TED2012
Peter Diamandis: Abundance is our future
Piter Diamandis (Peter Diamandis): Izobilje je naša budućnost
Filmed:
Readability: 4.7
1,664,920 views
Na bini TED2012, Piter Diamandis brani optimizam govoreći da ćemo izumeti, uvesti novine i stvoriti načine kako bismo rešili izazove koji se gomilaju nad nama. "Ne kažem da nemamo svoj paket problema; svakako da imamo. Ali, u krajnjoj liniji, prebrodićemo ih."
Peter Diamandis - Space activist
Peter Diamandis runs the X Prize Foundation, which offers large cash incentive prizes to inventors who can solve grand challenges like space flight, low-cost mobile medical diagnostics and oil spill cleanup. He is the chair of Singularity University, which teaches executives and grad students about exponentially growing technologies. Full bio
Peter Diamandis runs the X Prize Foundation, which offers large cash incentive prizes to inventors who can solve grand challenges like space flight, low-cost mobile medical diagnostics and oil spill cleanup. He is the chair of Singularity University, which teaches executives and grad students about exponentially growing technologies. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
(Applause)
0
0
3000
(Aplauz)
00:18
(Video) Announcer: Threats, in the wake of Bin Laden's death, have spiked.
1
3000
3000
(Snimak) Pretnje, uoči smrti Bin Ladena, povećane.
00:21
Announcer Two: Famine in Somalia. Announcer Three: Police pepper spray.
2
6000
2000
Glad u Somaliji. Policija koristila suzavac.
00:23
Announcer Four: Vicious cartels. Announcer Five: Caustic cruise lines.
3
8000
2000
Zlokobni karteli. Kaustična krstarenja.
00:25
Announcer Six: Societal decay. Announcer Seven: 65 dead.
4
10000
3000
Propadanje društva. 65 osoba poginulo.
00:28
Announcer Eight: Tsunami warning. Announcer Nine: Cyberattacks.
5
13000
2000
Opasnost od cunamija. Sajber-napadi.
00:30
Multiple Announcers: Drug war. Mass destruction. Tornado.
6
15000
2000
Ratovi zbog droge. Masovno uništenje. Tornado.
00:32
Recession. Default. Doomsday. Egypt. Syria.
7
17000
2000
Recesija. Sudnji dan. Egipat. Sirija.
00:34
Crisis. Death. Disaster.
8
19000
2000
Kriza. Smrt. Nesreća.
00:36
Oh, my God.
9
21000
3000
O, Bože.
00:39
Peter Diamandis: So those are just a few of the clips
10
24000
2000
Ovo je samo nekoliko snimaka,
00:41
I collected over the last six months --
11
26000
2000
koje sam prikupio u proteklih 6 meseci -
00:43
could have easily been the last six days
12
28000
2000
Moglo je to da bude poslednjih 6 dana
00:45
or the last six years.
13
30000
2000
ili 6 godina.
00:47
The point is that the news media
14
32000
2000
Poenta je da novinarski mediji
00:49
preferentially feeds us negative stories
15
34000
3000
daju prednost širenju negativnih priča
00:52
because that's what our minds pay attention to.
16
37000
3000
zato što je to ono na šta naši umovi obraćaju pažnju.
00:55
And there's a very good reason for that.
17
40000
2000
A postoji i veoma dobar razlog za to.
00:57
Every second of every day,
18
42000
2000
Svake sekunde, svakog dana,
00:59
our senses bring in way too much data
19
44000
2000
naša čula primaju previše podataka
01:01
than we can possibly process in our brains.
20
46000
3000
koje možemo da obradimo u mozgu.
01:04
And because nothing is more important to us
21
49000
2000
A obzirom da nam je
01:06
than survival,
22
51000
2000
najvažniji naš opstanak,
01:08
the first stop of all of that data
23
53000
2000
prvo zaustavljanje tih podataka
01:10
is an ancient sliver of the temporal lobe
24
55000
2000
je u prastarom komadu
01:12
called the amygdala.
25
57000
2000
temporalnog režnja koji se zove amigdala.
01:14
Now the amygdala is our early warning detector,
26
59000
3000
Amigdala je naš rani detektor upozorenja
01:17
our danger detector.
27
62000
2000
naš detektor opasnosti.
01:19
It sorts and scours through all of the information
28
64000
3000
Ona razvrstava i prečišćava sve informacije
01:22
looking for anything in the environment that might harm us.
29
67000
3000
tražeći bilo šta u okruženju što bi nam moglo naškoditi.
01:25
So given a dozen news stories,
30
70000
2000
Tako da u slučaju 12 priča
01:27
we will preferentially look
31
72000
2000
mi ćemo pridati značaj
01:29
at the negative news.
32
74000
2000
negativnim vestima.
01:31
And that old newspaper saying,
33
76000
2000
A ona stara novinska izreka,
01:33
"If it bleeds it leads,"
34
78000
2000
"Ako krvari, tu su vesti,"
01:35
is very true.
35
80000
2000
je potpuno tačna.
01:37
So given all of our digital devices
36
82000
3000
Uzimajući u obzir sve digitalne uređaje
01:40
that are bringing all the negative news to us
37
85000
2000
koji nam dopremaju sve negativne vesti
01:42
seven days a week, 24 hours a day,
38
87000
3000
7 dana u nedelji, 24 časa dnevno,
01:45
it's no wonder that we're pessimistic.
39
90000
2000
nije ni čudo što smo pesimistični.
01:47
It's no wonder that people think
40
92000
2000
Nije ni čudo što ljudi misle
01:49
that the world is getting worse.
41
94000
4000
da je svet sve gori.
01:53
But perhaps that's not the case.
42
98000
3000
Ali možda to i nije tačno.
01:56
Perhaps instead,
43
101000
2000
Možda su zapravo,
01:58
it's the distortions brought to us
44
103000
2000
to iskrivljene slike
02:00
of what's really going on.
45
105000
3000
onoga što se zapravo dešava.
02:03
Perhaps the tremendous progress we've made
46
108000
2000
Možda se ogromni napredak koji smo
02:05
over the last century
47
110000
2000
napravili tokom prošlog veka
02:07
by a series of forces
48
112000
2000
koristeći se serijom sila
02:09
are, in fact, accelerating to a point
49
114000
3000
zapravo ubrzava do tačke
02:12
that we have the potential in the next three decades
50
117000
3000
da imamo potencijal da u naredne 3 decenije
02:15
to create a world of abundance.
51
120000
3000
stvorimo svet izobilja.
02:18
Now I'm not saying
52
123000
2000
Ne kažem ja
02:20
we don't have our set of problems --
53
125000
2000
da nemamo svoj paket problema,
02:22
climate crisis, species extinction,
54
127000
2000
klimatske krize, izumiranje vrsta,
02:24
water and energy shortage -- we surely do.
55
129000
3000
manjak vode i energije - svakako da imamo.
02:27
And as humans, we are far better
56
132000
2000
A pošto smo ljudi, dobro nam
02:29
at seeing the problems way in advance,
57
134000
3000
ide predviđanje problema
02:32
but ultimately we knock them down.
58
137000
4000
ali ih na kraju, prebrodimo.
02:36
So let's look
59
141000
2000
Pogledajmo stoga
02:38
at what this last century has been
60
143000
2000
o čemu je protekli vek bio,
02:40
to see where we're going.
61
145000
2000
kako bismo videli kuda idemo.
02:42
Over the last hundred years,
62
147000
2000
U proteklih 100 godina
02:44
the average human lifespan has more than doubled,
63
149000
3000
prosečna dužina života se više od dva puta uvećala
02:47
average per capita income adjusted for inflation
64
152000
3000
prosečna primanja po glavi prilagođena inflaciji
02:50
around the world has tripled.
65
155000
2000
širom sveta su se utrostručila.
02:52
Childhood mortality
66
157000
2000
Mortalitet kod dece
02:54
has come down a factor of 10.
67
159000
2000
se smanjio za faktor od 10.
02:56
Add to that the cost of food, electricity,
68
161000
2000
Dodajte na to cenu hrane, struje,
02:58
transportation, communication
69
163000
2000
prevoza, komunikacije
03:00
have dropped 10 to 1,000-fold.
70
165000
4000
koje su pale od 10 do 1000 puta.
03:04
Steve Pinker has showed us
71
169000
2000
Stiv Pinker nam je pokazao
03:06
that, in fact, we're living during the most peaceful time ever
72
171000
3000
da, zapravo, mi živimo u najmirnijem dobu ikada
03:09
in human history.
73
174000
2000
u istoriji čovečanstva.
03:11
And Charles Kenny
74
176000
2000
A Čarls Keni, da je svetska pismenost
03:13
that global literacy has gone from 25 percent to over 80 percent
75
178000
3000
povećana sa 25% na preko 80%
03:16
in the last 130 years.
76
181000
3000
u proteklih 130 godina.
03:19
We truly are living in an extraordinary time.
77
184000
4000
Mi zaista živimo u izuzetnom vremenu.
03:23
And many people forget this.
78
188000
2000
A mnogo ljudi to zaboravlja.
03:25
And we keep setting our expectations higher and higher.
79
190000
3000
I postavljamo sve veća i veća očekivanja.
03:28
In fact, we redefine what poverty means.
80
193000
3000
Mi ponovo definišemo značenje siromaštva.
03:31
Think of this, in America today,
81
196000
2000
Posmatrajte ovako, danas u Americi,
03:33
the majority of people under the poverty line
82
198000
3000
većina ljudi koja živi ispod granice siromaštva
03:36
still have electricity, water, toilets, refrigerators,
83
201000
3000
ima struju, vodu, toalete, frižidere,
03:39
television, mobile phones,
84
204000
2000
televiziju, mobilne telefone,
03:41
air conditioning and cars.
85
206000
3000
klima uređaje i automobile.
03:44
The wealthiest robber barons of the last century, the emperors on this planet,
86
209000
3000
Najbogatiji baroni prošlog veka, vladari na ovoj planeti
03:47
could have never dreamed of such luxuries.
87
212000
3000
nisu mogli ni da sanjaju o takvom luksuzu.
03:53
Underpinning much of this
88
218000
3000
Ono što je temelj većine toga
03:56
is technology,
89
221000
2000
je tehnologija,
03:58
and of late,
90
223000
2000
i u skorije vreme,
04:00
exponentially growing technologies.
91
225000
2000
tehnologije koje eksponencijalno rastu.
04:02
My good friend Ray Kurzweil
92
227000
2000
Moj dobar prijatelj Rej Kurcvel
04:04
showed that any tool that becomes an information technology
93
229000
3000
pokazao je da bilo koje sredstvo koje postane informaciona tehnologija
04:07
jumps on this curve, on Moore's Law,
94
232000
3000
skače na ovoj skali, Murovom zakonu,
04:10
and experiences price performance doubling
95
235000
2000
i doživljava dupliranje odnosa
04:12
every 12 to 24 months.
96
237000
3000
cene i performansi na svakih 12 do 24 meseci.
04:15
That's why the cellphone in your pocket
97
240000
2000
Zato je moblini telefon u vašem džepu
04:17
is literally a million times cheaper and a thousand times faster
98
242000
2000
bukvalno milion puta jeftiniji
04:19
than a supercomputer of the '70s.
99
244000
2000
i hiljadu puta brži od superkompjutera iz kasnih 70ih.
04:21
Now look at this curve.
100
246000
2000
Pogledajte ovu skalu.
04:23
This is Moore's Law over the last hundred years.
101
248000
2000
Ovo je Murov zakon u proteklih 100 godina.
04:25
I want you to notice two things from this curve.
102
250000
2000
Želim da uočite dve stvari na ovoj skali.
04:27
Number one, how smooth it is --
103
252000
4000
Prvo, koliko je blaga,
04:31
through good time and bad time, war time and peace time,
104
256000
3000
kroz dobra i loša vremena, ratove i mir,
04:34
recession, depression and boom time.
105
259000
3000
recesiju, depresiju i tokom procvata.
04:37
This is the result of faster computers
106
262000
2000
Ovo je rezultat bržih kompjutera
04:39
being used to build faster computers.
107
264000
3000
koji se koririste kako bi se napravili brži kompjuteri.
04:42
It doesn't slow for any of our grand challenges.
108
267000
4000
Ne usporava se ni zbog kojih velikih izazova.
04:46
And also, even though it's plotted
109
271000
2000
Takođe, iako je je izdeljena
04:48
on a log curve on the left,
110
273000
2000
na skali sa leve strane,
04:50
it's curving upwards.
111
275000
2000
penje se.
04:52
The rate at which the technology is getting faster
112
277000
2000
Brzina kojom se tehnologija ubrzava
04:54
is itself getting faster.
113
279000
3000
se sama po sebi povećava.
04:57
And on this curve, riding on Moore's Law,
114
282000
3000
A na ovoj skali koja prati Murov zakon
05:00
are a set of extraordinarily powerful technologies
115
285000
3000
se nalaze izuzetno moćne tehnologije
05:03
available to all of us.
116
288000
2000
koje su nam svima dostupne.
05:05
Cloud computing,
117
290000
2000
Klaud kompjuting
05:07
what my friends at Autodesk call infinite computing;
118
292000
2000
ono što moji prijatelji u Autodesku nazivaju kompjuting
05:09
sensors and networks; robotics;
119
294000
3000
bez granica, senzori i mreže, robotika
05:12
3D printing, which is the ability to democratize and distribute
120
297000
3000
3D štampa, što je mogućnost da se demokratizuje i raširi
05:15
personalized production around the planet;
121
300000
2000
lična proizvodnja širom planete,
05:17
synthetic biology;
122
302000
2000
sintetička biologija,
05:19
fuels, vaccines and foods;
123
304000
3000
goriva, vakcine i hrana,
05:22
digital medicine; nanomaterials; and A.I.
124
307000
3000
digitalna medicina, nanomaterijali i veštačka inteligencija.
05:25
I mean, how many of you saw the winning of Jeopardy
125
310000
3000
Koliko vas je gledalo kako IBM-ov robot
05:28
by IBM's Watson?
126
313000
2000
Votson pobeđuje u kvizu "Opasnost"?
05:30
I mean, that was epic.
127
315000
3000
To je bilo sjajno.
05:33
In fact, I scoured the headlines
128
318000
2000
Zapravo, pretraživao sam naslove,
05:35
looking for the best headline in a newspaper I could.
129
320000
2000
tražeći najbolji naslov u novinama
05:37
And I love this: "Watson Vanquishes Human Opponents."
130
322000
4000
i ovaj mi se dopao "Votson uništio ljudske protivnike."
05:42
Jeopardy's not an easy game.
131
327000
2000
"Opasnost" nije laka igra.
05:44
It's about the nuance of human language.
132
329000
3000
U pitanju su nijanse u ljudskom jeziku.
05:47
And imagine if you would
133
332000
2000
I zamislite, molim vas,
05:49
A.I.'s like this on the cloud
134
334000
2000
veštačku inteligenciju "u oblaku"
05:51
available to every person with a cellphone.
135
336000
3000
koja je dostupna svakom ko ima moblini telefon.
05:54
Four years ago here at TED,
136
339000
2000
Pre 4 godine, ovde na TEDu,
05:56
Ray Kurzweil and I started a new university
137
341000
2000
Rej Kurcvel i ja osnovali smo novi
05:58
called Singularity University.
138
343000
2000
univerzitet - Univerzitet jednistvenosti.
06:00
And we teach our students all of these technologies,
139
345000
3000
Učimo studente o svim ovim tehnologijama,
06:03
and particularly how they can be used
140
348000
2000
a naročito o tome kako se mogu koristiti
06:05
to solve humanity's grand challenges.
141
350000
3000
u rešavanju najvećih izazova čovečanstva.
06:08
And every year we ask them
142
353000
2000
I svake godine im tražimo
06:10
to start a company or a product or a service
143
355000
3000
da osnuju kompaniju ili naprave proizvod ili uslugu
06:13
that can affect positively the lives of a billion people
144
358000
3000
koji mogu da pozitivno utiču na živote
06:16
within a decade.
145
361000
2000
milijardu ljudi u toku decenije.
06:18
Think about that, the fact that, literally, a group of students
146
363000
3000
Razmislite o tome, činjenici da, bukvalno, grupa studenata
06:21
can touch the lives of a billion people today.
147
366000
3000
danas, može da utiče na živote milijardu ljudi.
06:24
30 years ago that would have sounded ludicrous.
148
369000
2000
Pre 30 godina to bi zvučalo suludo.
06:26
Today we can point at dozens of companies
149
371000
3000
Danas možemo da navedemo desetine kompanija
06:29
that have done just that.
150
374000
2000
koje su upravo to uradile.
06:31
When I think about creating abundance,
151
376000
6000
Kada kažem - stvaranje izobilja - ne govorim o stvaranju
06:37
it's not about creating a life of luxury for everybody on this planet;
152
382000
3000
luksuznog života za svakog na ovoj planeti
06:40
it's about creating a life of possibility.
153
385000
3000
već o stvaranju života punog mogućnosti.
06:43
It is about taking that which was scarce
154
388000
3000
Govorim o tome da od onoga čega ima
06:46
and making it abundant.
155
391000
2000
malo napravimo izobilje.
06:48
You see, scarcity is contextual,
156
393000
3000
Pojam nestašice zavisi od konteksta,
06:51
and technology is a resource-liberating force.
157
396000
5000
a tehnologija je sila koja oslobađa od potrebe za resursima.
06:56
Let me give you an example.
158
401000
3000
Daću vam primer.
06:59
So this is a story of Napoleon III
159
404000
2000
Ovo je priča o Napoleonu III
07:01
in the mid-1800s.
160
406000
2000
srednjih 1800-ih.
07:03
He's the dude on the left.
161
408000
3000
On je dečko sa leve strane.
07:06
He invited over to dinner
162
411000
2000
Pozvao je na večeru
07:08
the king of Siam.
163
413000
2000
kralja Sijama.
07:10
All of Napoleon's troops
164
415000
2000
Sve Napoleonove čete
07:12
were fed with silver utensils,
165
417000
3000
jele su srebrnim priborom,
07:15
Napoleon himself with gold utensils.
166
420000
2000
Napoleon je jeo zlatnim priborom.
07:17
But the King of Siam,
167
422000
2000
Ali kralj Sijama -
07:19
he was fed with aluminum utensils.
168
424000
2000
on je jeo priborom od alumunijuma.
07:21
You see, aluminum
169
426000
2000
Aluminijum
07:23
was the most valuable metal on the planet,
170
428000
3000
je bio najdragoceniji metal na planeti,
07:26
worth more than gold and platinum.
171
431000
3000
vredniji od zlata i platine.
07:29
It's the reason that the tip of the Washington Monument
172
434000
3000
To je razlog zbog kojeg je vrh Vašington spomenika
07:32
is made of aluminum.
173
437000
2000
napravljen od aluminijuma.
07:34
You see, even though aluminum
174
439000
2000
Iako aluminijum čini
07:36
is 8.3 percent of the Earth by mass,
175
441000
3000
8.3% Zemljine mase,
07:39
it doesn't come as a pure metal.
176
444000
2000
ne spada u čiste metale.
07:41
It's all bound by oxygen and silicates.
177
446000
3000
Vezan je kiseonikom i silikatima.
07:44
But then the technology of electrolysis came along
178
449000
3000
Ali onda se pojavila tehnologija elektrolize
07:47
and literally made aluminum so cheap
179
452000
3000
i dovela do toga da aluminijum bude toliko jeftin,
07:50
that we use it with throw-away mentality.
180
455000
3000
da ga koristimo kao nešto što se baca svakodnevno.
07:53
So let's project this analogy going forward.
181
458000
4000
Hajde da projektujemo ovu analogiju unapred.
07:57
We think about energy scarcity.
182
462000
2000
Pomislimo na nestašicu energije.
07:59
Ladies and gentlemen,
183
464000
2000
Dame i gospodo, živimo
08:01
we are on a planet
184
466000
2000
na planeti
08:03
that is bathed with 5,000 times more energy
185
468000
3000
koja se zapljuskuje sa 5000 puta više energije
08:06
than we use in a year.
186
471000
3000
nego što mi potrošimo za godinu dana.
08:09
16 terawatts of energy hits the Earth's surface
187
474000
2000
16 teravati energije stiže
08:11
every 88 minutes.
188
476000
4000
do Zemljine površine svakih 88 minuta.
08:15
It's not about being scarce,
189
480000
2000
Dakle nije u pitanju nestašica,
08:17
it's about accessibility.
190
482000
2000
već pristupačnost.
08:19
And there's good news here.
191
484000
2000
A ima i dobrih vesti.
08:21
For the first time, this year
192
486000
2000
Po prvi put, ove godine
08:23
the cost of solar-generated electricity
193
488000
3000
cena struje dobijena solarnim putem
08:26
is 50 percent that of diesel-generated electricity in India --
194
491000
4000
je 50% jeftinija od one dobijene dizelom u Indiji -
08:30
8.8 rupees versus 17 rupees.
195
495000
3000
8.8 rupija naspram 17 rupija.
08:33
The cost of solar dropped 50 percent last year.
196
498000
2000
Cena solarne energije pala je za 50% prošle godine.
08:35
Last month, MIT put out a study
197
500000
2000
Prošlog meseca, Univerzitet u Masačusetsu
08:37
showing that by the end of this decade,
198
502000
2000
uradio je studiju koja pokazuje da će do kraja
08:39
in the sunny parts of the United States,
199
504000
2000
ove decenije u sunčanim krajevima SADa
08:41
solar electricity will be six cents a kilowatt hour
200
506000
2000
solarna struja koštati 6 centi
08:43
compared to 15 cents
201
508000
2000
po kilovat satu u poređenju sa 15 centi
08:45
as a national average.
202
510000
2000
što je nacionalni prosek.
08:47
And if we have abundant energy,
203
512000
3000
A ako imamo energije u izobilju,
08:50
we also have abundant water.
204
515000
3000
imamo i vodu u izobilju.
08:53
Now we talk about water wars.
205
518000
5000
Popričajmo o ratovima za vodu.
08:58
Do you remember
206
523000
2000
Da li se sećate kada je
09:00
when Carl Sagan turned the Voyager spacecraft
207
525000
2000
Karl Segan okrenuo "Vojadžer" letilicu
09:02
back towards the Earth,
208
527000
2000
nazad ka Zemlji,
09:04
in 1990 after it just passed Saturn?
209
529000
2000
90-ih nakon što su prošli Saturn?
09:06
He took a famous photo. What was it called?
210
531000
3000
Napravio je poznatu fotografiju. Kako se zvala?
09:09
"A Pale Blue Dot."
211
534000
2000
"Bleda plava tačka."
09:11
Because we live on a water planet.
212
536000
3000
Zato što živimo na vodenoj planeti.
09:14
We live on a planet 70 percent covered by water.
213
539000
3000
Živimo na planeti čijih je 70% pokriveno vodom.
09:17
Yes, 97.5 percent is saltwater,
214
542000
2000
Da, 97.5% toga
09:19
two percent is ice,
215
544000
2000
je slana voda, 2% je led,
09:21
and we fight over a half a percent of the water on this planet,
216
546000
3000
a mi se borimo oko pola procenta vode na planeti
09:24
but here too there is hope.
217
549000
2000
ali i tu ima nade.
09:26
And there is technology coming online,
218
551000
3000
Postoji tehologija koja se pojavljuje javno,
09:29
not 10, 20 years from now,
219
554000
2000
ne za 10, 20 godina od danas,
09:31
right now.
220
556000
2000
već danas.
09:33
There's nanotechnology coming on, nanomaterials.
221
558000
3000
Pojavljuje se nanotehnologija, nanomaterijali.
09:36
And the conversation I had with Dean Kamen this morning,
222
561000
3000
Razgovor koji sam obavio sa Dinom Kejmenom ovog jutra
09:39
one of the great DIY innovators,
223
564000
2000
jedanim od velikih inovatora "uradi sam",
09:41
I'd like to share with you -- he gave me permission to do so --
224
566000
3000
želeo bih da podelim sa vama - dao mi je dozvolu da to uradim -
09:44
his technology called Slingshot
225
569000
2000
njegova tehnologija, zvana "Slingshot" (Praćka)
09:46
that many of you may have heard of,
226
571000
2000
o kojoj su mnogi čuli,
09:48
it is the size of a small dorm room refrigerator.
227
573000
2000
je veličine malog, sobnog frižidera.
09:50
It's able to generate
228
575000
2000
U stanju je da proizvede
09:52
a thousand liters of clean drinking water a day
229
577000
2000
1000 litara čiste pijaće vode na dan
09:54
out of any source -- saltwater, polluted water, latrine --
230
579000
3000
iz bilo kojeg izvora - slane vode, zagađene vode, vode iz toaleta
09:57
at less than two cents a liter.
231
582000
3000
po ceni od manje od 2 centa po litri.
10:02
The chairman of Coca-Cola has just agreed
232
587000
2000
Direktor Koka-kole je pristao
10:04
to do a major test
233
589000
2000
da sprovede veliki test
10:06
of hundreds of units of this in the developing world.
234
591000
3000
u hiljadama fabrika u zemljama u razvoju.
10:09
And if that pans out,
235
594000
2000
I ukoliko se to proširi
10:11
which I have every confidence it will,
236
596000
2000
a verujem da hoće,
10:13
Coca-Cola will deploy this globally
237
598000
2000
Koka-kola će ovo postaviti
10:15
to 206 countries
238
600000
2000
u 206 zemalja
10:17
around the planet.
239
602000
2000
na planeti.
10:19
This is the kind of innovation, empowered by this technology,
240
604000
3000
Ovo je vrsta izuma, podstaknuta ovakvom
10:22
that exists today.
241
607000
4000
tehnologijom koja postoji danas.
10:26
And we've seen this in cellphones.
242
611000
2000
A videli smo ovo i sa moblinim telefonima.
10:28
My goodness, we're going to hit 70 percent penetration
243
613000
2000
Bože, do kraja 2013.
10:30
of cellphones in the developing world
244
615000
2000
će proboj mobilnih telefona
10:32
by the end of 2013.
245
617000
2000
stići 70% u zemljama u razvoju.
10:34
Think about it,
246
619000
2000
Razmislite o sledećem -
10:36
that a Masai warrior on a cellphone in the middle of Kenya
247
621000
3000
Masai ratnik koristeći mobilni u sred Kenije
10:39
has better mobile comm
248
624000
2000
ima bolju pokrivenost
10:41
than President Reagan did 25 years ago.
249
626000
3000
od predsednika Regana pre 25 godina.
10:44
And if they're on a smartphone on Google,
250
629000
2000
A ako su putem smart telefona na Guglu,
10:46
they've got access to more knowledge and information
251
631000
2000
imaju pristup više znanja i informacija
10:48
than President Clinton did 15 years ago.
252
633000
2000
nego predsenik Klinton pre 15 godina.
10:50
They're living in a world of information and communication abundance
253
635000
3000
Oni žive u svetu informacija i izobilju komunikacije
10:53
that no one could have ever predicted.
254
638000
3000
koje niko nije mogao da predvidi.
10:57
Better than that,
255
642000
2000
I još bolje od toga,
10:59
the things that you and I
256
644000
2000
stvari koje smo vi i ja
11:01
spent tens and hundreds of thousands of dollars for --
257
646000
2000
plaćali desetinama i stotinama hiljada dolara -
11:03
GPS, HD video and still images,
258
648000
3000
Dži-Pi-Es, HD snimci i fotografije
11:06
libraries of books and music,
259
651000
3000
biblioteke knjiga i muzike
11:09
medical diagnostic technology --
260
654000
2000
medicinska tehnologija dijagnostikovanja -
11:11
are now literally dematerializing and demonetizing
261
656000
3000
se sada bukvalno razgrađuju i gube cenu
11:14
into your cellphone.
262
659000
3000
u vašem mobilnom.
11:19
Probably the best part of it
263
664000
2000
Verovatno je najbolji deo toga
11:21
is what's coming down the pike in health.
264
666000
3000
ono što se priprema u zdravstvu.
11:24
Last month, I had the pleasure of announcing with Qualcomm Foundation
265
669000
4000
Prošlog meseca, imao sam zadovoljstvo da najavim sa Kvalkom fondacijom
11:28
something called the $10 million Qualcomm Tricorder X Prize.
266
673000
4000
nešto što se naziva Kvalkom Trikorder Iks Nagrada od 10 miliona dolara.
11:32
We're challenging teams around the world
267
677000
2000
Izazivamo timove širom sveta,
11:34
to basically combine these technologies
268
679000
2000
da praktično iskombinuju ove tehnologije
11:36
into a mobile device
269
681000
2000
u pokretni uređaj, kojem možete da se obratite,
11:38
that you can speak to, because it's got A.I.,
270
683000
2000
jer ima veštačku inteligenciju
11:40
you can cough on it, you can do a finger blood prick.
271
685000
3000
možete da kašljete u njega, može da vam uzme krv iz prsta.
11:43
And to win, it needs to be able to diagnose you better
272
688000
2000
I da bi pobedio, mora da bude u stanju da
11:45
than a team of board-certified doctors.
273
690000
4000
vam uspostavi dijagnozu bolje od tima doktora.
11:49
So literally, imagine this device
274
694000
3000
Zamislite ovu spravu usred
11:52
in the middle of the developing world where there are no doctors,
275
697000
3000
zemalja u razvoju gde nema lekara
11:55
25 percent of the disease burden
276
700000
2000
sa 25% svih bolesti na svetu
11:57
and 1.3 percent of the health care workers.
277
702000
3000
i 1.3% medicinskih radnika.
12:00
When this device sequences an RNA or DNA virus
278
705000
2000
Kada ovaj uređaj sekvencira
12:02
that it doesn't recognize,
279
707000
2000
RNK ili DNK virus koji ne može da prepozna
12:04
it calls the CDC
280
709000
2000
on poziva Centar za kontrolu bolesti
12:06
and prevents the pandemic from happening in the first place.
281
711000
3000
i sprečava razvoj pandemije u samom startu.
12:11
But here, here is the biggest force
282
716000
3000
A evo je i najjača sila
12:14
for bringing about a world of abundance.
283
719000
2000
kojom se sve dovodi u izobilje.
12:16
I call it the rising billion.
284
721000
3000
Ja to zovem - milijarda u usponu.
12:19
So the white lines here are population.
285
724000
3000
Bele linije predstavljaju stanovništvo.
12:22
We just passed the seven billion mark on Earth.
286
727000
3000
Upravo smo prešli 7 milijardi na Zemlji.
12:25
And by the way,
287
730000
2000
I najveća zaštita protiv iznenadnog
12:27
the biggest protection against a population explosion
288
732000
2000
rasta stanovništva
12:29
is making the world educated
289
734000
2000
je stvaranje sveta koji je
12:31
and healthy.
290
736000
3000
obrazovan i zdrav.
12:34
In 2010,
291
739000
2000
2010. imali smo
12:36
we had just short of two billion people
292
741000
2000
nešto manje od 2 milijarde ljudi
12:38
online, connected.
293
743000
2000
na Internetu - povezanih.
12:40
By 2020,
294
745000
2000
Do 2020.
12:42
that's going from two billion to five billion
295
747000
2000
to će skočiti sa 2 na 5
12:44
Internet users.
296
749000
2000
milijardi Internet korisnika.
12:46
Three billion new minds
297
751000
2000
3 milijarde novih umova
12:48
who have never been heard from before
298
753000
2000
koje još niko nije čuo
12:50
are connecting to the global conversation.
299
755000
4000
pridružuje se globalnom razgovoru.
12:54
What will these people want?
300
759000
2000
Šta će ovi ljudi želeti?
12:56
What will they consume? What will they desire?
301
761000
2000
Šta će trošiti? Šta će želeti?
12:58
And rather than having economic shutdown,
302
763000
2000
I umesto da imamo ekonomski pad,
13:00
we're about to have the biggest economic injection ever.
303
765000
3000
imaćemo najveći ekonomski rast ikada.
13:03
These people represent
304
768000
2000
Ovi ljudi predstavljaju
13:05
tens of trillions of dollars
305
770000
2000
desetine triliona dolara
13:07
injected into the global economy.
306
772000
3000
koji se ubacuju u globalnu ekonomiju.
13:10
And they will get healthier
307
775000
2000
A oni će biti zdraviji
13:12
by using the Tricorder,
308
777000
2000
korišćenjem Trikordera,
13:14
and they'll become better educated by using the Khan Academy,
309
779000
2000
i postati obrazovaniji koristeći
13:16
and by literally being able to use
310
781000
3000
Kan Akademiju i moći da koriste
13:19
3D printing and infinite computing
311
784000
3000
3D štampu i kompjuting bez granica
13:22
[become] more productive than ever before.
312
787000
3000
i postanu produktivniji nego ikada ranije.
13:25
So what could three billion rising,
313
790000
3000
Šta bi 3 milijarde
13:28
healthy, educated, productive members of humanity
314
793000
3000
zdravih, obrazovanih, produktivnih članova čovečanstva
13:31
bring to us?
315
796000
2000
moglo doneti nama?
13:33
How about a set of voices that have never been heard from before.
316
798000
3000
Možda gomilu glasova koji se ranije nisu čuli?
13:36
What about giving the oppressed,
317
801000
2000
To je davanje glasa
13:38
wherever they might be,
318
803000
2000
ugnjetavanima, gde god se oni nalazili
13:40
the voice to be heard and the voice to act
319
805000
2000
- glasa koji se može čuti i pravo
13:42
for the first time ever?
320
807000
3000
da nešto urade po prvi put.
13:45
What will these three billion people bring?
321
810000
3000
Šta će ovih 3 milijarde ljudi doneti?
13:48
What about contributions we can't even predict?
322
813000
3000
Kakve doprinose ne možemo ni da predvidimo?
13:51
The one thing I've learned at the X Prize
323
816000
2000
Jedna stvar koju sam naučio na Iks nagradi,
13:53
is that small teams
324
818000
2000
je da mali timovi,
13:55
driven by their passion with a clear focus
325
820000
3000
vođeni strašću i jasnim ciljem
13:58
can do extraordinary things,
326
823000
2000
mogu da postignu izuzetne stvari.
14:00
things that large corporations and governments
327
825000
2000
Stvari koje su velike korporacije i vlade
14:02
could only do in the past.
328
827000
3000
mogle da rade samo u prošlosti.
14:05
Let me share and close with a story
329
830000
2000
Podeliću sa vama priču koja me je
14:07
that really got me excited.
330
832000
3000
uzbudila i završiti.
14:10
There is a program that some of you might have heard of.
331
835000
2000
Postoji program o kojem ste možda čuli.
14:12
It's a game called Foldit.
332
837000
2000
Igrica sa nazivom "Foldit".
14:14
It came out of the University of Washington in Seattle.
333
839000
4000
Napravljena je na Univerzitetu Vašington, u Sijetlu.
14:18
And this is a game
334
843000
2000
Ovo je igrica gde pojedinci
14:20
where individuals can actually take a sequence of amino acids
335
845000
4000
mogu da uzmu deo aminokiseline
14:24
and figure out how the protein is going to fold.
336
849000
4000
i reše kako da slože protein.
14:28
And how it folds dictates its structure and its functionality.
337
853000
2000
A kako se on slaže govori o njegovoj strukturi i funkciji.
14:30
And it's very important for research in medicine.
338
855000
3000
I to je veoma važno za istraživanja u medicini.
14:33
And up until now, it's been a supercomputer problem.
339
858000
3000
Do sada to je bio problem za superkomjutere.
14:36
And this game has been played
340
861000
2000
Ovu igricu su igrali
14:38
by university professors and so forth.
341
863000
2000
profesori univerziteta i ostali.
14:40
And it's literally, hundreds of thousands of people
342
865000
3000
Stotine hiljada ljudi
14:43
came online and started playing it.
343
868000
2000
došlo je na mrežu i počelo da igra.
14:45
And it showed that, in fact, today,
344
870000
2000
I to je pokazalo da je, danas
14:47
the human pattern recognition machinery
345
872000
2000
ljudski mehanizam prepoznavanja šablona
14:49
is better at folding proteins than the best computers.
346
874000
3000
bolji u slučaju slaganja proteina od najboljih kompjutera.
14:52
And when these individuals went and looked
347
877000
2000
I kada su ovi pojedinci pogledali
14:54
at who was the best protein folder in the world,
348
879000
3000
ko je je najbolji slagač proteina na svetu
14:57
it wasn't an MIT professor,
349
882000
2000
to nije bio profesor na Masačusetsu tehnološkom institutu,
14:59
it wasn't a CalTech student,
350
884000
2000
nije bio student Kalifornijskog nstituta za tehnologiju,
15:01
it was a person from England, from Manchester,
351
886000
3000
bila je to osoba iz Engleske, iz Mančestera,
15:04
a woman who, during the day,
352
889000
4000
žena koja je preko dana
15:08
was an executive assistant at a rehab clinic
353
893000
3000
izvršni asistent u klinici za rehabilitaciju,
15:11
and, at night, was the world's best protein folder.
354
896000
4000
a preko noći najbolji slagač proteina.
15:16
Ladies and gentlemen,
355
901000
2000
Dame i gospodo,
15:18
what gives me tremendous confidence
356
903000
2000
ono što mi daje ogromnu veru
15:20
in the future
357
905000
4000
u budućnost
15:24
is the fact that we are now more empowered as individuals
358
909000
4000
je činjenica da sada imamo više moći kao pojedinci
15:28
to take on the grand challenges of this planet.
359
913000
3000
da se izborimo sa velikim izazovima ove planete.
15:31
We have the tools with this exponential technology.
360
916000
3000
Imamo oruđe sa ovom eksponencijalnom tehnologijom.
15:34
We have the passion of the DIY innovator.
361
919000
3000
Imamo strast "uradi sam" inovatora.
15:37
We have the capital of the techno-philanthropist.
362
922000
3000
Imamo kapital tehno-filantropa.
15:40
And we have three billion new minds
363
925000
2000
I imamo 3 milijarde novih umova
15:42
coming online to work with us
364
927000
2000
koji se povezuju kako bi radili sa nama
15:44
to solve the grand challenges,
365
929000
2000
u rešavanju velikih izazova,
15:46
to do that which we must do.
366
931000
4000
da uradimo ono što moramo da uradimo.
15:50
We are living into extraordinary decades ahead.
367
935000
2000
Pred nama su sjajne decenije.
15:52
Thank you.
368
937000
2000
Hvala vam.
15:54
(Applause)
369
939000
14000
(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Peter Diamandis - Space activistPeter Diamandis runs the X Prize Foundation, which offers large cash incentive prizes to inventors who can solve grand challenges like space flight, low-cost mobile medical diagnostics and oil spill cleanup. He is the chair of Singularity University, which teaches executives and grad students about exponentially growing technologies.
Why you should listen
Watch the live onstage debate with Paul Gilding that followed Peter Diamandis' 2012 TEDTalk >>
Peter Diamandis is the founder and chair of the X Prize Foundation, a nonprofit whose mission is simply "to bring about radical breakthroughs for the benefit of humanity." By offering a big cash prize for a specific accomplishment, the X Prize stimulates competition and excitement around some of the planet's most important goals. Diamandis is also co-founder and chairman of Singularity University which runs Exponential Technologies Executive and Graduate Student Programs.
Diamandis' background is in space exploration -- before the X Prize, he ran a company that studied low-cost launching technologies and Zero-G which offers the public the chance to train like an astronaut and experience weightlessness. But though the X Prize's first $10 million went to a space-themed challenge, Diamandis' goal now is to extend the prize into health care, social policy, education and many other fields that could use a dose of competitive innovation.
Peter Diamandis | Speaker | TED.com