TED2017
Ray Dalio: How to build a company where the best ideas win
Ray Dalio: Kako izgraditi tvrtku u kojoj pobjeđuju najbolje ideje
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Zamislite da znate što vaši suradnici stvarno misle o vama i kakvi su oni stvarno. Ray Dalio obrazlaže poslovne razloge za primjenu radikalne transparentnosti i algoritamskog procesa odlučivanja radi stvaranja meritokracije ideja u kojoj se ljudi smiju izraziti i reći što stvarno misle, čak i ako to znači kritiziranje šefa. Saznajte više o tome kako su te strategije pomogle Daliju stvoriti jedan od najuspješnijih hedge fondova i kako biste vi mogli iskoristiti moć grupnog odlučivanja temeljenog na podacima.
Ray Dalio - Hedge fund chair
Ray Dalio is the founder, chair and co-chief investment officer of Bridgewater Associates, a global leader in institutional portfolio management and the largest hedge fund in the world. Full bio
Ray Dalio is the founder, chair and co-chief investment officer of Bridgewater Associates, a global leader in institutional portfolio management and the largest hedge fund in the world. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Whether you like it or not,
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Bez obzira sviđa li se to vama ili ne,
00:13
radical transparency and algorithmic
decision-making is coming at you fast,
decision-making is coming at you fast,
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radikalna transparentnost i
algoritamsko odlučivanje stižu brzo
algoritamsko odlučivanje stižu brzo
00:19
and it's going to change your life.
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i promijenit će vam život.
00:21
That's because it's now easy
to take algorithms
to take algorithms
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Tomu je tako jer je danas jednostavno
00:24
and embed them into computers
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algoritme ugraditi u računala
00:26
and gather all that data
that you're leaving on yourself
that you're leaving on yourself
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i skupiti sve te podatke
koje ostavljate o sebi
koje ostavljate o sebi
00:29
all over the place,
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posvuda,
00:30
and know what you're like,
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i saznati kakvi ste,
00:32
and then direct the computers
to interact with you
to interact with you
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a zatim usmjeriti računala
da komuniciraju s vama
da komuniciraju s vama
00:35
in ways that are better
than most people can.
than most people can.
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na načine koji su bolji
od većine ljudskih.
od većine ljudskih.
00:38
Well, that might sound scary.
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E, to može zvučati strašno.
00:39
I've been doing this for a long time
and I have found it to be wonderful.
and I have found it to be wonderful.
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Ja se time bavim dugo
i mislim da je čarobno.
i mislim da je čarobno.
00:44
My objective has been
to have meaningful work
to have meaningful work
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Moj je cilj bio
imati smislen posao
imati smislen posao
00:46
and meaningful relationships
with the people I work with,
with the people I work with,
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i smislene odnose sa suradnicima,
00:49
and I've learned that I couldn't have that
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a saznao sam da do toga ne mogu
00:51
unless I had that radical transparency
and that algorithmic decision-making.
and that algorithmic decision-making.
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ako ne uključim radikalnu transparentnost
i to algoritamsko odlučivanje.
i to algoritamsko odlučivanje.
00:56
I want to show you why that is,
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Želim vam pokazati što je to,
00:58
I want to show you how it works.
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želim vam pokazati kako djeluje.
01:00
And I warn you that some of the things
that I'm going to show you
that I'm going to show you
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Upozoravam vas da bi neke stvari
koje ću vam pokazati
koje ću vam pokazati
01:03
probably are a little bit shocking.
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mogle biti pomalo šokantne.
01:05
Since I was a kid,
I've had a terrible rote memory.
I've had a terrible rote memory.
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Još kao dijete bio sam loš
u učenju napamet.
u učenju napamet.
01:10
And I didn't like following instructions,
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I nisam volio slijediti upute,
01:12
I was no good at following instructions.
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nisam bio dobar u poštivanju uputa.
01:14
But I loved to figure out
how things worked for myself.
how things worked for myself.
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Ali sviđalo mi se
kada bih nešto odgonetnuo sȃm.
kada bih nešto odgonetnuo sȃm.
01:18
When I was 12,
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Kada sam imao 12 godina,
01:20
I hated school but I fell in love
with trading the markets.
with trading the markets.
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mrzio sam školu, ali
zaljubio sam se u trgovanje na tržištu.
zaljubio sam se u trgovanje na tržištu.
01:23
I caddied at the time,
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Radio sam kao nosač palica za golf
01:25
earned about five dollars a bag.
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i zarađivao oko
pet dolara po torbi.
pet dolara po torbi.
01:27
And I took my caddying money,
and I put it in the stock market.
and I put it in the stock market.
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Tako zarađen novac
uložio sam na burzu.
uložio sam na burzu.
01:31
And that was just because
the stock market was hot at the time.
the stock market was hot at the time.
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To je bilo samo zato što je burza
bila popularna u to doba.
bila popularna u to doba.
01:34
And the first company I bought
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Prva tvrtka koju sam kupio
01:36
was a company by the name
of Northeast Airlines.
of Northeast Airlines.
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bila je Northeast Airlines.
01:39
Northeast Airlines was
the only company I heard of
the only company I heard of
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Northeast Airlines bila je jedina tvrtka
za koju sam čuo
za koju sam čuo
01:42
that was selling for less
than five dollars a share.
than five dollars a share.
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da se prodaje
za manje od pet dolara po dionici.
za manje od pet dolara po dionici.
01:44
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
01:46
And I figured I could buy more shares,
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Shvatio sam da mogu kupiti više dionica
01:48
and if it went up, I'd make more money.
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i ako porastu, zaradio bih više novaca.
01:50
So, it was a dumb strategy, right?
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To je bila glupa strategija, zar ne?
01:54
But I tripled my money,
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Ali utrostručio sam zaradu,
01:55
and I tripled my money
because I got lucky.
because I got lucky.
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a utrostručio sam zaradu
jer sam imao sreće.
jer sam imao sreće.
01:58
The company was about to go bankrupt,
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Tvrtka je bila pred stečajem,
02:00
but some other company acquired it,
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ali kupila ju je neka druga tvrtka
02:02
and I tripled my money.
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i ja sam utrostručio zaradu.
02:03
And I was hooked.
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Navukao sam se.
02:05
And I thought, "This game is easy."
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Pomislio sam: "Ova igra je jednostavna."
02:09
With time,
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S vremenom
02:10
I learned this game is anything but easy.
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naučio sam da je ta igra sve
samo ne jednostavna.
samo ne jednostavna.
02:12
In order to be an effective investor,
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Da bi bio dobar ulagač,
02:15
one has to bet against the consensus
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moraš ići protiv struje
02:17
and be right.
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i biti u pravu.
02:19
And it's not easy to bet
against the consensus and be right.
against the consensus and be right.
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A nije lako ići protiv struje
i biti u pravu.
i biti u pravu.
02:22
One has to bet against
the consensus and be right
the consensus and be right
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Moraš ići protiv struje i biti u pravu
02:24
because the consensus
is built into the price.
is built into the price.
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jer je "struja" uključena u cijenu.
02:28
And in order to be an entrepreneur,
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I da bi bio poduzetnik,
02:30
a successful entrepreneur,
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uspješan poduzetnik,
02:32
one has to bet against
the consensus and be right.
the consensus and be right.
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moraš ići protiv struje i biti u pravu.
02:37
I had to be an entrepreneur
and an investor --
and an investor --
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Morao sam biti poduzetnik i ulagač...
02:40
and what goes along with that
is making a lot of painful mistakes.
is making a lot of painful mistakes.
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a to prati golem broj bolnih pogrešaka.
02:45
So I made a lot of painful mistakes,
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Napravio sam puno bolnih pogrešaka
02:48
and with time,
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i s vremenom
02:49
my attitude about those mistakes
began to change.
began to change.
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moj se stav o tim pogreškama
počeo mijenjati.
počeo mijenjati.
02:53
I began to think of them as puzzles.
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Počeo sam gledati na njih
kao na slagalice.
kao na slagalice.
02:55
That if I could solve the puzzles,
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Ako riješim slagalicu,
02:57
they would give me gems.
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dobit ću nagradu.
02:59
And the puzzles were:
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A slagalica je bila:
03:00
What would I do differently in the future
so I wouldn't make that painful mistake?
so I wouldn't make that painful mistake?
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Što mogu učiniti drukčije u budućnosti
kako se bolne pogreške ne bi ponovile?
kako se bolne pogreške ne bi ponovile?
03:05
And the gems were principles
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Nagradu su činila načela
03:07
that I would then write down
so I would remember them
so I would remember them
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koja bih zapisao da ih zapamtim
03:11
that would help me in the future.
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i da mi pomognu u budućnosti.
03:13
And because I wrote them down so clearly,
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Budući da sam ih zapisao jasno,
03:15
I could then --
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mogao sam --
03:17
eventually discovered --
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to sam naknadno shvatio --
03:18
I could then embed them into algorithms.
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mogao sam ih ugraditi u algoritme.
03:23
And those algorithms
would be embedded in computers,
would be embedded in computers,
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Ti bi se algoritmi ugradili u računala,
03:26
and the computers would
make decisions along with me;
make decisions along with me;
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a računala bi donosila odluke sa mnom;
03:30
and so in parallel,
we would make these decisions.
we would make these decisions.
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zajednički bismo donosili te odluke.
03:33
And I could see how those decisions
then compared with my own decisions,
then compared with my own decisions,
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I mogao sam usporediti
te odluke s vlastitima
te odluke s vlastitima
03:37
and I could see that
those decisions were a lot better.
those decisions were a lot better.
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i uvidjeti da su te odluke puno bolje.
03:40
And that was because the computer
could make decisions much faster,
could make decisions much faster,
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Tomu je tako jer računalo
puno brže donosi odluke,
puno brže donosi odluke,
03:45
it could process a lot more information
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obrađuje puno više informacija
03:47
and it can process decisions much more --
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i obrađuje odluke puno --
03:51
less emotionally.
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s puno manje emocija.
03:54
So it radically improved
my decision-making.
my decision-making.
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To je radikalno promijenilo
moj proces odlučivanja.
moj proces odlučivanja.
04:00
Eight years after I started Bridgewater,
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Osam godina nakon osnutka Bridgewatera
04:05
I had my greatest failure,
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doživio sam najveći neuspjeh,
04:06
my greatest mistake.
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najveću pogrešku.
04:09
It was late 1970s,
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Bile su kasne 1970-e,
04:11
I was 34 years old,
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imao sam 34 godine,
04:13
and I had calculated that American banks
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i izračunao sam da su američke banke
04:17
had lent much more money
to emerging countries
to emerging countries
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posudile puno više novaca
zemljama u razvoju
zemljama u razvoju
04:20
than those countries
were going to be able to pay back
were going to be able to pay back
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nego što će te zemlje moći vratiti
04:23
and that we would have
the greatest debt crisis
the greatest debt crisis
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i da ćemo doživjeti najveću dužničku krizu
04:25
since the Great Depression.
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od Velike depresije.
04:28
And with it, an economic crisis
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Uz to će doći gospodarska kriza
04:30
and a big bear market in stocks.
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uz veliki pad vrijednosti dionica.
04:33
It was a controversial view at the time.
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To je bilo kontroverzno gledište
u ono doba.
u ono doba.
04:36
People thought it was
kind of a crazy point of view.
kind of a crazy point of view.
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Ljudi su mislili da je to
pomalo ludo stajalište.
pomalo ludo stajalište.
04:39
But in August 1982,
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Ali u kolovozu 1982.
04:41
Mexico defaulted on its debt,
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Meksiko nije platio svoj dug,
04:44
and a number of other countries followed.
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a zatim ni neke druge zemlje.
04:46
And we had the greatest debt crisis
since the Great Depression.
since the Great Depression.
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I imali smo najveću dužničku krizu
od Velike depresije.
od Velike depresije.
04:51
And because I had anticipated that,
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Budući da sam to predviđao,
04:53
I was asked to testify to Congress
and appear on "Wall Street Week,"
and appear on "Wall Street Week,"
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zvali su me da svjedočim u Kongresu
i gostujem u emisiji "Wall Street Week",
i gostujem u emisiji "Wall Street Week",
04:58
which was the show of the time.
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popularnoj emisiji u ono doba.
05:00
Just to give you a flavor of that,
I've got a clip here,
I've got a clip here,
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Da vam to malo približim,
imam ovdje isječak,
imam ovdje isječak,
05:03
and you'll see me in there.
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gdje me možete vidjeti.
(Videozapis)
G. predsjedniče, g. Mitchell,
G. predsjedniče, g. Mitchell,
05:06
(Video) Mr. Chairman, Mr. Mitchell,
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05:08
it's a great pleasure and a great honor
to be able to appear before you
to be able to appear before you
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zadovoljstvo mi je i čast
što mogu s vama sudjelovati
što mogu s vama sudjelovati
05:11
in examination with what
is going wrong with our economy.
is going wrong with our economy.
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u ispitivanju što nije u redu
s našim gospodarstvom.
s našim gospodarstvom.
05:15
The economy is now flat --
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Gospodarstvo nam je u recesiji --
05:17
teetering on the brink of failure.
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tetura po rubu kraha.
05:19
Martin Zweig: You were recently
quoted in an article.
quoted in an article.
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Martin Zweig: Nedavno su vas
citirali u članku.
citirali u članku.
05:22
You said, "I can say this
with absolute certainty
with absolute certainty
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Rekli ste: "Apsolutno sam siguran
05:24
because I know how markets work."
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jer znam kako tržište funkcionira."
05:26
Ray Dalio: I can say
with absolute certainty
with absolute certainty
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Ray Dalio: Apsolutno sam siguran
05:28
that if you look at the liquidity base
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da ako pogledate bazu likvidnosti
05:30
in the corporations
and the world as a whole,
and the world as a whole,
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u korporacijama i svijetu u cijelini,
05:33
that there's such reduced
level of liquidity
level of liquidity
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smanjena je razina likvidnosti
05:35
that you can't return
to an era of stagflation."
to an era of stagflation."
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koju ne možete vratiti
u doba stagflacije."
u doba stagflacije."
05:39
I look at that now, I think,
"What an arrogant jerk!"
"What an arrogant jerk!"
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Kada to vidim sada, pomislim:
"Kakva arogantna budala!"
"Kakva arogantna budala!"
05:42
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
05:45
I was so arrogant, and I was so wrong.
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Bio sam arogantan i potpuno u krivu.
05:48
I mean, while the debt crisis happened,
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Mislim, dužnička se kriza dogodila,
05:50
the stock market and the economy
went up rather than going down,
went up rather than going down,
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ali burza i gospodarstvo
išli su prema gore, a ne prema dolje
išli su prema gore, a ne prema dolje
05:54
and I lost so much money
for myself and for my clients
for myself and for my clients
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i izgubio sam puno novaca,
svojih i od svojih klijenata,
svojih i od svojih klijenata,
05:59
that I had to shut down
my operation pretty much,
my operation pretty much,
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toliko da sam morao
gotovo pa zatvoriti tvrtku,
gotovo pa zatvoriti tvrtku,
06:03
I had to let almost everybody go.
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morao sam skoro sve otpustiti.
06:05
And these were like extended family,
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A bili su mi kao šira obitelj,
06:07
I was heartbroken.
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srce mi se slamalo.
06:09
And I had lost so much money
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A izgubio sam toliko novaca
06:10
that I had to borrow
4,000 dollars from my dad
4,000 dollars from my dad
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da sam morao posuditi
4.000 dolara od oca
4.000 dolara od oca
06:14
to help to pay my family bills.
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da bih mogao platiti režije.
06:16
It was one of the most painful
experiences of my life ...
experiences of my life ...
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To je bilo jedno od najbolnijih
iskustava u mom životu...
iskustava u mom životu...
06:21
but it turned out to be
one of the greatest experiences of my life
one of the greatest experiences of my life
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ali ispalo je da mi je to
jedno od najboljh iskustava u životu
jedno od najboljh iskustava u životu
06:25
because it changed my attitude
about decision-making.
about decision-making.
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jer mi je promijenilo stav
o procesu donošenja odluka.
o procesu donošenja odluka.
06:28
Rather than thinking, "I'm right,"
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Umjesto da mislim: "U pravu sam,"
06:31
I started to ask myself,
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počeo sam se pitati:
06:33
"How do I know I'm right?"
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"Kako znam da sam u pravu?"
06:36
I gained a humility that I needed
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Stekao sam skromnost
koja mi je bila potrebna
koja mi je bila potrebna
06:38
in order to balance my audacity.
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da bih uravnotežio svoju smjelost.
06:41
I wanted to find the smartest
people who would disagree with me
people who would disagree with me
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Htio sam pronaći najpametnije ljude
koji bi mi proturiječili
koji bi mi proturiječili
06:46
to try to understand their perspective
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kako bih pokušao
shvatiti njihovo stajalište
shvatiti njihovo stajalište
06:48
or to have them
stress test my perspective.
stress test my perspective.
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ili koji bi ispitali
utemeljenost mojeg stajališta.
utemeljenost mojeg stajališta.
06:51
I wanted to make an idea meritocracy.
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Htio sam stvoriti meritokraciju ideja.
06:54
In other words,
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Drugim riječima,
06:55
not an autocracy in which
I would lead and others would follow
I would lead and others would follow
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ne autokraciju u kojoj bih
ja vodio, a drugi slijedili,
ja vodio, a drugi slijedili,
06:59
and not a democracy in which everybody's
points of view were equally valued,
points of view were equally valued,
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ni demokraciju u kojoj stajališta
svih jednako vrijede,
svih jednako vrijede,
07:02
but I wanted to have an idea meritocracy
in which the best ideas would win out.
in which the best ideas would win out.
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već meritokraciju ideja
u kojoj najbolje ideje pobjeđuju.
u kojoj najbolje ideje pobjeđuju.
07:08
And in order to do that,
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Da bih to postigao,
07:09
I realized that we would need
radical truthfulness
radical truthfulness
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shvatio sam da moramo
postići radikalnu iskrenost
postići radikalnu iskrenost
07:12
and radical transparency.
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i radikalnu transparentnost.
07:14
What I mean by radical truthfulness
and radical transparency
and radical transparency
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Pod radikalnom iskrenošću
i radikalnom transparentnošću
i radikalnom transparentnošću
07:18
is people needed to say
what they really believed
what they really believed
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smatram da ljudi moraju reći
ono što stvarno vjeruju
ono što stvarno vjeruju
07:21
and to see everything.
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i moraju sve vidjeti.
07:23
And we literally
tape almost all conversations
tape almost all conversations
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I mi doslovno
snimamo gotovo sve razgovore
snimamo gotovo sve razgovore
07:27
and let everybody see everything,
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i dopuštamo svima da vide sve,
07:29
because if we didn't do that,
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jer da to ne radimo,
07:30
we couldn't really have
an idea meritocracy.
an idea meritocracy.
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ne bismo mogli imati meritokraciju ideja.
07:34
In order to have an idea meritocracy,
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Da bismo postigli meritokraciju ideja,
07:38
we have let people speak
and say what they want.
and say what they want.
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moramo dopustiti ljudima
da govore ono što žele.
da govore ono što žele.
07:40
Just to give you an example,
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Na primjer,
07:42
this is an email from Jim Haskel --
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ovo je e-poruka Jima Haskela --
07:45
somebody who works for me --
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osobe koja radi za mene --
07:46
and this was available
to everybody in the company.
to everybody in the company.
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koja je bila dostupna
svima u tvrtki.
svima u tvrtki.
07:49
"Ray, you deserve a 'D-'
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"Ray, zaslužio si dvojku
07:52
for your performance
today in the meeting ...
today in the meeting ...
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za izvedbu na današnjem sastanku...
07:54
you did not prepare at all well
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uopće se nisi pripremio
07:56
because there is no way
you could have been that disorganized."
you could have been that disorganized."
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jer nema drugog objašnjenja
za tu tvoju neorganiziranost."
za tu tvoju neorganiziranost."
08:01
Isn't that great?
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Nije li to sjajno?
08:02
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
08:04
That's great.
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To je sjajno.
08:05
It's great because, first of all,
I needed feedback like that.
I needed feedback like that.
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Sjajno je jer, prvo i osnovno,
trebao mi je takav komentar.
trebao mi je takav komentar.
08:08
I need feedback like that.
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Trebaju mi takvi osvrti.
08:09
And it's great because if I don't let Jim,
and people like Jim,
and people like Jim,
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I sjajno je jer ako ne dopustim Jimu
i ljudima poput Jima
i ljudima poput Jima
08:13
to express their points of view,
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da izraze svoje stajalište,
08:14
our relationship wouldn't be the same.
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naš odnos ne bi bio isti.
08:17
And if I didn't make that public
for everybody to see,
for everybody to see,
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A da to nije javno dostupno svima,
08:20
we wouldn't have an idea meritocracy.
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ne bismo imali meritokraciju ideja.
08:23
So for that last 25 years
that's how we've been operating.
that's how we've been operating.
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I to je način na koji radimo
zadnjih 25 godina.
zadnjih 25 godina.
08:27
We've been operating
with this radical transparency
with this radical transparency
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Radimo uz takvu
radikalnu transparentnost
radikalnu transparentnost
08:30
and then collecting these principles,
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i skupljamo ta načela,
08:33
largely from making mistakes,
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uvelike iz pogrešaka koje činimo,
08:35
and then embedding
those principles into algorithms.
those principles into algorithms.
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a zatim ta načela
ugrađujemo u algoritme.
ugrađujemo u algoritme.
08:39
And then those algorithms provide --
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A ti algoritmi pružaju --
08:42
we're following the algorithms
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slijedimo algoritme
08:44
in parallel with our thinking.
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u kombinaciji s našim idejama.
08:47
That has been how we've run
the investment business,
the investment business,
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Na taj način vodimo ulagački posao
08:50
and it's how we also deal
with the people management.
with the people management.
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i na taj način vodimo zaposlenike.
08:53
In order to give you a glimmer
into what this looks like,
into what this looks like,
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Da bih vam pružio uvid
u kako to izgleda,
u kako to izgleda,
08:57
I'd like to take you into a meeting
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vodim vas na sastanak
08:59
and introduce you to a tool of ours
called the "Dot Collector"
called the "Dot Collector"
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kako bih vam predstavio naš alat
"Dot Collector"
"Dot Collector"
09:02
that helps us do this.
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koji nam to omogućuje.
09:07
A week after the US election,
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Tjedan nakon američkih izbora,
09:09
our research team held a meeting
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naš istraživački tim održao je sastanak
09:11
to discuss what a Trump presidency
would mean for the US economy.
would mean for the US economy.
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kako bismo raspravili što će Trump
kao predsjednik značiti za gospodarstvo.
kao predsjednik značiti za gospodarstvo.
09:16
Naturally, people had
different opinions on the matter
different opinions on the matter
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Naravno, ljudi su imali
različita mišljenja o tom problemu
različita mišljenja o tom problemu
09:18
and how we were
approaching the discussion.
approaching the discussion.
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i o tome kako pristupamo raspravi.
09:21
The "Dot Collector" collects these views.
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"Dot Collector" skuplja ta mišljenja.
09:24
It has a list of a few dozen attributes,
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Ima popis nekoliko desetaka atributa,
09:26
so whenever somebody thinks something
about another person's thinking,
about another person's thinking,
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i kad netko ima mišljenje
o mišljenju druge osobe,
o mišljenju druge osobe,
09:31
it's easy for them
to convey their assessment;
to convey their assessment;
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lako mu je prenijeti svoju ocjenu;
09:33
they simply note the attribute
and provide a rating from one to 10.
and provide a rating from one to 10.
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jednostavno zabilježe atribut
i ocijene ga ocjenom od jedan do 10.
i ocijene ga ocjenom od jedan do 10.
09:39
For example, as the meeting began,
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Na primjer, kad je sastanak započeo,
09:41
a researcher named Jen rated me a three --
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istraživačica Jen dala mi je ocjenu tri --
09:45
in other words, badly --
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drugim riječima, lošec--
09:47
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
09:49
for not showing a good balance
of open-mindedness and assertiveness.
of open-mindedness and assertiveness.
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jer nisam pokazao uravnoteženost
između nepristranosti i samopouzdanja.
između nepristranosti i samopouzdanja.
09:54
As the meeting transpired,
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Kako je sastanak odmicao,
09:55
Jen's assessments of people
added up like this.
added up like this.
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ovo su bile Jenine ocjene drugih.
09:59
Others in the room
have different opinions.
have different opinions.
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Drugi u prostoriji
imaju različite stavove.
imaju različite stavove.
10:02
That's normal.
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To je normalno.
10:03
Different people are always
going to have different opinions.
going to have different opinions.
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Različiti ljudi uvijek imaju
različite stavove.
različite stavove.
10:06
And who knows who's right?
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I tko zna tko je u pravu?
10:09
Let's look at just what people thought
about how I was doing.
about how I was doing.
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Pogledajmo što su ljudi mislili
o mojoj izvedbi.
o mojoj izvedbi.
10:13
Some people thought I did well,
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Neki su mislili da sam bio dobar,
10:15
others, poorly.
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drugi da sam bio loš.
10:18
With each of these views,
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Sa svakim od tih stavova,
10:19
we can explore the thinking
behind the numbers.
behind the numbers.
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možemo ispitati svoje stavove
koji se nalaze iza brojeva.
koji se nalaze iza brojeva.
10:22
Here's what Jen and Larry said.
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Ovo su rekli Jen i Larry.
10:25
Note that everyone
gets to express their thinking,
gets to express their thinking,
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Vidite kako svi
imaju pravo izraziti svoje mišljenje,
imaju pravo izraziti svoje mišljenje,
10:28
including their critical thinking,
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uključujući i kritično
10:30
regardless of their position
in the company.
in the company.
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bez obzira na položaj u tvrtki.
10:33
Jen, who's 24 years old
and right out of college,
and right out of college,
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Jen, koja ima 24 godine
i tek je završila fakultet,
i tek je završila fakultet,
10:36
can tell me, the CEO,
that I'm approaching things terribly.
that I'm approaching things terribly.
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može reći meni, izvršnom direktoru,
da užasno pristupam stvarima.
da užasno pristupam stvarima.
10:40
This tool helps people
both express their opinions
both express their opinions
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Ovaj alat omogućuje ljudima
da izraze svoje mišljenje
da izraze svoje mišljenje
10:44
and then separate themselves
from their opinions
from their opinions
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i da se odvoje od svojih stavova
10:47
to see things from a higher level.
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kako bi stvari razmotrili s više razine.
10:50
When Jen and others shift their attentions
from inputting their own opinions
from inputting their own opinions
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Kada Jen i ostali preusmjere pažnju
s unosa svog mišljenja
s unosa svog mišljenja
10:55
to looking down on the whole screen,
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na cijeli zaslon,
10:58
their perspective changes.
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njihovo se stajalište promijeni.
11:00
They see their own opinions
as just one of many
as just one of many
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Vide da je njihovo mišljenje
tek jedno od mnogih
tek jedno od mnogih
11:03
and naturally start asking themselves,
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i prirodno je da se zapitaju
11:06
"How do I know my opinion is right?"
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"Kako znam da je moje mišljenje ispravno?"
11:09
That shift in perspective is like going
from seeing in one dimension
from seeing in one dimension
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Ta je promjena stajališta poput
prelaska iz jedne dimenzije
prelaska iz jedne dimenzije
11:13
to seeing in multiple dimensions.
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u više dimenzija.
11:15
And it shifts the conversation
from arguing over our opinions
from arguing over our opinions
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I preusmjerava naš razgovor
od rasprave oko mišljenja
od rasprave oko mišljenja
11:19
to figuring out objective criteria
for determining which opinions are best.
for determining which opinions are best.
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na razmatranje objektivnih kriterija
za utvrđivanje najboljeg mišljenja.
za utvrđivanje najboljeg mišljenja.
11:24
Behind the "Dot Collector"
is a computer that is watching.
is a computer that is watching.
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Iza aplikacije "Dot Collector"
stoji računalo koje nadzire.
stoji računalo koje nadzire.
11:29
It watches what all
these people are thinking
these people are thinking
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Nadzire što svi ti ljudi misle
11:31
and it correlates that
with how they think.
with how they think.
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i uspoređuje to
s načinom na koji razmišljaju.
s načinom na koji razmišljaju.
11:33
And it communicates advice
back to each of them based on that.
back to each of them based on that.
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Zatim svakome pojedinačno
šalje savjete na temelju te usporedbe.
šalje savjete na temelju te usporedbe.
11:38
Then it draws the data
from all the meetings
from all the meetings
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Zatim povlači podatke sa svih sastanaka
11:41
to create a pointilist painting
of what people are like
of what people are like
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i stvara sliku ljudi
11:45
and how they think.
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i načina na koji razmišljaju.
11:47
And it does that guided by algorithms.
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A to stvara pomoću algoritama.
11:50
Knowing what people are like helps
to match them better with their jobs.
to match them better with their jobs.
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Ako znate kakvi su ljudi,
lakše ćete znati za koji su posao.
lakše ćete znati za koji su posao.
11:55
For example,
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Na primjer,
11:56
a creative thinker who is unreliable
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kreativan mislilac koji je nepouzdan
11:58
might be matched up with someone
who's reliable but not creative.
who's reliable but not creative.
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može se upariti s nekim
tko je pouzdan, ali nije kreativan.
tko je pouzdan, ali nije kreativan.
12:02
Knowing what people are like
also allows us to decide
also allows us to decide
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Ako znamo kakvi su ljudi,
lakše donosimo odluke
lakše donosimo odluke
12:05
what responsibilities to give them
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o odgovornostima koje im predajemo
12:07
and to weigh our decisions
based on people's merits.
based on people's merits.
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i odlučujemo na temelju
njihovih zasluga.
njihovih zasluga.
12:12
We call it their believability.
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To zovemo vjerodostojnošću.
12:14
Here's an example of a vote that we took
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Ovo je primjer našeg glasovanja
12:16
where the majority
of people felt one way ...
of people felt one way ...
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gdje je većina mislila jedno...
12:20
but when we weighed the views
based on people's merits,
based on people's merits,
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ali zatim smo ocijenili stajališta
na temelju zasluga
na temelju zasluga
12:23
the answer was completely different.
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i odgovor je bio potpuno drukčiji.
12:26
This process allows us to make decisions
not based on democracy,
not based on democracy,
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Proces nam omogućuje da donosimo odluke
ne na temelju demokracije,
ne na temelju demokracije,
12:31
not based on autocracy,
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ne na temelju autokracije,
12:33
but based on algorithms that take
people's believability into consideration.
people's believability into consideration.
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već na temelju algoritama koji
uzimaju u obzir vjerodostojnost ljudi.
uzimaju u obzir vjerodostojnost ljudi.
12:41
Yup, we really do this.
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Da, stvarno to radimo.
12:43
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
12:46
We do it because it eliminates
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To radimo zato što to otklanja
12:49
what I believe to be
one of the greatest tragedies of mankind,
one of the greatest tragedies of mankind,
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ono što smatram
najvećom tragedijom čovječanstva,
najvećom tragedijom čovječanstva,
12:53
and that is people arrogantly,
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a to je da ljudi arogantno,
12:56
naïvely holding opinions
in their minds that are wrong,
in their minds that are wrong,
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naivno imaju stajališta
koja su kriva,
koja su kriva,
13:01
and acting on them,
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i djeluju u skladu s njima
13:02
and not putting them out there
to stress test them.
to stress test them.
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umjesto da ih preispitaju.
13:06
And that's a tragedy.
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To je tragedija.
13:07
And we do it because it elevates ourselves
above our own opinions
above our own opinions
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To radimo jer nas uzdiže
od vlastitih mišljenja
od vlastitih mišljenja
13:12
so that we start to see things
through everybody's eyes,
through everybody's eyes,
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tako da vidimo stvari tuđim očima,
13:15
and we see things collectively.
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i vidimo stvari kolektivno.
13:18
Collective decision-making is so much
better than individual decision-making
better than individual decision-making
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Kolektivno odlučivanje puno je bolje
od individualnog odlučivanja.
od individualnog odlučivanja.
13:22
if it's done well.
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Ako se radi ispravno.
13:24
It's been the secret sauce
behind our success.
behind our success.
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To je tajni sastojak našeg uspjeha.
13:27
It's why we've made
more money for our clients
more money for our clients
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To je razlog zašto
zarađujemo za svoje klijente
zarađujemo za svoje klijente
13:29
than any other hedge fund in existence
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više od ostalih hedge fondova
13:31
and made money
23 out of the last 26 years.
23 out of the last 26 years.
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i bili smo na dobitku
23 od 26 proteklih godina.
23 od 26 proteklih godina.
13:35
So what's the problem
with being radically truthful
with being radically truthful
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U čemu je problem
kod radikalne iskrenosti
kod radikalne iskrenosti
13:40
and radically transparent with each other?
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i radikalne transparentnosti među ljudima?
13:45
People say it's emotionally difficult.
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Kažu da je emotivno teško.
13:48
Critics say it's a formula
for a brutal work environment.
for a brutal work environment.
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Kritičari kažu da je to formula
za okrutno radno okruženje.
za okrutno radno okruženje.
13:53
Neuroscientists tell me it has to do
with how are brains are prewired.
with how are brains are prewired.
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Neuroznanstvenici kažu da je stvar
u tome kako nam je mozak namješten.
u tome kako nam je mozak namješten.
13:58
There's a part of our brain
that would like to know our mistakes
that would like to know our mistakes
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Postoji dio mozga
koji želi znati naše pogreške
koji želi znati naše pogreške
14:01
and like to look at our weaknesses
so we could do better.
so we could do better.
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i želi sagledati naše slabosti
tako da budemo bolji.
tako da budemo bolji.
14:06
I'm told that that's
the prefrontal cortex.
the prefrontal cortex.
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Rekli su mi da je to
prefrontalni korteks.
prefrontalni korteks.
14:09
And then there's a part of our brain
which views all of this as attacks.
which views all of this as attacks.
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A postoji i dio mozga
koji na sve to gleda kao na napad.
koji na sve to gleda kao na napad.
14:13
I'm told that that's the amygdala.
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Rekli su mi da je to amigdala.
14:16
In other words,
there are two you's inside you:
there are two you's inside you:
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Drugim riječima,
u vama postoje dvije osobe:
u vama postoje dvije osobe:
14:19
there's an emotional you
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emocionalna
14:20
and there's an intellectual you,
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i intelektualna
14:22
and often they're at odds,
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i često su u sukobu
14:24
and often they work against you.
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i često rade protiv vas.
14:27
It's been our experience
that we can win this battle.
that we can win this battle.
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Naše je iskustvo da možemo
dobiti tu bitku.
dobiti tu bitku.
14:30
We win it as a group.
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Pobjeđujemo kao grupa.
14:33
It takes about 18 months typically
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Obično je potrebno 18 mjeseci
14:35
to find that most people
prefer operating this way,
prefer operating this way,
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da se uvidi da većina
više voli raditi na taj način,
više voli raditi na taj način,
14:38
with this radical transparency
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radikalno transparentno,
14:40
than to be operating
in a more opaque environment.
in a more opaque environment.
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nego u mutnijem okruženju.
14:43
There's not politics,
there's not the brutality of --
there's not the brutality of --
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Nema politike, nema okrutnosti --
14:48
you know, all of that hidden,
behind-the-scenes --
behind-the-scenes --
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znate, svega toga skrivenog, zakulisnog --
14:50
there's an idea meritocracy
where people can speak up.
where people can speak up.
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postoji meritokracija ideja
u kojoj se ljudi mogu izraziti.
u kojoj se ljudi mogu izraziti.
14:53
And that's been great.
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I sjajno nam je.
14:54
It's given us more effective work,
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Omogućila nam je učinkovitiji rad,
14:56
and it's given us
more effective relationships.
more effective relationships.
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i učinkovitije odnose.
14:59
But it's not for everybody.
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Ali nije za svakoga.
15:01
We found something like
25 or 30 percent of the population
25 or 30 percent of the population
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Naučili smo da za
25 do 30 posto stanovništva
25 do 30 posto stanovništva
15:04
it's just not for.
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to ne funkcionira.
15:06
And by the way,
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Usput,
15:07
when I say radical transparency,
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kada govorim
o radikalnoj transparentnosti,
o radikalnoj transparentnosti,
15:09
I'm not saying transparency
about everything.
about everything.
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ne mislim na opću transparentnost.
15:11
I mean, you don't have to tell somebody
that their bald spot is growing
that their bald spot is growing
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Mislim, ne morate nekome reći
da je oćelavio
da je oćelavio
15:15
or their baby's ugly.
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niti da ima ružnu bebu.
15:17
So, I'm just talking about --
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Govorim o --
15:19
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
15:20
talking about the important things.
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govorim o važnim stvarima.
15:22
So --
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Znači --
15:24
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
15:28
So when you leave this room,
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Znači, kada napustite
ovu prostoriju
ovu prostoriju
15:30
I'd like you to observe yourself
in conversations with others.
in conversations with others.
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želim da se promotrite
u razgovorima s drugima.
u razgovorima s drugima.
15:35
Imagine if you knew
what they were really thinking,
what they were really thinking,
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Zamislite da znate
što stvarno misle,
što stvarno misle,
15:39
and imagine if you knew
what they were really like ...
what they were really like ...
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zamislite da znate kakvi su stvarno...
15:43
and imagine if they knew
what you were really thinking
what you were really thinking
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i zamislite da oni znaju
što vi stvarno mislite
što vi stvarno mislite
15:47
and what were really like.
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i kakvi ste stvarno.
15:50
It would certainly clear things up a lot
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To bi razjasnilo mnoge stvari
15:52
and make your operations
together more effective.
together more effective.
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i omogućilo vam učinkovitije djelovanje.
15:55
I think it will improve
your relationships.
your relationships.
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Mislim da bi unaprijedilo odnose.
15:58
Now imagine that you can have algorithms
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Sada zamislite da imate algoritme
16:01
that will help you gather
all of that information
all of that information
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koji će vam pomoći
prikupiti sve te informacije
prikupiti sve te informacije
16:05
and even help you make decisions
in an idea-meritocratic way.
in an idea-meritocratic way.
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i pomoći u donošenju odluka
pomoću meritokracije ideja.
pomoću meritokracije ideja.
16:12
This sort of radical transparency
is coming at you
is coming at you
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Takva radikalna transparentnost dolazi
16:17
and it is going to affect your life.
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i utjecat će na vaš život.
16:19
And in my opinion,
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I po mom mišljenju,
16:21
it's going to be wonderful.
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bit će čudesno.
16:23
So I hope it is as wonderful for you
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Nadam se da će i vama biti čudesno
16:25
as it is for me.
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kao što je meni.
16:27
Thank you very much.
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Puno hvala.
16:28
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Ray Dalio - Hedge fund chairRay Dalio is the founder, chair and co-chief investment officer of Bridgewater Associates, a global leader in institutional portfolio management and the largest hedge fund in the world.
Why you should listen
Dalio started Bridgewater out of his two-bedroom apartment in New York City in 1975 and has grown it into the fifth most important private company in the U.S. (according to Fortune magazine). Because of the firm’s many industry-changing innovations over its 40-year history, he has been called the “Steve Jobs of investing” by aiCIO magazine and named one of TIME magazine’s "100 Most Influential People."
Dalio attributes Bridgewater’s success to its unique culture. He describes it as “a believability-weighted idea meritocracy” in which the people strive for “meaningful work and meaningful relationships through radical truth and radical transparency.” He has explained this approach in his book Principles, which has been downloaded more than three million times and has produced considerable curiosity and controversy.
Ray Dalio | Speaker | TED.com