Graham Allison: Is war between China and the US inevitable?
格雷厄姆·艾利森: 中國和美國之間的戰爭是無可避免的?
Graham Allison is a leading analyst of US national security and defense policy with a special interest in China, nuclear weapons and decision-making. Full bio
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for the opportunity to talk about
of your professional lifetime,
最大的國際故事,
international challenge
世界將要面對的
for as far as the eye can see.
最重要的一個。
is the rise of China.
risen so far so fast,
如此快速崛起。
of China's rise --
中國崛起的影響——
this will cause the Unites States
the principal architect and guardian.
主要建築師和守護者。
historians now call an "American Century."
所謂的「美國世紀」。
accustomed to their place
他們在所有權勢等級中
as the US -- or bigger --
或更大——的這個想法,
as an assault on who they are.
we're now seeing in this rivalry,
所看見的層面來說,
on the larger map of history.
我們已經看到十六個案例,
threatened to displace a ruling power.
要取代正在統治的政權。
都是以戰爭收場。
to mark the 100th anniversary
戰爭結束一百週年
that became so encompassing,
這場戰爭涵蓋太廣了,
an entirely new category: world war.
一個全新的類別:世界大戰。
不再有任何槍響了,
is a sophisticated audience,
知識經驗,知道中國的崛起。
on the impact of China's rise,
中國崛起的影響,
over many years,
it's useful to take a short pause,
短暫地暫停一下來確保
on the same page.
是很有幫助的。
我暫停的方式是,
ungraded, of course.
當然,不算分的。
暫停,突襲測驗。
on its march to the market.
中國開始進軍市場。
of China's one billion citizens
當中有多少百分比
on less than two dollars a day?
掙扎著求生存?
on less than two dollars a day.
一天賺不到二美元。
你們猜多少?
that within the next three years,
在接下來的三年內,
will have been raised up
in our lifetime.
更是難以忽略。
on any of the international league tables
甚至沒有出現在任何國際聯盟中,
在某些地區,甚至超越美國。
surpass -- the United States.
that will shape our world:
會形塑我們的世界:
immovable ruling US,
只在原地踏步的美國前進,
the grandest collision in history.
歷史上最雄偉的撞擊。
around this challenge,
to a great thinker,
consequential question.
have trouble pronouncing it.
two, three, together:
一、二、三,一起唸。
of the Peloponnesian War,"
在希臘的戰爭。
you can tweet your friends,
你可以上推特告訴你的朋友:
his name: Thucydides."
怎麼發音:修西得底斯。」
that destroyed classical Greece,
很有名的句子:
and the fear that this instilled in Sparta
斯巴達的恐懼,
混合了驕傲、
I coined several years ago,
是我在幾年前創造出來的新詞,
dynamic that occurs
危險的動態,會出現的時候是
to displace a ruling power,
正在統治的政權時,
or China today --
或現今的中國——
or the US today.
或現今的美國。
of Thucydides's Trap in your head,
這個想法概念進到你的腦袋中,
the news and noise of the day
about our world today:
最必然的問題就是:
in the footsteps of history?
of imagination and common sense
會很慘烈的戰爭?
news story pops up for you
如果你碰到了下一個
or the US reacting like that,
或美國如何應對的報導時,
understanding of what's going on
the pyramid of poverty,
被翻轉的這個狀況時,
I think, put it best.
瓦茨拉夫哈維爾的說法是最棒的。
we haven't yet had time to be astonished."
我們都沒有時間吃驚。」
how astonished I should be,
我應該要有多吃驚,
in my office in Cambridge
across the Charles River,
它跨座在查爾斯河上,
and Harvard Business School.
和哈佛商學院之間。
they were going to renovate this bridge,
他們要重條這座橋,
it would take one more year.
when it's going to be finished.
three times over budget.
預算超支了三倍。
that I drove across last month in Beijing.
they wanted to renovate that bridge.
lanes of traffic.
to complete the project?
that couldn't happen in New York.
這在紐約是不可能發生的。
is a purpose-driven leader
and most competent leader
且最有能力的領導者,
is Chinese President Xi Jinping.
about what he wants.
president six years ago,
Donald Trump picked up a version of this.
到很久之後才採用它的一個版本。
specific targets for specific dates:
the dominant power
in 10 leading technologies,
quantum computing.
the innovation leader
the 100th anniversary
unambiguously number one,
an army that he calls "Fight and Win."
一支「能打勝仗」的軍隊。
but as you can see,
朝這些方針邁進的路了。
how fast our world is changing.
我們的世界改變有多快。
yet even been invented.
of this rise of China most directly?
誰感受到的衝擊最直接?
and stronger and richer,
American positions and prerogatives.
美國的地位和特權。
like me; I'm from North Carolina --
像我,我來自北卡羅萊納州——
that's who we are.
brute facts are hard to ignore.
殘酷的事實難以忽略。
asked me to testify about this
要求我為此作證,
that you can see,
你們可以看到,
of a seesaw on a playground,
翹翹板兩端的孩子,
of their economy.
China was just half our size.
只有我們的一半。
GDP 和我們的打平。
by 2024, it will be half again larger.
到了2024 年,
will be felt everywhere.
將會無所不在。
trade conflict,
the number one trading partner
to our Greek historian.
我們的希臘歷史學家。
陷阱案例檔案」
has reviewed the last 500 years of history
要取代正在統治的政權。
is that in very few of these
by either the rising power
或是統治政權發起戰爭的。
a third party's provocation
they don't want to go.
它們不想要去的地方。
的確,但那就是人生。
of a second-level figure,
the Austro-Hungarian emperor
他們把各方盟友都拉進來,
all of Europe was at war.
planet Earth today.
修西得底斯在看著地球。
leading man for the ruling power
power than Xi Jinping?
比習近平更恰當的領導?
of more colorful provocateur
to play his assigned part
要扮演他們被分派的角色,
with the most consequential question,
用最必然的問題來下結論,
the gravest consequences
the forces of history drive us to a war
歷史的力量將我們推向
the imagination and courage
我們的想像力和勇氣,
in the 21st century,
a new form of great power relations?
創造出偉大政權關係的新形式?
pursuing passionately
很熱切在追尋的議題。
and, indeed, to listen
相關政府的領袖
the relevant governments --
of both the arts and business.
不同位置的思想領袖。
are increasingly aware
nobody has a feasible plan
有一個可行的計畫
that we need some ideas
of conventional state graph --
or another space --
或另一個空間——
of the most creative minds on the planet,
如何管理我們現有的世界,
the world we have,
它應有的樣子。
and as you reflect on it,
且當你們在思考它時,
some bold ideas, actually some wild ideas,
一些狂野的想法,
a difference in this space.
有所不同的想法。
如果你們真的有,
right after World War II.
之後發生了什麼事。
and Europeans and others,
美國人、歐洲人,及其他人,
the world of culture and business,
還有來自文化和商業界的人,
surge of imagination.
and what they created
to live our lives, all of our lives,
我們的生活,所有人都能,
than was ever seen before on the planet.
project that produced these results,
policy establishment
Americans felt exhausted.
美國感到精疲力竭。
an urgent domestic agenda.
how devastated Europe was
歐洲有多麼身心交瘁,
to tax themselves
要向他們自己課稅,
every year for four years
to help reconstruct these countries,
協助重建這些國家,
been killing Americans.
一直在殺害美國人。
for peace and prosperity.
和平與繁榮的秩序。
to do is do it again.
再做一次這樣的事。
of imagination, creativity,
一波想像力、創意,
Santayana reminded us,
who refuse to study history
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Graham Allison - Political scientist, professorGraham Allison is a leading analyst of US national security and defense policy with a special interest in China, nuclear weapons and decision-making.
Why you should listen
Graham Allison is the Douglas Dillon Professor of Government at the Harvard Kennedy School and the best-selling author of Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap? Founding Dean of the Harvard Kennedy School, he has served as Assistant Secretary of Defense and advised the Secretaries of Defense under every president from Reagan to Obama.
Graham Allison | Speaker | TED.com