TED2009
Dan Ariely: Our buggy moral code
Dan Ariely o našem ludom moralnom kodu
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Bihevioristički ekonomist Dan Ariely proučava greške u našem moralnom kodu: skrivene razloge zašto mislimo da je OK varati i krasti (ponekad). Pametno koncipirane studije pomažu mu kako bi dokazao da smo predvidljivo iracionalni – i da se na nas može utjecati na načine koje ne možemo dokučiti.
Dan Ariely - Behavioral economist
The dismal science of economics is not as firmly grounded in actual behavior as was once supposed. In "Predictably Irrational," Dan Ariely told us why. Full bio
The dismal science of economics is not as firmly grounded in actual behavior as was once supposed. In "Predictably Irrational," Dan Ariely told us why. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
I want to talk to you today a little bit
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Danas bih vam htio malo govoriti
00:18
about predictable irrationality.
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o predvidljivoj iracionalnosti.
00:21
And my interest in irrational behavior
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Moj interes za iracionalno ponašanje
00:25
started many years ago in the hospital.
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počeo je prije mnogo godina u bolnici.
00:28
I was burned very badly.
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Imao sam teške opekline.
00:32
And if you spend a lot of time in hospital,
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I ako provedete mnogo vremena u bolnici,
00:35
you'll see a lot of types of irrationalities.
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vidjet ćete mnogo vrsta iracionalnosti.
00:38
And the one that particularly bothered me in the burn department
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Jedan koji me osobito smetao u Odjelu za opekline
00:43
was the process by which the nurses took the bandage off me.
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bio je proces kojim su sestre skidale zavoje s mene.
00:48
Now, you must have all taken a Band-Aid off at some point,
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Svi ste jednom skidali flaster
00:50
and you must have wondered what's the right approach.
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i pitali ste se koji je pravi pristup.
00:53
Do you rip it off quickly -- short duration but high intensity --
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Želite li ga otrgnuti brzo – kratko trajanje uz intenzivnu bol –
00:57
or do you take your Band-Aid off slowly --
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ili ga želite skinuti sporo –
00:59
you take a long time, but each second is not as painful --
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dugo trajanje, ali svaka sekunda nije toliko bolna –
01:03
which one of those is the right approach?
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– koji od ta dva pristupa je pravi?
01:06
The nurses in my department thought that the right approach
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Sestre na mom odjelu mislile su da je pravi pristup
01:10
was the ripping one, so they would grab hold and they would rip,
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brzog skidanja zavoja, tako bi ga one zgrabile i naglo otkinule,
01:13
and they would grab hold and they would rip.
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i zgrabile bi i otkinule.
01:15
And because I had 70 percent of my body burned, it would take about an hour.
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S obzirom da sam ima 70% tijela opečeno, to bi trajalo negdje oko sat vremena.
01:19
And as you can imagine,
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Možete zamisliti,
01:22
I hated that moment of ripping with incredible intensity.
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mrzio sam taj trenutak skidanja zavoja uz nevjerojatni intenzitet.
01:26
And I would try to reason with them and say,
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Pokušao sam ih urazumiti i rekao,
01:28
"Why don't we try something else?
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"Zašto ne pokušamo nešto drugo?
01:29
Why don't we take it a little longer --
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Zašto ne bi trajalo malo duže –
01:31
maybe two hours instead of an hour -- and have less of this intensity?"
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možda dva sata umjesto jednog – i bilo manjeg intenziteta boli?"
01:36
And the nurses told me two things.
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Sestre su mi rekle dvije stvari.
01:38
They told me that they had the right model of the patient --
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Rekle su mi da imaju pravi model za pacijenta –
01:42
that they knew what was the right thing to do to minimize my pain --
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da znaju što treba učiniti kako bi umanjile bol –
01:45
and they also told me that the word patient doesn't mean
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također su mi rekle da termin pacijent (strpljiv) ne znači
01:48
to make suggestions or to interfere or ...
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da mogu davati prijedloge ili ometati ili...
01:50
This is not just in Hebrew, by the way.
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I to ne samo na hebrejskom.
01:53
It's in every language I've had experience with so far.
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Već na svakom jeziku kojeg sam iskusio do sada.
01:56
And, you know, there's not much -- there wasn't much I could do,
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Znate, nema puno – nije bilo puno toga što sam mogao napraviti
02:00
and they kept on doing what they were doing.
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i one bi nastavljale raditi po starom modelu.
02:03
And about three years later, when I left the hospital,
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Poslije tri godine, kada sam izašao iz bolnice,
02:05
I started studying at the university.
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počeo sam studirati na sveučilištu.
02:08
And one of the most interesting lessons I learned
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Jedna od najzanimljivijih lekcija koje sam naučio
02:11
was that there is an experimental method
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je ta da postoji eksperimentalna metoda
02:13
that if you have a question you can create a replica of this question
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kojom ako imate pitanje, možete napraviti repliku tog pitanja
02:17
in some abstract way, and you can try to examine this question,
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na neki apstraktni način i možete ispitati to pitanje,
02:21
maybe learn something about the world.
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možda naučite nešto o svijetu.
02:23
So that's what I did.
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To sam i napravio.
02:25
I was still interested
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Još uvijek sam bio zainteresiran
02:26
in this question of how do you take bandages off burn patients.
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pitanjem kako skinuti zavoje sa opečenih pacijenata.
02:28
So originally I didn't have much money,
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Prvotno, nisam imao mnogo novca,
02:31
so I went to a hardware store and I bought a carpenter's vice.
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tako sam otišao u željezariju i kupio škripac.
02:35
And I would bring people to the lab and I would put their finger in it,
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Dovodio bih ljude u laboratorij i stavljao njihove prste u to,
02:39
and I would crunch it a little bit.
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i onda bi ih malo drobio.
02:41
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
02:43
And I would crunch it for long periods and short periods,
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Drobio bih ih kroz duge i kratke periode,
02:46
and pain that went up and pain that went down,
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i uz pojačavanje boli i uz smanjivanje boli,
02:48
and with breaks and without breaks -- all kinds of versions of pain.
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uz pauze i bez pauza – svakakve verzije boli.
02:52
And when I finished hurting people a little bit, I would ask them,
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Kada sam završio ranjavati ljude, pitao bih ih,
02:54
so, how painful was this? Or, how painful was this?
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koliko bolno je bilo? Ili, koliko bolno je bilo ovo?
02:56
Or, if you had to choose between the last two,
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Ili, ako biste mogli birati između zadnja dva,
02:58
which one would you choose?
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koje biste izabrali?
03:00
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
03:03
I kept on doing this for a while.
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Radio sam to neko vrijeme.
03:06
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
03:08
And then, like all good academic projects, I got more funding.
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Tada, kao i svi dobri akademski projekt, dobio sam više sredstava.
03:12
I moved to sounds, electrical shocks --
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Prešao sam na zvukove, elektrošokove –
03:14
I even had a pain suit that I could get people to feel much more pain.
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imao sam čak i odijelo boli u kojem su ljudi osjećali mnogo više boli.
03:19
But at the end of this process,
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Ali na kraju procesa,
03:23
what I learned was that the nurses were wrong.
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naučio sam da su sestre bile u krivu.
03:26
Here were wonderful people with good intentions
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Bili su to prekrasni ljudi sa dobrim namjerama
03:29
and plenty of experience, and nevertheless
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i sa puno iskustva, ali ipak
03:31
they were getting things wrong predictably all the time.
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predvidljivo su griješili cijelo vrijeme.
03:35
It turns out that because we don't encode duration
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Tako je ispalo jer ne kodiramo trajanje
03:38
in the way that we encode intensity,
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na način na koji kodiramo intenzitet,
03:40
I would have had less pain if the duration would have been longer
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bilo bi mi manje bolno da je trajanje bilo duže,
03:44
and the intensity was lower.
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a intenzitet manji.
03:46
It turns out it would have been better to start with my face,
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Ispalo je da bi bilo bolje početi s mojim licem,
03:49
which was much more painful, and move toward my legs,
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koje je bilo najbolnije, i kretati se prema mojim nogama,
03:51
giving me a trend of improvement over time --
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dajući mi osjećaj napretka tijekom vremena –
03:54
that would have been also less painful.
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što bi također bilo manje bolno.
03:55
And it also turns out that it would have been good
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Ispada da bi bilo dobro
03:57
to give me breaks in the middle to kind of recuperate from the pain.
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davati mi pauze u sredini procesa kako bih se malo oporavio od boli.
03:59
All of these would have been great things to do,
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To bi sve bilo jako dobro za napraviti,
04:01
and my nurses had no idea.
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a moje sestre nisu imale ideju o tome.
04:04
And from that point on I started thinking,
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Tada sam počeo razmišljati,
04:05
are the nurses the only people in the world who get things wrong
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jesu li medicinske sestre jedini ljudi na svijetu koji pogrešno odlučuju,
04:08
in this particular decision, or is it a more general case?
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ili je to općenitiji slučaj?
04:11
And it turns out it's a more general case --
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Ispada da je to općenitiji slučaj –
04:13
there's a lot of mistakes we do.
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radimo puno grešaka.
04:16
And I want to give you one example of one of these irrationalities,
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Htio bih vam dati primjer jedne od tih iracionalnosti,
04:21
and I want to talk to you about cheating.
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htio bih vam govoriti i o varanju.
04:24
And the reason I picked cheating is because it's interesting,
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Razlog zbog kojeg sam izabrao varanje je zato što je zanimljivo,
04:26
but also it tells us something, I think,
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ali nam u isto vrijeme i govori nešto, mislim,
04:28
about the stock market situation we're in.
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o situaciji stanja dionica na tržištu u kojoj se nalazimo.
04:31
So, my interest in cheating started
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tako je moj interes za varanje je počeo
04:34
when Enron came on the scene, exploded all of a sudden,
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kada je Enron došao na scenu i iznenada eksplodirao,
04:36
and I started thinking about what is happening here.
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počeo sam razmišljati što se tamo događa.
04:39
Is it the case that there was kind of
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Postoji li tamo samo nekoliko
04:40
a few apples who are capable of doing these things,
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pokvarenih jabuka koje su u stanju učiniti te stvari
04:43
or are we talking a more endemic situation,
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ili govorimo o endemskoj situaciji
04:45
that many people are actually capable of behaving this way?
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gdje su mnogi ljudi u stanju ponašati se na taj način?
04:49
So, like we usually do, I decided to do a simple experiment.
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Kao što inače radimo, odlučio sam napraviti jednostavan eksperiment.
04:53
And here's how it went.
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Evo što sam napravio.
04:54
If you were in the experiment, I would pass you a sheet of paper
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Da ste u eksperimentu, dao bih vam list papira
04:57
with 20 simple math problems that everybody could solve,
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sa 20 jednostavnih matematičkih problema koje svatko može riješiti,
05:01
but I wouldn't give you enough time.
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ali ne bih vam dao dovoljno vremena.
05:03
When the five minutes were over, I would say,
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Kada bi 5 minuta završilo, rekao bih,
05:05
"Pass me the sheets of paper, and I'll pay you a dollar per question."
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"Dodajte mi list papira i platit ću vam dolar po odgovorenom pitanju."
05:08
People did this. I would pay people four dollars for their task --
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Ljudi bi to napravili a ja bih platio 4 dolara za njihov zadatak –
05:12
on average people would solve four problems.
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prosječno bi ljudi riješili 4 problema.
05:14
Other people I would tempt to cheat.
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Druge ljude bih namamio da varaju.
05:17
I would pass their sheet of paper.
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Dodao bih im list papira.
05:18
When the five minutes were over, I would say,
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Kada bi 5 minuta završilo, rekao bih,
05:20
"Please shred the piece of paper.
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"Molim vas potrgajte papir na komadiće.
05:21
Put the little pieces in your pocket or in your backpack,
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Stavite komadiće u džepove ili u ruksak,
05:24
and tell me how many questions you got correctly."
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i recite mi koliko ste pitanja riješili točno."
05:27
People now solved seven questions on average.
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Ljudi su sada „riješili” 7 pitanja prosječno.
05:30
Now, it wasn't as if there was a few bad apples --
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Nije tu bilo nekoliko pokvarenih jabuka –
05:35
a few people cheated a lot.
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nekoliko ljudi koji su varali puno.
05:38
Instead, what we saw is a lot of people who cheat a little bit.
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Umjesto toga, uvidjeli smo da je puno ljudi varalo malo.
05:41
Now, in economic theory,
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U ekonomskoj teoriji,
05:44
cheating is a very simple cost-benefit analysis.
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varanje je vrlo jednostavna analiza troškova i koristi.
05:47
You say, what's the probability of being caught?
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Razmislite, koja je vjerojatnost da budete uhvaćeni?
05:49
How much do I stand to gain from cheating?
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Koliko ću dobiti zbog varanja?
05:52
And how much punishment would I get if I get caught?
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Koliku kaznu ću dobiti ako me uhvate?
05:54
And you weigh these options out --
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Izvažete te opcije –
05:56
you do the simple cost-benefit analysis,
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napravite jednostavnu analizu troškova i koristi,
05:58
and you decide whether it's worthwhile to commit the crime or not.
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odlučite isplati li se počiniti zločin ili ne.
06:01
So, we try to test this.
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Tako smo se odlučili ispitati i to.
06:03
For some people, we varied how much money they could get away with --
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Nekim ljudima mijenjali smo iznos novca koji bi dobili –
06:07
how much money they could steal.
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odnosno koliko novca mogu ukrasti.
06:08
We paid them 10 cents per correct question, 50 cents,
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Platili bismo im 10 centi za točno pitanje, 50 centi,
06:11
a dollar, five dollars, 10 dollars per correct question.
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dolar, pet dolara, 10 dolara za točno pitanje.
06:14
You would expect that as the amount of money on the table increases,
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Očekivali biste da dok se količina ponuđenog novca povećava,
06:18
people would cheat more, but in fact it wasn't the case.
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ljudi će varati više, ali to nije bio slučaj.
06:21
We got a lot of people cheating by stealing by a little bit.
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Dobili smo puno ljudi koji su varali tako što bi ukrali jako malo.
06:24
What about the probability of being caught?
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Što je s vjerojatnošću da budu uhvaćeni?
06:27
Some people shredded half the sheet of paper,
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Neki ljudi su poderali pola lista papira,
06:29
so there was some evidence left.
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tako da je ostao neki dokaz.
06:30
Some people shredded the whole sheet of paper.
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Neki ljudi su poderali cijeli papir.
06:32
Some people shredded everything, went out of the room,
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Neki ljudi su poderali sve, otišli iz sobe
06:35
and paid themselves from the bowl of money that had over 100 dollars.
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i isplatili sebe iz zdjele u kojoj je bilo više od 100 dolara.
06:38
You would expect that as the probability of being caught goes down,
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Očekivali biste da dok se vjerojatnost da budete uhvaćeni smanjuje
06:41
people would cheat more, but again, this was not the case.
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ljudi će varati više, ali opet, to nije bio slučaj.
06:44
Again, a lot of people cheated by just by a little bit,
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Opet, mnogo ljudi je varalo malo
06:47
and they were insensitive to these economic incentives.
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i oni su bili neosjetljivi na te ekonomske poticaje.
06:50
So we said, "If people are not sensitive
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Rekli smo, “Ako ljudi nisu osjetljivi
06:51
to the economic rational theory explanations, to these forces,
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na racionalna ekonomska teorijska objašnjenja, na te sile,
06:56
what could be going on?"
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što se događalo?”
06:59
And we thought maybe what is happening is that there are two forces.
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Možda se događalo to da su postojale dvije sile.
07:02
At one hand, we all want to look at ourselves in the mirror
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U jednu ruku, svi želimo sebe pogledati u ogledalu
07:04
and feel good about ourselves, so we don't want to cheat.
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i osjećati se dobro sami sa sobom, pa ne želimo varati.
07:07
On the other hand, we can cheat a little bit,
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U drugu ruku, možemo varati malo
07:09
and still feel good about ourselves.
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i time ne narušiti osjećaj zadovoljstva samih sobom.
07:11
So, maybe what is happening is that
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Možda se događalo to da
07:12
there's a level of cheating we can't go over,
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postoji razina varanja koju ne možemo prijeći,
07:14
but we can still benefit from cheating at a low degree,
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dakle varanje nam može koristiti na nekom nižem stupnju,
07:18
as long as it doesn't change our impressions about ourselves.
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dokle god to ne mijenjamo naše utiske o nama samima.
07:21
We call this like a personal fudge factor.
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Zovemo to nešto kao osobni čimbenik gluposti.
07:25
Now, how would you test a personal fudge factor?
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Sada, kako biste testirali osobno čimbenik gluposti?
07:29
Initially we said, what can we do to shrink the fudge factor?
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Inicijalno smo rekli, što možemo učiniti da smanjimo čimbenik gluposti?
07:33
So, we got people to the lab, and we said,
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Doveli smo ljude u laboratorij i rekli,
07:35
"We have two tasks for you today."
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“Danas imamo dva zadatka za vas.”
07:37
First, we asked half the people
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Prvo, smo pitali pola ljudi
07:38
to recall either 10 books they read in high school,
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da se sjete 10 knjiga koje su pročitali u srednjoj školi
07:40
or to recall The Ten Commandments,
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ili da se sjete 10 Božjih zapovjedi,
07:43
and then we tempted them with cheating.
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i tada smo ih namamili na varanje.
07:45
Turns out the people who tried to recall The Ten Commandments --
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Ispada kako ljudi koji su se pokušali sjetiti 10 zapovjedi –
07:48
and in our sample nobody could recall all of The Ten Commandments --
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u našem uzorku se nitko nije mogao sjetiti svih 10 zapovjedi –
07:51
but those people who tried to recall The Ten Commandments,
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ali tim ljudima koji su se pokušali sjetiti 10 zapovjedi
07:55
given the opportunity to cheat, did not cheat at all.
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dana je prilika da varaju i oni nisu uopće varali.
07:58
It wasn't that the more religious people --
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Nije da su religiozniji ljudi –
08:00
the people who remembered more of the Commandments -- cheated less,
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oni ljudi koji su se sjetili više zapovjedi – varali manje,
08:01
and the less religious people --
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a da su manje religiozni ljudi –
08:03
the people who couldn't remember almost any Commandments --
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ljudi koji se nisu mogli sjetiti skoro nijedne zapovjedi –
08:04
cheated more.
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varali više.
08:06
The moment people thought about trying to recall The Ten Commandments,
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U trenutku kada su se ljudi pokušali sjetiti 10 zapovjedi,
08:10
they stopped cheating.
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prestali bi varati.
08:11
In fact, even when we gave self-declared atheists
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U stvari, čak i kada smo dali samo-prozvanim ateistima
08:13
the task of swearing on the Bible and we give them a chance to cheat,
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zadatak da se zakunu na Bibliju i dali im priliku da varaju,
08:17
they don't cheat at all.
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nisu varali uopće.
08:21
Now, Ten Commandments is something that is hard
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10 zapovjedi je nešto što je jako teško
08:23
to bring into the education system, so we said,
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unijeti u obrazovni sustav, pa smo rekli,
08:25
"Why don't we get people to sign the honor code?"
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“Zašto ne bismo rekli ljudima da potpišu kodeks časti?”
08:27
So, we got people to sign,
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Doveli smo ljude na potpišu,
08:29
"I understand that this short survey falls under the MIT Honor Code."
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“Razumijem da ova kratka anketa spada u MIT kodeks časti.”
08:33
Then they shredded it. No cheating whatsoever.
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Tada bi poderali tu izjavu. I dalje nije bilo varanja.
08:36
And this is particularly interesting,
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To je posebno zanimljivo,
08:37
because MIT doesn't have an honor code.
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zato što MIT nema kodeks časti.
08:39
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
08:44
So, all this was about decreasing the fudge factor.
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Sve smo to napravili samo da bismo smanjili čimbenik gluposti.
08:48
What about increasing the fudge factor?
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Što je s povećanjem čimbenika gluposti?
08:51
The first experiment -- I walked around MIT
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Prvi eksperiment – hodao sam po MIT-u
08:53
and I distributed six-packs of Cokes in the refrigerators --
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i raspodijelio pakiranja Cole od po 6 limenki po hladnjacima –
08:56
these were common refrigerators for the undergrads.
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to su bili obični hladnjaci za prodaju pića na fakultetima.
08:58
And I came back to measure what we technically call
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I došao sam izmjeriti nešto što tehnički nazivamo
09:01
the half-lifetime of Coke -- how long does it last in the refrigerators?
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poluživot Cole, odnosno koliko je ostala u hladnjaku?
09:05
As you can expect it doesn't last very long; people take it.
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Kao što možete pretpostaviti nije ostala jako dugo. Ljudi su ih uzimali.
09:08
In contrast, I took a plate with six one-dollar bills,
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Za razliku, uzeo sam tanjur sa šest novčanica od jednog dolara
09:12
and I left those plates in the same refrigerators.
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i ostavio te tanjure u istim hladnjacima.
09:15
No bill ever disappeared.
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Niti jedna novčanica nije nestala.
09:16
Now, this is not a good social science experiment,
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To nije dobar eksperiment društvenih znanosti,
09:19
so to do it better I did the same experiment
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pa kako bih to bolje napravio učinio sam isti eksperiment
09:22
as I described to you before.
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na način koji sam vam opisao ranije.
09:24
A third of the people we passed the sheet, they gave it back to us.
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Prvoj trećini ljudi smo dali papir, koji su nam vratili.
09:27
A third of the people we passed it to, they shredded it,
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Drugoj trećini ljudi smo dali papir i nakon što su ga poderali,
09:30
they came to us and said,
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došli su do nas i rekli
09:31
"Mr. Experimenter, I solved X problems. Give me X dollars."
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"Gospodine Eksperimentatoru, riješio sam X problema. Dajte mi X dolara."
09:34
A third of the people, when they finished shredding the piece of paper,
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Zadnja trećina ljudi, kada bi poderala papir,
09:37
they came to us and said,
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došla bi do nas i rekla,
09:39
"Mr Experimenter, I solved X problems. Give me X tokens."
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"Gospodine Eksperimentatoru, riješio sam X problema. Dajte mi X žetona."
09:45
We did not pay them with dollars; we paid them with something else.
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Tim ljudima nismo platili u dolarima. Platili smo im s nečim drugim.
09:48
And then they took the something else, they walked 12 feet to the side,
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I oni bi uzeli te žetone, odšetali se 3,5 metra u stranu
09:51
and exchanged it for dollars.
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i razmijenili žetone za dolare.
09:53
Think about the following intuition.
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Razmišljajte o sljedećoj intuiciji.
09:55
How bad would you feel about taking a pencil from work home,
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Koliko biste se loše osjećali kada biste ponijeli doma olovku s posla,
09:58
compared to how bad would you feel
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uspoređujući koliko biste se loše osjećali
10:00
about taking 10 cents from a petty cash box?
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kada biste uzeli 10 centi iz blagajne?
10:02
These things feel very differently.
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Te stvari se osjećaju bitno drugačije.
10:05
Would being a step removed from cash for a few seconds
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Bi li to što ste udaljeni od gotovine nekoliko sekundi
10:08
by being paid by token make a difference?
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time što ste plaćeni žetonom, napravilo razliku?
10:11
Our subjects doubled their cheating.
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Naši subjekti su udvostručili njihovo varanje.
10:13
I'll tell you what I think
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Za minutu ću vam reći što mislim
10:15
about this and the stock market in a minute.
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o ovom i o tržištu dionica.
10:18
But this did not solve the big problem I had with Enron yet,
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Ali ovo nije riješilo veliki problem koji sam imao s Enronom,
10:22
because in Enron, there's also a social element.
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zato jer u Enronu postoji i društveni element.
10:25
People see each other behaving.
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Ljudi vide jedni druge kako se ponašaju.
10:26
In fact, every day when we open the news
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U stvari, svaki dan kada otvorimo novine
10:28
we see examples of people cheating.
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vidimo primjere ljudskog varanja.
10:30
What does this cause us?
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Što to uzrokuje u nama?
10:33
So, we did another experiment.
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Napravili smo eksperiment.
10:34
We got a big group of students to be in the experiment,
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Veliku grupa studenata je sudjelovala u tom eksperimentu
10:37
and we prepaid them.
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i platili smo im unaprijed.
10:38
So everybody got an envelope with all the money for the experiment,
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Svatko je dobio omotnicu s novcem za eksperiment,
10:41
and we told them that at the end, we asked them
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rekli smo im da nam na kraju
10:43
to pay us back the money they didn't make. OK?
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vrate novac koji nisu zaradili. OK?
10:47
The same thing happens.
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Ista se stvar dogodila.
10:48
When we give people the opportunity to cheat, they cheat.
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Kada damo ljudima priliku da varaju, oni varaju.
10:50
They cheat just by a little bit, all the same.
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Varali su malo, ali varali su.
10:53
But in this experiment we also hired an acting student.
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U ovom eksperimentu unajmili smo studenta glumca.
10:56
This acting student stood up after 30 seconds, and said,
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Taj student glumac je ustao nakon 30 sekundi i rekao,
11:00
"I solved everything. What do I do now?"
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“Ja sam riješio sve. Što da sada radim?”
11:03
And the experimenter said, "If you've finished everything, go home.
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Čovjek koji je vršio eksperiment rekao je, “Ako ste sve završili, idite kući.”
11:07
That's it. The task is finished."
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To je to. Zadatak je završen.
11:08
So, now we had a student -- an acting student --
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Tamo smo imali studenta koji je glumio
11:12
that was a part of the group.
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da je dio grupe.
11:14
Nobody knew it was an actor.
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Nitko nije znao da je to glumac.
11:16
And they clearly cheated in a very, very serious way.
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I očito je varao jako, jako ozbiljno.
11:20
What would happen to the other people in the group?
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Što će se dogoditi ostalim ljudima u grupi?
11:23
Will they cheat more, or will they cheat less?
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Hoće li pod utjecaj glumca varati više ili će varati manje?
11:26
Here is what happens.
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Evo što se dogodilo.
11:28
It turns out it depends on what kind of sweatshirt they're wearing.
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Ispada da ovisi o tome kakvu su majicu glumci nosili.
11:32
Here is the thing.
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Evo u čemu je stvar.
11:34
We ran this at Carnegie Mellon and Pittsburgh.
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Eksperiment smo obavljali na Carnegie Mellonu i Pittsburghu.
11:37
And at Pittsburgh there are two big universities,
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I na Pittsburghu su dva velika sveučilišta,
11:39
Carnegie Mellon and University of Pittsburgh.
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Carnegie Mellon i Sveučilište Pittsburgh.
11:42
All of the subjects sitting in the experiment
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Svi sudionici eksperimenta su bili
11:44
were Carnegie Mellon students.
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studenti s Carnegie Mellona.
11:46
When the actor who was getting up was a Carnegie Mellon student --
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Kada je glumac koji se ustao bio student Carnegie Mellon –
11:50
he was actually a Carnegie Mellon student --
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zapravo i jest bio Carnegie Mellon student –
11:52
but he was a part of their group, cheating went up.
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a bio je dio njihove grupe, varanje se povećalo.
11:56
But when he actually had a University of Pittsburgh sweatshirt,
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Ali kada je glumac imao majicu Sveučilišta Pittsburgh,
12:00
cheating went down.
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varanje se smanjilo.
12:02
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
12:05
Now, this is important, because remember,
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Ovo je važno, zapamtite,
12:08
when the moment the student stood up,
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trenutak u kojem se student ustao,
12:10
it made it clear to everybody that they could get away with cheating,
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postalo je svima jasno da će se izvući s varanjem,
12:13
because the experimenter said,
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zašto što je čovjek koji vrši eksperimente rekao,
12:15
"You've finished everything. Go home," and they went with the money.
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“Sve ste završili. Idite kući,” i otišli su sa svojim novcem.
12:17
So it wasn't so much about the probability of being caught again.
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Nije se više radilo o tome koliko je vjerojatno da ih uhvate.
12:20
It was about the norms for cheating.
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Radilo se o pravilima varanja.
12:23
If somebody from our in-group cheats and we see them cheating,
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Ako netko iz naše grupe vara i vidimo ga da vara,
12:26
we feel it's more appropriate, as a group, to behave this way.
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te mislimo kako je to prikladno onda se i mi kao grupa ponašamo isto tako.
12:30
But if it's somebody from another group, these terrible people --
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Ali ako vara netko iz druge grupe, ti grozni ljudi --
12:32
I mean, not terrible in this --
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mislim, nisu oni grozni --
12:34
but somebody we don't want to associate ourselves with,
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ali netko vara s kim se ne želimo povezati,
12:36
from another university, another group,
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netko sa drugog sveučilišta, iz druge grupe,
12:38
all of a sudden people's awareness of honesty goes up --
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odjednom nam se povisi svijest o poštenju –
12:41
a little bit like The Ten Commandments experiment --
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nešto slično kao eksperiment sa 10 zapovijedi –
12:43
and people cheat even less.
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ljudi varaju čak i manje.
12:47
So, what have we learned from this about cheating?
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Što smo naučili iz ovoga o varanju?
12:51
We've learned that a lot of people can cheat.
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Naučili smo da mnogo ljudi može varati.
12:54
They cheat just by a little bit.
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Oni varaju samo malo.
12:57
When we remind people about their morality, they cheat less.
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Kada podsjetimo ljude o njihovoj moralnosti, oni varaju manje.
13:01
When we get bigger distance from cheating,
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Kada se napravimo veću distancu od varanja,
13:04
from the object of money, for example, people cheat more.
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od objekta novca na primjer, ljudi varaju više.
13:08
And when we see cheating around us,
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I kada vidimo varanje oko nas,
13:10
particularly if it's a part of our in-group, cheating goes up.
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osobito u našoj grupi, varanje se povećava.
13:14
Now, if we think about this in terms of the stock market,
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Kada razmislimo o ovom u okviru tržišta dionica,
13:17
think about what happens.
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razmislite što se dogodi.
13:18
What happens in a situation when you create something
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Što se dogodi u situaciji kada kreirate nešto
13:21
where you pay people a lot of money
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gdje ljudima platite puno novca
13:23
to see reality in a slightly distorted way?
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kako bi vidjeli stvarnost na neznatno iskrivljen način?
13:26
Would they not be able to see it this way?
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Neće li oni biti u mogućnosti vidjeti stvari na isti način?
13:29
Of course they would.
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Naravno da bi mogli.
13:30
What happens when you do other things,
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Što se dogodi kada radite druge stvari,
13:31
like you remove things from money?
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poput toga da odvojite stvari od novca?
13:33
You call them stock, or stock options, derivatives,
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Zovete ih dionice, ili opcije, derivati,
13:36
mortgage-backed securities.
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vrijednosnice.
13:37
Could it be that with those more distant things,
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Može li biti da će uz te udaljene stvari,
13:40
it's not a token for one second,
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nisu to žetoni na sekundu,
13:42
it's something that is many steps removed from money
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to je nešto što je mnogo koraka odvojeno od novca
13:44
for a much longer time -- could it be that people will cheat even more?
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u duljem vremenu – može li biti da će ljudi varati još više?
13:48
And what happens to the social environment
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I što se događa sa društvenim okruženjem
13:50
when people see other people behave around them?
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kada ljudi vide druge ljude kako se ponašaju?
13:53
I think all of those forces worked in a very bad way
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Mislim kako sve te sile zajedno djeluju na jako loš način
13:57
in the stock market.
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na tržište dionica.
13:59
More generally, I want to tell you something
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Općenitije, želim vam nešto reći
14:02
about behavioral economics.
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o biheviorističkoj ekonomiji.
14:05
We have many intuitions in our life,
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Imamo mnogo intuicija u životu
14:09
and the point is that many of these intuitions are wrong.
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i stvar je u tome da je velik broj tih intuicija krivo.
14:12
The question is, are we going to test those intuitions?
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Pitanje je, hoćemo li testirati te intuicije?
14:15
We can think about how we're going to test this intuition
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Možemo razmisliti o tome kako ćemo testirati te intuicije
14:17
in our private life, in our business life,
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u našem privatnom i poslovnom životu,
14:19
and most particularly when it goes to policy,
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a osobito kada razmišljamo o poslovnim politikama,
14:22
when we think about things like No Child Left Behind,
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kada se sjetimo akcija poput "Nijedno dijete neće biti ostavljeno",
14:25
when you create new stock markets, when you create other policies --
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kada stvarate nova tržišta dionica, kada stvarate druge politike poput
14:28
taxation, health care and so on.
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porezne, zdravstvene skrbi i tako dalje.
14:31
And the difficulty of testing our intuition
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Teškoća u testiranju vlastite intuicije
14:33
was the big lesson I learned
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bila je velika lekcija koju sam naučio
14:35
when I went back to the nurses to talk to them.
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kada sam se vratio razgovarati s medicinskim sestrama.
14:37
So I went back to talk to them
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Vratio sam se razgovarati s njima
14:39
and tell them what I found out about removing bandages.
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i rekao im što sam saznao o skidanju zavoja.
14:42
And I learned two interesting things.
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Naučio sam dvije zanimljive stvari.
14:44
One was that my favorite nurse, Ettie,
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Kao prvo moja omiljena sestra, Ettie,
14:46
told me that I did not take her pain into consideration.
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mi je rekla kako nisam stavio u razmatranje i njezinu bol.
14:50
She said, "Of course, you know, it was very painful for you.
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Rekla je, “Naravno, znaš, bilo je veoma bolno za tebe.
14:52
But think about me as a nurse,
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Ali misli na mene kao sestru,
14:54
taking, removing the bandages of somebody I liked,
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koja kida zavoje nekome tko joj je drag,
14:56
and had to do it repeatedly over a long period of time.
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i mora to stalno raditi kroz duži period.
14:59
Creating so much torture was not something that was good for me, too."
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Spoznaja da uzrokujem bol nije niti dobra za mene.”
15:02
And she said maybe part of the reason was it was difficult for her.
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I rekla je, možda je dio razloga bio činjenica što je to teško i za nju.
15:07
But it was actually more interesting than that, because she said,
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Međutim bilo je zanimljivije od toga, jer je rekla,
15:10
"I did not think that your intuition was right.
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"Nisam mislila da je tvoja intuicija prava.
15:15
I felt my intuition was correct."
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Osjećala sam kako je moja intuicija točna."
15:16
So, if you think about all of your intuitions,
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Ako razmislite o svim svojim intuicijama,
15:18
it's very hard to believe that your intuition is wrong.
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teško je povjerovati da je vaša intuicija loša.
15:22
And she said, "Given the fact that I thought my intuition was right ..." --
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Rekla je, "Uzimajući u obzir kako sam mislila da je moja intuicija točna..." –
15:25
she thought her intuition was right --
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mislila je da je njena intuicija točna i
15:27
it was very difficult for her to accept doing a difficult experiment
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bilo joj je jako teško napraviti teški eksperiment
15:32
to try and check whether she was wrong.
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kako bi provjerila je li u krivu.
15:34
But in fact, this is the situation we're all in all the time.
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U stvari, ovo je situacija u kojoj smo svi mi cijelo vrijeme.
15:38
We have very strong intuitions about all kinds of things --
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Imamo vrlo snažne intuicije o svim stvarima –
15:41
our own ability, how the economy works,
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našoj sposobnosti, kako ekonomija radi,
15:44
how we should pay school teachers.
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kako bismo platili učitelje u školi.
15:46
But unless we start testing those intuitions,
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Ali dok ne počnemo testirati te intuicije,
15:49
we're not going to do better.
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nećemo početi bolje raditi.
15:51
And just think about how better my life would have been
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Razmislite samo kako bi moj život bio bolji samo
15:53
if these nurses would have been willing to check their intuition,
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da su sestre htjele ispitati svoju intuiciju
15:55
and how everything would have been better
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i kako bi sve bilo bolje da
15:56
if we just start doing more systematic experimentation of our intuitions.
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počnemo raditi sustavnije eksperimente naše intuicije.
16:01
Thank you very much.
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Hvala vam puno.
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Dan Ariely - Behavioral economistThe dismal science of economics is not as firmly grounded in actual behavior as was once supposed. In "Predictably Irrational," Dan Ariely told us why.
Why you should listen
Dan Ariely is a professor of psychology and behavioral economics at Duke University and a founding member of the Center for Advanced Hindsight. He is the author of the bestsellers Predictably Irrational, The Upside of Irrationality, and The Honest Truth About Dishonesty -- as well as the TED Book Payoff: The Hidden Logic that Shapes Our Motivations.
Through his research and his (often amusing and unorthodox) experiments, he questions the forces that influence human behavior and the irrational ways in which we often all behave.
Dan Ariely | Speaker | TED.com