TEDGlobal 2011
Pavan Sukhdev: Put a value on nature!
Pavan Sukhdev: Odredite vrijednost prirode!
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Svaki dan besplatno koristimo materijale iz zemlje bez razmišljanja. No što kada bismo trebali platiti za njihovu pravu vrijednost? Bismo li bili pažljiviji oko toga što koristimo i bacamo? Mislite o Pavanu Sukhdevu kao bankaru prirode -- određujući vrijednost Zemljinih vrijednosti. Grafovi koji otvaraju oči će vas natjerati da drugačije razmišljate o cijeni zraka, vode, drveća ...
Pavan Sukhdev - Environmental economist
A banker by training, Pavan Sukhdev runs the numbers on greening up -- showing that green economies are an effective engine for creating jobs and creating wealth. Full bio
A banker by training, Pavan Sukhdev runs the numbers on greening up -- showing that green economies are an effective engine for creating jobs and creating wealth. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
I'm here to talk to you
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Ovdje sam kako bih vam pričao
00:17
about the economic invisibility of nature.
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o ekonomskoj nevidljivosti prirode.
00:19
The bad news
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Loša vijest je
00:21
is that mother nature's back office isn't working yet,
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da ured majke prirode još nije proradio
00:23
so those invoices don't get issued.
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pa svi računi ne prolaze.
00:25
But we need to do something about this problem.
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Moramo nešto učiniti po ovom problemu.
00:28
I began my life as a markets professional
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Počeo sam svoj život kao stručnjak za
tržište
tržište
00:31
and continued to take an interest,
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i to me nastavilo zanimati,
00:34
but most of my recent effort
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no većina mog nedavnog rada
00:36
has been looking at the value
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je bila promatranje vrijednosti
00:38
of what comes to human beings from nature,
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onoga što ljudima dolazi iz prirode,
00:40
and which doesn't get priced by the markets.
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i što nema tržišne cijene.
00:43
A project called TEEB was started in 2007,
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Projekt zvan TEEB je započet 2007.,
00:46
and it was launched by a group of environment ministers
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i pokrenut je od grupe ministara okoliša
00:49
of the G8+5.
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grupe G8+5.
00:51
And their basic inspiration
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Osnovna inspiracija
00:53
was a stern review of Lord Stern.
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je bio strog osvrt Lorda Sterna.
00:55
They asked themselves a question:
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Pitali su se:
00:57
If economics could make such a convincing case
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Ako ekonomija može izvesti tako uvjerljiv
00:59
for early action on climate change,
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slučaj za rano djelovanje po pitanju
klimatskih promjena,
klimatskih promjena,
01:01
well why can't the same be done for conservation?
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zašto ne može isto biti učinjeno za
očuvanje?
očuvanje?
01:03
Why can't an equivalent case be made
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Zašto isti slučaj ne može
01:05
for nature?
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biti napravljen za prirodu?
01:07
And the answer is: Yeah, it can.
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Odgovor je: Da, može.
01:09
But it's not that straightforward.
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Samo ne toliko izravno.
01:11
Biodiversity, the living fabric of this planet, is not a gas.
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Bioraznolikost, živo tkanje ovog planeta,
nije plin.
nije plin.
01:14
It exists in many layers,
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Postoji u mnogo slojeva,
01:16
ecosystems, species and genes across many scales --
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ekosustavi, vrste i geni kroz mnogo
mjera, --
mjera, --
01:19
international, national, local, community --
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internacionalno, nacionalno, lokalno,
u zajednici --
u zajednici --
01:22
and doing for nature
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a raditi za prirodu
01:24
what Lord Stern and his team did for nature is not that easy.
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ono što su radili Lord Stern i njegov tim
za prirodu, nije lagano.
za prirodu, nije lagano.
01:27
And yet, we began.
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No, počeli smo.
01:29
We began the project with an interim report,
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Počeli smo projekt privremenim izvještajem
01:31
which quickly pulled together
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koji je brzo prikupio
01:33
a lot of information that had been collected on the subject
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mnogo informacija koje su skupljene
na tu temu
na tu temu
01:36
by many, many researchers.
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uz pomoć velikog broja istraživača.
01:38
And amongst our compiled results
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U tim zbirnim rezultatima
01:40
was the startling revelation
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bilo je potresno otkrivenje
01:42
that, in fact, we were losing natural capital --
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da, ustvari, gubimo prirodni kapital --
01:45
the benefits that flow from nature to us.
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povlastice koje teku od prirode do nas.
01:47
We were losing it at an extraordinary rate --
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Gubili smo ih iznimnom brzinom --
01:49
in fact, of the order of two to four trillion dollars-worth
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ustvari, u iznosu od 2 - 4 trilijuna dolara
01:52
of natural capital.
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vrijednosti prirodnog kapitala.
01:55
This came out in 2008,
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Ovo je izašlo 2008.,
01:57
which was, of course, around the time that the banking crisis had shown
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što je bilo u vrijeme kada se bankarska
kriza pojavila,
kriza pojavila,
01:59
that we had lost financial capital
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kada smo izgubili financijski kapital
02:01
of the order of two and a half trillion dollars.
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u iznosu 2,5 bilijuna dolara.
02:03
So this was comparable in size to that kind of loss.
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Dakle bilo je usporedivo u količini.
02:06
We then have gone on since
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Otada smo
02:08
to present for [the] international community,
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prezentirali međunarodnoj zajednici,
02:11
for governments,
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vladama,
02:13
for local governments and for business
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lokalnim vladama i poslovima
02:15
and for people, for you and me,
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ljudima, meni i vama,
02:17
a whole slew of reports, which were presented at the U.N. last year,
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cijelo mnoštvo izvještaja koji su
prikazani UN-u prošle godine,
prikazani UN-u prošle godine,
02:20
which address the economic invisibility of nature
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koji govore o ekonomskoj nevidljivosti
prirode
prirode
02:23
and describe what can be done to solve it.
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i opisuje što se može napraviti po tome.
02:25
What is this about?
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O čemu se ovdje radi?
02:27
A picture that you're familiar with --
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Slika s kojom ste upoznati --
02:29
the Amazon rainforests.
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prašume Amazone.
02:31
It's a massive store of carbon, it's an amazing store of biodiversity,
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Masovno skladište ugljika, zadivljujuće
mjesto bioraznolikosti,
mjesto bioraznolikosti,
02:34
but what people don't really know
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no ono što ljudi ne znaju
02:36
is this also is a rain factory.
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je da je također i tvornica kiše.
02:38
Because the northeastern trade winds,
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Jer sjeveroistočni vjetrovi,
02:40
as they go over the Amazonas,
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dok prelaze preko Amazone,
02:42
effectively gather the water vapor.
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efektivno skupljaju vodenu paru.
02:44
Something like 20 billion tons per day of water vapor
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Otprilike 20 milijardi tona na dan
vodene pare
vodene pare
02:47
is sucked up by the northeastern trade winds,
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koja je uvučena u sjeveroistočne vjetrove
02:50
and eventually precipitates in the form of rain
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i na kraju se pojavi u obliku kiše
02:53
across the La Plata Basin.
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kod La Plata Basina.
02:55
This rainfall cycle, this rainfall factory,
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Ciklus padanja kiše, ova tvornica kiše,
02:58
effectively feeds an agricultural economy
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hrani poljoprivrednu ekonomiju
03:00
of the order of 240 billion dollars-worth
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u iznosu od 240 milijardi dolara
03:02
in Latin America.
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u Latinskoj Americi.
03:04
But the question arises: Okay, so how much
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Postavlja se pitanje: Koliko
03:07
do Uruguay, Paraguay, Argentina
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Urugvaj, Paragvaj, Argentina
03:09
and indeed the state of Mato Grosso in Brazil
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i područje Mato Grosso u Brazilu
03:12
pay for that vital input to that economy
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plaćaju za taj ključni doprinos ekonomiji
03:15
to the state of Amazonas, which produces that rainfall?
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području Amazona, koje proizvodi tu kišu?
03:18
And the answer is zilch,
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Odgovor je ništa,
03:20
exactly zero.
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ravno nula.
03:22
That's the economic invisibility of nature.
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To je ekonomska nevidljivost prirode.
03:24
That can't keep going on,
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To se ne može nastaviti,
03:26
because economic incentives and disincentives are very powerful.
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jer ti ekonomski poticaji su vrlo moćni.
03:29
Economics has become the currency of policy.
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Ekonomija je postala valutom politike.
03:31
And unless we address
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I ukoliko ne obratimo pozornost
03:33
this invisibility,
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na tu nevidljivost,
03:35
we are going to get the results that we are seeing,
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dobiti ćemo rezultate koje vidimo,
03:37
which is a gradual degradation and loss
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koji su postepeno degradiranje i gubitak
03:40
of this valuable natural asset.
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vrijednih prirodnih resursa.
03:42
It's not just about the Amazonas, or indeed about rainforests.
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Ne radi se samo o Amazoni ili o
prašumama.
prašumama.
03:45
No matter what level you look at,
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Kako god da pogledate,
03:47
whether it's at the ecosystem level or at the species level or at the genetic level,
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bilo na razini ekosustava, vrste
ili genetike,
ili genetike,
03:50
we see the same problem again and again.
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vidimo isti problem svaki put iznova.
03:53
So rainfall cycle and water regulation by rainforests
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Ciklus kiše i regulacije vode u prašumama
03:56
at an ecosystem level.
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na razini ekosustava.
03:58
At the species level,
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Na razini vrste,
04:00
it's been estimated that insect-based pollination,
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je procjenjeno da je oprašivanje insekata,
04:02
bees pollinating fruit and so on,
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oprašivanje pčela i slično
04:05
is something like 190 billion dollars-worth.
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vrijedno otprilike 190 milijardi dolara.
04:08
That's something like eight percent
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To je oko 8%
04:10
of the total agricultural output globally.
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potpunog globalnog poljoprivrednog prometa.
04:14
It completely passes below the radar screen.
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Prolazi ispod radara u cijelosti.
04:16
But when did a bee actually ever give you an invoice?
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No kad vam je pčela ikada dala fakturu?
04:19
Or for that matter, if you look at the genetic level,
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Ili, ako gledate na genetskoj razini,
04:22
60 percent of medicines were prospected,
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60% lijekova koji se prodaju,
04:25
were found first as molecules in a rainforest or a reef.
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su prvo nađeni kao molekule u prašumi
ili na grebenu.
ili na grebenu.
04:28
Once again, most of that doesn't get paid.
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Još jednom, većina toga se ne plaća.
04:30
And that brings me to another aspect of this,
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To me dovodi do sljedećeg aspekta,
04:32
which is, to whom should this get paid?
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koji je, kome bi se trebalo platiti?
04:35
That genetic material
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Taj genetski materijal
04:37
probably belonged, if it could belong to anyone,
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je vjerojatno pripadao, ako je mogao
pripadati bilo kome,
pripadati bilo kome,
04:39
to a local community of poor people
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lokalnoj zajednici siromašnih ljudi
04:41
who parted with the knowledge that helped the researchers to find the molecule,
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koji su odvojili znanje koje je
pomoglo znanstvenicima da nađu
pomoglo znanstvenicima da nađu
04:44
which then became the medicine.
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molekulu koja je tada postala lijek.
04:46
They were the ones that didn't get paid.
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Oni su ti kojima nije plaćeno.
04:48
And if you look at the species level,
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Ako gledate na razini vrsta,
04:51
you saw about fish.
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recimo nešto o ribama.
04:53
Today, the depletion of ocean fisheries is so significant
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Danas je trošenje oceanskih izvora ribe
toliko značajno
toliko značajno
04:56
that effectively it is effecting the ability of the poor,
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da uspješno utječe na mogućnost
siromašnih,
siromašnih,
05:00
the artisanal fisher folk
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zanatskih ribara,
05:02
and those who fish for their own livelihoods,
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i onih koji ribare za svoj život,
05:04
to feed their families.
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da nahrane svoje obitelji.
05:06
Something like a billion people depend on fish,
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Oko milijardu ljudi ovisi o ribi,
05:08
the quantity of fish in the oceans.
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količini ribe u oceanima.
05:10
A billion people depend on fish
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Milijardu ljudi ovisi o ribi
05:13
for their main source for animal protein.
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kao glavnom izvoru životinjskih proteina.
05:15
And at this rate at which we are losing fish,
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Brzina kojom gubimo ribu,
05:17
it is a human problem of enormous dimensions,
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postaje ljudski problem
ogromnih dimenzija,
ogromnih dimenzija,
05:19
a health problem
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zdravstveni problem
05:21
of a kind we haven't seen before.
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kakav još nismo vidjeli.
05:24
And finally, at the ecosystem level,
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Konačno, razina ekosustava,
05:26
whether it's flood prevention or drought control provided by the forests,
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bilo prevencija poplava ili suša pomoću
šuma,
šuma,
05:29
or whether it is the ability of poor farmers
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bilo mogućnost siromašnih farmera
05:31
to go out and gather leaf litter
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da skupljaju lišće
05:33
for their cattle and goats,
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za svoju stoku i koze,
05:35
or whether it's the ability of their wives
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ili mogućnost njihovih žena
05:37
to go and collect fuel wood from the forest,
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da skupljaju drvo za ogrijev iz šuma,
05:39
it is actually the poor
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ustvari su siromašni oni
05:41
who depend most on these ecosystem services.
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koji najviše ovise o uslugama ekosustava.
05:43
We did estimates in our study
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Napravili smo izračune u našim
istraživanjima
istraživanjima
05:45
that for countries like Brazil, India and Indonesia,
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za države poput Brazila, Indije
i Indonezije,
i Indonezije,
05:48
even though ecosystem services --
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čak kroz usluge ekosustava --
05:50
these benefits that flow from nature to humanity for free --
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te povlastice koje putuju od prirode do
čovječanstva besplatno -
čovječanstva besplatno -
05:53
they're not very big in percentage terms of GDP --
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nisu velikih postotaka u omjerima BDP-a --
05:55
two, four, eight, 10, 15 percent --
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2, 4, 8, 10, 15% --
05:57
but in these countries, if we measure how much they're worth to the poor,
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no u tim državama, ako mjerimo koliko
je vrijedno siromašnima,
je vrijedno siromašnima,
06:00
the answers are more like
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odgovori više naginju prema
06:02
45 percent, 75 percent, 90 percent.
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45, 75, 90%.
06:05
That's the difference.
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To je razlika.
06:07
Because these are important benefits for the poor.
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Jer to su važne povlastice za siromašne.
06:10
And you can't really have a proper model for development
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I ne možete imati prave modele za razvoj
06:13
if at the same time you're destroying or allowing
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ako u isto vrijeme uništavate
ili dopuštate
ili dopuštate
06:16
the degradation of the very asset, the most important asset,
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degradaciju upravo tih resursa,
najvažnijih resursa,
najvažnijih resursa,
06:19
which is your development asset,
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koji su vaši resursi za razvoj,
06:21
that is ecological infrastructure.
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koji su ekološka infrastruktura.
06:23
How bad can things get?
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Koliko loše može biti?
06:25
Well here a picture of something called the mean species abundance.
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Ovdje je slika nečega što se zove obilje
vrsta.
vrsta.
06:28
It's basically a measure
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U osnovi je mjera
06:30
of how many tigers, toads, ticks or whatever on average
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koliko tigrova, žaba, ili čega već u
06:32
of biomass of various species are around.
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prosjeku biomase raznih vrsta postoji.
06:35
The green represents the percentage.
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Zeleno predstavlja postotak.
06:37
If you start green, it's like 80 to 100 percent.
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Ako počinjete zeleno, radi se o 80 - 100%.
06:40
If it's yellow, it's 40 to 60 percent.
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Ako je žuto, radi se o 40 - 60%.
06:42
And these are percentages versus the original state, so to speak,
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Ovo su postoci u omjeru s
originalnim stanjem,
originalnim stanjem,
06:44
the pre-industrial era, 1750.
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predindustrijska era, 1750.
06:47
Now I'm going to show you
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Sada ću vam pokazati
06:49
how business as usual will affect this.
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kako bi posao obično utjecao na ovo.
06:51
And just watch the change in colors
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Gledajte promjene u bojama
06:53
in India, China, Europe,
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u Indiji, Kini, Europi,
06:55
sub-Saharan Africa
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sub-Saharskoj Africi
06:57
as we move on and consume global biomass
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kako se krećemo i konzumiramo globalnu
biomasu
biomasu
07:00
at a rate which is actually not going to be able to sustain us.
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brzinom kojom nećemo moći sebe održati.
07:04
See that again.
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Pogledajte ponovo.
07:06
The only places that remain green -- and that's not good news --
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Jedino mjesto koje ostaje zeleno --
a to nije dobra vijest --
a to nije dobra vijest --
07:08
is, in fact, places like the Gobi Desert,
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su ustvari mjesta poput pustinje Gobi,
07:11
like the tundra and like the Sahara.
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poput tundre i Sahare.
07:13
But that doesn't help because there were very few species
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To ne pomaže jer je tamo vrlo malo vrsta
07:15
and volume of biomass there in the first place.
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i količine biomase.
07:17
This is the challenge.
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Ovo je izazov.
07:19
The reason this is happening
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Razlog zašto se ovo događa
07:22
boils down, in my mind, to one basic problem,
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se, u mojoj glavi, svodi na osnovni
problem,
problem,
07:25
which is our inability to perceive the difference
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je da nismo sposobni uvidjeti razliku
07:27
between public benefits
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između javnog dobra
07:29
and private profits.
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i privatnog profita.
07:31
We tend to constantly ignore public wealth
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Konstantno ignoriramo javno bogatstvo
07:34
simply because it is in the common wealth,
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samo zato što je zajedničko,
07:36
it's common goods.
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zajedničko dobro.
07:38
And here's an example from Thailand
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Ovo je primjer iz Tajlanda
07:40
where we found that, because the value of a mangrove is not that much --
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gdje smo pronašli da, jer cijena mangrova
nije velika --
nije velika --
07:44
it's about $600 over the life of nine years that this has been measured --
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oko 600 dolara tijekom 9 godina koliko
se mjerilo --
se mjerilo --
07:48
compared to its value as a shrimp farm,
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u usporedbi s vrijednošću farme kozica,
07:50
which is more like $9,600,
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koja je oko 9.600 dolara,
07:52
there has been a gradual trend to deplete the mangroves
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postoji postupni trend iscrpljivanja
mangrova
mangrova
07:55
and convert them to shrimp farms.
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i pretvaranja u farme kozica.
07:57
But of course, if you look at exactly what those profits are,
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Naravno, ako gledate koji su
točno profiti,
točno profiti,
08:01
almost 8,000 of those dollars
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gotovo 8,000 dolara od toga
08:03
are, in fact, subsidies.
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su subvencije.
08:05
So you compare the two sides of the coin
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Dakle uspoređujete dvije strane novčića
08:08
and you find that it's more like 1,200 to 600.
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i vidite da je profit više oko 1,200 do
600.
600.
08:10
That's not that hard.
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Nije toliko teško.
08:12
But on the other hand, if you start measuring,
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No s druge strane, ako počnete mjeriti,
08:14
how much would it actually cost
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koliko bi zapravo koštalo
08:16
to restore the land of the shrimp farm
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da vratite tlo na kojem je farma kozica
08:18
back to productive use?
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natrag u produktivne svrhe?
08:20
Once salt deposition and chemical deposition
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Nakon što su sol i kemikalije
08:22
has had its effects,
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imale svoj utjecaj,
08:24
that answer is more like $12,000 of cost.
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odgovor je oko 12.000 dolara,
08:27
And if you see the benefits of the mangrove
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Ako vidite prednosti mangrova
08:29
in terms of the storm protection and cyclone protection that you get
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u razini obrane od oluja i ciklona koju
dobijete
dobijete
08:32
and in terms of the fisheries, the fish nurseries,
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u razini ribolova i uzgajanja ribe,
08:34
that provide fish for the poor,
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koje daju ribu siromašnima,
08:36
that answer is more like $11,000.
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odgovor je oko 11.000 dolara.
08:38
So now look at the different lens.
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Sada pogledajte kroz drugačije leće.
08:40
If you look at the lens of public wealth
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Ako gledate kroz leće javnog bogatstva
08:42
as against the lens of private profits,
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u suprotnosti s lećama privatnog profita,
08:44
you get a completely different answer,
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dobijete potpuno nov odgovor,
08:46
which is clearly conservation makes more sense,
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da čuvanje mangrova ima više smisla
08:49
and not destruction.
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od uništavanja.
08:51
So is this just a story from South Thailand?
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Dakle, ovo je samo priča s
južnog Tajlanda?
južnog Tajlanda?
08:54
Sorry, this is a global story.
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Oprostite, ovo je globalna priča.
08:56
And here's what the same calculation looks like,
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Ovako izgleda ista računica,
08:58
which was done recently -- well I say recently, over the last 10 years --
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koja je izvedena nedavno -- kažem nedavno,
mislim kroz 10 godina --
mislim kroz 10 godina --
09:01
by a group called TRUCOST.
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od grupe zvane TRUCOST.
09:03
And they calculated for the top 3,000 corporations,
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Izračunali su za prvih 3.000 poduzeća
09:05
what are the externalities?
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koje su eksternalije?
09:07
In other words, what are the costs of doing business as usual?
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Odnosno, koliki je trošak
uobičajenog poslovanja?
uobičajenog poslovanja?
09:09
This is not illegal stuff, this is basically business as usual,
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Ovo nisu ilegalne stvari, ovo je u osnovi
samo posao,
samo posao,
09:12
which causes climate-changing emissions, which have an economic cost.
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koji uzrokuje klimatske promjene, koje
imaju ekonomsku cijenu.
imaju ekonomsku cijenu.
09:15
It causes pollutants being issued, which have an economic cost,
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Uzrokuje stvaranje zagađivača, koji imaju
ekonomsku cijenu,
ekonomsku cijenu,
09:18
health cost and so on.
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zdravstvenu cijenu, i tako dalje.
09:20
Use of freshwater.
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Korištenje svježe vode.
09:22
If you drill water to make coke near a village farm,
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Ako bušite za vodu kako bi napravili
kolu u blizini seoske farme,
kolu u blizini seoske farme,
09:24
that's not illegal, but yes, it costs the community.
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To nije ilegalno, ali košta zajednicu.
09:26
Can we stop this, and how?
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Možemo li to zaustaviti i kako?
09:28
I think the first point to make is that we need to recognize natural capital.
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Prvi cilj je prepoznati prirodni kapital.
09:31
Basically the stuff of life is natural capital,
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U osnovi stvari koje život znače su
prirodni kapital,
prirodni kapital,
09:34
and we need to recognize and build that into our systems.
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i moramo to prepoznati i
ugraditi u sustave.
ugraditi u sustave.
09:37
When we measure GDP
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Kada mjerimo BDP
09:39
as a measure of economic performance at the national level,
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kao mjeru ekonomske izvedbe na nacionalnoj
razini,
razini,
09:41
we don't include our biggest asset at the country level.
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ne uključujemo najveće resurse na
razini države.
razini države.
09:44
When we measure corporate performances,
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Kada mjerimo učinak poduzeća,
09:46
we don't include our impacts on nature
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ne uključujemo naš utjecaj na prirodu
09:48
and what our business costs society.
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i koliko naš posao košta zajednicu.
09:50
That has to stop.
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To mora stati.
09:52
In fact, this was what really inspired my interest in this phase.
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Ustvari, to je upravo što je inspiriralo
moj interes u ovoj fazi.
moj interes u ovoj fazi.
09:55
I began a project way back called the Green Accounting Project.
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Davno sam počeo projekt koji se zvao
Projekt zelenog računovodstva.
Projekt zelenog računovodstva.
09:57
That was in the early 2000s
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To je bilo u ranim 2000.-ima
09:59
when India was going gung-ho about GDP growth
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kada je Indija išla na rast BDP-a
10:02
as the means forward --
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kao sredstvo za napredak --
10:04
looking at China with its stellar growths of eight, nine, 10 percent
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gledajući Kinu i njen rast od
8, 9, 10%
8, 9, 10%
10:06
and wondering, why can we do the same?
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i razmišljajući zašto mi ne možemo isto?
10:08
And a few friends of mine and I
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Nekoliko mojih prijatelja i ja
10:10
decided this doesn't make sense.
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smo odlučili da to nema smisla.
10:12
This is going to create more cost to society and more losses.
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Ovo će stvoriti više troškova za društvo
i više gubitaka.
i više gubitaka.
10:15
So we decided to do a massive set of calculations
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Odlučili smo napraviti ogroman set
izračuna
izračuna
10:17
and started producing green accounts for India and its states.
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i počeli proizvoditi zelene račune za
Indiju i njene pokrajine.
Indiju i njene pokrajine.
10:20
That's how my interests began
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Tako je počeo moj interes
10:22
and went to the TEEB project.
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i krenuo prema projektu TEEB.
10:24
Calculating this at the national level is one thing, and it has begun.
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Računanje na nacionalnoj razini je jedna
stvar i počelo je.
stvar i počelo je.
10:27
And the World Bank has acknowledged this
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Svjetska banka je prepoznala ovo
10:29
and they've started a project called WAVES --
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i počeli su projekt pod nazivom WAVES --
10:31
Wealth Accounting and Valuation of Ecosystem Services.
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Računovodstvo bogatstva i procjena
usluga ekosustava.
usluga ekosustava.
10:33
But calculating this at the next level,
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No računanje na sljedećoj razini,
10:35
that means at the business sector level, is important.
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znači na razini poslovnog sektora,
je važno.
je važno.
10:37
And actually we've done this with the TEEB project.
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Zapravo smo ovo i napravili s TEEB-om
10:39
We've done this for a very difficult case,
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Učinili smo ovo za težak slučaj,
10:42
which was for deforestation in China.
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koji je bio deforestacija u Kini.
10:44
This is important, because in China in 1997,
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Ovo je važno jer je u Kini 1997.,
10:47
the Yellow River actually went dry for nine months
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Žuta rijeka presušila na 9 mjeseci
10:50
causing severe loss of agriculture output
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uzrokujući velike gubitke poljoprivredi,
10:52
and pain and loss to society.
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bol i gubitak društvu.
10:54
Just a year later the Yangtze flooded,
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Godinu dana kasnije, Yangtze je poplavila,
10:56
causing something like 5,500 deaths.
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uzrokujući oko 5.500 poginulih.
10:59
So clearly there was a problem with deforestation.
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Očito je postojao problem sa
deforestacijom.
deforestacijom.
11:01
It was associated largely with the construction industry.
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Povezan uvelike s građevinskom
industrijom.
industrijom.
11:04
And the Chinese government responded sensibly
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Kineska vlada je odgovorila razumno
11:06
and placed a ban on felling.
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i stavila zabranu na sječu.
11:08
A retrospective on 40 years
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Pregled kroz 40 godina
11:10
shows that if we had accounted for these costs --
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pokazuje da smo odgovarali za te
troškove --
troškove --
11:14
the cost of loss of topsoil,
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troškove gubitka tla,
11:16
the cost of loss of waterways,
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troškove gubitka vodenih puteva,
11:18
the lost productivity, the loss to local communities
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gubitak produktivnosti, gubitak lokalne
zajednice
zajednice
11:21
as a result of all these factors,
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kao rezultat svih tih faktora,
11:23
desertification and so on --
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pustošenje i slično --
11:25
those costs are almost twice as much
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koštaju gotovo dvostruko više nego
11:27
as the market price of timber.
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tržišna cijena drva.
11:29
So in fact, the price of timber in the Beijing marketplace
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Ustvari, cijena drva na tržištu u Pekingu
11:32
ought to have been three-times what it was
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bi bila tri puta veća nego što je,
11:34
had it reflected the true pain and the costs
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da je odražavala pravu cijenu i bol
11:37
to the society within China.
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društva u Kini.
11:39
Of course, after the event one can be wise.
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Naravno, nakon događaja, može se biti
mudar.
mudar.
11:42
The way to do this is to do it on a company basis,
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Način na koji poduzeća mogu pomoći,
11:44
to take leadership forward,
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jest da vodstvo razmišlja unaprijed
11:46
and to do it for as many important sectors which have a cost,
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i isto učiniti za toliko važnih sektora
koji imaju cijenu
koji imaju cijenu
11:49
and to disclose these answers.
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i otkrivati odgovore.
11:51
Someone once asked me, "Who is better or worse,
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Netko me jednom pitao:
"Tko je bolji ili lošiji,
"Tko je bolji ili lošiji,
11:53
is it Unilever or is it P&G
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Unilever ili P&G
11:55
when it comes to their impact on rainforests in Indonesia?"
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kada je u pitanju utjecaj na prašume u
Indoneziji?"
Indoneziji?"
11:58
And I couldn't answer because neither of these companies,
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Nisam mogao odgovoriti jer nijedna od njih
12:00
good though they are and professional though they are,
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iako su profesionalne,
12:02
do not calculate or disclose their externalities.
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ne računaju, ne otkrivaju svoje
eksternalije.
eksternalije.
12:05
But if we look at companies like PUMA --
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No ako pogledamo tvrtke poput PUME --
12:07
Jochen Zeitz, their CEO and chairman,
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Jochen Zeitz, njihov direktor,
12:09
once challenged me at a function,
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me jednom izazvao na djelovanje,
12:11
saying that he's going to implement my project before I finish it.
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govoreći da će implementirati moj
projekt prije nego ga završim.
projekt prije nego ga završim.
12:14
Well I think we kind of did it at the same time, but he's done it.
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Mislim da smo završili u isto vrijeme,
no napravio je to.
no napravio je to.
12:17
He's basically worked the cost to PUMA.
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U osnovi je računao Pumine troškove.
Puma ima 2,7 milijardi dolara prometa,
12:19
PUMA has 2.7 billion dollars of turnover,
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12:21
300 million dollars of profits,
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300 milijuna dolara profita,
12:23
200 million dollars after tax,
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200 milijuna dolara nakon poreza,
12:25
94 million dollars of externalities, cost to business.
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94 milijuna dolara eksternalija,
troškova poslu.
troškova poslu.
12:28
Now that's not a happy situation for them,
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To nije dobra situacija za njih,
12:30
but they have the confidence and the courage
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no imaju hrabrost i samouvjerenost
12:32
to come forward and say, "Here's what we are measuring.
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da izađu i kažu:
"Ovo je ono što mi mjerimo.
"Ovo je ono što mi mjerimo.
12:35
We are measuring it because we know
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Mjerimo to jer znamo
12:37
that you cannot manage what you do not measure."
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da ne možeš upravljati
onime što ne mjeriš."
onime što ne mjeriš."
12:39
That's an example, I think, for us to look at
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To je, rekao bih, primjer za nas
da gledamo i
da gledamo i
12:41
and for us to draw comfort from.
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da vučemo pouku iz njega.
12:43
If more companies did this,
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Kada bi više poduzeća radilo to,
12:45
and if more sectors engaged this as sectors,
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i kada bi više sektora pridoneslo ovome
kao sektori,
kao sektori,
12:47
you could have analysts, business analysts,
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mogli bi imati poslovne analitičare,
12:49
and you could have people like us and consumers and NGOs
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i ljude poput nas i potrošače i nevladine
udruge
udruge
12:52
actually look and compare the social performance of companies.
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da zapravo pogledaju i usporede društvenu
izvedbu poduzeća.
izvedbu poduzeća.
12:55
Today we can't yet do that, but I think the path is laid out.
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Danas to još ne možemo, no mislim da
je put popločen.
je put popločen.
12:58
This can be done.
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Ovo se može učiniti.
13:00
And I'm delighted that the Institute of Chartered Accountants in the U.K.
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Drago mi je da je institut ovlaštenih
računovođa u UK
računovođa u UK
13:02
has already set up a coalition to do this,
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već složio koaliciju,
13:04
an international coalition.
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međunarodnu koaliciju.
13:06
The other favorite, if you like, solution for me
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Drugi favorit, rješenje za mene je
13:09
is the creation of green carbon markets.
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stvaranje tržišta zelenog ugljika.
13:11
And by the way, these are my favorites --
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Usput, ovo su mi favoriti --
13:13
externalities calculation and green carbon markets.
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računanje eksternalija i tržište
zelenog ugljika.
zelenog ugljika.
13:15
TEEB has more than a dozen separate groups of solutions
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TEEB ima desetak drugačijih grupa rješenja
13:19
including protected area evaluation
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uključujući procjenu zaštićenog područja
13:21
and payments for ecosystem services
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i plaćanje za usluge ekosustava,
13:23
and eco-certification and you name it, but these are the favorites.
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3000
eko-certifikacija i slično, ali ovo su
mi favoriti.
mi favoriti.
13:26
What's green carbon?
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Što je zeleni ugljik?
13:28
Today what we have is basically a brown carbon marketplace.
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Danas imamo tržište smeđeg ugljika.
13:30
It's about energy emissions.
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Radi se o emisiji energije.
13:32
The European Union ETS is the main marketplace.
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Trgovački sustav EU je glavno tržište.
13:34
It's not doing too well. We've over-issued.
340
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Ne funkcionira. Prevelika je ponuda.
13:36
A bit like inflation: you over-issue currency,
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Nešto kao inflacija: ponudite
previše valute,
previše valute,
13:38
you get what you see, declining prices.
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dobijete što vidite, smanjenje cijena.
13:41
But that's all about energy and industry.
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No to je sve o energiji i industriji.
13:44
But what we're missing is also some other emissions
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Propuštamo druge emisije
13:46
like black carbon, that is soot.
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kao crni ugljik, koji je čađa.
13:48
What we're also missing is blue carbon,
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Propuštamo i plavi ugljik,
13:50
which, by the way, is the largest store of carbon --
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koji je, usput, najzastupljeniji ugljik --
13:52
more than 55 percent.
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više od 55%.
13:54
Thankfully, the flux, in other words, the flow of emissions
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Na sreću, tok emisija
13:56
from the ocean to the atmosphere and vice versa,
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iz oceana do atmosfere i obrnuto,
13:58
is more or less balanced.
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je više manje balansiran.
14:00
In fact, what's being absorbed
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Ono što se upija
14:02
is something like 25 percent of our emissions,
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je oko 25% naših emisija,
14:05
which then leads to acidification
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koje vode do kiselosti
14:07
or lower alkalinity in oceans.
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ili niske lužnatosti u oceanima.
14:09
More of that in a minute.
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Više o tome za minutu.
14:11
And finally, there's deforestation,
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I na kraju, postoji deforestacija,
14:13
and there's emission of methane
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i emisija metana
14:15
from agriculture.
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iz poljoprivrede.
14:17
Green carbon,
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Zeleni ugljik,
14:19
which is the deforestation and agricultural emissions,
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koji je deforestacija i emisije
poljoprivrede,
poljoprivrede,
14:21
and blue carbon
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i plavi ugljik
14:23
together comprise 25 percent of our emissions.
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zajedno čine 25% naših emisija.
14:25
We have the means already in our hands,
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Imamo već sredstva u našim rukama,
14:27
through a structure, through a mechanism, called REDD Plus --
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kroz strukturu, mehanizam zvan REDD Plus -
14:29
a scheme for the reduced emissions
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shema za reduciranje emisija
14:31
from deforestation and forest degradation.
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iz deforestacija i degradacija šuma.
14:34
And already Norway has contributed a billion dollars each
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Norveška je već doprinijela s milijardu
dolara
dolara
14:37
towards Indonesia and Brazil
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u Indoneziji i Brazilu
14:39
to implement this Red Plus scheme.
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da primjene shemu Red Plus.
14:41
So we actually have some movement forward.
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Dakle imamo kretanje prema naprijed.
14:43
But the thing is to do a lot more of that.
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Stvar je da nam treba puno više toga.
14:45
Will this solve the problem? Will economics solve everything?
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Hoće li ovo riješiti problem? Hoće li
ekonomija riješiti sve?
ekonomija riješiti sve?
14:48
Well I'm afraid not.
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Bojim se da ne.
14:50
There is an area that is the oceans, coral reefs.
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Postoji područje u oceanima,
koraljni grebeni.
koraljni grebeni.
14:53
As you can see,
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Kao što možete vidjeti,
14:55
they cut across the entire globe
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ima ih po cijelom planetu
14:57
all the way from Micronesia
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od Mikronezije
14:59
across Indonesia, Malaysia, India, Madagascar
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preko Indonezije, Malazije, Indije,
Madagaskara
Madagaskara
15:02
and to the West of the Caribbean.
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do zapadnih Kariba.
15:04
These red dots, these red areas,
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Ove crvene točke, crvena područja,
15:06
basically provide the food and livelihood
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u osnovi daju hranu i život
15:08
for more than half a billion people.
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više od pola milijarde ljudi.
15:10
So that's almost an eighth of society.
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To je gotovo osmina društva.
15:13
And the sad thing is that, as these coral reefs are lost --
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Tužna vijest je, kako su ti grebeni
izgubljeni --
izgubljeni --
15:16
and scientists tell us
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a znanstvenici nam govore da bilo koja
15:18
that any level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere above 350 parts per million
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količina ugljičnog dioksida u atmosferi
iznad 350 dijelova u milijun
iznad 350 dijelova u milijun
15:21
is too dangerous for the survival of these reefs --
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je preopasna za opstanak ovih grebena --
15:24
we are not only risking the extinction
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ne riskiramo samo smrt cijele vrste
15:26
of the entire coral species, the warm water corals,
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koralja, koralja toplih voda,
15:28
we're not only risking a fourth of all fish species which are in the oceans,
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ne riskiramo samo četvrtinu svih riba
u oceanu,
u oceanu,
15:32
but we are risking the very lives and livelihoods
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već riskiramo živote i dobrobit
15:34
of more than 500 million people
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više od 500 milijuna ljudi
15:37
who live in the developing world in poor countries.
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koji žive u tim državama u razvoju.
15:40
So in selecting targets of 450 parts per million
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Izborom cilja od 450 dijelova u milijun
15:43
and selecting two degrees at the climate negotiations,
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i dva stupnja na klimatskim raspravama,
15:46
what we have done is we've made an ethical choice.
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ono što smo učinili je da smo napravili
etičan izbor.
etičan izbor.
15:49
We've actually kind of made an ethical choice in society
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Napravili smo etičan izbor u društvu
15:52
to not have coral reefs.
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da nemamo koraljne grebene.
15:54
Well what I will say to you in parting
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Ono što ću vam reći u odlasku
15:56
is that we may have done that.
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je da smo mogli to napraviti.
15:58
Let's think about it and what it means,
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Razmislimo o onome što to znači
16:00
but please, let's not do more of that.
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no molim vas, ne više od toga.
16:02
Because mother nature only has that much
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Jer majka priroda ima samo određenu
16:04
in ecological infrastructure and that much natural capital.
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ekološku infrastrukturu i
prirodnog kapitala.
prirodnog kapitala.
16:07
I don't think we can afford too much of such ethical choices.
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Mislim da ne možemo izabrati toliko
etičan izbor.
etičan izbor.
16:10
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
16:12
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Pavan Sukhdev - Environmental economistA banker by training, Pavan Sukhdev runs the numbers on greening up -- showing that green economies are an effective engine for creating jobs and creating wealth.
Why you should listen
In 2008, Sukhdev took a sabbatical from Deutsche Bank, where he'd worked for fifteen years, to write up two massive and convincing reports on the green economy. For UNEP, his “Green Economy Report” synthesized years of research to show, with real numbers, that environmentally sound development is not a bar to growth but rather a new engine for growing wealth and creating employment in the face of persistent poverty. The groundbreaking TEEB (formally “The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity”) report counts the global economic benefits of biodiversity. It encourages countries to develop and publish “Natural capital accounts” tracking the value of plants, animal, water and other “natural wealth” alongside traditional financial measures in the hope of changing how decisions are made. In his book, Corporation 2020, he envisions tomorrow’s corporations as agents of an inclusive, green economy. He is now the CEO of Gist Advisory, a sustainability consulting firm.
Pavan Sukhdev | Speaker | TED.com