TED2017
Ray Dalio: How to build a company where the best ideas win
Ray Dalio: 如何建立一个能够获得最佳决策的公司
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你是否知道你的工作伙伴如何看待你，以及他们是怎样的人呢？Ray Dalio 给出了一个商业案例，关于使用绝对透明和算法来做出决策，创造精英对话。人们可以畅所欲言——甚至也可以针对老板。一起来学习这样的方法如何帮助Dalio创造出了世界上最好的对冲基金公司，以及如何依靠强大的数据进行决策。
Ray Dalio - Hedge fund chair
Ray Dalio is the founder, chair and co-chief investment officer of Bridgewater Associates, a global leader in institutional portfolio management and the largest hedge fund in the world. Full bio
Ray Dalio is the founder, chair and co-chief investment officer of Bridgewater Associates, a global leader in institutional portfolio management and the largest hedge fund in the world. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Whether you like it or not,
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不管你是否喜欢，
绝对透明和利用算法的
决策时代正在快速到来，
决策时代正在快速到来，
00:13
radical transparency and algorithmic
decision-making is coming at you fast,
decision-making is coming at you fast,
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并且将改变你的生活。
00:19
and it's going to change your life.
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00:21
That's because it's now easy
to take algorithms
to take algorithms
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因为现在把算法嵌入到计算机中
00:24
and embed them into computers
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十分容易，
00:26
and gather all that data
that you're leaving on yourself
that you're leaving on yourself
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它能收集你所有的
00:29
all over the place,
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私自保留的信息，
00:30
and know what you're like,
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明白哪些是你需要的，
00:32
and then direct the computers
to interact with you
to interact with you
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然后引导计算机与你互动，
00:35
in ways that are better
than most people can.
than most people can.
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这比大部分人跟你
互动的效果好多了。
互动的效果好多了。
00:38
Well, that might sound scary.
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这听上去似乎有点吓人。
00:39
I've been doing this for a long time
and I have found it to be wonderful.
and I have found it to be wonderful.
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不过我这么做已经很久了，
发现其实很管用。
发现其实很管用。
00:44
My objective has been
to have meaningful work
to have meaningful work
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我的目标是做有意义的工作，
00:46
and meaningful relationships
with the people I work with,
with the people I work with,
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与同事建立有意义的工作关系，
00:49
and I've learned that I couldn't have that
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我知道，如果没有
绝对透明和算法决策的支持，
这一切都不会发生。
这一切都不会发生。
00:51
unless I had that radical transparency
and that algorithmic decision-making.
and that algorithmic decision-making.
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00:56
I want to show you why that is,
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我想告诉你们为什么会这样，
00:58
I want to show you how it works.
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并展示它是如何运作的。
01:00
And I warn you that some of the things
that I'm going to show you
that I'm going to show you
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接下来向你们展示的
也许有点不同寻常。
01:03
probably are a little bit shocking.
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01:05
Since I was a kid,
I've had a terrible rote memory.
I've had a terrible rote memory.
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当我还是小孩子时，
我憎恶死记硬背。
我憎恶死记硬背。
01:10
And I didn't like following instructions,
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不喜欢按部就班，
也不擅长墨守成规。
01:12
I was no good at following instructions.
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我喜欢用自己的方式来理解事物。
01:14
But I loved to figure out
how things worked for myself.
how things worked for myself.
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01:18
When I was 12,
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我12岁的时候，
01:20
I hated school but I fell in love
with trading the markets.
with trading the markets.
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讨厌上学，但爱上了市场交易。
01:23
I caddied at the time,
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我当时是个小球童，
服务一包球得5美元。
01:25
earned about five dollars a bag.
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01:27
And I took my caddying money,
and I put it in the stock market.
and I put it in the stock market.
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我把自己的球童收入投入了股市。
01:31
And that was just because
the stock market was hot at the time.
the stock market was hot at the time.
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因为那个时候股市很火爆。
我买的第一个公司股票是
01:34
And the first company I bought
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01:36
was a company by the name
of Northeast Airlines.
of Northeast Airlines.
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一家叫做东北航空的公司。
01:39
Northeast Airlines was
the only company I heard of
the only company I heard of
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东北航空是当时我所知道
01:42
that was selling for less
than five dollars a share.
than five dollars a share.
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唯一的单股价格低于 5 美元的。
01:44
(Laughter)
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（笑）
我计划买更多的股票，
01:46
And I figured I could buy more shares,
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01:48
and if it went up, I'd make more money.
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如果上涨，就可以赚更多的钱。
01:50
So, it was a dumb strategy, right?
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这个策略听上去挺傻的吧？
01:54
But I tripled my money,
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不过我赚了3倍的钱，
01:55
and I tripled my money
because I got lucky.
because I got lucky.
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因为当时运气不错。
01:58
The company was about to go bankrupt,
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那家公司快破产了，
最后被其他公司收购，
02:00
but some other company acquired it,
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02:02
and I tripled my money.
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我就翻了3倍。
02:03
And I was hooked.
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从此就一发不可收拾。
02:05
And I thought, "This game is easy."
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我在想： “这个游戏真简单。”
02:09
With time,
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后来，
我才明白这个游戏一点也不简单。
02:10
I learned this game is anything but easy.
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02:12
In order to be an effective investor,
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要成为一个成功的投资人，
02:15
one has to bet against the consensus
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要和市场对赌，
还得成功。
02:17
and be right.
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要做到这一点很难。
02:19
And it's not easy to bet
against the consensus and be right.
against the consensus and be right.
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02:22
One has to bet against
the consensus and be right
the consensus and be right
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之所以难，
是因为股票价格是由市场决定的。
02:24
because the consensus
is built into the price.
is built into the price.
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02:28
And in order to be an entrepreneur,
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不过要成为一个
成功的企业家，
02:30
a successful entrepreneur,
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你必须与市场对赌并且赢得胜利。
02:32
one has to bet against
the consensus and be right.
the consensus and be right.
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02:37
I had to be an entrepreneur
and an investor --
and an investor --
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我是个企业家，也是一个投资家，
02:40
and what goes along with that
is making a lot of painful mistakes.
is making a lot of painful mistakes.
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扮演这种角色的代价就是
获得了很多惨痛的教训。
获得了很多惨痛的教训。
02:45
So I made a lot of painful mistakes,
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我的确得到了很多教训，
随后，
02:48
and with time,
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我对于犯错的态度转变了。
02:49
my attitude about those mistakes
began to change.
began to change.
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02:53
I began to think of them as puzzles.
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我开始意识到它们是谜团。
如果我能解开这些谜团，
02:55
That if I could solve the puzzles,
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就会获得巨大的回报。
02:57
they would give me gems.
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02:59
And the puzzles were:
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这个谜团就是：
03:00
What would I do differently in the future
so I wouldn't make that painful mistake?
so I wouldn't make that painful mistake?
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如何防止我在将来不犯大错？
03:05
And the gems were principles
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而要获得回报的原则就是
03:07
that I would then write down
so I would remember them
so I would remember them
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记录并回忆它们，
03:11
that would help me in the future.
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这对将来的决策很有帮助。
03:13
And because I wrote them down so clearly,
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因为我清楚地做了详细的记录，
03:15
I could then --
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最终——
我发现了——
03:17
eventually discovered --
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03:18
I could then embed them into algorithms.
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我能将这些方法嵌入算法中。
03:23
And those algorithms
would be embedded in computers,
would be embedded in computers,
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再把算法嵌入计算机中，
03:26
and the computers would
make decisions along with me;
make decisions along with me;
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计算机就能协助我做决定；
同时，我们也能制定出最后的决策。
03:30
and so in parallel,
we would make these decisions.
we would make these decisions.
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03:33
And I could see how those decisions
then compared with my own decisions,
then compared with my own decisions,
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和我自己做的决策对比之后，
03:37
and I could see that
those decisions were a lot better.
those decisions were a lot better.
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我发现这些决策要好很多。
03:40
And that was because the computer
could make decisions much faster,
could make decisions much faster,
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因为计算机做决策更快，
能处理更多信息，
03:45
it could process a lot more information
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03:47
and it can process decisions much more --
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几乎不带有任何情绪地
03:51
less emotionally.
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处理更多决策。
03:54
So it radically improved
my decision-making.
my decision-making.
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于是它彻底提高了
我的决策正确率。
我的决策正确率。
04:00
Eight years after I started Bridgewater,
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在创建了Bridgewater 8年后，
我犯下了人生中最大的错误，
04:05
I had my greatest failure,
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04:06
my greatest mistake.
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经历了最大的一次失败。
04:09
It was late 1970s,
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那是1970年代末，
04:11
I was 34 years old,
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我当时34岁，
04:13
and I had calculated that American banks
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计算出美国银行
04:17
had lent much more money
to emerging countries
to emerging countries
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出借了太多资金给新兴国家，
04:20
than those countries
were going to be able to pay back
were going to be able to pay back
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而不是那些有能力还款的国家。
04:23
and that we would have
the greatest debt crisis
the greatest debt crisis
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这会导致自大萧条后
04:25
since the Great Depression.
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最大的债务危机。
04:28
And with it, an economic crisis
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随后，就会出现经济危机，
股市走熊。
04:30
and a big bear market in stocks.
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04:33
It was a controversial view at the time.
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这个观点当时是有争议的，
04:36
People thought it was
kind of a crazy point of view.
kind of a crazy point of view.
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人们认为我的想法太疯狂。
04:39
But in August 1982,
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但是在1982年8月，
04:41
Mexico defaulted on its debt,
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墨西哥违约，
04:44
and a number of other countries followed.
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其他一系列国家跟进，
04:46
And we had the greatest debt crisis
since the Great Depression.
since the Great Depression.
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的确出现了自大萧条后
最严重的债务危机。
最严重的债务危机。
04:51
And because I had anticipated that,
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因为我早先的预测，
04:53
I was asked to testify to Congress
and appear on "Wall Street Week,"
and appear on "Wall Street Week,"
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我被国会要求出席
“华尔街之周”的听证会，
“华尔街之周”的听证会，
04:58
which was the show of the time.
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当时备受关注。
05:00
Just to give you a flavor of that,
I've got a clip here,
I've got a clip here,
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我裁剪了一小短现场录像，
05:03
and you'll see me in there.
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大家可以看到我。
05:06
(Video) Mr. Chairman, Mr. Mitchell,
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（录像）主席先生，米切尔先生，
05:08
it's a great pleasure and a great honor
to be able to appear before you
to be able to appear before you
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很荣幸出席今天的会议，
检查我们的经济哪里出了问题。
05:11
in examination with what
is going wrong with our economy.
is going wrong with our economy.
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05:15
The economy is now flat --
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经济增长已经停滞——
在失败的边缘摇摇欲坠。
05:17
teetering on the brink of failure.
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Martin Zweig:
最近有一篇文章提到了你，
最近有一篇文章提到了你，
05:19
Martin Zweig: You were recently
quoted in an article.
quoted in an article.
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你说过：“我对此深信不疑，
05:22
You said, "I can say this
with absolute certainty
with absolute certainty
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我知道市场是如何运作的。”
05:24
because I know how markets work."
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05:26
Ray Dalio: I can say
with absolute certainty
with absolute certainty
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Ray Dalio： 我能毫不犹豫的说，
如果你们在公司和整个世界范围内
05:28
that if you look at the liquidity base
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观察流动性基础，
05:30
in the corporations
and the world as a whole,
and the world as a whole,
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流动性大幅度减少，
05:33
that there's such reduced
level of liquidity
level of liquidity
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05:35
that you can't return
to an era of stagflation."
to an era of stagflation."
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你不可能回到一个滞胀的时代。“
现在回过头来看，
我想的是：“多么自负的傻瓜！”
我想的是：“多么自负的傻瓜！”
05:39
I look at that now, I think,
"What an arrogant jerk!"
"What an arrogant jerk!"
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（笑）
05:42
(Laughter)
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05:45
I was so arrogant, and I was so wrong.
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我太骄傲了，而且大错特错。
我的意思是，尽管债务危机发生了，
05:48
I mean, while the debt crisis happened,
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05:50
the stock market and the economy
went up rather than going down,
went up rather than going down,
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股市和经济却都在上涨，而非下降，
05:54
and I lost so much money
for myself and for my clients
for myself and for my clients
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我损失了自己和客户的大量资金，
05:59
that I had to shut down
my operation pretty much,
my operation pretty much,
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不得不关闭整个公司，
06:03
I had to let almost everybody go.
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遣散所有的员工。
06:05
And these were like extended family,
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这是一个延伸的大家庭，
我的心都要碎了。
06:07
I was heartbroken.
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我本人也损失惨重，
06:09
And I had lost so much money
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06:10
that I had to borrow
4,000 dollars from my dad
4,000 dollars from my dad
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不得不向我父亲借了4000美元
来支付家庭的日常开支。
06:14
to help to pay my family bills.
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06:16
It was one of the most painful
experiences of my life ...
experiences of my life ...
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这是我人生经历中
最惨痛的一次经历。。。
最惨痛的一次经历。。。
06:21
but it turned out to be
one of the greatest experiences of my life
one of the greatest experiences of my life
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同时也成为我人生经历中
最珍贵的一次经历，
最珍贵的一次经历，
06:25
because it changed my attitude
about decision-making.
about decision-making.
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因为它改变了我对决策的态度。
06:28
Rather than thinking, "I'm right,"
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不再去想，“我是正确的”，
06:31
I started to ask myself,
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我现在开始询问自己
06:33
"How do I know I'm right?"
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“你如何才知道自己是正确的？”
06:36
I gained a humility that I needed
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为了平衡我的鲁莽，
06:38
in order to balance my audacity.
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我学会了什么是谦卑。
06:41
I wanted to find the smartest
people who would disagree with me
people who would disagree with me
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我需要找到最聪明的人来反驳我，
06:46
to try to understand their perspective
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以此来理解他们的观点，
或者来测试我的观点。
06:48
or to have them
stress test my perspective.
stress test my perspective.
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06:51
I wanted to make an idea meritocracy.
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我称之为“精英对话”。
换个说法是，
06:54
In other words,
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不利用自己的权利来带领其他人，
06:55
not an autocracy in which
I would lead and others would follow
I would lead and others would follow
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06:59
and not a democracy in which everybody's
points of view were equally valued,
points of view were equally valued,
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也不是每个人都能
平等说出自己观点的民主氛围，
平等说出自己观点的民主氛围，
07:02
but I wanted to have an idea meritocracy
in which the best ideas would win out.
in which the best ideas would win out.
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而是用精英对话的方式，
来得到最好的点子。
来得到最好的点子。
为了实现这一点，
07:08
And in order to do that,
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07:09
I realized that we would need
radical truthfulness
radical truthfulness
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我意识到公司需要完全的信任，
07:12
and radical transparency.
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完全的透明，
07:14
What I mean by radical truthfulness
and radical transparency
and radical transparency
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我指的绝对诚实和绝对透明，
07:18
is people needed to say
what they really believed
what they really believed
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是指人们能表达出自己的真实想法，
07:21
and to see everything.
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能看得更加全面。
07:23
And we literally
tape almost all conversations
tape almost all conversations
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我们会记录下所有的对话，
让每个人都能看清一切，
07:27
and let everybody see everything,
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如果我们不这么做，
07:29
because if we didn't do that,
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就不能实现真正的精英管理。
07:30
we couldn't really have
an idea meritocracy.
an idea meritocracy.
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07:34
In order to have an idea meritocracy,
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为了达到这个目的，
07:38
we have let people speak
and say what they want.
and say what they want.
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我们需要让人们自由表达。
07:40
Just to give you an example,
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这里有个例子，
这是一封Jim Haskel
写给我的电子邮件——
写给我的电子邮件——
07:42
this is an email from Jim Haskel --
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07:45
somebody who works for me --
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Jim 是我的员工——
07:46
and this was available
to everybody in the company.
to everybody in the company.
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公司中任何人都可以这样做。
07:49
"Ray, you deserve a 'D-'
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“Ray，针对你今天在会上的表现，
只能给你评个D-，
07:52
for your performance
today in the meeting ...
today in the meeting ...
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你根本没有做好准备，
07:54
you did not prepare at all well
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07:56
because there is no way
you could have been that disorganized."
you could have been that disorganized."
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从来没有哪次会议
组织得这么混乱。“
组织得这么混乱。“
08:01
Isn't that great?
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是不是很棒？
08:02
(Laughter)
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（笑）
的确很棒。
08:04
That's great.
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因为首先，我需要这样的反馈。
08:05
It's great because, first of all,
I needed feedback like that.
I needed feedback like that.
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我需要像这样的反馈。
08:08
I need feedback like that.
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08:09
And it's great because if I don't let Jim,
and people like Jim,
and people like Jim,
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如果我不支持Jim或者其他人
08:13
to express their points of view,
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自由表达自己的观点，
我们的关系就会变得不同了。
08:14
our relationship wouldn't be the same.
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08:17
And if I didn't make that public
for everybody to see,
for everybody to see,
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如果我不让每个人都能看见，
这就不是精英对话。
08:20
we wouldn't have an idea meritocracy.
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08:23
So for that last 25 years
that's how we've been operating.
that's how we've been operating.
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我们这样做了25年，
08:27
We've been operating
with this radical transparency
with this radical transparency
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保持绝对透明，
08:30
and then collecting these principles,
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凭着这样的原则，
08:33
largely from making mistakes,
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避免了重大错误，
08:35
and then embedding
those principles into algorithms.
those principles into algorithms.
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于是我们把这个原则植入了算法中。
算法向我们证明了——
08:39
And then those algorithms provide --
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我们可以跟随算法做决策，
08:42
we're following the algorithms
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2016
08:44
in parallel with our thinking.
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同时也运用我们自己的思考。
08:47
That has been how we've run
the investment business,
the investment business,
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这就是我们如何经营投资公司，
以及如何管理员工。
08:50
and it's how we also deal
with the people management.
with the people management.
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08:53
In order to give you a glimmer
into what this looks like,
into what this looks like,
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为了让你们更好的理解我的意思，
08:57
I'd like to take you into a meeting
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我想邀请大家参加一个会议，
看看我们的工具“网络收集者”
08:59
and introduce you to a tool of ours
called the "Dot Collector"
called the "Dot Collector"
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是如何帮助我们完成目标的。
09:02
that helps us do this.
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09:07
A week after the US election,
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在美国大选一周后，
我们的调查团队开了个会，
09:09
our research team held a meeting
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09:11
to discuss what a Trump presidency
would mean for the US economy.
would mean for the US economy.
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讨论特朗普当选
对美国经济意味着什么。
对美国经济意味着什么。
09:16
Naturally, people had
different opinions on the matter
different opinions on the matter
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很自然的，人们对此有很多不同观点，
我们如何进行这次讨论呢？
09:18
and how we were
approaching the discussion.
approaching the discussion.
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09:21
The "Dot Collector" collects these views.
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“网络收集器”收集观点
09:24
It has a list of a few dozen attributes,
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其中列举了几十个属性，
只要思考其他人的想法
09:26
so whenever somebody thinks something
about another person's thinking,
about another person's thinking,
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09:31
it's easy for them
to convey their assessment;
to convey their assessment;
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就很容易交换评价。
属性提供从1-10的评价系统。
09:33
they simply note the attribute
and provide a rating from one to 10.
and provide a rating from one to 10.
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09:39
For example, as the meeting began,
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比如，会议开始时，
09:41
a researcher named Jen rated me a three --
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调查者Jen给我的评分是3——
09:45
in other words, badly --
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2016
换句话说，很糟——
09:47
(Laughter)
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（笑）
在开放和自信的
平衡方面做得不好。
平衡方面做得不好。
09:49
for not showing a good balance
of open-mindedness and assertiveness.
of open-mindedness and assertiveness.
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09:54
As the meeting transpired,
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随着会议继续进行，
09:55
Jen's assessments of people
added up like this.
added up like this.
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Jen也对其他人也会做出评价，
09:59
Others in the room
have different opinions.
have different opinions.
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屋里其他人有各自不同的观点。
10:02
That's normal.
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这很正常。
10:03
Different people are always
going to have different opinions.
going to have different opinions.
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不同人总有不同观点，
10:06
And who knows who's right?
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怎么分辨谁对谁错呢？
10:09
Let's look at just what people thought
about how I was doing.
about how I was doing.
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只关注一下人们对我的评价。
10:13
Some people thought I did well,
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一些人认为我做的很好，
10:15
others, poorly.
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1200
另外一些人认为很糟。
10:18
With each of these views,
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依据不同的观点，
10:19
we can explore the thinking
behind the numbers.
behind the numbers.
217
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我们能探索数字背后的原因。
10:22
Here's what Jen and Larry said.
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这是Jen和Larry说的。
10:25
Note that everyone
gets to express their thinking,
gets to express their thinking,
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2616
每人都有机会表达想法，
包括他们的评判式思考，
10:28
including their critical thinking,
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无论他们在公司里的地位如何。
10:30
regardless of their position
in the company.
in the company.
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10:33
Jen, who's 24 years old
and right out of college,
and right out of college,
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Jen，24岁，刚从学校毕业，
10:36
can tell me, the CEO,
that I'm approaching things terribly.
that I'm approaching things terribly.
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她能告诉我，他们的CEO，
在解决问题方面很糟。
在解决问题方面很糟。
10:40
This tool helps people
both express their opinions
both express their opinions
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这个工具帮助人们自由表达，
10:44
and then separate themselves
from their opinions
from their opinions
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把观点和个人分离开，
10:47
to see things from a higher level.
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从更高层次看问题。
10:50
When Jen and others shift their attentions
from inputting their own opinions
from inputting their own opinions
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4896
当Jen和其他人交换观点
10:55
to looking down on the whole screen,
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并纵览整个屏幕，
他们的观念就会发生转变。
10:58
their perspective changes.
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11:00
They see their own opinions
as just one of many
as just one of many
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他们看出自己代表的
仅仅是其中的一部分观点，
仅仅是其中的一部分观点，
11:03
and naturally start asking themselves,
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自然会开始自问，
“我怎么知道我的观点是正确的呢？”
11:06
"How do I know my opinion is right?"
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2000
11:09
That shift in perspective is like going
from seeing in one dimension
from seeing in one dimension
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观点的转变就像只从一个维度
11:13
to seeing in multiple dimensions.
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看多维空间。
11:15
And it shifts the conversation
from arguing over our opinions
from arguing over our opinions
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谈话从争论各种观点，转变成了
11:19
to figuring out objective criteria
for determining which opinions are best.
for determining which opinions are best.
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找到客观标准来决定
哪个观点最好。
哪个观点最好。
11:24
Behind the "Dot Collector"
is a computer that is watching.
is a computer that is watching.
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3600
在“网络收集器”的背后，
计算机正在观察
计算机正在观察
11:29
It watches what all
these people are thinking
these people are thinking
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所有这些人在想什么，
并与他们如何思考相关联。
11:31
and it correlates that
with how they think.
with how they think.
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2576
基于这些谈话反馈，
11:33
And it communicates advice
back to each of them based on that.
back to each of them based on that.
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11:38
Then it draws the data
from all the meetings
from all the meetings
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3416
从所有会议中抽取数据，
11:41
to create a pointilist painting
of what people are like
of what people are like
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对人们的特点和他们的想法
做出数据点图。
11:45
and how they think.
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11:47
And it does that guided by algorithms.
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这个过程由算法引导，
11:50
Knowing what people are like helps
to match them better with their jobs.
to match them better with their jobs.
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了解人们的特点可以
帮助他们更好的与工作进行匹配。
帮助他们更好的与工作进行匹配。
11:55
For example,
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例如，
创造性思想家不太靠谱，
11:56
a creative thinker who is unreliable
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也许可以匹配一个靠谱
但是无创造性的人。
但是无创造性的人。
11:58
might be matched up with someone
who's reliable but not creative.
who's reliable but not creative.
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12:02
Knowing what people are like
also allows us to decide
also allows us to decide
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3336
知道其他人的想法，
也让我们能够决定
也让我们能够决定
12:05
what responsibilities to give them
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应该赋予他们怎样的责任，
并基于人们的优势
来权衡我们的决策。
来权衡我们的决策。
12:07
and to weigh our decisions
based on people's merits.
based on people's merits.
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12:12
We call it their believability.
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我们称之为他们的“可依赖度”。
12:14
Here's an example of a vote that we took
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1976
这里有个我们投票的例子，
大部分人同意一个方案——
12:16
where the majority
of people felt one way ...
of people felt one way ...
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12:20
but when we weighed the views
based on people's merits,
based on people's merits,
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但当我们根据各自优势来权衡时，
12:23
the answer was completely different.
256
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答案就不同了。
12:26
This process allows us to make decisions
not based on democracy,
not based on democracy,
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4576
这个过程让我们做决定的时候
不再基于民主，
不再基于民主，
12:31
not based on autocracy,
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2136
不基于专制，
仅基于考虑人们可依赖度的算法。
12:33
but based on algorithms that take
people's believability into consideration.
people's believability into consideration.
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5240
12:41
Yup, we really do this.
260
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1696
没错，我们就是这样做的。
12:43
(Laughter)
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3296
（笑）
12:46
We do it because it eliminates
262
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2856
因为这消除了
12:49
what I believe to be
one of the greatest tragedies of mankind,
one of the greatest tragedies of mankind,
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4456
人性中最大的悲剧，
就是人类的自大、
12:53
and that is people arrogantly,
264
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2160
12:56
naïvely holding opinions
in their minds that are wrong,
in their minds that are wrong,
265
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4456
天真，自以为是的
持有错误的观点，
持有错误的观点，
并执行它，
13:01
and acting on them,
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而不放在压力环境中进行测试，
13:02
and not putting them out there
to stress test them.
to stress test them.
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2760
13:06
And that's a tragedy.
268
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1336
就会产生悲剧。
13:07
And we do it because it elevates ourselves
above our own opinions
above our own opinions
269
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5416
我们相信这样做会提升自己，
开始从别人眼中看问题，
13:12
so that we start to see things
through everybody's eyes,
through everybody's eyes,
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2896
13:15
and we see things collectively.
271
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1920
用集体方式的看待问题。
13:18
Collective decision-making is so much
better than individual decision-making
better than individual decision-making
272
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4336
如果运用良好，集体决策比个人决策
要好很多。
13:22
if it's done well.
273
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1200
13:24
It's been the secret sauce
behind our success.
behind our success.
274
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2616
这就是我们成功背后的秘密武器。
正因为如此，对比其他对冲基金公司，
13:27
It's why we've made
more money for our clients
more money for our clients
275
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2176
13:29
than any other hedge fund in existence
276
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1936
我们可以为客户赚更多钱。
13:31
and made money
23 out of the last 26 years.
23 out of the last 26 years.
277
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2720
26年中有23年都是如此。
13:35
So what's the problem
with being radically truthful
with being radically truthful
278
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4536
那么绝对信任和绝对透明的
13:40
and radically transparent with each other?
279
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2240
问题是什么呢？
13:45
People say it's emotionally difficult.
280
813400
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人们认为从感情上很难接受。
13:48
Critics say it's a formula
for a brutal work environment.
for a brutal work environment.
281
816240
4240
有批评家说这是
严酷工作环境的模式。
严酷工作环境的模式。
13:53
Neuroscientists tell me it has to do
with how are brains are prewired.
with how are brains are prewired.
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821400
4856
神经科学家告诉我，
这与大脑如何进行预先假设有关。
这与大脑如何进行预先假设有关。
13:58
There's a part of our brain
that would like to know our mistakes
that would like to know our mistakes
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3216
一部分大脑知道我们会犯错，
14:01
and like to look at our weaknesses
so we could do better.
so we could do better.
284
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3960
直面缺点会让后我们变得更好。
14:06
I'm told that that's
the prefrontal cortex.
the prefrontal cortex.
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2440
这是前额皮层做的事情。
14:09
And then there's a part of our brain
which views all of this as attacks.
which views all of this as attacks.
286
837040
4856
大脑的另外一部分
会将这些当成抨击的观点。
会将这些当成抨击的观点。
14:13
I'm told that that's the amygdala.
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841920
1960
这是在大脑杏仁核区域发生的。
14:16
In other words,
there are two you's inside you:
there are two you's inside you:
288
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3056
换句话说，有2个人在你体内，
14:19
there's an emotional you
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1416
一个极富情绪，
另一个很理智，
14:20
and there's an intellectual you,
290
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1776
14:22
and often they're at odds,
291
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1776
他们彼此常常互不相容，
14:24
and often they work against you.
292
852560
1920
时常对抗你。
14:27
It's been our experience
that we can win this battle.
that we can win this battle.
293
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3736
我们的经验表明，
我们可以赢得这场战争，
我们可以赢得这场战争，
以团队的方式。
14:30
We win it as a group.
294
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1320
14:33
It takes about 18 months typically
295
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2336
通常需要18个月
14:35
to find that most people
prefer operating this way,
prefer operating this way,
296
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3056
去发现大部分人喜欢的方式，
14:38
with this radical transparency
297
866440
2016
以完全透明，
而非隐蔽的环境中
进行公司改造。
进行公司改造。
14:40
than to be operating
in a more opaque environment.
in a more opaque environment.
298
868480
3336
14:43
There's not politics,
there's not the brutality of --
there's not the brutality of --
299
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4296
没有政治，没有野蛮——
14:48
you know, all of that hidden,
behind-the-scenes --
behind-the-scenes --
300
876160
2376
也就是没有任何暗箱操作——
人们可以畅所欲言的表达。
14:50
there's an idea meritocracy
where people can speak up.
where people can speak up.
301
878560
2936
这样很好。
14:53
And that's been great.
302
881520
1256
给我们更有效的工作，
14:54
It's given us more effective work,
303
882800
1656
以及更有效的人际关系。
14:56
and it's given us
more effective relationships.
more effective relationships.
304
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2400
14:59
But it's not for everybody.
305
887400
1320
但这并不适用于任何人。
15:01
We found something like
25 or 30 percent of the population
25 or 30 percent of the population
306
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2936
我们发现有25%-30%的人
15:04
it's just not for.
307
892640
1736
不适合这样做。
顺便提一句，
15:06
And by the way,
308
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1216
当我说绝对透明，
15:07
when I say radical transparency,
309
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1816
15:09
I'm not saying transparency
about everything.
about everything.
310
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2336
不是指对任何事情都绝对透明。
15:11
I mean, you don't have to tell somebody
that their bald spot is growing
that their bald spot is growing
311
899840
3816
你不需要告诉别人
他们秃顶越来越严重，
他们秃顶越来越严重，
或者他们的孩子很难看。
15:15
or their baby's ugly.
312
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1616
15:17
So, I'm just talking about --
313
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我的意思是——
（笑）
15:19
(Laughter)
314
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1216
15:20
talking about the important things.
315
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2176
重要的事情。
所以——
15:22
So --
316
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1216
15:24
(Laughter)
317
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3200
（笑）
15:28
So when you leave this room,
318
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1416
当你离开这间屋子，
15:30
I'd like you to observe yourself
in conversations with others.
in conversations with others.
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我希望你在与他人交流时
能仔细观察自己，
能仔细观察自己，
15:35
Imagine if you knew
what they were really thinking,
what they were really thinking,
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想象如果你能真正理解他人的思想，
15:39
and imagine if you knew
what they were really like ...
what they were really like ...
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真正理解他人的特质，
15:43
and imagine if they knew
what you were really thinking
what you were really thinking
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想象他们能真正理解你的思想，
15:47
and what were really like.
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理解你的特质。
15:50
It would certainly clear things up a lot
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这样一来一定会
帮你理清很多事情，
帮你理清很多事情，
15:52
and make your operations
together more effective.
together more effective.
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使得你们在一起合作更加高效。
15:55
I think it will improve
your relationships.
your relationships.
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我想这样也会促进你们的关系。
15:58
Now imagine that you can have algorithms
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现在想象，你有一些算法
16:01
that will help you gather
all of that information
all of that information
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帮助你收集信息，
16:05
and even help you make decisions
in an idea-meritocratic way.
in an idea-meritocratic way.
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甚至帮助你做出优选决策。
16:12
This sort of radical transparency
is coming at you
is coming at you
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这样绝对透明的时代马上就要到来，
16:17
and it is going to affect your life.
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影响你的生活。
16:19
And in my opinion,
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依我的拙见，
前途是光明的。
16:21
it's going to be wonderful.
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我希望这个方法对你有帮助，
16:23
So I hope it is as wonderful for you
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就如同我们所收获的一样。
16:25
as it is for me.
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16:27
Thank you very much.
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十分感谢。
（鼓掌）
16:28
(Applause)
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Translated by xiao gu
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Ray Dalio - Hedge fund chairRay Dalio is the founder, chair and co-chief investment officer of Bridgewater Associates, a global leader in institutional portfolio management and the largest hedge fund in the world.
Why you should listen
Dalio started Bridgewater out of his two-bedroom apartment in New York City in 1975 and has grown it into the fifth most important private company in the U.S. (according to Fortune magazine). Because of the firm’s many industry-changing innovations over its 40-year history, he has been called the “Steve Jobs of investing” by aiCIO magazine and named one of TIME magazine’s "100 Most Influential People."
Dalio attributes Bridgewater’s success to its unique culture. He describes it as “a believability-weighted idea meritocracy” in which the people strive for “meaningful work and meaningful relationships through radical truth and radical transparency.” He has explained this approach in his book Principles, which has been downloaded more than three million times and has produced considerable curiosity and controversy.
Ray Dalio | Speaker | TED.com