ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Adam Davidson - Journalist
Adam Davidson is the co-host and co-creator of "Planet Money," a weekly podcast and radio feature about the economy.

Why you should listen

Adam Davidson is co-founder and co-host of Planet Money, a co-production of NPR and This American Life. He also writes the weekly "It's the Economy" column for the New York Times Magazine. In two weekly podcasts, a blog, and regular features on Morning Edition, All Things Considered and This American Life, Planet Money helps listeners understand how dramatic economic change is impacting their lives. Planet Money also proves, every day, that substantive, intelligent economic reporting can be funny, engaging, and accessible to the non-expert.

His radio documentary on the housing crisis, "The Giant Pool of Money," which he co-reported and produced with Alex Blumberg, was named one of the top ten works of journalism of the decade by the Arthur L. Carter Journalism Institute at New York University. It was widely recognized as the clearest and most entertaining explanation of the roots of the financial crisis in any media. Davidson and Blumberg took the lessons they learned crafting "The Giant Pool of Money" to create Planet Money.

Before Planet Money, Davidson was International Business and Economics Correspondent for NPR. He traveled around the world to cover the global economy and pitched in during crises, such as reporting from Indonesia's Banda Aceh just after the tsunami, New Orleans post-Katrina, and Paris during the youth riots. Prior to coming to NPR, Davidson was Middle East correspondent for PRI's Marketplace. He spent a year in Baghdad, Iraq, from 2003 to 2004, producing award-winning reports on corruption in the US occupation.

More profile about the speaker
Adam Davidson | Speaker | TED.com
TEDSalon NY2012

Adam Davidson: What we learned from teetering on the fiscal cliff

亚当 戴维森:我们从财政悬崖边学到了什么

Filmed:
811,545 views

2012年年底,美国的政治体制受困于,明年的“财政悬崖” - 只能通过两党的协议才能解决预算僵局。 (世界都在关注着)亚当·戴维森,“金钱星球”的联合创办人,分享令人惊讶的数据,显示“财政悬崖”可能被如何解决。
- Journalist
Adam Davidson is the co-host and co-creator of "Planet Money," a weekly podcast and radio feature about the economy. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:17
So a friend朋友 of mine who's谁是 a political政治 scientist科学家,
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我有个朋友是政治学家,
00:19
he told me several一些 months个月 ago
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他几个月前确切地告诉我
00:21
exactly究竟 what this month would be like.
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本月会演哪出戏。
00:23
He said, you know, there's this fiscal cliff悬崖 coming未来,
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他说,会有财政悬崖问题降临,
00:26
it's going to come at the beginning开始 of 2013.
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发生在2013年初。
00:29
Both parties派对 absolutely绝对 need to resolve解决 it,
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两党绝对需要解决这个问题,
00:32
but neither也不 party派对 wants to be seen看到 as the first to resolve解决 it.
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但是两党都不想做第一个吃螃蟹的人。
00:35
Neither也不 party派对 has any incentive激励 to solve解决 it a second第二 before it's due应有,
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两党都没有在问题到期前,解决问题的动力,
00:39
so he said, December十二月, you're just going to see lots of
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他说,在十二月,你会看到
00:42
angry愤怒 negotiations谈判, negotiations谈判 breaking破坏 apart距离,
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怒气冲冲的协商,协商破裂,
00:45
reports报告 of phone电话 calls电话 that aren't going well,
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和各种谈判不顺的报导,
00:48
people saying nothing's什么是 happening事件 at all,
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人们说什么都没有发生
00:50
and then sometime某时 around Christmas圣诞 or New Year's年份,
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然后到圣诞结或新年前后,
00:53
we're going to hear, "Okay, they resolved解决 everything."
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我们会听说:“Okay,两党解决了所有问题。”
00:55
He told me that a few少数 months个月 ago. He said he's 98 percent百分 positive they're going to resolve解决 it,
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他几个月前告诉我这些。他说,他有98%的信心,两党会解决这个问题。
01:00
and I got an email电子邮件 from him today今天 saying, all right,
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今天我收到他的一封Email,他说
01:02
we're basically基本上 on track跟踪, but now I'm 80 percent百分 positive
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我们基本步入正轨,但现在他有80%的信心
01:06
that they're going to resolve解决 it.
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两党会解决这个问题。
01:08
And it made制作 me think. I love studying研究
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这促使我思考。我爱研究
01:10
these moments瞬间 in American美国 history历史
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美国历史的关键时刻
01:12
when there was this frenzy发狂 of partisan党派 anger愤怒,
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当有这种狂热的党派愤怒的情况下,
01:16
that the economy经济 was on the verge边缘 of total collapse坍方.
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经济面临崩溃边缘的时刻。
01:19
The most famous著名 early battle战斗 was Alexander亚历山大 Hamilton汉密尔顿
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早期最著名的此类论战是亚历山大·汉密尔顿
01:24
and Thomas托马斯 Jefferson杰斐逊 over what the dollar美元 would be
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和托马斯·杰斐逊关于美元地位
01:27
and how it would be backed已备份 up, with Alexander亚历山大 Hamilton汉密尔顿
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以及如何支撑美元地位的争论,
01:30
saying, "We need a central中央 bank银行, the First Bank银行 of the United联合的 States状态,
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亚历山大·汉密尔顿说:“我们要有中央银行,美利坚第一银行,
01:33
or else其他 the dollar美元 will have no value.
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否则,美元就没有价值。
01:35
This economy经济 won't惯于 work,"
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这种经济就不会运转,”
01:36
and Thomas托马斯 Jefferson杰斐逊 saying, "The people won't惯于 trust相信 that.
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托马斯·斐逊说:“人们不会信任它的。
01:39
They just fought战斗 off a king国王. They're not going to accept接受 some central中央 authority权威."
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他们刚赶走一个国王。他们不会再接受中央集权了。”
01:42
This battle战斗 defined定义 the first 150 years年份 of the U.S. economy经济,
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这场论战决定了美国建国头150年的经济发展,
01:48
and at every一切 moment时刻, different不同 partisans游击队 saying,
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每当,有不同党派的人说:
01:52
"Oh my God, the economy's经济的 about to collapse坍方,"
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“老天,经济要崩溃了,”
01:54
and the rest休息 of us just going about, spending开支 our bucks雄鹿
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我们中的其他人就会赶快出去,
01:56
on whatever随你 it is we wanted to buy购买.
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花美元购买我们想要的商品。
01:59
To give you a quick primer底漆 on where we are,
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给您一个简明的当前形势图,
02:02
a quick refresher复习 on where we are.
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快速补习一下当前形势。
02:04
So the fiscal cliff悬崖, I was told
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关于财政悬崖这个叫法,有人告诉我
02:06
that that's too partisan党派 a thing to say,
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那是党派之争的代名词,
02:09
although虽然 I can't remember记得 which哪一个 party派对 it's supporting支持 or attacking进攻.
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尽管我不记得到底哪派支持,哪派反对。
02:12
People say we should call it the fiscal slope,
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人们说我们应该叫它财政斜坡,
02:14
or we should call it an austerity简朴 crisis危机,
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或者我们应该称它为财政紧缩危机,
02:16
but then other people say, no, that's even more partisan党派.
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不过还有人说,这更凸显了党派色彩。
02:19
So I just call it the self-imposed自我强加, self-destructive自我毁灭
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所以我就称它为——咎由自取的,解决一个不可避免的问题的,
02:22
arbitrary随意 deadline截止日期 about resolving解析 an inevitable必然 problem问题.
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武断的期限。
02:26
And this is what the inevitable必然 problem问题 looks容貌 like.
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这就是“不可避免的问题”的图示。
02:30
So this is a projection投影 of U.S. debt债务 as a percentage百分比
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这就是美国债务占经济总体(GDP)的
02:34
of our overall总体 economy经济, of GDPGDP.
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百分比。
02:37
The light blue蓝色 dotted line线 represents代表
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浅蓝的虚线代表
02:40
the Congressional国会 Budget预算 Office's办公室 best最好 guess猜测
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国会预算办公室最好的猜想
02:42
of what will happen发生 if Congress国会 really doesn't do anything,
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也就是,如果国会不采取行动的话,
02:46
and as you can see, sometime某时 around 2027,
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如您所见,到2027年,
02:50
we reach达到 Greek希腊语 levels水平 of debt债务,
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我们就会达到希腊的债务水平,
02:52
somewhere某处 around 130 percent百分 of GDPGDP,
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也就是债务占GDP,百分之130,
02:55
which哪一个 tells告诉 you that some time in the next下一个 20 years年份,
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此图说明了未来20年,
02:58
if Congress国会 does absolutely绝对 nothing,
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如果国会真的不采取任何对策,
03:01
we're going to hit击中 a moment时刻 where the world's世界 investors投资者,
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我们就会达到一个临界点,全世界的投资家
03:04
the world's世界 bond buyers买家, are going to say,
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全世界的债券买家,就会说,
03:06
"We don't trust相信 America美国 anymore. We're not going to lend them any money,
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“我们不信任美国了,我们不会再借给他们钱了,
03:09
except at really high interest利益 rates利率."
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除非有很高的贷款利率。”
03:11
And at that moment时刻 our economy经济 collapses崩溃.
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在那个临界点,我们的经济会崩溃。
03:14
But remember记得, Greece希腊 is there today今天.
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不过记住,这是希腊今天的水平。
03:15
We're there in 20 years年份. We have lots and lots of time
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我们还有20年时间呢。我们有大把大把的时间
03:19
to avoid避免 that crisis危机,
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避免危机发生,
03:22
and the fiscal cliff悬崖 was just one more attempt尝试
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财政悬崖只是逼迫
03:25
at trying to force the two sides双方 to resolve解决 the crisis危机.
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两党解决危机的再一次尝试。
03:29
Here's这里的 another另一个 way to look at exactly究竟 the same相同 problem问题.
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此图是从另一个角度解读同样的问题。
03:32
The dark黑暗 blue蓝色 line线 is how much the government政府 spends.
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深蓝线代表政府的支出。
03:35
The light blue蓝色 line线 is how much the government政府 gets得到 in.
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浅蓝线代表政府的收入。
03:39
And as you can see, for most of recent最近 history历史,
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如您所见,近几十年
03:41
except for a brief简要 period, we have consistently始终如一 spent花费
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除了一个短暂的时期,国家支出
03:45
more than we take in. Thus从而 the national国民 debt债务.
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一直高于国家收入。这就是国家债务。
03:48
But as you can also see, projected预计 going forward前锋,
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如您所见,预计未来
03:52
the gap间隙 widens扩大 a bit and raises加薪 a bit,
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收支鸿沟会更宽更高些,
03:55
and this graph图形 is only through通过 2021.
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此图截止到2021年。
03:57
It gets得到 really, really ugly丑陋 out towards 2030.
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如图所示,到2030年收支差距会非常大。
04:01
And this graph图形 sort分类 of sums总和 up what the problem问题 is.
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此图总结了问题的实质。
04:05
The Democrats民主党, they say, well, this isn't a big deal合同.
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民主党人会说,这没什么大不了的。
04:08
We can just raise提高 taxes a bit and close that gap间隙,
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我们可以增税,来消解这个鸿沟,
04:12
especially特别 if we raise提高 taxes on the rich丰富.
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特别的要提高富人的税率。
04:14
The Republicans共和党人 say, hey, no, no, we've我们已经 got a better idea理念.
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共和党人会说,不,不,我们有更好的办法。
04:17
Why don't we lower降低 both lines线?
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为什么我不同时压缩支出和税率呢?
04:19
Why don't we lower降低 government政府 spending开支 and lower降低 government政府 taxes,
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为什么我们不压缩政府支出的同时压缩政府的税率,
04:22
and then we'll be on an even more favorable有利
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那样,我们就可以得到一个更有利的
04:26
long-term长期 deficit赤字 trajectory弹道?
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长期的赤字曲线吗?
04:28
And behind背后 this powerful强大 disagreement异议 between之间
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在关于如何平衡收支的
04:33
how to close that gap间隙,
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巨大分歧后面,
04:35
there's the worst最差 kind of cynical愤世嫉俗的 party派对 politics政治,
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有最糟糕的愤世嫉俗的党派政治,
04:38
the worst最差 kind of insider内幕 baseball棒球, lobbying游说, all of that stuff东东,
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最糟糕的内幕人士,游说,所有人,
04:44
but there's also this powerfully有力 interesting有趣,
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不过同样还是有强大的有趣地方,
04:48
respectful尊敬的 disagreement异议 between之间
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尊重两种不同经济哲学之间的分歧。
04:50
two fundamentally从根本上 different不同 economic经济 philosophies哲学.
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尊重两种不同经济哲学之间的分歧。
04:54
And I like to think, when I picture图片 how Republicans共和党人
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我喜欢思考,当我想象共和党人
04:59
see the economy经济, what I picture图片 is just some amazingly令人惊讶
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如何看待经济,我想到的是
05:04
well-engineered精心设计的 machine, some perfect完善 machine.
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精密运转的机器,完美的机器。
05:07
Unfortunately不幸, I picture图片 it made制作 in Germany德国 or Japan日本,
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不幸的是,我构建出了德国或日本的图景,
05:11
but this amazing惊人 machine that's constantly经常 scouring
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这个神奇的机器,不断地消磨
05:14
every一切 bit of human人的 endeavor努力 and taking服用 resources资源,
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每一个人的努力,并攫取资源,
05:19
money, labor劳动, capital首都, machinery机械,
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资金,劳动力,资本,机构,
05:22
away from the least最小 productive生产的 parts部分 and towards the more productive生产的 parts部分,
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从低产出部分转到高产出部分,
05:26
and while this might威力 cause原因 temporary临时 dislocation错位,
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虽然这可能导致暂时的混乱,
05:28
what it does is it builds建立 up the more productive生产的 areas
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它所作的就是构建高产出领域
05:31
and lets让我们 the less productive生产的 areas fade褪色 away and die,
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让低产出领域消亡,
05:34
and as a result结果 the whole整个 system系统 is so much more efficient高效,
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从而使整个系统更有效率,
05:37
so much richer更丰富 for everybody每个人.
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每个人变得更富有。
05:39
And this view视图 generally通常 believes相信 that there is a role角色 for government政府,
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这种观点,认为政府要扮演一个角色,
05:43
a small role角色, to set the rules规则 so people aren't lying说谎
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一个小角色,设置规范,这样人们就不会互欺
05:46
and cheating作弊 and hurting伤害 each other,
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互骗,互相伤害了。
05:48
maybe, you know, have a police警察 force and a fire department
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比如说,可以有一支警察队伍,一个消防部门,一支军队,
05:51
and an army军队, but to have a very limited有限 reach达到
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不过(这个政府)只能非常有限地
05:54
into the mechanisms机制 of this machinery机械.
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干预经济“机器”的运行。
05:57
And when I picture图片 how Democrats民主党 and Democratic-leaning民主党斜塔
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当我如民主党人和民主党派经济学家一样
06:01
economists经济学家 picture图片 this economy经济,
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构想整个经济,
06:04
most Democratic民主的 economists经济学家 are, you know, they're capitalists资本家,
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大多数民主党派经济学家是资本主义者,
06:07
they believe, yes, that's a good system系统 a lot of the time.
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他们相信,一个好系统需要时间。
06:10
It's good to let markets市场 move移动 resources资源 to their more productive生产的 use.
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让市场配置资源到更高产出的部分去。
06:14
But that system系统 has tons of problems问题.
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不过这个系统有成堆的问题。
06:18
Wealth财富 piles up in the wrong错误 places地方.
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财富积累在错误的地方。
06:20
Wealth财富 is ripped撕开 away from people who shouldn't不能 be called unproductive非生产性.
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财富被从不应被称为低产者的人手中夺走。
06:24
That's not going to create创建 an equitable公平, fair公平 society社会.
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这不会产生出公正公平的社会。
06:27
That machine doesn't care关心 about the environment环境,
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这部经济机器不考虑环境,
06:30
about racism种族主义, about all these issues问题
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种族,等等问题,
06:32
that make this life worse更差 for all of us,
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使我们活的更差,
06:35
and so the government政府 does have a role角色 to take resources资源
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所以政府确需扮演一个角色,
06:38
from more productive生产的 uses使用, or from richer更丰富 sources来源,
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从更高产的,或更富有者手里
06:41
and give them to other sources来源.
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拿出一部分资源给其他人。
06:44
And when you think about the economy经济 through通过 these two different不同 lenses镜头,
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当您从以上两个不同角度考虑问题时,
06:49
you understand理解 why this crisis危机 is so hard to solve解决,
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您就会明白这个危机为什么这么难解决,
06:53
because the worse更差 the crisis危机 gets得到, the higher更高 the stakes赌注 are,
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因为危机越深,赌注越高,
06:57
the more each side thinks they know the answer回答
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每当一方人越认为他们知道答案
07:00
and the other side is just going to ruin废墟 everything.
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而另一方人只会破坏。
07:03
And I can get really despairing绝望. I've spent花费 a lot
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我深感失望。过去几年我花了很多精力,
07:06
of the last few少数 years年份 really depressed郁闷 about this,
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真的感到很沮丧,
07:09
until直到 this year, I learned学到了 something that
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直到今年,我知道了一些东西
07:12
I felt really excited兴奋 about. I feel like it's really good news新闻,
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让我感到很兴奋。我感到它真的很好
07:16
and it's so shocking触目惊心, I don't like saying it, because I think
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很震撼,我不想说出来,因为我想
07:19
people won't惯于 believe me.
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人们不会相信我的。
07:20
But here's这里的 what I learned学到了.
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但这就是我学到的。
07:21
The American美国 people, taken采取 as a whole整个,
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作为一个整体,美国人民,
07:24
when it comes to these issues问题, to fiscal issues问题,
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面对这些财政问题时,
07:27
are moderate中等, pragmatic务实 centrists中间派.
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美国人民是温和、务实的中间派。
07:31
And I know that's hard to believe, that the American美国 people
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我知道这很难被接受,美国人民
07:33
are moderate中等, pragmatic务实 centrists中间派.
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是温和、务实的中间派。
07:35
But let me explain说明 what I'm thinking思维.
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不过让我来解释一下我的想法。
07:37
When you look at how the federal联邦 government政府 spends money,
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当您看到联邦政府是如何花钱的时候,
07:40
so this is the battle战斗 right here,
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这就是症结所在,
07:43
55 percent百分, more than half, is on Social社会 Security安全,
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55%超过一半的钱花在社会保障领域,
07:46
Medicare医保, Medicaid医疗补助, a few少数 other health健康 programs程式,
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医疗保险和医疗补助,几个其他健康计划,
07:48
20 percent百分 defense防御, 19 percent百分 discretionary,
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20%国防,19%自由支配,
07:51
and six percent百分 interest利益.
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6%支付利息。
07:53
So when we're talking about cutting切割 government政府 spending开支,
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所以当我们谈论削减政府支出的时候,
07:58
this is the pie馅饼 we're talking about,
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这就是我们所说的蛋糕,
08:00
and Americans美国人 overwhelmingly压倒性, and it doesn't matter
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美国人都认为,不管
08:03
what party派对 they're in, overwhelmingly压倒性 like
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他是哪个党派的,都认为
08:07
that big 55 percent百分 chunk.
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55%的部分是好的。
08:09
They like Social社会 Security安全. They like Medicare医保.
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他们喜欢社会保障。他们喜欢医疗保险。
08:11
They even like Medicaid医疗补助, even though虽然 that goes to the poor较差的 and indigent贫困,
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甚至喜欢医疗补助,即使用到穷人身上,
08:15
which哪一个 you might威力 think would have less support支持.
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可能您原以为没这么多人支持。
08:17
And they do not want it fundamentally从根本上 touched感动,
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他们不希望改变它,
08:21
although虽然 the American美国 people are remarkably异常 comfortable自在,
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美国人民是非常满意的,
08:25
and Democrats民主党 roughly大致 equal等于 to Republicans共和党人,
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民主党人和共和党人一致,
08:28
with some minor次要 tweaks调整 to make the system系统 more stable稳定.
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只做些小的调整,使系统更稳定。
08:33
Social社会 Security安全 is fairly相当 easy简单 to fix固定.
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社会保障是相当容易解决。
08:36
The rumors传闻 of its demise让位 are always greatly非常 exaggerated夸张的.
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取消社会保障的谣言是被大大夸大了。
08:40
So gradually逐渐 raise提高 Social社会 Security安全 retirement退休 age年龄,
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逐渐提高社会保障退休年龄,
08:42
maybe only on people not yet然而 born天生.
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可能只适用于还没出生的人。
08:44
Americans美国人 are about 50/50,
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美国人50对50,
08:47
whether是否 they're Democrats民主党 or Republicans共和党人.
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不管他们是民主党人还是共和党人。
08:49
Reduce减少 Medicare医保 for very wealthy富裕 seniors老年人,
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减少对非常富有老年人的医疗保险
08:51
seniors老年人 who make a lot of money. Don't even eliminate消除 it. Just reduce减少 it.
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那些有钱的老年人。甚至不取消它。只是减少它。
08:54
People generally通常 are comfortable自在 with it, Democrats民主党 and Republicans共和党人.
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人们通常是满意的,民主党人和共和党人。
08:59
Raise提高 medical health健康 care关心 contributions捐款?
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提高医疗保健的出资额?
09:02
Everyone大家 hates that equally一样, but Republicans共和党人
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每个人是同样讨厌它,共和党人
09:04
and Democrats民主党 hate讨厌 that together一起.
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和民主党人则是一起讨厌它。
09:07
And so what this tells告诉 me is, when you look at
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这告诉我,当你
09:10
the discussion讨论 of how to resolve解决 our fiscal problems问题,
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看到如何解决我们财政问题的讨论时,
09:14
we are not a nation国家 that's powerfully有力 divided分为 on the major重大的, major重大的 issue问题.
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这并不是我们国家的主要分歧,
09:21
We're comfortable自在 with it needing需要 some tweaks调整, but we want to keep it.
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我们需要的只是微调,我们想保留它。
09:24
We're not open打开 to a discussion讨论 of eliminating消除 it.
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我们不是公开讨论取消它。
09:27
Now there is one issue问题 that is hyper-partisan超党派,
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有个超党派的问题,
09:31
and where there is one party派对 that is just spend, spend, spend,
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一个党派只是支出,支出,支出,
09:35
we don't care关心, spend some more,
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我们不在意,支出更多
09:37
and that of course课程 is Republicans共和党人
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那当然是共和党人
09:39
when it comes to military军事 defense防御 spending开支.
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当说到国防支出。
09:41
They way outweigh超过 Democrats民主党.
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他们远远高于民主党人。
09:43
The vast广大 majority多数 want to protect保护 military军事 defense防御 spending开支.
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共和党人绝大多数支持国防开支。
09:48
That's 20 percent百分 of the budget预算,
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这占预算的20%,
09:50
and that presents礼物 a more difficult issue问题.
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这表现出更困难的问题。
09:54
I should also note注意 that the [discretionary] spending开支,
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我也要提到自由支出,
09:57
which哪一个 is about 19 percent百分 of the budget预算,
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大约占预算的19%,
09:59
that is Democratic民主的 and Republican共和党人 issues问题,
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这事民主党人和共和党人的问题,
10:01
so you do have welfare福利, food餐饮 stamps邮票, other programs程式
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所以你有福利,食品救济券,和其他项目
10:04
that tend趋向 to be popular流行 among其中 Democrats民主党,
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趋向于民主党人比较乐于接受,
10:06
but you also have the farm农场 bill法案 and all sorts排序 of Department of Interior室内
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但你也有农业法案和各类内务部
10:09
inducements诱因 for oil drilling钻孔 and other things,
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各种系用于石油钻井和其他东西,
10:12
which哪一个 tend趋向 to be popular流行 among其中 Republicans共和党人.
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趋向于共和党人比较乐于接受。
10:15
Now when it comes to taxes, there is more disagreement异议.
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现在,当涉及到税收,有更多的分歧。
10:19
That's a more partisan党派 area.
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这是一个更有党派之争的区域。
10:20
You have Democrats民主党 overwhelmingly压倒性 supportive支持
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绝大多数民主党人支持
10:24
of raising提高 the income收入 tax on people who make 250,000 dollars美元 a year,
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增加年收入25万美元的人的个人所得税,
10:28
Republicans共和党人 sort分类 of against反对 it, although虽然 if you break打破 it out by income收入,
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共和党人的反对,但如果你打破它的收入
10:33
Republicans共和党人 who make less than 75,000 dollars美元 a year like this idea理念.
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共和党人中,年收入少于7万5千美元的人喜欢这个主意。
10:38
So basically基本上 Republicans共和党人 who make more than 250,000 dollars美元 a year don't want to be taxed征税.
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所以基本上,共和党人中年收入超过25万美元的人不想多课税。
10:42
Raising提高 taxes on investment投资 income收入, you also see
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增加投资收入税率,你也会看到
10:45
about two thirds三分之二 of Democrats民主党 but only one third第三 of Republicans共和党人
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三分之二的民主党人支持,而只有
10:48
are comfortable自在 with that idea理念.
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三分之一的共和党人支持。
10:52
This brings带来 up a really important重要 point, which哪一个 is that
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这带来了一个真正重要的问题,
10:55
we tend趋向 in this country国家 to talk about Democrats民主党
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我们倾向于在这个国家谈论民主党人
10:58
and Republicans共和党人 and think there's this little group
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和共和党人,还有一小部分
11:00
over there called independents独立 that's, what, two percent百分?
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独立派,大约2%?
11:02
If you add Democrats民主党, you add Republicans共和党人,
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如果你或者算上民主党人,算上共和党人,
11:04
you've got the American美国 people.
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你就会得到几乎所有美国人。
11:05
But that is not the case案件 at all.
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但这并不是这样。
11:08
And it has not been the case案件 for most of modern现代 American美国 history历史.
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而且它不是大多数现代美国史的情况。
11:14
Roughly大致 a third第三 of Americans美国人 say that they are Democrats民主党.
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大约三分之一的美国人说自己是民主党人。
11:17
Around a quarter25美分硬币 say that they are Republicans共和党人.
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大约四分之一的人说自己是共和党人。
11:20
A tiny little sliver裂片 call themselves他们自己 libertarians自由主义者, or socialists社会主义者,
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一小部分称自己为自由主义者,或社会主义者,
11:25
or some other small third第三 party派对,
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或者其他小的党派,
11:27
and the largest最大 block, 40 percent百分, say they're independents独立.
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大约有40%说他们是独立派。
11:33
So most Americans美国人 are not partisan党派,
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所以绝大多数美国人是没有派性的,
11:36
and most of the people in the independent独立 camp
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绝大所数人属于独立派阵营
11:38
fall秋季 somewhere某处 in between之间, so even though虽然 we have
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介于两党之间,即使我们
11:41
tremendous巨大 overlap交叠 between之间 the views意见 on these fiscal issues问题
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民主共和两党之间有很多
11:45
of Democrats民主党 and Republicans共和党人,
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重叠的地方,
11:47
we have even more overlap交叠 when you add in the independents独立.
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考虑到独立派,我们会有更多的重叠的地方。
11:51
Now we get to fight斗争 about all sorts排序 of other issues问题.
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现在我们争论其他问题。
11:54
We get to hate讨厌 each other on gun control控制
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在控枪问题堕胎问题和环境问题上
11:56
and abortion流产 and the environment环境,
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我们互相讨厌,
11:59
but on these fiscal issues问题, these important重要 fiscal issues问题,
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但是有关财政问题,这类重要的财政问题,
12:02
we just are not anywhere随地 nearly几乎 as divided分为 as people say.
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我们并不如人所说的那样分派别。
12:05
And in fact事实, there's this other group of people
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事实上,有一群人
12:07
who are not as divided分为 as people might威力 think,
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并不如人们所想的那样分派性,
12:11
and that group is economists经济学家.
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这群人就是经济学家。
12:13
I talk to a lot of economists经济学家, and back in the '70s
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我和很多经济学家谈过话,在70年代
12:18
and '80s it was ugly丑陋 being存在 an economist经济学家.
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和80年代,作为经济学家不是好事。
12:21
You were in what they called the saltwater盐水 camp,
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要么你是在他们所谓的海水阵营,
12:24
meaning含义 Harvard哈佛, Princeton普林斯顿, MITMIT, Stanford斯坦福, Berkeley伯克利,
236
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这意味着哈佛大学,普林斯顿大学,麻省理工学院,斯坦福大学,伯克利分校,
12:29
or you were in the freshwater淡水 camp, University大学 of Chicago芝加哥,
237
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要么你在淡水阵营,芝加哥大学,
12:32
University大学 of Rochester罗切斯特.
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罗切斯特大学。
12:33
You were a free自由 market市场 capitalist资本家 economist经济学家
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要么你是一个自由市场的资本主义经济学家
12:36
or you were a Keynesian凯恩斯 liberal自由主义的 economist经济学家,
240
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要么你是凯恩斯主义的自由派经济学家,
12:39
and these people didn't go to each other's其他 weddings婚礼,
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这些人不去参加对方的婚礼,
12:41
they snubbed冷落 each other at conferences会议.
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在会议上互相冷落对方。
12:43
It's still ugly丑陋 to this day, but in my experience经验,
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现如今,它仍然不好的,但以我的经验,
12:46
it is really, really hard to find an economist经济学家 under 40
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这是真的,真的很难找到40岁以下的经济学家
12:49
who still has that kind of way of seeing眼看 the world世界.
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仍然以这种方式看世界。
12:53
The vast广大 majority多数 of economists经济学家 -- it is so uncool
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绝大多数经济学家 - 土气的
12:56
to call yourself你自己 an ideologue空想家 of either camp.
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称自己为不属于两个阵营的理论家。
12:59
The phrase短语 that you want, if you're a graduate毕业 student学生
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你想的头衔是,如果你是一个研究生
13:02
or a postdoc博士后 or you're a professor教授,
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或博士后,或者你是一个教授,
13:04
a 38-year-old-岁 economics经济学 professor教授, is, "I'm an empiricist经验主义.
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一个38岁的经济学教授,是的,“我是一个经验主义者。
13:07
I go by the data数据."
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我靠数据分析问题。”
13:09
And the data数据 is very clear明确.
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数据是非常明确的。
13:11
None没有 of these major重大的 theories理论 have been completely全然 successful成功.
253
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这两个学派理论都没有取得完全胜利
13:15
The 20th century世纪, the last hundred years年份,
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20世纪,过去这一百年,
13:17
is riddled百病 with disastrous惨重 examples例子
255
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充满了灾难性的例子的时候,
13:20
of times that one school学校 or the other tried试着 to explain说明
256
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有一所学校或其他学校试图解释
13:23
the past过去 or predict预测 the future未来
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过去或预测未来,
13:26
and just did an awful可怕, awful可怕 job工作,
258
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1886
只是做了一个可怕的工作,
13:27
so the economics经济学 profession职业 has acquired后天 some degree of modesty谦虚.
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5189
所以经济学界已经变得很谦逊了。
13:33
They still are an awfully非常 arrogant傲慢 group of people, I will assure保证 you,
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他们仍然是一群非常傲慢的人,我向你们保证,
13:36
but they're now arrogant傲慢 about their impartiality公正性,
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但他们现在傲慢显示在他们的公正性,
13:39
and they, too, see a tremendous巨大 range范围 of potential潜在 outcomes结果.
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他们也看到了巨大的潜在结果。
13:46
And this nonpartisanshipnonpartisanship is something that exists存在,
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而这个无党派存在的东西,
13:51
that has existed存在 in secret秘密
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在美国秘密已经存在多年了。
13:53
in America美国 for years年份 and years年份 and years年份.
265
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在美国秘密已经存在多年了。
13:54
I've spent花费 a lot of the fall秋季 talking to the three major重大的
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我花很大精力对三个主要组织对话
13:58
organizations组织 that survey调查 American美国 political政治 attitudes态度:
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调查美国人的政治态度:
14:02
Pew座位 Research研究,
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皮尤研究,
14:04
the University大学 of Chicago's芝加哥 National国民 Opinion意见 Research研究 Center中央,
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芝加哥大学全国民意研究中心,
14:08
and the most important重要 but the least最小 known已知
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以及最重要的,但最不为人所知的
14:10
is the American美国 National国民 Election选举 Studies学习 group
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是美国的全国选举研究组,
14:13
that is the world's世界 longest最长, most respected尊敬 poll轮询 of political政治 attitudes态度.
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是世界上最悠久,最受人尊敬的政治态度调查。
14:18
They've他们已经 been doing it since以来 1948,
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1962
他们从1948年就开始了这项工作,
14:20
and what they show显示 consistently始终如一 throughout始终
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他们始终表明的是,
14:23
is that it's almost几乎 impossible不可能 to find Americans美国人
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它几乎是不可能的找到
14:28
who are consistent一贯 ideologically意识形态,
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美国人思想是一致性,
14:31
who consistently始终如一 support支持, "No we mustn't不得 tax,
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一贯支持,“不,我们不必加税,
14:34
and we must必须 limit限制 the size尺寸 of government政府,"
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我们必须限制政府的规模”
14:37
or, "No, we must必须 encourage鼓励 government政府 to play a larger role角色
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3700
或“不,我们必须鼓励政府再分配中发挥更大的作用
14:41
in redistribution再分配 and correcting修正 the ills弊病 of capitalism资本主义."
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来纠正资本主义的弊病。“
14:45
Those groups are very, very small.
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这些人群都非常非常小。
14:47
The vast广大 majority多数 of people, they pick and choose选择,
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绝大多数人,他们选择
14:50
they see compromise妥协 and they change更改 over time
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874349
2564
他们妥协和随时间变化改主意
14:52
when they hear a better argument论据 or a worse更差 argument论据.
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尤其是他们听到更好的论点或更糟糕的论点。
14:55
And that part部分 of it has not changed.
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这部分没有改变。
14:58
What has changed is how people respond响应 to vague模糊 questions问题.
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改变的是人们如何应对模糊的问题。
15:02
If you ask people vague模糊 questions问题, like,
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如果你问人们模糊的问题,比如,
15:05
"Do you think there should be more government政府 or less government政府?"
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“你认为更多政府参与还是更少政府参与?”
15:08
"Do you think government政府 should" — especially特别 if you use loaded language语言 --
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892350
4314
“你认为政府应该...” 特别是如果你使用加载的语言
15:12
"Do you think the government政府 should provide提供 handouts讲义?"
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2479
“你认为政府应该提供施舍吗?”
15:15
Or, "Do you think the government政府 should redistribute重新分配?"
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899143
1929
或者“你认为政府应该重新分配吗?”
15:16
Then you can see radical激进 partisan党派 change更改.
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然后你可以看到激进党派变化。
15:19
But when you get specific具体, when you actually其实 ask
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但是当你特指某事,当你确切的
15:22
about the actual实际 taxing征税 and spending开支 issues问题 under consideration考虑,
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问到某项税收或支出问题时,
15:26
people are remarkably异常 centrist中间派,
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人们就变得中立,
15:28
they're remarkably异常 open打开 to compromise妥协.
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913015
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他们非常愿意妥协。
15:31
So what we have, then, when you think about the fiscal cliff悬崖,
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因此,我们有的,那么,当你觉得对财政的悬崖,
15:35
don't think of it as the American美国 people fundamentally从根本上
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4526
不认为美国人民从根本上
15:40
can't stand each other on these issues问题
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不能站在对方立场上看问题,
15:42
and that we must必须 be ripped撕开 apart距离
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926367
1555
我们必须把美国撕成
15:43
into two separate分离 warring交战 nations国家.
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两个独立的论战的国家。
15:46
Think of it as a tiny, tiny number of ancient economists经济学家
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930244
5926
把它看成是一个很小,很小的数目老经济学家
15:52
and misrepresentative虚假陈述 ideologues空想家 have captured捕获 the process处理.
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936170
3846
和不具代表性的理论家已掌控了过程。
15:55
And they've他们已经 captured捕获 the process处理 through通过 familiar ways方法,
304
940016
2576
他们已经掌控了这个过程,通过熟悉的方式
15:58
through通过 a primary system系统 which哪一个 encourages鼓励
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2952
通过一个主要系统鼓励
16:01
that small group of people's人们 voices声音,
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945544
2232
一小群人发出声音,
16:03
because that small group of people,
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947776
2105
因为这一小群人,
16:05
the people who answer回答 all yesesyeses or all noes化整为零
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949881
3072
这些人回答,是或否
16:08
on those ideological思想 questions问题,
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952953
2407
在那些意识型态问题,
16:11
they might威力 be small but every一切 one of them has a blog博客,
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955360
2607
他们可能人数少,但是他们都有博客,
16:13
every一切 one of them has been on Fox狐狸 or MSNBCMSNBC in the last week.
311
957967
3754
每个人上个星期在福克斯或微软全国广播公司上露脸。
16:17
Every一切 one of them becomes a louder and louder voice语音,
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961721
3153
他们中的每一个人都发出了更大的声音
16:20
but they don't represent代表 us.
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964874
2132
但是他们不代表我们。
16:22
They don't represent代表 what our views意见 are.
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967006
3101
他们不代表我们的视角。
16:26
And that gets得到 me back to the dollar美元,
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970107
1806
这使我回到美元,
16:27
and it gets得到 me back to reminding提醒 myself that
316
971913
3225
这使我提醒自己,
16:31
we know this experience经验.
317
975138
2010
我们知道这个体验。
16:33
We know what it's like
318
977148
1645
我们知道它像什么
16:34
to have these people on TV电视, in Congress国会,
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978793
5355
让这些人上电视,去国会,
16:40
yelling大呼小叫 about how the end结束 of the world世界 is coming未来
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984148
2727
叫嚣,世界末日会来临,
16:42
if we don't adopt采用 their view视图 completely全然,
321
986875
3226
如果我们不采纳他们的观点,
16:46
because it's happened发生 about the dollar美元
322
990101
1994
因为它发生的美元上
16:47
ever since以来 there's been a dollar美元.
323
992095
2003
自从有美元起就这样。
16:49
We had the battle战斗 between之间 Jefferson杰斐逊 and Hamilton汉密尔顿.
324
994098
3894
我们有杰斐逊和汉密尔顿的论战。
16:53
In 1913, we had this ugly丑陋 battle战斗 over the Federal联邦 Reserve保留,
325
997992
4670
在1913年,关于美联储的论战
16:58
when it was created创建, with vicious恶毒, angry愤怒 arguments参数
326
1002662
3874
当美联储建立的时候,充满了恶毒和愤怒的争论
17:02
over how it would be constituted构成,
327
1006536
1872
关于美联储如何构成,
17:04
and a general一般 agreement协议 that the way it was constituted构成
328
1008408
1777
和一般的协议关于是如何构成
17:06
was the worst最差 possible可能 compromise妥协,
329
1010185
2907
是最坏的妥协,
17:08
a compromise妥协 guaranteed保证 to destroy破坏 this valuable有价值 thing,
330
1013092
3360
一个妥协保证摧毁这宝贵的东西,
17:12
this dollar美元, but then everyone大家 agreeing同意, okay,
331
1016452
2357
美元,但最后每人同意了,Okay,
17:14
so long as we're on the gold standard标准, it should be okay.
332
1018809
2511
只要我们采用金本位制,它应该是好的。
17:17
The Fed美联储 can't mess食堂 it up so badly.
333
1021320
2050
美联储不能搞的如此糟糕。
17:19
But then we got off the gold standard标准 for individuals个人
334
1023370
4137
但是我们取消了个人的金本位制,
17:23
during the Depression萧条 and we got off the gold standard标准
335
1027507
2414
在大萧条中,
17:25
as a source资源 of international国际 currency货币 coordination协调
336
1029921
4098
尼克松时代我们取消了国际货币协调中
17:29
during Richard理查德 Nixon's尼克松 presidency总统任期.
337
1034019
2232
金本位制。
17:32
Each of those times, we were on the verge边缘 of complete完成 collapse坍方.
338
1036251
3973
上述时刻,我们都处在崩溃边缘。
17:36
And nothing happened发生 at all.
339
1040224
2154
但最终也没发生崩溃。
17:38
Throughout始终 it all, the dollar美元 has been
340
1042378
1938
贯穿始终,美元
17:40
one of the most long-standing由来已久,
341
1044316
2308
都是最长存的,
17:42
stable稳定, reasonable合理 currencies货币,
342
1046624
2135
稳定的,合理的货币,
17:44
and we all use it every一切 single day,
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1048759
2167
我们每天都会使用,
17:46
no matter what the people screaming尖叫 about tell us,
344
1050926
3025
不管什么人尖叫告诉我们,
17:49
no matter how scared害怕 we're supposed应该 to be.
345
1053951
3044
不管我们多么害怕,我们还在使用美元。
17:52
And this long-term长期 fiscal picture图片 that we're in right now,
346
1056995
3945
我们正在经历的,这个长期财政图景
17:56
I think what is most maddening发疯 about it is,
347
1060940
3929
我认为什么是最令人抓狂的是,
18:00
if Congress国会 were simply只是 able能够
348
1064869
3939
如果国会不只是能
18:04
to show显示 not that they agree同意 with each other,
349
1068808
2373
显示他们同意与对方,
18:07
not that they're able能够 to come up with the best最好 possible可能 compromise妥协,
350
1071181
3280
而不是他们能够拿出最好的妥协,
18:10
but that they are able能够 to just begin开始 the process处理
351
1074461
3082
但他们的过程才刚刚开始
18:13
towards compromise妥协, we all instantly即刻 are better off.
352
1077543
4481
的妥协,大家都立刻好起来的。
18:17
The fear恐惧 is that the world世界 is watching观看.
353
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4134
可怕的是世界正在关注。
18:22
The fear恐惧 is that the longer we delay延迟 any solution,
354
1086158
3457
可怕的越是我们拖延解决方案
18:25
the more the world世界 will look to the U.S.
355
1089615
1788
世界越认为美国
18:27
not as the bedrock基岩 of stability稳定性 in the global全球 economy经济,
356
1091403
3620
不是全球经济稳定的基石,
18:30
but as a place地点 that can't resolve解决 its own拥有 fights打架,
357
1095023
3575
但作为一个不能解决自己的论战的地方,
18:34
and the longer we put that off, the more we make the world世界 nervous紧张,
358
1098598
3826
我们拖得越久,我们越让世界担心
18:38
the higher更高 interest利益 rates利率 are going to be,
359
1102424
1783
就会有更高的贷款利率,
18:40
the quicker更快 we're going to have to face面对 a day
360
1104207
2704
越快的面对
18:42
of horrible可怕 calamity灾害.
361
1106911
2107
灾难性的那天。
18:44
And so just the act法案 of compromise妥协 itself本身,
362
1109018
3564
所以就妥协本身的行为,
18:48
and sustained持续, real真实 compromise妥协,
363
1112582
1901
和持续的、真正的妥协,
18:50
would give us even more time,
364
1114483
1814
将给我们争取更多时间,
18:52
would allow允许 both sides双方 even longer to spread传播 out the pain疼痛
365
1116297
2962
使得双方更长时间分担痛苦,
18:55
and reach达到 even more compromise妥协 down the road.
366
1119259
2635
一段时间后达成更多的妥协。
18:57
So I'm in the media媒体. I feel like my job工作 to make this happen发生
367
1121894
3112
所以我上媒体。我感觉我的工作就是
19:00
is to help foster培育 the things that seem似乎 to lead to compromise妥协,
368
1125006
4293
帮助培养导致妥协的东西,
19:05
to not talk about this in those vague模糊 and scary害怕 terms条款
369
1129299
4112
不要讲那些模糊的、吓人的术语
19:09
that do polarize偏振 us,
370
1133411
1561
这会分化我们,
19:10
but to just talk about it like what it is,
371
1134972
2609
只是谈财政悬崖是什么,
19:13
not an existential存在 crisis危机,
372
1137581
1943
不是一个生存危机,
19:15
not some battle战斗 between之间 two fundamentally从根本上 different不同 religious宗教 views意见,
373
1139524
4973
不是两种不同宗教的战争,
19:20
but a math数学 problem问题, a really solvable可解 math数学 problem问题,
374
1144497
2602
而只是一个数学问题,一个可解的数学问题,
19:22
one where we're not all going to get what we want
375
1147099
2076
是我们不能得到所有我们想要的东西
19:25
and one where, you know, there's going to be a little pain疼痛 to spread传播 around.
376
1149175
3955
是需要传播有些痛苦的东西。
19:29
But the more we address地址 it as a practical实际的 concern关心,
377
1153130
3515
不过,我们越是把它强调为现实关切,
19:32
the sooner we can resolve解决 it,
378
1156645
1511
我们就越快能解决它,
19:34
and the more time we have to resolve解决 it, paradoxically自相矛盾.
379
1158156
3467
同时,为我们解决它争取更多时间。
19:37
Thank you. (Applause掌声)
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4984
谢谢。(掌声)
Translated by dahong zhang
Reviewed by Renji Yu

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Adam Davidson - Journalist
Adam Davidson is the co-host and co-creator of "Planet Money," a weekly podcast and radio feature about the economy.

Why you should listen

Adam Davidson is co-founder and co-host of Planet Money, a co-production of NPR and This American Life. He also writes the weekly "It's the Economy" column for the New York Times Magazine. In two weekly podcasts, a blog, and regular features on Morning Edition, All Things Considered and This American Life, Planet Money helps listeners understand how dramatic economic change is impacting their lives. Planet Money also proves, every day, that substantive, intelligent economic reporting can be funny, engaging, and accessible to the non-expert.

His radio documentary on the housing crisis, "The Giant Pool of Money," which he co-reported and produced with Alex Blumberg, was named one of the top ten works of journalism of the decade by the Arthur L. Carter Journalism Institute at New York University. It was widely recognized as the clearest and most entertaining explanation of the roots of the financial crisis in any media. Davidson and Blumberg took the lessons they learned crafting "The Giant Pool of Money" to create Planet Money.

Before Planet Money, Davidson was International Business and Economics Correspondent for NPR. He traveled around the world to cover the global economy and pitched in during crises, such as reporting from Indonesia's Banda Aceh just after the tsunami, New Orleans post-Katrina, and Paris during the youth riots. Prior to coming to NPR, Davidson was Middle East correspondent for PRI's Marketplace. He spent a year in Baghdad, Iraq, from 2003 to 2004, producing award-winning reports on corruption in the US occupation.

More profile about the speaker
Adam Davidson | Speaker | TED.com