TEDIndia 2009
Hans Rosling: Asia's rise -- how and when
漢斯.羅斯林：亞洲的崛起--如何及何時
Filmed:
Readability: 3.8
2,087,444 views
漢斯.羅斯林 (Hans Rosling) 當他年輕時在印度當交換學生時，第一次了解到了亞洲有能力奪回主導世界經濟的地位。在TEDIndia，他圖解了1858年以來世界經濟的成長，並且預測印度和中國超越美國的精確日期。
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionary
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:17
Once upon a time,
0
2000
2000
很久以前
00:19
at the age of 24,
1
4000
2000
當我24歲的時候
00:21
I was a student at St. John's Medical College in Bangalore.
2
6000
5000
我是班加羅爾聖約翰醫學院的學生
00:26
I was a guest student during one month
3
11000
3000
我那是是一個月的交換學生
00:29
of a public health course.
4
14000
2000
研讀公共衛生的課程
00:31
And that changed my mindset forever.
5
16000
3000
而那一個月徹底改變了我的心態
00:34
The course was good, but it was not the course content
6
19000
3000
課程雖好，但使我心態改變的原因
00:37
in itself that changed the mindset.
7
22000
2000
不是因爲授課内容
00:39
It was the brutal realization,
8
24000
2000
而是第一個早上
00:41
the first morning,
9
26000
2000
我殘酷地了解到
00:43
that the Indian students were better than me.
10
28000
3000
印度學生竟然比我還好
00:46
(Laughter)
11
31000
1000
（笑聲）
00:47
You see, I was a study nerd.
12
32000
2000
以前的我是個書呆子
00:49
I loved statistics from a young age.
13
34000
2000
從小就喜歡統計學
00:51
And I studied very much in Sweden.
14
36000
2000
我在瑞典時也很用功
00:53
I used to be in the upper quarter of all courses I attended.
15
38000
4000
在班上我一直是前幾名
00:57
But in St. John's, I was in the lower quarter.
16
42000
4000
但是在聖約翰學院，我變成倒數的幾名
01:01
And the fact was that Indian students
17
46000
2000
印度的學生
01:03
studied harder than we did in Sweden.
18
48000
3000
都比瑞典的學生還要用功
01:06
They read the textbook twice,
19
51000
2000
他們把教科書都唸兩遍
01:08
or three times or four times.
20
53000
2000
三遍甚至四遍
01:10
In Sweden we read it once and then we went partying.
21
55000
3000
在瑞典，我們唸完一遍就去玩了
01:13
(Laugher)
22
58000
2000
（笑聲）
01:15
And that, to me,
23
60000
3000
對我而言
01:18
that personal experience
24
63000
2000
這樣子的個人體驗
01:20
was the first time in my life
25
65000
3000
是我人生中第一次
01:23
that the mindset I grew up with
26
68000
2000
使我固有的心態
01:25
was changed.
27
70000
3000
被徹底改變
01:28
And I realized that perhaps
28
73000
2000
同時我也領悟
01:30
the Western world will not continue
29
75000
2000
或許西方世界將無法
01:32
to dominate the world forever.
30
77000
3000
永遠主導全球
01:35
And I think many of you have the same sort of personal experience.
31
80000
4000
我想你們大概都有過類似的經驗
01:39
It's that realization of someone you meet
32
84000
3000
那種遇到某個人卻使你
01:42
that really made you change your ideas about the world.
33
87000
2000
對這個世界的看法完全改觀
01:44
It's not the statistics, although I tried to make it funny.
34
89000
4000
雖然我試著讓它聼起來有趣，但這不是統計學
01:48
And I will now,
35
93000
4000
接下來我會
01:52
here, onstage,
36
97000
2000
在這個台上
01:54
try to predict when that will happen --
37
99000
3000
試著來預測
01:57
that Asia will regain
38
102000
5000
什麽時候，亞洲會再奪回
02:02
its dominant position
39
107000
2000
它的優勢地位
02:04
as the leading part of the world,
40
109000
2000
來領導這個世界
02:06
as it used to be, over thousands of years.
41
111000
4000
如同過去的幾千年那樣
02:10
And I will do that
42
115000
2000
我並會試著
02:12
by trying to predict precisely
43
117000
3000
準確地預測出
02:15
at what year
44
120000
2000
在哪一年
02:17
the average income per person
45
122000
2000
在印度與中國的個人平均所得
02:19
in India, in China, will reach that of the West.
46
124000
3000
會趕上西方
02:22
And I don't mean the whole economy,
47
127000
2000
我不是指總體經濟而言
02:24
because to grow an economy
48
129000
2000
因爲要讓印度全國的經濟規模
02:26
of India to the size of U.K. --
49
131000
2000
成長到像英國那麽大
02:28
that's a piece of cake, with one billion people.
50
133000
3000
對有十億人口的印度而言是很容易的
02:31
But I want to see when will the average pay, the money
51
136000
4000
我想看的是個人平均所得
02:35
for each person, per month,
52
140000
2000
每一個人，每一個月
02:37
in India and China,
53
142000
2000
在印度和在中國的收入
02:39
when will that have reached that of U.K. and the United States?
54
144000
4000
幾時會跟英國和美國的水準一樣？
02:43
But I will start with a historical background.
55
148000
3000
我會先介紹一些歷史背景
02:46
And you can see my map if I get it up here. You know?
56
151000
3000
我把它掛上來的話你們可以看到我的圖吧？
02:49
I will start at 1858.
57
154000
3000
我從1858年開始
02:52
1858 was a year of great technological
58
157000
4000
1858年在西方
02:56
advancement in the West.
59
161000
2000
是有偉大科技進步的一年
02:58
That was the year when Queen Victoria
60
163000
3000
在這一年，維多莉亞皇后
03:01
was able, for the first time, to communicate
61
166000
2000
有史以來第一次能
03:03
with President Buchanan,
62
168000
2000
跟美國的布坎南總統通訊
03:05
through the Transatlantic Telegraphic Cable.
63
170000
3000
他們是透過大西洋底的電報纜來通訊
03:08
And they were the first to "Twitter" transatlantically.
64
173000
3000
而且他們也是第一對橫跨大西洋使用"Twitter"的人
03:11
(Laughter)
65
176000
1000
（笑聲）
03:12
(Applause)
66
177000
4000
（掌聲）
03:16
And I've been able, through this wonderful Google and Internet,
67
181000
3000
透過網路和 Google
03:19
to find the text of the telegram
68
184000
2000
讓我找到了
03:21
sent back from President Buchanan to Queen Victoria.
69
186000
4000
布坎南回送給維多利亞的電報内容
03:25
And it ends like this: "This telegraph
70
190000
3000
最後一行說：這個電報
03:28
is a fantastic instrument to diffuse religion,
71
193000
2000
將是一個神奇的工具
03:30
civilization, liberty and law throughout the world."
72
195000
4000
可以用來向全世界傳播宗教、文明、自由、和法律。
03:34
Those are nice words. But I got sort of curious
73
199000
3000
這些話是挺動聽的。但是我很好奇想知道
03:37
of what he meant with liberty, and liberty for whom.
74
202000
4000
他說的自由是什麽意思，是誰的自由？
03:41
And we will think about that
75
206000
2000
當我們更完整地看1858年的世界的話
03:43
when we look at the wider picture of the world in 1858.
76
208000
4000
我們勢必會再想想。
03:47
Because 1858
77
212000
2000
因爲1858年
03:49
was also watershed year
78
214000
3000
在亞洲的歷史上
03:52
in the history of Asia.
79
217000
2000
是個分水嶺
03:54
1858 was the year
80
219000
2000
在1858年
03:56
when the courageous uprising
81
221000
2000
勇敢的印度人起義反抗
03:58
against the foreign occupation of India
82
223000
3000
對抗外來的統治政權
04:01
was defeated by the British forces.
83
226000
2000
卻被英國軍隊打敗
04:03
And India was up to 89 years more of foreign domination.
84
228000
5000
使得印度又再忍受89年外國勢力的統治
04:08
1858 in China
85
233000
2000
1858年在中國
04:10
was the victory in the Opium War by the British forces.
86
235000
4000
英國軍隊打勝了鴉片戰爭
04:14
And that meant that foreigners, as it said in the treaty,
87
239000
3000
戰後的條約使得外國人
04:17
were allowed to trade freely in China.
88
242000
2000
可以自由地在中國從事賣賣
04:19
It meant paying with opium for Chinese goods.
89
244000
4000
他們用鴉片來買中國的物產
04:23
And 1858 in Japan
90
248000
2000
1858年在日本
04:25
was the year when Japan had to sign the Harris Treaty
91
250000
3000
簽署了哈里斯條約
04:28
and accept trade on favorable condition for the U.S.
92
253000
4000
使得美國佔有貿易優勢
04:32
And they were threatened by those black ships there,
93
257000
4000
之前一年，那些在東京港出現的黑船
04:36
that had been in Tokyo harbor over the last year.
94
261000
2000
已使日本飽受威脅
04:38
But, Japan, in contrast to India and China,
95
263000
4000
但是，跟印度和中國不同的是
04:42
maintained its national sovereignty.
96
267000
3000
日本得以保持國家主權的完整
04:45
And let's see how much difference that can make.
97
270000
3000
我們可以看看這在以後產生了什麽差異
04:48
And I will do that by bringing these bubbles
98
273000
3000
我會用這些泡泡
04:51
back to a Gapminder graph here,
99
276000
2000
在Gapminder圖上顯示
04:53
where you can see each bubble is a country.
100
278000
3000
每一個泡泡代表的是一個國家
04:56
The size of the bubble here is the population.
101
281000
3000
泡泡的大小表示國家人口
04:59
On this axis, as I used to have income per person in comparable dollar.
102
284000
5000
在X軸，是換算成美元的人均收入
05:04
And on that axis I have life expectancy, the health of people.
103
289000
4000
Y軸表示平均壽命，人民的健康
05:08
And I also bring an innovation here.
104
293000
2000
在這兒，我也帶來了一點創新：
05:10
I have transformed the laser beam
105
295000
3000
在這個綠色的印度，我已經把雷射光筆
05:13
into an ecological, recyclable version here, in green India.
106
298000
5000
換成環保可回收的式樣了
05:18
(Applause)
107
303000
4000
（掌聲）
05:22
And we will see, you know.
108
307000
3000
我們將開始流覽，
05:25
Look here, 1858, India was here,
109
310000
3000
看這裡，1858年的印度在這裡
05:28
China was here, Japan was there,
110
313000
2000
中國在這裡，日本在那裏
05:30
United States and United Kingdom
111
315000
2000
美國，英國
05:32
was richer over there.
112
317000
2000
在那裏，他們比較有錢
05:34
And I will start the world like this.
113
319000
3000
我從這裡開始世界
05:37
India was not always like this level.
114
322000
2000
印度以前的水準不是一直這樣的
05:39
Actually if we go back into the historical record,
115
324000
2000
我們如果回頭看看歷史的記載
05:41
there was a time hundreds of years ago
116
326000
2000
幾百年前
05:43
when the income per person in India and China
117
328000
2000
印度和中國的個人所得
05:45
was even above that of Europe.
118
330000
2000
是在歐洲之上的
05:47
But 1850 had already been many, many years of foreign domination,
119
332000
4000
但在1850年，已有很多年的外國勢力統治
05:51
and India had been de-industrialized.
120
336000
3000
印度的工業生產能力被削減了
05:54
And you can see that the countries who were growing
121
339000
2000
你可以看到那些經濟有所成長的國家
05:56
their economy was United States and United Kingdom.
122
341000
2000
是美國及英國
05:58
And they were also, by the end of the century, getting healthy,
123
343000
3000
而在世紀末時，他們的國民也更健康了
06:01
and Japan was starting to catch up.
124
346000
2000
日本也開始急起直追
06:03
India was trying down here.
125
348000
2000
印度還停留在下面
06:05
Can you see how it starts to move there?
126
350000
2000
你看得到它是如何往那裏移動的嗎？
06:07
But really, really natural sovereignty was good for Japan.
127
352000
4000
主權完整對日本來説是很有益的
06:11
And Japan is trying to move up there.
128
356000
2000
日本一直往上移動
06:13
And it's the new century now. Health is getting better,
129
358000
2000
進入新的世紀，國民健康越來越好
06:15
United Kingdom, United States.
130
360000
2000
英國，美國
06:17
But careful now -- we are approaching the First World War.
131
362000
3000
但是小心，我們現在接近第一次世界大戰
06:20
And the First World War, you know,
132
365000
2000
第一次世界大戰，你也知道
06:22
we'll see a lot of deaths and economical problems here.
133
367000
4000
我們會看到很多死亡和經濟問題
06:26
United Kingdom is going down.
134
371000
2000
英國開始走下坡
06:28
And now comes the Spanish flu also.
135
373000
2000
現在又有西班牙流感
06:30
And then after the First World War, they continue up.
136
375000
3000
第一次世界大戰過後，他們持續上升
06:33
Still under foreign domination, and without sovereignty,
137
378000
3000
仍然在外國政權的統治下，沒有獨立主權
06:36
India and China are down in the corner.
138
381000
2000
印度和中國仍在下面的角落
06:38
Not much has happened.
139
383000
2000
沒什麽大改變
06:40
They have grown their population but not much more.
140
385000
2000
他們的人口有增加，此外就沒什麽變化
06:42
In the 1930's now, you can see
141
387000
2000
到了1930年，你可以看到
06:44
that Japan is going to a period of war,
142
389000
3000
日本在戰爭時期
06:47
with lower life expectancy.
143
392000
2000
國民壽命不長
06:49
And the Second World War was really a terrible event,
144
394000
2000
第二次世界大戰對日本來説是一段可怕的經歷
06:51
also economically for Japan.
145
396000
2000
在經濟上也是如此
06:53
But they did recover quite fast afterwards.
146
398000
2000
但戰後他們恢復得相當迅速
06:55
And we are moving into the new world.
147
400000
2000
接下來我們進入了一個新世界
06:57
In 1947 India finally
148
402000
3000
印度在1947年
07:00
gained its independence.
149
405000
2000
終於獲得獨立了
07:02
And they could raise the Indian flag and become a sovereign nation,
150
407000
4000
他們終於可以升上國旗，成為一個主權國家
07:06
but in very big difficulties down there.
151
411000
3000
但是他們還是在停留在下面，舉步維艱
07:09
(Applause)
152
414000
3000
（掌聲）
07:12
In 1949 we saw the emergence of the modern China
153
417000
4000
在1949年，我們看到了新中國的誕生
07:16
in a way which surprised the world.
154
421000
2000
這讓全世界都感到驚訝
07:18
And what happened?
155
423000
2000
之後呢？
07:20
What happens in the after independence?
156
425000
2000
新中國成立後發生什麽呢？
07:22
You can see that the health started to improve.
157
427000
2000
你可以看到國民健康開始有進步
07:24
Children started to go to school.
158
429000
2000
孩童開始去學校
07:26
Health services were provided.
159
431000
2000
開始有醫療設施
07:28
This is the Great Leap Forward, when China fell down.
160
433000
4000
而在大躍進時期，中國摔了一大跤
07:32
It was central planning by Mao Tse Tung.
161
437000
2000
那是毛澤東的計畫經濟
07:34
China recovered. Then they said,
162
439000
2000
中國恢復了以後，他們就說
07:36
"Nevermore, stupid central planning."
163
441000
2000
“愚蠢的計畫經濟，以後別再搞了”
07:38
But they went up here, and India was trying to follow.
164
443000
3000
中國開始往上，印度緊追在後
07:41
And they were catching up indeed.
165
446000
2000
接著印度開始趕上
07:43
And both countries had the better health, but still
166
448000
2000
兩個國家的國民健康都有所改善
07:45
a very low economy.
167
450000
2000
但是經濟所得仍然不高
07:47
And we came to 1978, and Mao Tse Tung died,
168
452000
3000
到1978年毛澤東死了
07:50
and a new guy turned up from the left.
169
455000
3000
新的領導人從左邊出現
07:53
And it was Deng Xiaoping coming out here.
170
458000
3000
那是鄧小平
07:56
And he said, "Doesn't matter
171
461000
2000
他說：“不管黑貓白貓
07:58
if a cat is white or black,
172
463000
2000
只要是會抓老鼠的
08:00
as long as it catches mice."
173
465000
2000
就是好貓”
08:02
Because catching mice
174
467000
2000
因爲抓老鼠
08:04
is what the two cats wanted to do.
175
469000
3000
是這兩隻貓想做的
08:07
And you can see the two cats being here,
176
472000
3000
你可以看到中國和印度
08:10
China and India, wanting to catch the mices over there, you know.
177
475000
3000
這兩隻貓想要抓到在那裏的老鼠
08:13
And they decided to go not only for health and education,
178
478000
3000
他們決定不只要發展醫療和教育
08:16
but also starting to grow their economy.
179
481000
2000
也要開始發展經濟
08:18
And the market reformer was successful there.
180
483000
2000
市場改革在那裏也是成功的
08:20
In '92 India follows with a market reform.
181
485000
3000
1992年，印度也開始了市場改革
08:23
And they go quite closely together,
182
488000
2000
他們互相跟得很近
08:25
and you can see that the similarity with India and China,
183
490000
2000
你可以看到印度和中國的相似性
08:27
in many ways, are greater than the differences with them.
184
492000
3000
在很多方面，他們之間的相似性大於差異
08:30
And here they march on. And will they catch up?
185
495000
2000
他們還一直往前進。他們最後會趕上嗎？
08:32
This is the big question today.
186
497000
2000
這是當今一個大哉問
08:34
There they are today.
187
499000
2000
現在他們在那裏
08:36
Now what does it mean that the --
188
501000
2000
這平均值是什麽意思
08:38
(Applause)
189
503000
3000
（掌聲）
08:41
the averages there -- this is the average of China.
190
506000
3000
這是中國的平均值
08:44
If I would split China, look here,
191
509000
2000
如果我把中國分開來看
08:46
Shanghai has already catched up.
192
511000
3000
上海已經趕上了
08:49
Shanghai is already there.
193
514000
2000
上海已經在上頭的那一端
08:51
And it's healthier than the United States.
194
516000
4000
其居民的壽命比美國人還長
08:55
But on the other hand, Guizhou, one of the poorest
195
520000
3000
但另一方面，貴州，中國最窮的一省
08:58
inland provinces of China, is there.
196
523000
3000
在中國的内陸，還在下面那裏
09:01
And if I split Guizhou into urban and rural,
197
526000
4000
如果我把貴州分成城市及鄉下來看
09:05
the rural part of Guizhou goes down there.
198
530000
3000
貴州鄉下會再往下降
09:08
You see this enormous inequity in China,
199
533000
3000
你可以看到，在其快速的經濟發展下
09:11
in the midst of fast economic growth.
200
536000
2000
中國境内有極大的貧富不均
09:13
And if I would also look at India,
201
538000
2000
如果我們也看看印度
09:15
you have another type of inequity, actually, in India.
202
540000
3000
你可以看到那是另一種的貧富不均
09:18
The geographical, macro-geographical difference is not so big.
203
543000
5000
在地理或巨觀地理上的差異並不大
09:23
Uttar Pradesh, the biggest of the states here,
204
548000
2000
“北方邦”，印度的最大邦
09:25
is poorer and has a lower health than the rest of India.
205
550000
3000
比起其它邦是比較窮也不健康的
09:28
Kerala is flying on top there,
206
553000
3000
克拉拉邦則領先其他邦
09:31
matching United States in health,
207
556000
2000
在國民健康上跟美國一樣
09:33
but not in economy.
208
558000
2000
在經濟上就差一截
09:35
And here, Maharashtra, with Mumbai,
209
560000
2000
馬哈拉施特拉邦，孟買的所在地
09:37
is forging forward.
210
562000
2000
正在往前進
09:39
Now in India, the big inequities are within the state,
211
564000
3000
現在在印度，最大的不平均是出現在同一個邦裏面
09:42
rather than between the states.
212
567000
2000
而不是在兩個邦之間
09:44
And that is not a bad thing, in itself.
213
569000
3000
這並不是件太壞的事
09:47
If you have a lot inequity, macro-geographical inequities
214
572000
4000
你如果在巨觀地理上有太大的差異
09:51
can be more difficult in the long term to deal with,
215
576000
3000
這在長期來説是難以應付的
09:54
than if it is in the same area where you have a growth center
216
579000
3000
但你如果在各個區域都有一個經濟成長中心
09:57
relatively close to where poor people are living.
217
582000
3000
離窮人們住的地方不遠的話，這就還好。
10:00
No, there is one more inequity. Look there, United States.
218
585000
3000
看這裡，另一個貧富不均例子在美國
10:03
(Laughter)
219
588000
1000
（笑聲）
10:04
Oh, they broke my frame.
220
589000
2000
他們已經把我的框框撐破了
10:06
Washington, D.C. went out here.
221
591000
3000
華盛頓特區跑去那裏
10:09
My friends at Gapminder wanted me to show this
222
594000
3000
我在Gapminder基金會工作的朋友要我把這給大家看
10:12
because there is a new leader in Washington
223
597000
2000
因爲在華盛頓有了一個新領導人
10:14
who is really concerned about the health system.
224
599000
2000
他很關心健保系統
10:16
And I can understand him, because Washington, D.C.
225
601000
3000
我想我能夠了解，因爲在華盛頓
10:19
is so rich over there
226
604000
3000
居民收入已經高到那裏
10:22
but they are not as healthy as Kerala.
227
607000
2000
但是他們比印度克拉拉邦的居民還短命
10:24
It's quite interesting, isn't it?
228
609000
2000
這不是很有趣嗎？
10:26
(Applause)
229
611000
5000
（掌聲）
10:31
I can see a business opportunity for Kerala,
230
616000
3000
我幫克拉拉邦找到了一個商機
10:34
helping fix the health system in the United States.
231
619000
2000
那就是去整頓美國的健保系統
10:36
(Laughter)
232
621000
2000
（笑聲）
10:38
(Applause)
233
623000
2000
（掌聲）
10:40
Now here we have the whole world. You have the legend down there.
234
625000
3000
現在我們來看全球的資料
10:43
And when you see the two giant cats here, pushing forward,
235
628000
4000
這兩隻巨貓在這裡，一直往前進
10:47
you see that in between them
236
632000
2000
你可以看見，在他們之間
10:49
and ahead of them,
237
634000
2000
和在他們之前的
10:51
is the whole emerging economies of the world,
238
636000
2000
都是當今的已開發國家
10:53
which Thomas Friedman so correctly called the "flat world."
239
638000
4000
是湯馬斯·佛里曼(Thomas Friedman)所稱的“平的世界”
10:57
You can see that in health and education,
240
642000
2000
你可以看見在很大一部分的世界人口中
10:59
a large part of the world population is putting forward,
241
644000
3000
教育和經濟都在進步
11:02
but in Africa, and other parts,
242
647000
2000
但在非洲和其他地方
11:04
as in rural Guizhou in China,
243
649000
2000
譬如中國貴州的鄉下
11:06
there is still people with low health and very low economy.
244
651000
3000
仍然有很多人生活貧困、壽命不長
11:09
We have an enormous disparity in the world.
245
654000
2000
我們的世界有很嚴重的貧富不均
11:11
But most of the world in the middle are pushing forwards very fast.
246
656000
5000
但是大部分在中間的都進步很快
11:16
Now, back to my projections.
247
661000
2000
現在，回到我的預測路線圖
11:18
When will it catch up? I have to go back to very conventional graph.
248
663000
5000
什麽時候可以趕上？我必須回來用傳統的圖
11:23
I will show income per person on this axis instead,
249
668000
3000
我把人均所得換到Y軸去
11:26
poor down here, rich up there.
250
671000
2000
收入低的在下面，高的在上面
11:28
And then time here, from 1858
251
673000
2000
時間是1858年
11:30
I start the world.
252
675000
2000
開始
11:32
And we shall see what will happen with these countries.
253
677000
3000
我們看這些國家將發生什麽事
11:35
You see, China under foreign domination
254
680000
3000
中國在外國政權的統治下
11:38
actually lowered their income and came down to the Indian level here.
255
683000
3000
國民所得實際上是降低了，往印度的水準過去
11:41
Whereas U.K. and United States is getting richer and richer.
256
686000
4000
同一時間英國和美國越來越有錢
11:45
And after Second World War, United States is richer than U.K.
257
690000
3000
在二次世界大戰後，美國比英國還有錢
11:48
But independence is coming here.
258
693000
2000
中國在這時獨立了
11:50
Growth is starting, economic reform.
259
695000
2000
經濟開始成長，經濟有了改革
11:52
Growth is faster, and with projection from IMF
260
697000
3000
成長變更快，再加上國際貨幣組織的挹注
11:55
you can see where you expect them to be in 2014.
261
700000
4000
你可以看到2014年預測到達的地方
11:59
Now, the question is, "When will the catch up take place?"
262
704000
5000
現在，問題是：什麽時候會追趕上？
12:04
Look at, look at the United States.
263
709000
2000
來看看美國
12:06
Can you see the bubble?
264
711000
2000
你們可以看到泡泡嗎？
12:08
The bubbles, not my bubbles,
265
713000
2000
這不是我的泡泡
12:10
but the financial bubbles.
266
715000
2000
而是金融的泡沫化
12:12
That's the dot com bubble. This is the Lehman Brothers doorstep there.
267
717000
5000
那是網路的泡沫化。這是雷曼兄弟的破產
12:17
You see it came down there.
268
722000
2000
你可以看到他往下掉
12:19
And it seems this is another rock coming down there, you know.
269
724000
5000
這看起來是北岩銀行被政府接管
12:24
So they doesn't seem to go this way, these countries.
270
729000
3000
看起來這些國家並不是一直往上走
12:27
They seem to go in a more humble growth way, you know.
271
732000
3000
他們的成長變得比較緩慢了
12:30
And people interested in growth
272
735000
2000
對經濟成長有興趣的人
12:32
are turning their eyes towards Asia.
273
737000
3000
都把目光轉到亞洲
12:35
I can compare to Japan. This is Japan coming up.
274
740000
3000
拿日本來做比較。這個是日本上來了
12:38
You see, Japan did it like that.
275
743000
2000
你看，日本是那樣往上走的
12:40
We add Japan to it.
276
745000
2000
我們把日本放進來
12:42
And there is no doubt that fast catch up
277
747000
3000
我們可以看到：快速的發展
12:45
can take place.
278
750000
2000
是有可能發生的
12:47
Can you see here what Japan did?
279
752000
2000
你看到日本了嗎？
12:49
Japan did it like this, until full catch up,
280
754000
2000
日本是這樣發展的，一直到完全趕上
12:51
and then they follow with the other high-income economies.
281
756000
4000
接下來還一直跟高所得國家齊頭並進
12:55
But the real projections for those ones,
282
760000
3000
但是如果真要預測這些國家的未來走勢
12:58
I would like to give it like this.
283
763000
5000
我傾向用這個
13:03
Can be worse, can be better.
284
768000
2000
有可能更好，也有可能更壞
13:05
It's always difficult to predict, especially about the future.
285
770000
4000
要預測什麽總是難的，尤其是關於未來
13:09
Now, a historian tells me it's even more difficult to predict about the past.
286
774000
3000
可是，一個歷史學家告訴我，預測過去還要更困難
13:12
(Laughter)
287
777000
2000
（笑聲）
13:14
I think I'm in a difficult position here.
288
779000
3000
我想我現在處在一個困難的階段
13:17
Inequalities in China and India
289
782000
2000
在中國和印度的不平等
13:19
I consider really the big obstacle
290
784000
4000
我認爲是很大的障礙
13:23
because to bring the entire population into growth and prosperity
291
788000
4000
因爲要帶給整個社會成長和繁榮
13:27
is what will create a domestic market,
292
792000
2000
必須要創造一個内需市場
13:29
what will avoid social instability,
293
794000
3000
避免社會的不穩定
13:32
and which will make use of the entire capacity
294
797000
3000
並使用到整個社會人口的
13:35
of the population.
295
800000
2000
全部潛能
13:37
So, social investments in health, education and infrastructure,
296
802000
4000
所以，中國和印度真正需要的是
13:41
and electricity is really what is needed in India and China.
297
806000
6000
對醫療、教育、基礎建設、和電力設施的公共投資
13:47
You know the climate. We have great international experts
298
812000
3000
你們也知道氣候的問題。在印度有國際知名的專家告訴我們
13:50
within India telling us that the climate is changing,
299
815000
3000
全球氣候正在變化
13:53
and actions has to be taken,
300
818000
2000
我們必須採取行動
13:55
otherwise China and India would be the countries
301
820000
3000
要不然中國和印度將會是
13:58
most to suffer from climate change.
302
823000
2000
受全球暖化危害最深的國家
14:00
And I consider India and China the best partners in the world
303
825000
3000
我認爲中印兩國是世界上
14:03
in a good global climate policy.
304
828000
3000
在制定氣候政策上的最佳夥伴
14:06
But they ain't going to pay
305
831000
2000
但是他們不會為這些有錢國家
14:08
for what others, who have more money,
306
833000
2000
所造成的後果來買單
14:10
have largely created, and I can agree on that.
307
835000
3000
我可以同意這點
14:13
But what I'm really worried about is war.
308
838000
3000
但是我真正擔心的是戰爭
14:16
Will the former rich countries really accept
309
841000
2000
有錢的國家真的可以接受
14:18
a completely changed world economy,
310
843000
3000
一個完全改變的世界經濟嗎？
14:21
and a shift of power away from where it has been
311
846000
3000
他們可以接受過去50、100年、
14:24
the last 50 to 100 to 150 years,
312
849000
2000
150年間享有的權力
14:26
back to Asia?
313
851000
2000
被亞洲奪回嗎？
14:28
And will Asia be able to handle that
314
853000
2000
又，亞洲能夠處理
14:30
new position of being in charge
315
855000
2000
它的新地位
14:32
of being the most mighty, and the governors of the world?
316
857000
3000
作為世界第一強權統理世界嗎？
14:35
So, always avoid war,
317
860000
2000
所以，一定要避免戰爭
14:37
because that always pushes human beings backward.
318
862000
3000
因爲戰爭總是使人類文明往後退
14:40
Now if these inequalities, climate and war can be avoided,
319
865000
4000
如果這些貧富不均、氣候、和戰爭問題能避免的話
14:44
get ready for a world in equity,
320
869000
3000
我們將可以準備迎接一個平等的世界
14:47
because this is what seems to be happening.
321
872000
3000
因爲這些是看起來即將要發生的事
14:50
And that vision that I got as a young student,
322
875000
2000
而這個1972年我還在做學生時洞察到的看法
14:52
1972, that Indians can be much better than Swedes,
323
877000
6000
印度人會比瑞典人還好
14:58
is just about to happen.
324
883000
2000
正在發生
15:00
And it will happen precisely
325
885000
3000
更精確地説
15:03
the year 2048
326
888000
4000
它會發生在2048年
15:07
in the later part of the summer, in July,
327
892000
3000
夏天的尾聲，在七月
15:10
more precisely, the 27th of July.
328
895000
3000
再更精確來説，七月二十七號
15:13
(Applause)
329
898000
8000
（掌聲）
15:21
The 27th of July, 2048
330
906000
4000
2048年7月27號
15:25
is my 100th birthday.
331
910000
2000
是我100歲的生日
15:27
(Laughter)
332
912000
2000
（笑聲）
15:29
And I expect to speak
333
914000
2000
我希望可以再來演講
15:31
in the first session of the 39th TED India.
334
916000
4000
在39屆印度TED的研討會
15:35
Get your bookings in time. Thank you very much.
335
920000
3000
記得要及早定位。謝謝大家
15:38
(Applause)
336
923000
7000
（掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionaryIn Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus.
Why you should listen
Even the most worldly and well-traveled among us have had their perspectives shifted by Hans Rosling. A professor of global health at Sweden's Karolinska Institute, his work focused on dispelling common myths about the so-called developing world, which (as he pointed out) is no longer worlds away from the West. In fact, most of the Third World is on the same trajectory toward health and prosperity, and many countries are moving twice as fast as the west did.
What set Rosling apart wasn't just his apt observations of broad social and economic trends, but the stunning way he presented them. Guaranteed: You've never seen data presented like this. A presentation that tracks global health and poverty trends should be, in a word: boring. But in Rosling's hands, data sings. Trends come to life. And the big picture — usually hazy at best — snaps into sharp focus.
Rosling's presentations were grounded in solid statistics (often drawn from United Nations and World Bank data), illustrated by the visualization software he developed. The animations transform development statistics into moving bubbles and flowing curves that make global trends clear, intuitive and even playful. During his legendary presentations, Rosling took this one step farther, narrating the animations with a sportscaster's flair.
Rosling developed the breakthrough software behind his visualizations through his nonprofit Gapminder, founded with his son and daughter-in-law. The free software — which can be loaded with any data — was purchased by Google in March 2007. (Rosling met the Google founders at TED.)
Rosling began his wide-ranging career as a physician, spending many years in rural Africa tracking a rare paralytic disease (which he named konzo) and discovering its cause: hunger and badly processed cassava. He co-founded Médecins sans Frontièrs (Doctors without Borders) Sweden, wrote a textbook on global health, and as a professor at the Karolinska Institut in Stockholm initiated key international research collaborations. He's also personally argued with many heads of state, including Fidel Castro.
Hans Rosling passed away in February 2017. He is greatly missed.
Hans Rosling | Speaker | TED.com