TED@State
Stewart Brand: 4 environmental 'heresies'
Stewart Brand 聲明四種環境「異端」
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Stewart Brand 曾經在1960 至 1970 年間，引領美國一個世代的環保運動。現在他重新思索自身在城市、核能、基因改造、與地球工程等議题上的位置。這場在美國國務院的演講，可以說，是他近期出版新書的先聲，預料將引起一場廣泛的爭論。
Stewart Brand - Environmentalist, futurist
Since the counterculture '60s, Stewart Brand has been creating our internet-worked world. Now, with biotech accelerating four times faster than digital technology, Stewart Brand has a bold new plan ... Full bio
Since the counterculture '60s, Stewart Brand has been creating our internet-worked world. Now, with biotech accelerating four times faster than digital technology, Stewart Brand has a bold new plan ... Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
Because of what I'm about to say,
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由於我接下來所要說的，
00:18
I really should establish my green credentials.
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我實在應該建立一點我的綠色憑證。
00:21
When I was a small boy, I took my pledge
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當我還是一個小男孩時，我曾向自己立下誓言
00:23
as an American, to save and faithfully defend from waste
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作為一個美國人，我要保存我的國家
00:26
the natural resources of my country,
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要忠實捍衛我國自然資源，免於浪費
00:28
its air, soil and minerals, its forests, waters and wildlife.
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要保存這片土地上的空氣，土壤，礦物，森林，水，和野生動物
00:31
And I've stuck to that.
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而我也堅守這個承諾
00:33
Stanford, I majored in ecology and evolution.
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在史丹福大學，我主修生態學和演化論
00:37
1968, I put out the Whole Earth Catalog. Was "mister natural" for a while.
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1968年我創辦雜誌《Whole Earth Catalog》。有人叫我了一陣子"自然先生"
00:41
And then worked for the Jerry Brown administration.
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接着我替Jerry Brown政府做事
00:44
The Brown administration, and a bunch of my friends,
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Jerry Brown的團隊和我一群朋友
00:47
basically leveled the energy efficiency of California,
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成功地提升整個加州的能源效率
00:50
so it's the same now, 30 years later,
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同現在三十年後的水準一樣，
00:53
even though our economy has gone up 80 percent, per capita.
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儘管我們的經濟在人均發展上已成長了百分之八十
00:57
And we are putting out less greenhouse gasses than any other state.
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我們的溫室氣體排放比任何其他州都還要低
01:00
California is basically the equivalent of Europe, in this.
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加州在現在的排放水平基本上與歐洲相等
01:03
This year, Whole Earth Catalog has a supplement that I'll preview today,
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我預告一下今年《Whole Earth Catalog》要出的特刊
01:08
called Whole Earth Discipline.
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標題叫"全球紀律"
01:11
The dominant demographic event of our time
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我們這時代最重要的人口事件
01:13
is this screamingly rapid urbanization
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就是持續驚人的
01:16
that we have going on.
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都市化速度
01:18
By mid-century we'll be about 80 percent urban,
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到本世紀中葉我們將有百分之八十的人口聚居在城市
01:22
and that's mostly in the developing world,
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而且大多數都會發生在
01:25
where that's happening.
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開發中國家。
01:27
It's interesting, because history is driven to a large degree
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這很有趣。因為歷史在很大程度上都是由
01:30
by the size of cities.
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城市的規模所推動的。
01:32
The developing world now has all of the biggest cities,
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現在，發展中國家擁有所有這些最大的城市
01:35
and they are developing three times faster than the developed countries,
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它們正以已開發國家三倍的速度成長中
01:38
and nine times bigger.
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而且相當於九倍大的規模
01:40
It's qualitatively different.
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這在質的方面是不同的
01:43
They are the drivers of history, as we see by looking at history.
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它們是歷史的推動者，正如我們所看到的人類歷史
01:45
1,000 years ago this is what the world looked like.
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1000多年前，世界看起來是這個樣子的
01:49
Well we now have a distribution of urban power
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現在我們有城市供電網
01:52
similar to what we had 1,000 years ago.
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我們1000多年前是差不多的
01:55
In other words, the rise of the West,
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換句話說，西方的興起，
01:57
dramatic as it was, is over.
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過去戲劇性的一切，已經結束了
02:01
The aggregate numbers are absolutely overwhelming:
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壓倒性的總人口數是絕對無法抵擋的
02:04
1.3 million people a week coming to town,
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每週130萬人來到城裡
02:07
decade after decade.
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年復一年
02:09
What's really going on?
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這是怎麼一回事？
02:11
Well, what's going on is the villages of the world are emptying out.
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實際上，全世界的村落都已經空無一人
02:14
Subsistence farming is drying up basically.
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自給自足的農業基本上全枯竭了
02:17
People are following opportunity into town.
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人們進城找機會
02:19
And this is why.
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這就是原因。
02:21
I used to have a very romantic idea about villages,
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我以前對農村一直懷有非常浪漫的想像，
02:23
and it's because I never lived in one.
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因為我從來沒住過那。
02:26
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
02:27
Because in town --
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由於在城裡--
02:29
this is the bustling squatter city
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這是位於基貝拉的一個熱鬧的貧民區大城
02:31
of Kibera, near Nairobi --
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靠近肯亞的首都奈洛比--
02:35
they see action. They see opportunity.
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他們看到許許多多的機會
02:37
They see a cash economy that they were not able to participate in
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他們看到在過去的農場生活中
02:40
back in the subsistence farm.
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無法參與的金錢活動。
02:43
As you go around these places there's plenty of aesthetics.
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當你走過這些地方時，你會發現許多美麗的事
02:45
There is plenty going on.
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一堆事情正在發生
02:47
They are poor, but they are intensely urban. And they are intensely creative.
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他們貧窮，但他們高度地城市化。他們有豐富的創造性。
02:51
The aggregate numbers now
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現在的總人數
02:53
are that basically squatters,
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基本上都住在棚戶區，
02:56
all one billion of them, are building the urban world,
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這些所有十億人，正在建立一個都市化的世界
02:59
which means they're building the world --
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這意謂著他們正在建造這個世界。
03:02
personally, one by one, family by family,
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一人接一人，一家接一家
03:04
clan by clan, neighborhood by neighborhood.
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一族接一族，鄰里接社區
03:07
They start flimsy and they get substantial as time goes by.
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一開始，他們的生活不穩妥，但隨著時間的推移，他們愈來愈堅實
03:11
They even build their own infrastructure.
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他們甚至建立屬於自己的基礎設施
03:13
Well, steal their own infrastructure, at first.
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嗯，或者說，先偷來自己的基礎設施
03:16
Cable TV, water, the whole gamut, all gets stolen.
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有線電視、水，全偷走
03:19
And then gradually gentrifies.
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然後他們逐漸改善
03:23
It is not the case that slums undermine prosperity,
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有人說貧民窟破壞發展，但情況並非如此
03:26
not the working slums; they help create prosperity.
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事實上，貧民窟幫助創造繁榮
03:30
So in a town like Mumbai, which is half slums,
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所以像孟買這樣一個城市，幾乎一半都是貧民窟，
03:33
it's 1/6th of the GDP of India.
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它卻佔印度 1/6 的國內生產總值
03:36
Social capital in the slums is at its most urban and dense.
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貧民窟裡的社會資本，以其最高度都市化與密集的方式發展
03:41
These people are valuable as a group.
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他們是寶貴的一群人
03:44
And that's how they work.
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而這是他們工作的方式
03:46
There is a lot of people who think about all these poor people,
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許多人想到這些窮人，第一個念頭就是
03:49
"Oh there's terrible things. We've got to fix their housing."
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「噢這真是可怕的事，我們必須解決他們的住房問題」
03:51
It used to be, "Oh we've got to get them phone service."
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還有：「噢，我們得趕緊讓他們取得電話服務」
03:53
Now they're showing us how they do their phone service.
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現在，他們向我們表明了如何取得自己的電話服務了
03:56
Famine mostly is a rural event now.
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今天飢荒多半僅發生在農村
03:58
There are things they care about.
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事實上，他們憂慮一些事物
04:00
And this is where we can help.
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而這些事是我們可以幫助的地方
04:03
And the nations they're in can help.
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國家可以對他們提供幫助
04:05
And they are helping each other solve these issues.
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他們也互相幫助，解決這些問題
04:08
And you go to a nice dense place like this slum in Mumbai.
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如果你到一個稍微密集的地方，像這個在孟買的貧民窟
04:12
You look at that lane on the right.
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你看圖中右側的這條道路
04:14
And you can ask, "Okay what's going on there?"
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你會想問：「這到底是怎麼一回事？」
04:16
The answer is, "Everything."
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答案是：「所有一切」
04:19
This is better than a mall. It's much denser.
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這比商場還棒。它的密度大多了
04:22
It's much more interactive.
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人與人更為互動
04:24
And the scale is terrific.
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而且規模驚人
04:26
The main event is, these are not people crushed by poverty.
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主要活動是，這些都不是被貧困壓垮的人
04:30
These are people busy getting out of poverty
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而是一群忙著擺脫貧困的人
04:32
just as fast as they can.
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他們盡其所能地迅速
04:34
They're helping each other do it.
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他們互相幫助
04:36
They're doing it through an outlaw thing,
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他們透過違法的方式完成
04:38
the informal economy.
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非正規經濟
04:40
The informal economy, it's sort of like dark energy in astrophysics:
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這非正式的經濟就像天體物理學中的暗能量
04:44
it's not supposed to be there, but it's huge.
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不應該在那，但它是巨大的
04:46
We don't understand how it works yet, but we have to.
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我們不明白它是如何運作的，但我們必須明白
04:49
Furthermore, people in the informal economy,
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此外，在非正規經濟中
04:51
the gray economy --
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灰色經濟
04:53
as time goes by,
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隨著時間的推移
04:55
crime is happening around them. And they can join the criminal world,
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犯罪愈來愈頻仍，他們也可以加入犯罪的世界
04:59
or they can join the legitimate world.
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或者他們可以參與合法的世界
05:03
We should be able to make that choice
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我們應該能夠作出這樣的選擇
05:05
easier for them to get toward the legitimate world,
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使他們較容易走向合法的世界
05:07
because if we don't, they will go toward the criminal world.
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因為如果我們不這樣做，他們會走向犯罪的世界
05:11
There's all kinds of activity.
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那裡有各樣的活動
05:14
In Dharavi the slum performs not only
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在Dharavi 貧民窟不僅
05:16
a lot of services for itself,
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提供許多服務
05:18
but it performs services for the city at large.
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它也為城市提供一般服務
05:21
And one of the main events are these ad-hoc schools.
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而其中一個主要事件是這些特殊學校
05:24
Parents pool their money to hire some local teachers
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家長花錢聘請一些地方教師
05:28
to a private, tiny, unofficial school.
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給一個私人，小的，非官方的學校
05:30
Education is more possible in the cities, and that changes the world.
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在城市中教育是更有機會。並且改變了世界
05:35
So you see some interesting, typical, urban things.
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所以你看到一些有趣的，典型的，城市的東西
05:38
So one thing slammed up against another,
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因此，有一些事衝撞了另一件事
05:40
such as in Sao Paulo here.
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就像在聖保羅這裡
05:42
That's what cities do. That's how they create value,
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這就是城市所做的事。這就是他們把所有事物擠壓在一起
05:44
is by slamming things together.
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創造的價值的方式
05:46
In this case, supply right next to demand.
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在這的例子中，供給接續著需求
05:48
So the maids and the gardeners and the guards
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因此女傭、園丁和警衛
05:50
that live in this lively part of town on the left
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生活在這熱鬧城市的左邊部分
05:53
walk to work, in the boring, rich neighborhood.
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走路去富裕卻沉悶的鄰近社區上班
05:58
Proximity is amazing.
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它們距離這麼接近是很驚人的
06:01
We are learning about how dense proximity can be.
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我們正在學習如此緊密相鄰是如何可能的
06:16
Connectivity between the city and the country
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連接城市和國家
06:19
is what's going to keep the country good,
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使國家保持良好
06:22
because the city has interesting ways of doing things.
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由於城市以有趣的方式做事情
06:34
This is what makes cities --
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這是構成城市的要素--
06:36
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
06:40
this is what makes cities so green in the developing world.
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這是使發展中國家的城市變得如此绿化的因素
06:43
Because people leave the poverty trap, an ecological disaster
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由於人們脫離貧窮陷阱, 生態的變化
06:46
of subsistence farms, and head to town.
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衝擊自耕農 轉進城市發展
06:49
And when they're gone the natural environment
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當農耕離開 自然環境
06:51
starts to come back very rapidly.
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會開始很快的恢復
06:53
And those who remain in the village can shift over to cash crops
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而留在村莊的就可選種較有經濟價值的作物
06:56
to send food to the new growing markets in town.
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賣食物到新城市內的壯大市場
07:00
So if you want to save a village, you do it with a good road,
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要救一個村莊 就是建條好的聯絡道路
07:03
or with a good cell phone connection, and ideally some grid electrical power.
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或是好的無線電話網路 更好的是一些電力供應網路
07:07
So the event is: we're a city planet. That just happened.
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看到的是 我們就是城市的行星
07:10
More than half.
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超過一半
07:12
The numbers are considerable. A billion live in the squatter cities now.
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這數字是可觀的 10億人正生活在擁擠的城市
07:15
Another billion is expected.
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另外 10 億人也預計會
07:18
That's more than a sixth of humanity living a certain way.
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那是超過1/6的人類 生活著同一種方式
07:21
And that will determine a lot of how we function.
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那就會決定我們如何運作
07:25
Now, for us environmentalists,
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對我們這些環境保護工作者
07:27
maybe the greenest thing about the cities is they diffuse the population bomb.
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或許城市最綠色的發展 是能緩和人口之增加
07:30
People get into town.
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人們來到城裡
07:33
The immediately have fewer children.
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立即會減少生育
07:35
They don't even have to get rich yet. Just the opportunity of
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他們不需要先變得富有 機會自然發生
07:38
coming up in the world means they will have fewer, higher-quality kids,
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他們可以有較少又較佳的孩子
07:42
and the birthrate goes down radically.
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生育率迅速下降
07:44
Very interesting side effect here,
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非常有趣的副作用發生
07:46
here's a slide from Phillip Longman.
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這張照片是來自 Phillip Longman
07:48
Shows what is happening.
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顯示發生什麼事
07:50
As we have more and more old people, like me,
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我們有愈來愈多的老人佔比
07:52
and fewer and fewer babies.
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與愈來愈少的嬰兒
07:54
And they are regionally separated.
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他們還是有區域性的分割
07:57
What you're getting is a world which is
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得到的是
07:59
old folks, and old cities, going around doing things the old way,
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老人 老城市 從事著舊有活動
08:04
in the north.
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近北邊
08:06
And young people in brand new cities they're inventing,
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年輕的 都擠進他們創造的年輕城市
08:09
doing new things, in the south.
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在南邊 從事新活動
08:11
Where do you think the action is going to be?
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你們知道是哪些新活動呢?
08:14
Shift of subject. Quickly drop by climate.
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暫偏主題 看一下氣候問題
08:17
The climate news, I'm sorry to say, is going to keep getting worse
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關於氣候 我很抱歉的說 只會比我們以為的
08:19
than we think, faster than we think.
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更加惡化的 更加劇烈急速
08:22
Climate is a profoundly complex, nonlinear system,
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氣候是非常複雜的 非線性變化的
08:24
full of runaway positive feedbacks,
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到處都是亂竄的正向反饋
08:27
hidden thresholds and irrevocable tipping points.
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隱藏的門檻 與 不可逆的反轉點
08:29
Here's just a few samples.
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這裡就只是幾個例子
08:32
We're going to keep being surprised. And almost all
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我們會持續感到意外的
08:34
the surprises are going to be bad ones.
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最出乎意料的都是些壞事
08:36
From your standpoint this means
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從你的觀點
08:39
a great increase in climate refugees
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會有更多的氣候變遷難民
08:41
over the coming decades,
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就在未來的數十年
08:43
and what goes along with that, which is resource wars
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伴隨著 就是搶資源的戰爭
08:46
and chaos wars,
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與 混沌不明的戰爭
08:48
as we're seeing in Darfur.
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就像發生在 Darfur
08:55
That's what drought does.
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只因為乾旱造成
08:57
It brings carrying capacity down,
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拖垮公權力
08:59
and there's not enough carrying capacity
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沒有足夠的公權力
09:01
to support the people. And then you're in trouble.
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來幫助人民 只有混亂了
09:04
Shift to the power situation.
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來說說電力的問題
09:07
Baseload electricity is what it takes to run a city,
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基載電力就是用來讓城市運作的
09:10
or a city planet.
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或說我們整個星球
09:12
So far there is only three sources of baseload electricity:
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目前僅有三種來源是基載電力
09:16
coal, some gas,
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煤 與一些天然氣 構成的 火力發電
09:19
nuclear and hydro.
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核能發電 水力發電
09:21
Of those, only nuclear and hydro are green.
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之中 僅有核能與水力是綠色的
09:25
Coal is what is causing the climate problems.
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燃煤就是造成氣候的問題
09:27
And everyone will keep burning it
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每個人將還是繼續燒煤
09:29
because it's so cheap, until governments make it expensive.
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因為它是如此便宜 直到政府能讓它變貴
09:32
Wind and solar can't help, because so far we don't have a way to store that energy.
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風力與太陽能難有助益 因我們還沒有個好方式儲存能量
09:37
So with hydro maxed out,
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由於水力已到開發上限
09:40
coal and lose the climate,
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燃煤會惡化氣候
09:43
or nuclear, which is the current operating low-carbon source,
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核能產出極低的碳排放
09:46
and maybe save the climate.
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就或許能挽救氣候異常
09:48
And if we can eventually get good solar in space,
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若我們真的能有太空中的太陽光電發電
09:51
that also could help.
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那就真是大幫手了
09:53
Because remember, this is what drives the prosperity in the developing world
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因為 這些才是能為開發中國家創造繁榮的
09:58
in the villages and in the cities.
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不管是鄉村或城市
10:01
So, between coal and nuclear,
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所以比較燃煤與核能
10:03
compare their waste products.
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看他們的廢棄產生
10:05
If all of the electricity you used in your lifetime was nuclear,
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這輩子一個人能用掉的電力 若是來自核能
10:09
the amount of waste that would be added up
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那核能廢棄物加總起來
10:11
would fit in a Coke can.
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只有可樂罐子的大小
10:14
Whereas a coal-burning plant,
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若是來自燃煤
10:16
a normal one gigawatt coal plant, burns 80 rail cars of coal a day,
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一個10億瓦等級的電廠 是要每天燒去80節火車廂的煤
10:20
each car having 100 tons.
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每節車有100公噸的煤
10:23
And it puts 18 thousand tons
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這個廠每天排放1萬8千噸的
10:25
of carbon dioxide in the air.
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二氧化碳到大氣層
10:29
So and then when you compare the lifetime emissions
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所以比較這一輩子用電
10:31
of these various energy forms,
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各種形式的排放量
10:33
nuclear is about even with solar and wind,
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核能約與太陽光電與風力相當
10:35
and ahead of solar --
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勝過太陽光電
10:37
oh, I'm sorry -- with hydro and wind, and ahead of solar.
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喔! 抱歉是約與水力與風力相當 勝過太陽光電
10:40
And does nuclear really compete with coal?
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是不是核能真的能贏過燃煤
10:42
Just ask the coal miners in Australia.
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問問那些澳大利亞的煤礦曠工
10:44
That's where you see some of the source,
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會得到些消息來源
10:46
not from my fellow environmentalists,
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不是從我的環保團體
10:48
but from people who feel threatened by nuclear power.
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而是來自因核能而備受威脅的人
10:51
Well the good news is that
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好消息是這個
10:53
the developing world, but frankly, the whole world,
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開發中國家 坦白說是 所有國家
10:55
is busy building, and starting to build, nuclear reactors.
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都急忙於建構核能發電廠
10:59
This is good for the atmosphere.
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對大氣層是好的
11:01
It's good for their prosperity.
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對他們的繁榮是好的
11:03
I want to point out one interesting thing,
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我需要指出一件有趣的事
11:05
which is that environmentalists like the thing we call micropower.
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環保團體喜歡所謂的 微電力系統
11:08
It's supposed to be, I don't know, local solar and wind and cogeneration,
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就是 座落於當地的 太陽 風力 或 汽電共生
11:11
and good things like that.
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等等的 發電系統
11:13
But frankly micro-reactors which are just now coming on,
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實際上 微型反應爐 就快問世
11:15
might serve even better.
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能提供更佳的方案
11:17
The Russians, who started this, are building floating reactors,
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俄國人士最早發展這個的 正再建造一漂移的反應爐
11:19
for their new passage, where the ice is melting, north of Russia.
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在俄國北邊的水路通道 持續耗電溶解冰
11:23
And they're selling these floating reactors,
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他們也出售 這種浮動反應爐
11:26
only 35 megawatts, to developing countries.
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約3千5百萬瓦 給開發中國家
11:30
Here's the design of an early one from Toshiba.
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這是Toshiba早期的設計
11:32
It's interesting, say, to take a 25-megawatt,
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這是非常有意思的 用
11:35
25 million watts,
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2千5 百萬瓦發電量
11:37
and you compare it to the standard big iron
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與標準的Westinghouse 或是 Ariva的
11:39
of an ordinary Westinghouse or Ariva,
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大反應爐相比
11:43
which is 1.2, 1.6 billion watts.
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動輒12 或 16億瓦
11:46
These things are way smaller. They're much more adaptable.
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這些是更小的設計 更能應付各式情況
11:50
Here's an American design from Lawrence Livermore Lab.
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這是一個美國設計給Lawrence實驗室
11:53
Here's another American design that came out
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這裡是另一從Los Alamos設計
11:55
of Los Alamos, and is now commercial.
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也已商轉的例子
11:58
Almost all of these are not only small, they are proliferation-proof.
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幾乎這些設計不只是小 它們也確保不致於變成核武擴散
12:00
They're typically buried in the ground.
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它們通常是埋在地下
12:03
And the innovation is moving very rapidly.
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創新的速度是加速進行
12:05
So I think microreactors is going to be important for the future.
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我相信微型反應爐將是未來重要的發展
12:08
In terms of proliferation,
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至於核武威脅的議題
12:10
nuclear energy has done more
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核能實際已經是
12:12
to dismantle nuclear weapons than any other activity.
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拆解核子武器後的再利用
12:15
And that's why 10 percent of the electricity in this room,
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所以 大約10%~20%
12:19
20 percent of electricity
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這間室內使用的電力
12:21
in this room is probably nuclear.
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是來自核能
12:23
Half of that is coming from dismantled warheads from Russia,
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其中一半是來自於蘇聯核彈頭的拆解
12:27
soon to be joined by our dismantled warheads.
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也將在加入我們自己的核彈頭
12:30
And so I would like to see the GNEP program,
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所以 我希望在以前布希政府下
12:33
that was developed in the Bush administration, go forward aggressively.
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的GNEP計畫 能更積極向前
12:36
And I was glad to see that president Obama
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我也高興見到 Obama 總統
12:38
supported the nuclear fuel bank strategy
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在幾週前布拉格的演講
12:41
when he spoke in Prague the other week.
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能支持核能燃料庫的策略
12:43
One more subject. Genetically engineered food crops,
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再一個主題: 基因工程改造的糧食作物
12:46
in my view, as a biologist,
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以我一個生物學家的觀點
12:48
have no reason to be controversial.
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這是沒什麼好爭辯的
12:50
My fellow environmentalists, on this subject,
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但有些環保同僚 卻對此
12:52
have been irrational, anti-scientific, and very harmful.
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有些非理性 反科學 或是 傷害的角度看待
12:56
Despite their best efforts,
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先不管科學家的努力
12:58
genetically engineered crops are the most
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農作物基因工程可是
13:00
rapidly successful agricultural innovation in history.
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農業歷史上最具成功代表性
13:04
They're good for the environment because they enable no-till farming,
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對環境也是有益的 因為 它們促成了免耕農業
13:07
which leaves the soil in place,
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讓土壤留在原地
13:09
getting healthier from year to year --
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每年也是更加的健康
13:11
slso keeps less carbon dioxide going from the soil
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也同時減少了土壤的CO2
13:13
into the atmosphere.
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排放到大氣中
13:15
They reduce pesticide use.
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也能減少殺蟲劑的使用
13:17
And they increase yield, which allows you to have your
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也增加作物產量 也就能讓我們的
13:19
agricultural area be smaller,
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耕作面積減少
13:22
and therefore more wild area is freed up.
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也就多出了野生地區
13:25
By the way, this map from 2006
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這張2006年的地圖
13:27
is out of date because it shows Africa
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是過時的 因為它顯示非洲
13:29
still under the thumb of Greenpeace,
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還是需要綠和平 與歐洲地球之友的
13:31
and Friends of the Earth from Europe,
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廣泛協助
13:34
and they're finally getting out from under that.
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其實他們多已撤出
13:36
And biotech is moving rapidly in Africa, at last.
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生物科技在非洲終於快速展開
13:39
This is a moral issue.
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這實際是個道德問題
13:41
The Nuffield Council on Bioethics
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Nuffield 生物倫理理事會
13:43
met on this issue twice in great detail
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就已為此議題做過兩次深入討論
13:45
and said it is a moral imperative
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並決議 這是個道德必行的事
13:47
to make genetically engineered crops readily available.
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應盡速研發出基因工程作物
13:50
Speaking of imperatives, geoengineering is taboo now,
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說到勢在必行 地球工程目前卻是個禁忌話題
13:53
especially in government circles,
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尤其是在政治圈內
13:55
though I think there was a DARPA meeting on it a couple of weeks ago,
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即使幾週前 曾有個 DARPA 會議討論這個主題
13:57
but it will be on your plate --
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遲早會到大家眼前
13:59
not this year but pretty soon,
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不是今年 但也會是相當快的
14:02
because some harsh realizations are coming along.
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因為一些嚴苛情況 很快就會來臨
14:05
This is a list of them.
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這是張清單
14:07
Basically the news is going to keep getting more scary.
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基本上 消息會更嚇人的
14:10
There will be events,
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會是一些事件
14:12
like 35,000 people dying of a heat wave,
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像是 35,000人 因熱浪來襲而死
14:15
which happened a while back.
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在之前不久發生過
14:17
Like cyclones coming up toward Bangladesh.
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像是 龍捲風襲擊 孟加拉
14:20
Like wars over water,
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像是 水資源的戰爭
14:22
such as in the Indus.
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發生在印度河
14:24
And as those events keep happening
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當這些事件持續發生
14:26
we're going to say, "Okay, what can we do about that really?"
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我們會說: "好吧! 我們真的能做些什麼呢?"
14:28
But there's this little problem with geoengineering:
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但是 地球工程上還有個問題
14:33
what body is going to decide
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哪個組織來決定?
14:37
who gets to engineer? How much they do? Where they do it?
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地球需要什麼工程? 做多少? 在哪裡做?
14:39
Because everybody is downstream,
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因為每個人都會是被影響者
14:41
downwind of whatever is done.
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因為每個人都會是被影響與波及
14:44
And if we just taboo it completely
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若是我們完全不談它
14:46
we could lose civilization.
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我們或許會失去文明
14:48
But if we just say "OK,
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或若只是一味贊同
14:51
China, you're worried, you go ahead.
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中國要做 好去做
14:53
You geoengineer your way. We'll geoengineer our way."
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你做你的方式 我做我的
14:57
That would be considered an act of war by both nations.
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那將會是 近似兩國宣戰
15:00
So this is very interesting diplomacy coming along.
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所以也會見到新的外交談判
15:04
I should say, it is more practical than people think.
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我想說的是 這些比一般人以為的還要可實現
15:07
Here is an example that climatologists like a lot,
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這就是個氣候學家喜歡的
15:10
one of the dozens of geoengineering ideas.
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十幾個例子其中之一
15:12
This one came from the sulfur dioxide
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這個例子 是SO2
15:14
from Mount Pinatubo in 1991 --
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1991年 Pinatubo 火山
15:17
cooled the earth by half a degree.
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降低了地球半度
15:21
There was so much ice in 1992, the following year,
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造成接著的1992年大積雪
15:23
that there was a bumper crop of polar bear cubs
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也孕育出了大量的北極熊寶寶
15:26
who were known as the Pinatubo cubs.
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也就被稱為 Pinatubo寶寶
15:28
To put sulfur dioxide in the stratosphere
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要將 SO2 放在平流層
15:30
would cost on the order of a billion dollars a year.
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約需要每年10億美元經費
15:33
That's nothing, compared to all of the other
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這筆錢是小的 相較其他
15:36
things we may be trying to do about energy.
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規劃中的能源類相關計畫
15:38
Just to run by another one:
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再舉個例子
15:41
this is a plan to brighten the reflectance of ocean clouds,
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這是個將海洋上的雲增加反射陽光
15:44
by atomizing seawater;
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利用的是將海水分子化
15:46
that would brighten the albedo of the whole planet.
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那會增加全球的陽光遮蔽效果
15:48
A nice one, because it can happen
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另一個相當好的例子 因為這是可行的
15:50
lots of little ways in lots of little places,
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且可以多地點與多方式進行
15:52
is by copying the ancient Amazon Indians
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是向古代亞馬遜的原住民學習
15:54
who made good agricultural soil
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製造出很好的農作土壤
15:56
by pyrolizing, smoldering, plant waste,
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是利用肥料 植物廢料
16:00
and biochar fixes large quantities of carbon
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可以固化大量的碳元素
16:03
while it's improving the soil.
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也可以做土壤改質
16:05
So here is where we are.
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這就是我們所處的狀況
16:08
Nobel Prize-winning climatologist Paul Crutzen
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諾貝爾得主 氣候學家 Paul Crutzen
16:11
calls our geological era the Anthropocene,
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稱人類所在的世紀
16:14
the human-dominated era. We are stuck
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是由人類所主宰 但我們卻也背負了
16:17
with its obligations.
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義務
16:20
In the Whole Earth Catalog, my first words were,
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在之前 Whole Earth Catalog (全球型錄) 我的前幾句是
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"We are as Gods, and might as well get good at it."
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"我們喜歡扮神, 那不妨學會作好"
16:24
The first words of Whole Earth Discipline
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Wole Earth Discipline (全球紀律) 的前幾句是
16:27
are, "We are as Gods, and have to get good at it."
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"我們若是神 那就得做好祂"
16:31
Thank you.
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謝謝
16:33
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Stewart Brand - Environmentalist, futuristSince the counterculture '60s, Stewart Brand has been creating our internet-worked world. Now, with biotech accelerating four times faster than digital technology, Stewart Brand has a bold new plan ...
Why you should listen
With biotech accelerating four times faster than digital technology, the revival of extinct species is becoming possible. Stewart Brand plans to not only bring species back but restore them to the wild.
Brand is already a legend in the tech industry for things he’s created: the Whole Earth Catalog, The WELL, the Global Business Network, the Long Now Foundation, and the notion that “information wants to be free.” Now Brand, a lifelong environmentalist, wants to re-create -- or “de-extinct” -- a few animals that’ve disappeared from the planet.
Granted, resurrecting the woolly mammoth using ancient DNA may sound like mad science. But Brand’s Revive and Restore project has an entirely rational goal: to learn what causes extinctions so we can protect currently endangered species, preserve genetic and biological diversity, repair depleted ecosystems, and essentially “undo harm that humans have caused in the past.”
Stewart Brand | Speaker | TED.com