Graham Allison: Is war between China and the US inevitable?
Graham Allison: Apakah perang antara Cina dan AS bakal terjadi?
Graham Allison is a leading analyst of US national security and defense policy with a special interest in China, nuclear weapons and decision-making. Full bio
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atas kesempatan berbicara tentang
for the opportunity to talk about
of your professional lifetime,
dari kehidupan profesional Anda,
international challenge
sangat penting
for as far as the eye can see.
is the rise of China.
yaitu kebangkitan Cina.
risen so far so fast,
berkembang sejauh ini dengan sangat cepat,
of China's rise --
bangkitnya Cina --
this will cause the Unites States
Amerika Serikat
the principal architect and guardian.
dan pelaku utama.
historians now call an "American Century."
saat ini menyebutnya "Abad Amerika."
accustomed to their place
dengan posisinya
as the US -- or bigger --
-- atau lebih besar --
as an assault on who they are.
supaya sadar.
we're now seeing in this rivalry,
dalam persaingan ini,
on the larger map of history.
yang lebih besar.
threatened to displace a ruling power.
yang sedang berkuasa.
dengan perang.
to mark the 100th anniversary
rehat demi mengenang 100 tahun peringatan
that became so encompassing,
di mana-mana,
an entirely new category: world war.
kategori terbaru: perang dunia.
is a sophisticated audience,
on the impact of China's rise,
dampak dari bangkitnya Cina,
terhadap tatanan internasional
serta perdamaian.
over many years,
it's useful to take a short pause,
sebaiknya ada jeda sementara,
on the same page.
ungraded, of course.
bukan soal ujian tentunya.
on its march to the market.
perjalanannya ke pasar.
of China's one billion citizens
dari satu miliar rakyat Cina
on less than two dollars a day?
tidak lebih dari dua dolar sehari?
on less than two dollars a day.
kurang dari dua dolar sehari.
that within the next three years,
kurun waktu tiga tahun kemudian,
will have been raised up
taraf hidupnya
in our lifetime.
lebih sulit dipungkiri.
on any of the international league tables
dalam daftar kompetisi internasional
melampaui -- Amerika Serikat.
surpass -- the United States.
that will shape our world:
yang akan menentukan dunia:
sulit dibendung
immovable ruling US,
negara adikuasa AS,
the grandest collision in history.
dalam sejarah.
around this challenge,
tantangan ini,
to a great thinker,
seorang pemikir hebat,
consequential question.
sangat logis.
have trouble pronouncing it.
menyebutkannya.
two, three, together:
sama-sama:
of the Peloponnesian War,"
of the Peloponnesian War,"
2500 tahun yang lampau.
you can tweet your friends,
Anda bisa cuitkan ke teman-teman,
his name: Thucydides."
Thucydides."
that destroyed classical Greece,
Yunani kuno ini,
and the fear that this instilled in Sparta
kepanikan di Sparta
I coined several years ago,
yang saya buat beberapa tahun lalu,
dynamic that occurs
dinamika berbahaya yang terjadi
to displace a ruling power,
menggantikan yang sedang berkuasa,
or China today --
atau Cina saat ini --
or the US today.
atau Amerika Serikat kini.
of Thucydides's Trap in your head,
Jebakan Thucydides,
the news and noise of the day
berita dan kebisingan saat ini
sedang terjadi.
about our world today:
mengenai dunia kita sekarang ini:
in the footsteps of history?
of imagination and common sense
imajinasi dan akal sehat
persaingan ini
bakal menjadi malapetaka besar?
news story pops up for you
berita selanjutnya
or the US reacting like that,
atau seperti apa reaksi AS,
understanding of what's going on
permasalahan yang sedang terjadi
ke teman-temanmu.
the pyramid of poverty,
kemiskinan,
I think, put it best.
saya pikir, sangat jelas.
we haven't yet had time to be astonished."
kita pun belum sempat terkejut."
how astonished I should be,
seharusnya terkejut,
in my office in Cambridge
kantor saya di Cambridge
across the Charles River,
Sungai Charles,
and Harvard Business School.
dan Harvard Business School.
they were going to renovate this bridge,
mengatakan akan merenovasi jembatan ini,
it would take one more year.
when it's going to be finished.
three times over budget.
-- dengan tiga kali lipat anggaran.
that I drove across last month in Beijing.
di Beijing.
they wanted to renovate that bridge.
ingin merenovasi jembatan itu.
lanes of traffic.
dua kali lipat lebih banyak
to complete the project?
that couldn't happen in New York.
itu tak bisa terjadi di New York.
is a purpose-driven leader
ada pemimpin dengan motivasi-tujuan
and most competent leader
is Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Presiden Cina, Xi Jinping.
about what he wants.
apa yang diinginkannya.
president six years ago,
enam tahun lalu,
Donald Trump picked up a version of this.
sejak lama sebelum Donald Trump.
specific targets for specific dates:
target khusus sesuai rencana:
the dominant power
in 10 leading technologies,
di 10 teknologi unggulan
quantum computing.
the innovation leader
the 100th anniversary
peringatan ke-100
unambiguously number one,
an army that he calls "Fight and Win."
yang dia sebut "Bertarung dan Menang."
but as you can see,
tapi seperti Anda bisa lihat,
how fast our world is changing.
seberapa cepat dunia berputar.
yet even been invented.
of this rise of China most directly?
kebangkitan Cina secara langsung?
and stronger and richer,
dan makin kaya,
American positions and prerogatives.
posisi dan hak prerogatif Amerika.
like me; I'm from North Carolina --
seperti saya; saya dari Carolina Utara --
that's who we are.
brute facts are hard to ignore.
kenyataan yang terjadi sulit dipungkiri.
asked me to testify about this
minta saya membuktikan tentang hal ini
Persenjataan di Senat.
that you can see,
yang Anda bisa lihat,
of a seesaw on a playground,
papan jungkat-jungkit,
of their economy.
dengan standar ekonominya.
China was just half our size.
by 2024, it will be half again larger.
Cina bakal setengah lebih besar.
will be felt everywhere.
akan terasa di mana-mana.
trade conflict,
saat ini,
the number one trading partner
to our Greek historian.
pada ahli sejarah Yunani.
has reviewed the last 500 years of history
di Harvard
terakhir
kekuatan baru
dengan perang.
is that in very few of these
by either the rising power
kekuatan baru
a third party's provocation
untuk bereaksi,
they don't want to go.
yang mereka tidak inginkan.
of a second-level figure,
the Austro-Hungarian emperor
Kekaisaran Austro-Hungaria
all of Europe was at war.
semua negara Eropa terlibat perang.
planet Earth today.
dunia sekarang ini.
leading man for the ruling power
lebih cocok untuk negara adikuasa
power than Xi Jinping?
daripada Xi Jinping?
of more colorful provocateur
provokator yang lebih bersemangat
Kim Jong-Un.
to play his assigned part
untuk memainkan perannya masing-masing
with the most consequential question,
dengan pertanyaan sangat logis,
the gravest consequences
paling penting
the forces of history drive us to a war
kekuatan sejarah memaksa kita berperang
the imagination and courage
dan keberanian
in the 21st century,
a new form of great power relations?
format baru dari hubungan kekuatan besar?
pursuing passionately
dengan penuh semangat
and, indeed, to listen
dan, tentunya, mendengar
the relevant governments --
pemerintahan terkait --
of both the arts and business.
baik seni maupun bisnis.
saya sampaikan.
are increasingly aware
makin menyadari
nobody has a feasible plan
tak ada yang punya rencana bijak
that we need some ideas
kita butuh beberapa pemikiran
of conventional state graph --
or another space --
ke satu permintaan.
of the most creative minds on the planet,
pemikiran sangat kreatif,
the world we have,
dunia yang seharusnya
and as you reflect on it,
dan Anda pertimbangkan,
some bold ideas, actually some wild ideas,
tepatnya ide-ide liar,
a difference in this space.
di ruangan ini.
right after World War II.
tepat setelah Perang Dunia II
and Europeans and others,
dan negara lain yang luar biasa,
the world of culture and business,
tapi dari kalangan kebudayaan dan bisnis,
surge of imagination.
and what they created
to live our lives, all of our lives,
menikmati hidup, kehidupan kita,
than was ever seen before on the planet.
terjadi sebelumnya di muka bumi ini.
project that produced these results,
proyek yang membuahkan hasil ini,
policy establishment
Americans felt exhausted.
Amerika kelelahan.
an urgent domestic agenda.
how devastated Europe was
hancurnya Eropa
waktu itu,
to tax themselves
untuk membayar pajak
every year for four years
per tahun selama empat tahun
to help reconstruct these countries,
untuk bantuan rekonstruksi,
been killing Americans.
warga Amerika.
for peace and prosperity.
perdamaian dan kesejahteraan.
to do is do it again.
adalah melakukannya lagi.
of imagination, creativity,
imajinasi, kreativitas,
Santayana reminded us,
Santayana, ingatkan pada kita,
who refuse to study history
mempelajari sejarah
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Graham Allison - Political scientist, professorGraham Allison is a leading analyst of US national security and defense policy with a special interest in China, nuclear weapons and decision-making.
Why you should listen
Graham Allison is the Douglas Dillon Professor of Government at the Harvard Kennedy School and the best-selling author of Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap? Founding Dean of the Harvard Kennedy School, he has served as Assistant Secretary of Defense and advised the Secretaries of Defense under every president from Reagan to Obama.
Graham Allison | Speaker | TED.com