TED2015
Kevin Rudd: Are China and the US doomed to conflict?
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The former prime minister of Australia, Kevin Rudd is also a longtime student of China, with a unique vantage point to watch its power rise in the past few decades. He asks whether the growing ambition of China will inevitably lead to conflict with other major powers -- and suggests another narrative.
Kevin Rudd - International relations expert
While studying future alternatives for China’s global relations, former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has come to an ominous conclusion: conflict is looming. Full bio
While studying future alternatives for China’s global relations, former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has come to an ominous conclusion: conflict is looming. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
G'day, my name's Kevin.
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I'm from Australia. I'm here to help.
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(Laughter)
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Tonight, I want to talk about
a tale of two cities.
a tale of two cities.
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One of those cities is called Washington,
and the other is called Beijing.
and the other is called Beijing.
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Because how these two capitals
shape their future
shape their future
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and the future of the United States
and the future of China
and the future of China
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doesn't just affect those two countries,
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it affects all of us
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in ways, perhaps, we've never thought of:
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the air we breathe, the water we drink,
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the fish we eat,
the quality of our oceans,
the quality of our oceans,
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the languages we speak in the future,
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the jobs we have,
the political systems we choose,
the political systems we choose,
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and, of course, the great questions
of war and peace.
of war and peace.
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You see that bloke? He's French.
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His name is Napoleon.
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A couple of hundred years ago,
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he made this extraordinary projection:
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"China is a sleeping lion,
and when she awakes,
and when she awakes,
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the world will shake."
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Napoleon got a few things wrong;
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he got this one absolutely right.
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Because China is today
not just woken up,
not just woken up,
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China has stood up
and China is on the march,
and China is on the march,
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and the question for us all
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is where will China go
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and how do we engage
this giant of the 21st century?
this giant of the 21st century?
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You start looking at the numbers,
they start to confront you in a big way.
they start to confront you in a big way.
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It's projected that China will become,
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by whichever measure --
PPP, market exchange rates --
PPP, market exchange rates --
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the largest economy in the world
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over the course of the decade ahead.
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They're already
the largest trading nation,
the largest trading nation,
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already the largest exporting nation,
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already the largest manufacturing nation,
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and they're also the biggest
emitters of carbon in the world.
emitters of carbon in the world.
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America comes second.
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So if China does become
the world's largest economy,
the world's largest economy,
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think about this:
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It'll be the first time
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since this guy was on
the throne of England --
the throne of England --
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George III, not a good friend
of Napoleon's --
of Napoleon's --
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that in the world we will have
as the largest economy
as the largest economy
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a non-English speaking country,
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a non-Western country,
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a non-liberal democratic country.
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And if you don't think
that's going to affect
that's going to affect
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the way in which the world
happens in the future,
happens in the future,
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then personally, I think
you've been smoking something,
you've been smoking something,
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and it doesn't mean you're from Colorado.
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So in short, the question
we have tonight is,
we have tonight is,
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how do we understand this mega-change,
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which I believe to be the biggest change
for the first half of the 21st century?
for the first half of the 21st century?
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It'll affect so many things.
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It will go to the absolute core.
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It's happening quietly.
It's happening persistently.
It's happening persistently.
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It's happening in some senses
under the radar,
under the radar,
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as we are all preoccupied with
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what's going in Ukraine,
what's going on in the Middle East,
what's going on in the Middle East,
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what's going on with ISIS,
what's going on with ISIL,
what's going on with ISIL,
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what's happening with
the future of our economies.
the future of our economies.
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This is a slow and quiet revolution.
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And with a mega-change
comes also a mega-challenge,
comes also a mega-challenge,
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and the mega-challenge is this:
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Can these two great countries,
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China and the United States --
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China,
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the Middle Kingdom,
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and the United States,
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Měiguó --
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which in Chinese, by the way,
means "the beautiful country."
means "the beautiful country."
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Think about that -- that's the name
that China has given this country
that China has given this country
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for more than a hundred years.
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Whether these two great civilizations,
these two great countries,
these two great countries,
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can in fact carve out a common future
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for themselves and for the world?
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In short, can we carve out a future
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which is peaceful and mutually prosperous,
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or are we looking at a great challenge
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of war or peace?
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And I have 15 minutes
to work through war or peace,
to work through war or peace,
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which is a little less time
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than they gave this guy to write a book
called "War and Peace."
called "War and Peace."
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People ask me, why is it that a kid
growing up in rural Australia
growing up in rural Australia
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got interested in learning Chinese?
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Well, there are two reasons for that.
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Here's the first of them.
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That's Betsy the cow.
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Now, Betsy the cow was one
of a herd of dairy cattle
of a herd of dairy cattle
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that I grew up with on a farm
in rural Australia.
in rural Australia.
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See those hands there?
These are not built for farming.
These are not built for farming.
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So very early on, I discovered
that in fact, working in a farm
that in fact, working in a farm
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was not designed for me,
and China was a very safe remove
and China was a very safe remove
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from any career in Australian farm life.
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Here's the second reason.
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That's my mom.
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Anyone here ever listen
to what their mom told them to do?
to what their mom told them to do?
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Everyone ever do what
their mom told them to do?
their mom told them to do?
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I rarely did,
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but what my mom said to me was,
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one day, she handed me a newspaper,
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a headline which said,
here we have a huge change.
here we have a huge change.
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And that change is China
entering the United Nations.
entering the United Nations.
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1971, I had just turned 14 years of age,
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and she handed me this headline.
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And she said, "Understand this,
learn this,
learn this,
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because it's going to affect your future."
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So being a very good student of history,
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I decided that the best thing
for me to do was, in fact,
for me to do was, in fact,
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to go off and learn Chinese.
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The great thing about learning Chinese
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is that your Chinese teacher
gives you a new name.
gives you a new name.
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And so they gave me this name:
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Kè, which means to overcome or to conquer,
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and Wén, and that's the character
for literature or the arts.
for literature or the arts.
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Kè Wén, Conqueror of the Classics.
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Any of you guys called "Kevin"?
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It's a major lift from being called Kevin
to be called Conqueror of the Classics.
to be called Conqueror of the Classics.
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(Laughter)
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I've been called Kevin all my life.
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Have you been called Kevin all your life?
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Would you prefer to be called
Conqueror of the Classics?
Conqueror of the Classics?
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And so I went off after that
and joined the Australian Foreign Service,
and joined the Australian Foreign Service,
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but here is where pride -- before pride,
there always comes a fall.
there always comes a fall.
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So there I am in the embassy in Beijing,
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off to the Great Hall of the People
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with our ambassador, who had asked me
to interpret for his first meeting
to interpret for his first meeting
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in the Great Hall of the People.
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And so there was I.
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If you've been to a Chinese meeting,
it's a giant horseshoe.
it's a giant horseshoe.
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At the head of the horsehoe
are the really serious pooh-bahs,
are the really serious pooh-bahs,
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and down the end of the horseshoe
are the not-so-serious pooh-bahs,
are the not-so-serious pooh-bahs,
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the junior woodchucks like me.
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And so the ambassador
began with this inelegant phrase.
began with this inelegant phrase.
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He said, "China and Australia
are currently enjoying a relationship
are currently enjoying a relationship
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of unprecedented closeness."
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And I thought to myself,
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"That sounds clumsy. That sounds odd.
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I will improve it."
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Note to file: Never do that.
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It needed to be a little more elegant,
a little more classical,
a little more classical,
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so I rendered it as follows.
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[In Chinese]
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There was a big pause
on the other side of the room.
on the other side of the room.
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You could see the giant pooh-bahs
at the head of the horseshoe,
at the head of the horseshoe,
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the blood visibly draining
from their faces,
from their faces,
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and the junior woodchucks
at the other end of the horseshoe
at the other end of the horseshoe
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engaged in peals of
unrestrained laughter.
unrestrained laughter.
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Because when I rendered his sentence,
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"Australia and China are
enjoying a relationship
enjoying a relationship
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of unprecedented closeness,"
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in fact, what I said was that
Australia and China
Australia and China
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were now experiencing fantastic orgasm.
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(Laughter)
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That was the last time
I was asked to interpret.
I was asked to interpret.
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But in that little story,
there's a wisdom, which is,
there's a wisdom, which is,
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as soon as you think you know something
about this extraordinary civilization
about this extraordinary civilization
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of 5,000 years of continuing history,
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there's always something new to learn.
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History is against us
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when it comes to the U.S. and China
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forging a common future together.
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This guy up here?
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He's not Chinese and he's not American.
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He's Greek. His name's Thucydides.
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He wrote the history
of the Peloponnesian Wars.
of the Peloponnesian Wars.
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And he made this extraordinary observation
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about Athens and Sparta.
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"It was the rise of Athens
and the fear that this inspired in Sparta
and the fear that this inspired in Sparta
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that made war inevitable."
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And hence, a whole literature about
something called the Thucydides Trap.
something called the Thucydides Trap.
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This guy here? He's not American
and he's not Greek. He's Chinese.
and he's not Greek. He's Chinese.
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His name is Sun Tzu.
He wrote "The Art of War,"
He wrote "The Art of War,"
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and if you see his statement underneath,
it's along these lines:
it's along these lines:
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"Attack him where he is unprepared,
appear where you are not expected."
appear where you are not expected."
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Not looking good so far
for China and the United States.
for China and the United States.
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This guy is an American.
His name's Graham Allison.
His name's Graham Allison.
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In fact, he's a teacher
at the Kennedy School
at the Kennedy School
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over there in Boston.
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He's working on a single project
at the moment, which is,
at the moment, which is,
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does the Thucydides Trap
about the inevitably of war
about the inevitably of war
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between rising powers
and established great powers
and established great powers
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apply to the future
of China-U.S. relations?
of China-U.S. relations?
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It's a core question.
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And what Graham has done
is explore 15 cases in history
is explore 15 cases in history
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since the 1500s
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to establish what the precedents are.
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And in 11 out of 15 of them,
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let me tell you,
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they've ended in catastrophic war.
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You may say, "But Kevin --
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or Conqueror of the Classics --
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that was the past.
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We live now in a world
of interdependence and globalization.
of interdependence and globalization.
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It could never happen again."
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Guess what?
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The economic historians
tell us that in fact,
tell us that in fact,
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the time which we reached
the greatest point
the greatest point
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of economic integration and globalization
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was in 1914,
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just before that happened, World War I,
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a sobering reflection from history.
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So if we are engaged
in this great question
in this great question
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of how China thinks, feels,
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and positions itself
towards the United States,
towards the United States,
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and the reverse,
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how do we get to the baseline
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of how these two countries
and civilizations
and civilizations
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can possibly work together?
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Let me first go to, in fact,
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China's views of the U.S.
and the rest of the West.
and the rest of the West.
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Number one: China feels
as if it's been humiliated
as if it's been humiliated
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at the hands of the West
through a hundred years of history,
through a hundred years of history,
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beginning with the Opium Wars.
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When after that, the Western powers
carved China up into little pieces,
carved China up into little pieces,
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so that by the time
it got to the '20s and '30s,
it got to the '20s and '30s,
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signs like this one appeared
on the streets of Shanghai.
on the streets of Shanghai.
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["No dogs and Chinese allowed"]
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How would you feel if you were Chinese,
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in your own country,
if you saw that sign appear?
if you saw that sign appear?
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China also believes and feels
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as if, in the events of 1919,
at the Peace Conference in Paris,
at the Peace Conference in Paris,
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when Germany's colonies were given back
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to all sorts of countries
around in the world,
around in the world,
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what about German colonies in China?
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They were, in fact, given to Japan.
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When Japan then invaded China in the 1930s
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the world looked away and was indifferent
to what would happen to China.
to what would happen to China.
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And then, on top of that,
the Chinese to this day believe
the Chinese to this day believe
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that the United States and the West
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do not accept the legitimacy
of their political system
of their political system
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because it's so radically different
from those of us who come
from those of us who come
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from liberal democracies,
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and believe that the United States
to this day is seeking
to this day is seeking
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to undermine their political system.
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China also believes
that it is being contained
that it is being contained
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by U.S. allies and by those
with strategic partnerships with the U.S.
with strategic partnerships with the U.S.
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right around its periphery.
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And beyond all that,
the Chinese have this feeling
the Chinese have this feeling
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in their heart of hearts
and in their gut of guts
and in their gut of guts
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that those of us in the collective West
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are just too damned arrogant.
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12:16
That is, we don't recognize
the problems in our own system,
the problems in our own system,
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in our politics and our economics,
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and are very quick
to point the finger elsewhere,
to point the finger elsewhere,
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and believe that, in fact,
we in the collective West
we in the collective West
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are guilty of a great bunch of hypocrisy.
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12:32
Of course, in international relations,
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it's not just the sound
of one hand clapping.
of one hand clapping.
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There's another country too,
and that's called the U.S.
and that's called the U.S.
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So how does the U.S.
respond to all of the above?
respond to all of the above?
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The U.S. has a response to each of those.
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12:47
On the question of
is the U.S. containing China,
is the U.S. containing China,
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they say, "No, look at the history of
the Soviet Union. That was containment."
the Soviet Union. That was containment."
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12:53
Instead, what we have done
in the U.S. and the West
in the U.S. and the West
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12:55
is welcome China
into the global economy,
into the global economy,
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12:57
and on top of that, welcome them
into the World Trade Organization.
into the World Trade Organization.
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The U.S. and the West say China cheats
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on the question
of intellectual property rights,
of intellectual property rights,
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13:05
and through cyberattacks
on U.S. and global firms.
on U.S. and global firms.
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13:09
Furthermore, the United States
says that the Chinese political system
says that the Chinese political system
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is fundamentally wrong
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because it's at such fundamental variance
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13:19
to the human rights, democracy,
and rule of law that we enjoy
and rule of law that we enjoy
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13:22
in the U.S. and the collective West.
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13:25
And on top of all the above,
what does the United States say?
what does the United States say?
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13:28
That they fear that China will,
when it has sufficient power,
when it has sufficient power,
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establish a sphere of influence
in Southeast Asia and wider East Asia,
in Southeast Asia and wider East Asia,
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13:37
boot the United States out,
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13:39
and in time, when it's powerful enough,
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13:41
unilaterally seek to change
the rules of the global order.
the rules of the global order.
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13:45
So apart from all of that,
it's just fine and dandy,
it's just fine and dandy,
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13:48
the U.S.-China relationship.
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No real problems there.
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13:52
The challenge, though,
is given those deep-rooted feelings,
is given those deep-rooted feelings,
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13:56
those deep-rooted emotions
and thought patterns,
and thought patterns,
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13:59
what the Chinese call "Sīwéi,"
ways of thinking,
ways of thinking,
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14:02
how can we craft a basis
for a common future between these two?
for a common future between these two?
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14:07
I argue simply this:
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We can do it on the basis on a framework
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14:10
of constructive realism
for a common purpose.
for a common purpose.
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14:15
What do I mean by that?
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14:17
Be realistic about the things
that we disagree on,
that we disagree on,
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14:19
and a management approach
that doesn't enable
that doesn't enable
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14:21
any one of those differences
to break into war or conflict
to break into war or conflict
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14:24
until we've acquired
the diplomatic skills to solve them.
the diplomatic skills to solve them.
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14:28
Be constructive in areas of the
bilateral, regional and global engagement
bilateral, regional and global engagement
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14:32
between the two,
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14:33
which will make a difference
for all of humankind.
for all of humankind.
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14:36
Build a regional institution
capable of cooperation in Asia,
capable of cooperation in Asia,
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14:40
an Asia-Pacific community.
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14:42
And worldwide, act further,
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14:44
like you've begun to do
at the end of last year
at the end of last year
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14:47
by striking out against climate change
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14:49
with hands joined together
rather than fists apart.
rather than fists apart.
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14:53
Of course, all that happens
if you've got a common mechanism
if you've got a common mechanism
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14:56
and political will to achieve the above.
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14:58
These things are deliverable.
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15:01
But the question is,
are they deliverable alone?
are they deliverable alone?
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15:05
This is what our head
tells us we need to do,
tells us we need to do,
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15:07
but what about our heart?
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15:09
I have a little experience
in the question back home
in the question back home
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15:12
of how you try to bring
together two peoples
together two peoples
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15:16
who, frankly, haven't had
a whole lot in common in the past.
a whole lot in common in the past.
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15:19
And that's when I apologized
to Australia's indigenous peoples.
to Australia's indigenous peoples.
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15:23
This was a day of reckoning
in the Australian government,
in the Australian government,
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15:27
the Australian parliament,
and for the Australian people.
and for the Australian people.
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2692
15:29
After 200 years of unbridled abuse
towards the first Australians,
towards the first Australians,
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4783
15:34
it was high time that we white folks
said we were sorry.
said we were sorry.
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15:39
The important thing --
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15:41
(Applause)
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15:46
The important thing that I remember
is staring in the faces
is staring in the faces
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15:49
of all those from Aboriginal Australia
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2481
15:51
as they came to listen to this apology.
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15:54
It was extraordinary to see, for example,
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3808
15:58
old women telling me the stories
of when they were five years old
of when they were five years old
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3924
16:02
and literally ripped away
from their parents,
from their parents,
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16:05
like this lady here.
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1601
16:06
It was extraordinary for me
to then be able to embrace
to then be able to embrace
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4133
16:10
and to kiss Aboriginal elders
as they came into the parliament building,
as they came into the parliament building,
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3948
16:14
and one woman said to me,
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1256
16:16
it's the first time a white fella
had ever kissed her in her life,
had ever kissed her in her life,
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3155
16:19
and she was over 70.
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1951
16:21
That's a terrible story.
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2507
16:23
And then I remember
this family saying to me,
this family saying to me,
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2462
16:26
"You know, we drove all the way
from the far North down to Canberra
from the far North down to Canberra
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4063
16:30
to come to this thing,
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978304
1370
16:31
drove our way through redneck country.
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2183
16:33
On the way back, stopped at a cafe
after the apology for a milkshake."
after the apology for a milkshake."
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6617
16:40
And they walked into this cafe
quietly, tentatively, gingerly,
quietly, tentatively, gingerly,
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5572
16:46
a little anxious.
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1463
16:47
I think you know what I'm talking about.
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2554
16:50
But the day after the apology,
what happened?
what happened?
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3808
16:53
Everyone in that cafe,
every one of the white folks,
every one of the white folks,
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4110
16:57
stood up and applauded.
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2786
17:00
Something had happened in the hearts
of these people in Australia.
of these people in Australia.
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5136
17:05
The white folks, our Aboriginal
brothers and sisters,
brothers and sisters,
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2689
17:08
and we haven't solved
all these problems together,
all these problems together,
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3228
17:11
but let me tell you,
there was a new beginning
there was a new beginning
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3668
17:15
because we had gone not just to the head,
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2416
17:17
we'd gone also to the heart.
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2658
17:20
So where does that conclude
in terms of the great question
in terms of the great question
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2871
17:23
that we've been asked
to address this evening,
to address this evening,
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17:25
which is the future
of U.S.-China relations?
of U.S.-China relations?
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2964
17:28
The head says there's a way forward.
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2299
17:30
The head says there is a policy framework,
there's a common narrative,
there's a common narrative,
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3691
17:34
there's a mechanism
through regular summitry
through regular summitry
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1927
17:36
to do these things
and to make them better.
and to make them better.
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1904
17:38
But the heart must also find a way
to reimagine the possibilities
to reimagine the possibilities
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5573
17:43
of the America-China relationship,
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1904
17:45
and the possibilities of China's
future engagement in the world.
future engagement in the world.
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3660
17:49
Sometimes, folks, we just need
to take a leap of faith
to take a leap of faith
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6083
17:55
not quite knowing where we might land.
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3924
17:59
In China, they now talk about
the Chinese Dream.
the Chinese Dream.
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4273
18:03
In America, we're all familiar
with the term "the American Dream."
with the term "the American Dream."
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5526
18:09
I think it's time, across the world,
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3134
18:12
that we're able to think also
of something we might also call
of something we might also call
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5132
18:17
a dream for all humankind.
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5142
18:23
Because if we do that,
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1959
18:25
we might just change the way
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18:27
that we think about each other.
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4552
18:35
[In Chinese]
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3111
18:39
That's my challenge to America.
That's my challenge to China.
That's my challenge to China.
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3367
18:42
That's my challenge to all of us,
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2484
18:44
but I think where there's a will
and where there is imagination
and where there is imagination
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3297
18:48
we can turn this into a future
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2044
18:50
driven by peace and prosperity
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2345
18:52
and not once again repeat
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2020
18:54
the tragedies of war.
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18:56
I thank you.
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1858
18:58
(Applause)
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5435
19:03
Chris Anderson: Thanks so much for that.
Thanks so much for that.
Thanks so much for that.
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3179
19:07
It feels like you yourself
have a role to play in this bridging.
have a role to play in this bridging.
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4597
19:11
You, in a way, are uniquely placed
to speak to both sides.
to speak to both sides.
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19:16
Kevin Rudd: Well, what we Australians
do best is organize the drinks,
do best is organize the drinks,
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3253
19:19
so you get them together in one room,
and we suggest this and suggest that,
and we suggest this and suggest that,
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3527
19:22
then we go and get the drinks.
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1433
19:24
But no, look, for all of us
who are friends
who are friends
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2004
19:26
of these two great countries,
America and China,
America and China,
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2262
19:28
you can do something.
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1339
19:29
You can make a practical contribution,
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2299
19:32
and for all you good folks here,
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19:34
next time you meet someone from China,
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1625
19:35
sit down and have a conversation.
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1612
19:37
See what you can find out about
where they come from and what they think,
where they come from and what they think,
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3455
19:40
and my challenge for all
the Chinese folks
the Chinese folks
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2038
19:42
who are going to watch
this TED Talk at some time
this TED Talk at some time
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19:45
is do the same.
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19:47
Two of us seeking to change the world
can actually make a huge difference.
can actually make a huge difference.
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3901
19:51
Those of us up the middle,
we can make a small contribution.
we can make a small contribution.
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2902
19:54
CA: Kevin, all power to you,
my friend. Thank you.
my friend. Thank you.
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19:56
KR: Thank you. Thank you, folks.
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19:58
(Applause)
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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Kevin Rudd - International relations expertWhile studying future alternatives for China’s global relations, former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has come to an ominous conclusion: conflict is looming.
Why you should listen
Drawing on a deep knowledge of Chinese culture, language and history (and as a Senior Fellow with Harvard’s Belfer Center), Kevin Rudd and his colleagues study alternate courses for US-China relations that guide us away from a seemingly inevitable confrontation. As Prime Minister during the global financial crisis (and as one of the founders of the G20), Rudd helped keep Australia out of recession with a stimulus strategy lauded by the IMF as exemplary among its member states. Rudd is also President of the Asia Society Policy Institute, a think tank specializing in Asian affairs.
In March 2015, Rudd published "China under Xi Jinping: Alternative Futures for U.S.-China Relations," a series of three addresses on American and Chinese values, perceptions, interests, and strategic intentions, and their impact on the possibility of developing a common narrative for U.S.-China relations for the future.
Kevin Rudd | Speaker | TED.com