TEDxTC
Jonathan Foley: The other inconvenient truth
強納生．佛里：另一個不願面對的真相
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881,631 views
一個食物的迫切需求指的是農業已變成造成氣候變遷、生物多樣性的損失以及環境破壞的最大因素之一。在 TEDxTC 中，強納生．佛里告訴我們為什麼我們非常需要「地球耕育」（terraculture）－－為全星球耕種。（攝於 TEDxTC）
Jonathan Foley - Professor
Jonathan Foley studies complex environmental systems and their affects on society. His computer models have shown the deep impact agriculture is having on our planet. Full bio
Jonathan Foley studies complex environmental systems and their affects on society. His computer models have shown the deep impact agriculture is having on our planet. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
Tonight, I want to have a conversation about
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今晚，我想談談一個
00:14
this incredible global issue
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令人難以置信的全球性議題
00:16
that's at the intersection of land use, food and environment,
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那是關於土地的運用、食物和環境
00:21
something we can all relate to,
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和我們每個人都有關的事物的交集上
00:22
and what I've been calling the other inconvenient truth.
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我稱為另一個不願面對的真相
00:25
But first, I want to take you on a little journey.
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首先，我想帶你走一段旅程
00:28
Let's first visit our planet, but at night,
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來參觀一下我們的星球
00:31
and from space.
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不過是在晚上，從外太空來看
00:33
This is what our planet looks like from outer space
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這是夜晚從外太空看地球的樣子
00:36
at nighttime, if you were to take a satellite and travel
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如果你搭乘人造衛星繞行這個星球
00:38
around the planet. And the thing you would notice first,
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你會先注意到的是
00:41
of course, is how dominant the human presence
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人類現代如何
00:44
on our planet is.
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主宰我們的地球
00:46
We see cities, we see oil fields,
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我們看到城市、油田
00:49
you can even make out fishing fleets in the sea,
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你甚至可以看出在海上的捕魚船隊
00:52
that we are dominating much of our planet,
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我們主宰了自己星球絕大多數
00:54
and mostly through the use of energy
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而且大部份是透過能源的運用
00:56
that we see here at night.
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如同我們現在所看到的夜間地球
00:58
But let's go back and drop it a little deeper
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讓我們回過頭來再靠近一點
01:00
and look during the daytime.
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看看白天的樣子
01:02
What we see during the day is our landscapes.
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在白天我們會看到的是地表
01:06
This is part of the Amazon Basin, a place called Rondônia
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這是亞馬遜盆地裡的朗多尼亞州
01:09
in the south-center part of the Brazilian Amazon.
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位在巴西亞馬遜的中南部
01:13
If you look really carefully in the upper right-hand corner,
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如果你很仔細地看，會發現上方靠右的地方
01:16
you're going to see a thin white line,
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有一條細細白色的線
01:18
which is a road that was built in the 1970s.
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那是1970年代時興建的路
01:22
If we come back to the same place in 2001,
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如果我們看看2001年同一個地點的樣子
01:25
what we're going to find is that these roads
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我們會看到這些路延伸出許多小路
01:27
spurt off more roads, and more roads after that,
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然後這些小路又再延伸出更多的小徑
01:31
at the end of which is a small clearing in the rainforest
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盡頭處是雨林中的林地開墾
01:34
where there are going to be a few cows.
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裡面有幾頭牛
01:37
These cows are used for beef. We're going to eat these cows.
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這些牛將會變成牛排，然後被我們吃掉
01:40
And these cows are eaten basically in South America,
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基本上這些牛會供給南美洲的巴西人和阿根廷人食用
01:43
in Brazil and Argentina. They're not being shipped up here.
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他們不會被運到這裡
01:45
But this kind of fishbone pattern of deforestation
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我們會在熱帶附近看到很多這種
01:48
is something we notice a lot of around the tropics,
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森林砍伐的魚骨圖騰
01:51
especially in this part of the world.
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尤其是在地球上的這個區域
01:53
If we go a little bit further south in our little tour of the world,
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如果我們再往地球的南邊走一點
01:56
we can go to the Bolivian edge of the Amazon,
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可以走到亞馬遜的玻利維亞邊境
01:59
here also in 1975, and if you look really carefully,
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一樣是在1975年，如果你很仔細地看
02:03
there's a thin white line through that kind of seam,
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會看到一條細細的白色線穿過那條縫
02:06
and there's a lone farmer out there
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你會發現在原始叢林的中間
02:08
in the middle of the primeval jungle.
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有一個孤獨的農夫
02:10
Let's come back again a few years later, here in 2003,
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讓我們再次回到數年前，在2003年
02:15
and we'll see that that landscape actually looks
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景色看起來其實有點像愛荷華州
02:17
a lot more like Iowa than it does like a rainforest.
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而不太像雨林
02:20
In fact, what you're seeing here are soybean fields.
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事實上，你看到的這個地方是黃豆田
02:24
These soybeans are being shipped to Europe and to China
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這些黃豆將被送到歐洲和中國
做為動物的飼料
做為動物的飼料
02:27
as animal feed, especially after the mad cow disease scare
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尤其是大約在十年前左右，在狂牛病爆發開始後
02:30
about a decade ago, where we don't want to feed animals
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沒有人想要再用動物蛋白質餵食動物
02:33
animal protein anymore, because that can transmit disease.
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因為這麼做會傳染疾病
02:36
Instead, we want to feed them more vegetable proteins.
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相反的，我們用更多的植物性蛋白質來餵食動物
02:39
So soybeans have really exploded,
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因此黃豆的需求激增
02:41
showing how trade and globalization are
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這顯示了貿易和全球化為什麼
02:44
really responsible for the connections to rainforests
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需要對雨林和亞馬遜河負責
02:47
and the Amazon -- an incredibly strange
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這造成了現今
02:49
and interconnected world that we have today.
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令人難以置信的陌生卻彼此互連的世界
02:52
Well, again and again, what we find as we look
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在環繞地球的旅程中
02:54
around the world in our little tour of the world
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我們一而再、再而三的發現
02:56
is that landscape after landscape after landscape
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景觀不斷地被開墾
03:00
have been cleared and altered for growing food
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且土地被變更
03:03
and other crops.
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做為種植食物和作物之用
03:05
So one of the questions we've been asking is,
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我們常常會被問到：
03:08
how much of the world is used to grow food,
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世界上有多少地方被拿來種植食物
03:10
and where is it exactly, and how can we change that
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這些地方在哪裡？我們未來可以如何改變？
03:12
into the future, and what does it mean?
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以及這代表的意義
03:15
Well, our team has been looking at this on a global scale,
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我們的團隊以全球的規模
03:18
using satellite data and ground-based data kind of to track
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使用人造衛星的資料和地表上的資料
03:21
farming on a global scale.
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來追蹤全球的農業
03:23
And this is what we found, and it's startling.
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我們發現了讓人非常吃驚的事實
03:27
This map shows the presence of agriculture
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這個地圖顯示了地球上
03:29
on planet Earth.
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農業的分佈情形
03:32
The green areas are the areas we use to grow crops,
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綠色的區域是我們用來種植作物的地方
03:35
like wheat or soybeans or corn or rice or whatever.
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像是小麥、黃豆、玉米或是稻米之類的
03:38
That's 16 million square kilometers' worth of land.
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總共是一千六百平方公里的土地
03:42
If you put it all together in one place,
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如果你把這些土地集中在同一個地方
03:44
it'd be the size of South America.
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大約是南美洲大小的土地
03:47
The second area, in brown, is the world's pastures
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再來是咖啡色的區域
03:49
and rangelands, where our animals live.
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是放牧地或牧場，動物在此居住
03:52
That area's about 30 million square kilometers,
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這個區域大約是三千萬平方公里
03:54
or about an Africa's worth of land,
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大概是非洲大小的土地
03:57
a huge amount of land, and it's the best land, of course,
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你看到的是很大範圍的土地，而且是土質最好的土地
04:00
is what you see. And what's left is, like,
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左邊的部份
04:02
the middle of the Sahara Desert, or Siberia,
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應該是撒哈拉沙漠、西伯利亞
04:04
or the middle of a rain forest.
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或是某個雨林的中央
04:06
We're using a planet's worth of land already.
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我們已經使用了一個星球的土地了
04:09
If we look at this carefully, we find it's about 40 percent
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如果我們很仔細地看
04:12
of the Earth's land surface is devoted to agriculture,
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會發現大約地表百分之四十的土地被用來做農業
04:15
and it's 60 times larger
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這比我們現在討論的
04:17
than all the areas we complain about,
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還要大六十倍的土地
04:20
our suburban sprawl and our cities where we mostly live.
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包含了郊區的荒野土地和大部份人們居住的城市
04:23
Half of humanity lives in cities today,
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現在有一半的人們住在城市
04:26
but a 60-times-larger area is used to grow food.
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但是有六十倍大的地區被用來種植食物
04:30
So this is an amazing kind of result,
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這是十分驚人的結果
04:32
and it really shocked us when we looked at that.
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當我們看到這項統計時非常震驚
04:34
So we're using an enormous amount of land for agriculture,
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我們在農業上用了非常大量的土地
04:37
but also we're using a lot of water.
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而且也用了很大量的水
04:39
This is a photograph flying into Arizona,
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這是我們飛到亞利桑那州上空的照片
04:42
and when you look at it, you're like,
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當你仔細看
04:43
"What are they growing here?" It turns out
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你會想：「他們在這裡種什麼？」
04:44
they're growing lettuce in the middle of the desert
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其實他們在沙漠中種萵苣
04:47
using water sprayed on top.
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用噴灑的方式來供給水
04:49
Now, the irony is, it's probably sold
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現在，諷刺的是
04:51
in our supermarket shelves in the Twin Cities.
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這些東西會放在大都會區的超市架上販賣
04:53
But what's really interesting is, this water's got to come
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但是有趣的是
04:56
from some place, and it comes from here,
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這些水來自於我們所在之處
04:58
the Colorado River in North America.
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來自北美的科羅納多河
05:01
Well, the Colorado on a typical day in the 1950s,
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這是科羅納多在1950年代時普通的一天
05:04
this is just, you know, not a flood, not a drought,
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這張照片看起來就像是平常的日子
05:06
kind of an average day, it looks something like this.
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沒有洪水或旱災
05:09
But if we come back today, during a normal condition
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但是如果我們回到今天
05:11
to the exact same location, this is what's left.
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同樣在平常的日子、同一個地點
是左邊這張圖片的樣子
是左邊這張圖片的樣子
05:15
The difference is mainly irrigating the desert for food,
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不同的是現在的河水
主要用來灌溉沙漠的作物
主要用來灌溉沙漠的作物
05:18
or maybe golf courses in Scottsdale, you take your pick.
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或是斯科茨代爾州的高爾夫場
05:22
Well, this is a lot of water, and again, we're mining water
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這可是很大量的水
同樣地，我們開採水源
同樣地，我們開採水源
05:24
and using it to grow food,
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然後用這些水來種植作物
05:27
and today, if you travel down further down the Colorado,
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現在，如果你再往科羅拉多河的南方走
05:30
it dries up completely and no longer flows into the ocean.
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它已經完全乾涸且不再流向大海
05:33
We've literally consumed an entire river in North America
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我們為了灌溉北美
05:36
for irrigation.
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已漸漸地消耗了整條河水
05:38
Well, that's not even the worst example in the world.
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嗯，這還不是世界上最糟的情況
05:40
This probably is: the Aral Sea.
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這裡大概是：死海
05:43
Now, a lot you will remember this from your geography classes.
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多數人記得這裡是因為在地理課時見過
05:46
This is in the former Soviet Union
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鹹海位於前蘇聯
05:48
in between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan,
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在哈薩克斯坦共和國和烏茲別克斯坦共和國的交界處
05:50
one of the great inland seas of the world.
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是世界上最大的內陸鹹水湖之一
05:53
But there's kind of a paradox here, because it looks like
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不過這裡有一個弔詭之處
05:55
it's surrounded by desert. Why is this sea here?
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因為它看起來被沙漠包圍
哪裡有海？
哪裡有海？
05:58
The reason it's here is because, on the right-hand side,
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它會在這裡的原因是
06:00
you see two little rivers kind of coming down
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你會看到右手邊有兩條小河流向沙漠
06:03
through the sand, feeding this basin with water.
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供給水到這個盆地
06:06
Those rivers are draining snowmelt from mountains
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那些河將群山的融雪流向東邊
06:09
far to the east, where snow melts, it travels down the river
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當雪融化，流向河川，通過沙漠
06:12
through the desert, and forms the great Aral Sea.
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然後就形成了死海
06:15
Well, in the 1950s, the Soviets decided to divert that water
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在1950年代，蘇聯決定將水源
06:19
to irrigate the desert to grow cotton, believe it or not,
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改為灌溉棉田使用
06:22
in Kazakhstan, to sell cotton to the international markets
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你相信嗎？哈薩克斯坦將棉賣到國際市場
06:25
to bring foreign currency into the Soviet Union.
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藉此引進國外的貨幣到蘇聯
06:27
They really needed the money.
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他們很需要這些錢
06:29
Well, you can imagine what happens. You turn off
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你可以想像會發生什麼事
06:31
the water supply to the Aral Sea, what's going to happen?
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將供給鹹海的水源關掉，會發生什麼事？
06:34
Here it is in 1973,
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在1973年
06:37
1986,
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1986年
06:39
1999,
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1999年
06:42
2004,
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2004年
06:45
and about 11 months ago.
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以及大約11個月前
06:49
It's pretty extraordinary.
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真的驚人
06:51
Now a lot of us in the audience here live in the Midwest.
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現在在場的許多觀眾住在美國的中西部
06:55
Imagine that was Lake Superior.
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想像一下，如果那是蘇必利爾湖
06:57
Imagine that was Lake Huron.
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或是休倫湖
07:01
It's an extraordinary change.
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那將會帶來異常的改變
07:02
This is not only a change in water and
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這不只是水的改變
07:05
where the shoreline is, this is a change in the fundamentals
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還有海岸線的改變
07:07
of the environment of this region.
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這是這個區域環境本質上的改變
07:09
Let's start with this.
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就從我們開始吧
07:10
The Soviet Union didn't really have a Sierra Club.
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蘇聯沒有塞拉俱樂部（美國自然環境保護團體）
07:13
Let's put it that way.
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讓我們用相同的方式來進行
07:14
So what you find in the bottom of the Aral Sea ain't pretty.
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你會發現死海的底部並不怎麼好看
07:18
There's a lot of toxic waste, a lot of things
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裡頭有很多有毒的廢棄物
07:20
that were dumped there that are now becoming airborne.
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有很多東西被棄置之後現在變成空氣粒子
07:22
One of those small islands that was remote
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那些偏僻且難以抵達的小島之一
07:24
and impossible to get to was a site
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已成為
07:26
of Soviet biological weapons testing.
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蘇聯生化武器測試的地點了
07:28
You can walk there today.
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今天你可以在那裡行走
07:30
Weather patterns have changed.
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然而氣候形態已改變
07:31
Nineteen of the unique 20 fish species found only
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在死海發現的20種珍貴的魚種當中
07:35
in the Aral Sea are now wiped off the face of the Earth.
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有19種已在地球上消失滅跡
07:38
This is an environmental disaster writ large.
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這是生態的大浩劫
07:40
But let's bring it home.
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讓我們回到美國
07:42
This is a picture that Al Gore gave me a few years ago
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這是數年前高爾給我的一張相片
07:45
that he took when he was in the Soviet Union
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他在很久很久以前
07:46
a long, long time ago,
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去蘇聯時拍的照片
07:48
showing the fishing fleets of the Aral Sea.
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可以看到有魚船隊在死海中
07:51
You see the canal they dug?
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你看到他們挖的運河了嗎？
07:53
They were so desperate to try to, kind of, float the boats into
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他們很絕望的想要試著讓船漂浮到原來的水池中
07:55
the remaining pools of water, but they finally had to give up
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但是他們終究是放棄了
07:57
because the piers and the moorings simply couldn't
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因為碼頭和近海區無法保持在
08:00
keep up with the retreating shoreline.
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不斷退移的海岸線
08:02
I don't know about you, but I'm terrified that future
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我不認識你
08:04
archaeologists will dig this up and write stories about
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但是我擔心未來考古學家會將這些東西挖出來
08:06
our time in history, and wonder, "What were you thinking?"
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然後在歷史中寫下這段故事
並且疑惑：「你們在想什麼？」
並且疑惑：「你們在想什麼？」
08:09
Well, that's the future we have to look forward to.
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那是我們要面對的未來
08:12
We already use about 50 percent of the Earth's fresh water
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我們已使用了地球上百分之五十的淡水
08:15
that's sustainable, and agriculture alone
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那是能夠維持住的
08:17
is 70 percent of that.
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而其中百分之七十就用在農業
08:20
So we use a lot of water, a lot of land for agriculture.
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我們為了農業用了很多水和土地
08:23
We also use a lot of the atmosphere for agriculture.
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我們也在農業上用了許多的大氣層
08:26
Usually when we think about the atmosphere,
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通常當我們想到大氣層
08:29
we think about climate change and greenhouse gases,
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我們會想到氣候變遷和溫室氣體
08:31
and mostly around energy,
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或者通常會和能源有關
08:33
but it turns out agriculture is one of the biggest emitters
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但結果農業反而是
08:36
of greenhouse gases too.
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產生溫室氣體最大的來源之一
08:38
If you look at carbon dioxide from
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如果你觀察燃燒的熱帶雨林
08:40
burning tropical rainforest,
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所產生的二氧化碳
08:42
or methane coming from cows and rice,
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或是牛和稻米產生的甲烷
08:45
or nitrous oxide from too many fertilizers,
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或是無數的肥料所產生的氧化亞氮
08:48
it turns out agriculture is 30 percent of the greenhouse
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結果是在人類活動裡
08:51
gases going into the atmosphere from human activity.
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農業製造了百分之三十的溫室氣體進入了大氣裡
08:54
That's more than all our transportation.
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遠多過於交通運輸工具
08:55
It's more than all our electricity.
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電器用品
08:57
It's more than all other manufacturing, in fact.
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以及其它的製造業所產出的量
09:00
It's the single largest emitter of greenhouse gases
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這是地球上人類所有的行為中
09:03
of any human activity in the world.
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唯一最大的溫室氣體產出來源
09:05
And yet, we don't talk about it very much.
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而且我們還沒有談到很多
09:08
So we have this incredible presence today of agriculture
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今天我們可以看到這個不可思議的情景
09:11
dominating our planet,
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農業主宰著我們的地球
09:13
whether it's 40 percent of our land surface,
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先不論它佔了地表百分之四十的土地
09:15
70 percent of the water we use,
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百分之七十的水
09:17
30 percent of our greenhouse gas emissions.
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百分之三十的溫室氣體
09:20
We've doubled the flows of nitrogen and phosphorus
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我們光是在肥料的使用上
09:23
around the world simply by using fertilizers,
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就製造了兩倍流量的氮和磷
09:25
causing huge problems of water quality from rivers,
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造成河流、湖、甚至是海洋水質的許多問題
09:28
lakes, and even oceans, and it's also the single biggest
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而且這也是造成生物滅絕
09:31
driver of biodiversity loss.
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最重大的因素
09:34
So without a doubt, agriculture is
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毫無疑問
09:36
the single most powerful force unleashed on this planet
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農業會是冰河期之後
09:39
since the end of the ice age. No question.
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引爆這個地球最重大的因素
毫無疑問
毫無疑問
09:42
And it rivals climate change in importance.
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農業與氣候變遷的重要性不相上下
09:45
And they're both happening at the same time.
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而且這兩件事會同時發生
09:48
But what's really important here to remember is that
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然而我們要記得最重要的是
09:50
it's not all bad. It's not that agriculture's a bad thing.
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事情並非這麼糟
農業並非一無是處
農業並非一無是處
09:54
In fact, we completely depend on it.
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事實上，我們完全仰賴它
09:56
It's not optional. It's not a luxury. It's an absolute necessity.
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這不是可有可無，也不是奢侈品
這是生活的必須品
這是生活的必須品
10:00
We have to provide food and feed and, yeah,
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我們需要提供食物、飼料、纖維質
10:02
fiber and even biofuels to something like seven billion people
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甚至是供給地球上的七十億人所需的生物燃料
10:06
in the world today, and if anything,
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未來農業的需求
10:09
we're going to have the demands on agriculture
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將會增加
10:11
increase into the future. It's not going to go away.
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這件事不會隨風而逝
10:14
It's going to get a lot bigger, mainly because of
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問題會愈來愈大
10:16
growing population. We're seven billion people today
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原因主要是人口的成長
10:19
heading towards at least nine,
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現在地球上有七十億人
10:21
probably nine and a half before we're done.
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在我們離開這個世界前將會達到九十億
甚至是九十五億人口
甚至是九十五億人口
10:24
More importantly, changing diets.
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更重要的是飲食習慣的變化
10:26
As the world becomes wealthier as well as more populous,
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如同人口數量，這個世界變得更加富有
10:29
we're seeing increases in dietary consumption of meat,
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我們發現在飲食上，肉類的消耗量增加了
10:32
which take a lot more resources than a vegetarian diet does.
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而肉類所需耗費的資源遠多於蔬菜
10:36
So more people, eating more stuff, and richer stuff,
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有愈來愈多的人、吃得更多東西、更營養的東西
10:40
and of course having an energy crisis at the same time,
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當然同時也產生了能源危機
10:43
where we have to replace oil with other energy sources
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我們需要將石油換成其它可替代的能源
10:46
that will ultimately have to include some kinds of biofuels
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能夠提供我們永續的
10:49
and bio-energy sources.
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生化燃料與可再生能源
10:51
So you put these together. It's really hard to see
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當你把這些放在一起
10:53
how we're going to get to the rest of the century
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實在很難想像我們如果沒有兩個地球來發展農業
10:56
without at least doubling global agricultural production.
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要怎麼走到下一個世紀
11:00
Well, how are we going to do this? How are going to
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我們要怎麼做呢？
11:02
double global ag production around the world?
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我們要怎麼在地球上產出兩倍的農產量？
11:05
Well, we could try to farm more land.
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嗯，我們可以試著耕種更多田地
11:08
This is an analysis we've done, where on the left is where
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這是我們做的分析
11:10
the crops are today, on the right is where they could be
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左邊是目前生產的穀量
11:14
based on soils and climate, assuming climate change
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右邊則是依據土質與氣候預估的產量
11:17
doesn't disrupt too much of this,
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誇大氣候變遷並不會粉飾此事
11:19
which is not a good assumption.
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而且那也不是一個好方法
11:20
We could farm more land, but the problem is
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我們可以開墾更多的土地
11:23
the remaining lands are in sensitive areas.
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但問題是現在剩下的土地處在敏感的區域
11:26
They have a lot of biodiversity, a lot of carbon,
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這些地方具有很高的生物多樣性
11:28
things we want to protect.
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有大量碳和許多我們想要保護的物種
11:30
So we could grow more food by expanding farmland,
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因此我們可透過擴展農地來種植更多的食物
11:33
but we'd better not,
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不過最好不要這麼做
11:34
because it's ecologically a very, very dangerous thing to do.
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因為在生態意義上這是非常非常危險的事
11:38
Instead, we maybe want to freeze the footprint
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相反地，也許我們會希望農業產生的碳足跡可以停止攀升
11:40
of agriculture and farm the lands we have better.
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並且可以在更好的土地上耕種
11:44
This is work that we're doing to try to highlight places
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我們目前試著在不傷害環境的前提下
11:46
in the world where we could improve yields
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標示出地球各地
11:49
without harming the environment.
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能夠增加產量的地區
11:51
The green areas here show where corn yields,
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以玉米為例
11:54
just showing corn as an example,
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綠色顯示了目前產量就很高的區域
11:56
are already really high, probably the maximum you could
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也許是你在地球上所能找到的
11:58
find on Earth today for that climate and soil,
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最佳氣候和土質
12:01
but the brown areas and yellow areas are places where
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而褐色和黃色的部份則是
12:04
we're only getting maybe 20 or 30 percent of the yield
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僅能有百分之二十到三十
12:06
you should be able to get.
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的產量
12:08
You see a lot of this in Africa, even Latin America,
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你會發現大部份是在非洲，甚至是拉丁美洲
12:10
but interestingly, Eastern Europe, where Soviet Union
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但是有趣的是
12:13
and Eastern Bloc countries used to be,
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過去曾是蘇聯與東歐社會主義國家所在的東歐
12:15
is still a mess agriculturally.
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至今農產仍十分困乏
12:17
Now, this would require nutrients and water.
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現在則需要養份和水
12:20
It's going to either be organic or conventional
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這需要透過以有機或是傳統的耕種方式
12:22
or some mix of the two to deliver that.
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又或是兩者混合來輸送養份和水
12:24
Plants need water and nutrients.
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作物需要水和養份
12:26
But we can do this, and there are opportunities to make this work.
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我們做得到，而且也有機會能夠成功
12:29
But we have to do it in a way that is sensitive
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但是我們需要以一種能夠
12:31
to meeting the food security needs of the future
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確保未來食物不會匱乏
12:34
and the environmental security needs of the future.
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而且也能達到環境安全的方式來進行
12:37
We have to figure out how to make this tradeoff between
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我們需要找出一個權衡之計
12:40
growing food and having a healthy environment work better.
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來兼顧食物供給的需求與健康的生活環境
12:44
Right now, it's kind of an all-or-nothing proposition.
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現在我們面臨了不容妥協的情況
12:47
We can grow food in the background --
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1962
我們可以種植作物
12:49
that's a soybean field —
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－－這是黃豆田－－
12:50
and in this flower diagram, it shows we grow a lot of food,
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在這朵花型圖表中，顯示了我們種植了很多作物
12:53
but we don't have a lot clean water, we're not storing
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但是我們沒有很多乾淨的水
12:56
a lot of carbon, we don't have a lot of biodiversity.
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我們沒有儲存許多碳，也沒有生物多樣的環境
12:59
In the foreground, we have this prairie
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以環保的角度來看
13:01
that's wonderful from the environmental side,
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我們能擁有這片草原是很好的事
13:02
but you can't eat anything. What's there to eat?
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但是你不能靠此填飽肚子
13:05
We need to figure out how to bring both of those together
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我們需要找到一個兩全其美的新農耕方式
13:08
into a new kind of agriculture that brings them all together.
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來同時滿足這兩種需求
13:12
Now, when I talk about this, people often tell me,
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現在，當我提到這件事時，大家都會跟我說：
13:14
"Well, isn't blank the answer?" -- organic food,
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「不是有甚麼甚麼了嗎？」
13:17
local food, GMOs, new trade subsidies, new farm bills --
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包含－－有機食物、在地食材、基因改造生物、
新的農田法案…等等－－
新的農田法案…等等－－
13:22
and yeah, we have a lot of good ideas here,
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我們有很多好的方法
13:25
but not any one of these is a silver bullet.
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但是沒有任何一個是銀色子彈
（能面面俱到的完美方案）
（能面面俱到的完美方案）
13:28
In fact, what I think they are is more like silver buckshot.
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事實上，我想要的是銀色獵槍彈
13:31
And I love silver buckshot. You put it together
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我愛銀色獵槍彈
13:34
and you've got something really powerful,
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你把所有的東西放在一起之後
就會得到很強大的力量
就會得到很強大的力量
13:36
but we need to put them together.
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但前提是我們得要把它們都放在一起
13:38
So what we have to do, I think, is invent a new kind
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所以我們需要做的是
13:41
of agriculture that blends the best ideas
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發明一種新的農耕方式
13:43
of commercial agriculture and the green revolution
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能夠同時滿足經濟農業和綠色革命
13:47
with the best ideas of organic farming and local food
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3552
以有機農業和在地食材的最佳方式
13:50
and the best ideas of environmental conservation,
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並且結合環境保護的理念
13:54
not to have them fighting each other but to have them
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不需要讓這些好的理念相互廝殺
13:55
collaborating together to form a new kind of agriculture,
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而是可以互相合作來發展出一項新的農業
13:59
something I call "terraculture," or farming for a whole planet.
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我稱它為「地球耕育」（terraculture）
或是為全星球耕種
或是為全星球耕種
14:04
Now, having this conversation has been really hard,
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現在要進行這樣的溝通非常困難
14:07
and we've been trying very hard to bring these key points
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我們已非常努力地將這些理念帶給大家
14:09
to people to reduce the controversy,
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減少爭議
14:11
to increase the collaboration.
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並且讓大家增加合作的意願
14:13
I want to show you a short video that does kind of show
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我想放一段短片
14:15
our efforts right now to bring these sides together
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能夠讓你了解我們正在做的努力
14:18
into a single conversation. So let me show you that.
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讓各方能夠相互對話
請看影片
請看影片
14:21
(Music)
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（音樂）
14:25
("Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota: Driven to Discover")
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（美國明尼蘇達州的環保團體與大學：「起身去發掘」）
14:29
(Music)
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（音樂）
14:30
("The world population is growing
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（「世界人口逐日增加
14:32
by 75 million people each year.
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每年成長七千五百萬人
14:35
That's almost the size of Germany.
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幾乎等同於德國的人口
14:37
Today, we're nearing 7 billion people.
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地球即將達到七十億人口
14:40
At this rate, we'll reach 9 billion people by 2040.
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以這樣的比例，我們將在2040年達到九十億人
14:43
And we all need food.
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每個人都需要食物
14:45
But how?
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但是食物要從何而來？
14:46
How do we feed a growing world without destroying the planet?
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我們要如何能餵飽這個逐日成長的地球而不破壞它？
14:49
We already know climate change is a big problem.
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我們已經知道氣候變遷是很大的問題
14:52
But it's not the only problem.
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但是那並不是唯一的問題
14:53
We need to face 'the other inconvenient truth.'
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我們需要面對「另一個不願面對的真相」
14:56
A global crisis in agriculture.
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全球正面臨了農業危機
14:59
Population growth + meat consumption + dairy consumption + energy costs + bioenergy production = stress on natural resources.
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人口成長 + 肉類消耗 + 乳類消耗 + 能源耗損
+ 生質能源製造 = 自然資源的壓力
+ 生質能源製造 = 自然資源的壓力
15:05
More than 40% of Earth's land has been cleared for agriculture.
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地球上超過百分之四十的土地已開發為農地
15:08
Global croplands cover 16 million km².
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全球的農田超過一千六百萬平方公里
15:10
That's almost the size of South America.
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幾乎是南美洲的大小
15:14
Global pastures cover 30 million km².
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全球的牧地超過三千萬平方公里
15:15
That's the size of Africa.
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幾乎和非洲一樣大
15:18
Agriculture uses 60 times more land than urban and suburban areas combined.
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農業所使用的土地是
都市加上郊區總面積的六十倍
都市加上郊區總面積的六十倍
15:22
Irrigation is the biggest use of water on the planet.
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灌溉所需的水則是最大量的
15:26
We use 2,800 cubic kilometers of water on crops every year.
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每年用在灌溉農田的水要兩千八百立方公里
15:30
That's enough to fill 7,305 Empire State Buildings every day.
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這些水足夠用來每天裝滿7305棟帝國大廈
15:34
Today, many large rivers have reduced flows.
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近年來有許多大型河流的流量大幅減少
15:37
Some dry up altogether.
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有的甚至早已乾涸
15:39
Look at the Aral Sea, now turned to desert.
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看看死海，現在已變成沙漠
15:43
Or the Colorado River, which no longer flows to the ocean.
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科羅納多河也不再流向大海
15:47
Fertilizers have more than doubled the phosphorus and nitrogen in the environment.
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肥料使得環境中磷和氮的含量超過兩倍
15:51
The consequence?
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結果呢？
15:52
Widespread water pollution
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造成了大範圍的水污染
15:54
and massive degradation of lakes and rivers.
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以及湖水及河水大量惡化
15:56
Surprisingly, agriculture is the biggest contributor to climate change.
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令人驚訝的是，農業是氣候變遷的最大原因
16:00
It generates 30% of greenhouse gas emissions.
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有百分之三十的溫室氣體由其產生
16:03
That's more than the emissions from all electricity and industry,
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遠超過所有電力、工業
16:06
or from all the world's planes, trains and automobiles.
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或是全世界的飛機、火車和汽車
所排放的氣體
所排放的氣體
16:09
Most agricultural emissions come from tropical deforestation,
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大部份的農業排放氣體來自熱帶的山林砍伐
16:11
methane from animals and rice fields,
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動物和稻田產生的甲烷
16:12
and nitrous oxide from over-fertilizing.
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以及過度施肥所產生的一氧化氮
16:14
There is nothing we do that transforms the world more than agriculture.
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農業是改變世界最大的因素
16:17
And there's nothing we do that is more crucial to our survival.
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我們的決定將會是影響生存的關鍵
16:21
Here's the dilemma...
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這是讓人左右為難的窘境…
16:22
As the world grows by several billion more people,
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隨著世界人口即將超過七十傹人
16:27
We'll need to double, maybe even triple, global food production.
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我們將需要兩到三倍的食物產量
16:31
So where do we go from here?
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我們將何去何從？
16:33
We need a bigger conversation, an international dialogue.
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我們需要更大規模、全球性的對話
16:36
We need to invest in real solutions:
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我們需要找出真正能夠解決的辦法：
16:37
incentives for farmers, precision agriculture, new crop varieties, drip irrigation,
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提供農民誘因、精緻農業、新的穀物種類、滴灌
16:42
gray water recycling, better tillage practices, smarter diets.
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灰水回收利用、改善耕地流程、更聰明的飲食習慣
16:45
We need everyone at the table.
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我們需要每個人都共同參與
16:48
Advocates of commercial agriculture,
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提倡商業性農業
16:49
environmental conservation,
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環境保護
16:51
and organic farming...
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以及有機耕種…等等
16:52
must work together.
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有許多工作需要一起進行
16:54
There is no single solution.
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但是沒有單一的解決方法
16:56
We need collaboration,
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我們應該要合作
16:57
imagination,
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想像力
16:59
determination,
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決心
17:00
because failure is not an option.
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因為失敗不是選項之一
17:03
How do we feed the world without destroying it?
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我們要如何供給全世界食物而不破壞地球？
17:07
Yeah, so we face one of the greatest grand challenges
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是的，我們正面臨人類史上
17:10
in all of human history today:
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最大的挑戰：
17:12
the need to feed nine billion people
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找到能夠長期穩定、公平、公正的方式
17:15
and do so sustainably and equitably and justly,
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來滿足九十億人的食物需求
17:18
at the same time protecting our planet
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同時也為我們以及下一代
17:20
for this and future generations.
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保護這個地球
17:23
This is going to be one of the hardest things
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這將會是人類史上
17:24
we ever have done in human history,
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最難完成的事情之一
17:26
and we absolutely have to get it right,
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我們絕對要做得正確
17:29
and we have to get it right on our first and only try.
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僅此一次，不許失敗
17:34
So thanks very much. (Applause)
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謝謝！（鼓掌）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Jonathan Foley - ProfessorJonathan Foley studies complex environmental systems and their affects on society. His computer models have shown the deep impact agriculture is having on our planet.
Why you should listen
Dr. Jonathan Foley focusses on the complex relationship between global environmental systems and human civilization, using computer models to analyze changes in land use, ecosystems and resources around the world. After 15 years at the University of Wisconsin, Foley is now a professor and McKnight Presidential Chair in the Department of Ecology and director of the Institute on the Environment at the University of Minnesota.
Jonathan Foley | Speaker | TED.com