TED2010
Michael Shermer: The pattern behind self-deception
Michael Shermer: Uzorak iza samoobmane
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Michael Shermer kaže da se ljudska tendencija vjerovanju čudnih stvari--od otmica vanzemaljaca do rašlji--svela na dvije najosnovnije moždane vještine preživljavanja. Objašnjava što su one i kako nam donose nevolje.
Michael Shermer - Skeptic
Michael Shermer debunks myths, superstitions and urban legends -- and explains why we believe them. Along with publishing Skeptic Magazine, he's author of Why People Believe Weird Things and The Mind of the Market. Full bio
Michael Shermer debunks myths, superstitions and urban legends -- and explains why we believe them. Along with publishing Skeptic Magazine, he's author of Why People Believe Weird Things and The Mind of the Market. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
So since I was here last in '06,
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Od kada sam zadnji puta bio ovdje, 2006.g.,
00:19
we discovered that global climate change
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otkrili smo da su globalne klimatske promjene
00:21
is turning out to be a pretty serious issue,
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ispale prilično ozbiljni problem.
00:23
so we covered that fairly extensively
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Tako da smo dosta pisali o tome
00:25
in Skeptic magazine.
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u časopisu Skeptic.
00:27
We investigate all kinds
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Istraživali smo razne vrste
00:29
of scientific and quasi-scientific controversies,
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znanstvenih i kvazi-znanstvenih kontroverzi.
00:32
but it turns out we don't have to worry about any of this
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Ali ispalo je da se ne trebamo zabrinjavati zbog nijedne od njih
00:34
because the world's going to end in 2012.
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jer će smak svijeta biti 2012.
00:36
Another update:
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Još jedno podsjećanje:
00:38
You will recall I introduced you guys
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Sjetit ćete se da sam vas upoznao
00:40
to the Quadro Tracker.
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s Quadro tragačem.
00:42
It's like a water dowsing device.
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To je poput rašlji za otkrivanje vode.
00:44
It's just a hollow piece of plastic with an antenna that swivels around.
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To je samo šuplji komad plastike s antenom koja se okreće oko svoje osi.
00:47
And you walk around, and it points to things.
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I šetate se uokolo, i ona pokazuje na stvari.
00:49
Like if you're looking for marijuana in students' lockers,
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Na primjer, ako tražite marihuanu u studentskim ormarićima,
00:52
it'll point right to somebody.
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pokazat će ravno na nekoga.
00:54
Oh, sorry. (Laughter)
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Oh, ispričavam se.
00:56
This particular one that was given to me
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Baš ovaj koji su mi dali
00:58
finds golf balls,
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pronalazi golf loptice
01:00
especially if you're at a golf course
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naročito ako ste na golf terenu
01:02
and you check under enough bushes.
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i provjeravate ispod dovoljno grmlja.
01:05
Well, under the category of "What's the harm of silly stuff like this?"
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Pa, u kategoriji "Koja je šteta od ovakve glupe stvari"
01:08
this device, the ADE 651,
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ova sprava, ADE 651,
01:11
was sold to the Iraqi government
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je prodana iračkoj vladi
01:14
for 40,000 dollars apiece.
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za 40,000 dolara po komadu
01:16
It's just like this one, completely worthless,
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ona je poput ove ovdje, potpuno beskorisna,
01:18
in which it allegedly worked by "electrostatic
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radi navodno pomoću "privlačenja
01:20
magnetic ion attraction,"
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magnetiziranih iona"
01:24
which translates to
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što se prevodi kao
01:26
"pseudoscientific baloney" -- would be the nice word --
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"pseudoznanstvena glupost"--što bi bila dobra riječ--
01:29
in which you string together a bunch of words that sound good,
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u kojoj nižete zajedno hrpu riječi koje dobro zvuče,
01:31
but it does absolutely nothing.
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ali ne radi apsolutno ništa.
01:33
In this case, at trespass points,
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U ovom slučaju, na kontrolnim točkama,
01:36
allowing people to go through
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dopuštajući ljudima da prođu
01:38
because your little tracker device said they were okay,
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jer je vaša mala sprava za pretraživanje rekla da je sve u redu,
01:41
actually cost lives.
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zapravo ugrožava živote.
01:44
So there is a danger to pseudoscience,
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Tako da postoji opasnost od pseudoznanosti,
01:46
in believing in this sort of thing.
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u vjerovanju u takve vrste stvari.
01:49
So what I want to talk about today is belief.
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Tako da ono o čemu želim pričati danas je vjerovanje.
01:52
I want to believe,
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Želim vjerovati,
01:54
and you do too.
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a i vi također.
01:56
And in fact, I think my thesis here is that
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I u stvari, mislim da je moja teza ovdje da je
01:58
belief is the natural state of things.
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vjerovanje prirodno stanje stvari.
02:00
It is the default option. We just believe.
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Ovo je zadana opcija. Mi jednostavno vjerujemo.
02:02
We believe all sorts of things.
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Vjerujemo u različite stvari.
02:04
Belief is natural;
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Vjerovanje je prirodno.
02:06
disbelief, skepticism, science, is not natural.
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Manjak vjerovanja, skeptičnost, znanost, nisu prirodni.
02:08
It's more difficult.
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To je puno teže.
02:10
It's uncomfortable to not believe things.
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neugodno je nevjerovati u stvari.
02:12
So like Fox Mulder on "X-Files,"
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Pa poput Fox Muldera u "Dosjeima X"
02:15
who wants to believe in UFOs? Well, we all do,
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tko želi vjerovati u NLO-e? Pa, mi svi to radimo.
02:18
and the reason for that is because
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I razlog za to je zato
02:20
we have a belief engine in our brains.
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što imamo motor za vjerovanje u našem mozgu.
02:23
Essentially, we are pattern-seeking primates.
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U osnovi, mi smo primati koji tragaju za uzorcima.
02:26
We connect the dots: A is connected to B; B is connected to C.
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Povezujemo točkice: A je povezano s B, B je povezano s C.
02:29
And sometimes A really is connected to B,
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I ponekad je A stvarno povezano s B:
02:32
and that's called association learning.
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I to se zove asocijativno učenje.
02:34
We find patterns, we make those connections,
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Pronalazimo uzorke, povezujemo ih,
02:37
whether it's Pavlov's dog here
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Bilo da je Pavlovljev pas ovdje
02:39
associating the sound of the bell with the food,
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koji povezuje zvuk zvona s hranom,
02:42
and then he salivates to the sound of the bell,
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i tada slini na zvuk zvona,
02:44
or whether it's a Skinnerian rat,
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ili bilo da je riječ o Skinnerovom štakoru,
02:46
in which he's having an association
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koji ima asocijacije
02:48
between his behavior and a reward for it,
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između svog ponašanja i nagrade za to,
02:50
and therefore he repeats the behavior.
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i stoga ponavlja svoje ponašanje.
02:52
In fact, what Skinner discovered
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U stvari, ono što je Skinner otkrio
02:54
is that, if you put a pigeon in a box like this,
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je to, da ako stavite goluba u kutiju poput ove,
02:57
and he has to press one of these two keys,
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i on mora pritisnuti jednu od ove dvije tipke,
02:59
and he tries to figure out what the pattern is,
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i trudi se shvatiti koji je uzorak,
03:01
and you give him a little reward in the hopper box there --
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i date mu malu nagradu u kutiji ovdje.
03:03
if you just randomly assign rewards
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Ako nasumično odredite nagrade,
03:06
such that there is no pattern,
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tako da nema uzorka,
03:08
they will figure out any kind of pattern.
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naći će bilo kakav uzorak.
03:10
And whatever they were doing just before they got the reward,
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I što god radili prije nego što su dobili nagradu,
03:12
they repeat that particular pattern.
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ponavljat će upravo taj uzorak.
03:14
Sometimes it was even spinning around twice counterclockwise,
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Ponekad je to čak i dvostruko okretanje suprotno od kazaljke na satu,
03:17
once clockwise and peck the key twice.
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jedno u smjeru kazaljke na satu i kljucanje tipke dvaput.
03:20
And that's called superstition,
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I to se zove praznovjerje.
03:22
and that, I'm afraid,
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I to, bojim se,
03:24
we will always have with us.
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ćemo uvijek imati u nama.
03:26
I call this process "patternicity" --
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Zovem ovaj proces "uzorkovanje",
03:28
that is, the tendency to find meaningful patterns
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a to je, tendencija pronalaženju smislenih uzoraka
03:30
in both meaningful and meaningless noise.
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i u smislenom i besmislenom šumu.
03:33
When we do this process, we make two types of errors.
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Kada smo u ovom procesu, činimo dva tipa pogrešaka.
03:36
A Type I error, or false positive,
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Tip I pogreška, ili lažno pozitivna,
03:38
is believing a pattern is real
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je vjerovanje da je uzorak stvaran
03:40
when it's not.
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kad nije.
03:42
Our second type of error is a false negative.
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Naš drugi tip pogreške je lažno negativni.
03:44
A Type II error is not believing
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Tip II pogreška je nevjerovanje
03:46
a pattern is real when it is.
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da je uzorak stvaran kad je.
03:49
So let's do a thought experiment.
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Napravimo misaoni pokus.
03:51
You are a hominid three million years ago
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Vi ste hominid prije tri milijuna godina
03:53
walking on the plains of Africa.
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šetate visoravnima Afrike.
03:56
Your name is Lucy, okay?
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Ime vam je Lucy, u redu?
03:58
And you hear a rustle in the grass.
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I čujete šuškanje u travi.
04:00
Is it a dangerous predator,
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Da li je to opasni predator,
04:02
or is it just the wind?
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ili je to samo vjetar?
04:04
Your next decision could be the most important one of your life.
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Vaša slijedeća odluka bi mogla biti najvažnija u vašem životu.
04:07
Well, if you think that the rustle in the grass is a dangerous predator
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Ako mislite da je šuškanje u travi opasan predator
04:10
and it turns out it's just the wind,
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a ispadne da je to samo vjetar,
04:12
you've made an error in cognition,
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počinili ste pogrešku u mišljenju,
04:14
made a Type I error, false positive.
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pogrešku tipa I, lažno pozitivnu.
04:16
But no harm. You just move away.
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Ali nema štete. Samo odete dalje.
04:18
You're more cautious. You're more vigilant.
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Oprezniji ste. Pažljiviji ste.
04:20
On the other hand, if you believe that the rustle in the grass is just the wind,
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S druge strane, ako vjerujete da je šuškanje u travi samo vjetar,
04:22
and it turns out it's a dangerous predator,
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a ispadne da je to opasni predator,
04:25
you're lunch.
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vi ste ručak.
04:27
You've just won a Darwin award.
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Upravo ste osvojili Darwinovu nagradu.
04:29
You've been taken out of the gene pool.
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Izbačeni ste iz genskog potencijala.
04:31
Now the problem here is that
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Ovdje je problem u tome da
04:33
patternicities will occur whenever the cost
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uzorkovanja će se pojaviti kad god je cijena
04:35
of making a Type I error
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činjenja pogreške tipa I
04:37
is less than the cost of making a Type II error.
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manja od cijene činjenja pogreške tipa II.
04:39
This is the only equation in the talk by the way.
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Ovo je, usput, jedina jednadžba u predavanju.
04:41
We have a pattern detection problem
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Imamo problem u otkrivanju uzoraka
04:43
that is assessing the difference between a Type I and a Type II error
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to jest ocjenjivanje razlike između pogreške tipa jedan i tipa dva
04:46
is highly problematic,
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je veoma problematično,
04:48
especially in split-second, life-and-death situations.
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pogotovo u djeliću sekunde, situacijama za život ili smrt .
04:51
So the default position
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Tako da je početna postavka
04:53
is just: Believe all patterns are real --
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zapravo "vjerovanje da su svi uzorci stvarni".
04:55
All rustles in the grass are dangerous predators
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"Sva šuškanja u travi su opasni predatori
04:58
and not just the wind.
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a ne samo vjetar".
05:00
And so I think that we evolved ...
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Mislim da smo evoluirali...
05:02
there was a natural selection for the propensity for our belief engines,
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postojala je prirodna selekcija sklonosti naših motora za vjerovanje,
05:05
our pattern-seeking brain processes,
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naših procesa u mozgu za traganje za uzorkom,
05:07
to always find meaningful patterns
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da se uvijek nađu smisleni uzorci
05:09
and infuse them with these sort of
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i ubaciti ih skupa s ovom vrstom
05:11
predatory or intentional agencies that I'll come back to.
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predatorskog ili namjernog djelovanja na koja ću se vratiti.
05:14
So for example, what do you see here?
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Na primjer, što vidite ovdje?
05:16
It's a horse head, that's right.
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To je konjska glava, tako je.
05:18
It looks like a horse. It must be a horse.
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Izgleda kao konjska glava. Mora to biti konj.
05:20
That's a pattern.
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To je uzorak.
05:22
And is it really a horse?
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Ali da li je to zaista konj?
05:24
Or is it more like a frog?
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Ili više sliči na žabu?
05:27
See, our pattern detection device,
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Vidite, naša sprava za otkrivanje uzoraka,
05:29
which appears to be located in the anterior cingulate cortex --
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koja je izgleda smještena u prednjoj cingulatnoj moždanoj kori--
05:32
it's our little detection device there --
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ta naša mala sprava za otkrivanje tamo --
05:35
can be easily fooled, and this is the problem.
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može se lako zabuniti, i to je problem.
05:37
For example, what do you see here?
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Na primjer, što vidite ovdje?
05:39
Yes, of course, it's a cow.
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Da, naravno. To je krava.
05:42
Once I prime the brain -- it's called cognitive priming --
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Jednom kad pripremim mozak--to se zove kognitivno pripremanje--
05:45
once I prime the brain to see it,
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jednom kad pripremim mozak da to vidi,
05:47
it pops back out again even without the pattern that I've imposed on it.
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ponovno će iskočiti čak i bez uzorka kojeg sam primijenio na to.
05:50
And what do you see here?
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A što vidite ovdje?
05:52
Some people see a Dalmatian dog.
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Neki ljudi vide psa dalmatinera.
05:54
Yes, there it is. And there's the prime.
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Da, evo ga. I to je priprema.
05:56
So when I go back without the prime,
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Tako da kad se vratim bez pripreme,
05:58
your brain already has the model
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vaš mozak već ima model
06:00
so you can see it again.
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tako da to možete ponovno vidjeti.
06:02
What do you see here?
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Što vidite ovdje?
06:05
Planet Saturn. Yes, that's good.
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Planetu Saturn. Da, to je dobro.
06:07
How about here?
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A ovdje?
06:10
Just shout out anything you see.
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Samo viknite bilo što što vidite.
06:14
That's a good audience, Chris.
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To je dobra publika, Chris.
06:16
Because there's nothing in this. Well, allegedly there's nothing.
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Jer nema ničega u ovome. Zapravo, navodno nema ničega.
06:19
This is an experiment done by Jennifer Whitson
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To je pokus kojeg je napravila Jennifer Whitson
06:22
at U.T. Austin
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na teksaškom sveučilištu u Austinu
06:24
on corporate environments
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u zajedničkom okruženju
06:26
and whether feelings of uncertainty and out of control
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i da li osjećaji nesigurnosti i gubitka kontrole
06:29
makes people see illusory patterns.
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utječu na ljude da vide iluzorne uzorke.
06:31
That is, almost everybody sees the planet Saturn.
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A to je, skoro svi vide planet Saturn.
06:34
People that are put in a condition of feeling out of control
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Ljudi koje dovedete u stanje ili osjećaj gubitka kontrole
06:37
are more likely to see something in this,
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će prije vidjeti nešto u ovome,
06:39
which is allegedly patternless.
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što je navodno bez uzorka.
06:42
In other words, the propensity to find these patterns
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Drugim riječima, sklonost pronalasku uzoraka
06:45
goes up when there's a lack of control.
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raste kad dolazi do gubitka kontrole.
06:48
For example, baseball players are notoriously superstitious
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na primjer, igrači bejzbola su nepopravljivo praznovjerni
06:51
when they're batting,
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kad udaraju palicom,
06:53
but not so much when they're fielding.
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ali ne toliko kao kad su u polju igrališta.
06:55
Because fielders are successful
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Zato što su igrači u polju uspješni
06:57
90 to 95 percent of the time.
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90 do 95 posto vremena.
06:59
The best batters fail seven out of 10 times.
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Najbolji udarači promaše sedam od deset puta.
07:02
So their superstitions, their patternicities,
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Tako da su njihova praznovjerja, njihova uzorkovanja,
07:04
are all associated with feelings of lack of control
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sva povezana s osjećajem manjka kontrole
07:07
and so forth.
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i tako dalje.
07:10
What do you see in this particular one here, in this field?
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Što vidite baš u ovoj ovdje, na ovom igralištu?
07:13
Anybody see an object there?
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Vidi li netko predmet?
07:15
There actually is something here,
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Tamo zapravo nešto ima,
07:17
but it's degraded.
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ali je izblijedilo.
07:19
While you're thinking about that,
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Dok vi razmišljate o tome,
07:21
this was an experiment done by Susan Blackmore,
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to je bio pokus kojeg je napravila Susan Blackmore,
07:23
a psychologist in England,
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psihologinja u Engleskoj,
07:25
who showed subjects this degraded image
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koja je pokazala ispitanicima ovu izblijeđenu sliku
07:27
and then ran a correlation between
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a tada je napravila usporedbu između
07:29
their scores on an ESP test:
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njihovih bodova na ESP testu,
07:31
How much did they believe in the paranormal,
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koliko vjeruju u paranormalno,
07:33
supernatural, angels and so forth.
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natprirodno, anđele i tako dalje.
07:36
And those who scored high on the ESP scale,
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i oni koji su postigli veći rezultat na ESP ljestvici,
07:39
tended to not only see
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naginjali su, ne samo viđenju
07:41
more patterns in the degraded images
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više uzoraka u izblijedjelim slikama,
07:43
but incorrect patterns.
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nego i netočnim uzorcima.
07:45
Here is what you show subjects.
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Ovdje je ono što se pokazuje ispitanicima.
07:47
The fish is degraded 20 percent, 50 percent
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Riba je izblijedila 20 posto, 50 posto
07:50
and then the one I showed you,
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i onda ona koju sam vam pokazao,
07:52
70 percent.
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70 posto.
07:54
A similar experiment was done by another [Swiss] psychologist
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Sličan pokus je napravio jedan drugi britanski pisholog
07:56
named Peter Brugger,
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koji se zove Peter Brugger,
07:58
who found significantly more meaningful patterns
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koji je našao da se značajno više smislenih uzoraka
08:01
were perceived on the right hemisphere,
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percipira u desnoj hemisferi,
08:03
via the left visual field, than the left hemisphere.
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kroz lijevo vidno polje, a zatim u lijevu hemisferu.
08:06
So if you present subjects the images such
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Tako da ako pokazujete ispitanicima takve slike
08:08
that it's going to end up on the right hemisphere instead of the left,
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koje će završiti u desnoj hemisferi umjesto u lijevoj,
08:11
then they're more likely to see patterns
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tada će češće vidjeti uzorke
08:13
than if you put it on the left hemisphere.
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nego da ih stavite u lijevu hemisferu.
08:15
Our right hemisphere appears to be
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Izgleda da se u našoj desnoj hemisferi
08:17
where a lot of this patternicity occurs.
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javlja većina ovih uzoraka.
08:19
So what we're trying to do is bore into the brain
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Ono što mi pokušavamo je prodrijeti u mozak
08:21
to see where all this happens.
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i vidjeti gdje se sve ovo događa.
08:23
Brugger and his colleague, Christine Mohr,
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Brugger i njegova kolegica, Christine Mohr,
08:26
gave subjects L-DOPA.
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su dali ispitanicima L-DOPU.
08:28
L-DOPA's a drug, as you know, given for treating Parkinson's disease,
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L-DOPA je lijek, kao što znate, koristi se u liječenju Parkinsonove bolesti,
08:31
which is related to a decrease in dopamine.
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koja je povezana s manjkom dopamina.
08:34
L-DOPA increases dopamine.
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L-DOPA podiže dopamin.
08:36
An increase of dopamine caused
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A porast dopamina utječe
08:38
subjects to see more patterns
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da ispitanici vide više uzoraka
08:40
than those that did not receive the dopamine.
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nego oni koji nisu primili dopamin.
08:42
So dopamine appears to be the drug
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Dopamin je, čini se, lijek
08:44
associated with patternicity.
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povezan s uzorkovanjem.
08:46
In fact, neuroleptic drugs
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U stvari, neuroleptični lijekovi
08:48
that are used to eliminate psychotic behavior,
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koji se koriste da eliminiraju psihotično ponašanje,
08:50
things like paranoia, delusions
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stvari poput paranoje, sumanutosti
08:52
and hallucinations,
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i halucinacija,
08:54
these are patternicities.
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a ovo su uzorkovanja.
08:56
They're incorrect patterns. They're false positives. They're Type I errors.
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to su netočni uzorci. Oni su lažno pozitivni. To su greške tipa jedan.
08:59
And if you give them drugs
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I ako im date lijekove
09:01
that are dopamine antagonists,
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koji su antagonisti dopamina,
09:03
they go away.
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nema ih više.
09:05
That is, you decrease the amount of dopamine,
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To jest, ako smanjite količinu dopamina,
09:07
and their tendency to see
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i njihova tendencija da vide
09:09
patterns like that decreases.
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uzorke slično se smanjuje.
09:11
On the other hand, amphetamines like cocaine
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U drugu ruku, amfetamini poput kokaina,
09:14
are dopamine agonists.
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su dopaminski agonisti.
09:16
They increase the amount of dopamine.
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Oni povećavaju količinu dopamina.
09:18
So you're more likely to feel in a euphoric state,
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Tako da ćete najvjerojatnije osjećati euforiju,
09:21
creativity, find more patterns.
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kreativnost i naći više uzoraka.
09:23
In fact, I saw Robin Williams recently
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U stvari, nedavno sam vidio Robin Williamsa
09:25
talk about how he thought he was much funnier
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pričali smo o tome kako je bio više smiješan
09:27
when he was doing cocaine, when he had that issue, than now.
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kad je bio na kokainu, dok je imao taj problem, nego sad.
09:30
So perhaps more dopamine
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Možda je više dopamina
09:32
is related to more creativity.
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povezano s više kreativnosti.
09:34
Dopamine, I think, changes
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Dopamin, ja mislim, mijenja
09:36
our signal-to-noise ratio.
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naš omjer signala i šuma.
09:38
That is, how accurate we are
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To jest koliko smo precizni
09:40
in finding patterns.
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u pronalaženju uzoraka.
09:42
If it's too low, you're more likely to make too many Type II errors.
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Ako je omjer prenizak, vjerojatno činite previše pogrešaka tipa dva.
09:45
You miss the real patterns. You don't want to be too skeptical.
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ne vidite stvarne uzorke. Ne želite biti previše skeptični.
09:47
If you're too skeptical, you'll miss the really interesting good ideas.
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Ako ste preskeptični, nećete vidjeti zaista zanimljive dobre ideje.
09:51
Just right, you're creative, and yet you don't fall for too much baloney.
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Zapravo ste kreativni, a opet ne padate na previše gluposti.
09:54
Too high and maybe you see patterns everywhere.
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Previše visok omjer i možda vidite uzorke posvuda.
09:57
Every time somebody looks at you, you think people are staring at you.
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Svaki put kad vas netko pogleda, vi mislite da netko bulji u vas.
10:00
You think people are talking about you.
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Mislite da ljudi pričaju o vama.
10:02
And if you go too far on that, that's just simply
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I ako odete predaleko u tome, to se jednostavno
10:04
labeled as madness.
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zove ludilo.
10:06
It's a distinction perhaps we might make
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To je razlika koju možda možemo napraviti
10:08
between two Nobel laureates, Richard Feynman
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između dva dobitnika Nobelove nagrade, Richarda Feynmana
10:10
and John Nash.
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i John Nasha.
10:12
One sees maybe just the right number
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Jedan je vidio točno onoliko
10:14
of patterns to win a Nobel Prize.
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uzoraka da osvoji Nobelovu nagradu.
10:16
The other one also, but maybe too many patterns.
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I drugi također, ali možda previše uzoraka.
10:18
And we then call that schizophrenia.
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I tada to zovemo shizofrenija.
10:21
So the signal-to-noise ratio then presents us with a pattern-detection problem.
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Tako da nam omjer signala i šuma pokazuje problem detektiranja uzorka.
10:24
And of course you all know exactly
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I naravno svi znate točno
10:26
what this is, right?
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što je ovo, zar ne.
10:28
And what pattern do you see here?
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I koji uzorak ovdje vidite?
10:30
Again, I'm putting your anterior cingulate cortex to the test here,
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Ponovno, stavljam vašu prednju cingulatnu moždanu koru na test ovdje,
10:33
causing you conflicting pattern detections.
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uzrokujući da se borite s detekcijama uzoraka.
10:36
You know, of course, this is Via Uno shoes.
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Znate, naravno, da su ovo Via Uno cipele.
10:38
These are sandals.
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Ovo su sandale.
10:41
Pretty sexy feet, I must say.
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Prilično seksi stopala, moram reći.
10:44
Maybe a little Photoshopped.
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Možda malo fotošopirana.
10:46
And of course, the ambiguous figures
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I naravno, dvosmislene figure
10:48
that seem to flip-flop back and forth.
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koje se čine kao da skaču naprijed i natrag.
10:50
It turns out what you're thinking about a lot
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Ispada da ono o čemu puno razmišljate
10:52
influences what you
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utječe na ono
10:54
tend to see.
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što bi htjeli vidjeti.
10:56
And you see the lamp here, I know.
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I vidite ovdje lampu, znam.
10:58
Because the lights on here.
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Zbog svjetla ovdje.
11:01
Of course, thanks to the environmentalist movement
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Naravno, zahvaljujući ekološkom pokretu
11:03
we're all sensitive to the plight of marine mammals.
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svi smo osjetljivi na položaj morskih sisavaca.
11:06
So what you see in this particular ambiguous figure
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Pa ono što vidite na ovoj, dvosmislenoj slici
11:09
is, of course, the dolphins, right?
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je naravno, dupin.
11:11
You see a dolphin here,
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Vidite dupina ovdje.
11:13
and there's a dolphin,
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I to je dupin.
11:15
and there's a dolphin.
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I to je dupin.
11:17
That's a dolphin tail there, guys.
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Ovo je dupinov rep, dečki.
11:20
(Laughter)
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(smijeh)
11:25
If we can give you conflicting data, again,
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ako vam možemo dati zbunjujuće podatke, opet,
11:28
your ACC is going to be going into hyperdrive.
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vaš ACC će otići u hiperpogon.
11:31
If you look down here, it's fine. If you look up here, then you get conflicting data.
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Ako pogledate ovdje dolje, u redu je. Ako pogledate ovdje gore, tada dobijate zbunjujuće podatke.
11:34
And then we have to flip the image
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I tada trebamo okrenuti sliku
11:36
for you to see that it's a set up.
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da vidite da je to namješteno.
11:40
The impossible crate illusion.
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Nemoguća kutija iluzija.
11:42
It's easy to fool the brain in 2D.
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Lako je prevariti mozak u 2D.
11:44
So you say, "Aw, come on Shermer, anybody can do that
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Tako kažete," Ma hajde Shermer, svatko to može
11:46
in a Psych 101 text with an illusion like that."
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tko zna osnove psihologije".
11:48
Well here's the late, great Jerry Andrus'
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Ovo je pokojni, veliki Jerry Andrus
11:50
"impossible crate" illusion in 3D,
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i njegova iluzija "nemoguće kutije" u 3D,
11:53
in which Jerry is standing inside
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u kojoj Jerry stoji unutar
11:55
the impossible crate.
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nemoguće kutije.
11:57
And he was kind enough to post this
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I bio je dovoljno ljubazan da objavi ovo
11:59
and give us the reveal.
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i podari nam odgovor.
12:01
Of course, camera angle is everything. The photographer is over there,
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Naravno, sve ovisi o kutu snimanja. Fotograf je ovdje preko.
12:04
and this board appears to overlap with this one, and this one with that one, and so on.
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I ova daska se čini da se preklapa s ovom, a ova ovdje s ovom drugom, i tako dalje.
12:07
But even when I take it away,
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Ali i kad ih odnesem,
12:09
the illusion is so powerful because of how are brains are wired
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iluzija je tako moćna i pokazuje kako su naši umovi ožičeni
12:11
to find those certain kinds of patterns.
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da nađu stanovite vrste uzorka.
12:14
This is a fairly new one
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Ovo je jedan novi
12:16
that throws us off because of the conflicting patterns
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koji nas zapanjuje zbog suprostavljenih uzoraka
12:18
of comparing this angle with that angle.
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kad uspoređujemo ovaj kut s ovim.
12:21
In fact, it's the exact same picture side by side.
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U stvari, to je točno ista slika jedna pored druge.
12:24
So what you're doing is comparing that angle
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Ono što radite je da uspoređujete ovaj kut
12:26
instead of with this one, but with that one.
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umjesto s ovim drugim.
12:28
And so your brain is fooled.
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I tako je vaš mozak prevaren.
12:30
Yet again, your pattern detection devices are fooled.
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Ponovno, i vaše sprave za otkrivanje uzoraka su prevarene.
12:32
Faces are easy to see
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Lica su jednostavna za vidjeti
12:34
because we have an additional evolved
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zato što imamo dodatni evoluirani
12:36
facial recognition software
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softver za prepoznavanje lica
12:38
in our temporal lobes.
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u našim sljepoočnim režnjevima.
12:41
Here's some faces on the side of a rock.
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Ovdje su neka lica na srani gdje je kamen.
12:44
I'm actually not even sure if this is -- this might be Photoshopped.
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Zapravo nisam siguran za ovo, možda je prepravljeno u Photoshopu.
12:47
But anyway, the point is still made.
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Ali ipak, to je poanta.
12:49
Now which one of these looks odd to you?
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Koji od ovih vam izgleda čudno?
12:51
In a quick reaction, which one looks odd?
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U brzoj reakciji, koji izgleda čudno?
12:53
The one on the left. Okay. So I'll rotate it
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Ovaj s lijeve strane. U redu, sad ću ga zarotirati
12:55
so it'll be the one on the right.
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pa će postati onaj s desne strane.
12:57
And you are correct.
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I u pravu ste.
12:59
A fairly famous illusion -- it was first done with Margaret Thatcher.
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Dosta poznata iluzija--prvi put napravljena s Margaret Thatcher.
13:02
Now, they trade up the politicians every time.
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Sada, samo mijenjaju političare svaki put.
13:04
Well, why is this happening?
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Zašto se ovo događa?
13:06
Well, we know exactly where it happens,
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Znamo točno gdje se to dešava,
13:08
in the temporal lobe, right across, sort of above your ear there,
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u sljepoočnom režnju, točno poprijeko, otprilike iznad vašeg uha ovdje.
13:11
in a little structure called the fusiform gyrus.
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U maloj strukturi koja se zove fuziformna vijuga.
13:14
And there's two types of cells that do this,
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I postoje dva tipa stanica koje ovo čine,
13:16
that record facial features either globally,
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koje bilježe oblike lica ili općenito
13:19
or specifically these large, rapid-firing cells,
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ili specifično ove velike, brzookidajuće stanice,
13:21
first look at the general face.
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prvo pogledaju lice općenito.
13:23
So you recognize Obama immediately.
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Tako prepoznate Obamu odmah.
13:25
And then you notice something quite
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A zatim primjetite nešto stvarno
13:27
a little bit odd about the eyes and the mouth.
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malo čudno s njegovim očima i ustima.
13:29
Especially when they're upside down,
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Naročito kad su naopako.
13:31
you're engaging that general facial recognition software there.
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Uključili ste onaj softver za prepoznavanje lica.
13:34
Now I said back in our little thought experiment,
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Kako sam prije rekao u našem malom misaonom pokusu
13:37
you're a hominid walking on the plains of Africa.
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vi ste hominid koji šeta po visoravnima Afrike.
13:39
Is it just the wind or a dangerous predator?
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Da li je to samo vjetar ili opasni predator?
13:42
What's the difference between those?
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Koja je razlika između toga?
13:44
Well, the wind is inanimate;
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pa, vjetar je neživ;
13:46
the dangerous predator is an intentional agent.
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opasni predator je uzrok s namjerom.
13:48
And I call this process agenticity.
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I ovaj proces nazivam uzrokovanost.
13:50
That is the tendency to infuse patterns
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To je tendencija da se uzorcima dade
13:52
with meaning, intention and agency,
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smisao, namjera i učinak,
13:54
often invisible beings from the top down.
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često nevidljiva bića od vrha do dna.
13:57
This is an idea that we got
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Ovo je ideja do koje smo došli
13:59
from a fellow TEDster here, Dan Dennett,
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od kolege s TED-a, Dan Dennetta,
14:01
who talked about taking the intentional stance.
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koji je pričao o zauzimanju namjernog položaja.
14:03
So it's a type of that expanded to explain, I think, a lot of different things:
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To se kasnije proširilo da objasni, dosta stvari,
14:06
souls, spirits, ghosts, gods, demons, angels,
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duša, duhova, utvara, bogova, demona, anđela,
14:09
aliens, intelligent designers,
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vanzemaljaca, inteligentnih stvoritelja,
14:11
government conspiracists
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vladinih zavjerenika
14:13
and all manner of invisible agents
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i različitih drugih vrsta nevidljivih uzroka
14:15
with power and intention, are believed
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s moći i namjerom, za koje se vjeruje
14:17
to haunt our world and control our lives.
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da progoni naš svijet i kontrolira naše živote.
14:19
I think it's the basis of animism
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Mislim da je ovo osnova animizma
14:21
and polytheism and monotheism.
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i politeizma i monoteizma.
14:24
It's the belief that aliens are somehow
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To je vjerovanje da su vanzemaljci nekako
14:26
more advanced than us, more moral than us,
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napredniji od nas, moralniji od nas,
14:28
and the narratives always are
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i u pričama uvijek
14:30
that they're coming here to save us and rescue us from on high.
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dolaze da nas spase i izbave zbog višeg cilja.
14:33
The intelligent designer's always portrayed
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Inteligentni stvoritelji su uvijek opisivani
14:35
as this super intelligent, moral being
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kao superinteligentna, moralna bića
14:38
that comes down to design life.
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koja su se spustila da stvore život.
14:40
Even the idea that government can rescue us --
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Čak i ideja da nas vlada može spasiti.
14:42
that's no longer the wave of the future,
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To nije više val budućnosti.
14:44
but that is, I think, a type of agenticity:
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Ali to je , mislim vrsta uzrokovanosti,
14:46
projecting somebody up there,
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projiciranje nekoga tamo gore,
14:48
big and powerful, will come rescue us.
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velikog i moćnog koji će nas doći spasiti.
14:50
And this is also, I think, the basis of conspiracy theories.
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I ovo je također po mom mišljenju osnova teorija zavjere.
14:52
There's somebody hiding behind there pulling the strings,
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Netko se skriva iza i povlači sve konce,
14:55
whether it's the Illuminati
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bilo da su to Illuminati
14:57
or the Bilderbergers.
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ili grupa Bilderberg.
14:59
But this is a pattern detection problem, isn't it?
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Ali ovo je problem u detekciji uzoraka, zar ne?
15:01
Some patterns are real and some are not.
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Neki su uzorci stvarni, a neki nisu.
15:03
Was JFK assassinated by a conspiracy or by a lone assassin?
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Da li je J.F. Kennedy ubijen u uroti ili je bio jedan ubojica?
15:06
Well, if you go there -- there's people there on any given day --
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Ako odete tamo-- ima ljudi svakog dana--
15:09
like when I went there, here -- showing me where the different shooters were.
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kao kad sam ja tamo bio-- koji vam pokazuju gdje su bili različiti strijelci.
15:12
My favorite one was he was in the manhole.
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najdraža mi je ona da je bio u šahtu.
15:15
And he popped out at the last second, took that shot.
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I iskočio je u zadnjoj sekundi i opalio.
15:18
But of course, Lincoln was assassinated by a conspiracy.
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Naravno, i Lincoln je ubijen u zavjeri.
15:20
So we can't just uniformly dismiss
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Ne možemo podjednako odbaciti
15:22
all patterns like that.
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sve uzorke poput ovoga.
15:24
Because, let's face it, some patterns are real.
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Jer, budimo iskreni, neki uzorci su stvarni.
15:26
Some conspiracies really are true.
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Neke zavjere su zaista istinite.
15:30
Explains a lot, maybe.
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Objašnjavaju puno, možda.
15:32
And 9/11 has a conspiracy theory. It is a conspiracy.
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I 11.09. je teorija zavjere. To je zavjera.
15:35
We did a whole issue on it.
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Napravili smo od toga cijelu strku.
15:37
Nineteen members of Al Queda plotting to fly planes into buildings
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19 članova Al Queda urotilo se da sruše avione u zgrade
15:39
constitutes a conspiracy.
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tvoreći zavjeru.
15:41
But that's not what the "9/11 truthers" think.
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Ali to nije ono što "zagovornici istine o 11.09." misle.
15:43
They think it was an inside job by the Bush administration.
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Oni misle da je kriva Busheva administracija.
15:46
Well, that's a whole other lecture.
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Ali to je skroz drugo predavanje.
15:48
You know how we know that 9/11
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Znate li kako znamo da 11.09.
15:50
was not orchestrated by the Bush administration?
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nije orkestriran od Busheve administracije?
15:52
Because it worked.
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Zato što je uspjelo.
15:54
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
15:57
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
16:00
So we are natural-born dualists.
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Mi smo rođeni dualisti.
16:02
Our agenticity process comes from
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Naš proces uzrokovanosti dolazi od
16:04
the fact that we can enjoy movies like these.
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činjenice da možemo uživati u filmovima poput ovih.
16:06
Because we can imagine, in essence,
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Zato što možemo maštati, u osnovi,
16:08
continuing on.
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nastavljajući dalje.
16:10
We know that if you stimulate the temporal lobe,
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Znamo da ako stimulirate sljepoočni režanj,
16:12
you can produce a feeling of out-of-body experiences,
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možete imati osjećaj vantjelesnih iskustava,
16:14
near-death experiences,
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iskustava kliničke smrti,
16:16
which you can do by just touching an electrode to the temporal lobe there.
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koje možete imati kad samo dotaknete elektrodom sljepoočni režanj.
16:19
Or you can do it through loss of consciousness,
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Ili to možete s gubitkom svijesti,
16:21
by accelerating in a centrifuge.
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ubrzavajući u centrifugi.
16:23
You get a hypoxia, or a lower oxygen.
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Imate hipoksiju, ili manjak kisika.
16:26
And the brain then senses
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i mozak tada osjeća
16:28
that there's an out-of-body experience.
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da je riječ o vantjelesnom iskustvu.
16:30
You can use -- which I did, went out and did --
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Možete koristiti-- kao što sam i ja--
16:32
Michael Persinger's God Helmet,
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božju kacigu Michaela Persingera,
16:34
that bombards your temporal lobes with electromagnetic waves.
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koja bombardira vaše sljepoočne režnjeve elektromagnetskim valovima.
16:36
And you get a sense of out-of-body experience.
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I imate osjećaj vantjelesnog iskustva.
16:39
So I'm going to end here with a short video clip
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Završit ću s kratkim video isječkom
16:41
that sort of brings all this together.
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koji na neki način sve ovo skupa spaja.
16:43
It's just a minute and a half.
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Traje samo minutu i pol.
16:45
It ties together all this into the power of expectation and the power of belief.
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Veže sve ovo skupa u moć očekivanja i moć vjerovanja.
16:48
Go ahead and roll it.
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Pustite ga.
16:50
Narrator: This is the venue they chose for their fake auditions
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Narator: Ovo je mjesto koje su izabrali za svoje lažne audicije
16:53
for an advert for lip balm.
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za reklamu za sjajilo za usne.
16:55
Woman: We're hoping we can use part of this
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Žena: Nadamo se da možemo upotrijebiti dio ovoga
16:57
in a national commercial, right?
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za nacionalnu reklamu.
16:59
And this is test on some lip balms
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I ovo je test za neka sjajila za usne
17:01
that we have over here.
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koje ovdje imamo.
17:03
And these are our models who are going to help us,
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A ovo su naši modeli koji će nam pomoći,
17:05
Roger and Matt.
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Roger i Matt.
17:07
And we have our own lip balm,
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I imamo naše vlastito sjajilo za usne,
17:09
and we have a leading brand.
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i imamo vodeću marku.
17:11
Would you have any problem
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Hoćete li imati problema
17:13
kissing our models to test it?
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poljubiti naše modele da ga testirate.
17:15
Girl: No.
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Djevojka: Ne.
17:17
Woman: You wouldn't? (Girl: No.) Woman: You'd think that was fine.
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Žena: Nećete? (Djevojka:Ne.) Žena: Mislite da je to u redu.
17:19
Girl: That would be fine. (Woman: Okay.)
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Djevojka: Biti će u redu. (Žena: Dobro.)
17:21
So this is a blind test.
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Ovo je test na slijepo.
17:24
I'm going to ask you to go ahead
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Morat ću vas zamoliti da krenete
17:26
and put a blindfold on.
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i da stavite povez preko očiju.
17:29
Kay, now can you see anything? (Girl: No.)
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Kay, da li vidite išta? (Djevojka: Ne.)
17:32
Pull it so you can't even see down. (Girl: Okay.)
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Navucite povez da ne vidite ni prema dolje. (Djevojka: Dobro.)
17:34
Woman: It's completely blind now, right?
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Žena: Sad ništa ne vidiš, zar ne?
17:36
Girl: Yes. (Woman: Okay.)
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Djevojka: Da. (Žena: Dobro.)
17:38
Now, what I'm going to be looking for in this test
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Ono što ću tražiti u ovom testu
17:41
is how it protects your lips,
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je kako štiti vaše usne,
17:44
the texture, right,
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teskturu,
17:46
and maybe if you can discern any flavor or not.
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i možda ako možete razaznati ima li neki okus.
17:49
Girl: Okay. (Woman: Have you ever done a kissing test before?)
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Djevojka: Dobro. (Žena: Jesi li ikad prije sudjelovala u testu poljupcima?)
17:52
Girl: No.
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Djevojka: Ne.
17:54
Woman: Take a step here.
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Žena: Dođite korak naprijed.
17:56
Okay, now I'm going to ask you to pucker up.
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Dobro, sad želim da napućite usne.
17:58
Pucker up big and lean in just a little bit, okay?
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Napućite se još više i nagnite se malo naprijed, u redu.
18:06
(Music)
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(Glazba)
18:10
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
18:19
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
18:30
Woman: Okay.
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Ok.
18:32
And, Jennifer, how did that feel?
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i Jennifer, kako je to bilo?
18:34
Jennifer: Good.
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Jennifer: Dobro. .
18:36
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
18:43
Girl: Oh my God!
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Djevojka: O moj Bože.
18:45
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
18:50
Michael Shermer: Thank you very much. Thank you. Thanks.
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Michael Shermer: Hvala vam puno. Hvala vam. Hvala.
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Michael Shermer - SkepticMichael Shermer debunks myths, superstitions and urban legends -- and explains why we believe them. Along with publishing Skeptic Magazine, he's author of Why People Believe Weird Things and The Mind of the Market.
Why you should listen
As founder and publisher of Skeptic Magazine, Michael Shermer has exposed fallacies behind intelligent design, 9/11 conspiracies, the low-carb craze, alien sightings and other popular beliefs and paranoias. But it's not about debunking for debunking's sake. Shermer defends the notion that we can understand our world better only by matching good theory with good science.
Shermer's work offers cognitive context for our often misguided beliefs: In the absence of sound science, incomplete information can powerfully combine with the power of suggestion (helping us hear Satanic lyrics when "Stairway to Heaven" plays backwards, for example). In fact, a common thread that runs through beliefs of all sorts, he says, is our tendency to convince ourselves: We overvalue the shreds of evidence that support our preferred outcome, and ignore the facts we aren't looking for.
He writes a monthly column for Scientific American, and is an adjunct at Claremont Graduate University and Chapman University. His latest book is The Believing Brain: From Ghosts and Gods to Politics and Conspiracies—How We Construct Beliefs and Reinforce Them as Truths. He is also the author of The Mind of the Market, on evolutionary economics, Why Darwin Matters: Evolution and the Case Against Intelligent Design, and The Science of Good and Evil. And his next book is titled The Moral Arc of Science.
Michael Shermer | Speaker | TED.com