TEDGlobal 2011
Malcolm Gladwell: The strange tale of the Norden bombsight
Malcolm Gladwell: Tregimi i çuditshem i Norden per vendin e makinerise se bombave
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Mjeshtri i tregimit te historise Malcolm Gladwell tregon tregimin e Norden per vendin e makinerise se bombave, nje pjese e novacionit te teknologjise ne Luftes se dyte Boterore me nje rezulat te pa pritur.
Malcolm Gladwell - Writer
Detective of fads and emerging subcultures, chronicler of jobs-you-never-knew-existed, Malcolm Gladwell's work is toppling the popular understanding of bias, crime, food, marketing, race, consumers and intelligence. Full bio
Detective of fads and emerging subcultures, chronicler of jobs-you-never-knew-existed, Malcolm Gladwell's work is toppling the popular understanding of bias, crime, food, marketing, race, consumers and intelligence. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
Thank you.
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(Faleminderit.
00:17
It's a real pleasure to be here.
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Eshte kenaqesi e vecante te jem ketu.
00:19
I last did a TEDTalk
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Per here te fundit kam folur ne TED
00:21
I think about seven years ago or so.
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mendoj para shtate viteve ose ashtu disi.
00:25
I talked about spaghetti sauce.
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Une kam folur per sosin e shpagetave.
00:28
And so many people, I guess, watch those videos.
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Dhe shume njerez, mendoj i shohin keto video.
00:31
People have been coming up to me ever since
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Njerezit kane ardhur tek une qe atehere
00:33
to ask me questions about spaghetti sauce,
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per te me pyetur pytje rreth sosit te shpagetave,
00:35
which is a wonderful thing in the short term --
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e cila eshte nje gje e mrekullueshme brenda nje periudhe te shkurter--
00:38
(Laughter)
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(Buzeqeshje)
00:40
but it's proven to be less than ideal
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por eshte deshmuar qe eshte me pak se ideale
00:42
over seven years.
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ne me shume se shtate vite.
00:44
And so I though I would come
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Dhe keshtu une mendova te vij
00:46
and try and put spaghetti sauce behind me.
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te provoj dhe te vendosi sosin e shpagetave prapa meje.
00:49
(Laughter)
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(Buzeqeshje)
00:51
The theme of this morning's session is Things We Make.
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Tema e sesionit te ketij mengjesi eshte Gjerat qe ne Bejme.
00:54
And so I thought I would tell a story
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Dhe keshtu une mendova te tregoj nje storie
00:56
about someone
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per dike
00:58
who made one of the most precious objects
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i cili ka bere njerin nder objektet me te cmuara
01:00
of his era.
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te epokes se tij.
01:02
And the man's name is Carl Norden.
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Dhe emri i njeriut eshte Carl Norden.
01:05
Carl Norden was born in 1880.
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Carl Norden kishte lindur ne 1880.
01:07
And he was Swiss.
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Dhe ai ishte zviceran.
01:09
And of course, the Swiss can be divided
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Dhe sigurisht, zviceranet mund te ndahen
01:11
into two general categories:
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ne dy kategori te pergjithshme:
01:13
those who make small, exquisite,
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ata te cilet bejne obekte te vogla, te holla
01:15
expensive objects
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dhe te shtrenjta
01:17
and those who handle the money
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dhe ata te cilet mbajne parate
01:19
of those who buy small, exquisite,
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e atyre qe blejne objekte te vogla, te holla
01:22
expensive objects.
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e te shtrenjta.
01:24
And Carl Norden is very firmly in the former camp.
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Dhe Carl Norden eshte shume i vendosur ne kampin fomues.
01:27
He's an engineer.
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Ai eshte nje inxhinjer.
01:29
He goes to the Federal Polytech in Zurich.
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Ai shkon ne Federal Polytech ne Zurih.
01:32
In fact, one of his classmates is a young man named Lenin
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Ne fakt, nje shok i tij i klases eshte nje djale i ri i quajtur Lenin
01:35
who would go on
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i cili vetem
01:37
to break small, expensive, exquisite objects.
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thyente objektet e vogla, shtrejta, e te holla.
01:41
And he's a Swiss engineer, Carl.
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Dhe ai eshte nje inxhinjer zviceran, Carl.
01:44
And I mean that in its fullest sense of the word.
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Dhe dua te them ne kuptimin e plotes te fjales.
01:47
He wears three-piece suits;
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Ai vesh kostum me tri pjese;
01:49
and he has a very, very small, important mustache;
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dhe ai ka mustaqe shume te vogla dhe te rendesishme;
01:54
and he is domineering
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dhe ai eshte autoritar
01:56
and narcissistic
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dhe narcist
01:58
and driven
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dhe i drejtuar
02:00
and has an extraordinary ego;
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nga nje ego e jashtzakonshme;
02:02
and he works 16-hour days;
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ai punon 16 ore ne dite;
02:05
and he has very strong feelings about alternating current;
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dhe ai ka ndjenja shume te forta per alternimin aktual;
02:08
and he feels like a suntan is a sign of moral weakness;
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dhe ai ndjehet sikur nje nxirje eshte shenje e dobesise morale;
02:12
and he drinks lots of coffee;
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dhe ai pine shume kafe;
02:14
and he does his best work
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dhe ai e bene punen e tij me se miri
02:16
sitting in his mother's kitchen in Zurich for hours
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i ulur ne kuzhinen e nenes se tij ne Cyrih per ore te tera
02:18
in complete silence
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ne qetesi te plote
02:20
with nothing but a slide rule.
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me asgje por nje rigë llogaritese.
02:22
In any case,
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Per cdo rast,
02:24
Carl Norden emigrates to the United States
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Carl Norden emigron ne Shtetet e Bashkuara
02:27
just before the First World War
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pak para Luftes se Pare Boterore
02:29
and sets up shop on Lafayette Street
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dhe drejton nje dyqan ne Rrugen Lafayette
02:31
in downtown Manhattan.
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ne qender Manhattan.
02:33
And he becomes obsessed with the question
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Dhe ai behet i opsesionuar me nje pytje
02:35
of how to drop bombs from an airplane.
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si te gjuajme bomba nga aeroplani.
02:38
Now if you think about it,
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Tani nese mendoni per kete,
02:40
in the age before GPS and radar,
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ne kohen para GPS dhe radarit,
02:43
that was obviously a really difficult problem.
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kjo ishte e qarte se ishte nje problem i veshtire.
02:45
It's a complicated physics problem.
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Eshte nje porblem i komplikuar i fizikes
02:47
You've got a plane that's thousands of feet up in the air,
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Ju keni nje aeroplan qe eshte me mijera metra ne ajer,
02:50
going at hundreds of miles an hour,
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duke ecur me qindra meter per ore,
02:52
and you're trying to drop an object, a bomb,
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dhe ju po provoni re hidhni nje objekt, nje bomb,
02:55
towards some stationary target
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drejt ndonje objekti te palevizshem
02:57
in the face of all kinds of winds and cloud cover
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perballe te gjitha llojeve te ererave dhe reve
03:00
and all kinds of other impediments.
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dhe te gjitha llojet e paisjeve tjera ushtarake.
03:02
And all sorts of people,
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Dhe te gjithe tipat e njerezve,
03:04
moving up to the First World War and between the wars,
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duke shkuar deri te Lufta e pare Boterore dhe ne mes lufterave,
03:06
tried to solve this problem,
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provoj te zgjidh kete problem,
03:08
and nearly everybody came up short.
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dhe gati te gjithe dolen te shkurter.
03:10
The bombsights that were available
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Bombat qe ishin te lira
03:12
were incredibly crude.
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ishin jashtezakonisht te paperpunuara.
03:14
But Carl Norden is really the one who cracks the code.
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Por Carl Norden me te vertete eshte ai i cili e theu kodin.
03:17
And he comes up with this incredibly complicated device.
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Dhe ai vije me kete paisje jashtezakonisht te komplikuar.
03:20
It weighs about 50 lbs.
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Peshon rreth 50 Ibs.
03:22
It's called the Norden Mark 15 bombsight.
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Quhet Norden Mark bomba 15.
03:26
And it has all kinds of levers and ball-bearings
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Dhe ka te gjitha llojet e levavave dhe vinçave
03:28
and gadgets and gauges.
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dhe paisjet dhe matese veglash
03:31
And he makes this complicated thing.
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Dhe ai e bene kete gje te komplikuar.
03:34
And what he allows people to do
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Dhe cka ai lejon njerezit te bejne
03:36
is he makes the bombardier take this particular object,
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eshte ai bene bombarduesit te marrin kete objekt te vecante
03:40
visually sight the target,
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vizaulisht ne sy te shenuar,
03:42
because they're in the Plexiglas cone of the bomber,
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sepse ata jane konin Plexiglas te bombarduesit,
03:46
and then they plug in the altitude of the plane,
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dhe pastaj ata e kyqen ne lartesin e aeroplanit,
03:49
the speed of the plane, the speed of the wind
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shpejtesia e aeroplanit, shpejtesia e eres
03:52
and the coordinates
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dhe kordinatat
03:54
of the target.
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e objektit.
03:56
And the bombsight will tell him when to drop the bomb.
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Dhe vendi i makinerise se bombave do ti tregoj atij kur ta hedh bomben.
04:00
And as Norden famously says,
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Dhe sic thote Norden,
04:03
"Before that bombsight came along,
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"Parase te vije ai vend i makinerise se bombave,
04:05
bombs would routinely miss their target
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bombat ne menyre rutinore do te humbasin objektivin e tyre
04:07
by a mile or more."
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per nje milje ose me shume."
04:09
But he said, with the Mark 15 Norden bombsight,
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Por ai tha, me makinerin e bombave Mark 15 Norden,
04:12
he could drop a bomb into a pickle barrel
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ai mund te gjuan nje bombe ne Pickle barrel
04:14
at 20,000 ft.
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ne 20,000 ft.
04:16
Now I cannot tell you
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Tani une nuk mund te ju tregoj
04:18
how incredibly excited
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sa te befasuar
04:20
the U.S. military was
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ishin ushtria e Shteteve te Bashkuara
04:22
by the news of the Norden bombsight.
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nga lajmi i makinerise se bombave te Norden.
04:25
It was like manna from heaven.
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Ishte si ushqim shpirteror nga parajsa
04:27
Here was an army
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Ketu ishte nje ushtri
04:29
that had just had experience in the First World War,
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e cila posa ka pasuar pervoje ne Luften e pare Boterore,
04:31
where millions of men
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ku me miliona burra
04:33
fought each other in the trenches,
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u rrahen ne mes me vet ne hendeke,
04:35
getting nowhere, making no progress,
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duke mos shkuar askund, duke mos bere asnje perparim,
04:37
and here someone had come up with a device
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dhe ketu dikush erdhi me nje paisje
04:41
that allowed them to fly up in the skies
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qe u'a lejoj atyre te fluturojne lart ne qiell
04:43
high above enemy territory
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lart mbi territorin e armikut
04:45
and destroy whatever they wanted
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dhe te shaktrrojne cka do qe deshen
04:47
with pinpoint accuracy.
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me perpikmeri te sigurt.
04:49
And the U.S. military
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Dhe ushtria U.S
04:51
spends 1.5 billion dollars --
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shpenzon 1.5 bilion dollar--
04:53
billion dollars in 1940 dollars --
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bilion dollar ne 1940 dollar--
04:56
developing the Norden bombsight.
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per te zhvilluar makinerin e bmbave te Norden-it.
04:58
And to put that in perspective,
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Dhe per t'a vendosur ate ne perspektive,
05:01
the total cost of the Manhattan project
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cmimi total i projektit te Manhattan
05:03
was three billion dollars.
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ishte tre bilion dollar.
05:05
Half as much money was spent on this Norden bombsight
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Gjysma e ketyre parave ishte shpenzuar ne makineri bombave Norden
05:08
as was spent on the most famous military-industrial project
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pasiqe ishte shpenzuar ne projektin me te famshem te industrise ushtarake
05:12
of the modern era.
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te epokes se re.
05:14
And there were people, strategists, within the U.S. military
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Dhe aty kishte njerez, strateg, mbrenda ushtrise Shteteve te Bashkuara
05:17
who genuinely thought that this single device
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te cilet sinqerisht menduan qe vetem kjo paisje
05:19
was going to spell the difference
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do ta tregoj ndryshimin
05:21
between defeat and victory
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ndermjet disfates dhe fitores
05:23
when it came to the battle against the Nazis
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kur erdhi te lufta kunder Nazisteve
05:25
and against the Japanese.
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dhe kunder Japonezve.
05:27
And for Norden as well,
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Dhe per Norden gjithashtu,
05:29
this device had incredible moral importance,
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kjo paisje kishte rendesi jashtezakonisht morale
05:32
because Norden was a committed Christian.
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sepse Norden ishte nje Krishter i perkushtuar.
05:34
In fact, he would always get upset
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Ne fakt, ai gjithmone do te deshprohej
05:36
when people referred to the bombsight as his invention,
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kur njerezit i referoheshin vendit te makinerise se bombave si zbulim e tij,
05:39
because in his eyes,
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sepse sipas tij,
05:41
only God could invent things.
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vetem zoti mund te zbuloj gjera.
05:43
He was simple the instrument of God's will.
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Ai thjeshte ishte insturment i deshires se Zotit.
05:45
And what was God's will?
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Dhe cila ishte deshira e Zotit?
05:47
Well God's will was that the amount of suffering in any kind of war
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Mire deshira i Zotit qe sasia e vujatjes ne cdo lufte
05:50
be reduced to as small an amount as possible.
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te reduktohet ne sasi sa me te vogel qe eshte e mundshme.
05:53
And what did the Norden bombsight do?
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Dhe cka kane bene bmbat e Norden?
05:55
Well it allowed you to do that.
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Mire ju lejoj te beni ate.
05:57
It allowed you to bomb only those things
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Ju lejoj vetem te bombardoni vetem keto gjera
05:59
that you absolutely needed and wanted to bomb.
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qe ju apsolutisht patet nevoje dhe kerkkuat te bombardoni.
06:03
So in the years leading up to the Second World War,
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Keshtu ne vitet qe na shpein deri tek Lufta e Dyte Boterore,
06:06
the U.S. military buys 90,000
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ushtria e Shteteve te Bashkuara blejne 90.000
06:09
of these Norden bombsights
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te ketyre bombave te Norden
06:11
at a cost of $14,000 each --
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me cmim te 14.000$ per secilin --
06:13
again, in 1940 dollars, that's a lot of money.
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perseri , ne 1940 dollar, keto jane shume para.
06:16
And they trained 50,000 bombardiers on how to use them --
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Dhe ata i trajnuan 50.000 bombardues si t'i perdorin ato --
06:19
long extensive, months-long training sessions --
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gjate e gjere, muaj te tere te sesione trajunese--
06:23
because these things are essentially analog computers;
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sepse keto gjera jane thelebesisht jane komjuter analog;
06:25
they're not easy to use.
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ato nuk jane te lehta per t'u perdororur.
06:27
And they make everyone of those bombardiers take an oath,
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Dhe ata i bejne te gjithe bombarduesit te betohen,
06:30
to swear that if they're ever captured,
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te betohen se nese ndonjehere kapen
06:33
they will not divulge a single detail
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ata nuk do te zbuloj asnje detaj
06:35
of this particular device to the enemy,
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te kesaj paisje te vecante armikut,
06:37
because it's imperative the enemy not get their hands
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sepse eshte e domosdoshme armiku tr mos marr ne duar
06:40
on this absolutely essential piece of technology.
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kete pjeese esenciale te teknologjise.
06:42
And whenever the Norden bombsight is taken onto a plane,
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Dhe kurdo qe maiknneria e bombave Norden merret ne nje aeroplan,
06:45
it's escorted there by a series of armed guards.
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shoqerohet atje me nje grumbull rojesh te armatuara.
06:48
And it's carried in a box with a canvas shroud over it.
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Dhe bartet ne nje kuti me nje perde mbi te.
06:51
And the box is handcuffed to one of the guards.
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Dhe kutia eshte e prangosur ne nje nga rojet.
06:54
It's never allowed to be photographed.
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Kurre nuk eshte e lejuar te fotografohet.
06:56
And there's a little incendiary device inside of it,
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Dhe eshte nje paisje e vogel ndezese brenda saj,
06:59
so that, if the plane ever crashes, it will be destroyed
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pra qe, nese aeroplani ndonjehere perplaset, do te shkatrrohet
07:02
and there's no way the enemy can ever get their hands on it.
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dhe nuk ka shanca qe armiku t'i fus duart aty.
07:05
The Norden bombsight
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Makineria e Bombave Norden
07:07
is the Holy Grail.
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eshte Gral i Shenjte
07:10
So what happens during the Second World War?
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Pra cka ndodh gjate Luftes Se Dyte Boterore?
07:13
Well, it turns out it's not the Holy Grail.
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Mire, duket se nuk eshte Gral i Shenjte.
07:16
In practice, the Norden bombsight
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Ne praktike, makineria e bombave Norden
07:18
can drop a bomb into a pickle barrel at 20,000 ft.,
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mund te hedh nje bombe ne nje bucelle ne 20.000 ft.,
07:21
but that's under perfect conditions.
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por kjo eshte ne kushte perfekte.
07:23
And of course, in wartime,
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Dhe sigurisht, ne kohe lufte,
07:25
conditions aren't perfect.
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kushtet nuk jane perfekte.
07:27
First of all, it's really hard to use -- really hard to use.
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Se pari, eshte shume veshtire te perdoret-- shume veshtire te perdoret.
07:30
And not all of the people
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Dhe jo te gjithe njerezit
07:32
who are of those 50,000 men who are bombardiers
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te cilet jane 50.000 burra te cilet jane bombardues
07:34
have the ability to properly program an analog computer.
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kane aftesine qe ne menyre te drejte te programojne nje kompjuter analog.
07:38
Secondly, it breaks down a lot.
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Se dyti, ajo prishet shume.
07:40
It's full of all kinds of gyroscopes and pulleys
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Eshte e mbushur me te gjitha llojet e xhiroskopeve dhe pulexheva
07:42
and gadgets and ball-bearings,
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dhe paisjeve dhe koordiantave,
07:44
and they don't work as well as they ought to
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dhe ata nuk punojne ashtu si duhet
07:46
in the heat of battle.
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ne nxehtesin e betjes.
07:48
Thirdly, when Norden was making his calculations,
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Se treti, kur Norden ishte duke i bere kalkulime e tij,
07:51
he assumed that a plane would be flying
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ai pretendonte se ne aeroplan do te fluturonte
07:53
at a relatively slow speed at low altitudes.
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relativisht ne ne shoejtesi te ngadalshme ne lartesi te ulte.
07:56
Well in a real war, you can't do that;
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Mire ne nje lufte te vertete, ju nuk mund ta beni ate;
07:58
you'll get shot down.
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ju do te qelloheni.
08:00
So they started flying them at high altitudes at incredibly high speeds.
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Keshtu ata filluan te fluturonin ne lartesi te larte me shpejtesi teper te larte.
08:03
And the Norden bombsight doesn't work as well
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Dhe makineria e bombave nuk punon edhe aq mire
08:05
under those conditions.
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ne keto kushte.
08:07
But most of all,
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Por shumica rej tyre,
08:09
the Norden bombsight required the bombardier
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makineria e bombave Norden kerkon qe bombarduesi
08:11
to make visual contact with the target.
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te bene kontakt vizuel me objektivin.
08:14
But of course, what happens in real life?
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Por sigurisht, cka ndodh ne jeten e vertete?
08:16
There are clouds, right.
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Ka re, a po.
08:19
It needs cloudless sky to be really accurate.
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Ka nevoje per nje qiell te kthjellte qe te jete me te vertete i sigurt.
08:22
Well how many cloudless skies
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Mire sa qiell te kthjellte
08:24
do you think there were above Central Europe
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mendoni se ishin mbi Europen Qendrore
08:26
between 1940 and 1945?
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ne mes 1940 dhe 1945?
08:29
Not a lot.
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Jo aq shume.
08:31
And then to give you a sense
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Dhe pastaj per t'u a dhene juve nje ndjeje
08:33
of just how inaccurate the Norden bombsight was,
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se sa i pa sigurt makineria e bombave Norden ishte,
08:35
there was a famous case in 1944
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ishte nje rast i famshem ne 1944
08:37
where the Allies bombed a chemical plant in Leuna, Germany.
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ku aleatet bombarduan nje bime kemikale ne Leuna, Gjermani.
08:41
And the chemical plant comprised
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Dhe bima kemikale permbante
08:43
757 acres.
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757 akëra.
08:45
And over the course of 22 bombing missions,
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Dhe ne rrjedhen e misioneve 22 te bombardimeve,
08:48
the Allies dropped 85,000 bombs
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aleatet hudhen 85,000 bomba
08:53
on this 757 acre chemical plant,
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ne kete bime kemikale 757 aker,
08:57
using the Norden bombsight.
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duke perdorur makinerin e bombave Norden.
09:00
Well what percentage of those bombs
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Mire cfare perqindje e ketyre bombave
09:02
do you think actually landed
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mendoni qe u leshuan
09:04
inside the 700-acre perimeter of the plant?
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brenda perimetrit 700 akersh te bimes?
09:07
10 percent. 10 percent.
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10 perqind. 10 perqind.
09:10
And of those 10 percent that landed,
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Dhe prej ketyre 10 perqeindve qe u leshuan,
09:12
16 percent didn't even go off; they were duds.
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16 perqind nuk u shuan; ato ishin te paplasura.
09:15
The Leuna chemical plant,
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Bima kemikale Leuna,
09:17
after one of the most extensive bombings in the history of the war,
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njera nder bombardimet me te gjera ne historine e luftes
09:20
was up and running within weeks.
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ishte ne funksion mbrenda disa javeve.
09:23
And by the way, all those precautions
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Dhe me qe ra fjale, te gjitha keto parashikime
09:25
to keep the Norden bombsight out of the hands of the Nazis?
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per t'a mbajtur lmakinerin e bombave Norden larg duarve te Nazisteve?
09:28
Well it turns out
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Mire duket se
09:30
that Carl Norden, as a proper Swiss,
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Carl Norden, si nje zvicran i denje,
09:32
was very enamored of German engineers.
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ishte shume i dashuruar me inxhinieret Gjerman.
09:35
So in the 1930s, he hired a whole bunch of them,
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Keshtu qe ne vitetet 1930, ai punsoi nje grumbull te madh te tyre,
09:37
including a man named Hermann Long
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duke perfshire nje njeri me emrin Herman Long
09:39
who, in 1938,
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i cili, ne 1938,
09:41
gave a complete set of the plans for the Norden bombsight to the Nazis.
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dha nje set te kompletuar te planeve per makinerin e bombave Norden per Nazistet.
09:44
So they had their own Norden bombsight throughout the entire war --
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Pra ata paten makinerin e bombes Norden pergjate tere luftes --
09:47
which also, by the way, didn't work very well.
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e cila gjithashtu, me qe ra fjala, nuk ka punuar edhe aq mire.
09:50
(Laughter)
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(Buzeqeshje)
09:52
So why do we talk about the Norden bombsight?
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Pra pse po flasim per makinerine e bombes Norden?
09:55
Well because we live in an age
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Mire sepse ne jetojme ne nje moshe
09:57
where there are lots and lots
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ku ka shume e shume
09:59
of Norden bombsights.
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makineri te bombave Norden.
10:01
We live in a time where there are all kinds
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Ne jetojme ne nje kohe ku aty ka te gjitha llojet
10:03
of really, really smart people
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e njerezve te menqur
10:05
running around, saying that they've invented gadgets
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qe sillen per rreth, duke thene qe ata kane zbuluar paisjet
10:07
that will forever change our world.
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qe do te ndryshojne boten gjithmone.
10:09
They've invented websites that will allow people to be free.
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Ata kane zbuluar websitet qe u'a lejon njerezve te jene te lire.
10:12
They've invented some kind of this thing, or this thing, or this thing
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Ata kane zbuluar disa lloje si kjo gje, ose si kjo gje, ose si kjo gje
10:16
that will make our world forever better.
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qe do t'a beje boten tone pergjithmone me te mire.
10:19
If you go into the military,
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Nese shkoni ne ushtri
10:21
you'll find lots of Carl Nordens as well.
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ju do te gjeni shume Carl Norden gjithashtu.
10:23
If you go to the Pentagon, they will say,
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Nese shkoni ne Pentagon, ata do t'u thone,
10:25
"You know what, now we really can
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" E dini cka, tani me te vertete mund
10:27
put a bomb inside a pickle barrel
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te vendosmi nje bombe brenda nje buçelë
10:29
at 20,000 ft."
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te 20,000 ft."
10:31
And you know what, it's true; they actually can do that now.
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Dhe a e dini cka, eshte e vertete; ata faktikisht mund ta bejne ate tani.
10:34
But we need to be very clear
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Por ne duhet te jemi shume te qarte
10:36
about how little that means.
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per sa pak ajo ka vlere.
10:39
In the Iraq War, at the beginning of the first Iraq War,
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Ne luften e Irakut, ne fillim te luftes se pare ne Irak,
10:42
the U.S. military, the air force,
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ushtria e Shteteve Bashkuara, forca ajrore,
10:44
sent two squadrons of F-15E Fighter Eagles
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i dergoj 2 skuadrone te F-15E Fighter Eagles
10:47
to the Iraqi desert
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ne shkretiren Irakut
10:49
equipped with these five million dollar cameras
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te pajisura me keto kamera pese milion dollarshe
10:51
that allowed them to see the entire desert floor.
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qe u'a lejoj atyre te shohin shkretiren ne tersi.
10:54
And their mission was to find and to destroy --
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The misioni i tyre ishte te gjejne dhe te shkatrojne--
10:57
remember the Scud missile launchers,
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mos harroni te leshoni raketat Scud
10:59
those surface-to-air missiles
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keto raketa toke-ajer
11:01
that the Iraqis were launching at the Israelis?
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qe Irakianet po u'a leshonin Izraeliteve?
11:03
The mission of the two squadrons
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Misioni i dy skuadroneve
11:05
was to get rid of all the Scud missile launchers.
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ishte te largonin te gjitha raketat e leshuara Scud.
11:08
And so they flew missions day and night,
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Dhe keshtu ata misionet fluturan dite e nate,
11:10
and they dropped thousands of bombs,
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dhe ata hudhen mijera bomba,
11:12
and they fired thousands of missiles
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dhe ata ndezen mijera raketa
11:15
in an attempt to get rid of this particular scourge.
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ne perpjekje te largojne kete kopan te vecante.
11:18
And after the war was over, there was an audit done --
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Dhe pasi perfundimit te luftes, ishte bere nje audit--
11:20
as the army always does, the air force always does --
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sic e bene ushtria gjithmone, forca ajrore gjithmone e bene--
11:22
and they asked the question:
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dhe ata e pyten pytjen:
11:24
how many Scuds did we actually destroy?
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sa Scud faktikisht i kemi shkaterruar?
11:26
You know what the answer was?
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Ju e dini cila ishte pergjigja?
11:28
Zero, not a single one.
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Zero, asnje edhe nje.
11:30
Now why is that?
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Tani pse eshte kjo?
11:32
Is it because their weapons weren't accurate?
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Eshte pershkak se arme e tyre nuk ishin te sigurta?
11:34
Oh no, they were brilliantly accurate.
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O jo, ato ishin shume te sigurta.
11:37
They could have destroyed this little thing right here
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Ata do te mund te shkaterronin kete gje te vogel ketu
11:39
from 25,000 ft.
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nga 25.000 ft.
11:41
The issue was they didn't know where the Scud launchers were.
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Qellimi ishte se ata nuk e dini ku ishin makinat e leshimit Scud.
11:45
The problem with bombs and pickle barrels
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Problemi me bomba dhe buçela
11:48
is not getting the bomb inside the pickle barrel,
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nuk eshte duke e futur bomben brenda buçeles,
11:50
it's knowing how to find the pickle barrel.
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eshte dituria se si te gjejme buçellen.
11:53
That's always been the harder problem
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Ky gjithmone ka qene problem i veeshtire
11:55
when it comes to fighting wars.
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kur vije tek beteja te luftrave.
11:57
Or take the battle in Afghanistan.
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Ose merre betejen ne Afganistan.
12:00
What is the signature weapon
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Cila eshte fima e armes
12:02
of the CIA's war in Northwest Pakistan?
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e luftes CIA ne veriperendim te Paksitanit?
12:04
It's the drone. What is the drone?
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Eshte njeri qe rri kot. Cka eshte njeriu qe rri kot?
12:07
Well it is the grandson of the Norden Mark 15 bombsight.
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Mire eshte sternipi i Norden Mark kmaikneri bombave 15.
12:11
It is this weapon of devastating accuracy and precision.
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Eshte kjo arma e saktesise shakteruese dhe precezitetit.
12:15
And over the course of the last six years
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Dhe pergjate rrjedhes te gjashte mujorshit te fundit
12:17
in Northwest Pakistan,
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ne veriperendim te Pakistanit,
12:20
the CIA has flown hundreds of drone missiles,
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CIA ka fluturruan me qindra raketa koti,
12:23
and it's used those drones
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dhe ka perdorur keto gjera te kota
12:25
to kill 2,000 suspected
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per te vrare 2.000
12:27
Pakistani and Taliban militants.
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militantet te dyshuar te Pakistanit dhe Talibanit.
12:31
Now what is the accuracy of those drones?
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Tani cila eshte saktesisa e ketyre gjerave koti?
12:34
Well it's extraordinary.
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Mire eshte e jashtezakonshme.
12:36
We think we're now at 95 percent accuracy
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Ne mendojme se ne jemi tanite sajte 95 perqind
12:39
when it comes to drone strikes.
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kur vije puna tek sulmet e kota.
12:41
95 percent of the people we kill need to be killed, right?
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95 perqind e njerezve qe ne kemi vrare duhet te vrahen, a po?
12:44
That is one of the most extraordinary records
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Ky eshte njeri nder rekordet me te jashtezakonshme
12:46
in the history of modern warfare.
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ne historine e luftrave moderne.
12:48
But do you know what the crucial thing is?
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Por a e dini cila eshte gjera kruciale>
12:50
In that exact same period
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Ne ate periudhe te njejte te sakte
12:52
that we've been using these drones
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qe ne ishim duke perdorur keto gjera koti
12:54
with devastating accuracy,
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m saktesi shakterruese,
12:56
the number of attacks, of suicide attacks and terrorist attacks,
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numri i sulmeve, te sulmeve vetvrases dhe sulmeve terroriste,
12:59
against American forces in Afghanistan
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kunder forcave Amerikane ne Afganistan
13:01
has increased tenfold.
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eshte rritur dhejtefishite.
13:04
As we have gotten more and more efficient
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Pasi ne jemi bere me shume e me shume efikas
13:06
in killing them,
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ne mbytjen e tyre,
13:08
they have become angrier and angrier
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ata u bene nervoz e me nervoz
13:11
and more and more motivated to kill us.
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dhe shume me shume te motivuar per te na vrare neve.
13:14
I have not described to you a success story.
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Une nuk ju kam pershkruar nje histori te sukseseshme
13:17
I've described to you
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Une ju kam pershkruar
13:19
the opposite of a success story.
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te kundertes se nje historie te sukseshme
13:21
And this is the problem
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Dhe ky eshte problemi
13:23
with our infatuation with the things we make.
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me pasionet tona me gjerat qe ne bejme.
13:25
We think the things we make can solve our problems,
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Ne mendojme gjerat qe ne bejme mund te zgjidhin problemet tona,
13:28
but our problems are much more complex than that.
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por problemt tona jane shsume me shume komplekse se jo
13:31
The issue isn't the accuracy of the bombs you have,
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Qellimi nuk eshte siguria e bombave qe ju keni,
13:34
it's how you use the bombs you have,
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eshte si i perdorni bombat qe i keni,
13:36
and more importantly,
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dhe me e rendesishmja,
13:38
whether you ought to use bombs at all.
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nese ju duhet te perdorni bomba.
13:42
There's a postscript
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Eshte nje poshteshenim
13:44
to the Norden story
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ne storien Norden
13:46
of Carl Norden and his fabulous bombsight.
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te Carl Norden dhe maikinerise se tij te mrekullueshme.
13:49
And that is, on August 6th, 1945,
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Dhe kjo eshte, me 6 Gusht, 1945,
13:52
a B-29 bomber called the Enola Gay
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nje bombardues B-29 e quajti Enola Gay
13:55
flew over Japan
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fluturan mbi Japoni
13:57
and, using a Norden bombsight,
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dhe, duke perdorur nje makineri bombave Norden,
13:59
dropped a very large thermonuclear device
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gjuajti nje paisje te madhe termonukleare
14:02
on the city of Hiroshima.
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ne qytetin Hirmoshima.
14:05
And as was typical with the Norden bombsight,
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Dhe pasi qe ishte tipike me makinerin Norden,
14:08
the bomb actually missed its target by 800 ft.
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bomba faktikisht humbi objektivin nga 800 ft.
14:11
But of course, it didn't matter.
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Por sigurisht, nuk kishte nevoje.
14:14
And that's the greatest irony of all
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Dhe kjo ishte ironia me e madhe nga te gjitha
14:16
when it comes to the Norden bombsight.
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kur vije tek makineria Norden.
14:19
the air force's 1.5 billion dollar bombsight
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forcat ajrore 1.5bilion dollar te mainerise
14:23
was used to drop its three billion dollar bomb,
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ishe perdorur per te hedhur tre bilion dollaret e bombes,
14:27
which didn't need a bombsight at all.
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te cilat nuk paten nevoje per makineri te bombave.
14:30
Meanwhile, back in New York,
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Perderisa, ne New York,
14:32
no one told Carl Norden
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askush nuk i tregoi Carl Norden
14:34
that his bombsight was used over Hiroshima.
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qe makineria e tij ishte perdorur mbi Hiroshima.
14:37
He was a committed Christian.
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Ai ishte nje Krishter i perkushtuar
14:39
He thought he had designed something
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Ai mendonte se kishte dizejnuar dicka
14:41
that would reduce the toll of suffering in war.
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qe do te mund te zvogelonte vuajtjen ne lufte.
14:44
It would have broken his heart.
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Ajo do t'ja thente zemren.
14:47
(Applause)
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(Duartroktije)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Malcolm Gladwell - WriterDetective of fads and emerging subcultures, chronicler of jobs-you-never-knew-existed, Malcolm Gladwell's work is toppling the popular understanding of bias, crime, food, marketing, race, consumers and intelligence.
Why you should listen
Malcolm Gladwell searches for the counterintuitive in what we all take to be the mundane: cookies, sneakers, pasta sauce. A New Yorker staff writer since 1996, he visits obscure laboratories and infomercial set kitchens as often as the hangouts of freelance cool-hunters -- a sort of pop-R&D gumshoe -- and for that has become a star lecturer and bestselling author.
Sparkling with curiosity, undaunted by difficult research (yet an eloquent, accessible writer), his work uncovers truths hidden in strange data. His always-delightful blog tackles topics from serial killers to steroids in sports, while provocative recent work in the New Yorker sheds new light on the Flynn effect -- the decades-spanning rise in I.Q. scores.
Gladwell has written four books. The Tipping Point, which began as a New Yorker piece, applies the principles of epidemiology to crime (and sneaker sales), while Blink examines the unconscious processes that allow the mind to "thin slice" reality -- and make decisions in the blink of an eye. His third book, Outliers, questions the inevitabilities of success and identifies the relation of success to nature versus nurture. The newest work, What the Dog Saw and Other Adventures, is an anthology of his New Yorker contributions.
He says: "There is more going on beneath the surface than we think, and more going on in little, finite moments of time than we would guess."
Malcolm Gladwell | Speaker | TED.com