TED@BCG San Francisco
Philip Evans: How data will transform business
Philip Evans: Kako će podaci promijeniti poslovanje
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Kako izgleda budućnost poslovanja? U informativnom govoru, Philip Evans daje brzu lekciju o dvije dugostojeće teorije u strategiji - i objašnjava zašto misli da su esencijalno pogrešne.
Philip Evans - Consultant
BCG's Philip Evans has a bold prediction for the future of business strategy -- and it starts with Big Data. Full bio
BCG's Philip Evans has a bold prediction for the future of business strategy -- and it starts with Big Data. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
I'm going to talk a little bit about strategy
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Govorit ću o strategiji
00:14
and its relationship with technology.
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i njenoj vezi s tehnologijom.
00:18
We tend to think of business strategy
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Razmišljamo o poslovnoj strategiji
00:21
as being a rather abstract body
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kao o apstraktnom
00:23
of essentially economic thought,
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možda bezvremenom tijelu,
00:25
perhaps rather timeless.
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temeljno ekonomske misli.
00:27
I'm going to argue that, in fact,
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Vodit ću raspravu da se, ustvari,
00:28
business strategy has always been premised
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poslovna strategija uvijek povodila
00:31
on assumptions about technology,
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pretpostavkama o tehnologiji,
00:33
that those assumptions are changing,
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da se te pretpostavke mijenjaju,
00:35
and, in fact, changing quite dramatically,
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i da se mijenjaju poprilično dramatično,
00:38
and that therefore what that will drive us to
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te da je stoga to ono što će nas dovesti
00:41
is a different concept of what we mean
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do drugačijeg koncepta onoga što smatramo
00:44
by business strategy.
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poslovnom strategijom.
00:47
Let me start, if I may,
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Počet ću, ako mogu,
00:48
with a little bit of history.
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s malo povijesti.
00:51
The idea of strategy in business
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Ideja strategije u poslu
00:53
owes its origins to two intellectual giants:
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duguje svoje porijeklo dvama
intelektualnim divovima:
intelektualnim divovima:
00:56
Bruce Henderson, the founder of BCG,
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Bruceu Hendersonu, osnivaču BCG-a,
00:58
and Michael Porter, professor
at the Harvard Business School.
at the Harvard Business School.
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i Michaelu Porteru, profesoru na
poslovnoj školi Harvard.
poslovnoj školi Harvard.
01:02
Henderson's central idea was what you might call
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Hendersonova središnja ideja je ono što
biste mogli nazvati
biste mogli nazvati
01:05
the Napoleonic idea of concentrating mass
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Napoleonskom idejom koncentriranja mase
01:08
against weakness, of overwhelming the enemy.
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protiv slabosti, biti nadmoćan nad
protivnikom.
protivnikom.
01:10
What Henderson recognized was that,
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Henderson je prepoznao da
01:12
in the business world,
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u poslovnom svijetu,
01:14
there are many phenomena which are characterized
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postoji puno fenomena koji su
karakterizirani
karakterizirani
01:16
by what economists would call increasing returns --
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onime što bi ekonomisti prozvali
01:18
scale, experience.
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povećanjem prinosa,
obujmom i iskustvom.
obujmom i iskustvom.
01:20
The more you do of something,
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Što više radite nešto,
01:22
disproportionately the better you get.
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postajete neproporcionalno bolji.
01:24
And therefore he found a logic for investing
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Stoga je našao logiku u investiranju
01:27
in such kinds of overwhelming mass
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u takve nadmoći nad masama
01:30
in order to achieve competitive advantage.
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u svrhu postizanja natjecateljske
prednosti.
prednosti.
01:32
And that was the first introduction
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To je bio prvi uvod
01:34
of essentially a military concept of strategy
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u esencijalno vojnu strategiju
01:37
into the business world.
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u poslovnom svijetu.
01:40
Porter agreed with that premise,
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Porter se složio s tom premisom,
01:43
but he qualified it.
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i dodatno je poboljšao.
01:44
He pointed out, correctly, that that's all very well,
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Pokazao je, ispravno, da je to sve u redu,
01:47
but businesses actually have multiple steps to them.
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ali poslovi imaju više stepenica
u suštini.
u suštini.
01:51
They have different components,
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Imaju drugačije komponente,
01:53
and each of those components might be driven
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i svaka od tih komponenti može biti
pokrenuta
pokrenuta
01:55
by a different kind of strategy.
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drugačijom vrstom strategije.
01:57
A company or a business
might actually be advantaged
might actually be advantaged
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Poduzeće ili posao može imati prednost
01:59
in some activities but disadvantaged in others.
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u nekim pogledima, no izgubiti ih
u drugima.
u drugima.
02:03
He formed the concept of the value chain,
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Stvorio je koncept lanca vrijednosti,
02:05
essentially the sequence of steps with which
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u osnovi slijed stepenica kojim,
02:08
a, shall we say, raw material, becomes a component,
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možemo reći, sirov materijal postaje
komponenta,
komponenta,
02:11
becomes assembled into a finished product,
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spaja se u završni proizvod,
02:12
and then is distributed, for example,
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i distribuirana se.
02:15
and he argued that advantage accrued
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Raspravljao je da se ta prednost
obračunava
obračunava
02:18
to each of those components,
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prema svim komponentama,
02:19
and that the advantage of the whole
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i da je cijela prednost
02:21
was in some sense the sum or the average
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na neki način zbroj ili prosjek
02:23
of that of its parts.
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vlastitih dijelova.
02:25
And this idea of the value chain was predicated
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Ta ideja lanca vrijednosti je izrečena
02:28
on the recognition that
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prepoznavanjem da
02:30
what holds a business together is transaction costs,
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ono što drži posao na okupu je cijena
transakcija,
transakcija,
02:34
that in essence you need to coordinate,
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koje ustvari morate koordinirati,
02:36
organizations are more efficient at coordination
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a organizacije su vrlo često učinkovitije
u koordinaciji
u koordinaciji
02:39
than markets, very often,
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nego tržište,
02:41
and therefore the nature and role and boundaries
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i stoga su priroda, uloga i granice
02:44
of the cooperation are defined by transaction costs.
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kooperacije omeđene
cijenama transakcije.
cijenama transakcije.
02:47
It was on those two ideas,
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Na te dvije ideje,
02:50
Henderson's idea of increasing returns
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Hendersonovoj ideji povećanja prinosa
02:53
to scale and experience,
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obujmom i iskustvom,
02:55
and Porter's idea of the value chain,
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i Porterovoj ideji o lancu vrijednosti,
02:57
encompassing heterogenous elements,
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obuhvaćajući različite elemente,
02:59
that the whole edifice of business strategy
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na kojima je cijela infrastruktura
poslovnih strategija
poslovnih strategija
03:03
was subsequently erected.
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posljedično izgrađena.
03:05
Now what I'm going to argue is
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Ono o čemu ću sada raspravljati je
03:08
that those premises are, in fact, being invalidated.
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da se te premise poništavaju.
03:14
First of all, let's think about transaction costs.
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Prvo, razmislimo o cijeni transakcija.
03:16
There are really two components
to transaction costs.
to transaction costs.
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Postoje zapravo dvije sastavnice kod
cijene.
cijene.
03:19
One is about processing information,
and the other is about communication.
and the other is about communication.
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Jedna je razrada informacija,
druga je komunikacija.
druga je komunikacija.
03:21
These are the economics of
processing and communicating
processing and communicating
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To su ekonomije procesa i komunikacija
03:25
as they have evolved over a long period of time.
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koje su se razvile tijekom dugog vremena.
03:27
As we all know from so many contexts,
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Kako što svi znamo iz toliko situacija,
03:30
they have been radically transformed
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teorije su se radikalno promijenile
03:32
since the days when Porter and Henderson
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od dana kada su Porter i Henderson
03:35
first formulated their theories.
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formulirali.
03:37
In particular, since the mid-'90s,
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Specifično, od sredine 90-ih,
03:39
communications costs have actually been falling
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cijene komuniciranja su padale brže
03:41
even faster than transaction costs,
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nego troškovi transakcija,
03:43
which is why communication, the Internet,
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što je razlog zašto su komunikacije,
internet,
internet,
03:45
has exploded in such a dramatic fashion.
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eksplodirale na tako dramatičan način.
03:50
Now, those falling transaction costs
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Taj pad troškova transakcije
03:52
have profound consequences,
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ima duboke poslijedice,
03:54
because if transaction costs are the glue
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jer ako su troškovi transakcije ljepilo,
03:56
that hold value chains together, and they are falling,
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koje drži lance vrijednosti zajedno,
a oni padaju,
a oni padaju,
03:58
there is less to economize on.
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manja je mogućnost štednje.
04:00
There is less need for vertically
integrated organization,
integrated organization,
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Manja je potreba za verikalno integriranu
organizaciju,
organizaciju,
04:03
and value chains at least can break up.
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a lanci vrijednosti se mogu i slomiti.
04:06
They needn't necessarily, but they can.
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Ne moraju nužno, ali mogu.
04:08
In particular, it then becomes possible for
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Specifično, tada postaje moguće
04:10
a competitor in one business
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za natjecatelja u jednom poslu
04:12
to use their position in one step of the value chain
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da iskoristi svoju poziciju u jednoj
kariki lanca vrijednosti
kariki lanca vrijednosti
04:15
in order to penetrate or attack
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s razlogom da napadne ili
04:17
or disintermediate the competitor in another.
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onesposobi natjecatelja u drugom poslu.
04:20
That is not just an abstract proposition.
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To nije samo apstraktni prijedlog.
04:23
There are many very specific stories
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Postoji mnogo specifičnih priča
04:25
of how that actually happened.
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o tome kako se to zapravo dogodilo.
04:27
A poster child example was
the encyclopedia business.
the encyclopedia business.
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Tipičan primjer ovoga je posao
enciklopedija.
enciklopedija.
04:30
The encyclopedia business
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Posao enciklopedija
04:31
in the days of leatherbound books
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u vremenima knjiga uvezanih u kožu
04:34
was basically a distribution business.
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je bio distribucijski posao.
04:35
Most of the cost was the
commission to the salesmen.
commission to the salesmen.
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Većina cijene je bila provizija prodavaču.
04:38
The CD-ROM and then the Internet came along,
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Tada su došli CD i Internet,
04:40
new technologies made the distribution of knowledge
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nove tehnologije za distribuciju znanja
04:44
many orders of magnitude cheaper,
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višestruko jeftinije,
04:46
and the encyclopedia industry collapsed.
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i industrija enciklopedija se srušila.
04:49
It's now, of course, a very familiar story.
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Sada je to, naravno, to vrlo poznata priča.
04:52
This, in fact, more generally was the story
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Ovo, ustvari, je više bila priča
04:54
of the first generation of the Internet economy.
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o prvoj generaciji internetske ekonomije.
04:56
It was about falling transaction costs
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O padanju troškova transakcija,
04:58
breaking up value chains
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pucanju lanaca vrijednosti
05:00
and therefore allowing disintermediation,
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i stoga dopuštajući micanje posrednika,
05:02
or what we call deconstruction.
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ili ono što zovemo dekonstrukcijom.
05:05
One of the questions I was occasionally asked was,
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Jedno od pitanja koje me povremeno
pitaju je,
pitaju je,
05:07
well, what's going to replace the encyclopedia
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što će zamijeniti enciklopediju
05:10
when Britannica no longer has a business model?
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kada Britannica više ne drži
poslovni model?
poslovni model?
05:12
And it was a while before
the answer became manifest.
the answer became manifest.
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Prošlo je vremena prije nego što
se odgovor počeo nazirati.
se odgovor počeo nazirati.
05:14
Now, of course, we know
what it is: it's the Wikipedia.
what it is: it's the Wikipedia.
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Sada, naravno, znamo što je: Wikipedia.
05:17
Now what's special about the
Wikipedia is not its distribution.
Wikipedia is not its distribution.
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Ono što je posebno kod Wikipedije nije
njena distribucija.
njena distribucija.
05:20
What's special about the Wikipedia
is the way it's produced.
is the way it's produced.
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Ono što je posebno kod Wikipedije je
način na koji nastaje.
način na koji nastaje.
05:23
The Wikipedia, of course, is an encyclopedia
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Wikipedija je enciklopedija
05:25
created by its users.
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stvorena od svojih korisnika.
05:28
And this, in fact, defines what you might call
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To, ustvari, definira ono što možete
05:30
the second decade of the Internet economy,
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nazvati drugim desetljećem internetske
ekonomije,
ekonomije,
05:32
the decade in which the Internet as a noun
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desetljeće u kojem internet kao imenica
05:35
became the Internet as a verb.
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postaje internet kao glagol.
05:37
It became a set of conversations,
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Postao je skup razgovora,
05:39
the era in which user-generated
content and social networks
content and social networks
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era u kojoj je sadržaj koji je stvorio
korisnik i društvene mreže
korisnik i društvene mreže
05:43
became the dominant phenomenon.
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postao dominantni fenomen.
05:46
Now what that really meant
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To je, zapravo, značilo,
05:48
in terms of the Porter-Henderson framework
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u okvirima rada Portera i Hendersona,
05:51
was the collapse of certain
kinds of economies of scale.
kinds of economies of scale.
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kolaps određenih vrsta ekonomija
obujma.
obujma.
05:55
It turned out that tens of thousands
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Ispalo je da deseci tisuća
05:57
of autonomous individuals writing an encyclopedia
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autonomnih pojedinaca koji pišu
enciklopediju
enciklopediju
06:00
could do just as good a job,
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mogu obaviti jednako dobar posao
06:02
and certainly a much cheaper job,
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i sigurno puno jefitiniji posao,
06:03
than professionals in a hierarchical organization.
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nego profesionalci u hijerarhijskoj
strukturi.
strukturi.
06:06
So basically what was happening was that one layer
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Ukratko se događalo to da se jedan sloj
06:09
of this value chain was becoming fragmented,
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ovog lanca vrijednosti raspadao
na komade,
na komade,
06:12
as individuals could take over
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kako su pojedinci mogli preuzeti
06:13
where organizations were no longer needed.
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ono gdje organizacije više nisu bile
potrebne.
potrebne.
06:17
But there's another question
that obviously this graph poses,
that obviously this graph poses,
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No ima još jedno pitanje koje graf
očito nameće,
očito nameće,
06:19
which is, okay, we've
gone through two decades --
gone through two decades --
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prošli smo kroz dva desetljeća --
06:22
does anything distinguish the third?
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izdvaja li se što u trećem?
06:24
And what I'm going to argue is that indeed
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Ono što ću raspravljati je da se
06:26
something does distinguish the third,
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doista izdvaja nešto,
06:28
and it maps exactly on to the kind of
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i dolazi točno na
06:30
Porter-Henderson logic that
we've been talking about.
we've been talking about.
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Porter-Hendersonovu logiku o
kojoj smo pričali.
kojoj smo pričali.
06:33
And that is, about data.
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A to je, o podacima.
06:35
If we go back to around 2000,
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Ako se vratimo u 2000.,
06:37
a lot of people were talking
about the information revolution,
about the information revolution,
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mnogo ljudi je pričalo o
informacijskoj revoluciji,
informacijskoj revoluciji,
06:39
and it was indeed true that the world's stock of data
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i istina je bila da se svjetska riznica
06:42
was growing, indeed growing quite fast.
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informacija rapidno povećava.
06:44
but it was still at that point overwhelmingly analog.
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No u to vrijeme je to još uvijek bilo
iznimno analogno.
iznimno analogno.
06:47
We go forward to 2007,
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Idemo naprijed, u 2007.,
06:49
not only had the world's stock of data exploded,
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ne samo da je svjetska riznica
eksplodirala,
eksplodirala,
06:52
but there'd been this massive substitution
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nego se dogodila i ogromna zamjena
06:54
of digital for analog.
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digitalnog za analogno.
06:56
And more important even than that,
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Još važnije je da,
06:58
if you look more carefully at this graph,
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ako pogledate na ovaj graf,
07:00
what you will observe is that about a half
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vidjet ćete da otprilike
07:02
of that digital data
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pola digitalnih podataka
07:04
is information that has an I.P. address.
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su informacije s IP adresom.
07:06
It's on a server or it's on a P.C.
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Na serveru je ili je na računalu.
07:09
But having an I.P. address means that it
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Imati IP adresu znači da
07:11
can be connected to any other data
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može biti spojeno s bilo kojim drugim
podacima
podacima
07:13
that has an I.P. address.
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koji imaju IP adresu.
07:15
It means it becomes possible
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Znači da postaje moguće
07:16
to put together half of the world's knowledge
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složiti pola svjetskog znanja
07:19
in order to see patterns,
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u službu dobivanja uzorka.
07:21
an entirely new thing.
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Potpuno nova stvar.
07:23
If we run the numbers forward to today,
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Ako pogledamo brojeve danas,
07:25
it probably looks something like this.
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izgledat će vjerojatno ovako.
07:27
We're not really sure.
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Nismo točno sigurni.
07:28
If we run the numbers forward to 2020,
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Ako pogledamo brojeve za 2020.,
07:30
we of course have an exact number, courtesy of IDC.
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imamo potpuno točan broj,
zahvaljujući IDC-u.
zahvaljujući IDC-u.
07:33
It's curious that the future is so much
more predictable than the present.
more predictable than the present.
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Zanimljivo je da je budućnost toliko
predvidljivija nego sadašnjost.
predvidljivija nego sadašnjost.
07:37
And what it implies is a hundredfold multiplication
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To implicira da postoji
neizmjerni broj
neizmjerni broj
07:42
in the stock of information that is connected
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na skladištu informacija koje je spojeno
07:45
via an I.P. address.
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putem IP adrese.
07:47
Now, if the number of connections that we can make
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Ako je broj poveznica koje napravimo
07:50
is proportional to the number of pairs of data points,
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proporcionalan broju parova podatkovnih
čvorova,
čvorova,
07:53
a hundredfold multiplication in the quantity of data
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množenje sa sto u broju podataka
07:56
is a ten-thousandfold multiplication
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je množenje sa deset tisuća
07:58
in the number of patterns
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u broju uzoraka
08:00
that we can see in that data,
190
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koje možemo vidjeti u tim podacima.
08:02
this just in the last 10 or 11 years.
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Ovo je samo zadnjih 10 - 11 godina.
08:04
This, I would submit, is a sea change,
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Ovo, rekao bih, je ogromna promjena,
08:07
a profound change in the economics
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duboka promjena u ekonomiji
08:09
of the world that we live in.
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svijeta u kojem živimo.
08:11
The first human genome,
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1164
Prvi ljudski genom,
08:12
that of James Watson,
196
480887
1566
onaj Jamesa Watsona,
08:14
was mapped as the culmination of the
Human Genome Project in the year 2000,
Human Genome Project in the year 2000,
197
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je mapiran kao vrh Projekta ljudkog genoma
u 2000.,
u 2000.,
08:18
and it took about 200 million dollars
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2177
i trebalo je oko 200 milijuna dolara
08:20
and about 10 years of work to map
199
488550
1981
i oko 10 godina rada za mapiranje
08:22
just one person's genomic makeup.
200
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2415
genoma jedne osobe.
08:24
Since then, the costs of mapping
the genome have come down.
the genome have come down.
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2605
Otada, cijene mapiranja genoma su se
smanjile.
smanjile.
08:27
In fact, they've come down in recent years
202
495551
1887
Ustvari, zadnjih godina
08:29
very dramatically indeed,
203
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su se drastično smanjile,
08:31
to the point where the cost
is now below 1,000 dollars,
is now below 1,000 dollars,
204
499112
2446
toliko da je danas cijena ispod
1,000 dolara,
1,000 dolara,
08:33
and it's confidently predicted that by the year 2015
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501558
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i sa sigurnošću se tvrdi da će do 2015.
08:36
it will be below 100 dollars --
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504509
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biti ispod 100 dolara --
08:38
a five or six order of magnitude drop
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3196
pad od 5 ili 6 znamenki
08:41
in the cost of genomic mapping
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509436
1945
u cijeni mapiranja genoma
08:43
in just a 15-year period,
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2423
u samo 15 godina,
08:45
an extraordinary phenomenon.
210
513804
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izniman fenomen.
08:48
Now, in the days when mapping a genome
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U danima kada mapiranje genoma
08:52
cost millions, or even tens of thousands,
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košta milijune ili čak desetke tisuća,
08:55
it was basically a research enterprise.
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523613
1978
u njegovoj osnovi je
istraživačko poduzeće.
istraživačko poduzeće.
08:57
Scientists would gather some representative people,
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525591
2542
Znanstvenici bi skupili reprezentativne
ljude,
ljude,
09:00
and they would see patterns, and they would try
215
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1214
vidjeli bi uzorke i
09:01
and make generalizations about
human nature and disease
human nature and disease
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pokušali naći generalizacije u vezi
ljudske prirode i bolesti
ljudske prirode i bolesti
09:04
from the abstract patterns they find
217
532237
1591
iz apstraktnih uzoraka koje nađu
09:05
from these particular selected individuals.
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533828
3460
kod tih posebno izabranih pojedinaca.
09:09
But when the genome can
be mapped for 100 bucks,
be mapped for 100 bucks,
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2833
No, kada genom može biti mapiran
za 100 dolara,
za 100 dolara,
09:12
99 dollars while you wait,
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2348
99 dolara dok čekate,
09:14
then what happens is, it becomes retail.
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2190
tada se događa da to
postaje maloprodaja.
postaje maloprodaja.
09:16
It becomes above all clinical.
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Postaje iznad svega kliničkog.
09:18
You go the doctor with a cold,
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Dolazite doktoru s prehladom,
09:19
and if he or she hasn't done it already,
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547728
1934
i ako već nisu,
09:21
the first thing they do is map your genome,
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549662
2238
prva stvar koju naprave je da mapiraju
vaš genom
vaš genom
09:23
at which point what they're now doing
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i u tom slučaju
09:25
is not starting from some abstract
knowledge of genomic medicine
knowledge of genomic medicine
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ne počinju iz apstraktnog znanja o
medicini genoma
medicini genoma
09:30
and trying to work out how it applies to you,
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2064
i pokušavaju shvatiti kako to koristiti
na vama
na vama
09:32
but they're starting from your particular genome.
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već počinju iz vašeg genoma.
09:34
Now think of the power of that.
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Razmislite o moći toga.
09:36
Think of where that takes us
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Razmislite kuda nas vodi
09:37
when we can combine genomic data
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kada možemo spojiti podatke iz genoma
09:40
with clinical data
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s kliničkim podacima
09:42
with data about drug interactions
234
570381
1959
s podacima o uzimanim lijekovima
09:44
with the kind of ambient data that devices
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2289
s ambijentalnim podacima koje će uređaji
09:46
like our phone and medical sensors
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kao što su mobiteli i medicinski
09:48
will increasingly be collecting.
237
576388
1858
senzori sve više skupljati.
09:50
Think what happens when we collect all of that data
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2461
Razmislite što se dogodi kada skupimo
sve podatke
sve podatke
09:52
and we can put it together
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1473
i stavimo ih zajedno
09:54
in order to find patterns we wouldn't see before.
240
582180
2488
u cilju pronalaska uzoraka koje inače ne
bismo vidjeli.
bismo vidjeli.
09:56
This, I would suggest, perhaps it will take a while,
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2911
Ovo će, iako će trebati vremena,
09:59
but this will drive a revolution in medicine.
242
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2441
pokrenuti revoluciju u medicini.
10:02
Fabulous, lots of people talk about this.
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590020
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Čudesno, mnogo ljudi priča o ovome.
10:04
But there's one thing that
doesn't get much attention.
doesn't get much attention.
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2439
No jedna stvar nije u centru pažnje.
10:06
How is that model of colossal sharing
245
594779
3284
Kako je taj model kolosalnog dijeljenja
10:10
across all of those kinds of databases
246
598063
2646
preko svih vrsta baza podataka
10:12
compatible with the business models
247
600709
2492
sukladan poslovnim modelima
10:15
of institutions and organizations and corporations
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2614
institucija, organizacija i korporacija
10:17
that are involved in this business today?
249
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2297
koje su uključene u posao danas?
10:20
If your business is based on proprietary data,
250
608112
2776
Ako je vaš posao baziran na vlasničkim
podacima,
podacima,
10:22
if your competitive advantage
is defined by your data,
is defined by your data,
251
610888
3043
ako je vaša natjecateljska prednost
definirana podacima,
definirana podacima,
10:25
how on Earth is that company or is that society
252
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3520
kako će to poduzeće ili to društvo
10:29
in fact going to achieve the value
253
617451
2098
dostići vrijednost
10:31
that's implicit in the technology? They can't.
254
619549
3005
koja je implicirana u tehnologiji?
Ne mogu.
Ne mogu.
10:34
So essentially what's happening here,
255
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2047
Ukratko, što se ovdje događa,
10:36
and genomics is merely one example of this,
256
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2644
a genom je samo jedan primjer ovoga,
10:39
is that technology is driving
257
627245
2314
je da tehnologija predvodi
10:41
the natural scaling of the activity
258
629559
2569
prirodno mjerenje aktivnosti
10:44
beyond the institutional boundaries within which
259
632128
2927
iznad institucijskih granica, unutar kojih
10:47
we have been used to thinking about it,
260
635055
2158
smo naučeni razmišljati,
10:49
and in particular beyond the institutional boundaries
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2163
i specifično iznad institucijskih granica
10:51
in terms of which business strategy
262
639376
2254
u pogledu koja je poslovna strategija
10:53
as a discipline is formulated.
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3455
kao disciplina, formulirana.
10:57
The basic story here is that what used to be
264
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3486
Osnovna priča ovdje je da ono što je bilo
11:00
vertically integrated, oligopolistic competition
265
648571
3662
vertikalno integrirano, oligopolsko
natjecanje
natjecanje
11:04
among essentially similar kinds of competitors
266
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2791
između sličnih vrsta natjecatelja
11:07
is evolving, by one means or another,
267
655024
2459
se razvija, na ovaj ili onaj način,
11:09
from a vertical structure to a horizontal one.
268
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3361
iz vertikalne u horizontalnu strukturu.
11:12
Why is that happening?
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1715
Zašto se to događa?
11:14
It's happening because
transaction costs are plummeting
transaction costs are plummeting
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2505
Događa se jer se troškovi transakcija
srozavaju
srozavaju
11:17
and because scale is polarizing.
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1928
i jer se razmjer polarizira.
11:18
The plummeting of transaction costs
272
666992
1742
Pad troškova transakcija
11:20
weakens the glue that holds value chains together,
273
668734
2638
oslabljuje ljepilo koje drži
lance vrijednosti,
lance vrijednosti,
11:23
and allows them to separate.
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1668
i dopušta im da se odvoje.
11:25
The polarization of scale economies
275
673040
1935
Polarizacija razmjera ekonomije
11:26
towards the very small -- small is beautiful --
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3126
prema vrlo malom - malo je predivno -
11:30
allows for scalable communities
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2668
dopušta zajednicama promjenjive veličine
11:32
to substitute for conventional corporate production.
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3117
da budu zamjena za konvencionalnu
proizvodnju poduzeća.
proizvodnju poduzeća.
11:35
The scaling in the opposite direction,
279
683886
2004
Razmjer u suprotnom pogledu,
11:37
towards things like big data,
280
685890
2033
prema velikim stvarima kao podacima,
11:39
drive the structure of business
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687923
1409
predvodi strukturu posla
11:41
towards the creation of new kinds of institutions
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689332
2723
prema stvaranju novih vrsta institucija
11:44
that can achieve that scale.
283
692055
1978
koje mogu dostići taj razmjer.
11:46
But either way, the typically vertical structure
284
694033
2758
Bilo kako, tipično vertikalna struktura
11:48
gets driven to becoming more horizontal.
285
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3004
prelazi u horizontalnu.
11:51
The logic isn't just about big data.
286
699795
2415
Logika nije valjana samo
oko puno podataka.
oko puno podataka.
11:54
If we were to look, for example,
at the telecommunications industry,
at the telecommunications industry,
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3326
Ako gledamo, primjerice, industriju
telekomunikacija,
telekomunikacija,
11:57
you can tell the same story about fiber optics.
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2375
možete reći istu priču za optička vlakna.
11:59
If we look at the pharmaceutical industry,
289
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2136
Ako gledamo farmacijsku industriju,
12:02
or, for that matter, university research,
290
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1893
ili sveučilišno istraživanje,
12:03
you can say exactly the same story
291
711940
1674
možete reći identičnu priču
12:05
about so-called "big science."
292
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1739
oko takozvane "velike znanosti".
12:07
And in the opposite direction,
293
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1535
U suprotnom smjeru,
12:08
if we look, say, at the energy sector,
294
716888
2197
ako gledamo, recimo, energetski sektor,
12:11
where all the talk is about how households
295
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2860
gdje svi pričaju kako će domaćinstva
12:13
will be efficient producers of green energy
296
721945
3584
biti uspješni proizvođači zelene energije
12:17
and efficient conservers of energy,
297
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2628
i uspješni čuvari energije,
12:20
that is, in fact, the reverse phenomenon.
298
728157
1880
to je obrnuti fenomen.
12:22
That is the fragmentation of scale
299
730037
1870
To je fragmentacija razmjera
12:23
because the very small can substitute
300
731907
2354
jer oni vrlo maleni mogu zamjeniti
12:26
for the traditional corporate scale.
301
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2594
tradicionalne razmjere poduzeća.
12:28
Either way, what we are driven to
302
736855
1791
Bilo kako, ono prema čemu idemo
12:30
is this horizontalization of the structure of industries,
303
738646
3371
je horizontalizacija industrijskih
struktura,
struktura,
12:34
and that implies fundamental changes
304
742017
2590
a to implicira temeljne promjene
12:36
in how we think about strategy.
305
744607
2062
u onome kako razmišljamo o strategiji.
12:38
It means, for example, that we need to think
306
746669
2032
To znači, primjerice, da trebamo
razmišljati
razmišljati
12:40
about strategy as the curation
307
748701
2547
o strategiji kao očuvanju
12:43
of these kinds of horizontal structure,
308
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2645
ovih vrsta horizontalnih struktura,
12:45
where things like business definition
309
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1640
gdje su stvari kao definicija posla
12:47
and even industry definition
310
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1562
ili čak industrije
12:49
are actually the outcomes of strategy,
311
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2802
zapravo ishodi strategije,
12:51
not something that the strategy presupposes.
312
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3181
ne nešto što strategije prethodno
prepostavlja.
prepostavlja.
12:55
It means, for example, we need to work out
313
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3156
Znači da moramo shvatiti
12:58
how to accommodate collaboration
314
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2357
kako istovremeno uskladiti suradnju
13:00
and competition simultaneously.
315
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1866
i natjecanje.
13:02
Think about the genome.
316
770457
1086
Razmislite o genomu.
13:03
We need to accommodate the very large
317
771543
1778
Moramo uskladiti vrlo veliko
13:05
and the very small simultaneously.
318
773321
2135
i vrlo malo istovremeno.
13:07
And we need industry structures
319
775456
1943
I trebamo industrijske strukture
13:09
that will accommodate very,
very different motivations,
very different motivations,
320
777399
2942
koje će uskladiti vrlo različite
motivacije
motivacije
13:12
from the amateur motivations
of people in communities
of people in communities
321
780341
2633
od amaterskih kod ljudi iz zajednica
13:14
to maybe the social motivations
322
782974
1973
do možda socijalnih motivacija
13:16
of infrastructure built by governments,
323
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2336
vladinih infrastruktura,
13:19
or, for that matter, cooperative institutions
324
787283
2625
ili kooperativnih institucija
13:21
built by companies that are otherwise competing,
325
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2492
izgrađenih od poduzeća koje su inače
konkurenti,
konkurenti,
13:24
because that is the only way
that they can get to scale.
that they can get to scale.
326
792400
2994
jer je to jedini način da postignu obujam.
13:27
These kinds of transformations
327
795394
1977
Ove vrste preobrazbi
13:29
render the traditional premises
of business strategy obsolete.
of business strategy obsolete.
328
797371
3725
predstavljaju tradicionalne premise
poslovnih strategija kao zastarjele.
poslovnih strategija kao zastarjele.
13:33
They drive us into a completely new world.
329
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2569
Vode nas u potpuno novi svijet.
13:35
They require us, whether we are
330
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1421
Traže od nas,
gdje god da jesmo,
gdje god da jesmo,
13:37
in the public sector or the private sector,
331
805086
2767
u privatnom ili javnom sektoru,
13:39
to think very fundamentally differently
332
807853
2300
da razmišljamo temeljno drugačije
13:42
about the structure of business,
333
810153
1820
o strukturama posla,
13:43
and, at last, it makes strategy interesting again.
334
811973
3454
i na kraju, to čini strategiju ponovo
zanimljivom.
zanimljivom.
13:47
Thank you.
335
815427
2813
Hvala vam.
13:50
(Applause)
336
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2515
(Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Philip Evans - ConsultantBCG's Philip Evans has a bold prediction for the future of business strategy -- and it starts with Big Data.
Why you should listen
Since the 1970s, business strategy has been dominated by two major theories: Bruce Henderson's idea of increasing returns to scale and experience and Michael Porter's value chain. But now decades later, in the wake of web 2.0, Philip Evans argues that a new force will rule business strategy in the future -- the massive amount of data shared by competing groups.
Evans, a senior partner and managing director at the Boston Consulting Group, is the co-author of Blown to Bits, about how the information economy is bringing the trade-off between "richness and reach" to the forefront of business. Evans is based in Boston.
Philip Evans | Speaker | TED.com