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Dalia Mogahed: The attitudes that sparked Arab Spring
Dalia Mogahed:引燃阿拉伯之春的民意
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民調員 Dalia Mogahed 與我們分享阿拉伯之春發生的前夕，埃及人民的夢想與希望，並特別討論女性於激發社會改變中所扮演的角色。
Dalia Mogahed - Muslim studies scholar
Researcher and pollster Dalia Mogahed is an author, advisor and consultant who studies Muslim communities. Full bio
Researcher and pollster Dalia Mogahed is an author, advisor and consultant who studies Muslim communities. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:17
My talk today is about something
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我今天的演講主題
00:19
maybe a couple of you have already heard about.
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也許你們之中一些人已經聽說過了，
00:22
It's called the Arab Spring.
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它的名字叫作「阿拉伯之春」。
00:24
Anyone heard of it?
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有人聽說過嗎?
00:26
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
00:29
So in 2011, power shifted,
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在西元2011年，權勢的重心
00:34
from the few to the many,
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由少數轉移至多數，
00:36
from oval offices to central squares,
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自白宮移往市民的中央廣場，
00:40
from carefully guarded airwaves
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由被謹慎看管的廣播頻道
00:43
to open-source networks.
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轉移至開放的社群網路。
00:46
But before Tahrir was a global symbol of liberation,
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但在塔利爾廣場成為國際間自由解放的象徵之前，
00:50
there were representative surveys
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具代表性的民意調查
00:52
already giving people a voice
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已經悄悄但權威性地
00:55
in quieter but still powerful ways.
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為人民發聲。
00:59
I study Muslim societies around the world at Gallup.
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我在蓋洛普 (美國民調機構) 研究世界各地的穆斯林社區。
01:04
Since 2001,
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自2001年，
01:06
we've interviewed hundreds of thousands of people --
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我們已經訪問了數十萬人，
01:10
young and old, men and women,
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老的少的，男性與女性，
01:11
educated and illiterate.
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知識份子與文盲。
01:14
My talk today draws on this research
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今天的演講將引用這些研究結果
01:17
to reveal why Arabs rose up
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來揭發為什麼阿拉伯人民憤而崛起，
01:21
and what they want now.
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以及他們現在到底想得到什麼。
01:24
Now this region's very diverse,
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你要知道這個地區非常多元化，
01:27
and every country is unique.
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而且每一個國家都是獨一無二的。
01:29
But those who revolted
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但是，那些參與革命的人們，
01:31
shared a common set of grievances
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曾懷著共同的怨憤不平，
01:34
and have similar demands today.
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並於今日有著相似的訴求。
01:37
I'm going to focus a lot of my talk on Egypt.
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我將會把演講的重心放在埃及。
01:40
It has nothing to do with the fact that I was born there, of course.
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當然，這跟我在那裡出生的事實毫無關聯。
01:43
But it's the largest Arab country
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它是最大的阿拉伯國家，
01:47
and it's also one with a great deal of influence.
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並擁有極大的影響力。
01:50
But I'm going to end by widening the lens to the entire region
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但在演講結束前我會把鏡頭放大到整個區域，
01:54
to look at the mundane topics
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來探索一些較世俗的課題。
01:57
of Arab views of religion and politics
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像是，阿拉伯人們對宗教與政治的看法，
02:00
and how this impacts women,
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以及這些看法如何影響阿拉伯女性，
02:03
revealing some surprises along the way.
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並於途中揭開一些令人訝異的結果。
02:07
So after analyzing mounds of data,
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所以在分析了如小山般高的資料之後，
02:11
what we discovered was this:
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我們發現了這個結果:
02:13
Unemployment and poverty alone
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失業率上升和人民的窮困
02:17
did not lead to the Arab revolts of 2011.
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並不是引起2011年阿拉伯國家革命的唯一原因。
02:21
If an act of desperation by a Tunisian fruit vendor
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若一位突尼西亞水果販的絕望之行
02:24
sparked these revolutions,
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是引起革命的火花，
02:26
it was the difference between what Arabs experienced
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那麼阿拉伯人所經歷的
02:30
and what they expected
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與他們的期望之間的鴻溝，
02:32
that provided the fuel.
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正是革命延續的燃料。
02:34
To tell you what I mean,
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我來舉個例，
02:36
consider this trend in Egypt.
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想想埃及的這個趨勢:
02:38
On paper the country was doing great.
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表面上這個國家運行得很好。
02:41
In fact, it attracted accolades
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埃及的數據還吸引
02:44
from multinational organizations
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許多國際組織
02:46
because of its economic growth.
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讚賞它的經濟成長。
02:48
But under the surface was a very different reality.
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然而在表面之下的現實卻孑然不同。
02:51
In 2010, right before the revolution,
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在2010年，革命的前夕，
02:54
even though GDP per capita
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雖然人均GDP(國內生產毛額)
02:57
had been growing at five percent for several years,
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已數年以5%的速率成長，
03:00
Egyptians had never felt worse about their lives.
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埃及人卻從來沒有對自己的生活如此悲觀。
03:04
Now this is very unusual,
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這挺奇怪的。
03:06
because globally we find that, not surprisingly,
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因為於國際間我們通常預料，
03:10
people feel better as their country gets richer.
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國家愈富足，人民感覺就愈良好。
03:13
And that's because they have better job opportunities
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這是因為他們擁有更好的工作機會，
03:16
and their state offers better social services.
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而他們的政府也提供更完善的社會福利。
03:20
But it was exactly the opposite in Egypt.
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但在埃及卻不然。
03:22
As the country got more well-off,
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隨著國家愈來愈富有，
03:25
unemployment actually rose
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失業率竟然上升，
03:27
and people's satisfaction
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而人民對於生活和教育等的品質，
03:30
with things like housing and education plummeted.
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滿意度直直下滑。
03:36
But it wasn't just anger at economic injustice.
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但不只是對於經濟正義之不公的怨憤，
03:40
It was also people's deep longing for freedom.
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人民對自由的深深渴望也同時促進革命。
03:47
Contrary to the clash of civilizations theory,
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不同於文明衝突論的觀點，
03:52
Arabs didn't despise Western liberty,
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阿拉伯人並不厭恨西方的自由主義，
03:55
they desired it.
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他們渴望自由。
03:57
As early as 2001,
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早於2001年，
04:00
we asked Arabs, and Muslims in general around the world,
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我們就問世界各地的阿拉伯人和穆斯林，
04:03
what they admired most about the West.
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他們對西方社會最讚賞的是什麼。
04:06
Among the most frequent responses
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我們最常得到的答案之一，
04:09
was liberty and justice.
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就是自由與正義。
04:11
In their own words to an open-ended question
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我們聽見他們如此回答這個開放式的問題：
04:14
we heard, "Their political system is transparent
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「他們(西方國家)的政治系統很透明，
04:17
and it's following democracy in its true sense."
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並真實地實現民主。」
04:21
Another said it was "liberty and freedom
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另一個人回答「擁有自由，
04:23
and being open-minded with each other."
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以及能夠以開放的心胸對待彼此。」
04:25
Majorities as high as 90 percent and greater
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甚至有高達90%或更多的民眾，
04:30
in Egypt, Indonesia and Iran
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來自於埃及、印尼、和伊朗，
04:32
told us in 2005
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於2005年就告訴我們，
04:35
that if they were to write a new constitution
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若他們要為一個假想的新國度，
04:39
for a theoretical new country
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寫一份新憲法，
04:43
that they would guarantee freedom of speech
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他們會將視言論自由為人民的基本權利
04:45
as a fundamental right,
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並加以保障。
04:47
especially in Egypt.
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這在埃及尤其顯著。
04:49
Eighty-eight percent said moving toward greater democracy
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88%的人認為增進民主
04:53
would help Muslims progress --
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將有助於穆斯林教徒發展。
04:56
the highest percentage of any country we surveyed.
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這是我們所訪問的國家之中，百分比最高的。
05:00
But pressed up against these democratic aspirations
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然而人們日常生活的經驗
05:04
was a very different day-to-day experience,
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和這些民主志願形成強烈對比。
05:07
especially in Egypt.
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尤其是在埃及。
05:09
While aspiring to democracy the most,
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雖然他們是最嚮往民主的族群，
05:13
they were the least likely population in the world
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但他們卻是全世界最不可能
05:17
to say that they had actually voiced their opinion
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於調查中回答說自己曾在最近一個月
05:21
to a public official in the last month --
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對公職人員表達看法的族群。
05:24
at only four percent.
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僅有4%。
05:27
So while economic development made a few people rich,
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所以經濟發展讓少數人富有的同時，
05:32
it left many more worse off.
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卻使多數人生活情況更糟。
05:35
As people felt less and less free,
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隨著人民感到愈來愈不自由，
05:39
they also felt less and less provided for.
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他們也同時感受經濟愈來愈不穩定。
05:42
So rather than viewing their former regimes
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以致於他們對當時政權的看法，
05:46
as generous if overprotective fathers,
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並不是如慷慨但過分保護的嚴父，
05:50
they viewed them as essentially prison wardens.
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而實際是像獄卒一般。
05:54
So now that Egyptians have ended Mubarak's 30-year rule,
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如今埃及人成功地結束穆巴拉克三十年的獨裁，
05:58
they potentially could be
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他們有機會成為
06:00
an example for the region.
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整個地區的模範。
06:03
If Egypt is to succeed
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倘若埃及成功地
06:05
at building a society based on the rule of law,
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組織一個基於法治的新社會，
06:08
it could be a model.
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它有可能成為一個範例。
06:11
If, however,
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但是，
06:12
the core issues that propelled the revolution aren't addressed,
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如果那些激起革命的核心問題並沒有受到重視的話，
06:17
the consequences could be catastrophic --
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將會引發災難性的後果。
06:20
not just for Egypt,
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而且不只是對於埃及，
06:22
but for the entire region.
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而是整個地區。
06:25
The signs don't look good, some have said.
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有些人說，現在的跡象並不看好。
06:29
Islamists, not the young liberals that sparked the revolution,
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伊斯蘭主義者，而不是那些引起革命的年輕自由主義份子，
06:33
won the majority in Parliament.
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贏得了議會的多數席位。
06:36
The military council
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軍事委員組織
06:38
has cracked down on civil society and protests
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已嚴格鎮壓民間社會及抗議行動。
06:42
and the country's economy continues to suffer.
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而埃及的經濟仍持續受創。
06:45
Evaluating Egypt on this basis alone, however,
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但單靠這些依據衡量埃及的現況，
06:50
ignores the real revolution.
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並沒有考慮到真正的革命結果。
06:55
Because Egyptians are more optimistic
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因為現在的埃及人民比起從前
06:57
than they have been in years,
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要樂觀多了。
06:59
far less divided on religious-secular lines
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他們看待宗教的隔閡，
07:03
than we would think
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比我們想像的要和睦多了，
07:05
and poised for the demands of democracy.
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並且認真地迎接民主的種種責任。
07:08
Whether they support Islamists or liberals,
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不管他們支持伊斯蘭主義者或是自由主義者，
07:11
Egyptians' priorities for this government are identical,
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埃及人對這個政府的主要期望都一模一樣:
07:15
and they are jobs, stability and education,
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要工作、穩定政局、和教育，
07:17
not moral policing.
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而不是道德監控。
07:20
But most of all,
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最重要的昰，
07:21
for the first time in decades,
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於數十年來，
07:22
they expect to be active participants, not spectators,
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他們第一次期望成為國家政治中主動的參與者，
07:26
in the affairs of their country.
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而不是觀眾。
07:28
I was meeting with a group of newly-elected parliamentarians
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我幾星期前和一些埃及和突尼西亞
07:32
from Egypt and Tunisia
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新勝選的議員
07:34
a couple of weeks ago.
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一起會面。
07:35
And what really struck me about them
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他們引起我注意的在於，
07:38
was that they weren't only optimistic,
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他們不只是樂觀，
07:43
but they kind of struck me as nervous,
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他們在我眼中看起來有些緊張，
07:46
for lack of a better word.
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我不知該如何形容得更好。
07:48
One said to me,
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其中一人對我說:
07:49
"Our people used to gather in cafes to watch football" --
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「我們的人民以前都一起在酒館看足球(football)」
07:52
or soccer, as we say in America --
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-- 就是我們美國人說的soccer --
07:55
"and now they gather to watch Parliament."
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「而現在他們都聚在一塊看議會。」
07:59
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
08:03
"They're really watching us,
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「他們其實是在看著我們，
08:05
and we can't help but worry
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而我們不自禁擔心，
08:09
that we're not going to live up to their expectations."
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會不會沒有辦法滿足他們的期待。」
08:11
And what really struck me
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引起我深深共鳴的是，
08:13
is that less than 24 months ago,
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不到兩年前，
08:15
it was the people that were nervous
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是人民感到緊張，
08:17
about being watched by their government.
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害怕被政府監控。
08:20
And the reason that they're expecting a lot
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而他們現在期望很高的原因是
08:23
is because they have a new-found hope for the future.
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因為他們對於未來有著新的希望。
08:27
So right before the revolution
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我之前說，在革命發生前夕
08:29
we said that Egyptians had never felt worse about their lives,
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埃及人對他們的生活感觀是有史以來最差的，
08:32
but not only that, they thought their future would be no better.
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並認為他們的未來並不可能過得更好。
08:36
What really changed after the ouster of Mubarak
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穆巴拉克下台所帶來的真正改變，
08:40
wasn't that life got easier.
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並不是使人民生活變得輕鬆，
08:41
It actually got harder.
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事實上人民的生活反而更艱辛。
08:44
But people's expectations for their future
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而是人們對於未來的期望，
08:47
went up significantly.
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顯著提升。
08:48
And this hope, this optimism,
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這充滿希望和樂觀的態度，
08:51
endured a year of turbulent transition.
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克服了這一年以來動盪的過渡時期。
08:55
One reason that there's this optimism
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而這樂觀態度背後的原因之一
08:59
is because, contrary to what many people have said,
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是因為，相反於許多人所說的，
09:02
most Egyptians think things really have changed in many ways.
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多數的埃及人真正相信他們的世界有了許多改變。
09:07
So while Egyptians were known
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即使我們知道埃及人
09:09
for their single-digit turnout
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於革命前的選舉
09:13
in elections before the revolution,
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投票率僅有個位數。
09:15
the last election had around 70 percent voter turnout --
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最近一次的選舉投票率高達70%，
09:19
men and women.
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男性與女性共同參與。
09:21
Where scarcely a quarter believed in the honesty of elections in 2010 --
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在2010年的選舉中，不到四分之一的人相信選舉是公正的
09:26
I'm surprised it was a quarter --
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-- 我其實覺得有四分之一已挺令人訝異了 --
09:28
90 percent thought that this last election was honest.
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相較之下，90%的人民認為最近這一次選舉是公正誠實的。
09:32
Now why this matters
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為甚麼這如此重要?
09:33
is because we discovered a link
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因為我們發現
09:36
between people's faith in their democratic process
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人民對於民主程序的信任
09:41
and their faith that oppressed people
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和他們對於以和平的方式
09:45
can change their situation
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就能改變受欺壓的人民生活的牢固信念，
09:47
through peaceful means alone.
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環環相扣。
09:52
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
10:01
Now I know what some of you are thinking.
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然而我知道你們心裡都在想些什麼。
10:04
The Egyptian people,
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埃及人民
10:05
and many other Arabs who've revolted and are in transition,
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以及其他參與革命的阿拉伯人正在過渡時期，
10:09
have very high expectations of the government.
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對政府有極高的期許。
10:12
They're just victims of a long-time autocracy,
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他們僅是長久以來獨裁政權的受害者，
10:17
expecting a paternal state
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期待著國家
10:19
to solve all their problems.
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如褓母般地解決他們所有的難題。
10:22
But this conclusion would ignore
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但是如此的結論卻忽略
10:25
a tectonic shift taking place in Egypt
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發生在埃及的社會構造轉變。
10:29
far from the cameras in Tahrir Square.
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這些改變並不為塔利爾廣場中的攝影機所捕捉。
10:33
And that is Egyptians' elevated expectations
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這正是埃及人民所提高的期許，
10:36
are placed first on themselves.
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首先是針對自己。
10:40
In the country once known for its passive resignation,
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這個國家的人們曾以被動屈服聞名，
10:44
where, as bad as things got,
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即使情況再糟，
10:46
only four percent expressed their opinion to a public official,
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也僅有4%的人會向公職人員反應。
10:49
today 90 percent tell us
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今日90%的民眾向我們說，
10:52
that if there's a problem in their community,
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他們的社區若是出了問題
10:55
it's up to them to fix it.
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他們所有人都有責任解決。
10:57
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
11:05
And three-fourths
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而且，三分之四的民眾
11:07
believe they not only have the responsibility,
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相信他們不只有責任
11:09
but the power to make change.
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還有能力，來引起這些改變。
11:12
And this empowerment
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這支強心劑作用的對象
11:15
also applies to women,
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也包含阿拉伯女性。
11:18
whose role in the revolts
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她們在革命中的地位，
11:19
cannot be underestimated.
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可不容忽視。
11:21
They were doctors and dissidents,
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她們有些是醫生和異議者，
11:24
artists and organizers.
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藝術家和總籌。
11:25
A full third of those who braved tanks and tear gas
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在那些為了埃及追求自由與正義
11:31
to ask or to demand liberty and justice in Egypt
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勇敢面對坦克車以及催淚瓦斯的人民中，
11:36
were women.
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有三分之一是女性。
11:37
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
11:43
Now people have raised some real concerns
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最近有些人提出實質的顧慮，
11:46
about what the rise of Islamist parties means for women.
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擔憂伊斯蘭主義政黨的崛起對於女性的影響。
11:49
What we've found about the role of religion in law
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我們發現的昰，針對宗教於法律的地位
11:54
and the role of religion in society
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以及宗教在社會上的角色這個問題，
11:56
is that there's no female consensus.
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於女性中並無共識。
11:59
We found that women in one country
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我們發現一個國家中女性的看法，
12:03
look more like the men in that country
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比較類似該國家的男性，
12:05
than their female counterparts across the border.
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而與鄰國的女性想法歧異。
12:10
Now what this suggests
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這告訴我們，
12:11
is that how women view religion's role in society
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女性如何看待宗教信仰於社會中扮演的角色
12:15
is shaped more by their own country's culture and context
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會受他們國家的文化現況影響，
12:21
than one monolithic view
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而不是單一化地認為，
12:23
that religion is simply bad for women.
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宗教對於女性是不利的。
12:26
Where women agree, however,
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但是多數的女性都同意，
12:30
is on their own role,
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他們自己所扮演的角色
12:31
and that it must be central and active.
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必須是積極並有重要性的。
12:34
And here is where we see the greatest gender difference within a country --
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而我們就是在女性權益這塊，看到同一國家中
12:39
on the issue of women's rights.
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兩性看法的最大差異。
12:42
Now how men feel about women's rights
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而男性如何看待女權，
12:44
matters to the future of this region.
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將影響這個地區的未來。
12:48
Because we discovered a link
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因為我們發現，
12:50
between men's support for women's employment
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男性對女性工作權的支持度
12:54
and how many women are actually employed
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和女性於專業領域的就業率
12:57
in professional fields in that country.
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是緊緊相關的。
13:00
So the question becomes,
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所以問題變成，
13:02
What drives men's support for women's rights?
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是什麼因素使男性支持女性權益?
13:06
What about men's views of religion and law?
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和男性對於宗教和法律的看法有關嗎?
13:13
[Does] a man's opinion
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男人對於
13:16
of the role of religion in politics
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宗教於政治中扮演的角色的看法，
13:18
shape their view of women's rights?
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會影響他們對女性權益的意見嗎?
13:22
The answer is no.
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答案是不會。
13:23
We found absolutely no correlation,
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我們在這兩個因子間，
13:26
no impact whatsoever,
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找不出任何關聯
13:28
between these two variables.
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或任何影響。
13:31
What drives men's support for women's employment
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影響男性對於女性就業的支持度
13:34
is men's employment,
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其實是男性就業率、
13:37
their level of education
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他們的教育程度、
13:40
as well as a high score
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以及他們國家
13:42
on their country's U.N. Human Development Index.
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是否於聯合國人類發展指數(HDI)獲得高分。
13:47
What this means
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意思是
13:48
is that human development,
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人類發展，
13:51
not secularization,
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而不是去宗教化，
13:53
is what's key to women's empowerment
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才是在瞬息萬變的中東地區
13:56
in the transforming Middle East.
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增進女性權利的關鍵。
14:00
And the transformation continues.
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這個蛻變會持續延燒。
14:02
From Wall Street to Mohammed Mahmoud Street,
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自華爾街至Mohammed Mahmoud街(開羅街名)，
14:06
it has never been more important
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現今最重要不過的事，
14:08
to understand the aspirations
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就是了解普通百姓
14:11
of ordinary people.
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心中的願望。
14:13
Thank you.
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謝謝。
14:15
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Dalia Mogahed - Muslim studies scholarResearcher and pollster Dalia Mogahed is an author, advisor and consultant who studies Muslim communities.
Why you should listen
As director of research at the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding, Dalia Mogahed keeps her finger on the pulse of the Muslim world. She served on Obama’s Advisory Council on Faith-Based and Neighborhood Partnerships in 2009, advising the president on how faith-based organizations can help government solve persistent social problems.
Mogahed is a former director of the Gallup Center for Muslim Studies, where her surveys of Muslim opinion skewered myths and stereotypes while illuminating the varied attitudes of Muslims toward politics, religion, and gender issues. Her 2008 book with John Esposito, Who Speaks for Islam? What a Billion Muslims Really Think, outlines these surprising findings.
Dalia Mogahed | Speaker | TED.com