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TEDGlobal 2011

Pavan Sukhdev: Put a value on nature!

パヴァン・スクデフ: 自然に値札をつけろ!

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Views 640,817

私たちは毎日、考えも無しに地球の資源を無料で使用しています。もし、こうした資源の本当の価値に対して支払をしなければならないとしたら?私たちはもっと無駄遣いに敏感になるのではないでしょうか?パヴァン・スクデフは大自然の管財人のような存在です-彼は自然の持つ資産に評価額をつけます。彼が提示する空気の、水の、そして森の値段についてのチャートに、みなさん驚かれることでしょう。

- Environmental economist
A banker by training, Pavan Sukhdev runs the numbers on greening up -- showing that green economies are an effective engine for creating jobs and creating wealth. Full bio

I'm here to talk to you
自然の
00:15
about the economic invisibility of nature.
見えざる経済についてお話します
00:17
The bad news
不都合にも
00:19
is that mother nature's back office isn't working yet,
大自然は人類に
00:21
so those invoices don't get issued.
請求書なんて出しません
00:23
But we need to do something about this problem.
とはいえ 放っておけない問題です
00:25
I began my life as a markets professional
私はキャリアをマーケッターとして
00:28
and continued to take an interest,
スタートし 今も関心があります
00:31
but most of my recent effort
一方で 最近は
00:34
has been looking at the value
大自然から人類が受ける
00:36
of what comes to human beings from nature,
値段がつけられることのない
00:38
and which doesn't get priced by the markets.
恩恵の価値に着目してます
00:40
A project called TEEB was started in 2007,
TEEBは2007年に発足しました
00:43
and it was launched by a group of environment ministers
G8+5の環境大臣たちによる
00:46
of the G8+5.
プロジェクトです
00:49
And their basic inspiration
スターン卿のスターン・レビューに
00:51
was a stern review of Lord Stern.
触発されて発足しました
00:53
They asked themselves a question:
彼らは こう思いました
00:55
If economics could make such a convincing case
経済要因が環境へのアクションを
00:57
for early action on climate change,
かくも素早く起こさせるなら
00:59
well why can't the same be done for conservation?
環境保護も同じようにならないか?
01:01
Why can't an equivalent case be made
自然保護に対して 同じように
01:03
for nature?
できないものか?
01:05
And the answer is: Yeah, it can.
答えは: イエス
01:07
But it's not that straightforward.
でも そう簡単なことじゃありません
01:09
Biodiversity, the living fabric of this planet, is not a gas.
生物の多様性 地球が織りなす生態系は
01:11
It exists in many layers,
幾層にも折り重なってます
01:14
ecosystems, species and genes across many scales --
例えば 生態系 生物種 遺伝子 が
01:16
international, national, local, community --
国際的 国家的 そしてローカルな規模で
01:19
and doing for nature
スターン卿と
01:22
what Lord Stern and his team did for nature is not that easy.
彼のチームが成し遂げた事は そう簡単なことではありません
01:24
And yet, we began.
とはいえ
01:27
We began the project with an interim report,
プロジェクトはスタートし 中間報告を
01:29
which quickly pulled together
まとめました
01:31
a lot of information that had been collected on the subject
無数の情報が多くの研究員から
01:33
by many, many researchers.
寄せられました
01:36
And amongst our compiled results
調査結果の中には
01:38
was the startling revelation
驚くべき情報も含まれ
01:40
that, in fact, we were losing natural capital --
人類が大自然から受けている恩恵-
01:42
the benefits that flow from nature to us.
自然資源が異常なスピードで
01:45
We were losing it at an extraordinary rate --
失われつつあるのです-
01:47
in fact, of the order of two to four trillion dollars-worth
しかも 2~4兆ドルもの価値が
01:49
of natural capital.
失われたのです
01:52
This came out in 2008,
報告は2008年になされ
01:55
which was, of course, around the time that the banking crisis had shown
ご存じのようにリーマンショックの年で
01:57
that we had lost financial capital
金融資本のなんと
01:59
of the order of two and a half trillion dollars.
2.5兆ドルが消え去った年です
02:01
So this was comparable in size to that kind of loss.
そのくらいの損害規模があるのです
02:03
We then have gone on since
以来 調査は続き
02:06
to present for [the] international community,
報告をしています-国際社会に
02:08
for governments,
政府に
02:11
for local governments and for business
地自体 企業
02:13
and for people, for you and me,
そして 私たち一般の人々に
02:15
a whole slew of reports, which were presented at the U.N. last year,
昨年 国連で発表された大量の報告は
02:17
which address the economic invisibility of nature
大自然の見えざる経済と
02:20
and describe what can be done to solve it.
私たちができる事を示しました
02:23
What is this about?
ご説明します
02:25
A picture that you're familiar with --
お馴染みの
02:27
the Amazon rainforests.
アマゾンの熱帯雨林-
02:29
It's a massive store of carbon, it's an amazing store of biodiversity,
炭素や生物の多様性の宝庫
02:31
but what people don't really know
あまり知られていないのは
02:34
is this also is a rain factory.
雨も作り出していることです
02:36
Because the northeastern trade winds,
北東貿易風は
02:38
as they go over the Amazonas,
アマゾンを通過する際
02:40
effectively gather the water vapor.
効率的に水蒸気を吸収します
02:42
Something like 20 billion tons per day of water vapor
なんと一日に200億トンもの水蒸気を
02:44
is sucked up by the northeastern trade winds,
北東貿易風は吸収します
02:47
and eventually precipitates in the form of rain
それらは凝縮されラ・プラタ流域に
02:50
across the La Plata Basin.
雨をもたらします
02:53
This rainfall cycle, this rainfall factory,
こうした雨をもたらすサイクルは
02:55
effectively feeds an agricultural economy
2,400億ドルもの価値を
02:58
of the order of 240 billion dollars-worth
ラテンアメリカの農業に
03:00
in Latin America.
もたらします
03:02
But the question arises: Okay, so how much
さて質問です:
03:04
do Uruguay, Paraguay, Argentina
ウルグアイ パラグアイ アルゼンチン
03:07
and indeed the state of Mato Grosso in Brazil
そしてブラジルといった国々は
03:09
pay for that vital input to that economy
雨をもたらすアマゾンに対して
03:12
to the state of Amazonas, which produces that rainfall?
いくら支払っているでしょうか?
03:15
And the answer is zilch,
答えは:ゼロ
03:18
exactly zero.
全くのゼロ
03:20
That's the economic invisibility of nature.
これこそが大自然の見えざる経済
03:22
That can't keep going on,
放っておけない問題です
03:24
because economic incentives and disincentives are very powerful.
経済効果はとてもインパクトがあるため
03:26
Economics has become the currency of policy.
政策決定の要因となります
03:29
And unless we address
私たちがこの見えざる
03:31
this invisibility,
経済を
03:33
we are going to get the results that we are seeing,
可視化しない限り 今も続く
03:35
which is a gradual degradation and loss
貴重な大自然の資産の
03:37
of this valuable natural asset.
損失を止めることはできません
03:40
It's not just about the Amazonas, or indeed about rainforests.
アマゾンや熱帯雨林だけの問題ではありません
03:42
No matter what level you look at,
この問題のどのレベルを見ても-
03:45
whether it's at the ecosystem level or at the species level or at the genetic level,
生態系 生物種 はたまた遺伝子レベル
03:47
we see the same problem again and again.
各階層で同じ問題が見られます
03:50
So rainfall cycle and water regulation by rainforests
生態系レベルにおける熱帯雨林による
03:53
at an ecosystem level.
降雨サイクルと水量の管理―
03:56
At the species level,
生物種のレベルでは
03:58
it's been estimated that insect-based pollination,
昆虫が果物などに行う受粉
04:00
bees pollinating fruit and so on,
こうした作業は
04:02
is something like 190 billion dollars-worth.
1,900億ドルもの価値があり
04:05
That's something like eight percent
これは地球上で 農業が
04:08
of the total agricultural output globally.
生み出す価値の8%を占めます
04:10
It completely passes below the radar screen.
こうした価値は完全に帳簿外です
04:14
But when did a bee actually ever give you an invoice?
ハチが請求書を持ってくるようなことはないでしょ?
04:16
Or for that matter, if you look at the genetic level,
ついでに言うと 遺伝子レベルでは
04:19
60 percent of medicines were prospected,
60%の医薬分子が熱帯雨林で
04:22
were found first as molecules in a rainforest or a reef.
捜し求められ見つかったのです
04:25
Once again, most of that doesn't get paid.
大自然はこれらの請求はしません
04:28
And that brings me to another aspect of this,
また 別の側面からこの問題を捉えると
04:30
which is, to whom should this get paid?
一体 誰が支払を受けるべきなのでしょう?
04:32
That genetic material
こうした遺伝子素材は
04:35
probably belonged, if it could belong to anyone,
誰かのものであるならば
04:37
to a local community of poor people
現地の貧しい人々のものでしょう
04:39
who parted with the knowledge that helped the researchers to find the molecule,
彼らが研究者たちをこうした分子に導き
04:41
which then became the medicine.
医薬品が作られるのです
04:44
They were the ones that didn't get paid.
彼らもまた支払を受けていません
04:46
And if you look at the species level,
では生物種のレベルを見てみましょう
04:48
you saw about fish.
水産資源について
04:51
Today, the depletion of ocean fisheries is so significant
今日 水産資源の減少は深刻で
04:53
that effectively it is effecting the ability of the poor,
貧しい人々 伝統を重んずる漁師達 そして
04:56
the artisanal fisher folk
漁業で生計を立て
05:00
and those who fish for their own livelihoods,
家族を養う人々に
05:02
to feed their families.
大打撃を与えています
05:04
Something like a billion people depend on fish,
およそ10億もの人々が海がもたらす
05:06
the quantity of fish in the oceans.
水産物に依存しています
05:08
A billion people depend on fish
10億もの人々が動物性蛋白質を
05:10
for their main source for animal protein.
水産物から得ています
05:13
And at this rate at which we are losing fish,
水産物の減少スピードは多くの側面で
05:15
it is a human problem of enormous dimensions,
人類がもたらした問題であり
05:17
a health problem
これまでにない
05:19
of a kind we haven't seen before.
健康被害をもたらします
05:21
And finally, at the ecosystem level,
最後に生態系のレベル
05:24
whether it's flood prevention or drought control provided by the forests,
森林がもたらす洪水対策や干ばつ対策
05:26
or whether it is the ability of poor farmers
そして貧しい農民による
05:29
to go out and gather leaf litter
飼料のための
05:31
for their cattle and goats,
落ち葉拾い
05:33
or whether it's the ability of their wives
はたまた燃料となる
05:35
to go and collect fuel wood from the forest,
マキ集めなど
05:37
it is actually the poor
貧困層が最も
05:39
who depend most on these ecosystem services.
生態系からの恩恵を受けています
05:41
We did estimates in our study
私たちの計算によると
05:43
that for countries like Brazil, India and Indonesia,
ブラジル インド インドネシアといった国々では
05:45
even though ecosystem services --
生態系の恩恵は-
05:48
these benefits that flow from nature to humanity for free --
無償で大自然より人類へもたらされ-
05:50
they're not very big in percentage terms of GDP --
GDP比では-
05:53
two, four, eight, 10, 15 percent --
2~5%と低めです-
05:55
but in these countries, if we measure how much they're worth to the poor,
しかし 貧困層にとってのインパクトの
05:57
the answers are more like
パーセンテージは大きく
06:00
45 percent, 75 percent, 90 percent.
45% 75% そして90%にもなります
06:02
That's the difference.
こんなに違いがあるのです
06:05
Because these are important benefits for the poor.
こうした恩恵は貧困層には重要です
06:07
And you can't really have a proper model for development
一方で 最も重要な
06:10
if at the same time you're destroying or allowing
発展資源である生態系の
06:13
the degradation of the very asset, the most important asset,
インフラを破壊しつつ
06:16
which is your development asset,
もう一方で 最適な発展など
06:19
that is ecological infrastructure.
望めないでしょう
06:21
How bad can things get?
どのくらい深刻なのか?
06:23
Well here a picture of something called the mean species abundance.
こちらは生物の多様性を図にしたものです
06:25
It's basically a measure
トラ カエル ダニなどなど
06:28
of how many tigers, toads, ticks or whatever on average
生物の多様性の
06:30
of biomass of various species are around.
平均値を表します
06:32
The green represents the percentage.
緑色であれば
06:35
If you start green, it's like 80 to 100 percent.
80~100%という意味で
06:37
If it's yellow, it's 40 to 60 percent.
黄色であれば40~60%
06:40
And these are percentages versus the original state, so to speak,
工業時代以前の1,750年の
06:42
the pre-industrial era, 1750.
状態を基準にした割合です
06:44
Now I'm going to show you
ご覧ください
06:47
how business as usual will affect this.
経済活動がどんなに
06:49
And just watch the change in colors
影響を与えていることか
06:51
in India, China, Europe,
インド 中国 ヨーロッパ
06:53
sub-Saharan Africa
サハラ以南のアフリカ
06:55
as we move on and consume global biomass
人類を持続できなくなるスピードで
06:57
at a rate which is actually not going to be able to sustain us.
生物の多様性は失われています
07:00
See that again.
ご覧ください
07:04
The only places that remain green -- and that's not good news --
緑色のままの地域-朗報ではなく-
07:06
is, in fact, places like the Gobi Desert,
これらはゴビ砂漠
07:08
like the tundra and like the Sahara.
ツンドラ地域 サハラ砂漠といった
07:11
But that doesn't help because there were very few species
最初から生物がほとんどいない
07:13
and volume of biomass there in the first place.
地域ばかりです
07:15
This is the challenge.
大きな問題なのです
07:17
The reason this is happening
問題の原因は
07:19
boils down, in my mind, to one basic problem,
突き詰めれば 私たちが
07:22
which is our inability to perceive the difference
公共の利益と
07:25
between public benefits
私的利益の違いが
07:27
and private profits.
認識できない点にあります
07:29
We tend to constantly ignore public wealth
私たちが公益をないがしろに
07:31
simply because it is in the common wealth,
しがちなのは それが共有のもので
07:34
it's common goods.
みんなのものだからです
07:36
And here's an example from Thailand
タイの例を見てみましょう
07:38
where we found that, because the value of a mangrove is not that much --
マングローブの価値は調査を行った9年間で―
07:40
it's about $600 over the life of nine years that this has been measured --
約600ドルと大したことありません-
07:44
compared to its value as a shrimp farm,
エビの養殖場に転換した場合
07:48
which is more like $9,600,
その価値は9,600ドルに上がります
07:50
there has been a gradual trend to deplete the mangroves
こうしてマングローブは伐採され エビの養殖場へと
07:52
and convert them to shrimp farms.
転換されつつあります
07:55
But of course, if you look at exactly what those profits are,
もちろんキチンと計算すれば
07:57
almost 8,000 of those dollars
8,000ドルは
08:01
are, in fact, subsidies.
補助金なのです
08:03
So you compare the two sides of the coin
さて 比べてみましょう
08:05
and you find that it's more like 1,200 to 600.
今や1,200ドル対600ドル
08:08
That's not that hard.
そんなに差はありませんね
08:10
But on the other hand, if you start measuring,
一方で 養殖場を再度
08:12
how much would it actually cost
生産的なマングローブに
08:14
to restore the land of the shrimp farm
戻すとなると
08:16
back to productive use?
一体いくらかかるのか?
08:18
Once salt deposition and chemical deposition
塩分や化学薬品が一度堆積され
08:20
has had its effects,
その影響後には
08:22
that answer is more like $12,000 of cost.
答えはなんと12,000ドルです
08:24
And if you see the benefits of the mangrove
マングローブがもたらす恩恵―
08:27
in terms of the storm protection and cyclone protection that you get
嵐やサイクロンといった自然災害対策
08:29
and in terms of the fisheries, the fish nurseries,
貧しい人々へ魚をもたらす
08:32
that provide fish for the poor,
養魚場としての価値
08:34
that answer is more like $11,000.
それは11,000ドル
08:36
So now look at the different lens.
別の見方をすると
08:38
If you look at the lens of public wealth
公共の利益の立場から
08:40
as against the lens of private profits,
私的利益を比べてみると
08:42
you get a completely different answer,
全く違った計算結果となります
08:44
which is clearly conservation makes more sense,
すなわち 環境保護は環境破壊よりも
08:46
and not destruction.
ずっと理に適っています
08:49
So is this just a story from South Thailand?
タイだけのお話でしょうか?
08:51
Sorry, this is a global story.
いいえ 地球規模に渡ります
08:54
And here's what the same calculation looks like,
同じようなケースを見てみましょう
08:56
which was done recently -- well I say recently, over the last 10 years --
最近の調査-ここ10年ですが-
08:58
by a group called TRUCOST.
TRUCOSTという団体により
09:01
And they calculated for the top 3,000 corporations,
トップ3,000社に対して環境コストの
09:03
what are the externalities?
調査を行いました
09:05
In other words, what are the costs of doing business as usual?
ビジネスを維持するためのコストです
09:07
This is not illegal stuff, this is basically business as usual,
違法なものでなく 通常のビジネスにおいても
09:09
which causes climate-changing emissions, which have an economic cost.
環境に悪いCO2は排出され経済的損害を導きます
09:12
It causes pollutants being issued, which have an economic cost,
汚染物質も発生し 経済的損害以外にも
09:15
health cost and so on.
健康被害なども引き起こします
09:18
Use of freshwater.
例えば 水の利用
09:20
If you drill water to make coke near a village farm,
コーラのために 村の畑近くに井戸を掘る
09:22
that's not illegal, but yes, it costs the community.
合法ですが 村は影響を受けます
09:24
Can we stop this, and how?
どうやって止めるか?
09:26
I think the first point to make is that we need to recognize natural capital.
まず 自然資源について認識を持つ必要があります
09:28
Basically the stuff of life is natural capital,
基本的に大自然は自然資源です
09:31
and we need to recognize and build that into our systems.
認識し 社会に取り込む必要があります
09:34
When we measure GDP
GDPを計算する際
09:37
as a measure of economic performance at the national level,
経済の実情を測るわけですが
09:39
we don't include our biggest asset at the country level.
国レベルでの最大の資産が入っていません
09:41
When we measure corporate performances,
企業のパフォーマンスを測る際
09:44
we don't include our impacts on nature
環境に与える影響は考慮されてません
09:46
and what our business costs society.
社会に与える負荷も
09:48
That has to stop.
改めなければなりません
09:50
In fact, this was what really inspired my interest in this phase.
これこそ この問題に取り組もうとしたきっかけで
09:52
I began a project way back called the Green Accounting Project.
最初の取り組みはGreen Accounting Projectでした
09:55
That was in the early 2000s
2000年代初頭
09:57
when India was going gung-ho about GDP growth
インドがGDPの成長に躍起になって-
09:59
as the means forward --
ちょうど中国の
10:02
looking at China with its stellar growths of eight, nine, 10 percent
8~10%の目覚ましい成長を見て
10:04
and wondering, why can we do the same?
自分たちも!と触発された頃です
10:06
And a few friends of mine and I
数人の友人と私は
10:08
decided this doesn't make sense.
この成長は社会にとって
10:10
This is going to create more cost to society and more losses.
コストと損失をもたらすものだと結論づけました
10:12
So we decided to do a massive set of calculations
そこで大量の計算に取り組み
10:15
and started producing green accounts for India and its states.
インドにおける緑の会計をはじめました
10:17
That's how my interests began
こうして 私の取り組みは始まり
10:20
and went to the TEEB project.
TEEBに至ります
10:22
Calculating this at the national level is one thing, and it has begun.
国レベルのこうした計算は始まりました
10:24
And the World Bank has acknowledged this
そして世界銀行もこの問題を認識し
10:27
and they've started a project called WAVES --
WAVESプロジェクトを立ち上げました
10:29
Wealth Accounting and Valuation of Ecosystem Services.
Wealth Accounting and Valuation of Ecosystem Services
10:31
But calculating this at the next level,
次のレベル
10:33
that means at the business sector level, is important.
ビジネス分野での取り組みが重要で
10:35
And actually we've done this with the TEEB project.
TEEBの一貫として始まっています
10:37
We've done this for a very difficult case,
中国における森林破壊という
10:39
which was for deforestation in China.
難しい分野にも取り組みました
10:42
This is important, because in China in 1997,
重要な課題です なにしろ
10:44
the Yellow River actually went dry for nine months
1997年 黄河は9ヶ月に渡り干上がり
10:47
causing severe loss of agriculture output
地域に多大な農業被害と
10:50
and pain and loss to society.
損失をもたらしました
10:52
Just a year later the Yangtze flooded,
翌年には長江が氾濫
10:54
causing something like 5,500 deaths.
約5,500人もの犠牲が払われました
10:56
So clearly there was a problem with deforestation.
森林破壊の被害は明白で
10:59
It was associated largely with the construction industry.
ほとんどの原因は建設業にあり
11:01
And the Chinese government responded sensibly
中国政府は賢明な対応をしました
11:04
and placed a ban on felling.
伐採を禁止したのです
11:06
A retrospective on 40 years
この40年を振り返ってみると
11:08
shows that if we had accounted for these costs --
森林破壊によるコスト-
11:10
the cost of loss of topsoil,
表土の流出
11:14
the cost of loss of waterways,
水路の消滅
11:16
the lost productivity, the loss to local communities
生産性の低下 またこうした損失が
11:18
as a result of all these factors,
地域社会にもたらす被害
11:21
desertification and so on --
砂漠化などなど-
11:23
those costs are almost twice as much
こうしたコストは市場の木材価格の
11:25
as the market price of timber.
なんと2倍にもなります
11:27
So in fact, the price of timber in the Beijing marketplace
ということは 北京の木材市場の価格は
11:29
ought to have been three-times what it was
こうした社会へ与えた
11:32
had it reflected the true pain and the costs
被害総額も全て加えると
11:34
to the society within China.
その3倍であるべきでした
11:37
Of course, after the event one can be wise.
当然 一度痛い目にあうと賢くなります
11:39
The way to do this is to do it on a company basis,
企業レベルでの実施は
11:42
to take leadership forward,
企業が主導権をもって
11:44
and to do it for as many important sectors which have a cost,
重要なセクターのコストを
11:46
and to disclose these answers.
開示していく必要があります
11:49
Someone once asked me, "Who is better or worse,
「ユニリーバとP&Gでは
11:51
is it Unilever or is it P&G
インドネシアのジャングルへ
11:53
when it comes to their impact on rainforests in Indonesia?"
より負荷をかけているのは?」
11:55
And I couldn't answer because neither of these companies,
分かりません どちらも
11:58
good though they are and professional though they are,
こうした計算をしていないし
12:00
do not calculate or disclose their externalities.
情報開示もありませんから
12:02
But if we look at companies like PUMA --
一方 プーマは-
12:05
Jochen Zeitz, their CEO and chairman,
CEO兼会長のザイツ氏が
12:07
once challenged me at a function,
かつて 私に言いました
12:09
saying that he's going to implement my project before I finish it.
私よりも先にこのプロジェクトを実施するぞって
12:11
Well I think we kind of did it at the same time, but he's done it.
まあ 同着だったと思いますが
12:14
He's basically worked the cost to PUMA.
環境コストを計算しました
12:17
PUMA has 2.7 billion dollars of turnover,
プーマは270億円の粗利に対し
12:19
300 million dollars of profits,
3億ドルの利益
12:21
200 million dollars after tax,
税引き後利益は2億ドル
12:23
94 million dollars of externalities, cost to business.
それに対し環境コストは9,400万ドル
12:25
Now that's not a happy situation for them,
いい状況とは言えません
12:28
but they have the confidence and the courage
しかし 彼らは胸を張って言えます
12:30
to come forward and say, "Here's what we are measuring.
「数字に落とし込み
12:32
We are measuring it because we know
管理できるようにするため
12:35
that you cannot manage what you do not measure."
環境コストを計算しました」と
12:37
That's an example, I think, for us to look at
こうしたケースに
12:39
and for us to draw comfort from.
勇気づけられます
12:41
If more companies did this,
もっと多くの会社が参加すれば
12:43
and if more sectors engaged this as sectors,
多くのセクターで参加者が増えれば
12:45
you could have analysts, business analysts,
私たちのような一般消費者やNGOが
12:47
and you could have people like us and consumers and NGOs
ビジネスを分析し 各会社を並べて
12:49
actually look and compare the social performance of companies.
その社会貢献度を比較できます
12:52
Today we can't yet do that, but I think the path is laid out.
現在 そこまでに至っていませんが
12:55
This can be done.
不可能なことではありません
12:58
And I'm delighted that the Institute of Chartered Accountants in the U.K.
英国勅許会計士協会のような団体が
13:00
has already set up a coalition to do this,
国際的な協力体制を築いていることは
13:02
an international coalition.
喜ばしいことです
13:04
The other favorite, if you like, solution for me
お次は私のお気に入り
13:06
is the creation of green carbon markets.
グリーン・カーボン市場の創出です
13:09
And by the way, these are my favorites --
ところで私のお気に入りは-
13:11
externalities calculation and green carbon markets.
環境コストとグリーン・カーボン市場です
13:13
TEEB has more than a dozen separate groups of solutions
TEEBには問題別にグループがあります
13:15
including protected area evaluation
例えば 保護区の査定
13:19
and payments for ecosystem services
生態系への投資
13:21
and eco-certification and you name it, but these are the favorites.
そしてエコ認証 その中でも お気に入りはこれ
13:23
What's green carbon?
さて グリーン・カーボンとは何か?
13:26
Today what we have is basically a brown carbon marketplace.
現在あるのはブラウン・カーボン市場
13:28
It's about energy emissions.
エネルギー排出に関するもので
13:30
The European Union ETS is the main marketplace.
E.U.のETSが主要な市場です
13:32
It's not doing too well. We've over-issued.
供給過剰のためインフレ状態で
13:34
A bit like inflation: you over-issue currency,
うまくいってません
13:36
you get what you see, declining prices.
価格の下落が見られます
13:38
But that's all about energy and industry.
これはエネルギーと産業についてです
13:41
But what we're missing is also some other emissions
足りないのは他の排出に対する考慮で
13:44
like black carbon, that is soot.
煤煙排出のブラック・カーボン
13:46
What we're also missing is blue carbon,
そして海洋のブルー・カーボン
13:48
which, by the way, is the largest store of carbon --
これは炭素の供給源では最大です-
13:50
more than 55 percent.
なんと55%
13:52
Thankfully, the flux, in other words, the flow of emissions
幸いなことに 海洋から大気への
13:54
from the ocean to the atmosphere and vice versa,
供給の流れそしてその逆も
13:56
is more or less balanced.
バランスがとれています
13:58
In fact, what's being absorbed
私たちの排出量の
14:00
is something like 25 percent of our emissions,
25%ほどは
14:02
which then leads to acidification
海で酸性化ないし
14:05
or lower alkalinity in oceans.
弱アルカリ化されます
14:07
More of that in a minute.
ほんの1分ほどで
14:09
And finally, there's deforestation,
最後に森林破壊と
14:11
and there's emission of methane
農業により排出の
14:13
from agriculture.
メタンによる
14:15
Green carbon,
グリーン・カーボン―
14:17
which is the deforestation and agricultural emissions,
―森林破壊と農業により排出
14:19
and blue carbon
そしてブルー・カーボン
14:21
together comprise 25 percent of our emissions.
2つで地球温暖化ガスの25%を占めます
14:23
We have the means already in our hands,
対策方法は既にあるのです
14:25
through a structure, through a mechanism, called REDD Plus --
REDD Plusと呼ばれる森林破壊による
14:27
a scheme for the reduced emissions
排出量の減少対策の
14:29
from deforestation and forest degradation.
しくみによるものです
14:31
And already Norway has contributed a billion dollars each
ノルウェーは既にインドネシア ブラジルそれぞれに
14:34
towards Indonesia and Brazil
REDD Plus実行のため
14:37
to implement this Red Plus scheme.
10億ドルもの援助を行っています
14:39
So we actually have some movement forward.
取り組みは既にはじまっているのです
14:41
But the thing is to do a lot more of that.
でも問題はこれだけじゃありません
14:43
Will this solve the problem? Will economics solve everything?
経済によりすべてが解決されるのでしょうか?
14:45
Well I'm afraid not.
そうはいきません
14:48
There is an area that is the oceans, coral reefs.
海にはサンゴ礁が広がる地域があります
14:50
As you can see,
ご覧のように
14:53
they cut across the entire globe
地球中で
14:55
all the way from Micronesia
ミクロネシア地域
14:57
across Indonesia, Malaysia, India, Madagascar
インドネシア マレーシア そしてマダガスカル
14:59
and to the West of the Caribbean.
さらには西カリブまで
15:02
These red dots, these red areas,
赤い点の地域では
15:04
basically provide the food and livelihood
サンゴ礁により生活の糧が
15:06
for more than half a billion people.
5億以上の人々に供給されています
15:08
So that's almost an eighth of society.
全体のなんと8分の1もの人々です
15:10
And the sad thing is that, as these coral reefs are lost --
悲劇なのはこうしたサンゴ礁は失われ-
15:13
and scientists tell us
専門家によると
15:16
that any level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere above 350 parts per million
ある一定レベル以上の大気中の二酸化炭素は
15:18
is too dangerous for the survival of these reefs --
サンゴ礁には有毒過ぎる-
15:21
we are not only risking the extinction
私たちはサンゴ礁を
15:24
of the entire coral species, the warm water corals,
絶滅の危機に晒しているだけでなく
15:26
we're not only risking a fourth of all fish species which are in the oceans,
また海に住む海洋生物の4分の1をも絶滅させ
15:28
but we are risking the very lives and livelihoods
それだけではなく発展途上国に住む
15:32
of more than 500 million people
5億もの貧しい人々をも
15:34
who live in the developing world in poor countries.
危険に晒しているのです
15:37
So in selecting targets of 450 parts per million
二酸化炭素の濃度目標を450ppmとし
15:40
and selecting two degrees at the climate negotiations,
温度の上昇を2度までと妥協することで
15:43
what we have done is we've made an ethical choice.
ある倫理的な決断を下しました
15:46
We've actually kind of made an ethical choice in society
すなわち こうした地域にサンゴ礁を
15:49
to not have coral reefs.
維持しないというものです
15:52
Well what I will say to you in parting
もっとも こうしたことは
15:54
is that we may have done that.
知らずに行われたことですが
15:56
Let's think about it and what it means,
一体どういう意味を持つのでしょう?
15:58
but please, let's not do more of that.
もう これ以上はやめましょう
16:00
Because mother nature only has that much
母なる自然にはもう環境のインフラ
16:02
in ecological infrastructure and that much natural capital.
そして自然資源は残されていないのです
16:04
I don't think we can afford too much of such ethical choices.
これ以上余裕はありません
16:07
Thank you.
ありがとうございます
16:10
(Applause)
(拍手)
16:12
Translated by SHIGERU MASUKAWA
Reviewed by Akari Takenishi

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About the speaker:

Pavan Sukhdev - Environmental economist
A banker by training, Pavan Sukhdev runs the numbers on greening up -- showing that green economies are an effective engine for creating jobs and creating wealth.

Why you should listen

In 2008, Sukhdev took a sabbatical from Deutsche Bank, where he'd worked for fifteen years, to write up two massive and convincing reports on the green economy. For UNEP, his “Green Economy Report” synthesized years of research to show, with real numbers, that environmentally sound development is not a bar to growth but rather a new engine for growing wealth and creating employment in the face of persistent poverty. The groundbreaking TEEB (formally “The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity”) report counts the global economic benefits of biodiversity. It encourages countries to develop and publish “Natural capital accounts” tracking the value of plants, animal, water and other “natural wealth” alongside traditional financial measures in the hope of changing how decisions are made. In his book, Corporation 2020, he envisions tomorrow’s corporations as agents of an inclusive, green economy. He is now the CEO of Gist Advisory, a sustainability consulting firm.

More profile about the speaker
Pavan Sukhdev | Speaker | TED.com