TEDxTC
Jonathan Foley: The other inconvenient truth
Džonatan Foli (Jonathan Foley): Druga neprijatna istina
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Vrtoglava potražnja za hranom znači da je poljoprivreda postala najveći pokretač klimatske promene, gubitka biodiverziteta i uništenja čovekove okoline. Na TEDxTC Džonatan Foli prikazuje zašto moramo bezuslovno da počnemo sa "zemljokulturom" - proizvodnjom hrane za celu planetu. (Snimljeno na TEDxTC.)
Jonathan Foley - Professor
Jonathan Foley studies complex environmental systems and their affects on society. His computer models have shown the deep impact agriculture is having on our planet. Full bio
Jonathan Foley studies complex environmental systems and their affects on society. His computer models have shown the deep impact agriculture is having on our planet. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
Tonight, I want to have a conversation about
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Večeras želim da razgovaramo
00:14
this incredible global issue
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o neverovatnom svetskom problemu
00:16
that's at the intersection of land use, food and environment,
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gde se prožimaju upotreba zemljišta,
hrana i okruženje,
hrana i okruženje,
00:21
something we can all relate to,
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nešto, što se tiče svih nas
00:22
and what I've been calling the other inconvenient truth.
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i što sam ja nazvao
drugom neprijatnom istinom.
drugom neprijatnom istinom.
00:25
But first, I want to take you on a little journey.
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Prvo, želim da vas povedem
na jedno kratko putovanje.
na jedno kratko putovanje.
00:28
Let's first visit our planet, but at night,
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Hajde da posetimo našu planetu,
ali noću
ali noću
00:31
and from space.
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i iz svemira.
00:33
This is what our planet looks like from outer space
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Ovako izgleda naša planeta
iz svemira noću,
iz svemira noću,
00:36
at nighttime, if you were to take a satellite and travel
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kada biste satelitom putovali oko nje.
00:38
around the planet. And the thing you would notice first,
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Ono što biste, naravno, prvo zapazili,
00:41
of course, is how dominant the human presence
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to je, koliko je dominantno
prisustvo ljudi
prisustvo ljudi
00:44
on our planet is.
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na našoj planeti.
00:46
We see cities, we see oil fields,
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Vidimo gradove, naftna polja,
00:49
you can even make out fishing fleets in the sea,
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možemo čak da razaznamo
ribarske flote na moru,
ribarske flote na moru,
00:52
that we are dominating much of our planet,
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mnogo dominiramo na planeti,
00:54
and mostly through the use of energy
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to se vidi uglavnom
po korišćenju energije noću,
po korišćenju energije noću,
00:56
that we see here at night.
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što ovde vidimo.
00:58
But let's go back and drop it a little deeper
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Hajde da se vratimo
i spustimo se malo niže
i spustimo se malo niže
01:00
and look during the daytime.
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i pogledajmo šta se dešava danju.
01:02
What we see during the day is our landscapes.
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Danju vidimo pejzaže.
01:06
This is part of the Amazon Basin, a place called Rondônia
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Ovo je deo basena Amazon,
mesto se zove Rondonija,
mesto se zove Rondonija,
01:09
in the south-center part of the Brazilian Amazon.
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u južno-centralnom delu
brazilskog Amazona.
brazilskog Amazona.
01:13
If you look really carefully in the upper right-hand corner,
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Ako pažljivo pogledate
u gornji desni ugao,
u gornji desni ugao,
01:16
you're going to see a thin white line,
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videćete tanku, belu liniju,
01:18
which is a road that was built in the 1970s.
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to je u stvari put
izgrađen sedamdesetih godina.
izgrađen sedamdesetih godina.
01:22
If we come back to the same place in 2001,
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Ako se vratimo na isto mesto,
ali 2001.,
ali 2001.,
01:25
what we're going to find is that these roads
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naići ćemo na to, da se ovi putevi
01:27
spurt off more roads, and more roads after that,
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razgranavaju na sve više i više puteva,
01:31
at the end of which is a small clearing in the rainforest
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na čijem kraju je raščišćena prašuma,
01:34
where there are going to be a few cows.
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na mestu gde je par goveda.
01:37
These cows are used for beef. We're going to eat these cows.
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Goveda se koriste zbog mesa.
Poješćemo ih.
Poješćemo ih.
01:40
And these cows are eaten basically in South America,
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Ova goveda se uglavnom jedu
u Južnoj Americi,
u Južnoj Americi,
01:43
in Brazil and Argentina. They're not being shipped up here.
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Brazilu i Argentini.
Ne dostavljaju se ovamo.
Ne dostavljaju se ovamo.
01:45
But this kind of fishbone pattern of deforestation
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Samo, ovaj model deforestacije
koji se zove riblja kost,
koji se zove riblja kost,
01:48
is something we notice a lot of around the tropics,
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je nešto što zapažamo
u tropskim područjima,
u tropskim područjima,
01:51
especially in this part of the world.
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naročito u ovom delu sveta.
01:53
If we go a little bit further south in our little tour of the world,
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Ako ovu našu malu turu oko sveta
produžimo južnije,
produžimo južnije,
01:56
we can go to the Bolivian edge of the Amazon,
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možemo da odemo
do bolivijske ivice Amazona,
do bolivijske ivice Amazona,
01:59
here also in 1975, and if you look really carefully,
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ovde 1975.,
ako zaista pažljivo gledate,
ako zaista pažljivo gledate,
02:03
there's a thin white line through that kind of seam,
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postoji tanka, bela linija na rubu
02:06
and there's a lone farmer out there
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i tu je usamljeni farmer
02:08
in the middle of the primeval jungle.
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nasred prvobitne prašume.
02:10
Let's come back again a few years later, here in 2003,
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Hajde da se ponovo vratimo u 2003.
02:15
and we'll see that that landscape actually looks
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i videćemo da pejzaž više liči
02:17
a lot more like Iowa than it does like a rainforest.
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na Ajovu nego na prašumu.
02:20
In fact, what you're seeing here are soybean fields.
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U stvari, ovde se vide polja soje.
02:24
These soybeans are being shipped to Europe and to China
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Soja se isporučuje u Evropu i Kinu
02:27
as animal feed, especially after the mad cow disease scare
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kao stočna hrana, naročito posle straha
od bolesti ludih krava
od bolesti ludih krava
02:30
about a decade ago, where we don't want to feed animals
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pre oko jedne decenije.
Ne želimo hraniti životinje
Ne želimo hraniti životinje
02:33
animal protein anymore, because that can transmit disease.
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životinjskim proteinima,
jer to može da prenosi bolest.
jer to može da prenosi bolest.
02:36
Instead, we want to feed them more vegetable proteins.
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Umesto toga, želimo da ih
hranimo biljnim proteinima.
hranimo biljnim proteinima.
02:39
So soybeans have really exploded,
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Došlo je do ekspanzije soje,
02:41
showing how trade and globalization are
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pokazujući da su trgovina
i globalizacija
i globalizacija
02:44
really responsible for the connections to rainforests
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zaista odgovorni za vezu
između prašuma i Amazona
između prašuma i Amazona
02:47
and the Amazon -- an incredibly strange
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- neverovatno čudan i međusobno povezan
svet koji imamo danas.
svet koji imamo danas.
02:49
and interconnected world that we have today.
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02:52
Well, again and again, what we find as we look
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Ono što iznova vidimo,
dok posmatramo svet
dok posmatramo svet
02:54
around the world in our little tour of the world
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u ovoj maloj turi oko sveta,
02:56
is that landscape after landscape after landscape
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to je da su pejzaži, jedan za drugim
03:00
have been cleared and altered for growing food
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iskrčeni i izmenjeni
zbog proizvodnje hrane
zbog proizvodnje hrane
03:03
and other crops.
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i drugih useva.
03:05
So one of the questions we've been asking is,
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Jedno od pitanja koje postavljamo
03:08
how much of the world is used to grow food,
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je koliko se sveta koristi
za proizvodnju hrane,
za proizvodnju hrane,
03:10
and where is it exactly, and how can we change that
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gde se to tačno nalazi
i kako to možemo promeniti
i kako to možemo promeniti
03:12
into the future, and what does it mean?
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u budućnosti i šta to znači?
03:15
Well, our team has been looking at this on a global scale,
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Naš tim proučava ovo
u svetskoj razmeri,
u svetskoj razmeri,
03:18
using satellite data and ground-based data kind of to track
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koristeći podatke sa satelita,
kao i sa terena, da bismo pratili
kao i sa terena, da bismo pratili
03:21
farming on a global scale.
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poljoprivredu u globalnoj razmeri.
03:23
And this is what we found, and it's startling.
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Ono što smo saznali je potresno.
03:27
This map shows the presence of agriculture
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Ova karta pokazuje
prisutnost poljoprivrede
prisutnost poljoprivrede
03:29
on planet Earth.
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na planeti Zemlji.
03:32
The green areas are the areas we use to grow crops,
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Zelena područja su ona
na kojima gajimo useve,
na kojima gajimo useve,
03:35
like wheat or soybeans or corn or rice or whatever.
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kao što su soja ili kukuruz
ili pirinač ili nešto drugo.
ili pirinač ili nešto drugo.
03:38
That's 16 million square kilometers' worth of land.
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To je 16 miliona
kvadratnih kilometara zemljišta.
kvadratnih kilometara zemljišta.
03:42
If you put it all together in one place,
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Kada bi to skupili na jedno mesto,
03:44
it'd be the size of South America.
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to bi bilo veličine Južne Amerike.
03:47
The second area, in brown, is the world's pastures
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Drugo, braon područje,
to su pašnjaci sveta
to su pašnjaci sveta
03:49
and rangelands, where our animals live.
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i zemljište pod vegetacijom,
gde žive životinje.
gde žive životinje.
03:52
That area's about 30 million square kilometers,
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To područje je oko 30 miliona
kvadratnih kilometara
kvadratnih kilometara
03:54
or about an Africa's worth of land,
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ili kao otprilike zemljište Afrike,
03:57
a huge amount of land, and it's the best land, of course,
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ogromna količina zemljišta,
najboljeg zemljišta naravno,
najboljeg zemljišta naravno,
04:00
is what you see. And what's left is, like,
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evo, to vidite.
Preostalo je, na primer,
Preostalo je, na primer,
04:02
the middle of the Sahara Desert, or Siberia,
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središnji deo pustinje Sahare
ili Sibir
ili Sibir
04:04
or the middle of a rain forest.
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ili središte prašume.
04:06
We're using a planet's worth of land already.
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Već sada koristimo dragoceno
zemljište planete.
zemljište planete.
04:09
If we look at this carefully, we find it's about 40 percent
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Pažljivim posmatranjem shvatićemo
da je oko 40 posto
da je oko 40 posto
04:12
of the Earth's land surface is devoted to agriculture,
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površine Zemlje posvećeno poljoprivredi
04:15
and it's 60 times larger
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i to je 60 puta veće
04:17
than all the areas we complain about,
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od svih područja koja krivimo
04:20
our suburban sprawl and our cities where we mostly live.
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za širenje naših predgrađa
i gradova u kojima živimo.
i gradova u kojima živimo.
04:23
Half of humanity lives in cities today,
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Polovina čovečanstva danas
živi u gradovima,
živi u gradovima,
04:26
but a 60-times-larger area is used to grow food.
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a za proizvodnju hrane koristi se
60 puta veće područje od gradskih.
60 puta veće područje od gradskih.
04:30
So this is an amazing kind of result,
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Ovaj neverovatan rezultat
04:32
and it really shocked us when we looked at that.
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nas je zaista šokirao,
kada smo ga videli.
kada smo ga videli.
04:34
So we're using an enormous amount of land for agriculture,
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Dakle, neverovatno mnogo zemljišta
koristimo za poljoprivredu,
koristimo za poljoprivredu,
04:37
but also we're using a lot of water.
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a koristimo i mnogo vode.
04:39
This is a photograph flying into Arizona,
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Ova fotografija je iz Arizone
04:42
and when you look at it, you're like,
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i kada je pogledate,
pomislite: "Šta se tu proizvodi?".
pomislite: "Šta se tu proizvodi?".
04:43
"What are they growing here?" It turns out
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04:44
they're growing lettuce in the middle of the desert
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Ispostavlja se, da se proizvodi
zelena salata usred pustinje
zelena salata usred pustinje
04:47
using water sprayed on top.
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i zaliva se odozgo.
04:49
Now, the irony is, it's probably sold
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Ironija je, da se ona
verovatno prodaje
verovatno prodaje
04:51
in our supermarket shelves in the Twin Cities.
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na policama naših supermarketa
u Mineapolisu i Sent Polu.
u Mineapolisu i Sent Polu.
04:53
But what's really interesting is, this water's got to come
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Ali ono što je zaista zanimljivo,
to je da ova voda mora da dođe
to je da ova voda mora da dođe
04:56
from some place, and it comes from here,
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sa nekog mesta, a dolazi odavde,
04:58
the Colorado River in North America.
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iz reke Kolorado u Severnoj Americi.
05:01
Well, the Colorado on a typical day in the 1950s,
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Evo, Kolorada jednog
običnog dana pedesetih godina,
običnog dana pedesetih godina,
05:04
this is just, you know, not a flood, not a drought,
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nije ni poplava, ni suša,
05:06
kind of an average day, it looks something like this.
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nego jedan prosečan dan
koji izgleda ovako.
koji izgleda ovako.
05:09
But if we come back today, during a normal condition
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Ako se vratimo u sadašnjost,
u normalne uslove,
u normalne uslove,
05:11
to the exact same location, this is what's left.
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na upravo istu lokaciju,
evo šta je preostalo.
evo šta je preostalo.
05:15
The difference is mainly irrigating the desert for food,
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Razlika je zbog zalivanja pustinje,
da bi se proizvela hrana
da bi se proizvela hrana
05:18
or maybe golf courses in Scottsdale, you take your pick.
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ili zbog zalivanja golf terena,
u Skotsdejlu, izaberite.
u Skotsdejlu, izaberite.
05:22
Well, this is a lot of water, and again, we're mining water
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Ovo je mnogo vode
i ponovo crpimo vodu
i ponovo crpimo vodu
05:24
and using it to grow food,
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zbog proizvodnje hrane.
05:27
and today, if you travel down further down the Colorado,
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Kada danas putujete dalje
niz reku Kolorado,
niz reku Kolorado,
05:30
it dries up completely and no longer flows into the ocean.
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videćete da je potpuno presušila
i više se ne uliva u okean.
i više se ne uliva u okean.
05:33
We've literally consumed an entire river in North America
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Potrošili smo, bukvalno,
celu jednu reku u Severnoj Americi,
celu jednu reku u Severnoj Americi,
05:36
for irrigation.
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na zalivanje.
05:38
Well, that's not even the worst example in the world.
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Ovo nije najgori primer na svetu.
05:40
This probably is: the Aral Sea.
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Ali ovo jeste: Aralsko jezero.
05:43
Now, a lot you will remember this from your geography classes.
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Setićete ga se sa časova geografije.
05:46
This is in the former Soviet Union
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Ono je u bivšem Sovjetskom Savezu,
05:48
in between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan,
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između Kazahstana i Uzbekistana,
05:50
one of the great inland seas of the world.
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jedno od velikih mora u unutrašnjosti.
05:53
But there's kind of a paradox here, because it looks like
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Postoji paradoks, jer izgleda kao
da je okruženo pustinjom.
da je okruženo pustinjom.
05:55
it's surrounded by desert. Why is this sea here?
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Zašto je ovde?
05:58
The reason it's here is because, on the right-hand side,
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Nalazi se ovde, jer se sa desne strane
vide dve male reke
vide dve male reke
06:00
you see two little rivers kind of coming down
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kako se spuštaju kroz pesak,
06:03
through the sand, feeding this basin with water.
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napajajući ovaj basen vodom.
06:06
Those rivers are draining snowmelt from mountains
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U te reke otiče otopljen sneg
sa planina daleko na istoku,
sa planina daleko na istoku,
06:09
far to the east, where snow melts, it travels down the river
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gde se sneg topi, sliva se u reku
kroz pustinju
kroz pustinju
06:12
through the desert, and forms the great Aral Sea.
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i formira veliko Aralsko jezero.
06:15
Well, in the 1950s, the Soviets decided to divert that water
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1950. godine Rusi su odlučili
da preusmere tu vodu
da preusmere tu vodu
06:19
to irrigate the desert to grow cotton, believe it or not,
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da bi zalivali pustinju radi gajenja pamuka,
verovali ili ne, u Kazahstanu,
verovali ili ne, u Kazahstanu,
06:22
in Kazakhstan, to sell cotton to the international markets
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i da bi ga prodavali
na međunarodnom tržištu,
na međunarodnom tržištu,
06:25
to bring foreign currency into the Soviet Union.
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da privuku stranu valutu
u Sovjetski Savez.
u Sovjetski Savez.
06:27
They really needed the money.
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Zaista im je bio potreban novac.
06:29
Well, you can imagine what happens. You turn off
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Možete zamisliti šta se dešava.
Prekinete dotok vode
Prekinete dotok vode
06:31
the water supply to the Aral Sea, what's going to happen?
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u Aralsko jezero i šta će se desiti?
06:34
Here it is in 1973,
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Evo, 1973.,
06:37
1986,
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1986.,
06:39
1999,
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1999.,
06:42
2004,
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2004.
06:45
and about 11 months ago.
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i pre otprilike 11 meseci.
06:49
It's pretty extraordinary.
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Prilično je neobično.
06:51
Now a lot of us in the audience here live in the Midwest.
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Mnogo nas živi na Srednjem zapadu.
06:55
Imagine that was Lake Superior.
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Zamislite da se to desilo
sa Gornjim jezerom.
sa Gornjim jezerom.
06:57
Imagine that was Lake Huron.
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Ili sa jezerom Hjuron.
07:01
It's an extraordinary change.
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To je neverovatna promena.
07:02
This is not only a change in water and
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Nije u pitanju samo voda
i položaj obale,
i položaj obale,
07:05
where the shoreline is, this is a change in the fundamentals
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promena je fundamentalna
07:07
of the environment of this region.
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za okolinu ove regije.
07:09
Let's start with this.
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Da počnemo sa ovim.
07:10
The Soviet Union didn't really have a Sierra Club.
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Sovjetski Savez nije imao organizaciju
za zaštitu životne sredine.
za zaštitu životne sredine.
07:13
Let's put it that way.
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Da kažem to ovako -
07:14
So what you find in the bottom of the Aral Sea ain't pretty.
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Ono što se vidi na dnu
Aralskog jezera nije lepo.
Aralskog jezera nije lepo.
07:18
There's a lot of toxic waste, a lot of things
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Ima mnogo toksičnog otpada,
07:20
that were dumped there that are now becoming airborne.
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mnogo tog otpada je sada u vazduhu.
07:22
One of those small islands that was remote
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Jedno od malih, udaljenih ostrva
07:24
and impossible to get to was a site
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kojem je pristup bio nemoguć,
07:26
of Soviet biological weapons testing.
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služilo je za testiranje
sovjetskog biološkog oružja.
sovjetskog biološkog oružja.
07:28
You can walk there today.
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Danas je pristupačno stići tamo.
07:30
Weather patterns have changed.
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Vremenski obrasci se menjaju.
07:31
Nineteen of the unique 20 fish species found only
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19 od 20 jedinstvenih ribljih vrsta
koje se nalaze u Aralskom jezeru,
koje se nalaze u Aralskom jezeru,
07:35
in the Aral Sea are now wiped off the face of the Earth.
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zbrisano je sa lica Zemlje.
07:38
This is an environmental disaster writ large.
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Ovo je ogromna katastrofa.
07:40
But let's bring it home.
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Ali, hajde da se vratimo.
07:42
This is a picture that Al Gore gave me a few years ago
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Ovo je slika koju mi je
Al Gor dao pre nekoliko godina.
Al Gor dao pre nekoliko godina.
07:45
that he took when he was in the Soviet Union
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To je snimio kada je bio
u Sovjetskom Savezu pre mnogo godina
u Sovjetskom Savezu pre mnogo godina
07:46
a long, long time ago,
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07:48
showing the fishing fleets of the Aral Sea.
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i prikazane su ribarske flote
u Aralskom jezeru.
u Aralskom jezeru.
07:51
You see the canal they dug?
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Vidite li kanale koje su iskopali?
07:53
They were so desperate to try to, kind of, float the boats into
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Očajnički su pokušavali
da uvedu čamce u ostatke vode,
da uvedu čamce u ostatke vode,
07:55
the remaining pools of water, but they finally had to give up
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ali na kraju su morali da odustanu
07:57
because the piers and the moorings simply couldn't
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jer stubovi i sidrišta
nisu mogli da prate
nisu mogli da prate
08:00
keep up with the retreating shoreline.
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povlačenje obale.
08:02
I don't know about you, but I'm terrified that future
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2011
Ne znam za vas, ali ja sam užasnut,
08:04
archaeologists will dig this up and write stories about
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budući arheolozi će iskopati ovo
i pisaće priče o našem vremenu,
i pisaće priče o našem vremenu,
08:06
our time in history, and wonder, "What were you thinking?"
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pitajući se: "O čemu ste mislili?"
08:09
Well, that's the future we have to look forward to.
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Ovakvu budućnost očekujemo.
08:12
We already use about 50 percent of the Earth's fresh water
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Već sada koristimo 50 posto
održive vode Zemlje,
održive vode Zemlje,
08:15
that's sustainable, and agriculture alone
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2192
a od toga
08:17
is 70 percent of that.
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70 posto se troši na poljoprivredu.
08:20
So we use a lot of water, a lot of land for agriculture.
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Mnogo vode, mnogo zemljišta
koristimo za poljoprivredu.
koristimo za poljoprivredu.
08:23
We also use a lot of the atmosphere for agriculture.
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Čak i od atmosfere koristimo mnogo.
08:26
Usually when we think about the atmosphere,
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Obično, kad pomislimo na atmosferu,
08:29
we think about climate change and greenhouse gases,
188
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mislimo o klimatskim promenama
i o gasovima staklene bašte
i o gasovima staklene bašte
08:31
and mostly around energy,
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2056
i uglavnom o energiji,
08:33
but it turns out agriculture is one of the biggest emitters
190
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a ispostavlja se, da je poljoprivreda
jedan od najvećih emitera
jedan od najvećih emitera
08:36
of greenhouse gases too.
191
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2052
gasova staklene bašte.
08:38
If you look at carbon dioxide from
192
506548
2056
Ako pogledate ugljen dioksid
08:40
burning tropical rainforest,
193
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2152
iz zapaljenih tropskih prašuma
08:42
or methane coming from cows and rice,
194
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2560
ili metan koji potiče
od goveda i pirinča
od goveda i pirinča
08:45
or nitrous oxide from too many fertilizers,
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2913
ili azotni oksid iz previše đubriva,
08:48
it turns out agriculture is 30 percent of the greenhouse
196
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ispostavlja se da se 30 posto
gasova staklene bašte
gasova staklene bašte
08:51
gases going into the atmosphere from human activity.
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oslobađa u atmosferu
zbog ljudske aktivnosti.
zbog ljudske aktivnosti.
08:54
That's more than all our transportation.
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522016
1854
To je više od celokupnog saobraćaja.
08:55
It's more than all our electricity.
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Više od celokupne električne energije.
08:57
It's more than all other manufacturing, in fact.
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U stvari, više od
celokupne proizvodnje.
celokupne proizvodnje.
09:00
It's the single largest emitter of greenhouse gases
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Poljoprivreda je najveći emiter gasova
09:03
of any human activity in the world.
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koji potiče od delatnosti ljudi.
09:05
And yet, we don't talk about it very much.
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Ipak se ne govori mnogo o tome.
09:08
So we have this incredible presence today of agriculture
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Neverovatno je prisustvo
poljoprivrede danas,
poljoprivrede danas,
09:11
dominating our planet,
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2137
ona dominira našom planetom,
09:13
whether it's 40 percent of our land surface,
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bilo da zauzma 40 posto
površine zemlje,
površine zemlje,
09:15
70 percent of the water we use,
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70 posto vode koju koristimo
09:17
30 percent of our greenhouse gas emissions.
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2725
ili učestvuje sa 30 posto
u emisiji gasova.
u emisiji gasova.
09:20
We've doubled the flows of nitrogen and phosphorus
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548682
2849
Duplirali smo kruženje
azota i fosfora u svetu
azota i fosfora u svetu
09:23
around the world simply by using fertilizers,
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2463
samo zbog upotrebe đubriva,
09:25
causing huge problems of water quality from rivers,
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2771
narušavajući kvalitet voda
u rekama, jezerima, čak i u okeanima.
u rekama, jezerima, čak i u okeanima.
09:28
lakes, and even oceans, and it's also the single biggest
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Poljoprivreda je najveći pokretač
09:31
driver of biodiversity loss.
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gubitka biodiverziteta.
09:34
So without a doubt, agriculture is
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Bez sumnje, poljoprivreda je
09:36
the single most powerful force unleashed on this planet
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najveća oslobođena snaga
na ovoj planeti
na ovoj planeti
09:39
since the end of the ice age. No question.
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2619
od završetka ledenog doba.
Bez sumnje.
Bez sumnje.
09:42
And it rivals climate change in importance.
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Po važnosti,
rival je klimatskoj promeni.
rival je klimatskoj promeni.
09:45
And they're both happening at the same time.
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2925
A obe se dešavaju istovremeno.
09:48
But what's really important here to remember is that
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576462
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Ali, važno je napomenuti,
nije sve tako loše.
nije sve tako loše.
09:50
it's not all bad. It's not that agriculture's a bad thing.
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Nije stvar u tome
da je poljoprivreda loša.
da je poljoprivreda loša.
09:54
In fact, we completely depend on it.
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U stvari, u potpunosti zavisimo od nje.
09:56
It's not optional. It's not a luxury. It's an absolute necessity.
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Ona je obavezna. Nije luksuz.
Ona je apsolutna potreba.
10:00
We have to provide food and feed and, yeah,
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Moramo obezbediti hranu
za ljude i stoku,
za ljude i stoku,
10:02
fiber and even biofuels to something like seven billion people
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vlakna i biogorivo za današnjih
sedam milijardi ljudi sveta.
sedam milijardi ljudi sveta.
10:06
in the world today, and if anything,
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Tražićemo da se poljoprivreda
čak i uveća u budućnosti.
čak i uveća u budućnosti.
10:09
we're going to have the demands on agriculture
226
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10:11
increase into the future. It's not going to go away.
227
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Potrebe neće prestati,
mnogo će se uvećati,
mnogo će se uvećati,
10:14
It's going to get a lot bigger, mainly because of
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uglavnom zbog porasta populacije.
10:16
growing population. We're seven billion people today
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Danas nas ima sedam milijardi,
ali idemo ka najmanje devet,
ali idemo ka najmanje devet,
10:19
heading towards at least nine,
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10:21
probably nine and a half before we're done.
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možda devet i po dok se osvrnemo.
10:24
More importantly, changing diets.
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Što je još važnije,
menja se način ishrane.
menja se način ishrane.
10:26
As the world becomes wealthier as well as more populous,
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Kako svet postaje bogatiji,
a i brojniji,
a i brojniji,
10:29
we're seeing increases in dietary consumption of meat,
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vidimo porast potrošnje mesa,
10:32
which take a lot more resources than a vegetarian diet does.
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što koristi mnogo više resursa
nego vegetarijanska ishrana.
nego vegetarijanska ishrana.
10:36
So more people, eating more stuff, and richer stuff,
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Više ljudi jede više,
bogatiju hranu,
bogatiju hranu,
10:40
and of course having an energy crisis at the same time,
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3201
a istovremeno imamo
i krizu energenata,
i krizu energenata,
10:43
where we have to replace oil with other energy sources
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moramo zameniti naftu
drugim izvorima energije,
drugim izvorima energije,
10:46
that will ultimately have to include some kinds of biofuels
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2571
što će automatski uključiti
neke vrste biogoriva
neke vrste biogoriva
10:49
and bio-energy sources.
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i izvore bioenergije.
10:51
So you put these together. It's really hard to see
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Sve to zajedno znači
da je teško shvatiti:
da je teško shvatiti:
10:53
how we're going to get to the rest of the century
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teško je predvideti
kako ćemo stići do kraja veka
kako ćemo stići do kraja veka
10:56
without at least doubling global agricultural production.
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bez barem udvostručenja
svetske poljoprivredne proizvodnje.
svetske poljoprivredne proizvodnje.
11:00
Well, how are we going to do this? How are going to
244
648573
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Pa, kako ćemo to uraditi?
Kako ćemo udvostručiti
Kako ćemo udvostručiti
11:02
double global ag production around the world?
245
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2793
svetsku poljoprivrednu proizvodnju?
11:05
Well, we could try to farm more land.
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2688
Možemo pokušati
da obrađujemo više zemljišta.
da obrađujemo više zemljišta.
11:08
This is an analysis we've done, where on the left is where
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Ovo je analiza koju smo uradili,
levo su usevi danas,
levo su usevi danas,
11:10
the crops are today, on the right is where they could be
248
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3494
desno je gde bi mogli biti
11:14
based on soils and climate, assuming climate change
249
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2948
na osnovu zemljišta i klime,
pretpostavljajući da klimatska promena
pretpostavljajući da klimatska promena
11:17
doesn't disrupt too much of this,
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1841
ne remeti mnogo od ovoga,
11:19
which is not a good assumption.
251
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što i nije dobra pretpostavka.
11:20
We could farm more land, but the problem is
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Mogli bismo obrađivati i više zemljišta,
ali problem je u tome
ali problem je u tome
11:23
the remaining lands are in sensitive areas.
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što je ostatak zemljišta
u osetljivim područjima.
u osetljivim područjima.
11:26
They have a lot of biodiversity, a lot of carbon,
254
674143
2038
Ona imaju bogat biodiverzitet,
mnogo ugljenika,
mnogo ugljenika,
11:28
things we want to protect.
255
676181
2434
stvari koje želimo da zaštitimo.
11:30
So we could grow more food by expanding farmland,
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2824
Mogli bismo da proizvodimo više hrane
uvećanjem obradivog zemljišta,
uvećanjem obradivog zemljišta,
11:33
but we'd better not,
257
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1318
ali bolje je da to ne radimo,
11:34
because it's ecologically a very, very dangerous thing to do.
258
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3666
jer je sa aspekta ekologije
to veoma opasno.
to veoma opasno.
11:38
Instead, we maybe want to freeze the footprint
259
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2384
Umesto toga, mogli bismo
da zamrznemo uticaj poljoprivrede
da zamrznemo uticaj poljoprivrede
11:40
of agriculture and farm the lands we have better.
260
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i da bolje obrađujemo
postojeće zemljište.
postojeće zemljište.
11:44
This is work that we're doing to try to highlight places
261
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2400
Ovde pokušavamo
da naglasimo mesta u svetu,
da naglasimo mesta u svetu,
11:46
in the world where we could improve yields
262
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2567
gde bismo mogli povećati prinose,
11:49
without harming the environment.
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2266
a da ne štetimo okolini.
11:51
The green areas here show where corn yields,
264
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2401
Zelena područja pokazuju
polja kukuruza,
polja kukuruza,
11:54
just showing corn as an example,
265
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2150
navodimo kukuruz kao primer,
11:56
are already really high, probably the maximum you could
266
704376
2601
gde su prinosi zaista visoki,
verovatno maksimalni
verovatno maksimalni
11:58
find on Earth today for that climate and soil,
267
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2878
za tu klimu i tlo,
12:01
but the brown areas and yellow areas are places where
268
709855
2351
a braon i žuta područja su mesta
12:04
we're only getting maybe 20 or 30 percent of the yield
269
712206
2514
gde su prinosi samo 20 ili 30 posto
12:06
you should be able to get.
270
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1340
od onoga što bi trebalo da dobijemo.
12:08
You see a lot of this in Africa, even Latin America,
271
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2318
Ovo se dešava najviše u Africi,
čak i u Latinskoj Americi,
čak i u Latinskoj Americi,
12:10
but interestingly, Eastern Europe, where Soviet Union
272
718378
2860
ali zanimljivo je da u Istočnoj Evropi,
gde se nalazio Sovjetski savez
gde se nalazio Sovjetski savez
12:13
and Eastern Bloc countries used to be,
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2241
i gde su bile zemlje Istočnog bloka,
12:15
is still a mess agriculturally.
274
723479
2224
poljoprivreda još uvek nije uređena.
12:17
Now, this would require nutrients and water.
275
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2633
Potrebna je hrana i voda.
12:20
It's going to either be organic or conventional
276
728336
2133
Može biti organska ili konvencionalna
12:22
or some mix of the two to deliver that.
277
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1813
ili neka mešavina i jednog i drugog.
12:24
Plants need water and nutrients.
278
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2165
Biljkama je potrebna voda i hrana.
12:26
But we can do this, and there are opportunities to make this work.
279
734447
3208
Postoje šanse da uspemo u ovome.
12:29
But we have to do it in a way that is sensitive
280
737655
2280
Moramo to uraditi tako
da vodimo računa
da vodimo računa
12:31
to meeting the food security needs of the future
281
739935
2609
i zadovoljimo potrebe za bezbednošću
hrane u budućnosti
hrane u budućnosti
12:34
and the environmental security needs of the future.
282
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3263
i bezbednosti okoline u budućnosti.
12:37
We have to figure out how to make this tradeoff between
283
745807
3014
Moramo otkriti kako doći do kompromisa
12:40
growing food and having a healthy environment work better.
284
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3709
između veće proizvodnje hrane
i bezbedne delatnosti po okolinu.
i bezbedne delatnosti po okolinu.
12:44
Right now, it's kind of an all-or-nothing proposition.
285
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2530
Sada je to vrsta plana sve-ili-ništa.
12:47
We can grow food in the background --
286
755060
1962
Možemo proizvoditi hranu
u ovim okolnostima -
u ovim okolnostima -
12:49
that's a soybean field —
287
757022
1461
ovo su polja soje,
12:50
and in this flower diagram, it shows we grow a lot of food,
288
758483
3127
i ovaj dijagram pokazuje
da proizvodimo mnogo hrane,
da proizvodimo mnogo hrane,
12:53
but we don't have a lot clean water, we're not storing
289
761610
2518
ali nemamo mnogo čiste vode,
ne skladištimo ugljenik,
ne skladištimo ugljenik,
12:56
a lot of carbon, we don't have a lot of biodiversity.
290
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2997
nemamo razgranat biodiverzitet.
12:59
In the foreground, we have this prairie
291
767125
2008
U prvom planu imamo ovo preriju,
13:01
that's wonderful from the environmental side,
292
769133
1558
koja je divna sa tačke gledišta okoline,
13:02
but you can't eat anything. What's there to eat?
293
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3204
ali tu ništa nije jestivo.
Šta može ovde da se jede?
Šta može ovde da se jede?
13:05
We need to figure out how to bring both of those together
294
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2537
Moramo smisliti način
kako da spojimo ovo
kako da spojimo ovo
13:08
into a new kind of agriculture that brings them all together.
295
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4110
u jednu novu vrstu poljoprivrede
koja sve spaja.
koja sve spaja.
13:12
Now, when I talk about this, people often tell me,
296
780542
2211
Kada o ovome pričam,
ljudi mi često govore:
ljudi mi često govore:
13:14
"Well, isn't blank the answer?" -- organic food,
297
782753
3232
"Zar odgovor nije prost?"
- organska hrana, lokalna hrana,
- organska hrana, lokalna hrana,
13:17
local food, GMOs, new trade subsidies, new farm bills --
298
785985
4748
GMO, nove trgovačke subvencije,
novi računi za farme -
novi računi za farme -
13:22
and yeah, we have a lot of good ideas here,
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imamo mnogo dobrih ideja ovde,
13:25
but not any one of these is a silver bullet.
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ali nijedna nije pravi pogodak.
13:28
In fact, what I think they are is more like silver buckshot.
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Više liči na sačmu.
13:31
And I love silver buckshot. You put it together
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A ja volim pravi pogodak.
Sastavite ih
Sastavite ih
13:34
and you've got something really powerful,
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i dobijate nešto zaista moćno,
13:36
but we need to put them together.
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ali potrebno je da ih spojimo.
13:38
So what we have to do, I think, is invent a new kind
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Ono što moramo uraditi je to
da otkrijemo novu vrstu poljoprivrede,
da otkrijemo novu vrstu poljoprivrede,
13:41
of agriculture that blends the best ideas
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mešavinu najboljih ideja
13:43
of commercial agriculture and the green revolution
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komercijalne poljoprivrede
i zelene revolucije
i zelene revolucije
13:47
with the best ideas of organic farming and local food
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sa najboljim idejama
o organskoj proizvodnji i lokalnoj hrani
o organskoj proizvodnji i lokalnoj hrani
13:50
and the best ideas of environmental conservation,
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i sa najboljim idejama
o zaštiti životne sredine;
o zaštiti životne sredine;
13:54
not to have them fighting each other but to have them
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da se ne sukobljavaju jedna sa drugom,
nego da sarađuju;
nego da sarađuju;
13:55
collaborating together to form a new kind of agriculture,
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da bismo stvorili novu
vrstu poljoprivrede;
vrstu poljoprivrede;
13:59
something I call "terraculture," or farming for a whole planet.
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nešto, što ja zovem "zemljokulturom",
odnosno proizvodnjom za celu planetu.
odnosno proizvodnjom za celu planetu.
14:04
Now, having this conversation has been really hard,
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Pošto je ovo dogovaranje zaista teško
14:07
and we've been trying very hard to bring these key points
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i ozbiljno smo se trudili
da damo ove ključne tačke ljudima,
da damo ove ključne tačke ljudima,
14:09
to people to reduce the controversy,
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da smanjimo polemiku,
14:11
to increase the collaboration.
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a povećamo saradnju.
14:13
I want to show you a short video that does kind of show
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Želim da vam pokažem kratak video
koji pokazuje naše napore
koji pokazuje naše napore
14:15
our efforts right now to bring these sides together
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da približimo obe strane
u jedan razgovor.
u jedan razgovor.
14:18
into a single conversation. So let me show you that.
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Dozvolite da vam to prikažem.
14:21
(Music)
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(Muzika)
14:25
("Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota: Driven to Discover")
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[Institut za zaštitu okoline, Univerzitet u Minesoti:
Podstaknut za otkrivanjem]
Podstaknut za otkrivanjem]
14:29
(Music)
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(Muzika)
14:30
("The world population is growing
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[Svetsko stanovništvo uvećava se
14:32
by 75 million people each year.
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svake godine za 75 miliona ljudi.
14:35
That's almost the size of Germany.
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To je skoro veličina Nemačke.
14:37
Today, we're nearing 7 billion people.
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Danas smo se približili broju
od 7 milijardi ljudi.
od 7 milijardi ljudi.
14:40
At this rate, we'll reach 9 billion people by 2040.
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Ovim tempom, do 2040. godine
biće 9 milijardi ljudi.
biće 9 milijardi ljudi.
14:43
And we all need food.
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Svima nam je potrebna hrana.
14:45
But how?
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Ali kako?
14:46
How do we feed a growing world without destroying the planet?
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Kako ćemo hraniti svet,
a da ne uništimo planetu?
a da ne uništimo planetu?
14:49
We already know climate change is a big problem.
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Već znamo da je klimatska promena
veliki problem.
veliki problem.
14:52
But it's not the only problem.
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Ali nije jedini.
14:53
We need to face 'the other inconvenient truth.'
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Moramo se suočiti
sa "drugom neprijatnom istinom".
sa "drugom neprijatnom istinom".
14:56
A global crisis in agriculture.
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Sa svetskom krizom poljoprivrede.
14:59
Population growth + meat consumption + dairy consumption + energy costs + bioenergy production = stress on natural resources.
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Porast stanovništva + potrošnja mesa
+ potrošnja mleka + cena energije
+ proizvodnja bioenergije
+ proizvodnja bioenergije
= pritisak na prirodne resurse.
15:05
More than 40% of Earth's land has been cleared for agriculture.
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Više od 40 posto obradive zemlje
je nestalo zbog poljoprivrede.
je nestalo zbog poljoprivrede.
15:08
Global croplands cover 16 million km².
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Njive u svetu pokrivaju 16 miliona km².
15:10
That's almost the size of South America.
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To je skoro veličina Južne Amerike.
15:14
Global pastures cover 30 million km².
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Pašnjaci pokrivaju 30 miliona km².
15:15
That's the size of Africa.
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To je veličina Afrike.
15:18
Agriculture uses 60 times more land than urban and suburban areas combined.
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Poljoprivreda koristi 60 puta
više zemljišta
više zemljišta
od gradskih i prigradskih
područja zajedno.
područja zajedno.
15:22
Irrigation is the biggest use of water on the planet.
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Zalivanje je najveći potrošač vode
na planeti.
na planeti.
15:26
We use 2,800 cubic kilometers of water on crops every year.
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4374
Svake godine koristimo 2800 km³
vode za zalivanje useva.
vode za zalivanje useva.
15:30
That's enough to fill 7,305 Empire State Buildings every day.
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To je dovoljno da se napuni 7.305 zgrada
Empire State svakog dana.
Empire State svakog dana.
15:34
Today, many large rivers have reduced flows.
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Danas mnoge velike reke
imaju smanjen protok.
imaju smanjen protok.
15:37
Some dry up altogether.
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Neke se skroz isuše.
15:39
Look at the Aral Sea, now turned to desert.
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927643
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Pogledajte Aralsko jezero,
pretvorilo se u pustinju.
pretvorilo se u pustinju.
15:43
Or the Colorado River, which no longer flows to the ocean.
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Reka Kolorado se više ne uliva u okean.
15:47
Fertilizers have more than doubled the phosphorus and nitrogen in the environment.
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Đubriva su više nego udvostručila
količinu fosfora i azota u okolini.
količinu fosfora i azota u okolini.
15:51
The consequence?
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A posledica toga?
15:52
Widespread water pollution
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1984
Zagađenje vode širom sveta
15:54
and massive degradation of lakes and rivers.
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i masovna degradacija jezera i reka.
15:56
Surprisingly, agriculture is the biggest contributor to climate change.
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Začudo, poljoprivreda najviše
doprinosi klimatskoj promeni.
doprinosi klimatskoj promeni.
16:00
It generates 30% of greenhouse gas emissions.
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Ona stvara 30% emisije
gasova staklene bašte.
gasova staklene bašte.
16:03
That's more than the emissions from all electricity and industry,
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To je više od emisije celokupne
električne energije i industrije
električne energije i industrije
16:06
or from all the world's planes, trains and automobiles.
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ili od emisije svih aviona,
vozova i automobila na svetu.
vozova i automobila na svetu.
16:09
Most agricultural emissions come from tropical deforestation,
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957005
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Većina poljoprivrednih emisija
dolazi od krčenja tropskih šuma,
dolazi od krčenja tropskih šuma,
16:11
methane from animals and rice fields,
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959373
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metana životinjskog porekla
i sa pirinčanih polja
i sa pirinčanih polja
16:12
and nitrous oxide from over-fertilizing.
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960749
1832
i od azot oksida
zbog preterane upotrebe đubriva.
zbog preterane upotrebe đubriva.
16:14
There is nothing we do that transforms the world more than agriculture.
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Ništa ne transformiše svet
više od poljoprivrede.
više od poljoprivrede.
16:17
And there's nothing we do that is more crucial to our survival.
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I ništa od ovoga nije sudbonosnije
za naš opstanak.
za naš opstanak.
16:21
Here's the dilemma...
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Evo dileme...
16:22
As the world grows by several billion more people,
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pošto se svet uvećava
za nekoliko milijardi ljudi,
za nekoliko milijardi ljudi,
16:27
We'll need to double, maybe even triple, global food production.
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moraćemo udvostručiti ili čak utrostručiti
svetsku poljoprivrednu proizvodnju.
svetsku poljoprivrednu proizvodnju.
16:31
So where do we go from here?
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Kuda da idemo odavde?
16:33
We need a bigger conversation, an international dialogue.
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2803
Potreban nam je opširniji razgovor,
međunarodni dijalog.
međunarodni dijalog.
16:36
We need to invest in real solutions:
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984011
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Moramo investirati u prava rešenja:
podsticaje za farmere, preciznu poljoprivredu,
podsticaje za farmere, preciznu poljoprivredu,
16:37
incentives for farmers, precision agriculture, new crop varieties, drip irrigation,
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stvaranje novih vrsta useva,
navodnjavanje kap po kap,
navodnjavanje kap po kap,
16:42
gray water recycling, better tillage practices, smarter diets.
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recikliranje otpadne vode,
bolju praksu oranja, pametniju ishranu.
bolju praksu oranja, pametniju ishranu.
16:45
We need everyone at the table.
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Potrebno je da se svi okupe.
16:48
Advocates of commercial agriculture,
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1950
Zagovornici komercijalne poljoprivrede,
16:49
environmental conservation,
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1147
očuvanja životne okoline
16:51
and organic farming...
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i organske proizvodnje...
16:52
must work together.
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svi moraju raditi zajedno.
16:54
There is no single solution.
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1558
Nema prostog rešenja.
16:56
We need collaboration,
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Potrebna nam je saradnja,
16:57
imagination,
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mašta,
16:59
determination,
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778
odlučnost,
17:00
because failure is not an option.
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3659
jer ne smemo pogrešiti.
17:03
How do we feed the world without destroying it?
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3697
Kako ćemo hraniti svet,
a da ga ne uništimo?]
a da ga ne uništimo?]
17:07
Yeah, so we face one of the greatest grand challenges
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Suočavamo se sa jednim
od najvećih izazova
od najvećih izazova
17:10
in all of human history today:
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2110
u ljudskoj istoriji danas:
17:12
the need to feed nine billion people
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to je ishrana devet milijardi ljudi,
17:15
and do so sustainably and equitably and justly,
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3754
a da to bude održivo,
ravnopravno i pravedno,
ravnopravno i pravedno,
17:18
at the same time protecting our planet
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1701
a istovremeno i da zaštitimo
našu planetu za ovu,
našu planetu za ovu,
17:20
for this and future generations.
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2813
a i sledeće generacije.
17:23
This is going to be one of the hardest things
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Ovo će biti jedna od najtežih stvari
17:24
we ever have done in human history,
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koju smo ikada uradili
u ljudskoj istoriji
u ljudskoj istoriji
17:26
and we absolutely have to get it right,
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i moramo ovo apsolutno tačno uraditi
17:29
and we have to get it right on our first and only try.
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i to iz prvog i jedinog pokušaja.
17:34
So thanks very much. (Applause)
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Hvala mnogo.
(Aplauz)
(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Jonathan Foley - ProfessorJonathan Foley studies complex environmental systems and their affects on society. His computer models have shown the deep impact agriculture is having on our planet.
Why you should listen
Dr. Jonathan Foley focusses on the complex relationship between global environmental systems and human civilization, using computer models to analyze changes in land use, ecosystems and resources around the world. After 15 years at the University of Wisconsin, Foley is now a professor and McKnight Presidential Chair in the Department of Ecology and director of the Institute on the Environment at the University of Minnesota.
Jonathan Foley | Speaker | TED.com