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Dalia Mogahed: The attitudes that sparked Arab Spring
Dalia Mogahed: 点燃阿拉伯之春的态度
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Pollster Dalia Mogahed 分享了一些关于埃及人对于阿拉伯之春的态度的令人意外的数据——主要集中于女性在导致变革中起到的角色。
Dalia Mogahed - Muslim studies scholar
Researcher and pollster Dalia Mogahed is an author, advisor and consultant who studies Muslim communities. Full bio
Researcher and pollster Dalia Mogahed is an author, advisor and consultant who studies Muslim communities. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:17
My talk today is about something
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我今天的演讲的内容
00:19
maybe a couple of you have already heard about.
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也许你们中间的一些人已经听说过了。
00:22
It's called the Arab Spring.
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它就是阿拉伯之春。
00:24
Anyone heard of it?
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有没有人听说过？
00:26
(Applause)
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（鼓掌）
00:29
So in 2011, power shifted,
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在2011年，权力发生了转移，
00:34
from the few to the many,
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从少数人手中到多数人手里，
00:36
from oval offices to central squares,
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从椭圆形办公室转移到了中心广场上，
00:40
from carefully guarded airwaves
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从被严密控制的管道
00:43
to open-source networks.
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到开发的网络。
00:46
But before Tahrir was a global symbol of liberation,
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但是在Tahrir广场成为解放的符号之前，
00:50
there were representative surveys
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已经有有代表性的调查
00:52
already giving people a voice
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给了人们一个表达自己的话语的机会
00:55
in quieter but still powerful ways.
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用一种无声的，但是有力的方法。
00:59
I study Muslim societies around the world at Gallup.
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我在Gallup公司研究世界各地的穆斯林社会。
01:04
Since 2001,
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从2001年开始，
01:06
we've interviewed hundreds of thousands of people --
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我们采访了成千上万的人们——
01:10
young and old, men and women,
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各个年龄的，男的和女的，
01:11
educated and illiterate.
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受过教育的，和没有受过教育的。
01:14
My talk today draws on this research
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我今天的演讲利用这些研究
01:17
to reveal why Arabs rose up
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来揭示为什么阿拉伯人会起来反抗
01:21
and what they want now.
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和他们现在想要什么。
01:24
Now this region's very diverse,
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现在这个地区非常多元化，
01:27
and every country is unique.
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所以每个国家都很独特。
01:29
But those who revolted
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但是那些起来反抗的人们
01:31
shared a common set of grievances
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都有同意的苦难
01:34
and have similar demands today.
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并且有同样的诉求。
01:37
I'm going to focus a lot of my talk on Egypt.
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我会在我的演讲中很大程度上集中讲述埃及。
01:40
It has nothing to do with the fact that I was born there, of course.
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当然，这并不是因为我出生在那里。
01:43
But it's the largest Arab country
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而是因为它是最大的阿拉伯国家
01:47
and it's also one with a great deal of influence.
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而且它有很大的影响力。
01:50
But I'm going to end by widening the lens to the entire region
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但是最后我会把视角放大到整个地区
01:54
to look at the mundane topics
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来讨论更广泛性的话题
01:57
of Arab views of religion and politics
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针对阿拉伯世界的宗教和政治
02:00
and how this impacts women,
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和它们如何影响妇女，
02:03
revealing some surprises along the way.
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这个过程中会讲到一些令人意外的发现。
02:07
So after analyzing mounds of data,
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在分析了成堆的数据之后，
02:11
what we discovered was this:
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我们发现：
02:13
Unemployment and poverty alone
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仅仅是失业率和贫困本身
02:17
did not lead to the Arab revolts of 2011.
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并不是引起2011年大规模阿拉伯世界反抗的唯一原因。
02:21
If an act of desperation by a Tunisian fruit vendor
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如果说一个突尼斯水果商贩的铤而走险
02:24
sparked these revolutions,
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直接导致了这次革命，
02:26
it was the difference between what Arabs experienced
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那么就是阿拉伯人所经历的
02:30
and what they expected
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和他们的期盼之间的差距
02:32
that provided the fuel.
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是这次革命的内因。
02:34
To tell you what I mean,
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为了说明我的意思，
02:36
consider this trend in Egypt.
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请大家考虑在埃及的这种趋势。
02:38
On paper the country was doing great.
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从纸面上看，这个国家的状况非常好。
02:41
In fact, it attracted accolades
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事实上，
02:44
from multinational organizations
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国际组织都对它给予了很高评价
02:46
because of its economic growth.
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因为它的经济发展。
02:48
But under the surface was a very different reality.
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但是表面之下的，是非常不同的现实。
02:51
In 2010, right before the revolution,
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在2010年，就在革命之前，
02:54
even though GDP per capita
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即使从国民生产总值看
02:57
had been growing at five percent for several years,
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已经连续数年以5%的速度增长，
03:00
Egyptians had never felt worse about their lives.
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埃及人从来没有感到生活如此的糟糕。
03:04
Now this is very unusual,
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这非常反常，
03:06
because globally we find that, not surprisingly,
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因为从全球看，我们发现，一点儿也不出意料的是，
03:10
people feel better as their country gets richer.
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当他们的国家变得富裕的时候，人们的感受应该更好。
03:13
And that's because they have better job opportunities
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那是因为他们有更多的工作机会
03:16
and their state offers better social services.
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并且他们的国家也会提供更好的社会服务。
03:20
But it was exactly the opposite in Egypt.
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但是在埃及情况正好相反。
03:22
As the country got more well-off,
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当国家的情况变好的时候，
03:25
unemployment actually rose
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失业率而发是上升的
03:27
and people's satisfaction
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人们的满意度
03:30
with things like housing and education plummeted.
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对于像住房和教育这样的事物直线下降。
03:36
But it wasn't just anger at economic injustice.
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但是这并不仅仅是针对经济不公平的愤怒。
03:40
It was also people's deep longing for freedom.
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这也是人们对于自由的长久的诉求。
03:47
Contrary to the clash of civilizations theory,
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和文明理论相反，
03:52
Arabs didn't despise Western liberty,
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阿拉伯人并不轻视西方式的自由，
03:55
they desired it.
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他们非常渴望它。
03:57
As early as 2001,
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早在2001，
04:00
we asked Arabs, and Muslims in general around the world,
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我们问阿拉伯人，和全球的穆斯林，
04:03
what they admired most about the West.
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关于西方，他们最渴望的是什么。
04:06
Among the most frequent responses
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在最常见的答案中
04:09
was liberty and justice.
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是自由和公正。
04:11
In their own words to an open-ended question
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以他们自己的语言回答一个开放式的问题时，
04:14
we heard, "Their political system is transparent
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我们听到这样的话，“他们的政治体制更透明
04:17
and it's following democracy in its true sense."
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“并且真正实现了民主。”
04:21
Another said it was "liberty and freedom
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另一个答案是：“解放和自由
04:23
and being open-minded with each other."
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和它们的完全相溶。”
04:25
Majorities as high as 90 percent and greater
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高达90%以上的人
04:30
in Egypt, Indonesia and Iran
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埃及，印度尼西亚和伊朗
04:32
told us in 2005
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在2005年告诉我们
04:35
that if they were to write a new constitution
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他们将要起草新的宪法
04:39
for a theoretical new country
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对于 一个理论上的新国家
04:43
that they would guarantee freedom of speech
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它能保证言论自由
04:45
as a fundamental right,
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作为一项基本的自由，
04:47
especially in Egypt.
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尤其是在埃及。
04:49
Eighty-eight percent said moving toward greater democracy
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88%的人说，向着更为民族的方向发展
04:53
would help Muslims progress --
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会有助于穆斯林的发展——
04:56
the highest percentage of any country we surveyed.
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在所有的国家中这是最高的比例了。
05:00
But pressed up against these democratic aspirations
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但是（民众）表达这种民主的诉求
05:04
was a very different day-to-day experience,
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却是另外一种情况，
05:07
especially in Egypt.
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尤其是在埃及。
05:09
While aspiring to democracy the most,
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一方面，对于民主非常的渴求，
05:13
they were the least likely population in the world
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他们又是世界上最不可能
05:17
to say that they had actually voiced their opinion
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向官方表达自己的意见的人群
05:21
to a public official in the last month --
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上个月
05:24
at only four percent.
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这个数据是仅仅4%。
05:27
So while economic development made a few people rich,
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所以一方面，经济发展让一些人先富起来，
05:32
it left many more worse off.
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却让更多的人状况更差。
05:35
As people felt less and less free,
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当人们感到越来越不自由，
05:39
they also felt less and less provided for.
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他们也感受到得到的越来越少。
05:42
So rather than viewing their former regimes
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所以，人们并没有把以前的政权看作是
05:46
as generous if overprotective fathers,
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慷慨的过度保护自己的长辈，
05:50
they viewed them as essentially prison wardens.
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他们把他们视作是监狱的典狱长。
05:54
So now that Egyptians have ended Mubarak's 30-year rule,
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所以现在埃及人终止了穆巴拉克长达30年的统治，
05:58
they potentially could be
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他们可以成为
06:00
an example for the region.
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这个地区的一个榜样。
06:03
If Egypt is to succeed
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如果埃及可以成功地
06:05
at building a society based on the rule of law,
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建立一个法治之上的社会，
06:08
it could be a model.
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它可以成为一个榜样。
06:11
If, however,
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如果，然而
06:12
the core issues that propelled the revolution aren't addressed,
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导致革命的核心问题不能被解决，
06:17
the consequences could be catastrophic --
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后果可能是灾难性的——
06:20
not just for Egypt,
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不仅仅是对埃及，
06:22
but for the entire region.
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而是对整个地区来说。
06:25
The signs don't look good, some have said.
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迹象看起来并不好，有些人说。
06:29
Islamists, not the young liberals that sparked the revolution,
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伊斯兰份子，而不是引起革命的开明派
06:33
won the majority in Parliament.
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赢得了议会的大多数。
06:36
The military council
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军方
06:38
has cracked down on civil society and protests
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已经镇压了平民的抗议
06:42
and the country's economy continues to suffer.
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并且这个国家的经济还在继续遭受打击。
06:45
Evaluating Egypt on this basis alone, however,
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单独从这个基础上考查埃及，而且，
06:50
ignores the real revolution.
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忽视了真正的革命。
06:55
Because Egyptians are more optimistic
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因为埃及人更加乐观
06:57
than they have been in years,
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和过去的数年相比，
06:59
far less divided on religious-secular lines
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宗教差别造成的分离远远比
07:03
than we would think
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我们想象的要小
07:05
and poised for the demands of democracy.
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而且表现出了渴求民主的姿态。
07:08
Whether they support Islamists or liberals,
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不管他们是支持伊斯兰份子，还是开明派，
07:11
Egyptians' priorities for this government are identical,
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埃及人对于政府优先考虑的问题的看法非常一致，
07:15
and they are jobs, stability and education,
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那就是工作，稳定和教育，
07:17
not moral policing.
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并不是道德上的管制。
07:20
But most of all,
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但是归根结底
07:21
for the first time in decades,
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在过去数十年中，首次
07:22
they expect to be active participants, not spectators,
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他们想活跃地成为参与者，而不是旁观者，
07:26
in the affairs of their country.
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在他们国家的事物中。
07:28
I was meeting with a group of newly-elected parliamentarians
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我曾经和一群刚刚当选的议员们见面
07:32
from Egypt and Tunisia
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埃及和突尼斯的，
07:34
a couple of weeks ago.
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在几个周之前。
07:35
And what really struck me about them
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真正使得我对于他们感到惊奇的，
07:38
was that they weren't only optimistic,
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是他们不仅仅乐观，
07:43
but they kind of struck me as nervous,
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他们让我惊奇的对于一个更好的
07:46
for lack of a better word.
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世界的渴求。
07:48
One said to me,
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他们中的一个人对我说，
07:49
"Our people used to gather in cafes to watch football" --
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“我们的人曾经习惯于聚集在咖啡馆看足球比赛”——
07:52
or soccer, as we say in America --
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或者是我们北美叫的所谓英式足球——
07:55
"and now they gather to watch Parliament."
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“现在他们聚集在一起看议会会议。”
07:59
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
08:03
"They're really watching us,
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“他们真的在看我们，
08:05
and we can't help but worry
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我们不由自主的担心
08:09
that we're not going to live up to their expectations."
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我们不能达到他们的期望。”
08:11
And what really struck me
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真正让我震撼的
08:13
is that less than 24 months ago,
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是在不到两年之前，
08:15
it was the people that were nervous
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真正让人们感到紧张的
08:17
about being watched by their government.
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是担心他们被他们的政府监视。
08:20
And the reason that they're expecting a lot
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他们有那么多期待的原因
08:23
is because they have a new-found hope for the future.
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正是因为他们有一个刚刚建立起来的，对于未来的期望。
08:27
So right before the revolution
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所以就在革命发生之前
08:29
we said that Egyptians had never felt worse about their lives,
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我们说，埃及人对于自己的生活从来没有感到如此的糟糕，
08:32
but not only that, they thought their future would be no better.
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但是不仅仅是那样，他们认为他们的未来也不会更好。
08:36
What really changed after the ouster of Mubarak
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当穆巴拉克被赶下台之后，真正发生改变的，
08:40
wasn't that life got easier.
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不是生活变得容易了。
08:41
It actually got harder.
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实际上更困难了。
08:44
But people's expectations for their future
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但是人们对于未来的期许
08:47
went up significantly.
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在明显的变好。
08:48
And this hope, this optimism,
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这种期待，这种乐观，
08:51
endured a year of turbulent transition.
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在一年的动荡中一直在延续着。
08:55
One reason that there's this optimism
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他们如此乐观的一个原因
08:59
is because, contrary to what many people have said,
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是因为，和很多人说的不同，
09:02
most Egyptians think things really have changed in many ways.
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大多数埃及人都认为，事情在很多方面都真得在发生变化。
09:07
So while Egyptians were known
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所以，以前埃及人
09:09
for their single-digit turnout
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参加选举的投票率是个位数
09:13
in elections before the revolution,
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在革命之前，
09:15
the last election had around 70 percent voter turnout --
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上次选举的投票率是在70%左右——
09:19
men and women.
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男人和女人。
09:21
Where scarcely a quarter believed in the honesty of elections in 2010 --
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2010年选举的时候，仅仅有大概25%的人相信选举的可信度——
09:26
I'm surprised it was a quarter --
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我很惊奇是四分之一——
09:28
90 percent thought that this last election was honest.
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90%的人认为上次选举是可信的。
09:32
Now why this matters
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这一点很重要，
09:33
is because we discovered a link
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是因为我们发现了一种联系：
09:36
between people's faith in their democratic process
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在人们对于他们民主进程的信念
09:41
and their faith that oppressed people
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和他们对于被 压迫的人们
09:45
can change their situation
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可以改变他们的处境的这种信念之间
09:47
through peaceful means alone.
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这种改变仅仅是通过和平的方式。
09:52
(Applause)
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（鼓掌）
10:01
Now I know what some of you are thinking.
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现在我知道你们中的一些人在想什么。
10:04
The Egyptian people,
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埃及人，
10:05
and many other Arabs who've revolted and are in transition,
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和其他的那些站起来，处在变革中的阿拉伯人，
10:09
have very high expectations of the government.
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对政府有很高的期许。
10:12
They're just victims of a long-time autocracy,
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他们是长期的独裁统治的受害者，
10:17
expecting a paternal state
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向往着一个父亲般的国家
10:19
to solve all their problems.
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能解决他们所有的问题。
10:22
But this conclusion would ignore
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但是这样的结论忽视了
10:25
a tectonic shift taking place in Egypt
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正在埃及发生的一次上层建筑的变革
10:29
far from the cameras in Tahrir Square.
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而不仅仅是在Tahrir广场摄像机拍摄下的景象。
10:33
And that is Egyptians' elevated expectations
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那就是，埃及人对于他们自己提出了更高
10:36
are placed first on themselves.
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的希望。
10:40
In the country once known for its passive resignation,
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在一个一直以来被认为是非常顺从的国家，
10:44
where, as bad as things got,
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在那儿，事情变得很糟糕，
10:46
only four percent expressed their opinion to a public official,
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只有4%的人向公众的官方表达他们的不满，
10:49
today 90 percent tell us
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今天，90%的人告诉我们
10:52
that if there's a problem in their community,
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如果他们的社会中有问题，
10:55
it's up to them to fix it.
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将由他们来决定解决这些问题。
10:57
(Applause)
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（鼓掌）
11:05
And three-fourths
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四分之三的人
11:07
believe they not only have the responsibility,
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相信他们不仅仅有责任，
11:09
but the power to make change.
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而且有能力做出改变。
11:12
And this empowerment
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这种情况
11:15
also applies to women,
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也发生在女性身上，
11:18
whose role in the revolts
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她们在变革中的角色
11:19
cannot be underestimated.
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不能被低估。
11:21
They were doctors and dissidents,
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她们中有医生，持不同政见者，
11:24
artists and organizers.
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艺术家和组织者。
11:25
A full third of those who braved tanks and tear gas
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多达三分之一的和坦克和催泪弹作斗争的人
11:31
to ask or to demand liberty and justice in Egypt
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争取埃及自由和公正
11:36
were women.
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的是妇女。
11:37
(Applause)
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（鼓掌）
11:43
Now people have raised some real concerns
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现在人们开始认真的关注
11:46
about what the rise of Islamist parties means for women.
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伊斯兰派别的兴起对于妇女意味着什么。
11:49
What we've found about the role of religion in law
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我们发现,关于宗教在法律
11:54
and the role of religion in society
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和社会中的角色的结论
11:56
is that there's no female consensus.
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是妇女的地位的不一致。
11:59
We found that women in one country
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我们发现妇女在一个国家
12:03
look more like the men in that country
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看起来更像是男人在另外一个国家
12:05
than their female counterparts across the border.
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而不是像那个国家里的女性。
12:10
Now what this suggests
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这一点给我们的启示是
12:11
is that how women view religion's role in society
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女性如何看待宗教在社会中的角色
12:15
is shaped more by their own country's culture and context
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更多地是由她们自己的国家的文化和环境塑造的
12:21
than one monolithic view
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而不是由单一的观点
12:23
that religion is simply bad for women.
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这种观点是，宗教就是简单地对女性不利。
12:26
Where women agree, however,
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女性们认为，
12:30
is on their own role,
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她们自己的角色
12:31
and that it must be central and active.
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必须是起到关键作用，并且是主动的。
12:34
And here is where we see the greatest gender difference within a country --
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这是我们看到的在一个国家里，性别的差距最大的地方——
12:39
on the issue of women's rights.
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在女性权利的问题上。
12:42
Now how men feel about women's rights
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现在，女性对于女性权利的感觉
12:44
matters to the future of this region.
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对于这个地区的将来是很重要的。
12:48
Because we discovered a link
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因为我们发现了一种关联
12:50
between men's support for women's employment
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在男性对于女性就业的支持率
12:54
and how many women are actually employed
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和多少妇女实际被雇佣之间
12:57
in professional fields in that country.
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在那个国家的职业领域。
13:00
So the question becomes,
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问题就变成了，
13:02
What drives men's support for women's rights?
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什么导致了男性对于女性权利的支持？
13:06
What about men's views of religion and law?
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男人对于宗教和法律的观点是怎么样的？
13:13
[Does] a man's opinion
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一个人
13:16
of the role of religion in politics
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对于整治中宗教的角色的观点
13:18
shape their view of women's rights?
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是不是塑造他们对于女性权利的看法？
13:22
The answer is no.
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答案是不。
13:23
We found absolutely no correlation,
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我们没有发现任何关联，
13:26
no impact whatsoever,
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无论如何没有任何相互影响
13:28
between these two variables.
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在这两个变量之间。
13:31
What drives men's support for women's employment
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决定男性对于女性就业的支持的
13:34
is men's employment,
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是男人的就业，
13:37
their level of education
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他们受教育的水平
13:40
as well as a high score
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和
13:42
on their country's U.N. Human Development Index.
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联合国人类发展指数的高分数。
13:47
What this means
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这意味着
13:48
is that human development,
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人类的发展
13:51
not secularization,
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而不是把宗教从教育中分离
13:53
is what's key to women's empowerment
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是女性参与的关键
13:56
in the transforming Middle East.
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在中东变革中。
14:00
And the transformation continues.
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这种变革还在继续。
14:02
From Wall Street to Mohammed Mahmoud Street,
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从华尔街到Mohammed Mahmoud大街
14:06
it has never been more important
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理解普通人的理想理想
14:08
to understand the aspirations
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从来没有如此的
14:11
of ordinary people.
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重要过。
14:13
Thank you.
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谢谢。
14:15
(Applause)
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（鼓掌）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Dalia Mogahed - Muslim studies scholarResearcher and pollster Dalia Mogahed is an author, advisor and consultant who studies Muslim communities.
Why you should listen
As director of research at the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding, Dalia Mogahed keeps her finger on the pulse of the Muslim world. She served on Obama’s Advisory Council on Faith-Based and Neighborhood Partnerships in 2009, advising the president on how faith-based organizations can help government solve persistent social problems.
Mogahed is a former director of the Gallup Center for Muslim Studies, where her surveys of Muslim opinion skewered myths and stereotypes while illuminating the varied attitudes of Muslims toward politics, religion, and gender issues. Her 2008 book with John Esposito, Who Speaks for Islam? What a Billion Muslims Really Think, outlines these surprising findings.
Dalia Mogahed | Speaker | TED.com