TED2010
Gary Lauder's new traffic sign: Take Turns
Gary Lauder的新路标:轮流依秩
Filmed:
Readability: 3.4
633,836 views
一半的交通事故都是发生在交叉路口。Gary Lauder则提出了一不仅价格低廉又能改善路况的新路标。这种路标不但结合传统路标的特性，而且倡导文明驾驶。
Gary Lauder - Venture capitalist
Gary Lauder is the managing partner of Lauder Partners, a VC firm, and the co-creator of the Socrates Society at the Aspen Institute. Full bio
Gary Lauder is the managing partner of Lauder Partners, a VC firm, and the co-creator of the Socrates Society at the Aspen Institute. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
I only have three minutes
0
0
2000
我只有三分钟
00:17
so I'm going to have to talk fast, and it will
1
2000
2000
所以我得说快点
00:19
use up your spare mental cycles, so multitasking may be hard.
2
4000
4000
这有点劳神，因为一心多用挺累人的
00:23
So, 27 years ago I got a traffic ticket
3
8000
2000
我于27年前收到一张罚款单
00:25
that got me thinking.
4
10000
2000
这使我陷入沉思
00:27
I've had some time to think it over.
5
12000
2000
我想了又想
00:29
And energy efficiency is more than just
6
14000
2000
节约能源不单是
00:31
about the vehicle --
7
16000
2000
改造交通工具的问题
00:33
it's also about the road.
8
18000
2000
也是改造道路问题
00:35
Road design makes a difference, particularly intersections,
9
20000
2000
道路设计，尤其是交叉路口设计尤为重要
00:37
of which there are two types: signalized
10
22000
2000
交叉路口无非就两种：有交通信号灯的路口
00:39
and unsignalized, which means stop signs.
11
24000
2000
和没交通信号灯但有路标的路口
00:41
Fifty percent of crashes happen at intersections.
12
26000
2000
近一半的事故发生在没交通信号灯的路口
00:43
Roundabouts are much better.
13
28000
2000
环状交叉路的情况好一些
00:45
A study of 24 intersections
14
30000
2000
研究表明
00:47
has found crashes drop 40 percent
15
32000
3000
当被测的24个交叉路口在改造成环状交叉路后
00:50
from when you convert a traffic light into a roundabout.
16
35000
3000
车祸事故发生率下降了40%
00:53
Injury crashes have dropped 76 percent,
17
38000
3000
伤亡事故率下降了76%
00:56
fatal crashes down 90 percent.
18
41000
2000
恶性致命事故率下降了90%
00:58
But that's just safety.
19
43000
2000
不过这只是从安全角度考虑
01:00
What about time and gas?
20
45000
2000
时间和燃油呢？
01:02
So, traffic keeps flowing, so that means less braking,
21
47000
2000
只要交通流畅，司机就不会踩急刹车
01:04
which means less accelerating, less gas and less pollution,
22
49000
3000
也就不会加速，也就不会浪费燃油污染环境
01:07
less time wasted,
23
52000
2000
也不会浪费时间
01:09
and that partly accounts for Europe's better efficiency
24
54000
2000
欧洲就是这样提高能源效率的
01:11
than we have in the United States.
25
56000
2000
他们比美国做的好
01:13
So, unsignalized intersections,
26
58000
2000
没信号灯的交叉路口
01:15
meaning stop signs, they save many lives,
27
60000
2000
只有信号牌，这可事关人命
01:17
but there's an excessive proliferation of them.
28
62000
2000
但于欧洲，信号牌可是成倍的增长
01:19
Small roundabouts are starting to appear.
29
64000
3000
小型环状交叉路也开始出现
01:22
This is one in my neighborhood. And they are
30
67000
3000
这是我住的小区
01:25
much better -- better than traffic lights, better than four-way stop signs.
31
70000
3000
这些环状交叉路可比信号灯和指示牌好使多了
01:28
They're expensive to install,
32
73000
2000
但价格却不菲
01:30
but they are more expensive not to. So, we should look at that.
33
75000
3000
要是没有它们，我们会损失惨重，所以还是考虑一下吧
01:33
But they are not applicable in all situations.
34
78000
1000
但不是所有路口都可以改造成环状交叉路
01:34
So, take, for example, the three-way intersection.
35
79000
3000
譬如说，三岔路
01:37
So, it's logical that you'd have one there,
36
82000
2000
在次干道和主干道交会处安装
01:39
on the minor road entering the major.
37
84000
2000
三岔路是明智之举
01:41
But the other two are somewhat questionable.
38
86000
3000
但对于另外两个次干道来说这方法不怎么可行
01:44
So, here's one. There's another one which I studied.
39
89000
2000
我研究过这个
01:46
Cars rarely appear on that third road.
40
91000
3000
车辆很少会从第三个路口开过来
01:49
And so, the question is, what does that cost us?
41
94000
2000
这意味着什么呢？
01:51
That intersection I looked at had about 3,000
42
96000
2000
我研究的交叉路口每天各个方向大约有
01:53
cars per day in each direction,
43
98000
2000
3000辆车驶过
01:55
and so that's two ounces of gas to accelerate out of.
44
100000
2000
每踩一次油门会多消耗2盎司燃油
01:57
That's five cents each, and times 3,000 cars per day,
45
102000
2000
每盎司耗费5美分，那么每天3000辆车
01:59
that's $51,000 per year.
46
104000
3000
那每年就多花费51000美元
02:02
That's just the gasoline cost. There is also pollution,
47
107000
2000
这只不过是油钱，我还没算
02:04
wear on the car, and time.
48
109000
2000
车排放的尾气和浪费的时间
02:06
What's that time worth?
49
111000
2000
那到底浪费了多少时间呢
02:08
Well, at 10 seconds per 3,000 cars,
50
113000
2000
每一辆车要耗费10秒钟，3000辆车就是--
02:10
that's 8.3 hours per day. The average wage in the U.S.
51
115000
2000
每天八个半小时
02:12
is $20 an hour. That is 60,000 per year.
52
117000
4000
美国平均每小时工资为20美元，年工资是6万美元
02:16
Add that together with the gas, and it's $112,000 per year,
53
121000
3000
再加上油钱就是11万2千美元
02:19
just for that sign in each direction.
54
124000
2000
这就是交通路标的耗资
02:21
Discount that back to the present, at five percent:
55
126000
2000
再加上近年来的5%的通货膨胀
02:23
over two million dollars
56
128000
3000
总额超过200万
02:26
for a stop sign, in each direction.
57
131000
3000
这就是在每个方向安装一个路标的成本
02:29
Now, if you look at what that adjacent property is worth,
58
134000
4000
再看看路口周围的地价
02:33
you could actually buy the property,
59
138000
2000
你基本上可以拿这200万买下周围的地皮
02:35
cut down the shrubbery to improve the sight line,
60
140000
3000
砍掉灌木丛开阔一下视野
02:38
and then sell it off again.
61
143000
2000
然后转手卖出
02:40
And you'd still come out ahead.
62
145000
2000
还小有盈利
02:42
So, it makes one wonder, "Why is it there?"
63
147000
2000
我们不禁想：为什么？
02:44
I mean, why is there that stop sign in each direction?
64
149000
3000
为什么要在每个方向装路标呢？
02:47
Because it is saving lives. So, is there a better way to accomplish that goal?
65
152000
3000
因为救人要紧。那有没有更好的方法呢？
02:50
The answer is to enable cars
66
155000
2000
答案就是确保车辆
02:52
to come in from that side road safely.
67
157000
2000
安全地从另一边驶出
02:54
Because there are a lot of people who might live up there
68
159000
2000
因为那边有很多住户
02:56
and if they're waiting forever a long queue could form
69
161000
2000
车多了难免会排成一条长龙
02:58
because the cars aren't slowing down on the main road.
70
163000
3000
因为主干道上的车速较快
03:01
Can that be accomplished with existing signs?
71
166000
2000
现有的条件下能做到这一点吗？
03:03
So, there is a long history of stop signs and yield signs.
72
168000
3000
交通路标的历史悠久
03:06
Stop signs were invented in 1915,
73
171000
2000
标志“停”于1915年问世
03:08
yield signs in 1950. But that's all we got.
74
173000
3000
标志“让”出现在1950年。我们就只有这两种路标
03:11
So, why not use a yield sign?
75
176000
2000
为什么不用“让”呢？
03:13
Well the meaning of yield is: You must yield the right-of-way.
76
178000
3000
因为“让”意味着离开主线
03:16
That means that if there are five cars waiting, you have to wait
77
181000
2000
就是说，要有5辆车等，你也得等
03:18
till they all go, then you go. It lacks the notion
78
183000
2000
直到那5辆车开了，你才能走，
03:20
of alternating, or taking turns,
79
185000
2000
没什么换道啊，转弯啊
03:22
and it's always on the minor road,
80
187000
2000
通常主干道有
03:24
allowing the major one to have primacy.
81
189000
2000
优先权
03:26
So, it's hard to create a new meaning for the existing sign.
82
191000
2000
所以，现行的交通指示牌很难衍生出新意思
03:28
You couldn't suddenly tell everyone, "OK, remember
83
193000
2000
没人能突然宣布：
03:30
what you used to do at yield signs? Now do something different."
84
195000
2000
看到“让”是不要“让”
03:32
That would not work.
85
197000
2000
这可不行
03:34
So, what the world needs now
86
199000
2000
所以我们需要的是
03:36
is a new type of sign.
87
201000
2000
新型信号
03:38
(Applause)
88
203000
4000
（鼓掌）
03:42
So, you'd have a little instruction below it,
89
207000
3000
对于那些不看公共服务告示的人
03:45
you know, for those who didn't see the public service announcements.
90
210000
2000
新型路标下面还带有指示
03:47
And it merges the stop sign and yield signs.
91
212000
3000
是“停”和“让”的综合体
03:50
It's kind of shaped like a T, as in taking turns.
92
215000
2000
是"T"字形的
03:52
And uncertainty results in caution.
93
217000
3000
司机一旦不确定，就会提高警惕
03:55
When people come to an unfamiliar situation they don't know how to deal with
94
220000
2000
人们在不熟悉的环境下不确定时
03:57
they slow down.
95
222000
2000
会减速慢行
03:59
So, now that you are all "Road Scholars" ...
96
224000
2000
那大家现在都是道路专家了
04:01
(Laughter)
97
226000
1000
（笑）
04:02
don't wait for that sign to be adopted, these things don't change quickly.
98
227000
3000
但别指望这会很快实现，这个过程总是漫长的
04:05
But you all are members of communities,
99
230000
2000
作为社区的一员
04:07
and you can exercise your community influence
100
232000
2000
每人都有义务
04:09
to create more sensible traffic flows.
101
234000
2000
确保交通的合理顺畅
04:11
And you can have more impact on the environment
102
236000
2000
你我皆能为环境保护作出贡献
04:13
just getting your neighborhood to change these things
103
238000
2000
只需以身作则，影响身边的人
04:15
than by changing your vehicle. Thank you very much.
104
240000
3000
大家一起行动来改善交通工具吧。谢谢
04:18
(Applause)
105
243000
3000
（鼓掌）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Gary Lauder - Venture capitalistGary Lauder is the managing partner of Lauder Partners, a VC firm, and the co-creator of the Socrates Society at the Aspen Institute.
Why you should listen
Gary Lauder is the Managing Partner of Lauder Partners LLC, a Silicon Valley-based venture capital firm investing primarily in information technologies. He has been a venture capitalist since 1985, investing in some 60 private companies. He is also chair of ActiveVideo Networks, a developer of interactive television technology for cable, IPTV and other forms of internet delivery. Other directorships: Promptu, MediaFriends and ShotSpotter. Investments are primarily in television/IPTV technology and web arenas.
He is the co-creator of the Aspen Institute's Socrates Society with Laura, his wife. He has had a working cable modem (usually) in his home since 1994. He is co-inventor of 10 patents, has spoken at some 80 industry forums, and, since 1992, has published several articles about the future of the cable industry ... that he still stands by.
Gary Lauder | Speaker | TED.com