TED2015
Kevin Rudd: Are China and the US doomed to conflict?
凯文·路德（陆克文）: 中国和美国注定要有冲突吗？
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凯文·路德（陆克文），澳洲的前任首相，也是中国的老学生、他利用其职位的独特优势，目睹了中国在过去几十年的崛起与强大。他质疑，中国日益发展的抱负，是否会不可避免地指向与其他大国的冲突——同时他提出了另一种观点。
Kevin Rudd - International relations expert
While studying future alternatives for China’s global relations, former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has come to an ominous conclusion: conflict is looming. Full bio
While studying future alternatives for China’s global relations, former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has come to an ominous conclusion: conflict is looming. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
G'day, my name's Kevin.
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大家好，我叫凯文
00:14
I'm from Australia. I'm here to help.
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我来自澳大利亚，我来帮忙的
00:17
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
00:20
Tonight, I want to talk about
a tale of two cities.
a tale of two cities.
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今晚，我想谈一个关于两个城市的故事
00:24
One of those cities is called Washington,
and the other is called Beijing.
and the other is called Beijing.
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其中一个城市叫华盛顿，另一个叫北京
00:30
Because how these two capitals
shape their future
shape their future
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因为这两个首都如何规划他们的未来
以及美国的未来，中国的未来
00:36
and the future of the United States
and the future of China
and the future of China
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00:39
doesn't just affect those two countries,
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不仅仅是影响这两个国家
00:41
it affects all of us
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它对我们所有人都有影响
00:43
in ways, perhaps, we've never thought of:
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可能，在很多方面，我们都没想过：
00:46
the air we breathe, the water we drink,
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我们呼吸的空气，我们饮用的水
00:51
the fish we eat,
the quality of our oceans,
the quality of our oceans,
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我们食用的鱼，我们海洋的质量
00:54
the languages we speak in the future,
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我们以后使用语言
00:57
the jobs we have,
the political systems we choose,
the political systems we choose,
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我们拥有的工作
我们选择的政治系统
我们选择的政治系统
01:00
and, of course, the great questions
of war and peace.
of war and peace.
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当然，还有，战争与和平这一重大问题
01:06
You see that bloke? He's French.
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看到那哥儿们了吗？他是法国人
01:09
His name is Napoleon.
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他的名字叫拿破仑
01:11
A couple of hundred years ago,
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几百年前
01:12
he made this extraordinary projection:
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他发表了这一非凡的推测
01:15
"China is a sleeping lion,
and when she awakes,
and when she awakes,
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“中国是沉睡的雄狮
当她醒来时世界将为之震撼
01:17
the world will shake."
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01:19
Napoleon got a few things wrong;
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拿破仑犯过一些错误
01:22
he got this one absolutely right.
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但在这一点，他是毫无疑问正确的
01:24
Because China is today
not just woken up,
not just woken up,
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因为今天的中国不单醒了
01:29
China has stood up
and China is on the march,
and China is on the march,
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而且还站了起来，并大步前行
01:32
and the question for us all
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那么留给我们的问题就是
01:34
is where will China go
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中国将走向何方
01:36
and how do we engage
this giant of the 21st century?
this giant of the 21st century?
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我们要如何在21世纪与这巨人一同前行
01:43
You start looking at the numbers,
they start to confront you in a big way.
they start to confront you in a big way.
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你开始注意数据
这些数据大规模向你袭来
这些数据大规模向你袭来
01:47
It's projected that China will become,
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它展示了中国
01:50
by whichever measure --
PPP, market exchange rates --
PPP, market exchange rates --
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不管是以哪种衡量方式——
购买力平价，市场汇率——
购买力平价，市场汇率——
01:53
the largest economy in the world
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在接下来十年的过程中
01:55
over the course of the decade ahead.
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都将成为世界最大的经济体
01:58
They're already
the largest trading nation,
the largest trading nation,
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他们已经是最大的贸易国
02:00
already the largest exporting nation,
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已经是最大的出口国
02:02
already the largest manufacturing nation,
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已经是最大的生产制造国
02:04
and they're also the biggest
emitters of carbon in the world.
emitters of carbon in the world.
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同时也是世界上碳排放量最大的国家
02:08
America comes second.
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美国位居第二
02:11
So if China does become
the world's largest economy,
the world's largest economy,
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所以一旦中国成为世界最大的经济体
02:16
think about this:
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那么细想一下：
02:18
It'll be the first time
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这将会是自
02:21
since this guy was on
the throne of England --
the throne of England --
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这个英国国王
02:26
George III, not a good friend
of Napoleon's --
of Napoleon's --
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乔治三世之后，他可不是拿破仑的好友——
02:29
that in the world we will have
as the largest economy
as the largest economy
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这个世界上形成的最大的经济体
02:35
a non-English speaking country,
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一个非英语的国家
02:37
a non-Western country,
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它不是一个西方国家
02:39
a non-liberal democratic country.
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它不是一个自由民主政治的国家
02:42
And if you don't think
that's going to affect
that's going to affect
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如果你觉得这不会影响世界未来的发展
02:44
the way in which the world
happens in the future,
happens in the future,
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如果你觉得这不会影响世界未来的发展
02:47
then personally, I think
you've been smoking something,
you've been smoking something,
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那么个人觉得，你一定是大麻抽嗨了
02:50
and it doesn't mean you're from Colorado.
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这并不意味你来自科罗拉多
（美国的一个州，大麻已经合法化）
（美国的一个州，大麻已经合法化）
02:54
So in short, the question
we have tonight is,
we have tonight is,
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简而言之，今晚我们的问题
02:57
how do we understand this mega-change,
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就是我们如何理解这场巨变
03:00
which I believe to be the biggest change
for the first half of the 21st century?
for the first half of the 21st century?
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我觉得这是21世纪上半世纪最大的改变
03:05
It'll affect so many things.
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它的影响范围极广
03:08
It will go to the absolute core.
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它会影响到我们的绝对核心
03:10
It's happening quietly.
It's happening persistently.
It's happening persistently.
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它悄然无息在发生
它持续不断在发生
它持续不断在发生
03:12
It's happening in some senses
under the radar,
under the radar,
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它在雷达侦测不到的某种方式在发生
03:15
as we are all preoccupied with
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而此时我们却在关心
03:17
what's going in Ukraine,
what's going on in the Middle East,
what's going on in the Middle East,
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乌克兰怎么了
中东怎么了
中东怎么了
03:19
what's going on with ISIS,
what's going on with ISIL,
what's going on with ISIL,
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ISIS恐怖组织怎么了
ISIL基地组织怎么了
ISIL基地组织怎么了
03:22
what's happening with
the future of our economies.
the future of our economies.
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我们未来的经济会怎样
03:25
This is a slow and quiet revolution.
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这是一个缓慢而无声的革命
03:29
And with a mega-change
comes also a mega-challenge,
comes also a mega-challenge,
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伴随着这个巨变而来的，是巨大的挑战
03:35
and the mega-challenge is this:
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这个巨大的挑战就是：
03:37
Can these two great countries,
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这两个大国
03:39
China and the United States --
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中国和美国——
03:41
China,
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中国
03:47
the Middle Kingdom,
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中央之国
03:49
and the United States,
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美国
03:54
Měiguó --
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Měiguó——
03:57
which in Chinese, by the way,
means "the beautiful country."
means "the beautiful country."
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在中文里，意思是“美丽的国家”
04:00
Think about that -- that's the name
that China has given this country
that China has given this country
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想一下，那是中国在一百多年前
04:04
for more than a hundred years.
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给美国起的名字
04:06
Whether these two great civilizations,
these two great countries,
these two great countries,
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这两种文明，这两个国度
04:09
can in fact carve out a common future
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能否为他们也为世界
04:14
for themselves and for the world?
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勾勒出共同的未来呢？
04:16
In short, can we carve out a future
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简而言之，我们能否勾画出这么一个未来
04:19
which is peaceful and mutually prosperous,
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和平共处，互惠互利
04:23
or are we looking at a great challenge
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或我们是在考虑要战争还是和平
04:24
of war or peace?
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这一巨大挑战？
04:27
And I have 15 minutes
to work through war or peace,
to work through war or peace,
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我有15分钟给大家讲一下战争或和平
04:29
which is a little less time
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这相比当时他们给这个人
04:33
than they gave this guy to write a book
called "War and Peace."
called "War and Peace."
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写《战争与和平》这本书的时间要简短些
04:38
People ask me, why is it that a kid
growing up in rural Australia
growing up in rural Australia
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人们问我，为什么一个在澳大利亚乡下长大的小孩
04:42
got interested in learning Chinese?
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会对学习中文感兴趣呢？
04:44
Well, there are two reasons for that.
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原因有二
04:46
Here's the first of them.
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这是第一个
04:47
That's Betsy the cow.
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这是一头叫贝琪的奶牛
04:49
Now, Betsy the cow was one
of a herd of dairy cattle
of a herd of dairy cattle
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现在，奶牛贝琪是和在澳洲农村
04:53
that I grew up with on a farm
in rural Australia.
in rural Australia.
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和我一起长大的众多奶牛中的一头
04:57
See those hands there?
These are not built for farming.
These are not built for farming.
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看到这双手了吗？它们并不适合用来耕作
05:00
So very early on, I discovered
that in fact, working in a farm
that in fact, working in a farm
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所以很早的时候，我就发现
05:04
was not designed for me,
and China was a very safe remove
and China was a very safe remove
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我并不适合在农场做事，
而中国对我来说
而中国对我来说
05:07
from any career in Australian farm life.
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则是从澳洲农业生活中安全解脱的途径
05:10
Here's the second reason.
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接来下第二个原因
05:12
That's my mom.
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那是我母亲
05:12
Anyone here ever listen
to what their mom told them to do?
to what their mom told them to do?
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在座有人曾听从母亲的建议吗？
05:15
Everyone ever do what
their mom told them to do?
their mom told them to do?
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在座有人曾遵循母亲的建议吗？
05:18
I rarely did,
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我几乎没有
05:20
but what my mom said to me was,
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但我母亲跟我说的是
05:22
one day, she handed me a newspaper,
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有一天，她递给我一张报纸
05:25
a headline which said,
here we have a huge change.
here we have a huge change.
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标题写的是
我们将会有巨大的改变
我们将会有巨大的改变
05:30
And that change is China
entering the United Nations.
entering the United Nations.
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这个改变就是中国进入联合国
05:36
1971, I had just turned 14 years of age,
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1971年，我刚满14岁
05:39
and she handed me this headline.
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她给我看了这个标题
05:41
And she said, "Understand this,
learn this,
learn this,
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然后她说，“去理解，去学习
05:43
because it's going to affect your future."
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因为这会影响你的未来。“
05:46
So being a very good student of history,
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所以作为历史学科的好学生
05:50
I decided that the best thing
for me to do was, in fact,
for me to do was, in fact,
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我决定最适合我的，其实
05:53
to go off and learn Chinese.
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就是立马去学中文
05:55
The great thing about learning Chinese
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对于学中文来说，很棒的一件事
05:57
is that your Chinese teacher
gives you a new name.
gives you a new name.
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就是你的中文老师会给你起一个新名字
06:00
And so they gave me this name:
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所以他们给我这个名字：
06:03
Kè, which means to overcome or to conquer,
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克，意思就是去克服，去征服
06:08
and Wén, and that's the character
for literature or the arts.
for literature or the arts.
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文，这个汉字代表文学艺术
06:13
Kè Wén, Conqueror of the Classics.
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克文，经典文化的征服者
06:17
Any of you guys called "Kevin"?
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有人的名字是凯文吗？
06:20
It's a major lift from being called Kevin
to be called Conqueror of the Classics.
to be called Conqueror of the Classics.
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从”凯文“到”经典文化的征服者“，确实是一大提升啊
06:24
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
06:25
I've been called Kevin all my life.
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我一辈子都被人叫凯文
06:27
Have you been called Kevin all your life?
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你们也是否一辈子都被叫凯文呢？
06:29
Would you prefer to be called
Conqueror of the Classics?
Conqueror of the Classics?
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你是否想要被叫成”经典文化的征服者“？
06:32
And so I went off after that
and joined the Australian Foreign Service,
and joined the Australian Foreign Service,
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大学毕业后我加入澳大利亚外交部服务
06:36
but here is where pride -- before pride,
there always comes a fall.
there always comes a fall.
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但是这个地方让我在得到荣誉之前先跌了一个跟头
06:43
So there I am in the embassy in Beijing,
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那时我在北京的大使馆
06:45
off to the Great Hall of the People
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准备和我们的大使去人民大会堂
06:47
with our ambassador, who had asked me
to interpret for his first meeting
to interpret for his first meeting
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他让我在人民大会堂
06:51
in the Great Hall of the People.
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为他的第一次会议做翻译
06:53
And so there was I.
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所以我就在那儿
06:54
If you've been to a Chinese meeting,
it's a giant horseshoe.
it's a giant horseshoe.
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如果你参加过中国的会议
你就会发现现场是个马蹄铁形
你就会发现现场是个马蹄铁形
06:57
At the head of the horsehoe
are the really serious pooh-bahs,
are the really serious pooh-bahs,
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马蹄的顶端坐着非常严肃的大人物
07:00
and down the end of the horseshoe
are the not-so-serious pooh-bahs,
are the not-so-serious pooh-bahs,
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沿着马蹄下来是一些不怎么严肃的大人物
07:03
the junior woodchucks like me.
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和一些像我一样的小兵小卒
07:05
And so the ambassador
began with this inelegant phrase.
began with this inelegant phrase.
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然后大使用了一句直白做了开场白
07:08
He said, "China and Australia
are currently enjoying a relationship
are currently enjoying a relationship
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他说，“澳中关系目前
07:13
of unprecedented closeness."
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是空前的亲密。”
07:16
And I thought to myself,
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我就对自己说
07:18
"That sounds clumsy. That sounds odd.
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“这听起来很笨拙，很奇怪啊
07:22
I will improve it."
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我要改改。“
07:24
Note to file: Never do that.
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友情提醒：千万不用这么做
07:27
It needed to be a little more elegant,
a little more classical,
a little more classical,
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这句话要稍微优雅些，稍微经典些
07:30
so I rendered it as follows.
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所以经过我的渲染，如下
07:32
[In Chinese]
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"澳中关系最近处于高潮关系"
07:37
There was a big pause
on the other side of the room.
on the other side of the room.
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在房间的另一边，是久久的沉默
07:40
You could see the giant pooh-bahs
at the head of the horseshoe,
at the head of the horseshoe,
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你可以看到马蹄顶端的那些大人物
07:44
the blood visibly draining
from their faces,
from their faces,
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他们脸蹭地一下就充血了
07:47
and the junior woodchucks
at the other end of the horseshoe
at the other end of the horseshoe
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然后马蹄另一端的那些年轻的小兵小将们
07:50
engaged in peals of
unrestrained laughter.
unrestrained laughter.
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爆发出一阵阵大笑
07:53
Because when I rendered his sentence,
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因为当我重新渲染这句话的时候
07:55
"Australia and China are
enjoying a relationship
enjoying a relationship
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“澳中关系目前
07:57
of unprecedented closeness,"
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是空前的亲密。”
07:59
in fact, what I said was that
Australia and China
Australia and China
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实际上，我说的是澳大利亚和中国
08:02
were now experiencing fantastic orgasm.
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正在享受绝美的性高潮
08:05
(Laughter)
154
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（笑声）
08:11
That was the last time
I was asked to interpret.
I was asked to interpret.
155
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这也是我最后一次被叫去做翻译
08:15
But in that little story,
there's a wisdom, which is,
there's a wisdom, which is,
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但在这个小故事中，却蕴含着道理，就是
08:17
as soon as you think you know something
about this extraordinary civilization
about this extraordinary civilization
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哪怕你觉得你已经知道这个拥有5000年历史大国
08:21
of 5,000 years of continuing history,
158
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博大精深的文明
08:23
there's always something new to learn.
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总有新的知识值得你去学习
08:27
History is against us
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当谈到美国与中国
08:29
when it comes to the U.S. and China
161
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共筑共同的未来时
08:31
forging a common future together.
162
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历史总是与我们背道而驰
08:34
This guy up here?
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上面的这个人
08:35
He's not Chinese and he's not American.
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他不是中国人也不是美国人
08:37
He's Greek. His name's Thucydides.
165
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2229
他是希腊人，名字叫修昔底德
08:39
He wrote the history
of the Peloponnesian Wars.
of the Peloponnesian Wars.
166
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2484
他写伯罗奔尼撒战争的历史
08:42
And he made this extraordinary observation
167
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2778
他对雅典和斯巴达
08:45
about Athens and Sparta.
168
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2348
有着卓越的观察研究
08:47
"It was the rise of Athens
and the fear that this inspired in Sparta
and the fear that this inspired in Sparta
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“正是雅典的崛起，以及由此引发的斯巴达的恐惧
08:50
that made war inevitable."
170
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导致战争不可避免”
08:52
And hence, a whole literature about
something called the Thucydides Trap.
something called the Thucydides Trap.
171
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所以，有了所谓的“修昔底德陷阱”
08:57
This guy here? He's not American
and he's not Greek. He's Chinese.
and he's not Greek. He's Chinese.
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这个人，他不是美国人也不是希腊人
他是中国人
他是中国人
09:01
His name is Sun Tzu.
He wrote "The Art of War,"
He wrote "The Art of War,"
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他的名字叫孙子
他写了《孙子兵法》
他写了《孙子兵法》
09:03
and if you see his statement underneath,
it's along these lines:
it's along these lines:
174
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如果你读他的叙述，也就是下面这行字：
09:07
"Attack him where he is unprepared,
appear where you are not expected."
appear where you are not expected."
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“攻其无备, 出其不意”
09:12
Not looking good so far
for China and the United States.
for China and the United States.
176
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4006
中国和美国目前看起来不太乐观
09:16
This guy is an American.
His name's Graham Allison.
His name's Graham Allison.
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这个人是美国人，名字叫格拉阿姆埃里森
09:19
In fact, he's a teacher
at the Kennedy School
at the Kennedy School
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2600
他是波士顿肯尼迪学校
09:21
over there in Boston.
179
549909
1278
的一名老师
09:23
He's working on a single project
at the moment, which is,
at the moment, which is,
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2972
他目前在忙一个项目，就是
09:26
does the Thucydides Trap
about the inevitably of war
about the inevitably of war
181
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3181
关于两股崛起的力量引发的
09:29
between rising powers
and established great powers
and established great powers
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不可避免的战争的修昔底德陷阱
09:32
apply to the future
of China-U.S. relations?
of China-U.S. relations?
183
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2972
是否会应验于中美未来的关系呢？
09:35
It's a core question.
184
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1419
这是个核心问题
09:36
And what Graham has done
is explore 15 cases in history
is explore 15 cases in history
185
564819
4041
格拉阿姆研究了自1500年以来
09:40
since the 1500s
186
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历史上的15个案子
09:43
to establish what the precedents are.
187
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2531
看看前例都是怎样的
09:45
And in 11 out of 15 of them,
188
573852
1996
15个案子中的11个
09:47
let me tell you,
189
575848
2067
让我告诉你们
09:49
they've ended in catastrophic war.
190
577915
3135
它们都已灾难性的战争收尾
09:53
You may say, "But Kevin --
191
581050
3436
你可能会说，“但是，凯文——
09:56
or Conqueror of the Classics --
192
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2299
或称你为经典文化的征服者——
09:58
that was the past.
193
586785
2182
那是过去了
10:00
We live now in a world
of interdependence and globalization.
of interdependence and globalization.
194
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3135
我们现在生活在一个相互依靠，全球化的世界
10:04
It could never happen again."
195
592102
1463
这种事情不可能再发生了。”
10:05
Guess what?
196
593565
1346
猜怎么着？
10:06
The economic historians
tell us that in fact,
tell us that in fact,
197
594911
2670
经济历史学家告诉我们
10:09
the time which we reached
the greatest point
the greatest point
198
597581
2319
事实上我们达到经济一体化和全球化
10:11
of economic integration and globalization
199
599900
2819
最鼎盛的时期
10:14
was in 1914,
200
602719
2571
是在1914年
10:17
just before that happened, World War I,
201
605290
4133
就在第一次世界大战之前，
10:21
a sobering reflection from history.
202
609423
3088
这可是发人省心的史鉴
10:24
So if we are engaged
in this great question
in this great question
203
612511
2554
所以如果我们思考这个问题
10:27
of how China thinks, feels,
204
615065
3205
中国是怎么想的
10:30
and positions itself
towards the United States,
towards the United States,
205
618270
3877
是怎样在美国面前定位自己的
10:34
and the reverse,
206
622147
1486
然后想下美国
10:35
how do we get to the baseline
207
623633
1881
我们怎样才能认识到
10:37
of how these two countries
and civilizations
and civilizations
208
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3390
这两个国家这两种文明
10:40
can possibly work together?
209
628904
2926
协同发展的底线
10:43
Let me first go to, in fact,
210
631830
2298
我先来说说
10:46
China's views of the U.S.
and the rest of the West.
and the rest of the West.
211
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2601
中国对美国以及西方国家的观念
10:48
Number one: China feels
as if it's been humiliated
as if it's been humiliated
212
636729
2875
第一：中国知道在过去的一百年历史里
10:51
at the hands of the West
through a hundred years of history,
through a hundred years of history,
213
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2883
从鸦片战争开始
10:54
beginning with the Opium Wars.
214
642487
1788
备受西方列强的欺辱
10:56
When after that, the Western powers
carved China up into little pieces,
carved China up into little pieces,
215
644275
3808
之后，西方列强瓜分中国
11:00
so that by the time
it got to the '20s and '30s,
it got to the '20s and '30s,
216
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2531
所以在20年代30年代时
11:02
signs like this one appeared
on the streets of Shanghai.
on the streets of Shanghai.
217
650614
2677
像这样的告示牌贴上了上海大街小巷
11:05
["No dogs and Chinese allowed"]
218
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1495
[狗与华人不得入内]
11:06
How would you feel if you were Chinese,
219
654786
1970
如果你是中国人，在你的国家
11:08
in your own country,
if you saw that sign appear?
if you saw that sign appear?
220
656756
2783
看到这样的牌子，你会有何感受？
11:11
China also believes and feels
221
659539
3868
中国同时也相信
11:15
as if, in the events of 1919,
at the Peace Conference in Paris,
at the Peace Conference in Paris,
222
663407
4621
在1919年，巴黎和会上
11:20
when Germany's colonies were given back
223
668028
1896
当德国的殖民地
11:21
to all sorts of countries
around in the world,
around in the world,
224
669924
2144
被归还到世界各国手里时
11:24
what about German colonies in China?
225
672068
1858
德国在中国的殖民地是什么情况呢？
11:25
They were, in fact, given to Japan.
226
673926
2554
它们全给了日本
11:28
When Japan then invaded China in the 1930s
227
676480
4109
当日本在30年代入侵中国时
11:32
the world looked away and was indifferent
to what would happen to China.
to what would happen to China.
228
680589
3668
全世界都袖手旁观
11:36
And then, on top of that,
the Chinese to this day believe
the Chinese to this day believe
229
684257
2857
另外，今天的中国人也相信
11:39
that the United States and the West
230
687114
1687
美国和西方国家
11:40
do not accept the legitimacy
of their political system
of their political system
231
688801
2532
并不接受中国政治体系的合法性
11:43
because it's so radically different
from those of us who come
from those of us who come
232
691333
2890
因为它和我们这些自由民主国家的
11:46
from liberal democracies,
233
694223
1290
有着根本的区别
11:47
and believe that the United States
to this day is seeking
to this day is seeking
234
695513
2816
中国也相信，今天的美国
11:50
to undermine their political system.
235
698329
2438
在伺机破坏他们的政治体系
11:52
China also believes
that it is being contained
that it is being contained
236
700767
3018
中国也相信
11:55
by U.S. allies and by those
with strategic partnerships with the U.S.
with strategic partnerships with the U.S.
237
703785
4853
他们被美国和美国的战略伙伴
12:00
right around its periphery.
238
708638
2624
在周边给包围了
12:03
And beyond all that,
the Chinese have this feeling
the Chinese have this feeling
239
711262
2484
除此之外，中国人觉得
12:05
in their heart of hearts
and in their gut of guts
and in their gut of guts
240
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3228
打心底里，打肺腑里深信
12:08
that those of us in the collective West
241
716974
4202
西方各国的我们
12:13
are just too damned arrogant.
242
721176
3692
太过高傲了
12:16
That is, we don't recognize
the problems in our own system,
the problems in our own system,
243
724868
3947
就是相信，我们没办法意识到自己体系内
12:20
in our politics and our economics,
244
728815
1858
政治方面， 经济方面的问题
12:22
and are very quick
to point the finger elsewhere,
to point the finger elsewhere,
245
730673
2391
然后我们就去别人那里指手画脚
12:25
and believe that, in fact,
we in the collective West
we in the collective West
246
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3762
他们也相信，西方列国的我们
12:28
are guilty of a great bunch of hypocrisy.
247
736826
3808
应为我们的虚伪感到羞愧
12:32
Of course, in international relations,
248
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3413
当然，在国际关系中
12:36
it's not just the sound
of one hand clapping.
of one hand clapping.
249
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3959
一个巴掌是拍不响的
12:40
There's another country too,
and that's called the U.S.
and that's called the U.S.
250
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2682
还有另外一个国家呢，那就是美国
12:42
So how does the U.S.
respond to all of the above?
respond to all of the above?
251
750688
2554
那么美国史如何回应以上这一切的呢？
12:45
The U.S. has a response to each of those.
252
753242
2136
美国对此一一作出回应
12:47
On the question of
is the U.S. containing China,
is the U.S. containing China,
253
755378
2503
其中一个是美国包围中国
12:49
they say, "No, look at the history of
the Soviet Union. That was containment."
the Soviet Union. That was containment."
254
757881
3678
他们说，“不，看苏联的历史，那才是包围。”
12:53
Instead, what we have done
in the U.S. and the West
in the U.S. and the West
255
761559
2410
相反，我们在美国和西方国家所做的
12:55
is welcome China
into the global economy,
into the global economy,
256
763969
1974
是欢迎中国来到世界经济中
12:57
and on top of that, welcome them
into the World Trade Organization.
into the World Trade Organization.
257
765943
3436
另外，我们欢迎他们来到世界贸易组织
13:01
The U.S. and the West say China cheats
258
769379
1873
美国和西方国家说中国
13:03
on the question
of intellectual property rights,
of intellectual property rights,
259
771252
2306
在知识产权这问题上作假
13:05
and through cyberattacks
on U.S. and global firms.
on U.S. and global firms.
260
773558
4319
对美国和跨国公司进行网络攻击
13:09
Furthermore, the United States
says that the Chinese political system
says that the Chinese political system
261
777877
3576
还有，美国说中国的政治体系
13:13
is fundamentally wrong
262
781453
2879
的根本是错误的
13:16
because it's at such fundamental variance
263
784332
3297
因为他们在人权，民主，法律上，
13:19
to the human rights, democracy,
and rule of law that we enjoy
and rule of law that we enjoy
264
787629
3251
和美国以及西方国家
13:22
in the U.S. and the collective West.
265
790880
2624
有着原则性的差别
13:25
And on top of all the above,
what does the United States say?
what does the United States say?
266
793504
3157
除此之外，美国说了什么？
13:28
That they fear that China will,
when it has sufficient power,
when it has sufficient power,
267
796661
5108
他们害怕中国，当达到一定国力时
13:33
establish a sphere of influence
in Southeast Asia and wider East Asia,
in Southeast Asia and wider East Asia,
268
801769
4017
会对东南亚和东亚其它地区产生大规模的影响
13:37
boot the United States out,
269
805786
1904
把美国踢出局
13:39
and in time, when it's powerful enough,
270
807690
2020
当一定时候，当中国国力强盛时
13:41
unilaterally seek to change
the rules of the global order.
the rules of the global order.
271
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4009
会单方面寻机改变世界秩序
13:45
So apart from all of that,
it's just fine and dandy,
it's just fine and dandy,
272
813719
2702
除了这些吵闹，中美关系
13:48
the U.S.-China relationship.
273
816421
1394
还是平和融洽
13:49
No real problems there.
274
817815
2205
没什么大问题
13:52
The challenge, though,
is given those deep-rooted feelings,
is given those deep-rooted feelings,
275
820020
4922
而问题，在于那些根深蒂固的感觉
13:56
those deep-rooted emotions
and thought patterns,
and thought patterns,
276
824942
2995
那些根深蒂固的情绪
以及思考模式
以及思考模式
13:59
what the Chinese call "Sīwéi,"
ways of thinking,
ways of thinking,
277
827937
2810
中国人称之为“思维”，思考方式
14:02
how can we craft a basis
for a common future between these two?
for a common future between these two?
278
830747
4458
我们要如何为两国共同的未来打造一个基础呢？
14:07
I argue simply this:
279
835205
1631
我简单说下我的观点：
14:08
We can do it on the basis on a framework
280
836836
1945
我们可以在有建设性的现实主义框架上
14:10
of constructive realism
for a common purpose.
for a common purpose.
281
838781
4575
为了共同目标，建造这个基础
14:15
What do I mean by that?
282
843356
1973
什么意思呢？
14:17
Be realistic about the things
that we disagree on,
that we disagree on,
283
845329
2345
就是对我们有分歧的事物，要面对现实
14:19
and a management approach
that doesn't enable
that doesn't enable
284
847674
2275
以一种管理手段
14:21
any one of those differences
to break into war or conflict
to break into war or conflict
285
849949
2856
不让任何差异导致战争或冲突
14:24
until we've acquired
the diplomatic skills to solve them.
the diplomatic skills to solve them.
286
852805
3553
直到我们找到外交手段去解决它们
14:28
Be constructive in areas of the
bilateral, regional and global engagement
bilateral, regional and global engagement
287
856358
3656
两国在双边，区域，以及全球对话上
14:32
between the two,
288
860014
1372
要有建设性
14:33
which will make a difference
for all of humankind.
for all of humankind.
289
861386
2727
这对全人类都会有好处
14:36
Build a regional institution
capable of cooperation in Asia,
capable of cooperation in Asia,
290
864113
3993
建立促进在亚洲合作的区域机构
14:40
an Asia-Pacific community.
291
868106
1928
一个亚太共同体
14:42
And worldwide, act further,
292
870034
2414
全球性范围的，则要做得更远些
14:44
like you've begun to do
at the end of last year
at the end of last year
293
872448
2624
像你们去年年末开始那样
14:47
by striking out against climate change
294
875072
2229
携手合力共同对付全球气候变化问题
14:49
with hands joined together
rather than fists apart.
rather than fists apart.
295
877301
3994
而非拳拳相向。
14:53
Of course, all that happens
if you've got a common mechanism
if you've got a common mechanism
296
881295
2902
当然，这一切只有在你们有共同机制
14:56
and political will to achieve the above.
297
884197
2113
以及共同政治意图，才能取得以上目标
14:58
These things are deliverable.
298
886310
2694
这些都是可以做到的
15:01
But the question is,
are they deliverable alone?
are they deliverable alone?
299
889004
4016
但问题是，这些能单独实现吗？
15:05
This is what our head
tells us we need to do,
tells us we need to do,
300
893020
2949
这是我们大脑告诉我们要去做的
15:07
but what about our heart?
301
895969
1904
但我们的心呢？
15:09
I have a little experience
in the question back home
in the question back home
302
897873
3042
在澳洲时，我在一个问题上有个小经历
15:12
of how you try to bring
together two peoples
together two peoples
303
900915
3320
问题就是如何把两个民族团结在一起
15:16
who, frankly, haven't had
a whole lot in common in the past.
a whole lot in common in the past.
304
904235
3622
老实说，他们在过去并没有太多共同点
15:19
And that's when I apologized
to Australia's indigenous peoples.
to Australia's indigenous peoples.
305
907857
3577
所以我当时跟澳洲本土人民道歉了
15:23
This was a day of reckoning
in the Australian government,
in the Australian government,
306
911434
3785
这是澳洲政府，澳洲国会
15:27
the Australian parliament,
and for the Australian people.
and for the Australian people.
307
915219
2692
也是为澳洲人民清算的一天
15:29
After 200 years of unbridled abuse
towards the first Australians,
towards the first Australians,
308
917911
4783
在对澳洲原住民无情虐待200年后
15:34
it was high time that we white folks
said we were sorry.
said we were sorry.
309
922694
5178
是时候让我们白种人为之道歉了
15:39
The important thing --
310
927872
1370
重要的是——
15:41
(Applause)
311
929242
5046
（掌声）
15:46
The important thing that I remember
is staring in the faces
is staring in the faces
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重要的是，我记得
15:49
of all those from Aboriginal Australia
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当他们来听道歉的时候
15:51
as they came to listen to this apology.
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看着那些来自澳洲本土人民的脸
15:54
It was extraordinary to see, for example,
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3808
很特别的经历，例如
15:58
old women telling me the stories
of when they were five years old
of when they were five years old
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3924
老妇人们对我述说他们五岁时
16:02
and literally ripped away
from their parents,
from their parents,
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被人从父母身边夺走的故事
16:05
like this lady here.
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像这边这位女士
16:06
It was extraordinary for me
to then be able to embrace
to then be able to embrace
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当原住民老人进入国会大厦时
16:10
and to kiss Aboriginal elders
as they came into the parliament building,
as they came into the parliament building,
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我能够去拥抱并亲吻他们，
对我来说是很特别的事
对我来说是很特别的事
16:14
and one woman said to me,
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有一位老妇人对我说
16:16
it's the first time a white fella
had ever kissed her in her life,
had ever kissed her in her life,
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这是她人生第一次被白种人亲吻
16:19
and she was over 70.
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她当时已经年过70了
16:21
That's a terrible story.
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这是个悲伤的故事
16:23
And then I remember
this family saying to me,
this family saying to me,
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2462
然后我记得这个家庭跟我说
16:26
"You know, we drove all the way
from the far North down to Canberra
from the far North down to Canberra
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4063
“你知道吗，我们从北边一直开车
16:30
to come to this thing,
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1370
到堪培拉，来到这里
16:31
drove our way through redneck country.
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2183
一路开过乡下农村
16:33
On the way back, stopped at a cafe
after the apology for a milkshake."
after the apology for a milkshake."
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6617
在回去的路上，在道歉会后
在一家咖啡馆停下来要了杯奶昔
在一家咖啡馆停下来要了杯奶昔
16:40
And they walked into this cafe
quietly, tentatively, gingerly,
quietly, tentatively, gingerly,
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他们安静地，试探性地，小心翼翼地
走进这家咖啡馆
走进这家咖啡馆
16:46
a little anxious.
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有点不安
16:47
I think you know what I'm talking about.
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我想你们知道我在说什么
16:50
But the day after the apology,
what happened?
what happened?
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3808
但在道歉会那天之后，发生了什么呢？
16:53
Everyone in that cafe,
every one of the white folks,
every one of the white folks,
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4110
咖啡馆里的每个人，每个白种人
16:57
stood up and applauded.
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2786
都站起来鼓掌
17:00
Something had happened in the hearts
of these people in Australia.
of these people in Australia.
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5136
在澳洲的人民心里，有了些变化
17:05
The white folks, our Aboriginal
brothers and sisters,
brothers and sisters,
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2689
白种人，我们的土著兄弟姐妹
17:08
and we haven't solved
all these problems together,
all these problems together,
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3228
我们还没有共同解决所有的这些问题
17:11
but let me tell you,
there was a new beginning
there was a new beginning
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3668
但让我告诉你们，
我们有了一个新的开始
我们有了一个新的开始
17:15
because we had gone not just to the head,
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2416
因为我们不但用脑去思考
17:17
we'd gone also to the heart.
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2658
我们更用心去感受
17:20
So where does that conclude
in terms of the great question
in terms of the great question
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2871
所以就我们今晚所提出的那个大问题
17:23
that we've been asked
to address this evening,
to address this evening,
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2187
就是中美关系的未来这一问题
17:25
which is the future
of U.S.-China relations?
of U.S.-China relations?
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2964
这个故事的启发在哪呢？
17:28
The head says there's a way forward.
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2299
大脑告诉我们前方有路
17:30
The head says there is a policy framework,
there's a common narrative,
there's a common narrative,
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3691
大脑告诉我们有一个政策框架， 有共同的语言
17:34
there's a mechanism
through regular summitry
through regular summitry
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1927
我们可以通过常规峰会
17:36
to do these things
and to make them better.
and to make them better.
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1904
这样的途径去做这些事情，改善这些事情
17:38
But the heart must also find a way
to reimagine the possibilities
to reimagine the possibilities
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5573
但我们的心也必须寻找途径
17:43
of the America-China relationship,
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1904
去实现中美关系的这些可能性
17:45
and the possibilities of China's
future engagement in the world.
future engagement in the world.
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3660
去实现未来中国与世界交流的可能性
17:49
Sometimes, folks, we just need
to take a leap of faith
to take a leap of faith
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6083
各位，有时候，我们只是需要跨越信任的一步
17:55
not quite knowing where we might land.
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3924
也许我们不知道我们可能在哪里着陆
17:59
In China, they now talk about
the Chinese Dream.
the Chinese Dream.
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4273
在中国，他们在谈论中国梦
18:03
In America, we're all familiar
with the term "the American Dream."
with the term "the American Dream."
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5526
在美国，我们已经对”美国梦“很熟悉了
18:09
I think it's time, across the world,
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3134
我觉得是时候，在全世界
18:12
that we're able to think also
of something we might also call
of something we might also call
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5132
我们可以思考一些我们可以称之为
18:17
a dream for all humankind.
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5142
人类梦的东西了
18:23
Because if we do that,
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1959
因为如果我们这么做
18:25
we might just change the way
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2650
我们可能可以改变
18:27
that we think about each other.
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1095977
4552
我们评价对方的方式
18:35
[In Chinese]
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3111
[人类梦]
18:39
That's my challenge to America.
That's my challenge to China.
That's my challenge to China.
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3367
那是我对美国的挑战
那是我对中国的挑战
那是我对中国的挑战
18:42
That's my challenge to all of us,
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2484
那是我对我们所有人的挑战
18:44
but I think where there's a will
and where there is imagination
and where there is imagination
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3297
但我觉得有愿望，有想象力
18:48
we can turn this into a future
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2044
我们就能通过和平共同繁荣
18:50
driven by peace and prosperity
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1118226
2345
将之实现
18:52
and not once again repeat
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2020
而非再一次
18:54
the tragedies of war.
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2113
重蹈战争悲剧的覆辙
18:56
I thank you.
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1858
我谢谢你们
18:58
(Applause)
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5435
（掌声）
19:03
Chris Anderson: Thanks so much for that.
Thanks so much for that.
Thanks so much for that.
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3179
克里斯·安德森：非常感谢，非常感谢
19:07
It feels like you yourself
have a role to play in this bridging.
have a role to play in this bridging.
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4597
听起来你在这中间有着重要的责任
19:11
You, in a way, are uniquely placed
to speak to both sides.
to speak to both sides.
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1139773
4351
你，在某种方式，处于特殊地位去向双方演说。
19:16
Kevin Rudd: Well, what we Australians
do best is organize the drinks,
do best is organize the drinks,
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1144124
3253
凯文·路德：嗯，我们澳洲人们最棒的就是组织酒会
19:19
so you get them together in one room,
and we suggest this and suggest that,
and we suggest this and suggest that,
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1147377
3527
所以你把他们召集到一个房间来，
然后我们提议这提议那
然后我们提议这提议那
19:22
then we go and get the drinks.
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1433
然后我们喝喝酒
19:24
But no, look, for all of us
who are friends
who are friends
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2004
但，因为都是两国的朋友，中国和美国
19:26
of these two great countries,
America and China,
America and China,
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2262
所以对于我们来说
19:28
you can do something.
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1339
你可以有所作为
19:29
You can make a practical contribution,
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2299
你可以有实际性的贡献
19:32
and for all you good folks here,
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1160241
1881
而且对于在座的所有好人来说
19:34
next time you meet someone from China,
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1625
下一次你见到从中国来的人们
19:35
sit down and have a conversation.
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1163747
1612
坐下来，聊聊天
19:37
See what you can find out about
where they come from and what they think,
where they come from and what they think,
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1165359
3455
看看你能否发现他们来自哪里，有何想法
19:40
and my challenge for all
the Chinese folks
the Chinese folks
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2038
然后我对所有准备有空看这个TED Talk
19:42
who are going to watch
this TED Talk at some time
this TED Talk at some time
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2329
的那些中国人的挑战
19:45
is do the same.
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1173181
2361
也这样做
19:47
Two of us seeking to change the world
can actually make a huge difference.
can actually make a huge difference.
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3901
双方都想要改变世界就能真的能做出巨大的改变
19:51
Those of us up the middle,
we can make a small contribution.
we can make a small contribution.
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1179443
2902
我们这些处在中间的人，也可以做出些小贡献
19:54
CA: Kevin, all power to you,
my friend. Thank you.
my friend. Thank you.
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2356
克：凯文，加油，我的朋友，谢谢你。
19:56
KR: Thank you. Thank you, folks.
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凯：谢谢，谢谢你们。
19:58
(Applause)
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2043
（掌声）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Kevin Rudd - International relations expertWhile studying future alternatives for China’s global relations, former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has come to an ominous conclusion: conflict is looming.
Why you should listen
Drawing on a deep knowledge of Chinese culture, language and history (and as a Senior Fellow with Harvard’s Belfer Center), Kevin Rudd and his colleagues study alternate courses for US-China relations that guide us away from a seemingly inevitable confrontation. As Prime Minister during the global financial crisis (and as one of the founders of the G20), Rudd helped keep Australia out of recession with a stimulus strategy lauded by the IMF as exemplary among its member states. Rudd is also President of the Asia Society Policy Institute, a think tank specializing in Asian affairs.
In March 2015, Rudd published "China under Xi Jinping: Alternative Futures for U.S.-China Relations," a series of three addresses on American and Chinese values, perceptions, interests, and strategic intentions, and their impact on the possibility of developing a common narrative for U.S.-China relations for the future.
Kevin Rudd | Speaker | TED.com