TEDxAmsterdam
Kevin Kelly: Technology's epic story
凱文·凱利 談 “科技要的是什麼?”
Filmed:
Readability: 3.8
655,376 views
這具有廣度而且讓人重新思考科技的演講是從 TEDx 阿姆斯特丹中選出, 凱文·凱利 引導大家檢視科技對我們生命的意義 -- 從個人層次的影響推論到宇宙中的定位.
Kevin Kelly - Digital visionary
There may be no one better to contemplate the meaning of cultural change than Kevin Kelly, whose life story reads like a treatise on the value and impacts of technology. Full bio
There may be no one better to contemplate the meaning of cultural change than Kevin Kelly, whose life story reads like a treatise on the value and impacts of technology. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
I want to talk about my investigations
0
0
3000
我想談談我的一些研究
00:18
into what technology means in our lives --
1
3000
5000
有關科技對我們生活的意義
00:23
not just our immediate life, but in the cosmic sense,
2
8000
3000
不光是狹義上我們的生活，而是廣義上的宇宙觀
00:26
in the kind of long history of the world
3
11000
3000
我們世界觀裡的時間
00:29
and our place in the world:
4
14000
3000
跟世界觀裡的空間
00:32
What is this stuff?
5
17000
2000
這是什麼呢?
00:34
What is the significance?
6
19000
2000
對我們重要嗎?
00:36
And so, I want to kind of go through my
7
21000
2000
我想先用一些小故事
00:38
little story of what I found out.
8
23000
2000
來談我所發現的
00:40
And one of the first things that I started to investigate was
9
25000
2000
一開始引起我研究興趣的
00:42
the history of the name of technology.
10
27000
4000
是 "科技" 這一名稱的來源
00:46
And in the United States there is a State of the Union address
11
31000
2000
美國從1790年以後依照慣例
00:48
given by every president since 1790.
12
33000
3000
每位總統會對國會發表施政報告
00:51
And each one of those is really kind of
13
36000
3000
每一次演說
00:54
summing up the most important things
14
39000
2000
都會總結當時對美國
00:56
for the United States at that time.
15
41000
2000
最重要的事情
00:58
If you search for the word "technology,"
16
43000
2000
如果你去追溯 "科技" 這個詞
01:00
it was not used until 1952.
17
45000
4000
直到1952年才開始出現
01:04
So, technology was sort of absent
18
49000
2000
照這麼看來1952年以前
01:06
from everybody's thinking until 1952, which happened to be the year of my birth.
19
51000
3000
還沒有人想到科技， 而我剛好是出生在那一年
01:09
And obviously, technology
20
54000
3000
但很明顯的， 科技
01:12
had existed before then, but we weren't aware of it,
21
57000
2000
早在那以前就存在了， 只是我們沒有察覺而已。
01:14
and so it was sort of an awakening
22
59000
2000
那時就像是當頭棒喝
01:16
of this force in our life.
23
61000
3000
突然發覺我們生活中的這股力量。
01:19
I actually did research to find out the first
24
64000
2000
我實際去研究了
01:21
use of the word "technology."
25
66000
2000
是誰第一個使用了 "科技" 這個詞
01:23
It was in 1829,
26
68000
2000
那是在 1829 年的時候
01:25
and it was invented by a guy who was starting a curriculum --
27
70000
3000
一個傢伙在編教程的時候發明的
01:28
a course, bringing together all the kinds
28
73000
2000
這個課程是要把不同種類的
01:30
of arts and crafts, and industry --
29
75000
3000
藝術、手工藝與工業搞在一起。
01:33
and he called it "Technology."
30
78000
2000
他把這叫做科技
01:35
And that's the very first use of the word.
31
80000
2000
那就是這個名詞的起源
01:37
So, what is this stuff
32
82000
2000
那這個
01:39
that we're all consumed by,
33
84000
3000
我們每天消費的
01:42
and bothered by?
34
87000
3000
為它煩心的東西是什麼?
01:45
Alan Kay calls it, "Technology is anything
35
90000
2000
艾倫 凱 說 "凡是我們出生後
01:47
that was invented after you were born."
36
92000
2000
才發明的東西， 都是科技"
01:49
(Laughter)
37
94000
1000
(笑聲)
01:50
Which is sort of the idea that we normally have about what technology is:
38
95000
4000
這就是我們對科技的刻板印象
01:54
It's all that new stuff.
39
99000
2000
就是那些“新玩意”
01:56
It's not roads, or penicillin,
40
101000
2000
不是馬路或盤尼西林
01:58
or factory tires; it's the new stuff.
41
103000
4000
或量產的輪胎 要“新”玩意才算。
02:02
My friend Danny Hillis says kind of a similar one,
42
107000
2000
我的朋友 丹尼 西里斯 提出一個類似的說法
02:04
he says, "Technology is anything that doesn't work yet."
43
109000
3000
他說 "科技就是還不能實用的."
02:07
(Laughter)
44
112000
1000
(笑聲)
02:08
Which is, again, a sense that it's all new.
45
113000
2000
對啊, 意思就是全新的
02:10
But we know that it's just not new.
46
115000
2000
但是我們知道科技不全是是新的
02:12
It actually goes way back, and what I want to suggest
47
117000
2000
我建議大家 從時間軸上往前推
02:14
is it goes a long way back.
48
119000
4000
推到很早很早以前。
02:18
So, another way to think about technology, what it means,
49
123000
2000
另一個思考科技意義的辦法是
02:20
is to imagine a world without technology.
50
125000
2000
去想像沒有科技的世界。
02:22
If we were to eliminate every single bit of technology in the world today --
51
127000
3000
假設我們把今日世界的科技一一去掉
02:25
and I mean everything,
52
130000
2000
真的完全去除乾淨
02:27
from blades to scrapers to cloth --
53
132000
4000
從刀片 掃把 到衣服
02:31
we as a species would not live very long.
54
136000
3000
我們這個物種將無法存活太久。
02:34
We would die by the billions, and very quickly:
55
139000
3000
幾十億的人口將會快速的死去
02:37
The wolves would get us, we would be defenseless,
56
142000
3000
狼會吃掉亳無保護的我們
02:40
we would be unable to grow enough food, or find enough food.
57
145000
3000
我們將無法栽種或找到足夠的食物
02:43
Even the hunter-gatherers used some elementary tools.
58
148000
4000
獵人們至少也用了一些工具吧。
02:47
And so, they had minimal technology,
59
152000
2000
所以他們有了最起碼的科技
02:49
but they had some technology.
60
154000
2000
但他們的科技不止如此
02:51
And if we study those hunter-gatherer tribes
61
156000
3000
如果我們研究形成部落的這些獵人
02:54
and the Neanderthal, which are very similar to early man,
62
159000
4000
像是最早發現的 尼安德塔人
02:58
we find out a very curious thing about this world without technology,
63
163000
3000
在無科技世界裡我們找到令人好奇的東西
03:01
and this is a kind of a curve of their average age.
64
166000
3000
這是他們平均壽命的曲線
03:04
There are no Neanderthal fossils that are older than 40 years old
65
169000
3000
在尼安德塔人的骨骸中
03:07
that we've ever found,
66
172000
2000
沒有超過40歲的
03:09
and the average age of most of these
67
174000
2000
這些獵人部落的年齡大部份
03:11
hunter-gatherer tribes is 20 to 30.
68
176000
3000
是在 20 到 30 之間
03:14
There are very few young infants
69
179000
3000
小嬰孩是很罕見的
03:17
because they die -- high mortality rate -- and there's very few old people.
70
182000
3000
因為嬰兒死亡率很高。老人也不多見
03:20
And so the profile is sort of for your average San Francisco neighborhood:
71
185000
4000
所以總體來說會像是舊金山附近的人口結構
03:24
a lot of young people.
72
189000
2000
一大堆年青人
03:26
And if you go there, you say, "Hey, everybody's really healthy."
73
191000
2000
如果你去那裡你會說 "哇, 每個人都很健康"
03:28
Well, that's because they're all young.
74
193000
2000
那是因為他們都很年青啊
03:30
And the same thing with the hunter-gatherer tribes and early man
75
195000
2000
同樣的在原始人類的獵人部落裡
03:32
is that you didn't live beyond the age of 30.
76
197000
3000
人活不過 30 歲
03:35
So, it was a world without grandparents.
77
200000
2000
所以那是沒有祖父母的世界。
03:37
And grandparents are very important,
78
202000
2000
祖父母是很重要的
03:39
because they are the transmitter of cultural evolution and information.
79
204000
4000
因為他們是文化演進與資訊的轉化器
03:43
Imagine a world and basically everybody was 20 to 30 years old.
80
208000
3000
想像一下每個人都只有20到30歲的世界
03:46
How much learning can you do?
81
211000
2000
他們能學習到怎樣的程度?
03:48
You can't do very much learning in your own life,
82
213000
2000
你在自己的生命中真的學不到很多
03:50
it's so short,
83
215000
2000
因為那太短暫了
03:52
and there's nobody to pass on what you do learn.
84
217000
2000
而且你所學的又傳不下去。
03:54
So, that's one aspect.
85
219000
3000
這只是一個觀點
03:57
It was a very short life. But at the same time
86
222000
2000
不只人生苦短 同時
03:59
anthropologists know
87
224000
3000
人類學家們知道
04:02
that most hunter-gatherer tribes of the world,
88
227000
2000
在原始獵人聚集部落的世界
04:04
with that very little technology, actually did not spend
89
229000
2000
用的科技不多， 他們並沒有花
04:06
a very long time gathering the food that they needed:
90
231000
3000
很長的時間蒐集維生的食物
04:09
three to six hours a day.
91
234000
2000
一天大概 3 到 6 小時。
04:11
Some anthropologists call that the original affluent society.
92
236000
3000
有些人類學家稱之為原初豐裕社會
04:14
Because they had banker hours basically.
93
239000
3000
因為他們那時候已經有了 "半天班"
04:17
So, it was possible to get enough food.
94
242000
3000
而且在當時是有可能得到足夠食物的。
04:20
But when the scarcity came
95
245000
2000
不過當食物短缺時
04:22
when the highs and lows and the droughts came,
96
247000
2000
像是多雨或乾旱來臨時
04:24
then people went into starvation.
97
249000
3000
人們還是會餓死。
04:27
And that's why they didn't live very long.
98
252000
2000
這就是為什麼他們活不長。
04:29
So, what technology brought,
99
254000
2000
所以科技帶來的小工具
04:31
through the very simple tools like these stone tools here --
100
256000
5000
像這裡這些石器工具
04:36
even something as small as this --
101
261000
2000
即使是這麼小的一個
04:38
the early bands of humans were actually able
102
263000
2000
就可以讓原始人類有能力可以
04:40
to eliminate to extinction
103
265000
3000
在進化上超越並消滅
04:43
about 250 megafauna animals
104
268000
4000
一萬年前在北美洲的
04:47
in North America when they first arrived 10,000 years ago.
105
272000
4000
大約250種的巨型動物群。
04:51
So, long before the industrial age
106
276000
2000
所以遠早於工業時代
04:53
we've been affecting the planet on a global scale,
107
278000
3000
我們已經對這個星球有了全面性的影響
04:56
with just a small amount of technology.
108
281000
2000
那只是用了一點小科技。
04:58
The other thing that the early man invented was fire.
109
283000
3000
另一個原始人的發明是 火。
05:01
And fire was used to clear out, and again,
110
286000
2000
火最早是用來清除草地
05:03
affected the ecology of grass and whole continents,
111
288000
4000
而這影響到草原生態與整個大陸
05:07
and was used in cooking.
112
292000
3000
火並且用來烹煮食物
05:10
It enabled us to actually eat all kinds of things.
113
295000
2000
有了火我們可以無所不吃
05:12
It was sort of, in a certain sense, in a McLuhan sense,
114
297000
2000
這就好像 麥克魯漢 所謂的
05:14
an external stomach,
115
299000
3000
“體外的胃”
05:17
in the sense that it was cooking food that we could not eat otherwise.
116
302000
3000
意思是沒煮過的我們也消化不了
05:20
And if we don't have fire, we actually could not live.
117
305000
3000
如果沒有火的話我們很難活下去
05:23
Our bodies have adapted to these new diets.
118
308000
3000
我們的身體早已調適到這些新的飲食
05:26
Our bodies have changed in the last 10,000 years.
119
311000
3000
過去一萬年以來我們的身體已經改變。
05:29
So, with that little bit of technology,
120
314000
3000
看, 這小小的一點科技
05:32
humans went from a small band of 10,000 or so --
121
317000
2000
讓人類從約一萬人左右的一小群
05:34
the same number as Neanderthals everywhere --
122
319000
2000
約略是各地的原始人總數
05:36
and we suddenly exploded. With the invention of language
123
321000
2000
然後隨著語言的發明
05:38
around 50,000 years ago,
124
323000
2000
大約五萬年以前
05:40
the number of humans exploded,
125
325000
2000
人口突然暴增
05:42
and very quickly became the dominant species on the planet.
126
327000
3000
很快的人類成為稱霸地球的生物
05:45
And they migrated into the rest of the world at two kilometers per year
127
330000
4000
其擴展版圖的速度是每年兩公里
05:49
until, within several tens of thousands of years,
128
334000
3000
直到最近幾萬年
05:52
we occupied every single watershed on the planet
129
337000
2000
人已經漫佈到全球各地
05:54
and became the most dominant species,
130
339000
2000
成為獨霸的生物種類
05:56
with a very small amount of technology.
131
341000
2000
這都是拜小小的科技所賜
05:58
And even at that time, with the introduction of agriculture,
132
343000
3000
甚至在八千到一萬年前
06:01
8,000, 10,000 years ago
133
346000
2000
農業才剛發明的時候
06:03
we started to see climate change.
134
348000
2000
氣候變遷開始出現了。
06:05
So, climate change is not a new thing.
135
350000
2000
氣候變遷並不是新東西
06:07
What's new is just the degree of it. Even during
136
352000
2000
不一樣的只是程度上的差別。
06:09
the agricultural age there was climate change.
137
354000
3000
在農業時期就有氣候變遷了。
06:12
And so, already small amounts of technology
138
357000
2000
同樣極少量的科技
06:14
were transforming the world.
139
359000
2000
也轉化了整個世界。
06:16
And what this means, and where I'm going, is that
140
361000
2000
我想要表達的重點是
06:18
technology has become the most powerful force in the world.
141
363000
4000
科技己經變成世界上最強大的力量。
06:22
All the things that we see today
142
367000
2000
我們今天看到的所有東西
06:24
that are changing our lives, we can always trace back
143
369000
2000
只要能改變我們生活方式的
06:26
to the introduction of some new technology.
144
371000
2000
都可以回溯到某些科技的發明。
06:28
So, it's a force that is the most powerful force
145
373000
4000
這就是力量 一種從這個地球上
06:32
that has been unleashed on this planet,
146
377000
2000
曾爆發的最強大力量。
06:34
and in such a degree that I think
147
379000
3000
我認為在某種程度上
06:37
that it's become our -- who we are.
148
382000
5000
這是因為我們的本質 "人性"
06:42
In fact, our humanity, and everything that we think about ourselves
149
387000
3000
包括我們認為有關自己的一切
06:45
is something that we've invented.
150
390000
2000
實際上是我們發明的。
06:47
So, we've invented ourselves. Of all the animals that we have domesticated,
151
392000
2000
我們創造了我們自己! 所有我們餋養
06:49
the most important animal that we've domesticated
152
394000
2000
的動物裡最重要的
06:51
has been us. Okay?
153
396000
3000
就是我們 對吧?
06:54
So, humanity is our greatest invention.
154
399000
3000
因此人性是我們最偉大的發明
06:57
But of course we're not done yet.
155
402000
2000
當然這件事還沒完呢
06:59
We're still inventing, and this is what technology is allowing us to do --
156
404000
3000
科技讓我們還持續的發明著
07:02
it's continually to reinvent ourselves.
157
407000
3000
這是不斷的重新創造我們自己
07:05
It's a very, very strong force.
158
410000
2000
是一股巨大無比的力量。
07:07
I call this entire thing -- us humans as our technology,
159
412000
3000
我把這一整個事情 包括人與科技
07:10
everything that we've made, gadgets in our lives --
160
415000
3000
所有我們創造的 生活中的小東西
07:13
we call that the technium. That's this world.
161
418000
2000
統稱為科技育成 (Technium)，也就是這世界。
07:15
My working definition of technology
162
420000
2000
我對科技的新定義是
07:17
is "anything useful that a human mind makes."
163
422000
3000
任何人類所製造出的有用東西
07:20
It's not just hammers and gadgets, like laptops.
164
425000
2000
不只是鐵鎚、筆電或酷炫的３Ｃ產品
07:22
But it's also law. And of course cities are ways to make
165
427000
5000
還包括法律。 當然 "城市" 也讓
07:27
things more useful to us.
166
432000
2000
很多東西變得有用。
07:29
While this is something that comes from our mind,
167
434000
2000
這些從我們的心念而來的
07:31
it also has its roots deeply
168
436000
3000
其根源卻同樣來自
07:34
into the cosmos.
169
439000
2000
宇宙。
07:36
It goes back. The origins and roots of technology
170
441000
2000
回到科技的最初起源
07:38
go back to the Big Bang,
171
443000
2000
再回到大爆炸
07:40
in this way, in that they are part of this
172
445000
2000
從這一路看 這些心念
07:42
self-organizing thread
173
447000
2000
是自我形成的次序
07:44
that starts at the Big Bang
174
449000
2000
然後從大爆炸開始
07:46
and goes through galaxies and stars,
175
451000
3000
經過不同的星系與無數的星星
07:49
into life, into us.
176
454000
2000
來到我們的生命中。
07:51
And the three major phases of the early universe
177
456000
2000
在宇宙形成早期的三個主要階段
07:53
was energy, when the dominant force was energy;
178
458000
2000
一開始是能量 主導力量是 "能量"。
07:55
then it became, the dominant force, as it cooled, became matter;
179
460000
3000
然後冷卻以後 主導力量變成 "物質"
07:58
and then, with the invention of life, four billion years ago,
180
463000
4000
再來 生命起源 在40億年前
08:02
the dominant force in our neighborhood became information.
181
467000
2000
我們週遭的主導力量變成 "資訊"。
08:04
That's what life is: It's an information process
182
469000
2000
這就是生命。 它是資訊重組與
08:06
that was restructuring and making new order.
183
471000
3000
建立新秩序的過程。
08:09
So, those energy, matter Einstein show
184
474000
3000
所以在愛因斯坦發現 質M 與 能E
08:12
were equivalent, and now new sciences
185
477000
3000
是相同的 而現在新的
08:15
of quantum computing show that entropy
186
480000
2000
量子計算機裡的不可控制能量(熵)
08:17
and information and matter and energy
187
482000
3000
跟資訊 跟物質 跟能量
08:20
are all interrelated, so it's one long continuum.
188
485000
4000
所以這一長串的 都是互相關聯的。
08:24
You put energy into the right kind of system
189
489000
3000
你把能量放入一個系統
08:27
and out comes wasted heat, entropy
190
492000
3000
會產出無法控制隨機的熱(熵 entrory)
08:30
and extropy, which is order.
191
495000
3000
跟可以控制有用的部份(extropy)。
08:33
It's the increased order.
192
498000
2000
可掌控部份是有增加的。
08:35
Where does this order come from? Its roots go way back.
193
500000
2000
這部份是從何而來呢? 追根究底
08:37
We actually don't know.
194
502000
2000
其實上我們不知道。
08:39
But we do know that the self-organization trend
195
504000
3000
但是我們很早就從宇宙得知
08:42
throughout the universe is long,
196
507000
2000
這自我組織的趨勢由來已久
08:44
and it began with things like galaxies;
197
509000
2000
從像星系這樣的東西開始
08:46
they maintained their order for billions of years.
198
511000
3000
它們維持自己的秩序有數十億年之久
08:49
Stars are basically nuclear fusion machines
199
514000
4000
星球基本上就是原子能融合機器
08:53
that self-organize and self-sustain themselves for billions of years,
200
518000
3000
它可以自我組織支撐到數十億年。
08:56
this order against the entropy of the world.
201
521000
2000
這種秩序可以對抗無用的浪費。
08:58
And flowers and plants are the same thing, extended,
202
523000
6000
而花草樹木也是同一件事的擴展
09:04
and technology is basically an extension of life.
203
529000
4000
科技基本上也是生命的延伸。
09:08
One trend that we notice in all those things is that
204
533000
4000
所以從這些東西上面我們發現一個趨勢：
09:12
the amount of energy per gram per second
205
537000
2000
每一公克 每秒鐘能流過
09:14
that flows through this, is actually increasing.
206
539000
3000
這裡的能量實際上是遞增的。
09:17
The amount of energy is increasing through this little sequence.
207
542000
5000
通過這個小小通道的能量是一直增加的。
09:22
And that the amount of energy per gram per second that flows through life
208
547000
4000
而流過我們生命的能量以每克每秒算來
09:26
is actually greater than a star --
209
551000
2000
是比一顆星星還多的
09:28
because of the star's long lifespan,
210
553000
3000
因為星星的壽命很長使得
09:31
the energy density in life is actually higher than a star.
211
556000
3000
我們生命的能量密度高於星星。
09:34
And the energy density that we see in the greatest
212
559000
3000
而我們所能見到能量密度最高的
09:37
of anywhere in the universe is actually in a PC chip.
213
562000
3000
實際上是在個人電腦裡的晶片。
09:40
There is more energy flowing through, per gram per second,
214
565000
3000
它有非常高的能量流過
09:43
than anything that we have any other experience with.
215
568000
3000
超越一切我們所能見識到的。
09:46
What I would suggest is that if you want to see
216
571000
3000
所以我建議你如果你想看到
09:49
where technology is going, we continue that trajectory,
217
574000
3000
科技的未來何去何從
09:52
and we say "Well what's going to become more energy-dense,
218
577000
3000
往更高的能量密度走這是很篤定的
09:55
that's where it's going." And so what I've done
219
580000
2000
這是未來的趨勢。 我所做的是
09:57
is, I've taken the same kinds of things
220
582000
2000
我把這些同類的東西
09:59
and looked at other aspects
221
584000
2000
用不同的觀點去看
10:01
of evolutionary life and say,
222
586000
2000
進化性生命的大致走向。
10:03
"What are the general trends in evolutionary life?"
223
588000
2000
進化性生命的
10:05
And there are things moving towards
224
590000
2000
大致趨勢是往
10:07
greater complexity, moving towards greater diversity,
225
592000
2000
更複雜 更多元化
10:09
moving towards greater specialization,
226
594000
3000
更專業化 具洞察力
10:12
sentience, ubiquity and most important, evolvability:
227
597000
4000
無所不及 與最重要的 適者生存律。
10:16
Those very same things are also present in technology.
228
601000
4000
這些生物上的特性也可以在科技中發現。
10:20
That's where technology is going.
229
605000
2000
這也是科技的走向。
10:22
In fact, technology is accelerating
230
607000
2000
事實上科技是在加速
10:24
all the aspects of life,
231
609000
3000
生命中的各個面向。
10:27
and we can see that happening; just as there's diversity in life,
232
612000
3000
這些例子比比皆是。 正如生命的多樣性
10:30
there's more diversity in things we make.
233
615000
3000
我們製造出來的東西越來越多樣化了。
10:33
Things in life start out being general cell,
234
618000
2000
生命是由通用細胞開始
10:35
and they become specialized: You have tissue cells,
235
620000
2000
再形成特殊化的組織細胞
10:37
you have muscle, brain cells. And same things happens with
236
622000
2000
然後有了肌肉跟腦細胞。 同樣的事也發生在科技。
10:39
say, a hammer, which is general at first
237
624000
2000
鐵鎚一開始也是通用的
10:41
and becomes more specific.
238
626000
2000
然後變得更精緻。
10:43
So, I would like to say that while there is six kingdoms of life,
239
628000
3000
所以我想說在生物分類學的六界裡
10:46
we can think of technology basically
240
631000
2000
我們可以加入科技
10:48
as a seventh kingdom of life.
241
633000
2000
變成生命的第七界。
10:50
It's a branching off from the human form.
242
635000
2000
是從人類分出來的一支
10:52
But technology has its own agenda,
243
637000
2000
但是科技有它自己的要面對的問題
10:54
like anything, like life itself.
244
639000
2000
就像其他的東西一樣。
10:56
For instance, right now, three-quarters of the energy that we use
245
641000
3000
比如說現在我們有四分之三的能源是用在
10:59
is actually used to feed the technium itself.
246
644000
2000
支撐科技本身。
11:01
In transportation, it's not to move us, it's to move
247
646000
2000
在運輸裡， 運送的不是我們
11:03
the stuff that we make or buy.
248
648000
2000
而是我們製造跟買的東西。
11:05
I use the word "want." Technology wants.
249
650000
2000
我用"想要"這一詞。 科技也會想要!
11:07
This is a robot that wants to plug itself in to get more power.
250
652000
3000
這是一個機器人想自己插電。
11:10
Your cat wants more food.
251
655000
2000
你的貓也會想要更多的食物。
11:12
A bacterium, which has no consciousness at all,
252
657000
3000
連沒有意識的細菌細胞
11:15
wants to move towards light.
253
660000
2000
也"想要"移向有亮光的地方
11:17
It has an urge, and technology has an urge.
254
662000
3000
他們有一股主見。 科技也是。
11:20
At the same time, it wants to give us things,
255
665000
2000
在另一方面它也想給我們物質上的滿足
11:22
and what it gives us is basically progress.
256
667000
3000
基本上我們也得到進步。
11:25
You can take all kinds of curves, and they're all pointing up.
257
670000
2000
讓我們來看看各種的曲線
11:27
There's really no dispute about progress,
258
672000
3000
如果我們扣除成本
11:30
if we discount the cost of that.
259
675000
3000
關於進步是毫無疑問的。
11:33
And that's the thing that bothers most people,
260
678000
2000
困擾我們大多數人的是
11:35
is that progress is really real,
261
680000
2000
到底這些進步是不是真的
11:37
but we wonder and question: What are the environmental costs of it?
262
682000
4000
我們懷疑所付出的環境代價為何?
11:41
I did a survey of a number of species of artifacts in my house,
263
686000
4000
我查了一下我家裡所有家當的種類
11:45
and there's 6,000. Other people have come up with 10,000.
264
690000
3000
總共有六千種 有些人有到一萬種
11:48
When King Henry of England died,
265
693000
3000
英國的享利國王去世的時候
11:51
he had 18,000 things in his house,
266
696000
2000
他家裡有一萬八千多件東西
11:53
but that was the entire wealth of England.
267
698000
3000
但那是當時整個英國的財富。
11:56
And with that entire wealth of England,
268
701000
4000
不過即使擁有了全英國的財富
12:00
King Henry could not buy any antibiotics,
269
705000
3000
享利國王買不到抗生素
12:03
he could not buy refrigeration, he could not buy a trip of a thousand miles.
270
708000
3000
也買不到電冰箱 他也沒法參加能遊千里的團。
12:06
Whereas this rickshaw wale in India
271
711000
3000
而這位印度的手拉車伕
12:09
could save up and buy antibiotics
272
714000
2000
他卻可以買到抗生素
12:11
and he could buy refrigeration.
273
716000
2000
家裡也有冰箱。
12:13
He could buy things that King Henry, in all his wealth, could never buy.
274
718000
3000
他可以買到用享利國王財富買不到的東西。
12:16
That's what progress is about.
275
721000
2000
這就是進步。
12:18
So, technology is selfish; technology is generous.
276
723000
3000
科技是自私的 科技也是慷慨的
12:21
That conflict, that tension, will be with us forever,
277
726000
3000
這個衝突會永遠跟著我們
12:24
that sometimes it wants to do what it wants to do,
278
729000
2000
有時它會為所欲為
12:26
and sometimes it's going to do things for us.
279
731000
2000
有時它會為我們服務。
12:28
We have confusion about what we should think about a new technology.
280
733000
4000
對新科技應有的看法我們還不很明白。
12:32
Right now the default position about when
281
737000
2000
當一個新科技來臨時
12:34
a new technology comes along, is we --
282
739000
2000
目前我們的預設立場與原則
12:36
people talk about the precautionary principle,
283
741000
2000
是要特別的小心謹慎。
12:38
which is very common in Europe,
284
743000
3000
在歐洲這很常見。
12:41
which says, basically, "Don't do anything. When you meet a new
285
746000
2000
基本上遇上新科技時 "什麼也別做"
12:43
technology, stop,
286
748000
2000
停下來
12:45
until it can be proven that there's no harm."
287
750000
2000
直到可以證明它是無害的。
12:47
I think that really leads nowhere.
288
752000
3000
我想這真的會阻礙進步。
12:50
But a better way is to, what I call proactionary principle,
289
755000
2000
或許有一個更好的辦法
12:52
which is: You engage with technology.
290
757000
3000
叫“積極行動原則”， 就是你主動參與發展
12:55
You try it out.
291
760000
2000
你去試用看看。
12:57
You obviously do what the precautionary principle suggests,
292
762000
4000
在參與的過程中用小心謹慎的原則
13:01
you try to anticipate it, but after anticipating it,
293
766000
2000
和保守態度去預測可能的結果
13:03
you constantly asses it,
294
768000
2000
不時的去評估
13:05
not just once, but eternally.
295
770000
2000
再三的檢視
13:07
And when it diverts from what you want,
296
772000
3000
當你對它出現異狀的時候
13:10
we prioritize risk, we evaluate not just
297
775000
2000
我們再加重風險的比重
13:12
the new stuff, but the old stuff.
298
777000
2000
並把舊的東西也加入一起評估。
13:14
We fix it, but most importantly, we relocate it.
299
779000
3000
我們去修正它 而最重要的是
13:17
And what I mean by that is that
300
782000
2000
"再定位"的概念。我的意思是說
13:19
we find a new job for it.
301
784000
2000
去找到一個新的用途。
13:21
Nuclear energy, fission, is really bad idea
302
786000
2000
例如核能
13:23
for bombs.
303
788000
2000
用來做原子彈真是個壞主意
13:25
But it may be a pretty good idea
304
790000
2000
不過"重新定位"可能就變好了
13:27
relocated into sustainable nuclear energy
305
792000
3000
轉去做自轉式核能動力
13:30
for electricity, instead of burning coal.
306
795000
3000
可以取代燒煤 成為新電力。
13:33
When we have a bad idea, the response to a bad idea
307
798000
3000
當壞點子出現的時候 我們的反應
13:36
is not no ideas, it's not to stop thinking.
308
801000
3000
最好不要 不知所措 或是 停止思考。
13:39
The response to a bad idea --
309
804000
2000
反擊壞點子最好是
13:41
like, say, a tungsten light bulb --
310
806000
3000
像對這個鎢絲燈泡
13:44
is a better idea. OK?
311
809000
2000
是找到更好的點子, 對吧?
13:46
So, better ideas is really -- always the response
312
811000
4000
對我們不喜歡的科技
13:50
to technology that we don't like
313
815000
1000
想辦法去把它變好
13:51
is basically, better technology.
314
816000
3000
變成更好的科技。
13:54
And actually, in a certain sense, technology
315
819000
2000
實際上從某個角度看 科技
13:56
is a kind of a method for generating better ideas,
316
821000
3000
是一種產生更好點子的方法
13:59
if you can think about it that way.
317
824000
2000
如果你能這麼想的話
14:01
So, maybe spraying DDT on crops is a really bad idea.
318
826000
3000
你看 用飛機噴DDT殺蟲劑真是瘋了
14:04
But DDT sprayed on local homes,
319
829000
3000
但在住家附近噴
14:07
there's nothing better to eliminate malaria,
320
832000
3000
消滅瘧疾沒有比這更有效的辦法了
14:10
besides insect DDT-impregnated mosquito nets.
321
835000
4000
因為DDT殺蟲劑可以抑制蚊子繁殖
14:14
But that's a really good idea; that's a good job for technology.
322
839000
3000
這就讓科技適得其所。
14:17
So, our job as humans is to
323
842000
2000
因此身為人類的天職
14:19
parent our mind children,
324
844000
2000
就是去孕育新的概念
14:21
to find them good friends,
325
846000
2000
是為這些主意找到好朋友
14:23
to find them a good job.
326
848000
2000
以及好的用途。
14:25
And so, every technology is sort of a creative force
327
850000
2000
這麽一來 每種科技都是一股創新的力量
14:27
looking for the right job.
328
852000
2000
都在找適合的用途。
14:29
That's actually my son, right here.
329
854000
2000
這張相片裡頭 是我的兒子
14:31
(Laughter)
330
856000
1000
是真的! (笑聲)
14:32
There are no bad technologies,
331
857000
3000
沒有所謂的壞科技
14:35
just as there are no bad children.
332
860000
2000
就像沒有所謂的壞小孩一樣。
14:37
We don't say children are neutral, children are positive.
333
862000
2000
小孩無所謂好或壞
14:39
We just have to find them the right place.
334
864000
3000
最重要的是幫他們找到適合的地方。
14:42
And so, what technology gives us,
335
867000
3000
所以科技為我們帶來的
14:45
over the long term, over the sort of
336
870000
2000
從盤古開天起
14:47
extended evolution -- from the beginning of time,
337
872000
2000
經歷巨大的演進
14:49
through the invention of the plants and animals,
338
874000
4000
到動物植物的創造
14:53
and the evolution of life, the evolution of brains --
339
878000
3000
到生命的進化 腦的進化
14:56
what that is constantly giving us
340
881000
2000
科技持續地為我們帶來的
14:58
is increasing differences:
341
883000
2000
是越來越多的不同和變化。
15:00
It's increasing diversity, it's increasing options,
342
885000
2000
越來越多樣化 越來越多的選項
15:02
it's increasing choices, opportunities,
343
887000
2000
越來越多的選擇 機會
15:04
possibilities and freedoms.
344
889000
2000
可能性與自由。
15:06
That's what we get from technology
345
891000
3000
這是科技一直帶給我們的。
15:09
all the time. That's why people leave villages
346
894000
2000
這也是人們為何離開小村落
15:11
and go into cities, is because they are always
347
896000
2000
進入城市的理由。 因為人們總是
15:13
gravitating towards increased choices and possibilities.
348
898000
4000
往有選擇、 有不同可能性的地方走。
15:17
And we are aware of the price.
349
902000
3000
這背後必須付出代價
15:20
We pay a price for that, but we are aware of it, and generally
350
905000
2000
我們也清楚地知道我們付出了什麼代價
15:22
we will pay the price for increased freedoms,
351
907000
2000
我們願意為自由而付
15:24
choices and opportunities.
352
909000
3000
為選擇 為機會而付出。
15:27
Even technology wants clean water.
353
912000
3000
即使科技也想要乾淨的水。
15:30
Is technology diametrically opposed
354
915000
2000
問題是科技是否完全地違反
15:32
to nature?
355
917000
2000
自然呢?
15:34
Because technology is an extension of life,
356
919000
3000
因為科技是生命的延伸
15:37
it's in parallel and aligned with the same things
357
922000
2000
它與生命想要的
15:39
that life wants.
358
924000
3000
是並行不悖的。
15:42
So that I think technology loves biology,
359
927000
2000
所以我認為科技愛生物學
15:44
if we allow it to.
360
929000
2000
如果我們允許它的話。
15:46
Great movement that is starting billions of years ago
361
931000
4000
數十億年前就開始的偉大變動
15:50
is moving through us and it continues to go,
362
935000
2000
正在通過我們 而且繼續向前。
15:52
and our choice, so to speak,
363
937000
3000
我們對科技的選擇
15:55
in technology, is really to align ourselves
364
940000
2000
真的讓我們能搭上
15:57
with this force much greater than ourselves.
365
942000
2000
這股遠比我們更偉大的力量
15:59
So, technology is more than just the stuff in your pocket.
366
944000
3000
所以科技不只是你口袋裡的小玩具
16:02
It's more than just gadgets; it's more than just things that people invent.
367
947000
3000
不只是酷炫的新玩意 也不只是人類的發明而已
16:05
It's actually part of a very long story,
368
950000
3000
它實際上是源遠流長故事裡的一個部份
16:08
a great story, that began billions of years ago.
369
953000
3000
一個始於數十億年前的偉大故事
16:11
And it's moving through us, this self-organization,
370
956000
2000
這故事正通過我們
16:13
and we're extending and accelerating it,
371
958000
2000
我們正在擴張跟加速這有秩序的自我組織。
16:15
and we can be part of it by aligning the technology
372
960000
2000
我們可以透過調整科技來成為其中的一部份
16:17
that we make with it.
373
962000
2000
我們創造並參與於其中。
16:19
I really appreciate your attention today. Thank you.
374
964000
4000
非常感謝大家今天的用心, 謝謝大家
16:23
(Applause)
375
968000
4000
(掌聲)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Kevin Kelly - Digital visionaryThere may be no one better to contemplate the meaning of cultural change than Kevin Kelly, whose life story reads like a treatise on the value and impacts of technology.
Why you should listen
Kelly has been publisher of the Whole Earth Review, executive editor at Wired magazine (which he co-founded, and where he now holds the title of Senior Maverick), founder of visionary nonprofits and writer on biology, business and “cool tools.” He’s renounced all material things save his bicycle (which he then rode 3,000 miles), founded an organization (the All-Species Foundation) to catalog all life on Earth, championed projects that look 10,000 years into the future (at the Long Now Foundation), and more. He’s admired for his acute perspectives on technology and its relevance to history, biology and society. His new book, The Inevitable, just published, explores 12 technological forces that will shape our future.
Kevin Kelly | Speaker | TED.com