TED2019
Wajahat Ali: The case for having kids
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The global fertility rate, or the number of children per woman, has halved over the last 50 years. What will having fewer babies mean for the future of humanity? In this funny, eye-opening talk, journalist (and self-described exhausted dad) Wajahat Ali examines how the current trend could lead to unexpected problems -- and shares why he believes we need to make it easier for people to have babies. "For those who can and choose to, may you pass on this beautiful thing called life with kindness, generosity, decency and love," he says.
Wajahat Ali - Writer
New York Times contributing op-ed writer, recovering attorney, playwright and exhausted dad Wajahat Ali celebrates the diverse narratives of the United States and advocates for a more inclusive cultural landscape. Full bio
New York Times contributing op-ed writer, recovering attorney, playwright and exhausted dad Wajahat Ali celebrates the diverse narratives of the United States and advocates for a more inclusive cultural landscape. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
I'm an exhausted dad.
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Currently owned and dominated
by two mini dictators,
by two mini dictators,
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who rule my life with an iron fist
while wearing their Huggies diapers.
while wearing their Huggies diapers.
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(Laughter)
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Now probably because I've been
drowning in small people lately,
drowning in small people lately,
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I've been paying close attention
to a particular headline.
to a particular headline.
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It seems around the world,
in developed countries,
in developed countries,
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people are having fewer babies.
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From North America to Europe
to China to Japan,
to China to Japan,
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there's actually been
a consistent decline in birth rates.
a consistent decline in birth rates.
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In fact, over the past 50 years,
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the global fertility rate has halved.
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What the heck is going on?
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Now, my friends who don't want kids,
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all point to climate change
as a reason for never having babies.
as a reason for never having babies.
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And many of you are sitting there
right now, saying,
right now, saying,
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"Waj, there's also overpopulation,
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there's also high birth rates,
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which still exist in many African
and Middle Eastern countries,
and Middle Eastern countries,
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there's also orphan kids
who still need parents,
who still need parents,
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there's also a lack of resources
to go around for everyone,
to go around for everyone,
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and oh, by the way,
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we have a ginormous carbon footprint
that is destroying this planet.
that is destroying this planet.
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I hear you, I hear you.
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And yet, despite all this chaos,
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I still think we should have babies.
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I believe we can and should
fight for the earth and humanity,
fight for the earth and humanity,
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side by side.
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Now, if I could take it
personal for a second,
personal for a second,
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I get it, I get why some of you
might be skeptical about having babies.
might be skeptical about having babies.
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Here's a photo of my wife and me
before we had kids.
before we had kids.
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Young, happy, fresh.
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(Laughter)
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Here's a photo of me after having kids.
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A broken, defeated husk of a man.
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(Laughter)
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Here's the photo of the car
I thought I'd be driving as an adult.
I thought I'd be driving as an adult.
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A Porsche.
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Here's what I actually drive.
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A Honda Odyssey minivan.
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(Laughter)
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(Applause)
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For the minivan.
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Where there was once hope,
now there is convenient space,
now there is convenient space,
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and good mileage, good mileage.
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Now, I just want to stress
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that I'm completely aware
of the very dire threats
of the very dire threats
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of global warming and climate change.
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I just want to acknowledge
that choosing to have babies
that choosing to have babies
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is a deeply, profoundly personal choice.
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And that many who want to are unable.
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But just for today, let's examine
the flip side of the coin.
the flip side of the coin.
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At how not having enough new people
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is going to be a major problem
moving forward.
moving forward.
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According to the World
Health Organization,
Health Organization,
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we need to average about
2.1 children per woman today
2.1 children per woman today
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just so we have enough people
to replace the previous generation.
to replace the previous generation.
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A lot of you thought overpopulation
was going to be a problem in 100 years --
was going to be a problem in 100 years --
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yeah, it might be underpopulation.
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So a question:
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what happens if that number
dips below 2.1?
dips below 2.1?
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There's going to be a domino effect.
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As all of us get older, and live longer,
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there's going to be a shrinking
younger population,
younger population,
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which is going to lead
to rising labor shortages
to rising labor shortages
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in the world's biggest economies.
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I'm talking about United States,
China, Japan, Germany.
China, Japan, Germany.
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Fewer younger working people
means less tax revenue.
means less tax revenue.
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Less tax revenue
means less money and resources
means less money and resources
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to go to safety net programs
that all of us are going to depend upon.
that all of us are going to depend upon.
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I'm talking about pensions
and health care.
and health care.
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It seems every generation
is indeed connected.
is indeed connected.
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But how the heck did we get here
in the first place?
in the first place?
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Well, in some cases, it was intentional.
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Let's take the DeLorean to simpler times.
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Let's stop in China.
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Somewhere between he death of disco
and "Empire Strikes Back" -- 1980.
and "Empire Strikes Back" -- 1980.
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In 1980, China decided to implement
the one-child policy,
the one-child policy,
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largely limiting most parents
to having just one kid
to having just one kid
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to combat overpopulation.
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Check out some good old-fashioned
Chinese propaganda, lovely.
Chinese propaganda, lovely.
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Now, fast-forward to 2019.
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Even after ending
its one-child policy in 2015,
its one-child policy in 2015,
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China's birth rates have largely declined.
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In fact, the falling population in China
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is removing one of its biggest
drivers of growth -- people.
drivers of growth -- people.
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If trends continue,
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China's population
is actually going to peak in 2029,
is actually going to peak in 2029,
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before entering "unstoppable decline."
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China's government
is so freaked out right now
is so freaked out right now
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that it's actually doing new propaganda --
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it's begging couples
to have children for the country.
to have children for the country.
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Let's take the DeLorean
and hop over to Japan,
and hop over to Japan,
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home of my beloved Honda Odyssey minivan.
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(Laughter)
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Japan is now producing more
adult diapers than infant ones.
adult diapers than infant ones.
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The number of kids in Japan
has fallen for the 37th straight year.
has fallen for the 37th straight year.
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And unlike other countries,
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it has not been able to replace
its population numbers
its population numbers
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through immigrant workers.
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There will be labor shortages
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and not enough money to fund
the safety-net programs.
the safety-net programs.
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Now, Japan has introduced two solutions.
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First, a financial incentive.
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Some local governments in Japan
have offered couples money to have babies,
have offered couples money to have babies,
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with the money increasing
with each additional child being born.
with each additional child being born.
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This actually worked for one year in 2014
in this town called Ama.
in this town called Ama.
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It actually raised the birth rate
from about 1.66 kids per woman to 1.8.
from about 1.66 kids per woman to 1.8.
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But it did not gain traction across Japan.
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In 2018, a leader of Japan's
ruling party tried a new tack.
ruling party tried a new tack.
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He told young people,
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"You're selfish for not having babies."
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Shockingly, shaming was not
a rousing aphrodisiac.
a rousing aphrodisiac.
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Surprise, I know, surprise.
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Who would have thought?
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(Laughter)
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Let's take the DeLorean to Europe,
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the continent of delicious cheeses
I love to eat but cannot pronounce.
I love to eat but cannot pronounce.
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The UK and much of Western Europe
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has a birth rate of about
1.7 kids per woman,
1.7 kids per woman,
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which at least is better than Hungary,
where it hovers around 1.45.
where it hovers around 1.45.
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Now, Hungary's prime minister Viktor Orbán
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has proposed a new solution
to try to incentivize people to have kids.
to try to incentivize people to have kids.
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He said families where the women
have four or more kids
have four or more kids
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will no longer pay income tax.
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Pretty good, right, pretty good.
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At least it's better
than Russia's 2007 proposal,
than Russia's 2007 proposal,
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which once offered women
in a particular region
in a particular region
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the opportunity of winning a fridge
if they had more kids.
if they had more kids.
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(Laughter)
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Yeah, it didn't work, it didn't work.
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But hold on, pump the brakes.
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Orbán is primarily proposing this
because he wants to limit
because he wants to limit
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the population of Muslims
and people of color.
and people of color.
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He says he doesn't think Hungary's
traditions and culture and color
traditions and culture and color
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has to be "mixed with those of others."
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Subtle.
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Unfortunately for Orbán,
and much of the EU,
and much of the EU,
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the birth rates are not
high enough right now
high enough right now
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to be replenished without immigration.
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Among EU countries,
there is a demographic decline.
there is a demographic decline.
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So it seems, in Europe, karma
is going to be brown and Muslim.
is going to be brown and Muslim.
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(Laughter) (Applause)
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Just saying.
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The question remains:
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Why aren't people having enough kids?
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Why is the birth rate declining
in these countries?
in these countries?
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In some cases,
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it's because women
are more literate, more educated.
are more literate, more educated.
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They have more economic
opportunities -- applaud.
opportunities -- applaud.
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All good things, all good things, yes.
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(Applause)
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In India, this has been fantastic,
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it has actually reduced the birth rate
but kept it above that magic 2.1 number.
but kept it above that magic 2.1 number.
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Women also have
more access to birth control,
more access to birth control,
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more control over
their reproductive lives,
their reproductive lives,
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all good things.
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But in the United States, in particular,
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a lot of young people
are opting out of having kids,
are opting out of having kids,
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largely cite the same reason:
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financial concerns.
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Let's take the DeLorean to my motherland,
the United States of America,
the United States of America,
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where the birth rate
hit its historic low in 2017.
hit its historic low in 2017.
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The United States is the most expensive
country in the world
country in the world
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to give birth.
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If you do not have insurance,
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it will cost you 32,000 dollars
to have a baby,
to have a baby,
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if everything goes perfectly.
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That's like buying a brand new
Honda Odyssey minivan, OK?
Honda Odyssey minivan, OK?
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So, congratulations, you just had a baby,
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but the baby's economic productivity
is zero, and guess what?
is zero, and guess what?
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The United States is the only
industrialized country in the world
industrialized country in the world
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that does not require employers
to offer paid parental leave.
to offer paid parental leave.
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"Mom, you just had a baby,
congratulations, that's lovely.
congratulations, that's lovely.
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Get back to work
or you're fired, young mom!"
or you're fired, young mom!"
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My wife and I, both working parents,
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pay about 3,500 dollars a month --
a month -- in Virginia for childcare.
a month -- in Virginia for childcare.
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If you do the math,
that's 40,000 dollars a year.
that's 40,000 dollars a year.
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That's like buying a brand new,
souped-up, Honda Odyssey minivan, OK.
souped-up, Honda Odyssey minivan, OK.
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I have one, I do not need 10.
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So here's my bold suggestion.
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Let's make it easier
for people to have babies.
for people to have babies.
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It seems in order to invest in our future,
we actually have to invest in the present
we actually have to invest in the present
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and help those people
who want to become parents.
who want to become parents.
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Give them affordable health care,
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give them affordable childcare,
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give them paid parental leave.
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Among the EU states in 2017,
France reported the highest birth rates.
France reported the highest birth rates.
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Why?
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Largely due to its pronatal policies
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that actually kept women in the workforce.
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I'm talking about subsidized daycare
and paid maternal leave.
and paid maternal leave.
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China and Japan, thank God,
are finally wisening up
are finally wisening up
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and proposing such policies.
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This is great.
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That being said, I know
some of you have listened to me
some of you have listened to me
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and you still think the best investment
we can make in the future
we can make in the future
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is not having babies.
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I respect that.
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I get where you're coming from.
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And I know many of you in this audience
want to have babies
want to have babies
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but you are terrified about the future.
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And as a parent, I feel you.
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I'm scared about the future.
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I wrote that last line a month ago.
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But it really hit home
three days ago for me,
three days ago for me,
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while I was at TED.
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Three days ago, my wife calls me, crying.
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I pick it up in my hotel room.
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And she said, "I'm calling
from the hospital."
from the hospital."
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We had to take my baby daughter Nusayba,
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who was named after a warrior princess,
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to the hospital, because she found
a bump on the stomach.
a bump on the stomach.
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We got back the results,
and there were bumps all around her liver.
and there were bumps all around her liver.
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Today, this morning, we found out
that she has stage IV liver cancer.
that she has stage IV liver cancer.
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(Audience gasps)
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It has been a challenging week.
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It has been a challenging week.
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And if I may, I just want to take a moment
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to acknowledge the TED staff,
everyone, top-down,
everyone, top-down,
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everyone in the back, in the green room,
some of the speakers, word has spread.
some of the speakers, word has spread.
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On behalf of my family, my wife,
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and my parents -- my Pakistani parents
said I had to say this --
said I had to say this --
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thank you for just being decent
and kind this week.
and kind this week.
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So thank you.
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(Applause)
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These are my beloveds,
my Ibrahim and Nusayba, my babies.
my Ibrahim and Nusayba, my babies.
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I talked to my wife,
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and despite the terrible news
and the fight ahead,
and the fight ahead,
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we both concluded that we regret nothing.
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Deciding to have babies
was the best decision we ever made.
was the best decision we ever made.
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Our babies have brought us so much joy
and they've brought the world so much joy,
and they've brought the world so much joy,
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and having kids is a risk,
but life is a risk.
but life is a risk.
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And yes, I hope you've been
paying attention,
paying attention,
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we need to invest in babies
in developed countries
in developed countries
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if we want to help save
our economy and pensions.
our economy and pensions.
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But that's not the reason you have babies.
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That's not the main reason.
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Babies have always represented
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humanity's best, boldest,
most beautiful infinite possibilities.
most beautiful infinite possibilities.
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And if we in developed countries,
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as a whole, opt out,
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and don't invest in present
and future generations,
and future generations,
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then what the hell's the point?
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What's the point of being
on this absurd journey together?
on this absurd journey together?
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And so, for those who can
and who choose to,
and who choose to,
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for those who can
and who choose to have kids,
and who choose to have kids,
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may you pass on
this beautiful thing called life,
this beautiful thing called life,
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with kindness, generosity,
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decency and love.
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Thank you.
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(Applause)
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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Wajahat Ali - WriterNew York Times contributing op-ed writer, recovering attorney, playwright and exhausted dad Wajahat Ali celebrates the diverse narratives of the United States and advocates for a more inclusive cultural landscape.
Why you should listen
As Wajahat Ali writes: "I'm a left-handed son of Pakistani Muslim immigrants who is still trying to figure out what he wants to be when he grows up -- but once in a while, I can tell a great story and amuse people. Now, I get paid to write and tell stories that are by us, for everyone. As a father of two caramel-mocha skinned babies with multi-syllabic names, I often ask myself, 'What's my role as a parent? How do I protect my children from unique challenges and horrors they will have to face?'
"Even as the doubts and worries multiply, my wife and I still believe having kids was the best decision we ever made. Not only have they brought us considerable joy, but they have inspired me to try to fix as many of the problems we face today, so all of our children can emerge as the protagonists of an evolving American narrative."
Wajahat Ali | Speaker | TED.com