TEDGlobal 2011
Malcolm Gladwell: The strange tale of the Norden bombsight
Malkolm Gledvel (Malcolm Gladwell): Čudna priča o Nordenovoj nišanskoj spravi
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Veliki pripovedač Malkolm Gledvel (Malcolm Gladwell) priča o Nordenovoj nišanskoj spravi, revolucionarnom dostignuću tehnologije Drugog svetskog rata, sa neočekivanim ishodom
Malcolm Gladwell - Writer
Detective of fads and emerging subcultures, chronicler of jobs-you-never-knew-existed, Malcolm Gladwell's work is toppling the popular understanding of bias, crime, food, marketing, race, consumers and intelligence. Full bio
Detective of fads and emerging subcultures, chronicler of jobs-you-never-knew-existed, Malcolm Gladwell's work is toppling the popular understanding of bias, crime, food, marketing, race, consumers and intelligence. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
00:17
It's a real pleasure to be here.
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Pravo je zadovoljstvo biti ovde.
00:19
I last did a TEDTalk
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Posljednji put sam držao TED govor
00:21
I think about seven years ago or so.
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mislim, pre nekih sedam godina.
00:25
I talked about spaghetti sauce.
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Pričao sam o sosu za špagete.
00:28
And so many people, I guess, watch those videos.
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Pretpostavljam da mnogi gledaju te snimke.
00:31
People have been coming up to me ever since
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Ljudi mi od tada prilaze
00:33
to ask me questions about spaghetti sauce,
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da bi me pitali o sosu za špagete,
00:35
which is a wonderful thing in the short term --
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što je predivno, bar neko vreme
00:38
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
00:40
but it's proven to be less than ideal
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ali se nije ispostavilo idilično
00:42
over seven years.
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tokom sedam godina.
00:44
And so I though I would come
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I tako sam pomislio da dođem
00:46
and try and put spaghetti sauce behind me.
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da probam da se rešim tog sosa za špagete.
00:49
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
00:51
The theme of this morning's session is Things We Make.
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Tema ovog jutra su "Stvari koje pravimo"
00:54
And so I thought I would tell a story
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pa sam mislio da ispričam priču
00:56
about someone
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o nekome ko je napravio
00:58
who made one of the most precious objects
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jedan od najdragocenijih predmeta
01:00
of his era.
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svog doba.
01:02
And the man's name is Carl Norden.
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Njegovo ime je Karl Norden.
01:05
Carl Norden was born in 1880.
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Karl Norden se rodio 1880.
01:07
And he was Swiss.
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Bio je Švajcarac.
01:09
And of course, the Swiss can be divided
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I naravno, Švajcarce možemo podeliti
01:11
into two general categories:
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u dve kategorije:
01:13
those who make small, exquisite,
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na one koji prave male,
01:15
expensive objects
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izvanredne, skupe predmete
01:17
and those who handle the money
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i na one koji se bave novcem
01:19
of those who buy small, exquisite,
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onih koji kupuju male, izvanredne,
01:22
expensive objects.
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skupe predmete.
01:24
And Carl Norden is very firmly in the former camp.
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Karl Norden, nesumnjivo, spada u prvu grupu.
01:27
He's an engineer.
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On je inženjer.
01:29
He goes to the Federal Polytech in Zurich.
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On pohađa Federalni politehnički institut u Cirihu.
01:32
In fact, one of his classmates is a young man named Lenin
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Ustvari, jedan od njegovih kolega je mlad momak po imenu Lenjin
01:35
who would go on
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koji će kasnije
01:37
to break small, expensive, exquisite objects.
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razbijati male, skupe, izvanredne predmete.
01:41
And he's a Swiss engineer, Carl.
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Karl je švajcarski inženjer.
01:44
And I mean that in its fullest sense of the word.
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Mislim to u punom smislu reči.
01:47
He wears three-piece suits;
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On nosi trodelna odela,
01:49
and he has a very, very small, important mustache;
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i ima vrlo, vrlo mali, važni brk,
01:54
and he is domineering
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i arogantan je
01:56
and narcissistic
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i narcisoidan
01:58
and driven
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i motivisan
02:00
and has an extraordinary ego;
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i ima ogroman ego,
02:02
and he works 16-hour days;
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i radi 16 sati dnevno,
02:05
and he has very strong feelings about alternating current;
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i ima vrlo izražen stav o naizmeničnoj struji,
02:08
and he feels like a suntan is a sign of moral weakness;
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i misli da je preplanulost znak slabog morala,
02:12
and he drinks lots of coffee;
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i pije mnogo kafe,
02:14
and he does his best work
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i najbolje radi
02:16
sitting in his mother's kitchen in Zurich for hours
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sedeći u majčinoj kuhinji u Cirihu,
02:18
in complete silence
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satima u potpunoj tišini
02:20
with nothing but a slide rule.
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koristeći samo šiber.
02:22
In any case,
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Uglavnom,
02:24
Carl Norden emigrates to the United States
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Karl Norden emigrira u SAD
02:27
just before the First World War
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taman pred Prvi svetski rat
02:29
and sets up shop on Lafayette Street
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i bazira se u ulici Lafajet
02:31
in downtown Manhattan.
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u centru Menhetna.
02:33
And he becomes obsessed with the question
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I postaje opsednut pitanjem
02:35
of how to drop bombs from an airplane.
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kako bacati bombe iz aviona.
02:38
Now if you think about it,
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E sad, ako razmislite o tome,
02:40
in the age before GPS and radar,
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u doba pre GPS-a i radara,
02:43
that was obviously a really difficult problem.
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to je, očigledno, bio težak problem.
02:45
It's a complicated physics problem.
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To je komplikovan fizički problem.
02:47
You've got a plane that's thousands of feet up in the air,
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Imate avion na velikoj visini
02:50
going at hundreds of miles an hour,
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koji juri stotine kilometara na sat,
02:52
and you're trying to drop an object, a bomb,
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i pokušavate da ispustite predmet, bombu,
02:55
towards some stationary target
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usmerenu ka statičnoj meti
02:57
in the face of all kinds of winds and cloud cover
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uprkos raznim vetrovima i oblačnosti
03:00
and all kinds of other impediments.
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i kojekakvim drugim smetnjama.
03:02
And all sorts of people,
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I mnogi su,
03:04
moving up to the First World War and between the wars,
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pred Prvi svetski i između ratova,
03:06
tried to solve this problem,
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pokušavali da reše ovaj problem,
03:08
and nearly everybody came up short.
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i malo ko je uspeo.
03:10
The bombsights that were available
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Tadašnje nišanske sprave
03:12
were incredibly crude.
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su bile veoma primitivne.
03:14
But Carl Norden is really the one who cracks the code.
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Ali Karl Norden je zapravo taj koji rešava zagonetku.
03:17
And he comes up with this incredibly complicated device.
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On pravi veoma komplikovanu napravu.
03:20
It weighs about 50 lbs.
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Tešku oko 25 kg.
03:22
It's called the Norden Mark 15 bombsight.
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Zove se Norden Mark 15 nišanska sprava.
03:26
And it has all kinds of levers and ball-bearings
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I ima svakakve poluge i ležajeve
03:28
and gadgets and gauges.
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i kuke i kvake.
03:31
And he makes this complicated thing.
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I on konstruiše
03:34
And what he allows people to do
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tu komplikovanu stvar
03:36
is he makes the bombardier take this particular object,
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koja omogućava nišandžiji da odabere objekat,
03:40
visually sight the target,
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vizuelno izdvajajući metu,
03:42
because they're in the Plexiglas cone of the bomber,
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jer se nalazi u nosu bombardera koji je napravljen od pleksiglasa,
03:46
and then they plug in the altitude of the plane,
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i onda unosi visinu
03:49
the speed of the plane, the speed of the wind
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brzinu aviona i brzinu vetra
03:52
and the coordinates
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i koordinate
03:54
of the target.
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mete.
03:56
And the bombsight will tell him when to drop the bomb.
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I nišanska sprava će mu kazati kad da baci bombu.
04:00
And as Norden famously says,
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I kao što je Norden poznato izjavio,
04:03
"Before that bombsight came along,
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"Pre pronalaska nišanske sprave,
04:05
bombs would routinely miss their target
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bombe su uobičajeno promašivale metu
04:07
by a mile or more."
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za kilometar ili i više."
04:09
But he said, with the Mark 15 Norden bombsight,
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Ali, reče on, sa Mark 15 Norden nišanom,
04:12
he could drop a bomb into a pickle barrel
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moguće je ubaciti bombu u odžak
04:14
at 20,000 ft.
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sa 6000 metara.
04:16
Now I cannot tell you
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E sad, ne mogu da vam predstavim
04:18
how incredibly excited
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kakvo oduševljenje
04:20
the U.S. military was
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je u američkoj vojsci
04:22
by the news of the Norden bombsight.
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izazvala vest o Nordenovoj nišanskoj spravi.
04:25
It was like manna from heaven.
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Kao mana sa nebesa.
04:27
Here was an army
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Imamo jednu vojsku
04:29
that had just had experience in the First World War,
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koja samo što je iskusila Prvi svetski rat,
04:31
where millions of men
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gde su se milioni vojnika
04:33
fought each other in the trenches,
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međusobno borili po rovovima,
04:35
getting nowhere, making no progress,
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zakucani u mestu, ne napredujući,
04:37
and here someone had come up with a device
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i onda neko pronalazi napravu
04:41
that allowed them to fly up in the skies
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koja im omogućava da se vinu u nebo
04:43
high above enemy territory
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visoko iznad neprijateljske teritorije
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and destroy whatever they wanted
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i da razore šta god žele
04:47
with pinpoint accuracy.
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neviđenom preciznošću.
04:49
And the U.S. military
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I američka vojska
04:51
spends 1.5 billion dollars --
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troši 1,5 milijardi dolara --
04:53
billion dollars in 1940 dollars --
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milijarda dolara po kursu iz 1940. --
04:56
developing the Norden bombsight.
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razvijajući Nordenovu nišansku spravu.
04:58
And to put that in perspective,
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I da stavimo stvari u perspektivu,
05:01
the total cost of the Manhattan project
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ukupna cena projekta Menhetn
05:03
was three billion dollars.
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je bila 3 milijarde dolara.
05:05
Half as much money was spent on this Norden bombsight
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Upola je potrošeno na Nordenov nišan
05:08
as was spent on the most famous military-industrial project
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od onoga što je potrošeno na najpoznatiji vojno-industrijski poduhvat
05:12
of the modern era.
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savremenog doba.
05:14
And there were people, strategists, within the U.S. military
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I bilo je ljudi, stratega, u američkoj vojsci
05:17
who genuinely thought that this single device
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koji su iskreno verovali da će
05:19
was going to spell the difference
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baš ta naprava učiniti prevagu
05:21
between defeat and victory
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između poraza i pobede
05:23
when it came to the battle against the Nazis
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u borbi protiv nacista
05:25
and against the Japanese.
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i protiv Japanaca.
05:27
And for Norden as well,
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I za Nordena je takođe,
05:29
this device had incredible moral importance,
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ova naprava imala neverovatnu moralnu težinu,
05:32
because Norden was a committed Christian.
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jer Norden je bio posvećeni hrišćanin.
05:34
In fact, he would always get upset
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U stvari, uvek bi se uzbudio
05:36
when people referred to the bombsight as his invention,
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kada su ljudi govorili o nišanu kao o njegovom izumu,
05:39
because in his eyes,
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jer u njegovim očima,
05:41
only God could invent things.
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samo bog je mogao da stvara.
05:43
He was simple the instrument of God's will.
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On je jednostavno bio instrument božije volje.
05:45
And what was God's will?
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A šta je to bog želeo?
05:47
Well God's will was that the amount of suffering in any kind of war
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Pa božija volja beše da količina patnje u bilo kakvom ratu
05:50
be reduced to as small an amount as possible.
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bude smanjena na najmanju moguću meru.
05:53
And what did the Norden bombsight do?
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I šta je Nordenova nišanska sprava činila?
05:55
Well it allowed you to do that.
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Pa omogućavala vam je baš to.
05:57
It allowed you to bomb only those things
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Omogućavala vam je da bombardujete samo ono
05:59
that you absolutely needed and wanted to bomb.
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što vam je bilo apsolutno nephodno i što ste želeli.
06:03
So in the years leading up to the Second World War,
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I tako, u godinama pred Drugi svetski rat,
06:06
the U.S. military buys 90,000
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američka vojska kupuje 90 hiljada
06:09
of these Norden bombsights
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tih Nordenovih nišana
06:11
at a cost of $14,000 each --
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po ceni od 14 hiljada dolara svaki --
06:13
again, in 1940 dollars, that's a lot of money.
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opet, po kursu iz 1940., to je mnogo para.
06:16
And they trained 50,000 bombardiers on how to use them --
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I obučili su 50 hiljada nišandžija da ih koriste --
06:19
long extensive, months-long training sessions --
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to su obimni, višemesečni treninzi --
06:23
because these things are essentially analog computers;
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jer to su u suštini analogni kompjuteri;
06:25
they're not easy to use.
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nisu prosti za upotrebu.
06:27
And they make everyone of those bombardiers take an oath,
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I svaki od tih nišandžija se zakleo,
06:30
to swear that if they're ever captured,
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da u slučaju da bude zarobljen,
06:33
they will not divulge a single detail
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neće neprijatelju odati
06:35
of this particular device to the enemy,
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ni najmanju sitnicu o toj spravi,
06:37
because it's imperative the enemy not get their hands
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jer imperativ je da se neprijatelj ne dokopa
06:40
on this absolutely essential piece of technology.
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te apsolutno ključne tehnologije.
06:42
And whenever the Norden bombsight is taken onto a plane,
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I kadgod je Nordenova nišanska sprava unošena u avion,
06:45
it's escorted there by a series of armed guards.
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praćena je odredima naoružane straže.
06:48
And it's carried in a box with a canvas shroud over it.
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Nošena je u kutiji prekrivenoj platnenim pokrovom.
06:51
And the box is handcuffed to one of the guards.
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I kutija je bila lisicama vezana za jednog od stražara.
06:54
It's never allowed to be photographed.
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Nikada nije dozvoljeno da se fotografiše.
06:56
And there's a little incendiary device inside of it,
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I postojala je mala zapaljiva naprava unutar nje,
06:59
so that, if the plane ever crashes, it will be destroyed
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tako da se, ukoliko bi avion pao, uništi
07:02
and there's no way the enemy can ever get their hands on it.
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i ni u kom slučaju ne padne neprijatelju u ruke.
07:05
The Norden bombsight
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Nordenov nišan
07:07
is the Holy Grail.
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je Sveti Gral.
07:10
So what happens during the Second World War?
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I šta se dešava tokom Drugog svetskog rata?
07:13
Well, it turns out it's not the Holy Grail.
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Pa, ispostavlja se da to i nije Sveti Gral.
07:16
In practice, the Norden bombsight
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U praksi, Nordenov nišan
07:18
can drop a bomb into a pickle barrel at 20,000 ft.,
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može da ubaci bombu u odžak sa 6000 metara,
07:21
but that's under perfect conditions.
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ali samo u savršenim uslovima.
07:23
And of course, in wartime,
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I naravno, u ratu,
07:25
conditions aren't perfect.
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uslovi nisu savršeni.
07:27
First of all, it's really hard to use -- really hard to use.
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Prvo, stvarno ga je teško koristiti -- stvarno teško.
07:30
And not all of the people
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I nisu baš svi
07:32
who are of those 50,000 men who are bombardiers
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od tih 50 hiljada nišandžija
07:34
have the ability to properly program an analog computer.
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talentovani da pravilno programiraju analogni kompjuter.
07:38
Secondly, it breaks down a lot.
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Drugo, mnogo se kvari.
07:40
It's full of all kinds of gyroscopes and pulleys
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Prepun je raznih žiroskopa i čekrka
07:42
and gadgets and ball-bearings,
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i tih kuka i kvaka,
07:44
and they don't work as well as they ought to
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i ne funkcionišu baš tako dobro
07:46
in the heat of battle.
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kao što bi trebale u žaru borbe.
07:48
Thirdly, when Norden was making his calculations,
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Treće, kad je Norden pravio svoje proračune,
07:51
he assumed that a plane would be flying
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predviđao je da će avion leteti
07:53
at a relatively slow speed at low altitudes.
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relativno sporo i na maloj visini.
07:56
Well in a real war, you can't do that;
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Pa u ratu to ne možete,
07:58
you'll get shot down.
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oboriće vas.
08:00
So they started flying them at high altitudes at incredibly high speeds.
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I tako su počeli da lete jako visoko i jako brzo.
08:03
And the Norden bombsight doesn't work as well
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A Nordenova nišanska sprava
08:05
under those conditions.
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ne radi dobro u tim uslovima.
08:07
But most of all,
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Ali najbitnije,
08:09
the Norden bombsight required the bombardier
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Nordenova sprava je tražila od nišandžije
08:11
to make visual contact with the target.
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da vizuelno locira metu.
08:14
But of course, what happens in real life?
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Ali naravno, šta se dešava u stvarnom životu?
08:16
There are clouds, right.
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Tu su oblaci, da.
08:19
It needs cloudless sky to be really accurate.
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Za stvarnu preciznost je potrebno vedro nebo.
08:22
Well how many cloudless skies
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Pa koliko vedrog neba
08:24
do you think there were above Central Europe
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mislite da je bilo iznad centralne Evrope
08:26
between 1940 and 1945?
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između 1940. i 1945.?
08:29
Not a lot.
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Ne mnogo.
08:31
And then to give you a sense
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I da vam približim koliko je
08:33
of just how inaccurate the Norden bombsight was,
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neprecizan bio Nordenov nišan,
08:35
there was a famous case in 1944
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postoji poznat slučaj iz 1944.
08:37
where the Allies bombed a chemical plant in Leuna, Germany.
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kada su saveznici bombardovali hemijsku fabriku u Lojnu u Nemačkoj.
08:41
And the chemical plant comprised
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Ta fabrika je zauzimala
08:43
757 acres.
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307 hektara.
08:45
And over the course of 22 bombing missions,
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I tokom 22 bombarderske misije,
08:48
the Allies dropped 85,000 bombs
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saveznici su bacili 85 hiljada bombi
08:53
on this 757 acre chemical plant,
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na tih 307 hektara hemijske fabrike,
08:57
using the Norden bombsight.
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koristeći Nordenovu nišansku spravu.
09:00
Well what percentage of those bombs
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Pa šta mislite koliki procenat tih bombi
09:02
do you think actually landed
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je stvarno pao
09:04
inside the 700-acre perimeter of the plant?
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u tih 300 fabričkih hektara?
09:07
10 percent. 10 percent.
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10 posto. 10 procenata.
09:10
And of those 10 percent that landed,
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I od tih 10 procenata koji su pogodili,
09:12
16 percent didn't even go off; they were duds.
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16 posto se nije aktiviralo, bili su ćorci.
09:15
The Leuna chemical plant,
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Fabrika u Lojni je,
09:17
after one of the most extensive bombings in the history of the war,
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posle jednog od najvećih bombardovanja u istoriji rata,
09:20
was up and running within weeks.
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proradila u roku od nekoliko nedelja.
09:23
And by the way, all those precautions
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I usput, sva ona predostrožnost
09:25
to keep the Norden bombsight out of the hands of the Nazis?
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da Nordenov nišan ne dopadne nacistima?
09:28
Well it turns out
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Ispostavilo se da je,
09:30
that Carl Norden, as a proper Swiss,
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Karl kao pravi Švajcarac,
09:32
was very enamored of German engineers.
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bio opčinjen nemačkim inženjerima.
09:35
So in the 1930s, he hired a whole bunch of them,
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Pa je tako tokom 1930-ih, zaposlio gomilu,
09:37
including a man named Hermann Long
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uključujući i Hermana Longa
09:39
who, in 1938,
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koji je 1938.,
09:41
gave a complete set of the plans for the Norden bombsight to the Nazis.
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predao komplet planova za Nordenov nišan nacistima.
09:44
So they had their own Norden bombsight throughout the entire war --
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Tako da su i oni imali svoj Nordenov nišan kroz ceo rat--
09:47
which also, by the way, didn't work very well.
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koji takođe, usput, nije dobro radio.
09:50
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
09:52
So why do we talk about the Norden bombsight?
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Pa zašto onda govorimo o Nordenovoj nišanskoj spravi?
09:55
Well because we live in an age
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Zato što živimo u dobu
09:57
where there are lots and lots
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sa mnogo, mnogo
09:59
of Norden bombsights.
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Nordenovih nišana.
10:01
We live in a time where there are all kinds
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Živimo u vreme gde ima svih fela
10:03
of really, really smart people
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stvarno, stvarno pametnih ljudi
10:05
running around, saying that they've invented gadgets
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koji jure, pričajući da su izumeli sprave
10:07
that will forever change our world.
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koje će zauvek promeniti naš svet.
10:09
They've invented websites that will allow people to be free.
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Izmislili su veb strane koje će ljudima doneti oslobođenje.
10:12
They've invented some kind of this thing, or this thing, or this thing
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Izmislili su nešto ovakvo ili onakvo ili ovakvo
10:16
that will make our world forever better.
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što će učiniti naš svet zauvek boljim.
10:19
If you go into the military,
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Ako se obratite vojsci,
10:21
you'll find lots of Carl Nordens as well.
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naći ćete takođe mnogo Karla Nordena.
10:23
If you go to the Pentagon, they will say,
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Ako se uputite u Pentagon, reći će vam,
10:25
"You know what, now we really can
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"Znate šta, sada stvarno možemo
10:27
put a bomb inside a pickle barrel
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da ubacimo bombu kroz odžak
10:29
at 20,000 ft."
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sa 6000 metara."
10:31
And you know what, it's true; they actually can do that now.
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I da znate, tačno je; stvarno to sad mogu da urade.
10:34
But we need to be very clear
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Ali mora da nam bude jasno
10:36
about how little that means.
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koliko to malo znači.
10:39
In the Iraq War, at the beginning of the first Iraq War,
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U Iračkom ratu, na početku prvog rata,
10:42
the U.S. military, the air force,
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američka vojska, vazduhoplovstvo,
10:44
sent two squadrons of F-15E Fighter Eagles
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je poslalo dve eskadrile F-15 bombardera
10:47
to the Iraqi desert
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u iračku pustinju
10:49
equipped with these five million dollar cameras
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opremljene kamerama od 5 miliona dolara
10:51
that allowed them to see the entire desert floor.
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koje su im omogućavale da vide celu pustinju.
10:54
And their mission was to find and to destroy --
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Njihova misija je bila da nađu i unište --
10:57
remember the Scud missile launchers,
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sećate se Skad raketa,
10:59
those surface-to-air missiles
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onih zemlja-vazduh projektila
11:01
that the Iraqis were launching at the Israelis?
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što su Iračani lansirali na Izraelce?
11:03
The mission of the two squadrons
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Misija te dve eskadrile
11:05
was to get rid of all the Scud missile launchers.
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je bila da se reše tih Skadovih lansera.
11:08
And so they flew missions day and night,
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I tako su leteli misije danonoćno,
11:10
and they dropped thousands of bombs,
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i bacili su hiljade bombi,
11:12
and they fired thousands of missiles
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i ispalili su hiljade raketa
11:15
in an attempt to get rid of this particular scourge.
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u pokušaju da se reše baš te određene napasti.
11:18
And after the war was over, there was an audit done --
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I posle rata, urađena je revizija --
11:20
as the army always does, the air force always does --
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kao što vojska uvek radi, vazduhoplovstvo uvek radi --
11:22
and they asked the question:
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i postavili su pitanje:
11:24
how many Scuds did we actually destroy?
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koliko smo Skadova stvarno uništili?
11:26
You know what the answer was?
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Znate li šta je bio odgovor?
11:28
Zero, not a single one.
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Nula, baš ni jedan.
11:30
Now why is that?
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A zašto to?
11:32
Is it because their weapons weren't accurate?
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Da li zato što su im oružja bila neprecizna?
11:34
Oh no, they were brilliantly accurate.
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O ne, bila su briljantno precizna.
11:37
They could have destroyed this little thing right here
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Mogli su da unište ovu malu stvar ovde
11:39
from 25,000 ft.
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sa 7000 metara.
11:41
The issue was they didn't know where the Scud launchers were.
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Problem je u tome što nisu znali gde su Skadovi.
11:45
The problem with bombs and pickle barrels
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Problem sa bombama i odžacima
11:48
is not getting the bomb inside the pickle barrel,
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nije u ubacivanju bombe u odžak
11:50
it's knowing how to find the pickle barrel.
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već u pronalaženju tog odžaka.
11:53
That's always been the harder problem
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To je uvek bio teži problem
11:55
when it comes to fighting wars.
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kad se ratuje.
11:57
Or take the battle in Afghanistan.
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Ili uzmimo bitku u Avganistanu.
12:00
What is the signature weapon
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Koje je oružje simbol
12:02
of the CIA's war in Northwest Pakistan?
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obaveštajnog rata u severozapadnom Pakistanu?
12:04
It's the drone. What is the drone?
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To je bespilotna letelica. A šta je to?
12:07
Well it is the grandson of the Norden Mark 15 bombsight.
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Pa to je unuk Norden Mark 15 nišanske sprave.
12:11
It is this weapon of devastating accuracy and precision.
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To je oružje razorne tačnosti i preciznosti.
12:15
And over the course of the last six years
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I tokom poslednjih 6 godina
12:17
in Northwest Pakistan,
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u severozapadnom Pakistanu,
12:20
the CIA has flown hundreds of drone missiles,
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CIA je koristila stotine bespilotnih letelica,
12:23
and it's used those drones
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i koristila ih je
12:25
to kill 2,000 suspected
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da ubije 2 hiljade sumnjivih
12:27
Pakistani and Taliban militants.
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pakistanskih i talibanskih boraca.
12:31
Now what is the accuracy of those drones?
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I kakva je preciznost tih bespilotnih letelica?
12:34
Well it's extraordinary.
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Izvanredna.
12:36
We think we're now at 95 percent accuracy
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Procenjujemo da smo sad na 95 posto tačnosti
12:39
when it comes to drone strikes.
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u napadima bespilotnim letelicama.
12:41
95 percent of the people we kill need to be killed, right?
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95 posto ljudi koje smo ubili, bilo je potrebno ubiti, da?
12:44
That is one of the most extraordinary records
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To je jedan od najizvanrednijih rezultata
12:46
in the history of modern warfare.
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u modernoj istoriji ratovanja.
12:48
But do you know what the crucial thing is?
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Ali da li znate šta je presudno?
12:50
In that exact same period
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U tom istom periodu
12:52
that we've been using these drones
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dok smo koristili bespilotne letelice
12:54
with devastating accuracy,
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sa razornom preciznošću,
12:56
the number of attacks, of suicide attacks and terrorist attacks,
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broj napada, samoubilačkih i terorističkih napada,
12:59
against American forces in Afghanistan
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protiv američkih snaga u Avganistanu
13:01
has increased tenfold.
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se udesetostručio.
13:04
As we have gotten more and more efficient
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Dok smo mi postajali
13:06
in killing them,
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sve efikasniji u ubijanju njih,
13:08
they have become angrier and angrier
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oni su postajali gnevniji i gnevniji
13:11
and more and more motivated to kill us.
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i sve motivisaniji da ubiju nas.
13:14
I have not described to you a success story.
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Nisam vam opisao priču o uspehu.
13:17
I've described to you
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Opisao sam vam
13:19
the opposite of a success story.
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suprotnost priče o uspehu.
13:21
And this is the problem
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I to je problem sa našom
13:23
with our infatuation with the things we make.
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opčinjenošću stvarima koje proizvodimo.
13:25
We think the things we make can solve our problems,
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Mislimo da će nam stvari rešiti probleme,
13:28
but our problems are much more complex than that.
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ali su naši problemi mnogo kompleksniji.
13:31
The issue isn't the accuracy of the bombs you have,
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U pitanju nije preciznost bombi koje imate
13:34
it's how you use the bombs you have,
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pitanje je kako koristite te bombe,
13:36
and more importantly,
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i još važnije,
13:38
whether you ought to use bombs at all.
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da li treba uopšte i da korisite bombe.
13:42
There's a postscript
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Postoji i post skriptum
13:44
to the Norden story
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toj priči
13:46
of Carl Norden and his fabulous bombsight.
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o Karlu Nordenu i njegovoj legendarnoj nišanskoj spravi.
13:49
And that is, on August 6th, 1945,
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I to je, da je 6. avgusta 1945.,
13:52
a B-29 bomber called the Enola Gay
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bombarder B-29 poznat kao Enola Gej
13:55
flew over Japan
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leteo iznad Japana
13:57
and, using a Norden bombsight,
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i koristeći Nordenov nišan,
13:59
dropped a very large thermonuclear device
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ispustio veoma veliku
14:02
on the city of Hiroshima.
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termonuklearnu napravu na Hirošimu.
14:05
And as was typical with the Norden bombsight,
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I što je bilo tipično za Nordenov nišan,
14:08
the bomb actually missed its target by 800 ft.
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bomba je ustvari promašila metu za nekih 250 metara.
14:11
But of course, it didn't matter.
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Ali naravno, to nije bilo bitno.
14:14
And that's the greatest irony of all
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I to je najveća ironija od svega
14:16
when it comes to the Norden bombsight.
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u priči o Nordenovom nišanu.
14:19
the air force's 1.5 billion dollar bombsight
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Nišan ratnog vazduhoplovstva od 1,5 milijardi dolara
14:23
was used to drop its three billion dollar bomb,
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iskorišćen je da se baci bomba od 3 milijarde dolara,
14:27
which didn't need a bombsight at all.
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za šta nišan uopšte nije ni bio potreban.
14:30
Meanwhile, back in New York,
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Za to vreme, u Njujorku,
14:32
no one told Carl Norden
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niko nije rekao Karlu Nordenu
14:34
that his bombsight was used over Hiroshima.
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da je njegov nišan korišćen iznad Hirošime.
14:37
He was a committed Christian.
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On je bio posvećeni hrišćanin.
14:39
He thought he had designed something
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Mislio je da je stvorio nešto
14:41
that would reduce the toll of suffering in war.
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što će smanjiti teret patnje u ratu.
14:44
It would have broken his heart.
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To bi mu slomilo srce.
14:47
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Malcolm Gladwell - WriterDetective of fads and emerging subcultures, chronicler of jobs-you-never-knew-existed, Malcolm Gladwell's work is toppling the popular understanding of bias, crime, food, marketing, race, consumers and intelligence.
Why you should listen
Malcolm Gladwell searches for the counterintuitive in what we all take to be the mundane: cookies, sneakers, pasta sauce. A New Yorker staff writer since 1996, he visits obscure laboratories and infomercial set kitchens as often as the hangouts of freelance cool-hunters -- a sort of pop-R&D gumshoe -- and for that has become a star lecturer and bestselling author.
Sparkling with curiosity, undaunted by difficult research (yet an eloquent, accessible writer), his work uncovers truths hidden in strange data. His always-delightful blog tackles topics from serial killers to steroids in sports, while provocative recent work in the New Yorker sheds new light on the Flynn effect -- the decades-spanning rise in I.Q. scores.
Gladwell has written four books. The Tipping Point, which began as a New Yorker piece, applies the principles of epidemiology to crime (and sneaker sales), while Blink examines the unconscious processes that allow the mind to "thin slice" reality -- and make decisions in the blink of an eye. His third book, Outliers, questions the inevitabilities of success and identifies the relation of success to nature versus nurture. The newest work, What the Dog Saw and Other Adventures, is an anthology of his New Yorker contributions.
He says: "There is more going on beneath the surface than we think, and more going on in little, finite moments of time than we would guess."
Malcolm Gladwell | Speaker | TED.com