TED@State
Stewart Brand: 4 environmental 'heresies'
斯图尔特·伯兰特:关于环保的四个“异端观点”
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斯图尔特·伯兰特曾引领了上世纪六七十年代的环保运动，现在，他开始重新考虑关于城市，核能，转基因改造和人工气候改造（地球工程）的问题。这是他在美国国务院的一个演讲，讲述的是他的新书《地球的法则》的主要观点。
Stewart Brand - Environmentalist, futurist
Since the counterculture '60s, Stewart Brand has been creating our internet-worked world. Now, with biotech accelerating four times faster than digital technology, Stewart Brand has a bold new plan ... Full bio
Since the counterculture '60s, Stewart Brand has been creating our internet-worked world. Now, with biotech accelerating four times faster than digital technology, Stewart Brand has a bold new plan ... Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
Because of what I'm about to say,
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因为我等会谈论的议题的缘故
00:18
I really should establish my green credentials.
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我想我必须首先讲述一下我的绿色情结
00:21
When I was a small boy, I took my pledge
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当我还是一个小男孩，我承诺
00:23
as an American, to save and faithfully defend from waste
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作为一名美国人，要保护和忠实地捍卫
00:26
the natural resources of my country,
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我国的自然资源。
00:28
its air, soil and minerals, its forests, waters and wildlife.
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这包括空气，土壤，矿物资源，森林，水资源和野生动物。
00:31
And I've stuck to that.
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我还坚持这一承诺。
00:33
Stanford, I majored in ecology and evolution.
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在斯坦福大学，我主修生态学和生物进化学。
00:37
1968, I put out the Whole Earth Catalog. Was "mister natural" for a while.
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1968年我创办了《地球目录》 一段时间我成了 “环保先生”。
00:41
And then worked for the Jerry Brown administration.
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然后就职于杰里布朗政府。
00:44
The Brown administration, and a bunch of my friends,
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布朗政府期间，我和一些朋友们
00:47
basically leveled the energy efficiency of California,
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主要使加州能源效率平衡。
00:50
so it's the same now, 30 years later,
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因此到现在，30年后，
00:53
even though our economy has gone up 80 percent, per capita.
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尽管我们的人均经济提高了百分之八十。
00:57
And we are putting out less greenhouse gasses than any other state.
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但我们加州比任何其他州排放越来越少的温室气体。
01:00
California is basically the equivalent of Europe, in this.
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在减少温室气体排放这点，加州基本上相当于欧洲。
01:03
This year, Whole Earth Catalog has a supplement that I'll preview today,
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今年，地球目录有一个补充，今天，我将
01:08
called Whole Earth Discipline.
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其称为“地球规则”。
01:11
The dominant demographic event of our time
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现在主要人口事件
01:13
is this screamingly rapid urbanization
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是我们已经经历过的这种令人讶异的快速城市化
01:16
that we have going on.
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进程。
01:18
By mid-century we'll be about 80 percent urban,
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到本世纪中叶将有大约80%要城市化。
01:22
and that's mostly in the developing world,
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而这主要是在发展中世界
01:25
where that's happening.
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要发生的事情。
01:27
It's interesting, because history is driven to a large degree
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有趣的是，在很大程度上
01:30
by the size of cities.
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城市的大小往往也决定了历史的发展
01:32
The developing world now has all of the biggest cities,
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现在最大的城市都在发展中国家
01:35
and they are developing three times faster than the developed countries,
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他们的发展比发达国家的发展快3倍。
01:38
and nine times bigger.
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规模是我们的9倍
01:40
It's qualitatively different.
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这是有质的不同。
01:43
They are the drivers of history, as we see by looking at history.
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当我们回顾历史时，它们是历史转变的驱动力。
01:45
1,000 years ago this is what the world looked like.
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一千年前的世界是什么样子。
01:49
Well we now have a distribution of urban power
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那么，我们现在有一个城市发展分布
01:52
similar to what we had 1,000 years ago.
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类似于我们在1000年前城市分布。
01:55
In other words, the rise of the West,
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换言之，西方的崛起，
01:57
dramatic as it was, is over.
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尽管有如一出戏剧，但它已经结束了。
02:01
The aggregate numbers are absolutely overwhelming:
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总人口数有压倒性的优势。
02:04
1.3 million people a week coming to town,
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每星期130万人来到城镇，
02:07
decade after decade.
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年复一年。
02:09
What's really going on?
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到底是怎么回事？
02:11
Well, what's going on is the villages of the world are emptying out.
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如今全球各地的村庄正变得荒芜起来
02:14
Subsistence farming is drying up basically.
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农田没人管，因为人都迁移到了城市
02:17
People are following opportunity into town.
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城市就是机会
02:19
And this is why.
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就这么简单
02:21
I used to have a very romantic idea about villages,
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我曾经有一个关于村庄很浪漫的看法，
02:23
and it's because I never lived in one.
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这是因为我从来没有在村庄居住过。
02:26
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
02:27
Because in town --
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因为在城市 -
02:29
this is the bustling squatter city
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这是熙熙攘攘的，寮屋搭建的基贝拉城
02:31
of Kibera, near Nairobi --
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它靠近内罗毕 -
02:35
they see action. They see opportunity.
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在城市，有活动，有机会。
02:37
They see a cash economy that they were not able to participate in
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有现金经济交易，使得人们不愿回归到
02:40
back in the subsistence farm.
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仅能维持生计的农业耕作上
02:43
As you go around these places there's plenty of aesthetics.
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去到那些地方，你会发现很多美丽的景象
02:45
There is plenty going on.
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还有很多事情发生。
02:47
They are poor, but they are intensely urban. And they are intensely creative.
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他们是穷人，但他们高度城市化，而且他们有很强的创造性。
02:51
The aggregate numbers now
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现在总人口数
02:53
are that basically squatters,
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基本是住寮屋的人，
02:56
all one billion of them, are building the urban world,
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他们中10亿人口正在建设他们的城市世界，
02:59
which means they're building the world --
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也意味着他们正在建设新世界。
03:02
personally, one by one, family by family,
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那是一种人与人的连结，一个接一个，一个家庭接一个家庭，
03:04
clan by clan, neighborhood by neighborhood.
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家族联系着家族，左邻右舍的。
03:07
They start flimsy and they get substantial as time goes by.
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他们开始举步维艰，随着时间的推移，他们取得实质性进展。
03:11
They even build their own infrastructure.
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他们甚至建立起他们自己的基础设施。
03:13
Well, steal their own infrastructure, at first.
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当然开始的时候是偷盗他们的基础设施，
03:16
Cable TV, water, the whole gamut, all gets stolen.
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有线电视，水，整个范围，所有都被侵占，
03:19
And then gradually gentrifies.
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然后逐渐修复改善。
03:23
It is not the case that slums undermine prosperity,
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贫民窟破坏繁荣，情况实际不是这样。
03:26
not the working slums; they help create prosperity.
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贫民窟的工作反而帮助创造繁荣。
03:30
So in a town like Mumbai, which is half slums,
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孟买，这个城市有一半的城市贫民区，
03:33
it's 1/6th of the GDP of India.
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但那里却创造了印度国内生产总值的六分之一。
03:36
Social capital in the slums is at its most urban and dense.
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贫民窟的社会资本是高度城市化和最密集的。
03:41
These people are valuable as a group.
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贫民窟里的人作为一个整体是最有价值的
03:44
And that's how they work.
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这也正是他们的组织形式
03:46
There is a lot of people who think about all these poor people,
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谈及贫民窟，很多人会想到
03:49
"Oh there's terrible things. We've got to fix their housing."
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“哦，那里太糟糕了。我们必须解决他们的住房问题。”
03:51
It used to be, "Oh we've got to get them phone service."
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还有“哦，我们得让他们有电话服务。”
03:53
Now they're showing us how they do their phone service.
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现在，他们向我们展示他们是如何做电话服务的。
03:56
Famine mostly is a rural event now.
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现在饥荒大多是农村的事情。
03:58
There are things they care about.
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贫民窟的居民关心的是这些事情。
04:00
And this is where we can help.
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而这正是我们可以帮助的方面。
04:03
And the nations they're in can help.
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政府也可以提供帮助。
04:05
And they are helping each other solve these issues.
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这样互相帮助，就可以解决类似问题。
04:08
And you go to a nice dense place like this slum in Mumbai.
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你去一个像孟买这样的密集贫民区。
04:12
You look at that lane on the right.
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你看关于右边的道路。
04:14
And you can ask, "Okay what's going on there?"
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你会问：“那会发生什么？”
04:16
The answer is, "Everything."
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答案是，“一切都在发生。”
04:19
This is better than a mall. It's much denser.
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这比一个商场好得多。它的密度大的多。
04:22
It's much more interactive.
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它更互动。
04:24
And the scale is terrific.
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规模惊人。
04:26
The main event is, these are not people crushed by poverty.
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关键是，人们不是被贫困折磨，
04:30
These are people busy getting out of poverty
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而是人们忙于拼命要摆脱贫困
04:32
just as fast as they can.
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尽他们所能，越快越好。
04:34
They're helping each other do it.
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他们互相帮助做到这一点。
04:36
They're doing it through an outlaw thing,
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他们通过非法去做的事情，
04:38
the informal economy.
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称为非正规经济。
04:40
The informal economy, it's sort of like dark energy in astrophysics:
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非正规经济，它好比在天体物理学里的暗能量。
04:44
it's not supposed to be there, but it's huge.
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这本不应该有的，但它是巨大的。
04:46
We don't understand how it works yet, but we have to.
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我们还不明白它是如何运作的。但我们必须理解。
04:49
Furthermore, people in the informal economy,
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此外，非正规经济，
04:51
the gray economy --
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或称灰色经济
04:53
as time goes by,
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里头的人
04:55
crime is happening around them. And they can join the criminal world,
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久而久之，也有可能走向犯罪。要么加入黑社会
04:59
or they can join the legitimate world.
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要么进入正常的法治社会
05:03
We should be able to make that choice
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我们应该可以帮助他们
05:05
easier for them to get toward the legitimate world,
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使得她们更容易走进法治社会
05:07
because if we don't, they will go toward the criminal world.
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因为如果我们不这样做，他们将成为黑社会的一员
05:11
There's all kinds of activity.
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这会有多种活动影响。
05:14
In Dharavi the slum performs not only
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在达拉维贫民窟不仅有
05:16
a lot of services for itself,
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很多为自己的服务，
05:18
but it performs services for the city at large.
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还为整个城市提供服务。
05:21
And one of the main events are these ad-hoc schools.
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主要活动之一是这些特设学校。
05:24
Parents pool their money to hire some local teachers
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家长集合钱去聘请一些地方教师
05:28
to a private, tiny, unofficial school.
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到一所小的，私人的，非官方学校教书。
05:30
Education is more possible in the cities, and that changes the world.
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在城市，教育是更有可能的，并改变了世界。
05:35
So you see some interesting, typical, urban things.
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所以你看到一些有趣的，典型的，城市的东西。
05:38
So one thing slammed up against another,
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贫民窟和富人区分别开来，
05:40
such as in Sao Paulo here.
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例如在圣保罗这里。
05:42
That's what cities do. That's how they create value,
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这就是城市所创造的价值，
05:44
is by slamming things together.
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有机地融合起来。
05:46
In this case, supply right next to demand.
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在这种情况下，供应需求紧密相连。
05:48
So the maids and the gardeners and the guards
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就如，在这个城市左边，有着活生生的生活。
05:50
that live in this lively part of town on the left
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这里生活的女佣、园丁和警卫人员
05:53
walk to work, in the boring, rich neighborhood.
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步行到一个枯燥，富有的邻居家工作。
05:58
Proximity is amazing.
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邻近性是惊人的。
06:01
We are learning about how dense proximity can be.
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我们正在研究这密集邻近性。
06:16
Connectivity between the city and the country
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城市和国家之间的邻近连接，
06:19
is what's going to keep the country good,
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会使国家变好趋于完善。
06:22
because the city has interesting ways of doing things.
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因为城市有很多有趣方法。
06:34
This is what makes cities --
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这可以使城市--
06:36
(Applause)
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（鼓掌）
06:40
this is what makes cities so green in the developing world.
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这可以使发展中世界的城市变得更加绿色环保。
06:43
Because people leave the poverty trap, an ecological disaster
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因为人们要摆脱贫困陷阱，一个赖以生存的农业生态灾难
06:46
of subsistence farms, and head to town.
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而奔往城市。
06:49
And when they're gone the natural environment
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而当他们离开农村后，自然环境
06:51
starts to come back very rapidly.
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开始很快恢复。
06:53
And those who remain in the village can shift over to cash crops
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而那些留在乡村的人则可以种植经济作物
06:56
to send food to the new growing markets in town.
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并且将粮食卖到城市里去
07:00
So if you want to save a village, you do it with a good road,
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所以，如果你想保留一个村庄，你得有良好的道路，
07:03
or with a good cell phone connection, and ideally some grid electrical power.
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或有好的手机连接信号。最好配有一些电网电力。
07:07
So the event is: we're a city planet. That just happened.
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我们都在地球城市生活。这情况转变
07:10
More than half.
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已超过一半城市化。
07:12
The numbers are considerable. A billion live in the squatter cities now.
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这些数字是相当大的。 现在10亿人生活在城市的寮屋。
07:15
Another billion is expected.
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未来还将有10亿人要搬到城市
07:18
That's more than a sixth of humanity living a certain way.
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这超过六分之一的人们以他们的方式生活着。
07:21
And that will determine a lot of how we function.
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这将影响很大。
07:25
Now, for us environmentalists,
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现在，对于我们这些环保主义者来说，
07:27
maybe the greenest thing about the cities is they diffuse the population bomb.
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也许城市最环保的一点就是城市使得人口炸弹延迟引爆
07:30
People get into town.
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人们进入城市。
07:33
The immediately have fewer children.
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马上就想到不去生那么多孩子。
07:35
They don't even have to get rich yet. Just the opportunity of
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他们甚至还没有富起来。要在城市求得生存
07:38
coming up in the world means they will have fewer, higher-quality kids,
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就意味着少生优生
07:42
and the birthrate goes down radically.
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出生率于是急剧下降
07:44
Very interesting side effect here,
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还有其他有趣的副作用在发生
07:46
here's a slide from Phillip Longman.
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这是菲利普朗曼的一个幻灯片，
07:48
Shows what is happening.
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显示正在发生的事情。
07:50
As we have more and more old people, like me,
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当我们有越来越多的老人和我一样，
07:52
and fewer and fewer babies.
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越来越少的孩子出生。
07:54
And they are regionally separated.
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它们是区域分开的。
07:57
What you're getting is a world which is
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你会看到
07:59
old folks, and old cities, going around doing things the old way,
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在北半球，都是些老人、老城市
08:04
in the north.
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在按照传统的方式来生活
08:06
And young people in brand new cities they're inventing,
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而在发展中世界的新兴城市，年轻人们在创新，
08:09
doing new things, in the south.
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做些新鲜事情。
08:11
Where do you think the action is going to be?
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你认为这些转变将在哪发生？
08:14
Shift of subject. Quickly drop by climate.
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我要转移话题了。简单谈谈气候。
08:17
The climate news, I'm sorry to say, is going to keep getting worse
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我很抱歉地说，气候的消息比我们想象的恶化得厉害，
08:19
than we think, faster than we think.
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比我们所认为的变化快。
08:22
Climate is a profoundly complex, nonlinear system,
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气候是深刻复杂的，非线性系统，
08:24
full of runaway positive feedbacks,
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尽是失控的正反馈，
08:27
hidden thresholds and irrevocable tipping points.
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隐藏的阈值和不可逆转的临界点。
08:29
Here's just a few samples.
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这有些例子。
08:32
We're going to keep being surprised. And almost all
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我们会很惊讶。几乎所有的
08:34
the surprises are going to be bad ones.
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惊讶都是坏消息。
08:36
From your standpoint this means
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从政府的立场来考虑，这意味着
08:39
a great increase in climate refugees
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在未来几十年
08:41
over the coming decades,
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气候移民将大幅增加
08:43
and what goes along with that, which is resource wars
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随之而来的是资源的战争
08:46
and chaos wars,
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和因为缺水而引发的战争
08:48
as we're seeing in Darfur.
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就如我们在达尔富尔所看到的。
08:55
That's what drought does.
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这就是干旱造成的战争。
08:57
It brings carrying capacity down,
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承载能力随之下降。
08:59
and there's not enough carrying capacity
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没有足够的承载能力
09:01
to support the people. And then you're in trouble.
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支持该国人民。然后人们就有麻烦了。
09:04
Shift to the power situation.
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好，我们再谈谈能源问题。
09:07
Baseload electricity is what it takes to run a city,
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基荷电力是使得一个城市
09:10
or a city planet.
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或一个城市星球运转。
09:12
So far there is only three sources of baseload electricity:
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到目前为止，只有三种基荷电力资源，
09:16
coal, some gas,
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煤炭来源，一些石油，
09:19
nuclear and hydro.
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核能和水力发电。
09:21
Of those, only nuclear and hydro are green.
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其中，仅核能和水力发电是绿色环保的。
09:25
Coal is what is causing the climate problems.
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煤炭是造成气候问题的原因。
09:27
And everyone will keep burning it
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因为它是如此便宜，除非政府提高燃煤发电的价格
09:29
because it's so cheap, until governments make it expensive.
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否则每个人都会继续使用煤炭燃烧生电。
09:32
Wind and solar can't help, because so far we don't have a way to store that energy.
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风能和太阳能帮助不大，因为到目前为止，我们没有办法存储这些能量。
09:37
So with hydro maxed out,
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于是水力发电不能成为主要考虑的途径
09:40
coal and lose the climate,
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用煤电就会破坏气候，
09:43
or nuclear, which is the current operating low-carbon source,
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或者核能，这是当前可操作的低碳源，
09:46
and maybe save the climate.
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或许可以拯救气候。
09:48
And if we can eventually get good solar in space,
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如果我们最终可以很好的应用太阳能，
09:51
that also could help.
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这也可以帮助。
09:53
Because remember, this is what drives the prosperity in the developing world
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请记住，这可以推动发展中世界的乡村和城市
09:58
in the villages and in the cities.
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走向繁荣
10:01
So, between coal and nuclear,
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那么，就煤炭和核能之间，
10:03
compare their waste products.
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比较它们的废弃物。
10:05
If all of the electricity you used in your lifetime was nuclear,
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如果你一直都使用核能发电，
10:09
the amount of waste that would be added up
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废弃物的数量加起来
10:11
would fit in a Coke can.
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将等同于一罐可乐。
10:14
Whereas a coal-burning plant,
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而一个燃煤电厂，
10:16
a normal one gigawatt coal plant, burns 80 rail cars of coal a day,
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一个普通的，1千兆瓦的燃煤发电厂，每天燃烧80节煤炭轨道车。
10:20
each car having 100 tons.
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每节车厢有100吨。
10:23
And it puts 18 thousand tons
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它向空气中排放1.8万吨
10:25
of carbon dioxide in the air.
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二氧化碳。
10:29
So and then when you compare the lifetime emissions
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因此，当你就这些不同能源形式一生的排放量
10:31
of these various energy forms,
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比较一下
10:33
nuclear is about even with solar and wind,
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核电和太阳能和风能大致一样，
10:35
and ahead of solar --
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核能还领先于太阳能。
10:37
oh, I'm sorry -- with hydro and wind, and ahead of solar.
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噢，对不起。还有水电能和风能，领先于太阳能。
10:40
And does nuclear really compete with coal?
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核电能可以和煤电能竞争吗？
10:42
Just ask the coal miners in Australia.
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仅问问澳大利亚的煤矿工人就知道了。
10:44
That's where you see some of the source,
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这就是你们所看到的资源信息，
10:46
not from my fellow environmentalists,
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而不是从我的环保同事，
10:48
but from people who feel threatened by nuclear power.
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而是从那些感受到核电威胁的矿工那得知。
10:51
Well the good news is that
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那么好消息是，
10:53
the developing world, but frankly, the whole world,
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发展中世界，坦率地说，整个世界，
10:55
is busy building, and starting to build, nuclear reactors.
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是忙于建设，并开始建造核反应堆。
10:59
This is good for the atmosphere.
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这利于大气，
11:01
It's good for their prosperity.
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也利于繁荣。
11:03
I want to point out one interesting thing,
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我想指出一个有趣的事情，
11:05
which is that environmentalists like the thing we call micropower.
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那就是环保人士喜欢称之为微型反应堆的东西。
11:08
It's supposed to be, I don't know, local solar and wind and cogeneration,
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我不太确定，据说是当地太阳能和风能和热电联供发电
11:11
and good things like that.
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之类的东西。
11:13
But frankly micro-reactors which are just now coming on,
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但坦率地说现在刚开始有的微型反应堆
11:15
might serve even better.
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可能被更好地应用。
11:17
The Russians, who started this, are building floating reactors,
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在俄国北部，那里的冰融化，有了新通道
11:19
for their new passage, where the ice is melting, north of Russia.
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俄罗斯人开始在那建设浮动核反应堆
11:23
And they're selling these floating reactors,
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他们向发展中国家卖这些
11:26
only 35 megawatts, to developing countries.
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只有35兆瓦浮动核反应堆
11:30
Here's the design of an early one from Toshiba.
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下面是东芝早期的设计。
11:32
It's interesting, say, to take a 25-megawatt,
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这个很有趣，比如，它采取了25兆瓦，
11:35
25 million watts,
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2千5百万瓦特，
11:37
and you compare it to the standard big iron
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拿它和一般威斯汀豪斯或Ariva派的标准大铁块反应堆
11:39
of an ordinary Westinghouse or Ariva,
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比较一下
11:43
which is 1.2, 1.6 billion watts.
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它们通常是12亿到16亿瓦特
11:46
These things are way smaller. They're much more adaptable.
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这些就小得多，并且非常容易安装
11:50
Here's an American design from Lawrence Livermore Lab.
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这是美国劳伦斯利弗莫尔实验室的设计。
11:53
Here's another American design that came out
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这还有美国洛斯阿拉莫斯国家实验室开始研制另一款设计，
11:55
of Los Alamos, and is now commercial.
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现在它已经商业化。
11:58
Almost all of these are not only small, they are proliferation-proof.
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几乎所有这些不仅仅是小，并且可以避免核扩散的发生
12:00
They're typically buried in the ground.
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他们通常被埋在地下。
12:03
And the innovation is moving very rapidly.
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创新发展非常迅速。
12:05
So I think microreactors is going to be important for the future.
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所以我认为在未来微反应堆变得重要。
12:08
In terms of proliferation,
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在核扩散方面，
12:10
nuclear energy has done more
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核能发电事实上有助于核武器的消解
12:12
to dismantle nuclear weapons than any other activity.
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其他办法都比不上这个
12:15
And that's why 10 percent of the electricity in this room,
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这就是在这个会议室有百分之十
12:19
20 percent of electricity
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甚至百分之二十的电力
12:21
in this room is probably nuclear.
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可能是核电。
12:23
Half of that is coming from dismantled warheads from Russia,
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其中一半是来自俄罗斯拆除的核弹头。
12:27
soon to be joined by our dismantled warheads.
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不久也会有我们拆除的核弹头。
12:30
And so I would like to see the GNEP program,
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我想看到布什政府积极推进的
12:33
that was developed in the Bush administration, go forward aggressively.
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全球核能源合作计划能够继续推进
12:36
And I was glad to see that president Obama
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我也很高兴看到奥巴马总统前几周
12:38
supported the nuclear fuel bank strategy
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在布拉格讲到
12:41
when he spoke in Prague the other week.
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他支持核燃料银行的战略
12:43
One more subject. Genetically engineered food crops,
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再说另一个话题，就是转基因食品
12:46
in my view, as a biologist,
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作为一个生物学家，以我的观点，
12:48
have no reason to be controversial.
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转基因食品作物不会引起争议。
12:50
My fellow environmentalists, on this subject,
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我的环保同行在这个问题上，
12:52
have been irrational, anti-scientific, and very harmful.
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变得非理性，反科学的，那是十分有害的
12:56
Despite their best efforts,
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尽管他们尽了最大努力，
12:58
genetically engineered crops are the most
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转基因农作物是历史上
13:00
rapidly successful agricultural innovation in history.
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最迅速发展成功的农业创新。
13:04
They're good for the environment because they enable no-till farming,
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他们有利于环境的保护，因为它们免去了翻土的耕作
13:07
which leaves the soil in place,
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使得土壤年复一年
13:09
getting healthier from year to year --
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变得更加肥沃。
13:11
slso keeps less carbon dioxide going from the soil
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也不断减少二氧化碳从土壤中排放
13:13
into the atmosphere.
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到大气。
13:15
They reduce pesticide use.
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它们减少了农药的使用，
13:17
And they increase yield, which allows you to have your
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还增加产量
13:19
agricultural area be smaller,
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在面积比较小的土地上就收获很多的粮食。
13:22
and therefore more wild area is freed up.
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以致于让更多野外土地回归自然。
13:25
By the way, this map from 2006
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顺便说一下，2006年这张地图
13:27
is out of date because it shows Africa
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已经过时。但它显示
13:29
still under the thumb of Greenpeace,
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受绿色和平组织
13:31
and Friends of the Earth from Europe,
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和欧洲地球之友控制下的非洲。
13:34
and they're finally getting out from under that.
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他们最终摆脱那些控制。
13:36
And biotech is moving rapidly in Africa, at last.
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最后，生物技术正快速在非洲发展。
13:39
This is a moral issue.
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这是一个道德问题。
13:41
The Nuffield Council on Bioethics
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纳菲尔德生物伦理会议
13:43
met on this issue twice in great detail
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就这个问题详细讨论，并召开两次会议，
13:45
and said it is a moral imperative
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并表示这是一个道德责任，
13:47
to make genetically engineered crops readily available.
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并使转基因作物随时可应用。
13:50
Speaking of imperatives, geoengineering is taboo now,
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要讲到紧要事情，人工气候改造是一个禁忌话题
13:53
especially in government circles,
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特别是在政府内部
13:55
though I think there was a DARPA meeting on it a couple of weeks ago,
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但我知道就在几个星期前，美国国防高级研究规划局还为此开了一个会
13:57
but it will be on your plate --
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但地球工程是事关你的事情，
13:59
not this year but pretty soon,
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不是今年，但很快就会发生。
14:02
because some harsh realizations are coming along.
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因为一些严峻的事实随之显现出来。
14:05
This is a list of them.
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这是其中的一个清单。
14:07
Basically the news is going to keep getting more scary.
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事实上所知的会越来越可怕。
14:10
There will be events,
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将有一系列事件，
14:12
like 35,000 people dying of a heat wave,
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如前阵子发生
14:15
which happened a while back.
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35000人死于热浪
14:17
Like cyclones coming up toward Bangladesh.
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又如袭击孟加拉国的龙卷风。
14:20
Like wars over water,
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还有因为争夺水源而引发的战争
14:22
such as in the Indus.
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例如印度河水患。
14:24
And as those events keep happening
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由于这些事件不断发生，
14:26
we're going to say, "Okay, what can we do about that really?"
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我们可能会说，“好吧，我们到底能做些什么呢？”
14:28
But there's this little problem with geoengineering:
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但这是地球工程的小问题。
14:33
what body is going to decide
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哪一个机构来做出决定
14:37
who gets to engineer? How much they do? Where they do it?
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工程师是谁？他们做什么？他们在哪做？
14:39
Because everybody is downstream,
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因为不管这一气候改造工程结果如何
14:41
downwind of whatever is done.
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我们每个人到都将深受其影响
14:44
And if we just taboo it completely
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如果我们要完全将此作为禁忌话题的话
14:46
we could lose civilization.
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人类文明也有可能走向灭亡
14:48
But if we just say "OK,
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但假如我们说，“好吧
14:51
China, you're worried, you go ahead.
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中国，你要是担心的话，你先行动。
14:53
You geoengineer your way. We'll geoengineer our way."
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你们的地球工程有你们的方式。我们有我们自己的。
14:57
That would be considered an act of war by both nations.
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这就好比两国间的战争行为。
15:00
So this is very interesting diplomacy coming along.
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接下来是非常有趣的外交对话。
15:04
I should say, it is more practical than people think.
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但实际上要实现这样的工程比人们想象的要容易得多
15:07
Here is an example that climatologists like a lot,
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气候学家很关注下面的例子。
15:10
one of the dozens of geoengineering ideas.
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许多地球工程点子中的一个，
15:12
This one came from the sulfur dioxide
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1991年，皮纳图博火山喷发，
15:14
from Mount Pinatubo in 1991 --
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所喷出的二氧化硫
15:17
cooled the earth by half a degree.
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使得地球的温度降低了摄氏半度。
15:21
There was so much ice in 1992, the following year,
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第二年1992年，很多的冰
15:23
that there was a bumper crop of polar bear cubs
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才使北极熊幼仔丰产，
15:26
who were known as the Pinatubo cubs.
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它们取名皮纳图博北极熊宝宝。
15:28
To put sulfur dioxide in the stratosphere
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向平流层中排放二氧化硫
15:30
would cost on the order of a billion dollars a year.
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每年将花费10亿美元成本
15:33
That's nothing, compared to all of the other
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相对于我们有关能源可能要做的所有事情，
15:36
things we may be trying to do about energy.
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这真不算什么。
15:38
Just to run by another one:
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另一个应用的例子
15:41
this is a plan to brighten the reflectance of ocean clouds,
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计划是靠雾化海水
15:44
by atomizing seawater;
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使海洋云层反射更加活跃
15:46
that would brighten the albedo of the whole planet.
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这将影响整个地球的反照率。
15:48
A nice one, because it can happen
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因为它可以
15:50
lots of little ways in lots of little places,
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在许多很小的地方以很多不同方式发生
15:52
is by copying the ancient Amazon Indians
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一个好例子是仿照古代亚马逊印第安人
15:54
who made good agricultural soil
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通过热分解，不完全燃烧，植物废料
15:56
by pyrolizing, smoldering, plant waste,
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使农业土壤更肥沃
16:00
and biochar fixes large quantities of carbon
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生物炭替代大量的碳
16:03
while it's improving the soil.
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从而改善土壤。
16:05
So here is where we are.
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这是我们的准则。
16:08
Nobel Prize-winning climatologist Paul Crutzen
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诺贝尔奖得主气候学家保罗·克鲁岑
16:11
calls our geological era the Anthropocene,
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把我们现今这个地质时代称为人类世
16:14
the human-dominated era. We are stuck
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也就是说现在人类活动正在改变着地球的面貌
16:17
with its obligations.
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并且我们还将不得不继续完成这样的任务
16:20
In the Whole Earth Catalog, my first words were,
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在《地球目录》的第一句话是
16:22
"We are as Gods, and might as well get good at it."
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“我们就像上帝一样，也许我们可以做好这个角色。”
16:24
The first words of Whole Earth Discipline
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而《地球的法则》的第一句话是：
16:27
are, "We are as Gods, and have to get good at it."
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“我们就是上帝，我们必须做好这个角色。”
16:31
Thank you.
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谢谢。
16:33
(Applause)
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（鼓掌）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Stewart Brand - Environmentalist, futuristSince the counterculture '60s, Stewart Brand has been creating our internet-worked world. Now, with biotech accelerating four times faster than digital technology, Stewart Brand has a bold new plan ...
Why you should listen
With biotech accelerating four times faster than digital technology, the revival of extinct species is becoming possible. Stewart Brand plans to not only bring species back but restore them to the wild.
Brand is already a legend in the tech industry for things he’s created: the Whole Earth Catalog, The WELL, the Global Business Network, the Long Now Foundation, and the notion that “information wants to be free.” Now Brand, a lifelong environmentalist, wants to re-create -- or “de-extinct” -- a few animals that’ve disappeared from the planet.
Granted, resurrecting the woolly mammoth using ancient DNA may sound like mad science. But Brand’s Revive and Restore project has an entirely rational goal: to learn what causes extinctions so we can protect currently endangered species, preserve genetic and biological diversity, repair depleted ecosystems, and essentially “undo harm that humans have caused in the past.”
Stewart Brand | Speaker | TED.com