TEDGlobal 2011
Malcolm Gladwell: The strange tale of the Norden bombsight
Malcolm Gladwell: Čudna priča o Nordenovom nišanu za bombardiranje
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Veliki pripovjedač Malcolm Gladwell pripovjeda o Nordenovom nišanu za bombardiranje, revolucionarnom dijelu tehnologije drugog svjetskog rata, s neočekivanim ishodom.
Malcolm Gladwell - Writer
Detective of fads and emerging subcultures, chronicler of jobs-you-never-knew-existed, Malcolm Gladwell's work is toppling the popular understanding of bias, crime, food, marketing, race, consumers and intelligence. Full bio
Detective of fads and emerging subcultures, chronicler of jobs-you-never-knew-existed, Malcolm Gladwell's work is toppling the popular understanding of bias, crime, food, marketing, race, consumers and intelligence. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
00:17
It's a real pleasure to be here.
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Pravo je zadovoljstvo biti ovdje.
00:19
I last did a TEDTalk
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Posljednji put sam držao TED govor
00:21
I think about seven years ago or so.
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mislim prije nekih sedam godina.
00:25
I talked about spaghetti sauce.
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Pričao sam o umaku za špagete.
00:28
And so many people, I guess, watch those videos.
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I toliko mnogo ljudi, pretpostavljam, gleda te videe.
00:31
People have been coming up to me ever since
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Ljudi su mi prilazili od tada
00:33
to ask me questions about spaghetti sauce,
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da bi me pitali pitanja o umaku za špagete,
00:35
which is a wonderful thing in the short term --
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što je predivna stvar u kratkom roku --
00:38
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
00:40
but it's proven to be less than ideal
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ali ispalo je ustvari manje idealno
00:42
over seven years.
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kroz sedam godina.
00:44
And so I though I would come
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I tako sam pomislio da dođem
00:46
and try and put spaghetti sauce behind me.
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i probam se riješiti umaka za špagete.
00:49
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
00:51
The theme of this morning's session is Things We Make.
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Tema ove jutarnje sesije je Things We Make (Stvari Koje Pravimo).
00:54
And so I thought I would tell a story
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I tako pomislih da ispričam priču
00:56
about someone
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o nekome
00:58
who made one of the most precious objects
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tko je napravio jedan od najvrjednijih predmeta
01:00
of his era.
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svojega doba.
01:02
And the man's name is Carl Norden.
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I njegovo ime je Carl Norden.
01:05
Carl Norden was born in 1880.
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Carl Norden je rođen 1880.godine
01:07
And he was Swiss.
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I bio je Švicarac.
01:09
And of course, the Swiss can be divided
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I naravno, Švicarci se mogu podijeliti
01:11
into two general categories:
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u dvije glavne kategorije:
01:13
those who make small, exquisite,
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oni koji prave sitne, sjajne,
01:15
expensive objects
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skupe predmete
01:17
and those who handle the money
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i one koji se bave novcem
01:19
of those who buy small, exquisite,
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onih koji kupuju sitne, sjajne,
01:22
expensive objects.
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skupe predmete.
01:24
And Carl Norden is very firmly in the former camp.
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I Carl Norden stoji vrlo čvrsto u prvoj ekipi.
01:27
He's an engineer.
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On je inženjer.
01:29
He goes to the Federal Polytech in Zurich.
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Studira na Federal Polytech u Zurichu.
01:32
In fact, one of his classmates is a young man named Lenin
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Dapače, jedan od njegovih kolega je mladi momak zvan Lenin
01:35
who would go on
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koji će kasnije
01:37
to break small, expensive, exquisite objects.
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razbijati sitne, skupe, sjajne predmete.
01:41
And he's a Swiss engineer, Carl.
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I on je švicarski inženjer, Carl.
01:44
And I mean that in its fullest sense of the word.
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I mislim to u najširem smislu riječi.
01:47
He wears three-piece suits;
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On nosi trodjelna odijela;
01:49
and he has a very, very small, important mustache;
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i ima vrlo, vrlo mali, važni brk;
01:54
and he is domineering
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i dominantan je
01:56
and narcissistic
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i narcisoidan
01:58
and driven
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i gonjen
02:00
and has an extraordinary ego;
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i ima ogroman ego;
02:02
and he works 16-hour days;
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i radi 16 sati dnevno;
02:05
and he has very strong feelings about alternating current;
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i ima vrlo snažne osjećaje o promjenjivoj struji;
02:08
and he feels like a suntan is a sign of moral weakness;
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i misli da je sunčana preplanulost znak slabog morala;
02:12
and he drinks lots of coffee;
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i pije mnogo kave;
02:14
and he does his best work
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i najbolje radi
02:16
sitting in his mother's kitchen in Zurich for hours
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sjedeći satima u majčinoj kuhinji u Zurichu
02:18
in complete silence
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u potpunoj tišini
02:20
with nothing but a slide rule.
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s ničim osim šiberom (logaritmarom).
02:22
In any case,
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Uglavnom,
02:24
Carl Norden emigrates to the United States
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Carl Norden emigrira u SAD
02:27
just before the First World War
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taman pred Prvi svjetski rat
02:29
and sets up shop on Lafayette Street
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i otvara dućan u ulici Lafayette
02:31
in downtown Manhattan.
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u centru Manhattana.
02:33
And he becomes obsessed with the question
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I postaje opsjednut pitanjem
02:35
of how to drop bombs from an airplane.
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kako baciti bombu iz aviona.
02:38
Now if you think about it,
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Ako malo promislite,
02:40
in the age before GPS and radar,
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u doba prije GPS-a i radara,
02:43
that was obviously a really difficult problem.
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to je očito bio doista težak problem.
02:45
It's a complicated physics problem.
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To je kompliciran problem iz fizike.
02:47
You've got a plane that's thousands of feet up in the air,
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Imate avion koji je tisućama stopa visoko u zraku,
02:50
going at hundreds of miles an hour,
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koji ide stotinama milja na sat,
02:52
and you're trying to drop an object, a bomb,
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i pokušavate baciti predmet, bombu,
02:55
towards some stationary target
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prema nekoj nepokretnoj meti
02:57
in the face of all kinds of winds and cloud cover
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dok vas sputavaju svakojaki vjetrovi i oblaci
03:00
and all kinds of other impediments.
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te svakakve druge vrste smetnji.
03:02
And all sorts of people,
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I razni ljudi,
03:04
moving up to the First World War and between the wars,
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do Prvog svjetskog rata i između ratova,
03:06
tried to solve this problem,
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su pokušavali riješiti ovaj problem,
03:08
and nearly everybody came up short.
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i skoro svi su bili neuspješni.
03:10
The bombsights that were available
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Nišani za bombardiranje koji su bili dostupni
03:12
were incredibly crude.
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su bili strašno nerazvijeni.
03:14
But Carl Norden is really the one who cracks the code.
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Ali Carl Norden je bio taj koji je doista uspio probiti led.
03:17
And he comes up with this incredibly complicated device.
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I osmisli on taj nevjerojatno kompliciran uređaj
03:20
It weighs about 50 lbs.
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koji teži otprilike 23 kg,
03:22
It's called the Norden Mark 15 bombsight.
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zvan Norden Mark 15 nišan za bombe.
03:26
And it has all kinds of levers and ball-bearings
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I ima svakakve vrste poluga i kugličnih ležajeva
03:28
and gadgets and gauges.
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i sprava i mjerila.
03:31
And he makes this complicated thing.
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I on napravi ovu kompliciranu stvar,
03:34
And what he allows people to do
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i on pomogne bombarderima
03:36
is he makes the bombardier take this particular object,
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da uzmu ovaj konkretan predmet,
03:40
visually sight the target,
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ugledaju metu,
03:42
because they're in the Plexiglas cone of the bomber,
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pošto su u bombarderovom kokpitu od Plexiglasa,
03:46
and then they plug in the altitude of the plane,
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i unesu visinu aviona,
03:49
the speed of the plane, the speed of the wind
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brzinu aviona, brzinu vjetra
03:52
and the coordinates
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i koordinate
03:54
of the target.
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zadane mete.
03:56
And the bombsight will tell him when to drop the bomb.
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I nišan će mu reći kad da ispusti bombu.
04:00
And as Norden famously says,
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I kao što je Norden slavno rekao,
04:03
"Before that bombsight came along,
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"Prije nego je postojao taj nišan,
04:05
bombs would routinely miss their target
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bombe su rutinski promašivale svoje ciljeve
04:07
by a mile or more."
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za milju ili više."
04:09
But he said, with the Mark 15 Norden bombsight,
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"Ali", rekao je, "sa Mark 15 Norden nišanom za bombardiranje,
04:12
he could drop a bomb into a pickle barrel
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mogao je pogoditi bombom u bačvu kiselih krastavaca
04:14
at 20,000 ft.
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sa 20,000 stopa". (~6000 metara)
04:16
Now I cannot tell you
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I ne mogu vam reći
04:18
how incredibly excited
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koliko je bila uzbuđena
04:20
the U.S. military was
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američka vojska
04:22
by the news of the Norden bombsight.
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otkrićem Nordenovog nišana.
04:25
It was like manna from heaven.
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To je bilo kao manna s nebesa.
04:27
Here was an army
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Uzmite vojsku
04:29
that had just had experience in the First World War,
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koja je upravo iskusila Prvi svjetski rat,
04:31
where millions of men
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gdje su se milijuni ljudi
04:33
fought each other in the trenches,
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borili u rovovima,
04:35
getting nowhere, making no progress,
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ne mičući se, bez ikakvog napretka,
04:37
and here someone had come up with a device
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i sad naiđe netko tko je osmislio uređaj
04:41
that allowed them to fly up in the skies
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koji im daje da lete s visoka,
04:43
high above enemy territory
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visoko iznad neprijateljskog teritorija
04:45
and destroy whatever they wanted
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i razore što god požele
04:47
with pinpoint accuracy.
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s kirurškom preciznošću.
04:49
And the U.S. military
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I tako je američka vojska
04:51
spends 1.5 billion dollars --
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potrošila 1,5 milijardi dolara --
04:53
billion dollars in 1940 dollars --
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milijarde dolara po tečaju iz 1940-ih --
04:56
developing the Norden bombsight.
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razvijajući Nordenov nišan.
04:58
And to put that in perspective,
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I da to stavimo u perspektivu,
05:01
the total cost of the Manhattan project
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ukupna cijena Manhattan projekta
05:03
was three billion dollars.
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je bila tri milijarde dolara.
05:05
Half as much money was spent on this Norden bombsight
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Pola tolike svote je uloženo na ovaj Nordenov ciljnik
05:08
as was spent on the most famous military-industrial project
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kao što je potrošeno u najpoznatiji vojno-industrijski projekt
05:12
of the modern era.
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modernog doba.
05:14
And there were people, strategists, within the U.S. military
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I bili su ljudi, stratezi, unutar američke vojske
05:17
who genuinely thought that this single device
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koji su doista mislili da će ovaj jedan uređaj
05:19
was going to spell the difference
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prevagnuti
05:21
between defeat and victory
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između gubitka i pobjede
05:23
when it came to the battle against the Nazis
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kad dođe vrijeme za borbu protiv Nacista
05:25
and against the Japanese.
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i protiv Japanaca.
05:27
And for Norden as well,
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I za Nordena također,
05:29
this device had incredible moral importance,
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ovaj uređaj je imao nevjerojatnu moralnu važnost,
05:32
because Norden was a committed Christian.
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jer Norden je bio predani kršćanin.
05:34
In fact, he would always get upset
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Dapače, uvijek bi se ljutio
05:36
when people referred to the bombsight as his invention,
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kad bi ljudi spominjali ciljnik kao njegov izum,
05:39
because in his eyes,
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jer u njegovim očima,
05:41
only God could invent things.
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samo Bog je izumitelj stvari.
05:43
He was simple the instrument of God's will.
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On je jednostavno bio instrument Božje volje.
05:45
And what was God's will?
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A što je bila Božja volja?
05:47
Well God's will was that the amount of suffering in any kind of war
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Pa Božja volja je bila da se količina patnje u svakom ratu
05:50
be reduced to as small an amount as possible.
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svede na minimalnu moguću.
05:53
And what did the Norden bombsight do?
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A što je Nordenov ciljnik radio?
05:55
Well it allowed you to do that.
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Pa omogućio je upravo to.
05:57
It allowed you to bomb only those things
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Dozvoljava da bombardirate samo one stvari
05:59
that you absolutely needed and wanted to bomb.
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koje apsolutno trebate i želite bombardirati.
06:03
So in the years leading up to the Second World War,
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I tako u nadolazećim godinama prema Drugom svjetskom ratu,
06:06
the U.S. military buys 90,000
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američka vojska kupi 90.000
06:09
of these Norden bombsights
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tih Nordenovih nišana
06:11
at a cost of $14,000 each --
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po cijeni of 14.000 dolara po komadu --
06:13
again, in 1940 dollars, that's a lot of money.
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ponavljam, u 1940-im dolarima, to je bilo mnogo novca.
06:16
And they trained 50,000 bombardiers on how to use them --
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I trenirali su 50.000 ratnih pilota kako ih koristiti --
06:19
long extensive, months-long training sessions --
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dugi, opsežni, mjesecima dugi treninzi --
06:23
because these things are essentially analog computers;
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jer su te stvari u osnovi analogna računala;
06:25
they're not easy to use.
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nisu laki za korištenje.
06:27
And they make everyone of those bombardiers take an oath,
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I svatko od njih mora položiti zakletvu,
06:30
to swear that if they're ever captured,
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da ako ih ikad uhvate,
06:33
they will not divulge a single detail
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da neće odati ni jedan detalj
06:35
of this particular device to the enemy,
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o ovom uređaju neprijatelju,
06:37
because it's imperative the enemy not get their hands
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jer je imperativ da neprijateljima ne padne u ruke
06:40
on this absolutely essential piece of technology.
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ovaj apsolutno ključni komad tehnologije.
06:42
And whenever the Norden bombsight is taken onto a plane,
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I kad god se Nordenov ciljnik unosi u avion,
06:45
it's escorted there by a series of armed guards.
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ide u pratnji naoružanih stražara.
06:48
And it's carried in a box with a canvas shroud over it.
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I nosi se u kutiji prekriven platnenom presvlakom.
06:51
And the box is handcuffed to one of the guards.
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I kutija je lisicama vezana za jednog od stražara.
06:54
It's never allowed to be photographed.
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Apsolutno ju je zabranjeno fotografirati.
06:56
And there's a little incendiary device inside of it,
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I unutar nišana je mala zapaljiva sprava,
06:59
so that, if the plane ever crashes, it will be destroyed
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koja osigurava da će nišan biti uništen ukoliko se avion ikada sruši
07:02
and there's no way the enemy can ever get their hands on it.
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i ne postoji nijedan način da se neprijatelj ikako domogne nišana.
07:05
The Norden bombsight
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Nordenov nišan
07:07
is the Holy Grail.
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je Sveti Gral.
07:10
So what happens during the Second World War?
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I što se dogodi tokom Drugog svjetskog rata?
07:13
Well, it turns out it's not the Holy Grail.
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E, pa ispostavi se da nije Sveti Gral.
07:16
In practice, the Norden bombsight
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U praksi, Nordenov nišan
07:18
can drop a bomb into a pickle barrel at 20,000 ft.,
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može ubaciti bombu u bačvu kiselih krastavaca sa 20.000 stopa,
07:21
but that's under perfect conditions.
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ali pod savršenim uvjetima.
07:23
And of course, in wartime,
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A u ratu,
07:25
conditions aren't perfect.
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uvijeti naravno nisu savršeni.
07:27
First of all, it's really hard to use -- really hard to use.
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Prije svega, vrlo ga je teško koristiti.
07:30
And not all of the people
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A nisu svi
07:32
who are of those 50,000 men who are bombardiers
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među tih 50.000 bombardera
07:34
have the ability to properly program an analog computer.
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znali valjano programirati analogno računalo.
07:38
Secondly, it breaks down a lot.
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Drugo, često se kvario.
07:40
It's full of all kinds of gyroscopes and pulleys
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Nišan je pun svakakvih zupčanika i kolotura
07:42
and gadgets and ball-bearings,
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i sprava i ležajeva,
07:44
and they don't work as well as they ought to
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koji ne funkcioniraju toliko dobro koliko bi trebali
07:46
in the heat of battle.
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u jeku bitke.
07:48
Thirdly, when Norden was making his calculations,
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Treće, kada je Norden vršio svoje računice,
07:51
he assumed that a plane would be flying
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pretpostavio je da će avion letjeti
07:53
at a relatively slow speed at low altitudes.
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na relativno niskoj brzini i visini.
07:56
Well in a real war, you can't do that;
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Ali u pravom ratu se to ne može;
07:58
you'll get shot down.
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neprijatelj će te oboriti.
08:00
So they started flying them at high altitudes at incredibly high speeds.
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Tako da su počeli letjeti na većim visinama i pri daleko višim brzinama.
08:03
And the Norden bombsight doesn't work as well
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A Nordenov nišan ne radi tako dobro
08:05
under those conditions.
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u takvim uvijetima.
08:07
But most of all,
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Ali najbitnije od svega,
08:09
the Norden bombsight required the bombardier
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Nordenov nišan je zahtijevao da bombarder
08:11
to make visual contact with the target.
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vidi direktno svoju metu.
08:14
But of course, what happens in real life?
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Ali naravno, što se dešava u pravom životu?
08:16
There are clouds, right.
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Bude oblačno, jel tako.
08:19
It needs cloudless sky to be really accurate.
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Potrebno je nebo bez oblaka da bi bili precizni.
08:22
Well how many cloudless skies
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E pa koliko dana bez naoblake
08:24
do you think there were above Central Europe
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mislite da je bilo u središnjoj Europi
08:26
between 1940 and 1945?
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između 1940 i 1945?
08:29
Not a lot.
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Ne mnogo.
08:31
And then to give you a sense
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I da vam dočaram
08:33
of just how inaccurate the Norden bombsight was,
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koliko je neprecizan bio Nordenov nišan,
08:35
there was a famous case in 1944
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poznat je slučaj iz 1944.
08:37
where the Allies bombed a chemical plant in Leuna, Germany.
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u kojem su Saveznici bombardirali kemijsku tvornicu u Leuni u Njemačkoj.
08:41
And the chemical plant comprised
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Kemijska tvornica se prostirala
08:43
757 acres.
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na 757 jutara zemlje.
08:45
And over the course of 22 bombing missions,
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I kroz 22 misije bombardiranja,
08:48
the Allies dropped 85,000 bombs
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Saveznici su bacili 85.000 bombi
08:53
on this 757 acre chemical plant,
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na tih 757 jutara kemijske tvornice,
08:57
using the Norden bombsight.
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koristeći Nordenov nišan.
09:00
Well what percentage of those bombs
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E pa koji postotak tih bombi
09:02
do you think actually landed
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mislite da je zapravo sletio
09:04
inside the 700-acre perimeter of the plant?
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unutar tog opsega od 700 jutara od tvornice?
09:07
10 percent. 10 percent.
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10 posto. 10 posto.
09:10
And of those 10 percent that landed,
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A od tih 10 posto bombi koje su sletjele,
09:12
16 percent didn't even go off; they were duds.
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16 posto nije eksplodiralo; bili su ćorci.
09:15
The Leuna chemical plant,
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Kemijska tvornica u Leuni,
09:17
after one of the most extensive bombings in the history of the war,
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nakon jedne od najintenzivnijih bombardiranja u povijesti rata,
09:20
was up and running within weeks.
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je bila opet u funkciji unutar nekoliko tjedana.
09:23
And by the way, all those precautions
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Usput, sve te mjere opreza
09:25
to keep the Norden bombsight out of the hands of the Nazis?
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da se spriječi da Nordenov nišan dospije u ruke Nacista?
09:28
Well it turns out
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E, pa ispalo je
09:30
that Carl Norden, as a proper Swiss,
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da je Carl Norden, kao pravi Švicarac,
09:32
was very enamored of German engineers.
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vrlo cijenio njemačke inženjere.
09:35
So in the 1930s, he hired a whole bunch of them,
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Stoga je u 1930-ima zaposlio hrpu njih,
09:37
including a man named Hermann Long
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među njima i čovjeka po imenu Hermann Long
09:39
who, in 1938,
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koji je 1938.
09:41
gave a complete set of the plans for the Norden bombsight to the Nazis.
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predao potpune nacrte Nordenovog nišana Nacistima.
09:44
So they had their own Norden bombsight throughout the entire war --
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Tako da su oni imali svoj Nordenov nišan kroz tijek cijelog rata --
09:47
which also, by the way, didn't work very well.
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koji, usput, također nije baš dobro funkcionirao.
09:50
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
09:52
So why do we talk about the Norden bombsight?
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I zašto pričamo o Nordenovom nišanu?
09:55
Well because we live in an age
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Pa zato što živimo u dobu
09:57
where there are lots and lots
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u kojem je mnogo, mnogo
09:59
of Norden bombsights.
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Nordenovih nišana.
10:01
We live in a time where there are all kinds
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Živimo u vremenu u kojem ima svakakvih
10:03
of really, really smart people
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vrlo, vrlo pametnih ljudi
10:05
running around, saying that they've invented gadgets
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koji trče okolo, govoreći kako su izmislili sprave
10:07
that will forever change our world.
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koje će zauvijek promijeniti svijet.
10:09
They've invented websites that will allow people to be free.
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Izmislili su website-ove koji dozvoljavaju ljudima da budu slobodni.
10:12
They've invented some kind of this thing, or this thing, or this thing
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Izmislili su neku vrstu ovoga ili onoga
10:16
that will make our world forever better.
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koje će naš svijet učiniti boljim zauvijek.
10:19
If you go into the military,
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Ako odete u vojsku,
10:21
you'll find lots of Carl Nordens as well.
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tamo ćete također naći mnogo Carl Nordena.
10:23
If you go to the Pentagon, they will say,
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Ako odete u Pentagon, čuti ćete,
10:25
"You know what, now we really can
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"Znate, mi sada stvarno možemo
10:27
put a bomb inside a pickle barrel
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baciti bombu u bačvu kiselih krastavaca
10:29
at 20,000 ft."
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s 20,000 stopa".
10:31
And you know what, it's true; they actually can do that now.
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I znate što, istina je; sada stvarno mogu to učiniti.
10:34
But we need to be very clear
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Ali moramo razjasniti
10:36
about how little that means.
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koliko malo to zapravo znači.
10:39
In the Iraq War, at the beginning of the first Iraq War,
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U iračkom ratu, na početku prvog iračkog rata,
10:42
the U.S. military, the air force,
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američka vojska, ratno zrakoplovstvo
10:44
sent two squadrons of F-15E Fighter Eagles
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je poslalo dvije eskadrile F-15E Fighter Eagle-a
10:47
to the Iraqi desert
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u iračku pustinju
10:49
equipped with these five million dollar cameras
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opremljene s kamerama vrijednim 5 milijuna dolara
10:51
that allowed them to see the entire desert floor.
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koje su im dozvoljavale da vide cijelo pustinjsko dno.
10:54
And their mission was to find and to destroy --
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I njihova misija je bila da nađu i unište --
10:57
remember the Scud missile launchers,
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sjećate se Scud bacaća raketa,
10:59
those surface-to-air missiles
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onih zemlja-zrak raketa
11:01
that the Iraqis were launching at the Israelis?
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koje su Iračani lansirali na Izraelce?
11:03
The mission of the two squadrons
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Misija te dvije eskadrile
11:05
was to get rid of all the Scud missile launchers.
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je bila da se riješe svih Scud bacača raketa.
11:08
And so they flew missions day and night,
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I tako su letjeli po pustinji danonoćno,
11:10
and they dropped thousands of bombs,
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bacajući tisuće bombi,
11:12
and they fired thousands of missiles
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i ispaljujući tisuće raketa
11:15
in an attempt to get rid of this particular scourge.
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u pokušaju da se riješe te pošasti.
11:18
And after the war was over, there was an audit done --
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I nakon što je rat završen, napravljena je revizija --
11:20
as the army always does, the air force always does --
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kako to vojska uvijek radi, zrakoplovstvo uvijek radi --
11:22
and they asked the question:
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i pitali su se slijedeće:
11:24
how many Scuds did we actually destroy?
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koliko Scud bacača smo zapravo uništili?
11:26
You know what the answer was?
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Znate koji je bio odgovor?
11:28
Zero, not a single one.
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Nula, niti jedan.
11:30
Now why is that?
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Zašto se to desilo?
11:32
Is it because their weapons weren't accurate?
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Je li zato što im oružje nije dovoljno precizno?
11:34
Oh no, they were brilliantly accurate.
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Ne, oružje je bilo briljantno.
11:37
They could have destroyed this little thing right here
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Mogli su naciljati ovu ovdje stvarčicu
11:39
from 25,000 ft.
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s 25.000 stopa.
11:41
The issue was they didn't know where the Scud launchers were.
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Problem je bio da nisu znali gdje se Scud bacači nalaze.
11:45
The problem with bombs and pickle barrels
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Problem s bombama i bačvama krastavaca
11:48
is not getting the bomb inside the pickle barrel,
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nije u tome da ubacite bombu u bačvu krastavaca,
11:50
it's knowing how to find the pickle barrel.
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nego da znate naći tu bačvu krastavaca.
11:53
That's always been the harder problem
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To je uvijek bio veći problem
11:55
when it comes to fighting wars.
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kod ratovanja.
11:57
Or take the battle in Afghanistan.
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Ili uzmite rat u Afganistanu.
12:00
What is the signature weapon
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Koje je glavno oružje
12:02
of the CIA's war in Northwest Pakistan?
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CIA-e u ratu u sjeverozapadnom Pakistanu?
12:04
It's the drone. What is the drone?
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Dron. Što je dron?
12:07
Well it is the grandson of the Norden Mark 15 bombsight.
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E pa to je unuk Nordenovog Mark 15 nišana.
12:11
It is this weapon of devastating accuracy and precision.
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To je oružje uništavajuće preciznosti i točnosti.
12:15
And over the course of the last six years
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I kroz zadnjih šest godina
12:17
in Northwest Pakistan,
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u sjeverozapadnom Pakistanu,
12:20
the CIA has flown hundreds of drone missiles,
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CIA je poslala stotine dron raketa,
12:23
and it's used those drones
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i koristila je te dronove
12:25
to kill 2,000 suspected
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kako bi ubila 2.000 osumnjičenih
12:27
Pakistani and Taliban militants.
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pakistanskih i talibanskih militanata.
12:31
Now what is the accuracy of those drones?
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I kakva je preciznost tih dronova?
12:34
Well it's extraordinary.
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O, pa nevjerojatna je.
12:36
We think we're now at 95 percent accuracy
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Mislimo kako smo sada na 95-postotnoj preciznosti
12:39
when it comes to drone strikes.
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kod dronovskih napada.
12:41
95 percent of the people we kill need to be killed, right?
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95 posto ljudi koje ubijemo trebaju biti ubijeni, jel tako?
12:44
That is one of the most extraordinary records
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To je jedan od najnevjerojatnijih rekorda
12:46
in the history of modern warfare.
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modernog ratovanja.
12:48
But do you know what the crucial thing is?
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Ali znate što je ključna stvar ovdje?
12:50
In that exact same period
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U tom istom periodu
12:52
that we've been using these drones
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u kojem koristimo te dronove
12:54
with devastating accuracy,
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s uništavajućom preciznošću,
12:56
the number of attacks, of suicide attacks and terrorist attacks,
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broj napada, samoubilačkih napada i terorističkih napada,
12:59
against American forces in Afghanistan
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protiv američkih snaga u Afganistanu
13:01
has increased tenfold.
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se udeseterostručio.
13:04
As we have gotten more and more efficient
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Kako smo mi postajali sve precizniji
13:06
in killing them,
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u ubijanju njih,
13:08
they have become angrier and angrier
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oni su postali sve bijesniji i bijesniji
13:11
and more and more motivated to kill us.
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i sve motiviraniji da ubiju nas.
13:14
I have not described to you a success story.
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Ja vam nisam opisao uspješnu priču.
13:17
I've described to you
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Ja sam vam opisao
13:19
the opposite of a success story.
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suprotnost uspješne priče.
13:21
And this is the problem
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I u tome leži problem
13:23
with our infatuation with the things we make.
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s našom zaluđenošću stvarima koje proizvodimo.
13:25
We think the things we make can solve our problems,
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Mi mislimo da nam ti proizvodi mogu riješiti probleme,
13:28
but our problems are much more complex than that.
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međutim naši problemi su kompliciraniji od toga.
13:31
The issue isn't the accuracy of the bombs you have,
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Problem nije u preciznosti bombi koje imamo,
13:34
it's how you use the bombs you have,
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nego u načinu na koji koristimo bombe koje imamo,
13:36
and more importantly,
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i još važnije,
13:38
whether you ought to use bombs at all.
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trebamo li uopće koristiti bombe.
13:42
There's a postscript
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Nordenova priča
13:44
to the Norden story
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ima postskriptum
13:46
of Carl Norden and his fabulous bombsight.
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o Carlu Nordenu i njegovom poznatom nišanu.
13:49
And that is, on August 6th, 1945,
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A to je da je 6. kolovoza 1945. godine,
13:52
a B-29 bomber called the Enola Gay
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B-29 bombarder avion zvan Enola Gay
13:55
flew over Japan
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preletio preko Japana
13:57
and, using a Norden bombsight,
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i, koristeći Nordenov nišan,
13:59
dropped a very large thermonuclear device
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bacio vrlo veliki termonuklearni uređaj
14:02
on the city of Hiroshima.
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na grad Hirošimu.
14:05
And as was typical with the Norden bombsight,
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I kako je bilo već tipično za Nordenov nišan,
14:08
the bomb actually missed its target by 800 ft.
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bomba je zapravo promašila metu za 800 stopa.
14:11
But of course, it didn't matter.
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Ali naravno, to nije bilo bitno.
14:14
And that's the greatest irony of all
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I najveća ironija od svega
14:16
when it comes to the Norden bombsight.
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kada dođe do Nordenovog nišana
14:19
the air force's 1.5 billion dollar bombsight
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je da je taj 1,5 milijardi dolara vrijedan nišan
14:23
was used to drop its three billion dollar bomb,
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korišten da baci tu tri milijarde dolara vrijednu bombu
14:27
which didn't need a bombsight at all.
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koja uopće nije trebala nišan.
14:30
Meanwhile, back in New York,
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U međuvremenu, nazad u New Yorku,
14:32
no one told Carl Norden
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nitko nije obavijestio Carla Nordena
14:34
that his bombsight was used over Hiroshima.
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da je njegov nišan korišten nad Hirošimom.
14:37
He was a committed Christian.
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On je bio predani kršćanin.
14:39
He thought he had designed something
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Mislio je da je osmislio nešto
14:41
that would reduce the toll of suffering in war.
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što će smanjiti količinu stradanja i patnje u ratu.
14:44
It would have broken his heart.
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To bi mu slomilo srce.
14:47
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Malcolm Gladwell - WriterDetective of fads and emerging subcultures, chronicler of jobs-you-never-knew-existed, Malcolm Gladwell's work is toppling the popular understanding of bias, crime, food, marketing, race, consumers and intelligence.
Why you should listen
Malcolm Gladwell searches for the counterintuitive in what we all take to be the mundane: cookies, sneakers, pasta sauce. A New Yorker staff writer since 1996, he visits obscure laboratories and infomercial set kitchens as often as the hangouts of freelance cool-hunters -- a sort of pop-R&D gumshoe -- and for that has become a star lecturer and bestselling author.
Sparkling with curiosity, undaunted by difficult research (yet an eloquent, accessible writer), his work uncovers truths hidden in strange data. His always-delightful blog tackles topics from serial killers to steroids in sports, while provocative recent work in the New Yorker sheds new light on the Flynn effect -- the decades-spanning rise in I.Q. scores.
Gladwell has written four books. The Tipping Point, which began as a New Yorker piece, applies the principles of epidemiology to crime (and sneaker sales), while Blink examines the unconscious processes that allow the mind to "thin slice" reality -- and make decisions in the blink of an eye. His third book, Outliers, questions the inevitabilities of success and identifies the relation of success to nature versus nurture. The newest work, What the Dog Saw and Other Adventures, is an anthology of his New Yorker contributions.
He says: "There is more going on beneath the surface than we think, and more going on in little, finite moments of time than we would guess."
Malcolm Gladwell | Speaker | TED.com