TED2012
Peter Diamandis: Abundance is our future
彼得迪曼蒂斯: 我们的未来将会是富足的
Filmed:
Readability: 4.7
1,664,920 views
在TED2012的讲台上，彼得迪曼蒂斯解释保持乐观的理由－我们会发明，创新以及创造新的方法来解决目前面临的种种挑战。“我的意思不是说这些问题不存在，但最终，我们会消除它们。“
Peter Diamandis - Space activist
Peter Diamandis runs the X Prize Foundation, which offers large cash incentive prizes to inventors who can solve grand challenges like space flight, low-cost mobile medical diagnostics and oil spill cleanup. He is the chair of Singularity University, which teaches executives and grad students about exponentially growing technologies. Full bio
Peter Diamandis runs the X Prize Foundation, which offers large cash incentive prizes to inventors who can solve grand challenges like space flight, low-cost mobile medical diagnostics and oil spill cleanup. He is the chair of Singularity University, which teaches executives and grad students about exponentially growing technologies. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
(Applause)
0
0
3000
（鼓掌）
00:18
(Video) Announcer: Threats, in the wake of Bin Laden's death, have spiked.
1
3000
3000
（视频）播音员：在本拉登被击毙后，恐怖威胁数量激增。
00:21
Announcer Two: Famine in Somalia. Announcer Three: Police pepper spray.
2
6000
2000
播音员2：索马里出现饥荒。播音员3：警察使用胡椒喷雾。
00:23
Announcer Four: Vicious cartels. Announcer Five: Caustic cruise lines.
3
8000
2000
播音员4：凶恶的毒枭。播音员5：破裂的游轮。
00:25
Announcer Six: Societal decay. Announcer Seven: 65 dead.
4
10000
3000
播音员6：社会风气败坏。播音员7：65人死亡。
00:28
Announcer Eight: Tsunami warning. Announcer Nine: Cyberattacks.
5
13000
2000
播音员8：海啸警告。播音员9：网络攻击。
00:30
Multiple Announcers: Drug war. Mass destruction. Tornado.
6
15000
2000
多位播音员：毒品战争、大规模破坏、飓风、
00:32
Recession. Default. Doomsday. Egypt. Syria.
7
17000
2000
经济衰退、违约、末日、埃及、叙利亚、
00:34
Crisis. Death. Disaster.
8
19000
2000
危机、死亡、灾难。
00:36
Oh, my God.
9
21000
3000
哦我的天哪！
00:39
Peter Diamandis: So those are just a few of the clips
10
24000
2000
彼得迪曼蒂斯：这是我在过去6个月里
00:41
I collected over the last six months --
11
26000
2000
收集的一些视频。
00:43
could have easily been the last six days
12
28000
2000
如果是在6天，或者过去6年里
00:45
or the last six years.
13
30000
2000
也可以轻易收集到类似的片段。
00:47
The point is that the news media
14
32000
2000
重点是新闻媒体倾向于
00:49
preferentially feeds us negative stories
15
34000
3000
向我们灌输负面信息。
00:52
because that's what our minds pay attention to.
16
37000
3000
因为我们的大脑特别容易关注这些。
00:55
And there's a very good reason for that.
17
40000
2000
当然大脑这样做是有很重要的理由。
00:57
Every second of every day,
18
42000
2000
每时每刻，
00:59
our senses bring in way too much data
19
44000
2000
我们的“传感器”收集大量的信息
01:01
than we can possibly process in our brains.
20
46000
3000
多到我们的大脑处理不过来。
01:04
And because nothing is more important to us
21
49000
2000
而其中没有比与生存相关的信息
01:06
than survival,
22
51000
2000
更重要的。
01:08
the first stop of all of that data
23
53000
2000
所有信息输入的第一站就是
01:10
is an ancient sliver of the temporal lobe
24
55000
2000
颞叶上一个叫做大脑扁桃体的
01:12
called the amygdala.
25
57000
2000
非常原始的部分。
01:14
Now the amygdala is our early warning detector,
26
59000
3000
大脑扁桃体是我们的早期预警侦测器，
01:17
our danger detector.
27
62000
2000
危险探测仪。
01:19
It sorts and scours through all of the information
28
64000
3000
它将所有信息分类并仔细查阅，
01:22
looking for anything in the environment that might harm us.
29
67000
3000
探测环境中任何可能的威胁。
01:25
So given a dozen news stories,
30
70000
2000
所以每当我们打开报纸，
01:27
we will preferentially look
31
72000
2000
就会不自觉地阅读
01:29
at the negative news.
32
74000
2000
各种负面信息。
01:31
And that old newspaper saying,
33
76000
2000
那个过去有关报纸的说法：
01:33
"If it bleeds it leads,"
34
78000
2000
”流血事件必上头条。“
01:35
is very true.
35
80000
2000
其实是很有道理的。
01:37
So given all of our digital devices
36
82000
3000
而现在我们有各种数字化设备，
01:40
that are bringing all the negative news to us
37
85000
2000
无时无刻地向我们
01:42
seven days a week, 24 hours a day,
38
87000
3000
输送各种负面新闻。
01:45
it's no wonder that we're pessimistic.
39
90000
2000
难怪大家这么容易悲观。
01:47
It's no wonder that people think
40
92000
2000
难怪人们觉得
01:49
that the world is getting worse.
41
94000
4000
世界在倒退。
01:53
But perhaps that's not the case.
42
98000
3000
但事实或许
01:56
Perhaps instead,
43
101000
2000
并不是这样，
01:58
it's the distortions brought to us
44
103000
2000
我们所接受的信息
02:00
of what's really going on.
45
105000
3000
是被扭曲的。
02:03
Perhaps the tremendous progress we've made
46
108000
2000
我们的社会在上世纪
02:05
over the last century
47
110000
2000
一系列事件的影响下
02:07
by a series of forces
48
112000
2000
所经历的巨大的进步
02:09
are, in fact, accelerating to a point
49
114000
3000
正在不断加速，
02:12
that we have the potential in the next three decades
50
117000
3000
事实上，这样的速度令我们在未来三十年中，
02:15
to create a world of abundance.
51
120000
3000
拥有创造一个富足的世界的可能性。
02:18
Now I'm not saying
52
123000
2000
我并不是说
02:20
we don't have our set of problems --
53
125000
2000
这些问题不存在－
02:22
climate crisis, species extinction,
54
127000
2000
气候危机，物种灭绝，
02:24
water and energy shortage -- we surely do.
55
129000
3000
水资源和能源短缺的情况都确实发生了。
02:27
And as humans, we are far better
56
132000
2000
作为人类，我们太擅长对
02:29
at seeing the problems way in advance,
57
134000
3000
危机做出各种预估，
02:32
but ultimately we knock them down.
58
137000
4000
但最终我们会消除它们。
02:36
So let's look
59
141000
2000
让我们来回顾下
02:38
at what this last century has been
60
143000
2000
上个世纪发生了什么，
02:40
to see where we're going.
61
145000
2000
来了解我们正向着什么方向在前进。
02:42
Over the last hundred years,
62
147000
2000
过去的几百年里，
02:44
the average human lifespan has more than doubled,
63
149000
3000
人类的平均寿命增加了2倍以上，
02:47
average per capita income adjusted for inflation
64
152000
3000
经过通货膨胀调整计算，全世界的人均收入
02:50
around the world has tripled.
65
155000
2000
增加了3倍。
02:52
Childhood mortality
66
157000
2000
婴儿死亡率
02:54
has come down a factor of 10.
67
159000
2000
下降了10倍。
02:56
Add to that the cost of food, electricity,
68
161000
2000
食品、用电、交通、
02:58
transportation, communication
69
163000
2000
通信的成本
03:00
have dropped 10 to 1,000-fold.
70
165000
4000
下降了10倍到1000倍不等。
03:04
Steve Pinker has showed us
71
169000
2000
史蒂夫平克为我们指出,
03:06
that, in fact, we're living during the most peaceful time ever
72
171000
3000
我们正生活在人类历史上
03:09
in human history.
73
174000
2000
最和平的时代。
03:11
And Charles Kenny
74
176000
2000
还有查尔斯·肯尼提到
03:13
that global literacy has gone from 25 percent to over 80 percent
75
178000
3000
世界范围的识字率在过去的130年里从25％
03:16
in the last 130 years.
76
181000
3000
上升到了80％。
03:19
We truly are living in an extraordinary time.
77
184000
4000
我们确实生活在一个伟大的时代。
03:23
And many people forget this.
78
188000
2000
然而许多人忘记了这点。
03:25
And we keep setting our expectations higher and higher.
79
190000
3000
我们不断地把期望越定越高。
03:28
In fact, we redefine what poverty means.
80
193000
3000
事实上，我们已经更改了“贫穷”的涵义。
03:31
Think of this, in America today,
81
196000
2000
想一下，在今天的美国
03:33
the majority of people under the poverty line
82
198000
3000
大部分生活在贫困线下的人
03:36
still have electricity, water, toilets, refrigerators,
83
201000
3000
仍然拥有电力，饮用水，厕所，冰箱，
03:39
television, mobile phones,
84
204000
2000
电视，行动电话，
03:41
air conditioning and cars.
85
206000
3000
空调和汽车。
03:44
The wealthiest robber barons of the last century, the emperors on this planet,
86
209000
3000
上世纪最富有的强盗大亨，这个星球上的帝王们，
03:47
could have never dreamed of such luxuries.
87
212000
3000
永远都想象不到这样的奢侈生活。
03:53
Underpinning much of this
88
218000
3000
而这一切的基础
03:56
is technology,
89
221000
2000
是科技。
03:58
and of late,
90
223000
2000
和近代
04:00
exponentially growing technologies.
91
225000
2000
指数式增长的科技。
04:02
My good friend Ray Kurzweil
92
227000
2000
我的好朋友雷·库兹威尔
04:04
showed that any tool that becomes an information technology
93
229000
3000
展示了任何信息科技的工具
04:07
jumps on this curve, on Moore's Law,
94
232000
3000
都遵从这条曲线，即摩尔定律。
04:10
and experiences price performance doubling
95
235000
2000
并经历每12到24个月
04:12
every 12 to 24 months.
96
237000
3000
性价比翻一倍的增长。
04:15
That's why the cellphone in your pocket
97
240000
2000
这就是为什么你口袋里的行动电话
04:17
is literally a million times cheaper and a thousand times faster
98
242000
2000
相比70年代的超级电脑要便宜
04:19
than a supercomputer of the '70s.
99
244000
2000
100万倍，而且还要快上1000倍
04:21
Now look at this curve.
100
246000
2000
再看这个曲线。
04:23
This is Moore's Law over the last hundred years.
101
248000
2000
这是过去几百年里的摩尔定律。
04:25
I want you to notice two things from this curve.
102
250000
2000
我想要大家注意这曲线所体现的2件事
04:27
Number one, how smooth it is --
103
252000
4000
第一，它非常的平滑－
04:31
through good time and bad time, war time and peace time,
104
256000
3000
无论时代是好是坏，无论战争或和平，
04:34
recession, depression and boom time.
105
259000
3000
经济衰退或增长。
04:37
This is the result of faster computers
106
262000
2000
这是因为更快的电脑被用来制造
04:39
being used to build faster computers.
107
264000
3000
更更快的电脑所产生的结果。
04:42
It doesn't slow for any of our grand challenges.
108
267000
4000
它不会因为我们面临的巨大挑战所延缓。
04:46
And also, even though it's plotted
109
271000
2000
尽管在左边
04:48
on a log curve on the left,
110
273000
2000
呈现出对数曲线
04:50
it's curving upwards.
111
275000
2000
它也是仍然是向上弯曲。
04:52
The rate at which the technology is getting faster
112
277000
2000
科技前进加速的本身
04:54
is itself getting faster.
113
279000
3000
也在不断变快。
04:57
And on this curve, riding on Moore's Law,
114
282000
3000
在这摩尔定律的曲线上，
05:00
are a set of extraordinarily powerful technologies
115
285000
3000
是一系列对所有人都开放
05:03
available to all of us.
116
288000
2000
的强大的科技。
05:05
Cloud computing,
117
290000
2000
云计算，
05:07
what my friends at Autodesk call infinite computing;
118
292000
2000
我在Autodesk公司的朋友称之为无限计算；
05:09
sensors and networks; robotics;
119
294000
3000
传感器和网络，机器人；
05:12
3D printing, which is the ability to democratize and distribute
120
297000
3000
3D打印，让我们获得在全世界范围普及和部署
05:15
personalized production around the planet;
121
300000
2000
个性化生产的能力；
05:17
synthetic biology;
122
302000
2000
人造生命；
05:19
fuels, vaccines and foods;
123
304000
3000
带来新的燃料，疫苗和食物；
05:22
digital medicine; nanomaterials; and A.I.
124
307000
3000
数字化医药；纳米材料和人工智能。
05:25
I mean, how many of you saw the winning of Jeopardy
125
310000
3000
观众中多少人看到了IBM的Watson超级电脑在
05:28
by IBM's Watson?
126
313000
2000
Jeopardy智力竞赛的获胜？
05:30
I mean, that was epic.
127
315000
3000
那真是太伟大了。
05:33
In fact, I scoured the headlines
128
318000
2000
我查看各种报纸的新闻头条
05:35
looking for the best headline in a newspaper I could.
129
320000
2000
找到我觉得最好的
05:37
And I love this: "Watson Vanquishes Human Opponents."
130
322000
4000
我喜欢这句：”Watson征服人类对手。“
05:42
Jeopardy's not an easy game.
131
327000
2000
Jeopardy不是个容易的比赛。
05:44
It's about the nuance of human language.
132
329000
3000
获胜关键在于理解人类语言中的微妙细节。
05:47
And imagine if you would
133
332000
2000
你可以想象一下
05:49
A.I.'s like this on the cloud
134
334000
2000
像这样的人工智能存在于云计算中
05:51
available to every person with a cellphone.
135
336000
3000
所有拥有行动电话的人都可以使用的景象。
05:54
Four years ago here at TED,
136
339000
2000
四年前在TED,
05:56
Ray Kurzweil and I started a new university
137
341000
2000
雷·库兹威尔和我创立了一所新的大学
05:58
called Singularity University.
138
343000
2000
叫做“Singularity University”。
06:00
And we teach our students all of these technologies,
139
345000
3000
我们教给学生各种科技
06:03
and particularly how they can be used
140
348000
2000
特别是如何利用这些科技
06:05
to solve humanity's grand challenges.
141
350000
3000
来解决人类面临的巨大挑战。
06:08
And every year we ask them
142
353000
2000
每一年我们都要求学生
06:10
to start a company or a product or a service
143
355000
3000
创立一件公司或制作一种产品或者提供一项服务
06:13
that can affect positively the lives of a billion people
144
358000
3000
能在十年内对十亿人的生活产生
06:16
within a decade.
145
361000
2000
积极而实际的影响。
06:18
Think about that, the fact that, literally, a group of students
146
363000
3000
想象一下一群学生
06:21
can touch the lives of a billion people today.
147
366000
3000
今天可以影响到十亿人的生活。
06:24
30 years ago that would have sounded ludicrous.
148
369000
2000
30年前这听起来非常可笑。
06:26
Today we can point at dozens of companies
149
371000
3000
今天我们可以列举出几十间
06:29
that have done just that.
150
374000
2000
有这样成就的公司。
06:31
When I think about creating abundance,
151
376000
6000
当我想到创造富足社会，
06:37
it's not about creating a life of luxury for everybody on this planet;
152
382000
3000
并不是要为地球上的每一个人创造奢华的生活；
06:40
it's about creating a life of possibility.
153
385000
3000
而是创造充满可能性的生活。
06:43
It is about taking that which was scarce
154
388000
3000
是把原先稀缺的资源
06:46
and making it abundant.
155
391000
2000
变得充沛
06:48
You see, scarcity is contextual,
156
393000
3000
稀缺性是相对的，
06:51
and technology is a resource-liberating force.
157
396000
5000
而科技是一股解放资源的力量。
06:56
Let me give you an example.
158
401000
3000
我来举一个例子。
06:59
So this is a story of Napoleon III
159
404000
2000
这是一个拿破仑三世的故事
07:01
in the mid-1800s.
160
406000
2000
在1800到1810年中期。
07:03
He's the dude on the left.
161
408000
3000
他是左边这位
07:06
He invited over to dinner
162
411000
2000
邀请了泰王
07:08
the king of Siam.
163
413000
2000
共进晚餐。
07:10
All of Napoleon's troops
164
415000
2000
所有拿破仑的士兵
07:12
were fed with silver utensils,
165
417000
3000
使用银器用餐，
07:15
Napoleon himself with gold utensils.
166
420000
2000
拿破仑自己则使用金器。
07:17
But the King of Siam,
167
422000
2000
但是泰国国王
07:19
he was fed with aluminum utensils.
168
424000
2000
使用铝制的餐具。
07:21
You see, aluminum
169
426000
2000
铝
07:23
was the most valuable metal on the planet,
170
428000
3000
曾经是世界上最贵重的金属，
07:26
worth more than gold and platinum.
171
431000
3000
比黄金和白金还要昂贵。
07:29
It's the reason that the tip of the Washington Monument
172
434000
3000
这就是为什么华盛顿纪念碑的
07:32
is made of aluminum.
173
437000
2000
顶端是铝制的。
07:34
You see, even though aluminum
174
439000
2000
即使铝占了地球
07:36
is 8.3 percent of the Earth by mass,
175
441000
3000
总重量的8.3%。
07:39
it doesn't come as a pure metal.
176
444000
2000
但它不是以纯金属的形态存在。
07:41
It's all bound by oxygen and silicates.
177
446000
3000
它都是和氧或者硅酸结合。
07:44
But then the technology of electrolysis came along
178
449000
3000
但是随后出现了电解技术
07:47
and literally made aluminum so cheap
179
452000
3000
使得铝的价格如此低廉
07:50
that we use it with throw-away mentality.
180
455000
3000
以致我们就把铝制品当一次性用品般看待。
07:53
So let's project this analogy going forward.
181
458000
4000
让我们把这个比喻应用到其他方面，
07:57
We think about energy scarcity.
182
462000
2000
让我们想一想能源短缺。
07:59
Ladies and gentlemen,
183
464000
2000
女士们先生们，
08:01
we are on a planet
184
466000
2000
我们生活的这个星球上
08:03
that is bathed with 5,000 times more energy
185
468000
3000
接收着相当于我们年平均能源消耗
08:06
than we use in a year.
186
471000
3000
5000多倍的能量。
08:09
16 terawatts of energy hits the Earth's surface
187
474000
2000
每88分钟有16太瓦的能源
08:11
every 88 minutes.
188
476000
4000
投向地球表面。
08:15
It's not about being scarce,
189
480000
2000
问题并不是能源稀缺，
08:17
it's about accessibility.
190
482000
2000
而是可及性。
08:19
And there's good news here.
191
484000
2000
现在有几个好消息，
08:21
For the first time, this year
192
486000
2000
今年是有史以来第一次
08:23
the cost of solar-generated electricity
193
488000
3000
在印度，太阳能发电的成本降低至
08:26
is 50 percent that of diesel-generated electricity in India --
194
491000
4000
化石燃料发电成本的一半--
08:30
8.8 rupees versus 17 rupees.
195
495000
3000
8.8卢布相比较17卢布。
08:33
The cost of solar dropped 50 percent last year.
196
498000
2000
去年太阳能发电的成本降低了一半
08:35
Last month, MIT put out a study
197
500000
2000
上个月，MIT发布了一个研究报告
08:37
showing that by the end of this decade,
198
502000
2000
显示到2020年
08:39
in the sunny parts of the United States,
199
504000
2000
在美国阳光充足的地区，
08:41
solar electricity will be six cents a kilowatt hour
200
506000
2000
太阳能电力费用会降至6美分一千瓦／小时
08:43
compared to 15 cents
201
508000
2000
相比较全国平均
08:45
as a national average.
202
510000
2000
标准是15美分。
08:47
And if we have abundant energy,
203
512000
3000
如果我们有充足的能源，
08:50
we also have abundant water.
204
515000
3000
也就会有丰富的洁净水。
08:53
Now we talk about water wars.
205
518000
5000
下面我们来聊下水的战争。
08:58
Do you remember
206
523000
2000
还记得吗？
09:00
when Carl Sagan turned the Voyager spacecraft
207
525000
2000
1990年，Carl Saga在航海者太空飞船
09:02
back towards the Earth,
208
527000
2000
经过土星的时候，
09:04
in 1990 after it just passed Saturn?
209
529000
2000
调转其方向面对地球。
09:06
He took a famous photo. What was it called?
210
531000
3000
拍下了一幅著名的照片，叫什么名字？
09:09
"A Pale Blue Dot."
211
534000
2000
”淡蓝色的小点。“
09:11
Because we live on a water planet.
212
536000
3000
因为我们生活在一颗"水行星"上
09:14
We live on a planet 70 percent covered by water.
213
539000
3000
地球表面70％被水覆盖
09:17
Yes, 97.5 percent is saltwater,
214
542000
2000
是的，97.5％是海水
09:19
two percent is ice,
215
544000
2000
2%是冰山，
09:21
and we fight over a half a percent of the water on this planet,
216
546000
3000
我们则在争夺世界上1.5%的水资源，
09:24
but here too there is hope.
217
549000
2000
但我们仍然有希望。
09:26
And there is technology coming online,
218
551000
3000
有一项科技正准备投入应用，
09:29
not 10, 20 years from now,
219
554000
2000
并不是未来的10年20年以后，
09:31
right now.
220
556000
2000
就是现在。
09:33
There's nanotechnology coming on, nanomaterials.
221
558000
3000
有一种纳米科技。
09:36
And the conversation I had with Dean Kamen this morning,
222
561000
3000
今天早上我和一个伟大的DIY
09:39
one of the great DIY innovators,
223
564000
2000
发明家Dean Kamen聊天。
09:41
I'd like to share with you -- he gave me permission to do so --
224
566000
3000
我想要和大家分享－我得到了他的允许－
09:44
his technology called Slingshot
225
569000
2000
他开发的技术叫做“弹弓”
09:46
that many of you may have heard of,
226
571000
2000
在座的一些朋友可能听说过，
09:48
it is the size of a small dorm room refrigerator.
227
573000
2000
它是一个小房间一般大的冰箱，
09:50
It's able to generate
228
575000
2000
每天可以从
09:52
a thousand liters of clean drinking water a day
229
577000
2000
任何水源中－海水，污染水，公共厕所－
09:54
out of any source -- saltwater, polluted water, latrine --
230
579000
3000
生产出一千公升的洁净饮用水。
09:57
at less than two cents a liter.
231
582000
3000
每公升的成本低于2美分。
10:02
The chairman of Coca-Cola has just agreed
232
587000
2000
可口可乐的主席最近授意
10:04
to do a major test
233
589000
2000
在多个发展中国家对
10:06
of hundreds of units of this in the developing world.
234
591000
3000
数百台“弹弓”进行大规模测试。
10:09
And if that pans out,
235
594000
2000
如果测试成功，
10:11
which I have every confidence it will,
236
596000
2000
我很有信心它会成功，
10:13
Coca-Cola will deploy this globally
237
598000
2000
可口可乐将会在全球206个国家
10:15
to 206 countries
238
600000
2000
对该设备
10:17
around the planet.
239
602000
2000
进行部署。
10:19
This is the kind of innovation, empowered by this technology,
240
604000
3000
这就是当下已经存在的由科技
10:22
that exists today.
241
607000
4000
驱动的创新。
10:26
And we've seen this in cellphones.
242
611000
2000
我们在移动电话上看到这点。
10:28
My goodness, we're going to hit 70 percent penetration
243
613000
2000
我的天哪，在2013年底，发展中国家的
10:30
of cellphones in the developing world
244
615000
2000
移动电话渗透率将
10:32
by the end of 2013.
245
617000
2000
达到70％。
10:34
Think about it,
246
619000
2000
想象一下。
10:36
that a Masai warrior on a cellphone in the middle of Kenya
247
621000
3000
在肯尼亚中部的一个马赛士兵
10:39
has better mobile comm
248
624000
2000
拥有的比25年前的里根总统
10:41
than President Reagan did 25 years ago.
249
626000
3000
更好的移动通讯。
10:44
And if they're on a smartphone on Google,
250
629000
2000
如果他们使用智能手机访问Google,
10:46
they've got access to more knowledge and information
251
631000
2000
他们将得到比克林顿总统15年前
10:48
than President Clinton did 15 years ago.
252
633000
2000
所得到的更多的知识和信息。
10:50
They're living in a world of information and communication abundance
253
635000
3000
他们生活在一个信息和通讯富足的世界
10:53
that no one could have ever predicted.
254
638000
3000
这在过去没人能预测到的。
10:57
Better than that,
255
642000
2000
还有更棒的，
10:59
the things that you and I
256
644000
2000
我们花费了
11:01
spent tens and hundreds of thousands of dollars for --
257
646000
2000
成千上百美金所获得的－
11:03
GPS, HD video and still images,
258
648000
3000
GPS，高清电视和
11:06
libraries of books and music,
259
651000
3000
图形图像，
11:09
medical diagnostic technology --
260
654000
2000
以及医疗诊断技术－
11:11
are now literally dematerializing and demonetizing
261
656000
3000
被非物质化并非商业化
11:14
into your cellphone.
262
659000
3000
输入到你的行动电话中。
11:19
Probably the best part of it
263
664000
2000
这其中最好的
11:21
is what's coming down the pike in health.
264
666000
3000
部分或许是医疗。
11:24
Last month, I had the pleasure of announcing with Qualcomm Foundation
265
669000
4000
上个月我很荣幸和高通基金共同宣布
11:28
something called the $10 million Qualcomm Tricorder X Prize.
266
673000
4000
1000万美金高通手持移动分析仪X大赛。
11:32
We're challenging teams around the world
267
677000
2000
我们向全世界的团队发出挑战
11:34
to basically combine these technologies
268
679000
2000
来将这些科技
11:36
into a mobile device
269
681000
2000
组合进移动设备。
11:38
that you can speak to, because it's got A.I.,
270
683000
2000
你可以向它说话，因为它拥有人工智能
11:40
you can cough on it, you can do a finger blood prick.
271
685000
3000
也可以对着它咳嗽，或者扎手指验血。
11:43
And to win, it needs to be able to diagnose you better
272
688000
2000
要赢得竞赛，这个设备需要能为你提供比一组
11:45
than a team of board-certified doctors.
273
690000
4000
经过委员会验证的医师更好的诊断。
11:49
So literally, imagine this device
274
694000
3000
想象这个设备
11:52
in the middle of the developing world where there are no doctors,
275
697000
3000
应用在缺少医师，25％的疾病负担
11:55
25 percent of the disease burden
276
700000
2000
仅有1.3%的医疗人员
11:57
and 1.3 percent of the health care workers.
277
702000
3000
的发展中国家。
12:00
When this device sequences an RNA or DNA virus
278
705000
2000
如果这个设备对病毒的RNA或者DNA进行测序后
12:02
that it doesn't recognize,
279
707000
2000
无法识别，
12:04
it calls the CDC
280
709000
2000
它会呼叫疾病控制中心
12:06
and prevents the pandemic from happening in the first place.
281
711000
3000
第一时间防止大规模疫情的爆发。
12:11
But here, here is the biggest force
282
716000
3000
还有最能创造
12:14
for bringing about a world of abundance.
283
719000
2000
富足的世界的力量。
12:16
I call it the rising billion.
284
721000
3000
我称之为“崛起的十亿人”。
12:19
So the white lines here are population.
285
724000
3000
这道白线代表人口。
12:22
We just passed the seven billion mark on Earth.
286
727000
3000
地球上的人口最近超过了70亿。
12:25
And by the way,
287
730000
2000
顺便提一下，
12:27
the biggest protection against a population explosion
288
732000
2000
防止人口爆炸性增长的最好方法就是
12:29
is making the world educated
289
734000
2000
让全世界人接受更多教育
12:31
and healthy.
290
736000
3000
变得更健康。
12:34
In 2010,
291
739000
2000
在2010年，
12:36
we had just short of two billion people
292
741000
2000
我们有接近20亿的人
12:38
online, connected.
293
743000
2000
与网络连接。
12:40
By 2020,
294
745000
2000
到2020年，
12:42
that's going from two billion to five billion
295
747000
2000
英特网用户将会从20亿
12:44
Internet users.
296
749000
2000
增长到50亿。
12:46
Three billion new minds
297
751000
2000
30亿未曾
12:48
who have never been heard from before
298
753000
2000
被注意的新用户。
12:50
are connecting to the global conversation.
299
755000
4000
将参与到这全球的对话中来。
12:54
What will these people want?
300
759000
2000
他们想要什么？
12:56
What will they consume? What will they desire?
301
761000
2000
他们将会消费什么？他们的愿望是什么？
12:58
And rather than having economic shutdown,
302
763000
2000
我们将迎来的是最大的，
13:00
we're about to have the biggest economic injection ever.
303
765000
3000
是经济活力的注入而不是衰退。
13:03
These people represent
304
768000
2000
这些人代表着
13:05
tens of trillions of dollars
305
770000
2000
几十万亿美元的消费力
13:07
injected into the global economy.
306
772000
3000
将会注入全球经济体。
13:10
And they will get healthier
307
775000
2000
他们会因为使用手持移动分析仪
13:12
by using the Tricorder,
308
777000
2000
而更健康，
13:14
and they'll become better educated by using the Khan Academy,
309
779000
2000
也会因为观看Khan Academy变得更有聪慧，
13:16
and by literally being able to use
310
781000
3000
随着3D打印和无限计算
13:19
3D printing and infinite computing
311
784000
3000
的普及而变得比以往
13:22
[become] more productive than ever before.
312
787000
3000
任何时代都更有生产力。
13:25
So what could three billion rising,
313
790000
3000
30亿健康，接受教育，
13:28
healthy, educated, productive members of humanity
314
793000
3000
富有生产力的人类社会成员
13:31
bring to us?
315
796000
2000
能为我们带来什么？
13:33
How about a set of voices that have never been heard from before.
316
798000
3000
一系列我们从未接触过的新思维。
13:36
What about giving the oppressed,
317
801000
2000
还有给予受到压制的，
13:38
wherever they might be,
318
803000
2000
或者其他困难的
13:40
the voice to be heard and the voice to act
319
805000
2000
人们首次获得受到关注
13:42
for the first time ever?
320
807000
3000
和帮助的机会。
13:45
What will these three billion people bring?
321
810000
3000
这30亿人会带来什么？
13:48
What about contributions we can't even predict?
322
813000
3000
或许是我们都还未能预见的贡献？
13:51
The one thing I've learned at the X Prize
323
816000
2000
我在筹办X大赛的过程中体会到的一点是
13:53
is that small teams
324
818000
2000
目标清晰，富有激情的
13:55
driven by their passion with a clear focus
325
820000
3000
小型团队就能取得
13:58
can do extraordinary things,
326
823000
2000
卓越的成就，
14:00
things that large corporations and governments
327
825000
2000
在过去只有大企业和政府
14:02
could only do in the past.
328
827000
3000
才能做到的事情。
14:05
Let me share and close with a story
329
830000
2000
让我来分享一个故事作为结尾，
14:07
that really got me excited.
330
832000
3000
这个故事让我非常兴奋。
14:10
There is a program that some of you might have heard of.
331
835000
2000
在座的有一些可能听说过这个项目。
14:12
It's a game called Foldit.
332
837000
2000
是一个叫做Foldit的游戏。
14:14
It came out of the University of Washington in Seattle.
333
839000
4000
它来自西雅图的华盛顿大学。
14:18
And this is a game
334
843000
2000
它是一个
14:20
where individuals can actually take a sequence of amino acids
335
845000
4000
能让个人获取一个氨基酸序列，
14:24
and figure out how the protein is going to fold.
336
849000
4000
并分析出其中的蛋白质是如何折叠的。
14:28
And how it folds dictates its structure and its functionality.
337
853000
2000
其折叠的方式决定了该氨基酸的结构和功能。
14:30
And it's very important for research in medicine.
338
855000
3000
这是非常重要的医学研究。
14:33
And up until now, it's been a supercomputer problem.
339
858000
3000
直到目前，这都还是一个由超级电脑来处理的问题。
14:36
And this game has been played
340
861000
2000
这个游戏起先
14:38
by university professors and so forth.
341
863000
2000
是给大学教授玩。
14:40
And it's literally, hundreds of thousands of people
342
865000
3000
然后成百上千的人也上线
14:43
came online and started playing it.
343
868000
2000
开始玩这个游戏。
14:45
And it showed that, in fact, today,
344
870000
2000
它也展示出时至今日，
14:47
the human pattern recognition machinery
345
872000
2000
人类的模式辨识机能
14:49
is better at folding proteins than the best computers.
346
874000
3000
仍然要比最好的电脑都要强。
14:52
And when these individuals went and looked
347
877000
2000
当大家排列出最好的
14:54
at who was the best protein folder in the world,
348
879000
3000
蛋白质折叠专家时，
14:57
it wasn't an MIT professor,
349
882000
2000
并不是MIT的教授，
14:59
it wasn't a CalTech student,
350
884000
2000
也不是加州理工学院的学生，
15:01
it was a person from England, from Manchester,
351
886000
3000
而是一位来自曼彻斯特的英国女性。
15:04
a woman who, during the day,
352
889000
4000
白天在一家康复治疗整所
15:08
was an executive assistant at a rehab clinic
353
893000
3000
行政助理的工作，
15:11
and, at night, was the world's best protein folder.
354
896000
4000
而夜晚也是全世界最好的蛋白质折叠专家。
15:16
Ladies and gentlemen,
355
901000
2000
女士们先生们
15:18
what gives me tremendous confidence
356
903000
2000
给予我对未来
15:20
in the future
357
905000
4000
巨大信心的，
15:24
is the fact that we are now more empowered as individuals
358
909000
4000
是我们每一位作为个人都被赋予
15:28
to take on the grand challenges of this planet.
359
913000
3000
挑战全世界面临的难题的能力。
15:31
We have the tools with this exponential technology.
360
916000
3000
我们拥有快速发展的科技和工具，
15:34
We have the passion of the DIY innovator.
361
919000
3000
也有DIY发明家的激情。
15:37
We have the capital of the techno-philanthropist.
362
922000
3000
大家都有能力成为技术－慈善家。
15:40
And we have three billion new minds
363
925000
2000
同时还有30亿新的用户
15:42
coming online to work with us
364
927000
2000
来到线上与我们合作
15:44
to solve the grand challenges,
365
929000
2000
一起解决巨大的挑战，
15:46
to do that which we must do.
366
931000
4000
做到我们必须要做的事情。
15:50
We are living into extraordinary decades ahead.
367
935000
2000
我们正要迎来卓越的几十年。
15:52
Thank you.
368
937000
2000
谢谢大家。
15:54
(Applause)
369
939000
14000
（掌声）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Peter Diamandis - Space activistPeter Diamandis runs the X Prize Foundation, which offers large cash incentive prizes to inventors who can solve grand challenges like space flight, low-cost mobile medical diagnostics and oil spill cleanup. He is the chair of Singularity University, which teaches executives and grad students about exponentially growing technologies.
Why you should listen
Watch the live onstage debate with Paul Gilding that followed Peter Diamandis' 2012 TEDTalk >>
Peter Diamandis is the founder and chair of the X Prize Foundation, a nonprofit whose mission is simply "to bring about radical breakthroughs for the benefit of humanity." By offering a big cash prize for a specific accomplishment, the X Prize stimulates competition and excitement around some of the planet's most important goals. Diamandis is also co-founder and chairman of Singularity University which runs Exponential Technologies Executive and Graduate Student Programs.
Diamandis' background is in space exploration -- before the X Prize, he ran a company that studied low-cost launching technologies and Zero-G which offers the public the chance to train like an astronaut and experience weightlessness. But though the X Prize's first $10 million went to a space-themed challenge, Diamandis' goal now is to extend the prize into health care, social policy, education and many other fields that could use a dose of competitive innovation.
Peter Diamandis | Speaker | TED.com