TEDIndia 2009
Hans Rosling: Asia's rise -- how and when
Hans Rosling: Uspon Azije -- kako i kada
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Hans Rosling bio je mladi gostujući student u Indiji kada je prvi put shvatio da Azija ima kapacitet da ponovo postane vodeća svjetska gospodarska sila. Na TEDIndia on grafički prikazuje svjetski gospodarski rast od 1858. i predviđa točan datum kada će Kina i Indija prestići SAD.
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionary
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:17
Once upon a time,
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Jednom davno,
00:19
at the age of 24,
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kad sam imao 24 godine,
00:21
I was a student at St. John's Medical College in Bangalore.
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bio sam student medicinskog koledža St. John u Bangaloreu.
00:26
I was a guest student during one month
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Bio sam gostujući student tijekom jednomjesečnog seminara
00:29
of a public health course.
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o javnom zdravstvu.
00:31
And that changed my mindset forever.
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I to je zauvijek promijenilo moj način razmišljanja.
00:34
The course was good, but it was not the course content
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Kurs je bio dobar, ali njegov sadržaj nije ono
00:37
in itself that changed the mindset.
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što je promijenilo moj način razmišljanja.
00:39
It was the brutal realization,
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Bila je to brutalna istina,
00:41
the first morning,
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koju sam shvatio prvog jutra,
00:43
that the Indian students were better than me.
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da su indijski studenti bolji od mene.
00:46
(Laughter)
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(smijeh)
00:47
You see, I was a study nerd.
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Vidite, ja sam bio štreber.
00:49
I loved statistics from a young age.
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Volio sam statistiku od rane mladosti.
00:51
And I studied very much in Sweden.
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I marljivo sam učio u Švedskoj.
00:53
I used to be in the upper quarter of all courses I attended.
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Bio sam u najboljoj četvrtini svih seminara koje sam pohađao.
00:57
But in St. John's, I was in the lower quarter.
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No, u St. John-u bio sam u najlošijoj četvrtini.
01:01
And the fact was that Indian students
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Činjenica je bila da su indijski studenti
01:03
studied harder than we did in Sweden.
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učili puno više nego mi u Švedskoj.
01:06
They read the textbook twice,
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Oni bi pročitali udžbenik dva puta,
01:08
or three times or four times.
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ili tri ili četiri puta.
01:10
In Sweden we read it once and then we went partying.
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U Švedskoj smo ga pročitali jednom i zatim otišli na tulum.
01:13
(Laugher)
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(smijeh)
01:15
And that, to me,
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I to je, meni,
01:18
that personal experience
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to osobno iskustvo,
01:20
was the first time in my life
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prvi put u mom životu
01:23
that the mindset I grew up with
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promijenilo razmišljanje
01:25
was changed.
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s kojim sam odrastao.
01:28
And I realized that perhaps
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I shvatio sam da možda
01:30
the Western world will not continue
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Zapad neće nastaviti
01:32
to dominate the world forever.
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dominirati svijetom zauvijek.
01:35
And I think many of you have the same sort of personal experience.
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Mislim da mnogi od vas imaju slična osobna iskustva.
01:39
It's that realization of someone you meet
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To je spoznaja da je netko koga ste upoznali
01:42
that really made you change your ideas about the world.
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zaista promijenio vaš pogled na svijet.
01:44
It's not the statistics, although I tried to make it funny.
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To nisu samo statistike, iako to ja pokušavam prikazati na zabavan način.
01:48
And I will now,
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Ja ću sada,
01:52
here, onstage,
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ovdje, na pozornici,
01:54
try to predict when that will happen --
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pokušati predvidjeti kad će se to dogoditi,
01:57
that Asia will regain
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da Azija vrati
02:02
its dominant position
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svoj dominantan položaj
02:04
as the leading part of the world,
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kao vodeći dio svijeta,
02:06
as it used to be, over thousands of years.
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kao što je to bilo nekad, tisućama godina.
02:10
And I will do that
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Ja ću to učiniti tako
02:12
by trying to predict precisely
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da pokušam precizno predvidjeti
02:15
at what year
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koje će godine
02:17
the average income per person
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prosječan prihod po osobi
02:19
in India, in China, will reach that of the West.
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u Indiji i Kini, dostići onaj na Zapadu.
02:22
And I don't mean the whole economy,
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Pri tome ne mislim na cijelo gospodarstvo,
02:24
because to grow an economy
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jer porast ekonomije u Indiji
02:26
of India to the size of U.K. --
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na veličinu ekonomije Velike Britanije,
02:28
that's a piece of cake, with one billion people.
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vrlo je lako, s jednom milijardom ljudi.
02:31
But I want to see when will the average pay, the money
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Ja želim znati kada će prosječna plaća, novac
02:35
for each person, per month,
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po svakoj osobi, mjesečno,
02:37
in India and China,
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u Indiji i Kini,
02:39
when will that have reached that of U.K. and the United States?
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doseći plaće u Velikoj Britaniji i SAD-u?
02:43
But I will start with a historical background.
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Počet ću s povijesnim pregledom.
02:46
And you can see my map if I get it up here. You know?
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Možete vidjeti moju mapu, zar ne?
02:49
I will start at 1858.
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Počet ću s 1858.g.
02:52
1858 was a year of great technological
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1858. je bila godina velikog tehnološkog
02:56
advancement in the West.
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napretka na Zapadu.
02:58
That was the year when Queen Victoria
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Te godine je Kraljica Victoria
03:01
was able, for the first time, to communicate
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prvi put bila u mogućnosti komunicirati
03:03
with President Buchanan,
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s predsjednikom Buchananom,
03:05
through the Transatlantic Telegraphic Cable.
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preko transatlantskog telegrafskog kabla.
03:08
And they were the first to "Twitter" transatlantically.
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Oni su bili prvi koji su cvrkutali ("Twitter") preko oceana.
03:11
(Laughter)
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(smijeh)
03:12
(Applause)
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(pljesak)
03:16
And I've been able, through this wonderful Google and Internet,
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Uz pomoć ovog divnog Googla i Interneta,
03:19
to find the text of the telegram
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uspio sam pronaći tekst telegrama
03:21
sent back from President Buchanan to Queen Victoria.
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koji je Buchanan poslao kraljici Victorii.
03:25
And it ends like this: "This telegraph
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Završavao je ovako: "Ovaj telegraf
03:28
is a fantastic instrument to diffuse religion,
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je sjajan instrument za promicanje religije,
03:30
civilization, liberty and law throughout the world."
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civilizacije, slobode i prava diljem svijeta."
03:34
Those are nice words. But I got sort of curious
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To su lijepe riječi. Ali postao sam radoznao
03:37
of what he meant with liberty, and liberty for whom.
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što je on mislio pod slobodom, i slobodom za koga.
03:41
And we will think about that
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Razmislimo o tome
03:43
when we look at the wider picture of the world in 1858.
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kada gledamo širu sliku svijeta u 1858-oj.
03:47
Because 1858
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Jer 1858. g.
03:49
was also watershed year
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bila je prekretnica
03:52
in the history of Asia.
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u povijesti Azije.
03:54
1858 was the year
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1858. je bila godina
03:56
when the courageous uprising
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kada je hrabri ustanak
03:58
against the foreign occupation of India
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protiv strane okupacije Indije
04:01
was defeated by the British forces.
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ugušila britanska vojska.
04:03
And India was up to 89 years more of foreign domination.
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A Indija je podvrgnuta dodatnih 89 godina stranoj dominaciji.
04:08
1858 in China
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1858. u Kini
04:10
was the victory in the Opium War by the British forces.
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bila je godina pobjede britanske vojske u Opijumskom ratu.
04:14
And that meant that foreigners, as it said in the treaty,
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To je značilo da stranci, kako je rečeno u mirovnom sporazumu,
04:17
were allowed to trade freely in China.
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mogu slobodno trgovati u Kini.
04:19
It meant paying with opium for Chinese goods.
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To je značilo plaćati opijumom za kinesku robu.
04:23
And 1858 in Japan
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1858. u Japanu
04:25
was the year when Japan had to sign the Harris Treaty
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bila je godina kad je Japan morao potpisati Harrisov sporazum
04:28
and accept trade on favorable condition for the U.S.
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i prihvatiti trgovinu pod uvjetima povoljnima za SAD.
04:32
And they were threatened by those black ships there,
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To je bilo pod prijetnjom crnih brodova
04:36
that had been in Tokyo harbor over the last year.
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koji su preko godinu dana bili usidreni u luci u Tokyu.
04:38
But, Japan, in contrast to India and China,
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Ali Japan je, za razliku od Indije i Kine
04:42
maintained its national sovereignty.
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zadržao nacionalni suverenitet.
04:45
And let's see how much difference that can make.
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Pogledajmo kakvu razliku to čini.
04:48
And I will do that by bringing these bubbles
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Pokazat ću to tako da stavim ove balončiće
04:51
back to a Gapminder graph here,
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natrag u Gapminder graf
04:53
where you can see each bubble is a country.
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gdje je svaki balončić jedna zemlja.
04:56
The size of the bubble here is the population.
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Veličina balončića je veličina populacije.
04:59
On this axis, as I used to have income per person in comparable dollar.
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Na ovoj osi (x) je prihod po osobi u komparativnoj valuti.
05:04
And on that axis I have life expectancy, the health of people.
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Na drugoj osi (y) je očekivano trajanje života, zdravlje ljudi.
05:08
And I also bring an innovation here.
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Uvodim još jednu inovaciju ovdje.
05:10
I have transformed the laser beam
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Transformirao sam lasersku zraku
05:13
into an ecological, recyclable version here, in green India.
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u njezinu ekološku verziju koja se može reciklirati, ovdje u zelenoj Indiji.
05:18
(Applause)
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(pljesak)
05:22
And we will see, you know.
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I sad ćemo vidjeti.
05:25
Look here, 1858, India was here,
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Gledajte, 1858, Indija je ovdje,
05:28
China was here, Japan was there,
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tu je Kina, tamo Japan
05:30
United States and United Kingdom
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Sjedinjene američe države i Velika Britanija
05:32
was richer over there.
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bile su bogatije, tamo.
05:34
And I will start the world like this.
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I sad ću pokrenuti svijet ovako.
05:37
India was not always like this level.
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Indija nije uvijek bila na ovom nivou.
05:39
Actually if we go back into the historical record,
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Ako se vratimo u povijest,
05:41
there was a time hundreds of years ago
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jedno je vrijeme, prije nekoliko stotina godina,
05:43
when the income per person in India and China
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kad je prihod po osobi u Indiji i Kini
05:45
was even above that of Europe.
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bio čak iznad onoga u Europi.
05:47
But 1850 had already been many, many years of foreign domination,
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Ali 1850. imamo već mnogo mnogo godina strane dominacije,
05:51
and India had been de-industrialized.
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i Indija je bila deindustrijalizirana.
05:54
And you can see that the countries who were growing
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Zemlje koje su gospodarski rasle
05:56
their economy was United States and United Kingdom.
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bile su Sjedinjene Države i Velika Britanija.
05:58
And they were also, by the end of the century, getting healthy,
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One su također, pred kraj stoljeća, postajale sve zdravije
06:01
and Japan was starting to catch up.
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i Japan ih je počeo sustizati.
06:03
India was trying down here.
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Indija je pokušavala ovdje dolje.
06:05
Can you see how it starts to move there?
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Vidite li kako se počinje micati tamo?
06:07
But really, really natural sovereignty was good for Japan.
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Nacionalni suverenitet je bio jako dobar za Japan.
06:11
And Japan is trying to move up there.
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I Japan se pokušava pomaknuti tamo gore.
06:13
And it's the new century now. Health is getting better,
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I došlo je novo stoljeće. Zdravstvo se popravilo,
06:15
United Kingdom, United States.
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Velika Britanija, SAD,
06:17
But careful now -- we are approaching the First World War.
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ali pazite, približava se Prvi svjetski rat.
06:20
And the First World War, you know,
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U Prvom svjetskom ratu, znate
06:22
we'll see a lot of deaths and economical problems here.
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vidjet ćemo mnogo smrti i gospodarskih problema.
06:26
United Kingdom is going down.
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Velika Britanija pada dolje
06:28
And now comes the Spanish flu also.
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Dolazi i španjolska gripa.
06:30
And then after the First World War, they continue up.
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Nakon Prvog svjetskog rata, one nastavljaju put prema gore.
06:33
Still under foreign domination, and without sovereignty,
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Još uvijek pod stranom dominacijom, bez suvereniteta,
06:36
India and China are down in the corner.
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Indija i Kina su dolje u kutu.
06:38
Not much has happened.
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Nije se puno toga promijenilo.
06:40
They have grown their population but not much more.
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Populacija im je narasla, ali to je sve.
06:42
In the 1930's now, you can see
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U 1930-tima, možete vidjeti
06:44
that Japan is going to a period of war,
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da Japan prolazi kroz period rata
06:47
with lower life expectancy.
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s nižim očekivanim trajanjem života.
06:49
And the Second World War was really a terrible event,
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Drugi svjetski rat je zaista tragičan događaj,
06:51
also economically for Japan.
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također za gospodarstvo Japana.
06:53
But they did recover quite fast afterwards.
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Ali oni su se vrlo brzo oporavili nakon toga.
06:55
And we are moving into the new world.
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I krećemo u novi svijet.
06:57
In 1947 India finally
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1947. Indija napokon
07:00
gained its independence.
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postaje neovisna.
07:02
And they could raise the Indian flag and become a sovereign nation,
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Mogli su izvjesiti indijsku zastavu i postali suverena nacija,
07:06
but in very big difficulties down there.
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ali su u vrlo velikim teškoćama tamo dolje.
07:09
(Applause)
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(pljesak)
07:12
In 1949 we saw the emergence of the modern China
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1949. vidjeli smo početke moderne Kine
07:16
in a way which surprised the world.
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na način koji je iznenadio svijet.
07:18
And what happened?
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I što se dogodilo?
07:20
What happens in the after independence?
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Što se događa nakon neovisnosti?
07:22
You can see that the health started to improve.
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Vidite da se zdravlje počelo popravljati.
07:24
Children started to go to school.
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Djeca su krenula u školu.
07:26
Health services were provided.
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Pružena je zdravstvena skrb.
07:28
This is the Great Leap Forward, when China fell down.
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To je bilo veliki korak naprijed, a onda je Kina pala.
07:32
It was central planning by Mao Tse Tung.
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To je centralno plansko gospodarstvo Mao Tse Tunga.
07:34
China recovered. Then they said,
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Zatim se Kina oporavila. Rekli su,
07:36
"Nevermore, stupid central planning."
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"Nikada više, glupo centralno planiranje."
07:38
But they went up here, and India was trying to follow.
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I otišli su tu gore, a Indija je nastojala slijediti.
07:41
And they were catching up indeed.
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I zaista su ih dostizali.
07:43
And both countries had the better health, but still
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Obje zemlje su imale bolje zdravstvo,
07:45
a very low economy.
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ali još uvijek loše gospodarstvo.
07:47
And we came to 1978, and Mao Tse Tung died,
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I dolazimo do 1978., Mao Tse Tung je umro,
07:50
and a new guy turned up from the left.
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i dolazi novi tip s lijeva.
07:53
And it was Deng Xiaoping coming out here.
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Dolazi Deng Xiaoping.
07:56
And he said, "Doesn't matter
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On kaže, "Nema veze
07:58
if a cat is white or black,
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je li mačka bijela ili crna,
08:00
as long as it catches mice."
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sve dok hvata miševe."
08:02
Because catching mice
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Jer hvatanje miševa
08:04
is what the two cats wanted to do.
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je ono što su dvije mačke htjele raditi.
08:07
And you can see the two cats being here,
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I možete vidjeti dvije mačke ovdje,
08:10
China and India, wanting to catch the mices over there, you know.
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Kina i Indija, kako žele uloviti miševe tamo.
08:13
And they decided to go not only for health and education,
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Odlučile su ići ne samo na zdravstvo i edukaciju,
08:16
but also starting to grow their economy.
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nego i gospodarski rast.
08:18
And the market reformer was successful there.
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Reformator tržišta bio je ovdje uspješan.
08:20
In '92 India follows with a market reform.
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1992. Indija slijedi s reformom tržišta.
08:23
And they go quite closely together,
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I one putuju vrlo blizu zajedno,
08:25
and you can see that the similarity with India and China,
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i vidi se kako je sličnost između Indije i Kine,
08:27
in many ways, are greater than the differences with them.
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na više načina, veća od razlika među njima.
08:30
And here they march on. And will they catch up?
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I one marširaju naprijed. Hoće li dostići?
08:32
This is the big question today.
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To je veliko pitanje sad.
08:34
There they are today.
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Ovdje su one danas.
08:36
Now what does it mean that the --
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To znači da je --
08:38
(Applause)
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(pljesak)
08:41
the averages there -- this is the average of China.
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prosjek , ovo je prosjek Kine.
08:44
If I would split China, look here,
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Ako bih podijelio Kinu, pogledajte,
08:46
Shanghai has already catched up.
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Shanghai je već dostigao.
08:49
Shanghai is already there.
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Shanghai je već tamo.
08:51
And it's healthier than the United States.
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I zdraviji je nego Sjedinjene Države.
08:55
But on the other hand, Guizhou, one of the poorest
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No, s druge strane, Guizhou, jedna od
08:58
inland provinces of China, is there.
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najsiromašnijih provincija Kine, je tamo.
09:01
And if I split Guizhou into urban and rural,
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A ako podijelim Guizhou u urbani i ruralni,
09:05
the rural part of Guizhou goes down there.
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ruralni dio ide tamo dolje.
09:08
You see this enormous inequity in China,
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Vidite ogromne razlike unutar Kine,
09:11
in the midst of fast economic growth.
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usred brzog gospodarskog rasta.
09:13
And if I would also look at India,
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A ako pogledam Indiju,
09:15
you have another type of inequity, actually, in India.
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tu imate drugu vrstu nejednakosti.
09:18
The geographical, macro-geographical difference is not so big.
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Geografske, makrogeografska razlika nije velika.
09:23
Uttar Pradesh, the biggest of the states here,
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Uttar Pradesh, najveća pokrajina,
09:25
is poorer and has a lower health than the rest of India.
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siromašnija je i ima slabije zdravlje od ostatka Indije.
09:28
Kerala is flying on top there,
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Kerala leti tamo na vrhu,
09:31
matching United States in health,
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dostigavši Sjedinjene Države po zdravstvu,
09:33
but not in economy.
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ali ne i u gospodarstvu.
09:35
And here, Maharashtra, with Mumbai,
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A ovdje, Maharashtra, s Mumbaiem,
09:37
is forging forward.
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brza naprijed.
09:39
Now in India, the big inequities are within the state,
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U Indiji su, dakle, velike nejednakosti u unutar pokrajine,
09:42
rather than between the states.
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a ne između pokrajina.
09:44
And that is not a bad thing, in itself.
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A to nije samo po sebi loše.
09:47
If you have a lot inequity, macro-geographical inequities
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Ako imate puno nejednakosti, makrogeografske nejednakosti
09:51
can be more difficult in the long term to deal with,
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dugoročno su veći problem
09:54
than if it is in the same area where you have a growth center
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nego nedjednakosti u istom području gdje imate centar rasta
09:57
relatively close to where poor people are living.
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blizu mjesta gdje žive siromašni.
10:00
No, there is one more inequity. Look there, United States.
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No, tu je još jedna nejednakost. Pogledajte ovdje, Sjedinjene Države.
10:03
(Laughter)
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(smijeh)
10:04
Oh, they broke my frame.
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Oh, probile su moj okvir.
10:06
Washington, D.C. went out here.
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Washington D.C. se probio tamo.
10:09
My friends at Gapminder wanted me to show this
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Moji prijatelji u Gapminderu su htjeli da ovo pokažem
10:12
because there is a new leader in Washington
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jer sada je novi lider u Washingtonu
10:14
who is really concerned about the health system.
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koji je zaista zabrinut za zdravstvo.
10:16
And I can understand him, because Washington, D.C.
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Mogu ga razumjeti, jer je Washinton D.C.
10:19
is so rich over there
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silno bogat
10:22
but they are not as healthy as Kerala.
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ali ne tako zdrav kao Kerala.
10:24
It's quite interesting, isn't it?
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Zanimljivo, zar ne?
10:26
(Applause)
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(pljesak)
10:31
I can see a business opportunity for Kerala,
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Vidim poslovnu priliku za Keralu,
10:34
helping fix the health system in the United States.
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da pomognu popraviti zdravstvo u Sjedinjenim Državama.
10:36
(Laughter)
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(smijeh)
10:38
(Applause)
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(pljesak)
10:40
Now here we have the whole world. You have the legend down there.
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Ovdje sad imamo cijeli svijet. Vidite legendu tamo dolje.
10:43
And when you see the two giant cats here, pushing forward,
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I kada vidite dvije divovske mačke ovdje, kako idu naprijed,
10:47
you see that in between them
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vidite da su između njih
10:49
and ahead of them,
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i pred njima,
10:51
is the whole emerging economies of the world,
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cijela nova gospodarstva svijeta,
10:53
which Thomas Friedman so correctly called the "flat world."
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koja je Thomas Friedman ispravno zvao "ravni svijet".
10:57
You can see that in health and education,
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Vidite da u zdravstvu i edukaciji
10:59
a large part of the world population is putting forward,
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velik dio svijeta ide naprijed,
11:02
but in Africa, and other parts,
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ali u Africi, i drugim mjestima,
11:04
as in rural Guizhou in China,
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kao u ruralnom Guizhou u Kini,
11:06
there is still people with low health and very low economy.
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još žive ljudi s lošim zdravstvom i vrlo slabim gospodarstvom.
11:09
We have an enormous disparity in the world.
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Imamo ogromne nejednakosti u svijetu.
11:11
But most of the world in the middle are pushing forwards very fast.
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Ali većina svijeta u sredini ide naprijed vrlo brzo.
11:16
Now, back to my projections.
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Vratimo se mojim predviđanjima.
11:18
When will it catch up? I have to go back to very conventional graph.
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Kada će nas sustići? Moram se vratiti konvencionalnom prikazu.
11:23
I will show income per person on this axis instead,
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Pokazat ću prihod po osobi na ovoj osi (y),
11:26
poor down here, rich up there.
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siromašni tu dolje, bogati tamo gore.
11:28
And then time here, from 1858
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I onda vrijeme, od 1858.
11:30
I start the world.
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Pokrećem svijet.
11:32
And we shall see what will happen with these countries.
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Vidjet ćemo što se događa s ovim zemljama.
11:35
You see, China under foreign domination
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Vidite, u Kini se pod stranom dominacijom
11:38
actually lowered their income and came down to the Indian level here.
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prihod zapravo smanjio i završio dolje na razini Indije.
11:41
Whereas U.K. and United States is getting richer and richer.
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Za to vrijeme Velika Britanija i SAD su postajale bogatije i bogatije.
11:45
And after Second World War, United States is richer than U.K.
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Nakon Drugog svjetskog rata, SAD su bogatije nego Velika Britanija.
11:48
But independence is coming here.
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Ali dolazi neovisnost-
11:50
Growth is starting, economic reform.
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Počinje rast, gospodarska reforma.
11:52
Growth is faster, and with projection from IMF
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Rast je brži i po projekciji od IMF-a
11:55
you can see where you expect them to be in 2014.
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vidite gdje ih se očekuje 2014.
11:59
Now, the question is, "When will the catch up take place?"
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No, pitanje je, "Kad će nas sustići?"
12:04
Look at, look at the United States.
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Pogledajte Sjedinjene Države.
12:06
Can you see the bubble?
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Vidite li balončić?
12:08
The bubbles, not my bubbles,
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Balončići, ne ovi moji,
12:10
but the financial bubbles.
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nego financijski balončići.
12:12
That's the dot com bubble. This is the Lehman Brothers doorstep there.
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Ovo je "dot com" balončić. Ovo je Lehman Brothers.
12:17
You see it came down there.
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Vidite kako je pao ovdje.
12:19
And it seems this is another rock coming down there, you know.
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Izgleda da još jedan pada ovdje, znate.
12:24
So they doesn't seem to go this way, these countries.
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Ne izgleda da te zemlje idu ovim putem.
12:27
They seem to go in a more humble growth way, you know.
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Izgleda da rastu puno skromnijom brzinom.
12:30
And people interested in growth
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A ljudi zainteresirani za rast
12:32
are turning their eyes towards Asia.
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okreću se prema Aziji.
12:35
I can compare to Japan. This is Japan coming up.
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Mogu usporediti s Japanom. Ovo je Japan kako se uzdiže.
12:38
You see, Japan did it like that.
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Vidite, Japan je to učinio ovako.
12:40
We add Japan to it.
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Dodajemo Japan.
12:42
And there is no doubt that fast catch up
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Nema sumnje da je moguće
12:45
can take place.
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brzo sustizanje.
12:47
Can you see here what Japan did?
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Vidite li što je Japan napravio?
12:49
Japan did it like this, until full catch up,
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Japan je to učinio ovako, dok nije u potpunosti sustigao,
12:51
and then they follow with the other high-income economies.
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i nakon toga slijedi ostale bogate zemlje.
12:55
But the real projections for those ones,
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No pravu procjenu za njih
12:58
I would like to give it like this.
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bih napravio ovako.
13:03
Can be worse, can be better.
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Može biti gore, može biti bolje.
13:05
It's always difficult to predict, especially about the future.
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Nije lako predviđati, naročito budućnost.
13:09
Now, a historian tells me it's even more difficult to predict about the past.
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Jedan povjesničar mi je rekao da je još teže predviđati prošlost.
13:12
(Laughter)
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(smijeh)
13:14
I think I'm in a difficult position here.
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Mislim da sam u teškom položaju ovdje.
13:17
Inequalities in China and India
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Nejednakosti u Kini i Indiji
13:19
I consider really the big obstacle
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smatram velikom preprekom
13:23
because to bring the entire population into growth and prosperity
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jer rast i blagostanje cijele populacije
13:27
is what will create a domestic market,
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ono je što stvara domaće tržište,
13:29
what will avoid social instability,
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što stvara stabilnost u društvu,
13:32
and which will make use of the entire capacity
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i može iskoristiti
13:35
of the population.
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cijeli kapacitet populacije.
13:37
So, social investments in health, education and infrastructure,
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Dakle, socijalne investicije u zdravstvo, edukaciju i infrastrukturu,
13:41
and electricity is really what is needed in India and China.
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struju, ono je što treba Indiji i Kini.
13:47
You know the climate. We have great international experts
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Klima. Imamo sjajne priznate stručnjake u Indiji
13:50
within India telling us that the climate is changing,
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koji nam govore da se klima mijenja,
13:53
and actions has to be taken,
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i da se nešto mora poduzeti,
13:55
otherwise China and India would be the countries
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inače će Kina i Indija biti zemlje
13:58
most to suffer from climate change.
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koje će najviše patiti zbog promjene klime.
14:00
And I consider India and China the best partners in the world
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Smatram da su Indija i Kina najbolji partneri na svijetu
14:03
in a good global climate policy.
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za dobru globalnu klimatsku politiku.
14:06
But they ain't going to pay
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Ali oni neće platiti za probleme
14:08
for what others, who have more money,
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koje su ostali, koji imaju više novca, stvorili,
14:10
have largely created, and I can agree on that.
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i ja se mogu s tim složiti.
14:13
But what I'm really worried about is war.
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Ali ono što me zaista brine je rat.
14:16
Will the former rich countries really accept
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Hoće li bivše bogate zemlje zaista prihvatiti
14:18
a completely changed world economy,
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potpuno izmjenjeno svjetsko gospodarstvo
14:21
and a shift of power away from where it has been
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i pomicanje moći izvan centra gdje je bila
14:24
the last 50 to 100 to 150 years,
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u zadnjih 50 do 100 do 150 godina,
14:26
back to Asia?
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natrag u Aziju?
14:28
And will Asia be able to handle that
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Hoće li Azija biti u stanju
14:30
new position of being in charge
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nositi se s novom pozicijom
14:32
of being the most mighty, and the governors of the world?
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najmoćnijega, i vladara svijeta?
14:35
So, always avoid war,
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Izbjegavajmo rat,
14:37
because that always pushes human beings backward.
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jer to uvijek gurne ljudsko društvo unazad.
14:40
Now if these inequalities, climate and war can be avoided,
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Ako se ove nejednakosti, klima i rat mogu izbjeći,
14:44
get ready for a world in equity,
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spremite se za svijet u jednakosti.
14:47
because this is what seems to be happening.
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Jer čini se da se to događa.
14:50
And that vision that I got as a young student,
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I vizija koju sam imao kao mladi student,
14:52
1972, that Indians can be much better than Swedes,
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1972, da su Indijci puno bolji od Šveđana,
14:58
is just about to happen.
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uskoro će se obistiniti.
15:00
And it will happen precisely
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I to će se dogoditi točno
15:03
the year 2048
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godine 2048
15:07
in the later part of the summer, in July,
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u drugom dijelu ljeta, u srpnju,
15:10
more precisely, the 27th of July.
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preciznije, 27. srpnja.
15:13
(Applause)
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(pljesak)
15:21
The 27th of July, 2048
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27. srpnja 2048
15:25
is my 100th birthday.
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je moj 100-ti rođendan.
15:27
(Laughter)
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(smijeh)
15:29
And I expect to speak
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Očekujem da ću govoriti
15:31
in the first session of the 39th TED India.
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u prvom dijelu 39.-tog TEDIndia.
15:35
Get your bookings in time. Thank you very much.
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Napravite rezervacije na vrijeme. Hvala puno.
15:38
(Applause)
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(pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionaryIn Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus.
Why you should listen
Even the most worldly and well-traveled among us have had their perspectives shifted by Hans Rosling. A professor of global health at Sweden's Karolinska Institute, his work focused on dispelling common myths about the so-called developing world, which (as he pointed out) is no longer worlds away from the West. In fact, most of the Third World is on the same trajectory toward health and prosperity, and many countries are moving twice as fast as the west did.
What set Rosling apart wasn't just his apt observations of broad social and economic trends, but the stunning way he presented them. Guaranteed: You've never seen data presented like this. A presentation that tracks global health and poverty trends should be, in a word: boring. But in Rosling's hands, data sings. Trends come to life. And the big picture — usually hazy at best — snaps into sharp focus.
Rosling's presentations were grounded in solid statistics (often drawn from United Nations and World Bank data), illustrated by the visualization software he developed. The animations transform development statistics into moving bubbles and flowing curves that make global trends clear, intuitive and even playful. During his legendary presentations, Rosling took this one step farther, narrating the animations with a sportscaster's flair.
Rosling developed the breakthrough software behind his visualizations through his nonprofit Gapminder, founded with his son and daughter-in-law. The free software — which can be loaded with any data — was purchased by Google in March 2007. (Rosling met the Google founders at TED.)
Rosling began his wide-ranging career as a physician, spending many years in rural Africa tracking a rare paralytic disease (which he named konzo) and discovering its cause: hunger and badly processed cassava. He co-founded Médecins sans Frontièrs (Doctors without Borders) Sweden, wrote a textbook on global health, and as a professor at the Karolinska Institut in Stockholm initiated key international research collaborations. He's also personally argued with many heads of state, including Fidel Castro.
Hans Rosling passed away in February 2017. He is greatly missed.
Hans Rosling | Speaker | TED.com