TEDGlobal 2013
Charles Robertson: Africa's next boom
Čarls Robertson (Charles Robertson): Afrika: sledeći bum
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U protekloj deceniji je viđen spor i stabilan ekonomski rast širom afričkog kontinenta. Međutim, ekonomista Čarls Robertson ima smelu teoriju: Afrika je na ivici eksplozije. On govori o nekoliko pokazatelja - od porasta nivoa obrazovanja do uvećanja globalnih investicija (i to ne samo iz Kine) - koji mu ukazuju na brži rast za milijardu ljudi, ranije nego što mislite.
Charles Robertson - Emerging-markets economist
In "The Fastest Billion," Charles Robertson re-examines the narrative of economic growth in African nations. Full bio
In "The Fastest Billion," Charles Robertson re-examines the narrative of economic growth in African nations. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Africa is booming.
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Afrika je u usponu.
00:14
Per capita incomes since the year 2000
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Prihod po glavi stanovnika
se udvostručio
se udvostručio
00:16
have doubled,
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od 2000.
00:18
and this boom is impacting on everyone.
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i ovaj uspon utiče na sve.
00:21
Life expectancy has increased by one year
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Životni vek se produžio
za po godinu dana
za po godinu dana
00:24
every three years for the last decade.
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svake treće godine
tokom ove poslednje decenije.
tokom ove poslednje decenije.
00:27
That means if an African child is born today,
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To znači da dete rođeno u Africi danas
00:30
rather than three days ago,
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u odnosu na dete rođeno pre 3 dana
00:32
they will get an extra day of life
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dobija jedan dodatni dan
00:34
at the end of their lifespan.
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u svom životnom veku.
00:36
It's that quick.
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To se odvija neverovatnom brzinom.
00:38
And HIV infection rates are down 27 percent:
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I HIV infekcije su se smanjile za 27%.
00:42
600,000 less people a year are getting HIV
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Svake godine se zarazi 600 000
00:46
in sub-Saharan Africa.
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manje ljudi ovim virusom
u podsaharskoj Africi.
u podsaharskoj Africi.
00:49
The battle against malaria is being won,
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Pobeda protiv malarije je na vidiku,
00:52
with deaths from malaria down 27 percent,
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sa 27% pada stope smrtnosti,
00:55
according to the latest World Bank data.
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prema poslednjim podacima
Svetske banke.
Svetske banke.
00:56
And malaria nets actually are playing a role in that.
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Mreže protiv malarije igraju
bitnu ulogu u tome.
bitnu ulogu u tome.
00:59
This shouldn't surprise us,
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Ovo ne bi trebalo da nas iznenadi,
01:02
because actually, everybody grows.
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jer, u stvari, svi rastu.
01:04
If you go back to Imperial Rome
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Ukoliko se vratimo u stari Rim
01:06
in the Year 1 A.D.,
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u prvoj godini Nove ere,
01:09
there was admittedly about 1,800 years
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mora se priznati da za
oko 1 800 godina od tada
oko 1 800 godina od tada
01:11
where there wasn't an awful lot of growth.
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nije bilo previše rasta.
01:13
But then the people that the Romans
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Ali, moji preci, koje bi Rimljani
01:15
would have called Scottish barbarians, my ancestors,
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nazvali škotskim varvarima,
01:19
were actually part of the Industrial Revolution,
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su u stvari bili deo
industrijske revolucije.
industrijske revolucije.
01:21
and in the 19th century, growth began to accelerate,
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I u 19. veku, razvoj je počeo
da se ubrzava
da se ubrzava
01:24
and you saw that get quicker and quicker,
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i videli ste da je bio sve brži i brži
01:27
and it's been impacting everyone.
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i da je uticao na sve.
01:30
It doesn't matter if this is the jungles of Singapore
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Nije bitno da li su to džungle
u Singapuru
u Singapuru
01:32
or the tundra of northern Finland.
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ili tundre u severnoj Finskoj.
01:34
Everybody gets involved. It's just a matter of when
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Svi su uključeni.
Samo je pitanje vremena
Samo je pitanje vremena
01:37
the inevitable happens.
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kada će se neizbežno desiti.
01:40
Among the reasons I think it's happening right now
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Jedan od razloga što se to
dešava baš sada
dešava baš sada
01:42
is the quality of the leadership across Africa.
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je kvalitet vladavine širom Afrike.
01:46
I think most of us would agree that in the 1990s,
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Mislim da bi se većina sa mnom
složila da je tokom '90-ih
složila da je tokom '90-ih
01:49
the greatest politician in the world was African,
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najgenijalniji političar na svetu
bio Afrikanac.
bio Afrikanac.
01:53
but I'm meeting brilliant people
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Ali ja srećem brilijantne ljude
01:55
across the continent the entire time,
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uzduž i popreko čitavog kontinenta
sve vreme,
sve vreme,
01:57
and they're doing the reforms
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i oni rade na reformama
01:59
which have transformed the economic situation
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koje su transformisale
ekonomsku situaciju
ekonomsku situaciju
02:01
for their countries.
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u njihovim zemljama.
02:03
And the West is engaging with that.
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Zapadni svet je uključen u to.
02:05
The West has given debt forgiveness programs
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Zapad je pružio programe
oproštaja duga
oproštaja duga
02:07
which have halved sub-Saharan debt
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koji su prepolovili podsaharski dug
02:10
from about 70 percent of GDP down to about 40.
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od oko 70% nacionalnih BDP-a
na oko 40%.
na oko 40%.
02:14
At the same time, our debt level's gone up to 120
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U isto vreme, nivo našeg duga
se popeo na 120%
se popeo na 120%
02:16
and we're all feeling slightly miserable
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i svi mi se osećamo pomalo bedno
02:18
as a result.
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kao rezultat toga.
02:20
Politics gets weaker when debt is high.
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Politika države oslabi kada je dug visok.
02:23
When public sector debt is low,
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Kada je dug javnog sektora nizak,
02:25
governments don't have to choose
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vlade ne moraju da biraju
02:26
between investing in education and health
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između ulaganja u obrazovanje
i zdravstvo
i zdravstvo
02:29
and paying interest on that debt you owe.
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i plaćanja kamate na državne dugove.
02:31
And it's not just the public sector which is looking so good.
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Nije samo javni sektor
koji je dobrostojeći,
koji je dobrostojeći,
02:34
The private sector as well.
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već i privatni sektor.
02:36
Again, in the West, we have private sector debt
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Da napomenem, na Zapadu,
mi imamo dug privatnog sektora
mi imamo dug privatnog sektora
02:39
of 200 percent of GDP in Spain,
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na nivou od 200% BDP-a u Španiji,
02:42
the U.K., and the U.S.
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Ujedinjenom Kraljevstvu
i Sjedinjenim državama.
i Sjedinjenim državama.
02:44
That's an awful lot of debt.
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To su jako velika dugovanja.
02:46
Africa, many African countries,
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Afrika, mnoge afričke zemlje,
02:49
are sitting at 10 to 30 percent of GDP.
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imaju 10% do 30% duga
od ukupnog BDP-a.
od ukupnog BDP-a.
02:52
If there's any continent that can do what China has done --
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Ukoliko postoji neki kontinent koji može
da učini ono sto je Kina učinila -
da učini ono sto je Kina učinila -
02:56
China's at about 130 percent of GDP on that chart --
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Kina je na 130% BDP-a
na ovom grafikonu -
na ovom grafikonu -
02:59
if anyone can do what China has done
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ako neko može da učini
ono što je Kina učinila
ono što je Kina učinila
03:01
in the last 30 years,
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tokom poslednjih 30 godina
03:03
it'll be Africa in the next 30.
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to bi bila Afrika u narednih 30.
03:06
So they've got great government finances, great private sector debt.
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Oni imaju fantastične državne budžete
i jako dobar dug privatnog sektora.
i jako dobar dug privatnog sektora.
03:09
Does anyone recognize this? In fact, they do.
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Da li neko prepoznaje ovo?
Prepoznaje.
Prepoznaje.
03:11
Foreign direct investment
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Direktne strane investicije
03:13
has poured into Africa in the last 15 years.
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se slivaju u Afriku
tokom poslednjih 15 godina.
tokom poslednjih 15 godina.
03:17
Back in the '70s,
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Tokom '70-ih godina, nikome nije
03:19
no one touched the continent with a barge pole.
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padalo na pamet
da se dotakne kontinenta.
da se dotakne kontinenta.
03:22
And this investment is actually Western-led.
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A ove investicije su
predvođene Zapadom.
predvođene Zapadom.
03:24
We hear a lot about China,
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Mi čujemo dosta o Kini,
03:26
and they do lend a lot of money,
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i oni pozajmljuju dosta novca,
03:28
but 60 percent of the FDI in the last couple of years
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ali 60% stranih investicija
poslednjih nekoliko godina
poslednjih nekoliko godina
03:31
has come from Europe, America, Australia, Canada.
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je došlo iz Evrope, Amerike,
Australije, Kanade.
Australije, Kanade.
03:34
Ten percent's come from India.
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10% je prispelo iz Indije.
03:36
And they're investing in energy.
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I oni ulažu u energiju.
03:39
Africa produces 10 million barrels a day of oil now.
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Afrika prozvodi 10 miliona
barela nafte dnevno.
barela nafte dnevno.
03:42
It's the same as Saudi Arabia or Russia.
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To je isto kao i Saudijska Arabija
ili Rusija.
ili Rusija.
03:45
And they're investing in telecoms,
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I oni ulažu u telekomunikacije,
03:47
shopping malls.
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tržne centre.
03:49
And this very encouraging story, I think,
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Ova jako ohrabrujuća priča je
03:53
is partly demographic-led.
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delimično predvođena demografijom.
03:54
And it's not just about African demographics.
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I nije samo reč o afričkoj demografiji.
03:58
I'm showing you the number of 15- to 24-year-olds
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Pogledajte broj mladih,
raspon godina 15 do 24,
raspon godina 15 do 24,
04:01
in various parts of the world,
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u različitim delovima sveta,
04:03
and the blue line is the one I want you to focus on for a second.
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i želim da se fokusirate
na plavu liniju za trenutak.
na plavu liniju za trenutak.
04:06
Ten years ago, say you're Foxconn
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Pre 10 godina, recimo
vi ste Fokskon kompanija
vi ste Fokskon kompanija
04:09
setting up an iPhone factory, by chance.
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koja postavlja jednu fabriku ajfona,
na primer.
na primer.
04:12
You might choose China,
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Vi možda izaberete Kinu,
04:13
which is the bulk of that East Asian blue line,
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koja predstavlja najveći procenat
istočno-azijske plave linije,
istočno-azijske plave linije,
04:15
where there's 200 million young people,
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gde postoji 200 miliona mladih ljudi,
04:17
and every year until 2010 that's getting bigger.
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i svake godine do 2010.,
taj broj je bivao veći.
taj broj je bivao veći.
04:22
Which means you're going to have new guys
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To znači da ćete imati mlade koji će
04:24
knocking on the door saying, "Give us a job,"
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kucati na vaša vrata i govoriti:
"Dajte nam posao," i:
"Dajte nam posao," i:
04:27
and, "I don't need a big pay rise, just please give me a job."
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"Meni ne treba velika povišica,
samo mi dajte posao".
samo mi dajte posao".
04:30
Now, that's completely changed now.
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Sada se to potpuno promenilo.
04:33
This decade, we're going to see a 20- to 30-percent
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Ove decenije, videćemo pad
od 20-30%
od 20-30%
04:36
fall in the number of 15- to 24-year-olds in China.
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u broju mladih od 15-24 godina u Kini.
04:40
So where do you set up your new factory?
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Onda gde da postavite
vašu novu fabriku?
vašu novu fabriku?
04:43
You look at South Asia, and people are.
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Razmatrate južnu Aziju,
kao i drugi ljudi.
kao i drugi ljudi.
04:45
They're looking at Pakistan and Bangladesh,
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Oni razmatraju Pakistan i Bangladeš,
04:47
and they're also looking at Africa.
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i isto tako Afriku.
04:49
And they're looking at Africa
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I oni razmatraju Afriku
04:51
because that yellow line is showing you
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jer žuta linija vam pokazuje
04:54
that the number of young Africans
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da će broj mladih Afrikanaca
04:55
is going to continue to get bigger
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nastaviti da raste,
04:57
decade after decade after decade out to 2050.
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deceniju za decenijom sve do 2050.
05:02
Now, there's a problem with lots of young people
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Postoji problem kada mnogo mladih
05:05
coming into any market,
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stigne na tržište rada u isto vreme,
05:07
particularly when they're young men.
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naročito kada su to mladići.
05:09
A bit dangerous, sometimes.
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Ponekad malo i opasno.
05:11
I think one of the crucial factors
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Po mom mišljenju,
jedan od presudnih faktora
jedan od presudnih faktora
05:13
is how educated is that demographic?
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je nivo obrazovanja
te demografske grupacije.
te demografske grupacije.
05:16
If you look at the red line here,
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Ako pogledate ovu crvenu liniju
05:18
what you're going to see is that in 1975,
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videćete da je 1975.
05:20
just nine percent of kids
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samo 9% mladih
05:22
were in secondary school education
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pohađalo srednju školu
05:24
in sub-Saharan Africa.
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u podsaharskoj Africi.
05:27
Would you set up a factory
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Da li biste izgradili fabriku
05:29
in sub-Sahara in the mid-1970s?
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u podsaharskoj oblasti
sredinom 1970-ih?
sredinom 1970-ih?
05:31
Nobody else did.
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Niko nije.
05:32
They chose instead Turkey and Mexico
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Oni su izabrali Tursku i Meksiko
05:35
to set up the textiles factories,
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da izgrade fabrike tekstilnih proizvoda,
05:37
because their education levels
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zato što je nivo obrazovanja
u tim zemljama
u tim zemljama
05:39
were 25 to 30 percent.
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bio 25-30% populacije.
05:42
Today, sub-Sahara is at the levels
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Danas, podsaharaska Afrika
je na tom nivou
je na tom nivou
05:45
that Turkey and Mexico were at in 1975.
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gde su Turska i Meksiko bili 1975.
05:49
They will get the textiles jobs
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Mladi u Africi će dobiti poslove
u tekstilnim fabrikama
u tekstilnim fabrikama
05:52
that will take people out of rural poverty
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koji će izbaviti ljude
iz ruralnog siromaštva
iz ruralnog siromaštva
05:55
and put them on the road to industrialization and wealth.
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i usmeriti ih na put
ka industrijalizaciji i bogatstvu.
ka industrijalizaciji i bogatstvu.
05:59
So what's Africa looking like today?
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Kako izgleda Afrika danas?
06:02
This is how I look at Africa.
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Ja ovako gledam na Afriku.
06:04
It's a bit odd, because I'm an economist.
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Malo je čudno, jer sam ja ekonomista.
06:06
Each little box is about a billion dollars,
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Svaka mala kutija vredi
milijardu dolara,
milijardu dolara,
06:08
and you see that I pay an awful lot of attention
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i vidite da ja usmeravam mnogo pažnje
06:10
to Nigeria sitting there in the middle.
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na Nigeriju koja je u sredini.
06:12
South Africa is playing a role.
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Juznoafrička republika igra
značajnu ulogu.
značajnu ulogu.
06:14
But when I'm thinking about the future,
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Ali kad razmišljam o budućnosti,
06:16
I'm actually most interested
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ja sam najviše zainteresovan
06:19
in Central, Western and Southern Africa.
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za centralni, zapadni
i južni deo Afrike.
i južni deo Afrike.
06:21
If I look at Africa by population,
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Ako gledam na Afriku
iz ugla broja stanovnika,
iz ugla broja stanovnika,
06:24
East Africa stands out
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istočna Afrika se ističe
06:25
as so much potential.
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sa velikim potencijalom.
06:27
And I'm showing you something else with these maps.
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Ja vam pokazujem nešto drugo
na ovim mapama.
na ovim mapama.
06:30
I'm showing you democracy versus autocracy.
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Pokazujem vam demokratiju
protiv autokratije.
protiv autokratije.
06:33
Fragile democracies is the beige color.
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Krhke demokratije su u bež boji.
06:36
Strong democracies are the orange color.
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Jake demokratije su
u narandžastoj boji.
u narandžastoj boji.
06:39
And what you'll see here is that most Africans
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Vi vidite ovde da većina Afrikanaca
06:42
are now living in democracies.
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danas živi u demokratijama.
06:46
Why does that matter?
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Zašto je to bitno?
06:48
Because what people want
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Zato što ono što ljudi žele
06:50
is what politicians try,
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je to što političari pokušavaju.
06:52
they don't always succeed, but they try and deliver.
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Oni ne uspevaju uvek,
ali pokušaju i isporuče.
ali pokušaju i isporuče.
06:55
And what you've got is a reinforcing positive circle going on.
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Ono što se dešava je
da se pozitivni krug ojačava.
da se pozitivni krug ojačava.
06:58
In Ghana in the elections, in December 2012,
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Decembra 2012.
na izborima u Gani,
na izborima u Gani,
07:01
the battle between the two candidates
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borba između dva kandidata
07:03
was over education.
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se vodila na polju obrazovanja.
07:06
One guy offered free secondary school education
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1993
Jedan kandidat je nudio
besplatno srednjoškolsko
besplatno srednjoškolsko
07:08
to all, not just 30 percent.
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obrazovanje za sve, ne samo za 30%.
07:11
The other guy had to say,
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Drugi kandidat je rekao:
07:12
I'm going to build 50 new schools.
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"Ja ću da izgradim 50 novih škola".
07:14
He won by a margin.
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Pobedio je sa malom razlikom.
07:17
So democracy is encouraging governments
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Demokratija podrazumeva
ohrabrivanje vlada
ohrabrivanje vlada
07:20
to invest in education.
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da ulažu u obrazovanje.
07:22
Education is helping growth and investment,
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Obrazovanje pomaže
privrednom rastu i investicijama
privrednom rastu i investicijama
07:24
and that's giving budget revenues,
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i to povećava budžetske prihode,
07:25
which is giving governments more money,
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samim tim vlade raspolažu
sa više para,
sa više para,
07:27
which is helping growth through education.
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i samim tim potpomažu rast
kroz obrazovanje.
kroz obrazovanje.
07:30
It's a positive, virtuous circle.
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To je pozitivni, začarani krug.
07:33
But I get asked this question,
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Ali stalno me pitaju,
07:35
and this particular question makes me quite sad:
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i ovo specifično pitanje
me čini izuzetno tužnim:
me čini izuzetno tužnim:
07:38
It's, "But what about corruption?
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"A šta sa korupcijom?
07:41
How can you invest in Africa when there's corruption?"
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Kako da investiramo u Afriku
pored korupcije?"
pored korupcije?"
07:45
And what makes me sad about it
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I ono sto me čini tužnim
u vezi sa tim
u vezi sa tim
07:47
is that this graph here is showing you
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je to što vam ovaj grafikon pokazuje -
07:49
that the biggest correlation with corruption is wealth.
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da bogatstvo i korupcija
imaju najveću korelaciju.
imaju najveću korelaciju.
07:53
When you're poor, corruption is not your biggest priority.
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Kad si siromašan, korupcija ti nije
najveći prioritet.
najveći prioritet.
07:57
And the countries on the right hand side,
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Zemlje sa desne strane,
07:59
you'll see the per capita GDP,
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videćete BDP po glavi stanovnika,
08:01
basically every country
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u suštini svaka zemlja
08:03
with a per capita GDP of, say, less than 5,000 dollars,
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sa BDP-om po glavi stanovnika,
recimo, manjim od 5000 američkih dolara,
recimo, manjim od 5000 američkih dolara,
08:06
has got a corruption score
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ima nivo korupcije od otprilike
08:09
of roughly, what's that, about three?
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šta je to, tri?
08:12
Three out of 10. That's not good.
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Tri na skali od deset.
To nije dobro.
To nije dobro.
08:14
Every poor country is corrupt.
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Svaka siromašna zemlja
je korumpirana.
je korumpirana.
08:16
Every rich country is relatively uncorrupt.
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Svaka bogata zemlja
je relativno nekorumpirana.
je relativno nekorumpirana.
08:20
How do you get from poverty and corruption
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Kako da se pređe
od siromaštva i korupcije
od siromaštva i korupcije
08:24
to wealth and less corruption?
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na bogatstvo i manje korupcije?
08:27
You see the middle class grow.
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Videćete jačanje srednje klase.
08:29
And the way to do that is to invest,
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3487
I način da se to desi su investicije,
08:32
not to say I'm not investing in that continent
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a ne reći da ja ne investiram
u taj kontinent
u taj kontinent
08:36
because there's too much corruption.
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zato što je korupcija
suviše rasprostranjena.
suviše rasprostranjena.
08:38
Now, I don't want to be an apologist for corruption.
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Ja nemam nameru da stanem
u odbranu korupcije.
u odbranu korupcije.
08:41
I've been arrested because I refused to pay a bribe --
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509176
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Bio sam uhapšen zato što sam
odbio da dam mito -
odbio da dam mito -
08:44
not in Africa, actually.
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2112
zapravo ne u Africi.
08:46
But what I'm saying here is that
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Ali ono što podvlačim ovde je da
08:47
we can make a difference
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515925
1790
mi možemo da napravimo razliku
08:49
and we can do that by investing.
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517715
2906
i to možemo da uradimo
kroz investicije.
kroz investicije.
08:52
Now I'm going to let you in on a little not-so-secret.
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520621
3507
Sada ću da vam otkrijem jednu
malu ne baš toliku tajnu.
malu ne baš toliku tajnu.
08:56
Economists aren't great at forecasting.
204
524128
2867
Ekonomisti nisu baš tako dobri
u prognozama.
u prognozama.
08:58
Because the question really is, what happens next?
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526995
2112
Zato je je u stvari pitanje,
šta se dešava sledeće?
šta se dešava sledeće?
09:01
And if you go back to the year 2000,
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529107
2524
I ako se vratite u 2000.,
09:03
what you'll find is The Economist
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1763
naći ćete veoma slavnu
naslovnu stranu
naslovnu stranu
09:05
had a very famous cover, "The Hopeless Continent,"
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533394
3168
magazina "Ekonomist",
"Beznadežni kontinent."
"Beznadežni kontinent."
09:08
and what they'd done is they'd looked at growth
209
536562
2182
Oni su gledali na rast
09:10
in Africa over the previous 10 years -- two percent --
210
538744
4130
u Africi tokom prethodnih10 godina,
koji je 2%,
koji je 2%,
09:14
and they said,
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2104
i pitali su se,
09:16
what's going to happen in the next 10 years?
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šta će se desiti
u narednih deset godina?
u narednih deset godina?
09:19
They assumed two percent,
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2379
"Ekonomist" je pretpostavio 2% rasta,
09:21
and that made it a pretty hopeless story,
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1893
i tako je nastala beznadežna priča,
09:23
because population growth was two and a half.
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zato što je rast stanovništva
bio na 2,5%.
bio na 2,5%.
09:26
People got poorer in Africa in the 1990s.
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554933
2780
Ljudi u Africi su osiromašili
tokom '90-ih.
tokom '90-ih.
09:29
Now 2012, The Economist has a new cover,
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557713
3438
U 2012. "Ekonomist" ima
novu naslovnu stranu,
novu naslovnu stranu,
09:33
and what does that new cover show?
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1846
i šta ta nova naslovna strana pokazuje?
09:34
That new cover shows, well, Africa rising,
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2983
Pokazuje da se Afrika uzdiže,
09:37
because the growth over the last 10 years
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565980
1727
zato što je rast
u poslednjih 10 godina
u poslednjih 10 godina
09:39
has been about five and a half percent.
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2620
bio negde oko 5,5%.
09:42
I would like to see if you can all now become economists,
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570327
3526
Želeo bih da vidim ako svi vi sada
možete da postanete ekonomisti.
možete da postanete ekonomisti.
09:45
because if growth for the last 10 years
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573853
2515
Ako je rast za poslednjih 10 godina
09:48
has been five and a half percent,
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576368
2120
bio na 5,5%,
09:50
what do you think the IMF is forecasting
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578488
1703
šta mislite da MMF predviđa
09:52
for the next five years of growth in Africa?
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580191
3020
za narednih pet godina
rasta u Africi?
rasta u Africi?
09:55
Very good. I think you're secretly saying
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2775
Vrlo dobro. Mislim da sami sebi
09:57
to your head, probably five and a half percent.
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585986
2182
priznajete, verovatno 5,5%.
10:00
You're all economists, and I think,
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588168
1942
Vi ste svi ekonomisti, i ja mislim
10:02
like most economists, wrong.
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590110
2482
kao većina ekonomista,
niste u pravu.
niste u pravu.
10:04
No offense.
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2096
Bez uvrede.
10:06
What I like to do is try and find the countries
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2881
Ono što želim da uradim je
da pokušam da nađem zemlje
da pokušam da nađem zemlje
10:09
that are doing exactly what Africa has already done,
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597569
4161
koje rade isto što je Afrika
već uradila,
već uradila,
10:13
and it means that jump from 1,800 years of nothing
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601730
3398
i to znači da preskoče
1800 godina ničega
1800 godina ničega
10:17
to whoof, suddenly shooting through the roof.
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605128
3047
do odjednom neviđenog uspeha.
10:20
India is one of those examples.
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2654
Indija je jedan od tih primera.
10:22
This is Indian growth from 1960 to 2010.
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4119
Ovo je indijski rast od 1960 do 2010.
10:26
Ignore the scale on the bottom for a second.
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614948
2914
Zanemarite skalu na dnu za sekund.
10:29
Actually, for the first 20 years,
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617862
2370
U stvari, za prvih 20 godina,
10:32
the '60s and '70s, India didn't really grow.
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3043
'60-ih i '70-ih, Indija nije
u stvari ostvarivala rast.
u stvari ostvarivala rast.
10:35
It grew at two percent
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623275
2061
Rast je bio 2%
10:37
when population growth was about two and a half.
242
625336
3080
dok je rast stanovništva bio na 2,5%.
10:40
If that's familiar, that's exactly what happened
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628416
2180
Ukoliko vam je to poznato,
to je ono što se desilo
to je ono što se desilo
10:42
in sub-Sahara in the '80s and the '90s.
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630596
2295
u podsaharskoj Africi
'80-ih i '90-ih godina.
'80-ih i '90-ih godina.
10:44
And then something happened in 1980.
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1774
I onda se nešto desilo 1980.
10:46
Boom! India began to explode.
246
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2223
Bum! Indija je eksplodirala.
10:48
It wasn't a "Hindu rate of growth,"
247
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2284
To nije bila "Hindu stopa rasta",
10:51
"democracies can't grow." Actually India could.
248
639172
3056
"demokratije ne mogu da se razvijaju".
Zapravo, Indija je mogla.
Zapravo, Indija je mogla.
10:54
And if I lay sub-Saharan growth
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2806
I ako izložim podsaharski rast
10:57
on top of the Indian growth story,
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645034
2268
preko priče o indijskom razvoju,
10:59
it's remarkably similar.
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647302
2616
neverovatno je sličan.
11:01
Twenty years of not much growth
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649918
2287
Dvadeset godina
ne baš prevelikog rasta
ne baš prevelikog rasta
11:04
and a trend line which is actually telling you
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1554
i trend koji vam zapravo govori
11:05
that sub-Saharan African growth is
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653759
1990
da je podsaharski rast
11:07
slightly better than India.
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655749
2561
malo bolji od indijskog.
11:10
And if I then lay developing Asia on top of this,
256
658310
3435
I ako onda izložim
azijski rast preko ovog,
azijski rast preko ovog,
11:13
I'm saying India is 20 years ahead of Africa,
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2824
ja kažem da je Indija
20 godina ispred Afrike.
20 godina ispred Afrike.
11:16
I'm saying developing Asia is 10 years ahead of India,
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4106
kažem da je Azija u razvoju
10 godina ispred Indije.
10 godina ispred Indije.
11:20
I can draw out some forecasts
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668675
2177
Mogu da dođem
do nekih zaključaka
do nekih zaključaka
11:22
for the next 30 to 40 years
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670852
2320
za narednih 30 do 40 godina
11:25
which I think are better
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673172
2070
koji mislim da su bolji
11:27
than the ones where you're looking backwards.
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675242
2852
od onih gde se gleda unazad.
11:30
And that tells me this:
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2347
I to mi govori sledeće:
11:32
that Africa is going to go
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680441
1782
da će Afrika narasti
11:34
from a $2 trillion economy today
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682223
3037
od ekonomije od 2 biliona danas
11:37
to a $29 trillion economy by 2050.
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685260
4272
do ekonomije od 29 biliona do 2050.
11:41
Now that's bigger than Europe and America
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689532
2008
To je veća ekonomija
od Evrope i Amerike
od Evrope i Amerike
11:43
put together in today's money.
268
691540
3458
zajedno u današnjim novcima.
11:46
Life expectancy is going to go up by 13 years.
269
694998
3920
Životni vek će porasti za 13 godina.
11:50
The population's going to double
270
698918
1738
Stanovništvo će se udvostručiti
11:52
from one billion to two billion,
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700656
1453
od jedne milijarde na dve,
11:54
so household incomes are going to go up sevenfold
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702109
3350
tako da će prihodi domaćinstava
da se usedmostruče
da se usedmostruče
11:57
in the next 35 years.
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705459
2864
u narednih 35 godina.
12:00
And when I present this in Africa --
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708323
3117
I kad ovo prezentujem u Africi -
12:03
Nairobi, Lagos, Accra -- I get one question.
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3804
Najrobi, Lagos, Akra -
postave mi jedno pitanje:
postave mi jedno pitanje:
12:07
"Charlie, why are you so pessimistic?"
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715244
4868
"Čarli, zašto si tako pesimističan?"
12:12
And you know what?
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1843
I znate šta?
12:13
Actually, I think they've got a point.
278
721955
2389
U stvari, mislim da su u pravu.
12:16
Am I really saying that there can be nothing learned,
279
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2472
Da li ja zaista kažem da ništa
ne može da se nauči,
ne može da se nauči,
12:18
yes from the positives in Asia and India,
280
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3284
od svega pozitivnog u Aziji i Indiji,
12:22
but also the negatives?
281
730100
1378
ali isto tako svega negativnog?
12:23
Perhaps Africa can avoid some of the mistakes that have been made.
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731478
2562
Možda Afrika može da izbegne
neke od grešaka koje su već načinjene.
neke od grešaka koje su već načinjene.
12:26
Surely, the technologies that we're talking about here
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3395
Svakako, tehnologije
o kojima pričamo ovde
o kojima pričamo ovde
12:29
this last week,
284
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1609
tokom protekle nedelje,
12:31
surely some of these can perhaps
285
739044
1944
svakako neke od njih
verovatno mogu da
verovatno mogu da
12:32
help Africa grow even faster?
286
740988
2728
pomognu Africi da raste i brže?
12:35
And I think here we can play a role.
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2435
I mislim da mi možemo
da odigramo ulogu ovde.
da odigramo ulogu ovde.
12:38
Because technology does let you help.
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746151
2843
Zato što vam tehnologija zaista
dozvoljava da pomognete.
dozvoljava da pomognete.
12:40
You can go and download
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748994
2139
Možete ići i skinuti s interneta
12:43
some of the great African literature
290
751133
2035
neke od najvećih dela
12:45
from the Internet now.
291
753168
1799
afričke književnosti.
12:46
No, not right now, just 30 seconds.
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754967
2473
Ne, baš sada,
samo za 30 sekundi.
samo za 30 sekundi.
12:49
You can go and buy some of the great tunes.
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2190
Možete da kupite
neku fantastičnu kompoziciju.
neku fantastičnu kompoziciju.
12:51
My iPod's full of them.
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1731
Moj ajpod je ispunjen njima.
12:53
Buy African products.
295
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1690
Kupite afričke proizvode.
12:55
Go on holiday and see for yourself
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763051
1965
Idite na odmor i upoznajte se sami
12:57
the change that's happening.
297
765016
1549
sa promenama koje se dešavaju.
12:58
Invest.
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1405
Investirajte.
12:59
Perhaps hire people, give them the skills
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767970
2126
Možda da zaposlite ljude,
omogućite im da nauče veštine
omogućite im da nauče veštine
13:02
that they can take back to Africa,
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770096
2269
koje će oni poneti sa sobom
nazad u Afriku,
nazad u Afriku,
13:04
and their companies will grow an awful lot faster
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772365
2265
i njihove kompanije
će rasti mnogo brže
će rasti mnogo brže
13:06
than most of ours here in the West.
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2650
nego većina naših na Zapadu.
13:09
And then you and I can help make sure
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777280
4301
I onda vi i ja možemo da učinimo
13:13
that for Africa, the 21st century is their century.
304
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4129
da 21. vek bude vek Afrike.
13:17
Thank you very much.
305
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1810
Hvala vam mnogo.
13:19
(Applause)
306
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4000
(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Charles Robertson - Emerging-markets economistIn "The Fastest Billion," Charles Robertson re-examines the narrative of economic growth in African nations.
Why you should listen
Checking one's assumptions about "Africa" has become a trope -- but it's still important to do, and still surprising. In The Fastest Billion, economist Charles Robertson and his co-authors suggest that behind the stereotyped narrative are some jawdropping indicators of extreme economic and social growth. He and colleagues make the case that Africa is moving away -- quickly -- from the "bottom billion" and "will be the fastest continent to reach the fourth economic age ... of high-income, low-corruption and generally democratic norms." Rich in resources, and powered by young people who are holding leaders to account in new ways, Africa’s economies are now returning some of the highest growth rates on Earth. How will this trend play out?
Robertson, a leading emerging markets specialist, is the global chief economist and head of the macro-strategy unit at Renaissance Capital, where he covers the global economic themes having the greatest impact on emerging markets.
Charles Robertson | Speaker | TED.com