TED2009
Sean Gourley: The mathematics of war
Sean Gourley om krigens matematik
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Ved at trække på rådata fra medierne og plotte dem på en graf, er Sean Gourley og hans hold kommet frem til en forbløffende konklusion om den moderne krigs natur -- og muligvis en model for hvordan man kan løse konflikter.
Sean Gourley - Physicist and military theorist
Sean Gourley, trained as a physicist, has turned his scientific mind to analyzing data about a messier topic: modern war and conflict. He is a TED Fellow. Full bio
Sean Gourley, trained as a physicist, has turned his scientific mind to analyzing data about a messier topic: modern war and conflict. He is a TED Fellow. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
We look around the media, as we see on the news from Iraq,
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Vi ser os omkring i medierne og når vi ser nyhederne fra
00:15
Afghanistan, Sierra Leone,
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Irak, Afghanistan, Sierra Leone,
00:18
and the conflict seems incomprehensible to us.
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og konflikterne virker uforståelige for os.
00:22
And that's certainly how it seemed to me when I started this project.
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Og det var bestemt også sådan det så ud for mig da jeg startede dette projekt.
00:26
But as a physicist,
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Som en fysiker,
00:28
I thought, well if you give me some data,
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tænkte jeg, hvis jeg får nogle data,
00:31
I could maybe understand this. You know, give us a go.
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burde jeg kunne forstå det. I ved, giv os et forsøg.
00:33
So as a naive New Zealander
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Som en naiv New Zealænder
00:35
I thought, well I'll go to the Pentagon.
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tænkte jeg at jeg kunne spørge Pentagon.
00:37
Can you get me some information?
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Kan I give mig nogle informationer?
00:39
(Laughter)
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(Latter)
00:42
No. So I had to think a little harder.
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Nej. Så jeg tænkte mig om.
00:46
And I was watching the news one night in Oxford.
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Og mens jeg så nyhederne en nat i Oxford.
00:49
And I looked down at the chattering heads on my channel of choice.
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Og kiggede på de snakkende hoveder på min ynglingskanal.
00:52
And I saw that there was information there.
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Og jeg så at her var informationer.
00:54
There was data within the streams of news that we consume.
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Der er data i den nyhedsstrøm vi forbruger.
00:57
All this noise around us actually has information.
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Al den støj omkring os er faktisk information.
01:01
So what I started thinking was,
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Så hvad jeg begyndte at tænke på var,
01:03
perhaps there is something like open source intelligence here.
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måske er den en slags open source efterretninger her.
01:06
If we can get enough of these streams of information together,
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Hvis vi samlede nok af disse strømme af informationer sammen,
01:09
we can perhaps start to understand the war.
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kunne vi måske forstå krigen.
01:12
So this is exactly what I did. We started bringing a team together,
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Så det var præcist hvad jeg gjorde. Vi samlede et hold,
01:15
an interdisciplinary team of scientists,
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et tværfagligt hold af videnskabsfolk,
01:17
of economists, mathematicians.
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af økonomer, matematikere.
01:20
We brought these guys together and we started to try and solve this.
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Vi samlede disse gutter og vi forsøgte at forstå og løse dette.
01:23
We did it in three steps.
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Vi gjorde det i tre trin.
01:25
The first step we did was to collect. We did 130 different sources of information --
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Det første trin var at indsamle. Vi havde 130 forskellige kilder af information --
01:29
from NGO reports to newspapers and cable news.
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fra NGO rapporter til aviser til TV.
01:32
We brought this raw data in and we filtered it.
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Vi samlede disse rådata og filtrerede dem.
01:35
We extracted the key bits on information to build the database.
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Vi udledte nøgleinformationerne og byggede en database.
01:38
That database contained
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Denne database indeholdt
01:40
the timing of attacks,
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tidspunktet for angreb,
01:42
the location, the size and the weapons used.
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lokaliteten, størrelsen og hvilke våben der blev brugt.
01:44
It's all in the streams of information we consume daily,
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Alt dette i den strøm af informationer vi forbruger daglig,
01:47
we just have to know how to pull it out.
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vi skal bare vide hvordan vi skal trække dem ud.
01:49
And once we had this we could start doing some cool stuff.
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Og ligeså snart vi vidste det, kunne vi lave nogle smarte ting.
01:51
What if we were to look at the distribution of the sizes of attacks?
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Hvad hvis vi kiggede på fordelingen af angrebenes størrelse?
01:54
What would that tell us?
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Hvad vil det fortælle os?
01:56
So we started doing this. And you can see here
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Så vi startede med dette. Og som I kan se her
01:58
on the horizontal axis
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på den vandrette akse
02:00
you've got the number of people killed in an attack
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der har I antallet af mennesker dræbt i et angreb
02:02
or the size of the attack.
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eller størrelsen af angrebet.
02:04
And on the vertical axis you've got the number of attacks.
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Og på den lodrette akse har I antallet af angreb.
02:07
So we plot data for sample on this.
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Så vi plottede vores data her.
02:09
You see some sort of random distribution --
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Ser I en slags tilfældig fordeling --
02:11
perhaps 67 attacks, one person was killed,
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måske 67 angreb, hvor en person er dræbt,
02:14
or 47 attacks where seven people were killed.
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eller 47 angreb hvor 7 personer bliver dræbt.
02:17
We did this exact same thing for Iraq.
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Vi gjorde det samme for Irak.
02:19
And we didn't know, for Iraq what we were going to find.
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Og for Irak vidste vi ikke hvad vi ville finde.
02:22
It turns out what we found was pretty surprising.
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Det viste sig at det vi fandt var meget overaskende.
02:26
You take all of the conflict,
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I tager alle disse konflikter,
02:28
all of the chaos, all of the noise,
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alt kaos, alt støjen,
02:30
and out of that
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og ud af dette
02:32
comes this precise mathematical distribution
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kommer denne nøjagtige matematiske fordeling
02:34
of the way attacks are ordered in this conflict.
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af hvordan angreb er ordnede i denne konflikt.
02:37
This blew our mind.
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Det blæste vores hjerne ud.
02:39
Why should a conflict like Iraq have this
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Hvorfor skulle en konflikt som den i Irak have et
02:43
as its fundamental signature?
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så grundlæggende aftryk?
02:45
Why should there be order in war?
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Hvorfor skulle der være orden i krig?
02:47
We didn't really understand that.
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Vi forstod det virkeligt ikke.
02:49
We thought maybe there is something special about Iraq.
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Vi tænkte at der måtte være noget specielt ved Irak.
02:53
So we looked at a few more conflicts.
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Så vi kiggede på nogle flere konflikter.
02:55
We looked at Colombia, we looked at Afghanistan,
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Vi kiggede på Colombia, vi kiggede på Afghanistan,
02:57
and we looked at Senegal.
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og vi kiggede på Senegal.
02:59
And the same pattern emerged in each conflict.
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Og det samme mønster viste sig i hver konflikt.
03:01
This wasn't supposed to happen.
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Det var ikke hvad vi forventede.
03:03
These are different wars, with different religious factions,
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Dette var forskellige krige, med forskellige religiøse fraktioner,
03:06
different political factions, and different socioeconomic problems.
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forskellige politiske fraktioner, og forskellige socioøkonomiske problemer.
03:09
And yet the fundamental patterns underlying them
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Og stadigvæk var der et grundlæggende ens mønster under dem
03:13
are the same.
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er det samme.
03:16
So we went a little wider.
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Så vi kiggede lidt bredere.
03:18
We looked around the world at all the data we could get our hands on.
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Vi så os om i verden efter nogle data vi kunne få fat på.
03:21
From Peru to Indonesia,
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Fra Peru til Indonesien,
03:24
we studied this same pattern again.
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vi studerede disse mønstre igen.
03:26
And we found that not only
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Og vi fandt ikke bare
03:29
were the distributions these straight lines,
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at fordelingerne disse lige linjer,
03:31
but the slope of these lines, they clustered around
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men også hældningen af linjerne, de fordelte sig omkring
03:33
this value of alpha equals 2.5.
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denne værdi af alfa på 2,5.
03:36
And we could generate an equation
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og vi kunne lave en ligning
03:38
that could predict the likelihood of an attack.
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som kunne forudsige sandsynligheden af et angreb.
03:41
What we're saying here
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Hvad vi siger her
03:43
is the probability of an attack killing X number of people
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er at sandsynligheden for et angreb der dræber X antal mennesker
03:47
in a country like Iraq
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i et land som Irak
03:49
is equal to a constant, times the size of that attack,
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er lig med en konstant ganget med størrelsen af angrebet,
03:52
raised to the power of negative alpha.
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opløftet med potensen af den negative værdi af alfa.
03:55
And negative alpha is the slope of that line I showed you before.
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Og den negative alfa er hældningen af den linje jeg viste jer før.
04:01
So what?
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Og hvad så?
04:03
This is data, statistics. What does it tell us about these conflicts?
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Dette er data, statistik. Hvad fortæller det os om disse konflikter?
04:06
That was a challenge we had to face as physicists.
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Dette var en udfordring vi måtte imødegå som fysikere.
04:09
How do we explain this?
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Hvordan kunne vi forklare det?
04:12
And what we really found was that alpha,
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Og hvad vi fandt var at alfa,
04:14
if we think about it, is the organizational
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hvis vi tænker os om, er den organisatoriske
04:16
structure of the insurgency.
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struktur af oprøret.
04:19
Alpha is the distribution of the sizes of attacks,
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Alfa er fordelingen af størrelserne af disse angreb,
04:22
which is really the distribution
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hvilket er fordelingen
04:24
of the group strength carrying out the attacks.
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af disse gruppers styrke til at udføre disse angreb.
04:26
So we look at a process of group dynamics:
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Så vi kiggede på en proces af gruppedynamik:
04:28
coalescence and fragmentation,
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sammenslutning og fragmentering
04:31
groups coming together, groups breaking apart.
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grupper som forenes, grupper som splittes.
04:33
And we start running the numbers on this. Can we simulate it?
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Og vi begyndte at analysere det. Kan vi simulere det?
04:36
Can we create the kind of patterns that we're seeing
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Kan vi genskabe det mønster som vi ser
04:39
in places like Iraq?
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på steder som Irak?
04:42
Turns out we kind of do a reasonable job.
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Det viste sig at vi kunne gøre et hæderligt job.
04:44
We can run these simulations.
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Vi kan køre disse simulationer
04:46
We can recreate this using a process of group dynamics
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Vi kan genskabe dem ved at bruge gruppedynamiske processer
04:49
to explain the patterns that we see
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til at forklare de mønstre vi ser
04:51
all around the conflicts around the world.
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i alle disse konflikter rundt om i verden.
04:56
So what's going on?
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Så hvad foregår?
04:58
Why should these different -- seemingly different conflicts
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Hvorfor skulle disse forskellige -- åbenlyse forskellige konflikter
05:01
have the same patterns?
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have det samme mønster?
05:03
Now what I believe is going on is that
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Nu tror jeg at hvad det foregår er at
05:06
the insurgent forces, they evolve over time. They adapt.
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oprørstyrkerne, de udvikler sig over tid. De tilpasser sig.
05:10
And it turns out there is only one solution
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Og det viser sig at der er kun en løsning
05:12
to fight a much stronger enemy.
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for at bekæmpe en meget stærkere fjende.
05:14
And if you don't find that solution as an insurgent force,
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Og hvis du ikke finder den løsning som oprørsstyrke,
05:17
you don't exist.
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vil du ikke eksistere.
05:19
So every insurgent force that is ongoing,
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Så enhver oprørsstyrke som er operativ,
05:21
every conflict that is ongoing,
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i enhver konflikt som er i gang,
05:23
it's going to look something like this.
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vil det se ud som dette.
05:25
And that is what we think is happening.
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Og det er det vi tror som sker.
05:28
Taking it forward, how do we change it?
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For at tage det fra start, hvordan kan vi ændre dette?
05:30
How do we end a war like Iraq?
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Hvordan kan vi slutte en krig som den i Irak?
05:32
What does it look like?
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Hvordan ser det ud?
05:34
Alpha is the structure. It's got a stable state at 2.5.
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Alfa er strukturen. Den er stabil omkring på 2,5.
05:37
This is what wars look like when they continue.
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Det er hvordan krige ser ud når de fortsætter.
05:41
We've got to change that.
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Vi må ændre dette.
05:43
We can push it up:
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Vi kan skubbe den op:
05:45
the forces become more fragmented;
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Styrkerne bliver mere splittede,
05:47
there is more of them, but they are weaker.
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men der er flere af dem, men de er svagere.
05:51
Or we push it down:
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Eller vi kan skubbe den ned:
05:53
they're more robust; there is less groups;
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De bliver mere robuste, men der er færre af grupper,
05:55
but perhaps you can sit and talk to them.
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og måske kan du sætte dig ned og forhandle med dem.
05:59
So this graph here, I'm going to show you now.
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Så i den graf, som jeg vil vise jer nu.
06:01
No one has seen this before. This is literally
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Ingen har set den før. Dette er bogstaveligt talt
06:04
stuff that we've come through last week.
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ting som vi har kommet frem til i denne uge.
06:06
And we see the evolution of Alpha through time.
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Vi ser en udvikling af alfa over tid.
06:10
We see it start. And we see it grow up to the stable state
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Vi ser den ved start. Og vi ser at den vokser til et stabilt leje
06:13
the wars around the world look like.
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som krige rundt omkring i verden ser ud.
06:15
And it stays there through the invasion of Fallujah
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Og den bliver der gennem invasionen af Fallujah
06:18
until the Samarra bombings in the
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indtil Samarra bombningen i
06:20
Iraqi elections of '06.
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den irakiske valgkamp i 06.
06:23
And the system gets perturbed. It moves upwards
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Og system bliver forstyrret. Den bevæger sig opad
06:25
to a fragmented state.
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til et fragmenteret leje.
06:27
This is when the surge happens.
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Det er her troppeforøgelsen sker.
06:29
And depending on who you ask,
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Og afhængigt af hvem du spørger
06:31
the surge was supposed to push it up even further.
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troppeforøgelsen skulle få den til at stige yderligere.
06:34
The opposite happened.
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Men det modsatte skete.
06:36
The groups became stronger.
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Grupperne blev stærkere.
06:38
They became more robust.
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De blev mere robuste.
06:40
And so I'm thinking, right, great, it's going to keep going down.
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Så nu tror jeg at den vil forsætte med at gå nedad.
06:43
We can talk to them. We can get a solution. The opposite happened.
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Vi kan tale med dem. Vi kan få en løsning. Det modsatte skete.
06:46
It's moved up again. The groups are more fragmented.
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Den bevægede sig op igen. Grupperne blev mere fragmenterede.
06:49
And this tells me one of two things.
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Og dette fortæller mig to ting.
06:51
Either we're back where we started
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Enten er vi tilbage hvor vi startede
06:54
and the surge has had no effect;
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og troppeforøgelsen havde ingen effekt
06:56
or finally the groups have been fragmented to the extent
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eller endeligt blev grupperne så fragmenterede
07:00
that we can start to think about maybe moving out.
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at vi kan begynde at tænke på at trække os ud.
07:04
I don't know what the answer is to that.
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Jeg ved ikke hvad svaret er på det.
07:06
But I know that we should be looking at the structure of the insurgency
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Men jeg ved at vi skal kigge på strukturen af oprøret
07:09
to answer that question.
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for at besvare spørgsmålet.
07:11
Thank you.
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Mange tak.
07:13
(Applause)
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(Bifald)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Sean Gourley - Physicist and military theoristSean Gourley, trained as a physicist, has turned his scientific mind to analyzing data about a messier topic: modern war and conflict. He is a TED Fellow.
Why you should listen
Sean Gourley's twin passions are physics (working on nanoscale blue-light lasers and self-assembled quantum nanowires) and politics (he once ran for a national elected office back home in New Zealand).
A Rhodes scholar, he's spent the past five years working at Oxford on complex adaptive systems and collective intelligent systems -- basically, using data to understand the nature of human conflict. As he puts it, "This research has taken me all over the world from the Pentagon, to the House of Lords, the United Nations and most recently to Iraq". Originally from New Zealand, he now lives in San Francisco, where he is the co-founder and CTO of Quid which is building a global intelligence platform. He's a 2009 TED Fellow.
In December 2009, Gourley and his team's research was published in the scientific journal Nature. He is co-founder and CTO of Quid.
Sean Gourley | Speaker | TED.com