TEDGlobal 2011
Malcolm Gladwell: The strange tale of the Norden bombsight
Malcolm Gladwell: Cerita tak dikenal tentang pembidik bom Norden
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Pencerita ulung Malcolm Gladwell menceritakan mengenai pembidik bom Norden, sebuah temuan mendasar dari teknologi pada Perang Dunia II dengan hasil yang sangat tidak diharapkan.
Malcolm Gladwell - Writer
Detective of fads and emerging subcultures, chronicler of jobs-you-never-knew-existed, Malcolm Gladwell's work is toppling the popular understanding of bias, crime, food, marketing, race, consumers and intelligence. Full bio
Detective of fads and emerging subcultures, chronicler of jobs-you-never-knew-existed, Malcolm Gladwell's work is toppling the popular understanding of bias, crime, food, marketing, race, consumers and intelligence. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
Thank you.
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Terima kasih.
00:17
It's a real pleasure to be here.
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Saya sangat senang berada di sini
00:19
I last did a TEDTalk
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Terakhir kali saya berbicara di TEDTalk
00:21
I think about seven years ago or so.
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sekitar tujuh tahun yang lalu sepertinya.
00:25
I talked about spaghetti sauce.
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Saya berbicara tentang saus spageti
00:28
And so many people, I guess, watch those videos.
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Banyak sekali yang menonton video tersebut.
00:31
People have been coming up to me ever since
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Banyak sekali yang datang sejak itu
00:33
to ask me questions about spaghetti sauce,
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menanyakan pertanyaan seputar saus spageti,
00:35
which is a wonderful thing in the short term --
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yang merupakan hal bagus dalam jangka pendek --
00:38
(Laughter)
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(tawa)
00:40
but it's proven to be less than ideal
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tapi terbukti kurang ideal
00:42
over seven years.
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selama tujuh tahun.
00:44
And so I though I would come
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Jadi saya berpikir akan kembali
00:46
and try and put spaghetti sauce behind me.
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dan meninggalkan saus spageti di belakang saya.
00:49
(Laughter)
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(tawa)
00:51
The theme of this morning's session is Things We Make.
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Tema sesi pagi ini adalah Hal-hal yang Kita Ciptakan.
00:54
And so I thought I would tell a story
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Saya berpikir akan menceritakan cerita
00:56
about someone
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tentang seseorang
00:58
who made one of the most precious objects
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yang menciptakan salah satu benda yang paling berharga
01:00
of his era.
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di era ini.
01:02
And the man's name is Carl Norden.
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Namanya Carl Norden.
01:05
Carl Norden was born in 1880.
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Carl Norden lahir pada tahun 1880.
01:07
And he was Swiss.
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Warga negara Swiss.
01:09
And of course, the Swiss can be divided
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Swiss dapat dibagi
01:11
into two general categories:
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menjadi dua kategori umum:
01:13
those who make small, exquisite,
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mereka yang membuat benda yang kecil, indah sekali,
01:15
expensive objects
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serta mahal
01:17
and those who handle the money
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dan mereka yang menangani keuangan
01:19
of those who buy small, exquisite,
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mereka yang membeli benda kecil, indah sekali,
01:22
expensive objects.
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serta mahal tersebut.
01:24
And Carl Norden is very firmly in the former camp.
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Carl Norden jelas berada di kamp pertama.
01:27
He's an engineer.
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Dia adalah seorang insinyur.
01:29
He goes to the Federal Polytech in Zurich.
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Belajar di Federal Polytech di Zurich.
01:32
In fact, one of his classmates is a young man named Lenin
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Malah, salah satu teman kelasnya adalah seorang pemuda bernama Lenin
01:35
who would go on
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yang kemudian bekerja dalam
01:37
to break small, expensive, exquisite objects.
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mematahkan benda-benda mahal dan sangat indah.
01:41
And he's a Swiss engineer, Carl.
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Carl adalah insinyur Swiss.
01:44
And I mean that in its fullest sense of the word.
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Saya sungguh-sungguh mengucapkannya.
01:47
He wears three-piece suits;
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Dia mengenakan pakaian tiga lapis;
01:49
and he has a very, very small, important mustache;
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Memiliki kumis yang sangat, sangat kecil, sangat penting;
01:54
and he is domineering
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Ia sangat mendominasi
01:56
and narcissistic
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dan narsisistik
01:58
and driven
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dan terarah
02:00
and has an extraordinary ego;
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dan memiliki ego yang luar biasa;
02:02
and he works 16-hour days;
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Iia bekerja 16 jam sehari;
02:05
and he has very strong feelings about alternating current;
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dan memiliki perasaan yang sangat kuat mengenai arus tukar;
02:08
and he feels like a suntan is a sign of moral weakness;
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dan menganggap sikap santai sebagai dosa;
02:12
and he drinks lots of coffee;
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dan ia meminum banyak kopi;
02:14
and he does his best work
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dan dia melakukan pekerjaan terbaiknya
02:16
sitting in his mother's kitchen in Zurich for hours
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dari dapur ibunya di Zurich selama berjam-jam
02:18
in complete silence
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dalam keheningna total
02:20
with nothing but a slide rule.
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hanya ditemani sebuah mistar.
02:22
In any case,
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Suatu saat,
02:24
Carl Norden emigrates to the United States
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Carl Norden pindah ke Amerika
02:27
just before the First World War
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sebelum Perang Dunia Pertama
02:29
and sets up shop on Lafayette Street
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dan mendirikan bengkel di jalan Lafayette
02:31
in downtown Manhattan.
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di pusat kota Manhattan.
02:33
And he becomes obsessed with the question
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Dan dia terobsesi dengan pertanyaan
02:35
of how to drop bombs from an airplane.
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cara menjatuhkan bom dari sebuah pesawat.
02:38
Now if you think about it,
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Jika dipikirkan,
02:40
in the age before GPS and radar,
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pada jaman sebelum GPS dan radar,
02:43
that was obviously a really difficult problem.
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hal itu merupakan masalah sulit.
02:45
It's a complicated physics problem.
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Sebuah masalah fisika yang rumit.
02:47
You've got a plane that's thousands of feet up in the air,
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Dari pesawat yang berjarak ribuan kaki di udara,
02:50
going at hundreds of miles an hour,
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dengan kecepatan ratusan mil per jam,
02:52
and you're trying to drop an object, a bomb,
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dan berusaha menjatuhkan sebuah obyek, sebuah bom,
02:55
towards some stationary target
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menuju beberapa target tak bergerak
02:57
in the face of all kinds of winds and cloud cover
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menghadapi berbagai rintangan seperti angin dan awan
03:00
and all kinds of other impediments.
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dan berbagai halangan.
03:02
And all sorts of people,
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Banyak orang,
03:04
moving up to the First World War and between the wars,
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menjelang Perang Dunia Pertama dan masa antara perang,
03:06
tried to solve this problem,
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berusaha memecahkan masalah ini,
03:08
and nearly everybody came up short.
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hampir semuanya gagal.
03:10
The bombsights that were available
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Alat pembidik bom yang tersedia saat itu
03:12
were incredibly crude.
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sangatlah sederhana.
03:14
But Carl Norden is really the one who cracks the code.
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Tapi Carl Norden memecahkan masalahnya.
03:17
And he comes up with this incredibly complicated device.
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Iia menciptakan alat yang sangat rumit.
03:20
It weighs about 50 lbs.
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Beratnya sekitar 22,7 kg.
03:22
It's called the Norden Mark 15 bombsight.
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Sebutannya adalah Pembidik Bom Norden Mark 15.
03:26
And it has all kinds of levers and ball-bearings
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Alat itu memiliki bermacam pengungkit dan bantalan peluru
03:28
and gadgets and gauges.
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dan perkakas dan meteran.
03:31
And he makes this complicated thing.
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Dan dia membuatnya sangat rumit.
03:34
And what he allows people to do
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Apa yang ia lakukan
03:36
is he makes the bombardier take this particular object,
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adalah membuat pengebom menggunakan alat ini,
03:40
visually sight the target,
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untuk melihat targetnya,
03:42
because they're in the Plexiglas cone of the bomber,
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dari dalam contong Plexiglas pesawat bom,
03:46
and then they plug in the altitude of the plane,
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mereka tinggal memasang ketinggian pesawat,
03:49
the speed of the plane, the speed of the wind
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kecepatan pesawat, kecepatan angin
03:52
and the coordinates
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dan koordinat
03:54
of the target.
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targetnya.
03:56
And the bombsight will tell him when to drop the bomb.
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Lalu pembidik bom akan mengatakan kapan pengebom dapat menjatuhkan bomnya.
04:00
And as Norden famously says,
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Ucapan Norden yang terkenal,
04:03
"Before that bombsight came along,
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"Sebelum pembidik bom tersebut diciptakan,
04:05
bombs would routinely miss their target
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bom selalu meleset dari sasaran
04:07
by a mile or more."
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sejauh satu mil atau lebih."
04:09
But he said, with the Mark 15 Norden bombsight,
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Katanya, dengan pembidik bom Mark 15 Norden,
04:12
he could drop a bomb into a pickle barrel
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ia dapat mengebom sebuah tong acar
04:14
at 20,000 ft.
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dari ketinggian 20.000 kaki.
04:16
Now I cannot tell you
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Tidak dapat diungkapkan
04:18
how incredibly excited
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betapa antusiasnya
04:20
the U.S. military was
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militer Amerika saat itu
04:22
by the news of the Norden bombsight.
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dengan pembidik bom Norden.
04:25
It was like manna from heaven.
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Seperti manna dari surga.
04:27
Here was an army
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Ini adalah tentara
04:29
that had just had experience in the First World War,
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yang baru saja merasakan Perang Dunia Pertama,
04:31
where millions of men
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di mana jutaan orang
04:33
fought each other in the trenches,
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bertarung satu sama lain dari parit perlindungan,
04:35
getting nowhere, making no progress,
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terjebak, tanpa kemajuan,
04:37
and here someone had come up with a device
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lalu ada seorang yang muncul dengan alat
04:41
that allowed them to fly up in the skies
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yang dapat membuat mereka terbang
04:43
high above enemy territory
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jauh di atas wilayah musuh,
04:45
and destroy whatever they wanted
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menghancurkan apapun yang mereka mau
04:47
with pinpoint accuracy.
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dengan keakuratan tinggi.
04:49
And the U.S. military
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Militer Amerika
04:51
spends 1.5 billion dollars --
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menghabiskan 1,5 miliar dollar --
04:53
billion dollars in 1940 dollars --
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miliar dollar di 1940 dollar --
04:56
developing the Norden bombsight.
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untuk mengembangkan pembidik bom Norden.
04:58
And to put that in perspective,
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Untuk melihatnya dalam perspektif,
05:01
the total cost of the Manhattan project
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biaya total dari proyek Manhattan
05:03
was three billion dollars.
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adalah tiga miliar dollar.
05:05
Half as much money was spent on this Norden bombsight
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Biaya yang dihabiskan pembidik bom Norden
05:08
as was spent on the most famous military-industrial project
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adalah setengah dari biaya proyek industri militer paling terkenal lainnya
05:12
of the modern era.
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di era modern.
05:14
And there were people, strategists, within the U.S. military
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Banyak orang, ahli strategi, dalam militer Amerika Serikat
05:17
who genuinely thought that this single device
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yang berpikir bahwa satu alat ini
05:19
was going to spell the difference
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akan menciptakan perbedaan
05:21
between defeat and victory
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antara kalah dan menang
05:23
when it came to the battle against the Nazis
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dalam berperang melawan Nazi
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and against the Japanese.
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dan melawan Jepang.
05:27
And for Norden as well,
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Bagi Norden sendiri,
05:29
this device had incredible moral importance,
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alat ini berkepentingan moral,
05:32
because Norden was a committed Christian.
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karena Norden penganut Kristen yang taat.
05:34
In fact, he would always get upset
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Ia selalu sedih
05:36
when people referred to the bombsight as his invention,
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jika pembidik bom disebut sebagai ciptaannya,
05:39
because in his eyes,
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karena di matanya,
05:41
only God could invent things.
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hanya Tuhan yang dapat mencipta.
05:43
He was simple the instrument of God's will.
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Ia hanya alat pelaksana kehendak Tuhan.
05:45
And what was God's will?
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Apakah kehendak Tuhan?
05:47
Well God's will was that the amount of suffering in any kind of war
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Kehendak Tuhan adalah jumlah penderitaan akibat perang
05:50
be reduced to as small an amount as possible.
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dapat dikurangi menjadi sekecil mungkin.
05:53
And what did the Norden bombsight do?
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Apakah yang dilakukan pembidik bom Norden?
05:55
Well it allowed you to do that.
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Mengecilkan penderitaan akibat perang.
05:57
It allowed you to bomb only those things
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Alat tersebut memungkinkan akurasi pengeboman
05:59
that you absolutely needed and wanted to bomb.
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target yang dituju bom.
06:03
So in the years leading up to the Second World War,
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Pada masa menjelang Perang Dunia II,
06:06
the U.S. military buys 90,000
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militer Amerika Serikat membeli 90.000
06:09
of these Norden bombsights
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pembidik bom Norden
06:11
at a cost of $14,000 each --
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masing-masing harganya $14.000 --
06:13
again, in 1940 dollars, that's a lot of money.
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lagi, dollar di tahun 1940, adalah biaya yang sangat besar.
06:16
And they trained 50,000 bombardiers on how to use them --
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Mereka melatih 50.000 pengebom untuk menggunakannya --
06:19
long extensive, months-long training sessions --
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selama berbulan-bulan pelatihan ekstensif --
06:23
because these things are essentially analog computers;
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karena alat ini sebetulnya adalah komputer analog;
06:25
they're not easy to use.
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yang tidak mudah digunakan.
06:27
And they make everyone of those bombardiers take an oath,
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Mereka menyumpah para pengebom tersebut,
06:30
to swear that if they're ever captured,
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jika mereka tertangkap,
06:33
they will not divulge a single detail
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untuk tidak membocorkan rahasia
06:35
of this particular device to the enemy,
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alat ini kepada musuh,
06:37
because it's imperative the enemy not get their hands
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karena pihak musuh tidak boleh memiliki
06:40
on this absolutely essential piece of technology.
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teknologi yang amat penting ini.
06:42
And whenever the Norden bombsight is taken onto a plane,
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Ketika pembidik bom Norden diangkut ke pesawat,
06:45
it's escorted there by a series of armed guards.
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alat itu dikawal oleh serangkaian penjaga bersenjata.
06:48
And it's carried in a box with a canvas shroud over it.
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Alat itu dibawa dalam boks tertutup kain.
06:51
And the box is handcuffed to one of the guards.
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Boks tersebut diborgol pada salah seorang penjaga.
06:54
It's never allowed to be photographed.
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Tidak pernah boleh difoto.
06:56
And there's a little incendiary device inside of it,
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Ada alat pembakar kecil di dalamnya,
06:59
so that, if the plane ever crashes, it will be destroyed
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supaya, jika pesawat jatuh, alat tersebut juga hancur
07:02
and there's no way the enemy can ever get their hands on it.
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sehingga musuh tak bisa mendapatkannya.
07:05
The Norden bombsight
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Pembidik bom Norden
07:07
is the Holy Grail.
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adalah Cawan Suci.
07:10
So what happens during the Second World War?
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Lalu apa yang terjadi dalam Perang Dunia Kedua?
07:13
Well, it turns out it's not the Holy Grail.
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Alat tersebut batal menjadi Cawan Suci.
07:16
In practice, the Norden bombsight
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Praktisnya, pembidik bom Norden
07:18
can drop a bomb into a pickle barrel at 20,000 ft.,
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dapat mengebom ke tong acar dari jarak 20.000 kaki (6096 meter),
07:21
but that's under perfect conditions.
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tapi hanya dalam kondisi sempurna.
07:23
And of course, in wartime,
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Tentu saja, dalam perang,
07:25
conditions aren't perfect.
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kondisi tidak pernah sempurna.
07:27
First of all, it's really hard to use -- really hard to use.
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Pertama, alat tersebut sangat sulit digunakan.
07:30
And not all of the people
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Tidak banyak
07:32
who are of those 50,000 men who are bombardiers
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dari ke-50.000 pengebom
07:34
have the ability to properly program an analog computer.
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yang cukup ahli memprogram sebuah komputer analog.
07:38
Secondly, it breaks down a lot.
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Kedua, alat tersebut gampang rusak.
07:40
It's full of all kinds of gyroscopes and pulleys
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Dengan segala giroskop dan katrol
07:42
and gadgets and ball-bearings,
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dan perkakas dan bantalan,
07:44
and they don't work as well as they ought to
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alat tu tidak bekerja sebaik yang diharapkan
07:46
in the heat of battle.
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dalam medan peperangan.
07:48
Thirdly, when Norden was making his calculations,
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Ketiga, ketika Norden memperhitungkannya,
07:51
he assumed that a plane would be flying
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ia berasumsi pesawat pengebom akan terbang
07:53
at a relatively slow speed at low altitudes.
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pada kecepatan dan ketinggian yang relatif rendah.
07:56
Well in a real war, you can't do that;
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Dalam medan perang, hal tersebut mustahil;
07:58
you'll get shot down.
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Anda akan ditembak jatuh.
08:00
So they started flying them at high altitudes at incredibly high speeds.
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Maka mereka menerbangkan pesawat sangat tinggi dan sangat cepat.
08:03
And the Norden bombsight doesn't work as well
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Sementara pembidik bom Norden tidak dapat bekerja baik
08:05
under those conditions.
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dalam kondisi tersebut.
08:07
But most of all,
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Tapi yang paling utama,
08:09
the Norden bombsight required the bombardier
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pembidik bom Norden memerlukan pengebom
08:11
to make visual contact with the target.
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untuk melihat langsung targetnya.
08:14
But of course, what happens in real life?
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Lalu apa yang terjadi pada kenyataannya?
08:16
There are clouds, right.
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Awan.
08:19
It needs cloudless sky to be really accurate.
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Alat tersebut membutuhkan langit jernih agar akurat.
08:22
Well how many cloudless skies
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Berapa banyak langit jernih
08:24
do you think there were above Central Europe
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berada di atas di Eropa Tengah
08:26
between 1940 and 1945?
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antara tahun 1940 - 1945?
08:29
Not a lot.
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Tidak banyak.
08:31
And then to give you a sense
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Untuk menggambarkan
08:33
of just how inaccurate the Norden bombsight was,
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betapa tidak akuratnya pembidik bom Norden,
08:35
there was a famous case in 1944
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ada kasus terkenal tahun 1944
08:37
where the Allies bombed a chemical plant in Leuna, Germany.
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ketika Sekutu mengebom fasilitas kimia di Leuna, Jerman.
08:41
And the chemical plant comprised
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Dan faslitas kimia terdiri atas lahan
08:43
757 acres.
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757 acre (306 hektar).
08:45
And over the course of 22 bombing missions,
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Dari 22 misi pengeboman,
08:48
the Allies dropped 85,000 bombs
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Sekutu menjatuhkan 85.000 bom
08:53
on this 757 acre chemical plant,
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pada 306 hektar fasilitas kimia ini,
08:57
using the Norden bombsight.
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menggunakan pembidik bom Norden.
09:00
Well what percentage of those bombs
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Berapa persen dari bom tersebut
09:02
do you think actually landed
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yang mendarat
09:04
inside the 700-acre perimeter of the plant?
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di lahan fasilitas tersebut?
09:07
10 percent. 10 percent.
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10 persen.
09:10
And of those 10 percent that landed,
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Dari 10 persen yang mendarat,
09:12
16 percent didn't even go off; they were duds.
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16 persen tidak meletus.
09:15
The Leuna chemical plant,
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Fasilitas kimia Leuna,
09:17
after one of the most extensive bombings in the history of the war,
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setelah menghadapi salah satu serangan paling ekstensif sepanjang sejarah perang,
09:20
was up and running within weeks.
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kembali beroperasi beberapa minggu kemudian.
09:23
And by the way, all those precautions
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Omong-omong, seluruh tindak pencegahan
09:25
to keep the Norden bombsight out of the hands of the Nazis?
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agar pembidik bom Norden tidak sampai ke tangan Nazi?
09:28
Well it turns out
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Ternyata
09:30
that Carl Norden, as a proper Swiss,
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Carl Norden, sebagai warga Swiss,
09:32
was very enamored of German engineers.
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sangat terpikat pada keahlian teknik Jerman.
09:35
So in the 1930s, he hired a whole bunch of them,
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Pada tahun 1930an, ia mempekerjakan sekelompok warga Jerman,
09:37
including a man named Hermann Long
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termasuk seorang Hermann Long
09:39
who, in 1938,
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yang, pada tahun 1938,
09:41
gave a complete set of the plans for the Norden bombsight to the Nazis.
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memberikan rencana lengkap pembidik bom Norden kepada para Nazi.
09:44
So they had their own Norden bombsight throughout the entire war --
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Jadi mereka juga memiliki pembidik bom Norden selama perang --
09:47
which also, by the way, didn't work very well.
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yang juga tidak bekerja dengan baik.
09:50
(Laughter)
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(Tawa)
09:52
So why do we talk about the Norden bombsight?
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Kenapa kita membicarakan pembidik bom Norden?
09:55
Well because we live in an age
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Karena kita hidup di sebuah era
09:57
where there are lots and lots
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di mana banyak sekali
09:59
of Norden bombsights.
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pembidik bom Norden.
10:01
We live in a time where there are all kinds
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Kita hidup di jaman di mana segala jenis
10:03
of really, really smart people
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orang yang sangat pintar
10:05
running around, saying that they've invented gadgets
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mengatakan mereka telah menemukan alat
10:07
that will forever change our world.
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yang dapat mengubah dunia selamanya.
10:09
They've invented websites that will allow people to be free.
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Mereka menciptakan laman web yang membuat orang menjadi bebas.
10:12
They've invented some kind of this thing, or this thing, or this thing
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Mereka menciptakan alat ini atau itu,
10:16
that will make our world forever better.
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yang dapat membuat dunia kita lebih baik.
10:19
If you go into the military,
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Jika Anda pergi ke kanto militer,
10:21
you'll find lots of Carl Nordens as well.
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Anda akan menemukan banyak Carl Norden juga.
10:23
If you go to the Pentagon, they will say,
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Jika Anda pergi ke Pentagon, mereka akan mengatakan,
10:25
"You know what, now we really can
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"Sekarang kita betul-betul dapat
10:27
put a bomb inside a pickle barrel
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menjatuhkan bom ke dalam tong acar
10:29
at 20,000 ft."
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dari ketinggian 20.000 kaki (6096 meter)."
10:31
And you know what, it's true; they actually can do that now.
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Dan Anda tahu, hal tersebut benar; mereka sungguh dapat melakukannya sekarang.
10:34
But we need to be very clear
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Tapi kita perlu menyadari
10:36
about how little that means.
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bahwa hal itu tak penting.
10:39
In the Iraq War, at the beginning of the first Iraq War,
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Dalam Perang Irak, pada awal Perang Irak pertama,
10:42
the U.S. military, the air force,
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Angkatan Udara Amerika Serikat,
10:44
sent two squadrons of F-15E Fighter Eagles
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mengirimkan dua skuadron F-15E Fighter Eagles
10:47
to the Iraqi desert
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ke gurun Irak
10:49
equipped with these five million dollar cameras
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dilengkapi dengan kamera seharga lima juta dolar
10:51
that allowed them to see the entire desert floor.
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yang membuat mereka dapat melihat seluruh lantai gurun.
10:54
And their mission was to find and to destroy --
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Misi mereka adalah menemukan dan menghancurkan --
10:57
remember the Scud missile launchers,
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ingat mengenai pelontar rudal Scud,
10:59
those surface-to-air missiles
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rudal menghadap ke udara
11:01
that the Iraqis were launching at the Israelis?
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yang Irak tembakkan ke Israel?
11:03
The mission of the two squadrons
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Misi dari dua skuadron tersebut
11:05
was to get rid of all the Scud missile launchers.
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adalah untuk menyingkirkan pelontar rudal Scud.
11:08
And so they flew missions day and night,
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Jadi mereka mejalankan misi siang dan malam,
11:10
and they dropped thousands of bombs,
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dan mereka menjatuhkan ribuan bom,
11:12
and they fired thousands of missiles
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dan mereka menembakkan ribuan rudal
11:15
in an attempt to get rid of this particular scourge.
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dalam usaha untuk menyingkirkan momok tersebut.
11:18
And after the war was over, there was an audit done --
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Dan ketika perang berakhir, ada sebuah audit --
11:20
as the army always does, the air force always does --
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yang selalu dilakukan Angkatan Udara --
11:22
and they asked the question:
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dan mereka menanyakan pertanyaan:
11:24
how many Scuds did we actually destroy?
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berapa banyak Scud yang betul-betul dihancurkan?
11:26
You know what the answer was?
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Anda tahu jawabannya?
11:28
Zero, not a single one.
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Nol, tidak satu pun.
11:30
Now why is that?
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Mengapa hal itu terjadi?
11:32
Is it because their weapons weren't accurate?
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Karena senjata mereka tidak akurat?
11:34
Oh no, they were brilliantly accurate.
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Tidak, mereka sangat akurat.
11:37
They could have destroyed this little thing right here
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Mereka dapat menghancurkan benda kecil di sana
11:39
from 25,000 ft.
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dari ketinggian 25.000 kaki (7620 meter).
11:41
The issue was they didn't know where the Scud launchers were.
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Masalahnya adalah mereka tidak tahu di mana lokasi pelontar Scud.
11:45
The problem with bombs and pickle barrels
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Masalah dengan bom dan tong acar
11:48
is not getting the bomb inside the pickle barrel,
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bukan mengenai bagaimana memasukkan bom ke dalam tong acar,
11:50
it's knowing how to find the pickle barrel.
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tapi mengetahui lokasi tong acarnya.
11:53
That's always been the harder problem
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Itu selalu menjadi masalah yang lebih sulit
11:55
when it comes to fighting wars.
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ketika dalam peperangan.
11:57
Or take the battle in Afghanistan.
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Atau contoh pertempuran di Afghanistan.
12:00
What is the signature weapon
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Apakah senjata pamungkas
12:02
of the CIA's war in Northwest Pakistan?
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dari perang CIA di Barat Laut Pakistan?
12:04
It's the drone. What is the drone?
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Rudal tak berawak. Apa itu rudal tak berawak?
12:07
Well it is the grandson of the Norden Mark 15 bombsight.
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Itu adalah cucu dari pembidik bom Norden Mark 15.
12:11
It is this weapon of devastating accuracy and precision.
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Senjata yang memiliki keakuratan dan presisi penghancur.
12:15
And over the course of the last six years
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Dan dalam enam tahun terakhir
12:17
in Northwest Pakistan,
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di Barat Laut Pakistan,
12:20
the CIA has flown hundreds of drone missiles,
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CIA telah meluncurkan ribuan rudal tak berawak,
12:23
and it's used those drones
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dan menggunakannya
12:25
to kill 2,000 suspected
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untuk membunuh 2000 orang yang diduga sebagai
12:27
Pakistani and Taliban militants.
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militan Pakistan dan Taliban.
12:31
Now what is the accuracy of those drones?
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Sekarang bagaimana dengan keakuratannya?
12:34
Well it's extraordinary.
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Sangat luar biasa.
12:36
We think we're now at 95 percent accuracy
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Mungkin sekitar 95 persen akurat
12:39
when it comes to drone strikes.
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ketika mengenai sasaran.
12:41
95 percent of the people we kill need to be killed, right?
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95 persen dari orang yang perlu dibunuh, betul?
12:44
That is one of the most extraordinary records
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Itu adalah sebuah rekor yang luar biasa
12:46
in the history of modern warfare.
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dalam sejarah perang modern.
12:48
But do you know what the crucial thing is?
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Tapi apakah Anda tahu hal yang penting?
12:50
In that exact same period
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Pada waktu yang sama
12:52
that we've been using these drones
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ketika kita menggunakan misil tak berawak tersebut
12:54
with devastating accuracy,
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dengan tingkat akurasi yang tinggi,
12:56
the number of attacks, of suicide attacks and terrorist attacks,
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jumlah serangan bunuh diri dan teroris,
12:59
against American forces in Afghanistan
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yang melawan angkatan bersenjata Amerika di Afghanistan
13:01
has increased tenfold.
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meningkat sepuluh kali lipat.
13:04
As we have gotten more and more efficient
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Ketika kita semakin efisien
13:06
in killing them,
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dalam membunuh mereka,
13:08
they have become angrier and angrier
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mereka semakin marah dan marah
13:11
and more and more motivated to kill us.
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dan semakin termotivasi untuk membunuh kita.
13:14
I have not described to you a success story.
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Saya tidak menceritakan sebuah kisah sukses.
13:17
I've described to you
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Saya menceritakan
13:19
the opposite of a success story.
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kebalikan dari kisah sukses.
13:21
And this is the problem
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Dan ini masalah
13:23
with our infatuation with the things we make.
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dengan kegilaan terhadap alat yang kita buat.
13:25
We think the things we make can solve our problems,
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Kita berpikir bahwa sebuah alat dapat menyelesaikan masalah,
13:28
but our problems are much more complex than that.
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tapi masalah kita lebih kompleks dari hal itu.
13:31
The issue isn't the accuracy of the bombs you have,
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Isunya bukan akurasi bom,
13:34
it's how you use the bombs you have,
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tapi cara menggunakannya,
13:36
and more importantly,
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dan lebih penting lagi,
13:38
whether you ought to use bombs at all.
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apakah bom harus digunakan sama sekali.
13:42
There's a postscript
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Ada catatan tambahan
13:44
to the Norden story
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untuk cerita Norden
13:46
of Carl Norden and his fabulous bombsight.
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dari Carl Norden dan pembidik bomnya yang luar biasa.
13:49
And that is, on August 6th, 1945,
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Waktu itu, tanggal 6 Agustus 1945,
13:52
a B-29 bomber called the Enola Gay
332
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sebuah pesawat pembom B-29 yang disebut Enola Gay
13:55
flew over Japan
333
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terbang ke Jepang
13:57
and, using a Norden bombsight,
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menggunakan pembidik bom Norden,
13:59
dropped a very large thermonuclear device
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menjatuhkan sebuah bom nuklir yang amat besar
14:02
on the city of Hiroshima.
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di kota Hiroshima.
14:05
And as was typical with the Norden bombsight,
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Sebagaimana pembidik bom Norden,
14:08
the bomb actually missed its target by 800 ft.
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bom itu meleset dari targetnya sejauh 800 kaki (244 meter).
14:11
But of course, it didn't matter.
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Tapi tentu saja hal tersebut tidak penting.
14:14
And that's the greatest irony of all
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Dan itu adalah ironi terbesar yang muncul
14:16
when it comes to the Norden bombsight.
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dari pembidik bom Norden.
14:19
the air force's 1.5 billion dollar bombsight
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pembidik bom 1,5 miliar dolar milik angkatan udara
14:23
was used to drop its three billion dollar bomb,
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digunakan untuk menjatuhkan bom seharga tiga miliar dolar,
14:27
which didn't need a bombsight at all.
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yang tidak butuh pembidik bom sama sekali.
14:30
Meanwhile, back in New York,
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Sementara itu, di New York,
14:32
no one told Carl Norden
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tidak ada yang memberitahu Carl Norden
14:34
that his bombsight was used over Hiroshima.
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bahwa pembidik bomnya digunakan di Hiroshima.
14:37
He was a committed Christian.
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Dia adalah Kristen yang taat.
14:39
He thought he had designed something
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Ia berpikir bahwa ia telah mendesain sesuatu
14:41
that would reduce the toll of suffering in war.
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yang dapat mengurangi penderitaan perang.
14:44
It would have broken his heart.
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Hal ini akan mematahkan hatinya.
14:47
(Applause)
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(Tepuk tangan)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Malcolm Gladwell - WriterDetective of fads and emerging subcultures, chronicler of jobs-you-never-knew-existed, Malcolm Gladwell's work is toppling the popular understanding of bias, crime, food, marketing, race, consumers and intelligence.
Why you should listen
Malcolm Gladwell searches for the counterintuitive in what we all take to be the mundane: cookies, sneakers, pasta sauce. A New Yorker staff writer since 1996, he visits obscure laboratories and infomercial set kitchens as often as the hangouts of freelance cool-hunters -- a sort of pop-R&D gumshoe -- and for that has become a star lecturer and bestselling author.
Sparkling with curiosity, undaunted by difficult research (yet an eloquent, accessible writer), his work uncovers truths hidden in strange data. His always-delightful blog tackles topics from serial killers to steroids in sports, while provocative recent work in the New Yorker sheds new light on the Flynn effect -- the decades-spanning rise in I.Q. scores.
Gladwell has written four books. The Tipping Point, which began as a New Yorker piece, applies the principles of epidemiology to crime (and sneaker sales), while Blink examines the unconscious processes that allow the mind to "thin slice" reality -- and make decisions in the blink of an eye. His third book, Outliers, questions the inevitabilities of success and identifies the relation of success to nature versus nurture. The newest work, What the Dog Saw and Other Adventures, is an anthology of his New Yorker contributions.
He says: "There is more going on beneath the surface than we think, and more going on in little, finite moments of time than we would guess."
Malcolm Gladwell | Speaker | TED.com