
2000
kao osnovnog izvora proteina u ishrani.
05:15
And at this rate at which we are losing fish,
126
300000
2000
I po stopi po kojoj gubimo ribu,
05:17
it is a human problem of enormous dimensions,
127
302000
2000
to postaje problem čovječanstva ogromnih razmjera,
05:19
a health problem
128
304000
2000
zdravstveni problem
05:21
of a kind we haven't seen before.
129
306000
3000
kakav još nismo vidjeli.
05:24
And finally, at the ecosystem level,
130
309000
2000
I na kraju, na nivou ekosistema,
05:26
whether it's flood prevention or drought control provided by the forests,
131
311000
3000
bez obzira da li je u pitanju prevencija poplava ili kontrola suše kakvu pružaju prašume,
05:29
or whether it is the ability of poor farmers
132
314000
2000
i da li siromašni farmeri mogu
05:31
to go out and gather leaf litter
133
316000
2000
izaći i prikupiti hrpu lišća
05:33
for their cattle and goats,
134
318000
2000
za njihovu stoku i koze,
05:35
or whether it's the ability of their wives
135
320000
2000
i da li su njihove žene u mogućnosti
05:37
to go and collect fuel wood from the forest,
136
322000
2000
izaći i prikupiti drvo za ogrev iz šume,
05:39
it is actually the poor
137
324000
2000
u principu su siromašni
05:41
who depend most on these ecosystem services.
138
326000
2000
oni koji najviše zavise od usluga ovih ekosistema.
05:43
We did estimates in our study
139
328000
2000
Mi smo u našoj studiji procijenili
05:45
that for countries like Brazil, India and Indonesia,
140
330000
3000
da zemlje poput Brazila, Indije i Indonezije,
05:48
even though ecosystem services --
141
333000
2000
kroz usluge svojih ekosistema--
05:50
these benefits that flow from nature to humanity for free --
142
335000
3000
koristi koje dolaze iz prirode čovječanstvu besplatno--
05:53
they're not very big in percentage terms of GDP --
143
338000
2000
nisu veoma velike u procentualnim iznosima GDP-a
05:55
two, four, eight, 10, 15 percent --
144
340000
2000
dva, četiri, šest, 10,15 procenata--
05:57
but in these countries, if we measure how much they're worth to the poor,
145
342000
3000
ali u ovim zemljama, ako mjerimo koliko oni vrijede siromašnima,
06:00
the answers are more like
146
345000
2000
odgovoro su bliže
06:02
45 percent, 75 percent, 90 percent.
147
347000
3000
45 procenata, 75 ili čak 90 procenata.
06:05
That's the difference.
148
350000
2000
U tome je razlika.
06:07
Because these are important benefits for the poor.
149
352000
3000
Jer su oni važni za siromašne.
06:10
And you can't really have a proper model for development
150
355000
3000
I ne možete zaista napraviti odgovarajući model za razvoj
06:13
if at the same time you're destroying or allowing
151
358000
3000
ako istovremeno uništavate ili dozvoljavate
06:16
the degradation of the very asset, the most important asset,
152
361000
3000
degradaciju imovine, veoma važne imovine,
06:19
which is your development asset,
153
364000
2000
koja je vaša razvojna imovina,
06:21
that is ecological infrastructure.
154
366000
2000
a to je ekološka infrastruktura.
06:23
How bad can things get?
155
368000
2000
Koliko se situacija može pogoršati?
06:25
Well here a picture of something called the mean species abundance.
156
370000
3000
Ovdje imamo ilustraciju nečega nazvanog prosječno mnoštvo vrsta.
06:28
It's basically a measure
157
373000
2000
U principu to je mjera
06:30
of how many tigers, toads, ticks or whatever on average
158
375000
2000
koliko tigrova, žaba krastača, krpelja itd u prosjeku
06:32
of biomass of various species are around.
159
377000
3000
biomase raznih vrsta postoji.
06:35
The green represents the percentage.
160
380000
2000
Zeleno predstavlja procente.
06:37
If you start green, it's like 80 to 100 percent.
161
382000
3000
Ako počinjete zeleno, to je kao 80 ili 100 procenata.
06:40
If it's yellow, it's 40 to 60 percent.
162
385000
2000
Žuto predstavlja 40 do 60 procenata.
06:42
And these are percentages versus the original state, so to speak,
163
387000
2000
I ovo su procenti u odnosu na početno stanje, da tako kažemo,
06:44
the pre-industrial era, 1750.
164
389000
3000
u preindustrijskoj eri, 1750.
06:47
Now I'm going to show you
165
392000
2000
Sada ću vam pokazati
06:49
how business as usual will affect this.
166
394000
2000
kako ignorantsko ponašanje utiče na ovo.
06:51
And just watch the change in colors
167
396000
2000
I samo gledajte promjenu boja
06:53
in India, China, Europe,
168
398000
2000
u Indiji, Kini, Evropi,
06:55
sub-Saharan Africa
169
400000
2000
sub-Saharskoj Africi
06:57
as we move on and consume global biomass
170
402000
3000
kako se krećemo i trošimo globalnu biomasu.
07:00
at a rate which is actually not going to be able to sustain us.
171
405000
4000
po stopi koja nas u svari ne može održati.
07:04
See that again.
172
409000
2000
Pogledajte ponovo.
07:06
The only places that remain green -- and that's not good news --
173
411000
2000
Jedino mjesto koje ostaje zeleno--i to nije dobra vijest--
07:08
is, in fact, places like the Gobi Desert,
174
413000
3000
su u stvari mjesta poput pustinje Gobi,
07:11
like the tundra and like the Sahara.
175
416000
2000
tundra i poput Sahare.
07:13
But that doesn't help because there were very few species
176
418000
2000
Ali to ne pomaže jer tamo je i bilo veoma malo vrsta
07:15
and volume of biomass there in the first place.
177
420000
2000
i obim biomase je bio mali i na početku.
07:17
This is the challenge.
178
422000
2000
To je izazov.
07:19
The reason this is happening
179
424000
3000
Razlog zašto se to dešava
07:22
boils down, in my mind, to one basic problem,
180
427000
3000
svodi se, po mom mišljenju, na osnovni problem,
07:25
which is our inability to perceive the difference
181
430000
2000
koji je naša nesposobnost da vidimo razliku
07:27
between public benefits
182
432000
2000
između javnog dobra
07:29
and private profits.
183
434000
2000
i privatnog profita.
07:31
We tend to constantly ignore public wealth
184
436000
3000
Težimo ka tome da konstantno ignorišemo javnu dobrobit
07:34
simply because it is in the common wealth,
185
439000
2000
jednostavno jer to pripada svima,
07:36
it's common goods.
186
441000
2000
jer je za opštu upotrebu.
07:38
And here's an example from Thailand
187
443000
2000
I ovdje je primjer s Tajlanda
07:40
where we found that, because the value of a mangrove is not that much --
188
445000
4000
gdje smo pronašli, jer vrijednost mangrova nije tako velika--
07:44
it's about $600 over the life of nine years that this has been measured --
189
449000
4000
jeste 600 dolara kroz životni vijek od devet godina koliko je to mjereno--
07:48
compared to its value as a shrimp farm,
190
453000
2000
u poređenju sa njegovom vrijednošću u vidu uzgajališta škampa
07:50
which is more like $9,600,
191
455000
2000
kada raste do 9.600 dolara
07:52
there has been a gradual trend to deplete the mangroves
192
457000
3000
postoji postepeni trend iskorjenjivanja mongrova
07:55
and convert them to shrimp farms.
193
460000
2000
i njihovog pretvaranja u farme škampa.
07:57
But of course, if you look at exactly what those profits are,
194
462000
4000
Naravno, ako gledamo jednostavno o kolikom profitu se radi,
08:01
almost 8,000 of those dollars
195
466000
2000
oko 8.000 tih dolara
08:03
are, in fact, subsidies.
196
468000
2000
su, u stvari, subvencije.
08:05
So you compare the two sides of the coin
197
470000
3000
Tako, kada uporedite dvije strane medalje
08:08
and you find that it's more like 1,200 to 600.
198
473000
2000
vidjećete da se radi o poređenju 1.200 sa 600.
08:10
That's not that hard.
199
475000
2000
To nije tako teško.
08:12
But on the other hand, if you start measuring,
200
477000
2000
Ali, sa druge strane, ako počnemo mjeriti,
08:14
how much would it actually cost
201
479000
2000
koliko bi to zapravo koštalo
08:16
to restore the land of the shrimp farm
202
481000
2000
da se zemljište koje se koristi za farmu škampa
08:18
back to productive use?
203
483000
2000
vrati za proizvodnu namjenu?
08:20
Once salt deposition and chemical deposition
204
485000
2000
Kada izloženost solima i hemijskim tvarima
08:22
has had its effects,
205
487000
2000
napravi svoje efekte,
08:24
that answer is more like $12,000 of cost.
206
489000
3000
odgovor je da trošak dostiže 12.000 dolara
08:27
And if you see the benefits of the mangrove
207
492000
2000
I ako vidite koristi mangrova
08:29
in terms of the storm protection and cyclone protection that you get
208
494000
3000
u smislu zaštite od oluja i ciklonske zaštite koju dobijate
08:32
and in terms of the fisheries, the fish nurseries,
209
497000
2000
i u smislu ribarenja, ribogojilišta,
08:34
that provide fish for the poor,
210
499000
2000
koji hrane siromašne,
08:36
that answer is more like $11,000.
211
501000
2000
tada je odgovor bilži 11.000 dolara.
08:38
So now look at the different lens.
212
503000
2000
Pogledajmo sada kroz drzgačiju prizmu.
08:40
If you look at the lens of public wealth
213
505000
2000
Ako posmatrate javno dobro
08:42
as against the lens of private profits,
214
507000
2000
nasuprot gledištu privatnog profita,
08:44
you get a completely different answer,
215
509000
2000
dobijate potpuno drugačiji odgovor,
08:46
which is clearly conservation makes more sense,
216
511000
3000
koji je da zaštita ima više smisla,
08:49
and not destruction.
217
514000
2000
nego uništavanje.
08:51
So is this just a story from South Thailand?
218
516000
3000
Dakle, da li je ovo priča iz Južnog Tajlanda?
08:54
Sorry, this is a global story.
219
519000
2000
Žao mi je, ovo je globalna priča.
08:56
And here's what the same calculation looks like,
220
521000
2000
I ovdje vidimo kako bi ista kalkulacija izgledala,
08:58
which was done recently -- well I say recently, over the last 10 years --
221
523000
3000
urađena je nedavno--recimo, u zadnjih desetak godina--
09:01
by a group called TRUCOST.
222
526000
2000
u grupi zvanoj TRUCOST.
09:03
And they calculated for the top 3,000 corporations,
223
528000
2000
Oni su uzeli u obzir najvećih 300 korporacija,
09:05
what are the externalities?
224
530000
2000
i šta su procjene?
09:07
In other words, what are the costs of doing business as usual?
225
532000
2000
Drugim riječima, koji su troškovi nečinjenja?
09:09
This is not illegal stuff, this is basically business as usual,
226
534000
3000
Ovdje se ne radi o nečemu ilegalnom, ovo je zapravo nastavak uobičajane prakse
09:12
which causes climate-changing emissions, which have an economic cost.
227
537000
3000
koja uzrokuje emisije koje utiču na klimatske promjene, koje imaju ekonomsku vrijednost.
09:15
It causes pollutants being issued, which have an economic cost,
228
540000
3000
Uzrokuje zagađenje, koje ima ekonomsku vrijednost,
09:18
health cost and so on.
229
543000
2000
troškove zdravstva i tako dalje.
09:20
Use of freshwater.
230
545000
2000
Korištenje pitke vode.
09:22
If you drill water to make coke near a village farm,
231
547000
2000
Ako pravite bunar da proizvodite koks blizu seoske farme,
09:24
that's not illegal, but yes, it costs the community.
232
549000
2000
to nije ilegalno, ali da, to košta zajednicu.
09:26
Can we stop this, and how?
233
551000
2000
Možemo li ovo zaustaviti, i kako?
09:28
I think the first point to make is that we need to recognize natural capital.
234
553000
3000
MIslim da je prvi korak koji treba učiniti vrednovanje prirodnog kapitala.
09:31
Basically the stuff of life is natural capital,
235
556000
3000
U principu, prirodni kapital je životna supstanca,
09:34
and we need to recognize and build that into our systems.
236
559000
3000
i to treba prepoznati i ugraditi u naše sisteme.
09:37
When we measure GDP
237
562000
2000
Kada mjerimo GDP
09:39
as a measure of economic performance at the national level,
238
564000
2000
kao pokazatelj ekonomski performansi na državnom nivou,
09:41
we don't include our biggest asset at the country level.
239
566000
3000
ne uključujemo najveću imovinu koju zemlja ima.
09:44
When we measure corporate performances,
240
569000
2000
Kada mjerimo performanse kompanija,
09:46
we don't include our impacts on nature
241
571000
2000
ne uključujemo uticaj na prirodu
09:48
and what our business costs society.
242
573000
2000
i troškove koje kompanije uzrokuju društvu.
09:50
That has to stop.
243
575000
2000
To mora prestati.
09:52
In fact, this was what really inspired my interest in this phase.
244
577000
3000
U stvari, to je zaista inspirisalo moj interes u ovoj fazi.
09:55
I began a project way back called the Green Accounting Project.
245
580000
2000
Počeo sam projekat nazvan Projekat zelenog računovodstva.
09:57
That was in the early 2000s
246
582000
2000
To je bilo početkom 2000-tih
09:59
when India was going gung-ho about GDP growth
247
584000
3000
kada je Indija bila zaluđena rastom GDP-a
10:02
as the means forward --
248
587000
2000
kao sredstvom napretka--
10:04
looking at China with its stellar growths of eight, nine, 10 percent
249
589000
2000
gledajući kako Kina ima visoke stope raste of osam, devet, deset procenata
10:06
and wondering, why can we do the same?
250
591000
2000
i pitajući se, možemo li i mi isto tako?
10:08
And a few friends of mine and I
251
593000
2000
Nekoliko mojih prijatelja i ja
10:10
decided this doesn't make sense.
252
595000
2000
zaključili smo da to nema smisla.
10:12
This is going to create more cost to society and more losses.
253
597000
3000
To će koštati društvo mnogo više i uzrokovati gubitke.
10:15
So we decided to do a massive set of calculations
254
600000
2000
Zato smo odlučili uraditi ogromnu kalkulaciju
10:17
and started producing green accounts for India and its states.
255
602000
3000
i počeli praviti zelena konta za Indiju i njene pokrajine.
10:20
That's how my interests began
256
605000
2000
Tako je počeo moj interes
10:22
and went to the TEEB project.
257
607000
2000
i razvio se u TEEB projekat
10:24
Calculating this at the national level is one thing, and it has begun.
258
609000
3000
Kalkulacija ovoga na državnom nivou je jedan dio toga, i to je već započeto.
10:27
And the World Bank has acknowledged this
259
612000
2000
Svjetska banka je ovo prepoznala
10:29
and they've started a project called WAVES --
260
614000
2000
i oni su počeli projekat WAVES--
10:31
Wealth Accounting and Valuation of Ecosystem Services.
261
616000
2000
Svjetsko računovodstvo i vrednovanje usluga ekosistema.
10:33
But calculating this at the next level,
262
618000
2000
Ali kalkulacijom ovoga na sljedećem nivou.
10:35
that means at the business sector level, is important.
263
620000
2000
to znači na nivou poslovnog sektora, je važno.
10:37
And actually we've done this with the TEEB project.
264
622000
2000
I to smo u stvari uradili sa ovim TEEB projektom.
10:39
We've done this for a very difficult case,
265
624000
3000
Učinili smo to za sasvim drugi slučaj,
10:42
which was for deforestation in China.
266
627000
2000
koji je deforestacija u Kini.
10:44
This is important, because in China in 1997,
267
629000
3000
To je važno, jer u Kini 1997,
10:47
the Yellow River actually went dry for nine months
268
632000
3000
Žuta rijeka je presušila tokom devet mjeseci
10:50
causing severe loss of agriculture output
269
635000
2000
uzrokujući ogromne gubitke poljoprivredne proizvodnje
10:52
and pain and loss to society.
270
637000
2000
i bolne gubitke društvu.
10:54
Just a year later the Yangtze flooded,
271
639000
2000
Samo godinu dana nakon toga Jangce je poplavio,
10:56
causing something like 5,500 deaths.
272
641000
3000
uzrokujući smrt oko 5000 ljudi.
10:59
So clearly there was a problem with deforestation.
273
644000
2000
Bilo je jasno da postoji problem deforestacije.
11:01
It was associated largely with the construction industry.
274
646000
3000
Bio je povezan uglavnom sa sektorom graditeljstva.
11:04
And the Chinese government responded sensibly
275
649000
2000
I Kineska vlada je postupila smisleno
11:06
and placed a ban on felling.
276
651000
2000
i zabranila sječu.
11:08
A retrospective on 40 years
277
653000
2000
Retrospektiva kroz 40 godina
11:10
shows that if we had accounted for these costs --
278
655000
4000
pokazuje da, kad bismo uračunali ove troškove--
11:14
the cost of loss of topsoil,
279
659000
2000
troškove gubitka površinskog sloja tla
11:16
the cost of loss of waterways,
280
661000
2000
troškove gubitka vodene mase
11:18
the lost productivity, the loss to local communities
281
663000
3000
izgubljena produktivnost, trošak za lokalne zajednice
11:21
as a result of all these factors,
282
666000
2000
kao rezultat ovih faktora,
11:23
desertification and so on --
283
668000
2000
dezertifikacija i tako dalje--
11:25
those costs are almost twice as much
284
670000
2000
troškovi bi vili dvostruko veći
11:27
as the market price of timber.
285
672000
2000
od tržišne vrijednosti balvana
11:29
So in fact, the price of timber in the Beijing marketplace
286
674000
3000
Tako da , u stvari, cijena drveta na tržištu Beijinga
11:32
ought to have been three-times what it was
287
677000
2000
mora biti trostruko veća
11:34
had it reflected the true pain and the costs
288
679000
3000
da bi odrazila stvari bol i trošak
11:37
to the society within China.
289
682000
2000
društva u Kini.
11:39
Of course, after the event one can be wise.
290
684000
3000
Naravno, lako je naknadno biti pametan.
11:42
The way to do this is to do it on a company basis,
291
687000
2000
Način da se to uradi je na nivou kompanije,
11:44
to take leadership forward,
292
689000
2000
da se preuzme vodstvo,
11:46
and to do it for as many important sectors which have a cost,
293
691000
3000
i da se to uradti u mnogim važnim sektorima koji imaju trošak,
11:49
and to disclose these answers.
294
694000
2000
i da se objave ti odgovori.
11:51
Someone once asked me, "Who is better or worse,
295
696000
2000
Neko me pitao, ko je bolji li gori
11:53
is it Unilever or is it P&G
296
698000
2000
da li je to Unilever ili P&G
11:55
when it comes to their impact on rainforests in Indonesia?"
297
700000
3000
Kad se radi o njihovom uticaju na prašume u Indoneziji.
11:58
And I couldn't answer because neither of these companies,
298
703000
2000
Nisam mogao odgovoriti jer ni jedna od pomenutih kompanija,
12:00
good though they are and professional though they are,
299
705000
2000
iako su dobre i profesionalne,
12:02
do not calculate or disclose their externalities.
300
707000
3000
ne radi kalkulaciju niti objavljuje eksternalije.
12:05
But if we look at companies like PUMA --
301
710000
2000
Ali ako pogledamo kopmanije kao što je PUMA--
12:07
Jochen Zeitz, their CEO and chairman,
302
712000
2000
Jochen Zeitz, njihov direktor i predsjednik Uprave,
12:09
once challenged me at a function,
303
714000
2000
jednom me izazvao na funkciji,
12:11
saying that he's going to implement my project before I finish it.
304
716000
3000
govoreći da će implementirati moj projekat prije nego što ga završim.
12:14
Well I think we kind of did it at the same time, but he's done it.
305
719000
3000
Pa, ja sam mislio da smo ga uradili istovremeno, ali ga je on uradio.
12:17
He's basically worked the cost to PUMA.
306
722000
2000
Zapravo je obradio troškove za PUMU.
12:19
PUMA has 2.7 billion dollars of turnover,
307
724000
2000
PUMA ima 2,7 milijardi dolara obrta,
12:21
300 million dollars of profits,
308
726000
2000
300 miliona dolara dobiti,
12:23
200 million dollars after tax,
309
728000
2000
200 miliiona dolara nakon oporezivanja,
12:25
94 million dollars of externalities, cost to business.
310
730000
3000
94 miliona dolara eksternalija, troškova za biznis.
12:28
Now that's not a happy situation for them,
311
733000
2000
Sada to nije zadovoljavajuća situacija za njih,
12:30
but they have the confidence and the courage
312
735000
2000
ali su imali smjelosti i samouvjerenosti
12:32
to come forward and say, "Here's what we are measuring.
313
737000
3000
da izađu pred javnost i kažu:"Ovo smo izračunali.
12:35
We are measuring it because we know
314
740000
2000
Mi to mjerimo jer znamo
12:37
that you cannot manage what you do not measure."
315
742000
2000
da se nemože upravljati onim što se ne izmjeri."
12:39
That's an example, I think, for us to look at
316
744000
2000
To je jedan primjer, mislim, za nas da se ugledamo
12:41
and for us to draw comfort from.
317
746000
2000
i da se oslonimo na njega.
12:43
If more companies did this,
318
748000
2000
Kada bi više kompanija ovo radilo,
12:45
and if more sectors engaged this as sectors,
319
750000
2000
i ako bi se više sektora uključilo na nivou sektora,
12:47
you could have analysts, business analysts,
320
752000
2000
mogli biste imali analitičare, poslovne analitičare,
12:49
and you could have people like us and consumers and NGOs
321
754000
3000
i mogli biste imati ljude poput nas i potrošače i udruženja
12:52
actually look and compare the social performance of companies.
322
757000
3000
zaista posmatrajući društvene performanse kompanija.
12:55
Today we can't yet do that, but I think the path is laid out.
323
760000
3000
Danas to još ne možemo uraditi, ali mislim da je put iscrtan.
12:58
This can be done.
324
763000
2000
To se može uraditi.
13:00
And I'm delighted that the Institute of Chartered Accountants in the U.K.
325
765000
2000
Veoma mi je drago da je Institut profesionalnih računovođa u Velikoj Britaniji
13:02
has already set up a coalition to do this,
326
767000
2000
već osnovao koaliciju da ovo uradi,
13:04
an international coalition.
327
769000
2000
međunarodnu koaliciju.
13:06
The other favorite, if you like, solution for me
328
771000
3000
Drugo poželjno, ako dozvolite, rješenje po momo mišljenju
13:09
is the creation of green carbon markets.
329
774000
2000
je kreiranje tržišta zelenog ugljika.
13:11
And by the way, these are my favorites --
330
776000
2000
I usput, ovo su moji favoriti--
13:13
externalities calculation and green carbon markets.
331
778000
2000
kalkulacija eksternalija i tržišta zelenog ugljika.
13:15
TEEB has more than a dozen separate groups of solutions
332
780000
4000
TEEB ima više od tuceta različitih grupa rješenja
13:19
including protected area evaluation
333
784000
2000
uključujući procjenu zaštićenih zona
13:21
and payments for ecosystem services
334
786000
2000
i plaćanje za usluge ekosistema.
13:23
and eco-certification and you name it, but these are the favorites.
335
788000
3000
i eko-certifikacija i šta god još, a ovo su moji favoriti.
13:26
What's green carbon?
336
791000
2000
Šta je zeleni ugljik?
13:28
Today what we have is basically a brown carbon marketplace.
337
793000
2000
Ono što danas postoji su tržišta smeđeg ugljka.
13:30
It's about energy emissions.
338
795000
2000
Radi se o emisiji energije.
13:32
The European Union ETS is the main marketplace.
339
797000
2000
ETS Evropske unije je najveće tržište.
13:34
It's not doing too well. We've over-issued.
340
799000
2000
Ne funkcioniše baš najbolje. Previše trošimo.
13:36
A bit like inflation: you over-issue currency,
341
801000
2000
Nešto kao inflacija: previše izdajete valute,
13:38
you get what you see, declining prices.
342
803000
3000
i desi se rezultat u smanjenju njihovih cijena.
13:41
But that's all about energy and industry.
343
806000
3000
Ali radi se o energiji i industriji.
13:44
But what we're missing is also some other emissions
344
809000
2000
A ono što nam nedostaje su neke druge emisije
13:46
like black carbon, that is soot.
345
811000
2000
kao crni ugljik, to je čađ.
13:48
What we're also missing is blue carbon,
346
813000
2000
Šta još nedostaje je plavi ugljik,
13:50
which, by the way, is the largest store of carbon --
347
815000
2000
koji je, u stvari, najveća zaliha ugljika--
13:52
more than 55 percent.
348
817000
2000
više od 55 procenata.
13:54
Thankfully, the flux, in other words, the flow of emissions
349
819000
2000
Srećom, tok, ili drugačije rečeno emisija
13:56
from the ocean to the atmosphere and vice versa,
350
821000
2000
iz okeana u atmosferu i obratno,
13:58
is more or less balanced.
351
823000
2000
je više ili manje balansirana.
14:00
In fact, what's being absorbed
352
825000
2000
U stvari, ono što se apsorbuje
14:02
is something like 25 percent of our emissions,
353
827000
3000
je oko 25 procenata naših emisija,
14:05
which then leads to acidification
354
830000
2000
koji zatim vode do kiselosti
14:07
or lower alkalinity in oceans.
355
832000
2000
ili prekomjerne bazičnosti u okenima.
14:09
More of that in a minute.
356
834000
2000
Više o tome za minut.
14:11
And finally, there's deforestation,
357
836000
2000
I na kraju, tu je deforestacija,
14:13
and there's emission of methane
358
838000
2000
i tu je misija metana
14:15
from agriculture.
359
840000
2000
iz poljoprivrede.
14:17
Green carbon,
360
842000
2000
Zeleni ugljik,
14:19
which is the deforestation and agricultural emissions,
361
844000
2000
koji je deforestacija i poljopriredne emisije,
14:21
and blue carbon
362
846000
2000
i plavi ugljik
14:23
together comprise 25 percent of our emissions.
363
848000
2000
zajedno čine 25 procenata naših emisija.
14:25
We have the means already in our hands,
364
850000
2000
Imamo sredstva već u našim rukama
14:27
through a structure, through a mechanism, called REDD Plus --
365
852000
2000
kroz strukturu, kroz mehanizam, nazvan REDD Plus--
14:29
a scheme for the reduced emissions
366
854000
2000
šemu za smanjenje emisija
14:31
from deforestation and forest degradation.
367
856000
3000
od deforestacije i uništavanja šuma.
14:34
And already Norway has contributed a billion dollars each
368
859000
3000
I već je Norveška dala doprinos od po milijardu dolara za svaki
14:37
towards Indonesia and Brazil
369
862000
2000
prema Indoneziji i Brazilu
14:39
to implement this Red Plus scheme.
370
864000
2000
da implementiraju Red Plus šemu.
14:41
So we actually have some movement forward.
371
866000
2000
Tako da sad imamo momentum.
14:43
But the thing is to do a lot more of that.
372
868000
2000
Ali bitno je učiniti više od toga.
14:45
Will this solve the problem? Will economics solve everything?
373
870000
3000
Hoće li ovo riješiti problem? Hoće li ekonomija riješiti sve?
14:48
Well I'm afraid not.
374
873000
2000
Bojim se da neće.
14:50
There is an area that is the oceans, coral reefs.
375
875000
3000
Tu je i područje okeana, koraljnih grebena.
14:53
As you can see,
376
878000
2000
Kao što možete vidjeti,
14:55
they cut across the entire globe
377
880000
2000
prostiru se širom zemaljske kugle
14:57
all the way from Micronesia
378
882000
2000
sve od Mikronezije
14:59
across Indonesia, Malaysia, India, Madagascar
379
884000
3000
preko Indonezije, Malezije, Indije, Madagaskara
15:02
and to the West of the Caribbean.
380
887000
2000
do zapada na Karibima.
15:04
These red dots, these red areas,
381
889000
2000
Ove crvene tačke, ta crvena područja,
15:06
basically provide the food and livelihood
382
891000
2000
u stvari pružaju hranu i preživljavanje
15:08
for more than half a billion people.
383
893000
2000
za više od pola milijarde ljudi.
15:10
So that's almost an eighth of society.
384
895000
3000
Znači, to je skoro osmina društva.
15:13
And the sad thing is that, as these coral reefs are lost --
385
898000
3000
I tužno je da, kada bismo izgubili te koraljne grebene--
15:16
and scientists tell us
386
901000
2000
a naučnici nam kažu
15:18
that any level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere above 350 parts per million
387
903000
3000
da bilo koji nivo ugljen dioksida u atmosferi iznad 350 dijelova na milion
15:21
is too dangerous for the survival of these reefs --
388
906000
3000
je suviše opasan za opstanak ovih grebena--
15:24
we are not only risking the extinction
389
909000
2000
ne samo da rizikujemo istrebljenje
15:26
of the entire coral species, the warm water corals,
390
911000
2000
čitave vrste koralja, toplovodne koralje,
15:28
we're not only risking a fourth of all fish species which are in the oceans,
391
913000
4000
ne rizikujemo samo četvrtinu ribljih vrsta koji su u okeanima,
15:32
but we are risking the very lives and livelihoods
392
917000
2000
nego rizikujemo i same živote i egzistenciju
15:34
of more than 500 million people
393
919000
3000
više od 500 miliona ljudi
15:37
who live in the developing world in poor countries.
394
922000
3000
koji žive su siromašnim zemljama u razvoju.
15:40
So in selecting targets of 450 parts per million
395
925000
3000
Tako da odabir cilja na 450 dijelova od milion
15:43
and selecting two degrees at the climate negotiations,
396
928000
3000
i odabir dva stepena na klimatskim pregovorima,
15:46
what we have done is we've made an ethical choice.
397
931000
3000
što smo učinili je bio etički izbor.
15:49
We've actually kind of made an ethical choice in society
398
934000
3000
Učinili smo zapravo etički izbor u društvu
15:52
to not have coral reefs.
399
937000
2000
da nemamo koraljne grebene.
15:54
Well what I will say to you in parting
400
939000
2000
Zapravo što vam ja kažem djelimično je
15:56
is that we may have done that.
401
941000
2000
da smo to mogli uraditi.
15:58
Let's think about it and what it means,
402
943000
2000
Razmislimo o tome i šta to znači,
16:00
but please, let's not do more of that.
403
945000
2000
ali, ne činimo to više.
16:02
Because mother nature only has that much
404
947000
2000
Jer Majka Priroda ima samo toliko
16:04
in ecological infrastructure and that much natural capital.
405
949000
3000
u ekološkoj infrastrukturi i toliko prirodnog kapitala.
16:07
I don't think we can afford too much of such ethical choices.
406
952000
3000
Mislim da ne možemo priuštiti mnogo ovakvih etičkih odabira.
16:10
Thank you.
407
955000
2000
Hvala.
16:12
(Applause)
408
957000
12000
(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Pavan Sukhdev - Environmental economistA banker by training, Pavan Sukhdev runs the numbers on greening up -- showing that green economies are an effective engine for creating jobs and creating wealth.
Why you should listen
In 2008, Sukhdev took a sabbatical from Deutsche Bank, where he'd worked for fifteen years, to write up two massive and convincing reports on the green economy. For UNEP, his “Green Economy Report” synthesized years of research to show, with real numbers, that environmentally sound development is not a bar to growth but rather a new engine for growing wealth and creating employment in the face of persistent poverty. The groundbreaking TEEB (formally “The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity”) report counts the global economic benefits of biodiversity. It encourages countries to develop and publish “Natural capital accounts” tracking the value of plants, animal, water and other “natural wealth” alongside traditional financial measures in the hope of changing how decisions are made. In his book, Corporation 2020, he envisions tomorrow’s corporations as agents of an inclusive, green economy. He is now the CEO of Gist Advisory, a sustainability consulting firm.
Pavan Sukhdev | Speaker | TED.com